I'm not someone in the dump Boozer camp, but Blogabull poster bryield brought up Carlos Boozer's friendship with Dwight Howard recently.   There's been a fair bit written about that friendship in the past perhaps most credibly by the Orlando Magic's version of Sam Smith, John Denton.  While Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh were bonding during the 2008 Olympics so too were Dwight Howard and Carlos Boozer apparently.

I have never thought much about it in the past, but this time I was slightly intrigued.  Orlando may be desperate enough to actually deal with a rival team this time around.  If Orlando is feeling similarly to how Cleveland felt before dealing for Antwan Jamison then there may be a somewhat intriguing option.  And Orlando certainly has shown a willingness to reshuffle the deck in hopes of getting lucky.  Nothing is going to be a slam dunk type move, but there may be some lateral trades available that potentially offer a slightly better roster fit than keeping Boozer.  

(I also believe there is an almost zero chance that Dwight Howard ends up in Chicago even if his buddy Carlos Boozer is in Chicago.  None of the conditions for making that kind of trade happen really exist.  It doesn't matter if the Bulls can make the best offer in that situation.  Orlando making a lateral type of trade to try and appease their superstar is completely different from actually trading their superstar.)

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I figured I would propose a simple that the Bulls actually should be able to agree to in principle by the draft.  A trade that does not rely on a team deciding to trade their best player or a team deciding to trade a player with potential that they don't really have any reason to trade.  I suggest bringing Blogabull favorite Captain Kirk Hinrich back home.  Sending Watson and Korver to Atlanta for Hinrich is basically a wash in terms of contracts because Watson and Korver's third years are not guaranteed.  And assuming that Atlanta now wants to give Teague a chance as the starting point and that Jamal Crawford will not be resigned given the Hawk's contract situation, Atlanta could really use the increased depth from this trade.  The Hawks should benefit by being able to get more minutes out of both Watson and Korver than the Bulls could and more than Hinrich could play by himself.  This trade cannot become official until the new NBA business year begins, but because the money is basically the same the trade will work no matter what the new CBA ends up being so the teams can easily agree in principle to the deal prior to the draft.  There is no reason the Bulls and Hawks should not be able to work something out along those basic lines.

So why should the Bulls want your friendly Bulls Blogger's favorite punching bag back?  On the charitable side it would free longtime quality Blogabull poster wjb1492 from contemplating the future of the Atlanta Hawks.  On the sadistic side I think I would get a kick out of this blog's founder having to deal with the return of the personification of every Bulls front office cliché.  And because it is a simple achievable move to help this team win playoff games.  I was never a fan of trading Hinrich, but I understood taking the risk.  Now that the 2010 free agent year has came and went the Bulls might as well bring John Paxson's adopted son back for a number of reasons I will try to articulate.  

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If women's basketball needed a showcase game this UConn at Notre Dame on Saturday afternoon was it.  

A game on broadcast television, a game in front of a sold out crowd even if a blizzard kept a few of the paid seats empty, a game with over one hundred fifty combined points, and a back and forth game that came down to the final possession.  This time CBS got the game they were hoping for.  

Part of it is that Notre Dame is a model women's basketball program when it comes to building a fan base.

The program has been successful on the court.  The program has been consistently good for a long period of time and had its moments of greatness, winning a national championship a decade ago in a dream season and getting to another Final Four a few years earlier, although they haven't reached the heights of the superpowers of women's basketball Tennessee and UConn.  And because they share the Big East conference with UConn the chances of winning conference championships are slim.  

Yet without being a super power Notre Dame has still built a fan base that places it among the nation's leaders in attendance through a long standing quality product, outreach, and high production values.  Purcell Pavilion was a great stage for this game, an environment as challenging as what UConn faced against Stanford, and Notre Dame ahd every reason to believe a similar outcome was possible.  While Notre Dame coach Muffet McGraw has only four wins against UConn, three have come in a year where UConn went to the Final Four.  She knows how to make UConn's life difficult.

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Barely a week after losing the 2010 National Championship game to the University of Connecticut last April, Stanford's Nneka Ogwumike and Kayla Pedersen found themselves in what might seem like a somewhat surreal situation.

The Cardinal stars suddenly found themselves practicing on UConn's home floor with UConn head coach Geno Auriemma as well the UConn assistant coaches Chris Dailey, Shea Ralph, and Marisa Moseley coaching them as members of a USA Select team of college players created to scrimmage against the USA National team in preparation for the World Championships.

But it was hardly the first time that USA Basketball has brought current members of two of the nation's top programs together.

Stanford's Kayla Pedersen and UConn's Maya Moore have spent three summers as teammates playing for USA Basketball.  The senior forwards were members of a U-18 team in 2006, followed by a U-19 team, and then they were joined on a World University Games team by Stanford guard Jeanette Pohlen and UConn guard Tiffany Hayes in the summer of 2009.  

And that is just the beginning of USA Basketball bringing the Stanford and UConn players together.  

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Now we've seen the University of Connecticut take on a team ranked second in the country in Baylor, a team everyone agrees is a serious national championship contender because of the presence of 6'8" center Brittney Griner.  

And if Baylor is a serious national championship contender this season as one would expect of a team with a great player and nearly everyone returning from last season's Final Four team then the outcome of last night's game is exactly what should be expected from UConn this season: a game whose outcome was basically decided by a coin flip.  

It was an outcome that was fairly representative of the strength of the two teams with neither team playing particularly well or particularly poorly with each team struggling in different areas.  

This is the place UConn finds itself in this season.

That may actually surprise some people.

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The University of Connecticut will begin the defense of their two consecutive undefeated national championships today against Holy Cross with a roster of only ten players this season.  Only five of those ten were on last season's team.  Only three of those five were in the rotation for last spring's Final Four.  And only two of those three started even a single game for UConn last season, but luckily for UConn one of those two players is one of the best players in college basketball history, Maya Moore.  

If it is possible for a player that will likely finish her college career as the most decorated player in women's college basketball history to be under appreciated, Maya Moore may indeed be that.  Lots of time was spent by fans and media alike formulating arguments about why first Renee Montgomery and then Tina Charles was the most important UConn player, but Moore has been the real engine at the heart of the UConn machine over the last three seasons.  Moore's competitive drive and consistency of work ethic is the reason a team can win 78 games without the outcome of a single game ever being in serious doubt in the final minutes.  Moore's individual drive to chase perfection carried the team along with her.  This season is a different kind of challenge with UConn likely to remain near the top of the food chain, but not necessarily as the apex predator.

UConn is still very talented with every member of what looks like the seven player rotation a former McDonald's All-American.  They can still blitz teams with the speed and precision of the offense attacking in transition.  They can still harass teams with their experienced perimeter defenders.  They can still break down defenses with their passing and cutting.  Maya Moore individually consistently impacts every area of the game in a way that no one else in college basketball does, and she can probably get this team to the Elite Eight by herself.   Going farther will take good health and her teammates coming through for her.  

There will be more on Moore and what to expect from UConn this season on Tuesday before the game with Baylor, but here's a look at what to expect from the other nine players on the roster.

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I thought during the college off season I should share a bit from the statistics archive I've created over the last several years.  After some playing around with internet archives I was able to extend my archive of complete UConn statistics back another three seasons through the 1997-1998 season during the last couple of months.  This will also hopefully help people understand what some of these statistics do and how they work.

The topic today is the career offensive efficiency of Connecticut players. This will only include players that finished their senior season at UConn and began playing in college in the fall of 1997 or later.  I also included Maya Moore and Lorin Dixon as their career statitical rates are pretty well established.  Moore is already just outside the top ten in school history in minutes played. 

These statistics are descriptive. They are not meant to be a ranking of the most valuable or best players.  Value in sports changes depending on context.  What these statistics do is help you to put what's going on out on the court into perspective in a more descriptive way than simply looking at players' per game statistics.  These formulas adjust box score statistics in a way that makes more accurate comparisons possible.  The chart is below, but for a better chart that can be sorted  by the various categories through clicking on the tabs go to this link.  Definitions and some analysis are below, and these statistics for WNBA players can be found at basketball-reference.com.

Career Offensive Efficiency: 97-98 through 09-10

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The two teams that exchanged a handful of players and draft picks in two separate trades this offseason found themselves in a similar situation to begin the season.  

Besides the blockbuster trade that was effectively an exchange of Lindsay Whalen and Monica Wright for Tina Charles and Renee Montgomery both teams were able to raid the roster of the folded Sacramento Monarchs.  Each team adding a post player through the dispersal draft and a perimeter player through free agency.  And by the end of the 2010 draft both teams had effectively declared that they would make the playoffs this season at a minimum.

A franchise already under significant pressure to make the playoffs for the first time since 2004 passed up a chance to fortify their roster by trading the third overall pick of the draft to the Connecticut Sun for their 2011 first and second pick and signaled that they had all the talent that they needed in the additions of Lindsay Whalen, Rebekkah Brunson, Hamechetou Maiga-Ba, and Monica Wright.  It was a relatively bold move that has the flavor of a franchise that has just been incredibly fortunate pushing their luck. 

This may end up looking similarly to the Detroit Pistons reaching for the stars by drafting Darko Milic when they lucked into the second overall draft pick instead of taking a safer choice and fortifying a playoff team.  Actually both teams in that trade are looking like they were a little too smart for their own good.  On the other end of the trade the Connecticut Sun, who had just missed the playoffs for the first time since the franchise relocated from Orlando, signaled that nothing less than making the playoffs would be acceptable even though they could have easily sold the 2010 season as a rebuilding year.  

Offseason optimism quickly met the realities of the WNBA season for both teams as they would each face the first few weeks of the season without key players. The Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx were both faced with surviving those first few weeks well enough that the goal of making the playoffs wasn't out of reach before the roster that created those expectations ever saw the floor. 

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The Seattle Storm fought valiantly in last season's playoffs last season despite being over matched, but in the end it was just another first round playoff loss, the fifth consecutive first round loss since winning their championship in 2004.

The combination of Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird for even the majority of the regular season will get just about any team in the playoffs, but those Storm teams haven't reached the playoffs in a position to be successful.  The team hasn't really been able to put together players that fit with Bird and Jackson or the necessary depth at key positions since the stars aligned in 2004.  This season there are more reasons to hope that the stars can align again.

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Outside of the serious championship contenders is there a team that has created higher expectations than the Connecticut Sun? The team signaled playoffs or bust by giving up their chance at a golden ticket in the 2011 draft by trading for Kelsey Griffin, the third pick in the 2010 draft. 

The Sun management should understand the odds of gambling better than anybody and the odds are on their side, but the recent misfortune of the New York Liberty does strongly skew the perception of this type of move.  It’s hard not to think of the worst case scenario in a competitive league where any team is capable of missing the playoffs with a single key injury. And the new rebuilt Sun roster also lends itself to a focus on limitations, rather than potential. 

It’s easier to fantasize about the perimeter talent now assembled in Chicago around Slyvia Fowles, what a superstar like Cappie Pondexter can do in New York, the benefit of all that size and athleticism in Atlanta or what all those ACC athletes in Washington can achieve even without Alana Beard. However, at a time when potential rules the imagination, the Sun may not capture that imagination.

The Sun have clearly visible limitations. 

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The defending WNBA champions return seven of the nine rotation players from their playoff run last season and their fast paced style will obviously be returning as well, but the Mercury will obviously be a different team without Cappie Pondexter and to an extent Le'coe Willingham as well.  How different?  Probably not fundamentally different given the returning players and the well defined system of play, but noticeably different with the changes and shifting of roles.

The Mercury are still going to be an offensive juggernaut like their NBA counterpart in Phoenix, but something will be undoubtedly lost from the Mercury's transition game without Cappie Pondexter.  Pondexter led the league by a wide margin in fast break points scored and also led the league in assists on the fast break.  A full 20% of her points and assists came on the fast break, and no one will be able to replicate that on this year's roster.  The team will also particularly miss being able to slide Pondexter to the point in half court situations where Tameka Johnson was less effective particularly in the playoffs.  That move also allowed the Mercury to put their five best scorers on the floor something that may not be possible this season.

Still most of what makes the Mercury a great offensive team remains even though they no longer have two players in Pondexter and Willingham that combined to score nearly a third of the team's points last season. Diana Taurasi's individual brilliance remains, but her shift back to shooting guard will likely mean an increase in her playmaking role after being able to concentrate more narrowly on scoring these last few seasons.  Passing isn't exactly a burden for Taurasi, but it is a shifting of roles.  A healthy Penny Taylor is a complete and very efficient offensive player, which is what the Mercury will hopefully have on the wing for a full season this year.  Tangela Smith will still be able to open up the floor with her long range shooting from the center position.  Temeka Johnson needs to prove that last season wasn't a fluke, particularly her shooting, but she can keep the Mercury offense in gear.  The team expects more from DeWanna Bonner in her second season mostly in her terms of minutes on offense, but also an expanded role on defense.  Last season Bonner was among the most efficient offensive players by playing her role as an athletic front court finisher very well and reaping the rewards of the defensive attention draw by Taurasi and Pondexter.  Of the seven key returning players those are the five that were integral to the Mercury's record setting offense last season.

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UConn returned to McGrath Arena for the first time since one of the more memorable finishes in UConn history in 2008.

Behind 27 points from senior guard Allie Quigley and 19 points from sophomore guard Deirdre Naughton, DePaul had opened a double digit lead going into halftime and led by as many as seventeen points in the second half.  UConn battled back and point guard Renee Montgomery had a chance tie the game or put UConn ahead with 14 seconds left.  Montgomery instead missed two of three free throw attempts and the rebound on her final shot bounced long into the arms of a DePaul guard with a clear path to the basket and her team headed toward an upset of #1 Connecticut. 

Instead Maya Moore chased DePaul's Missy Mitidero down from behind, poked the ball free, and called timeout with seven seconds left after gaining position of the ball.   After the timeout UConn's Ketia Swanier dribbled the ball the length of the court and made a layup with 1.6 seconds left.  A play that gave UConn their first lead since the nine minute mark of the first half and sealed a 77 to 76 victory for UConn. 

Not surprisingly, there was no need for similar last second heroics by UConn on Wednesday night. 

DePaul is one of the few teams that will still look to push tempo against UConn and one of an even smaller group of teams that does so with any effectiveness.  Wednesday night DePaul got behind UConn by ten points five minutes into the first half, but stayed in the game until the final minutes of the first half by making shots and not letting UConn open up one of their typical long runs.  DePaul's grip on the game started to loosen at the end of the half and then what DePaul coach Doug Bruno called a "disaster" happened.

Maya Moore dropped in a three with less than thirty seconds left in the half to extend the UConn lead to seventeen.  UConn got the ball back with eight seconds left and when Tiffany Hayes finally figured out that her teammates were yelling at her to shoot because the clock was running down, Hayes calmly launched a rainbow three from thirty feet out that swished through the net.  After battling all half and making 48% of their shots DePaul went into the half down twenty points.

Hayes opened the second half scoring with another three and as usual UConn pushed the lead to thirty within the first few minutes of the second half behind eight quick points from Tina Charles.  DePaul joined Stanford as the only teams to score sixty points against UConn this season and the only teams to shoot better than 40% against UConn this season.  Despite shooting 46% against UConn DePaul only scored 62 points against UConn because of 25 turnovers.  Defensively DePaul was aggressive and would hold UConn to an uncharacteristic seventeen assists on thirty-seven field goals, but couldn't stop UConn from making shots.  DePaul would allow 95 points as the UConn players put the ball on the floor and penetrated to the basket.

DePaul came into the season with expectations for a very strong season.  They returned four starters and some key players off the bench, but all three seniors on the roster have suffered season ending injuries including guards Deirde Naughton who led DePaul in scoring and assists last season and China Threatt who won the Big East's Sixth Man of the Year award last season.  Those injuries have left Allie Quigley's younger sister Sam as DePaul's only experienced guard.  The junior point guard has averaged over 38 minutes per game this season including over 40 minutes per game in Big East games.

Quigley, DePaul's leader in scoring and assists this season, led DePaul with fifteen points and five assists in 40 minutes against UConn.  Her ability to step up and shoulder that load has been the key to DePaul remaining in contention for an NCAA tournament bid in spite of season ending ACL injuries to Naughton and Threatt.  The road to the NCAA tournament does not get any easier for DePaul.  On Sunday they play at Notre Dame in a game that will be televised on ESPN2.

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I figured there might still be some interest in this.  If people really want the splits from the previous months I'll put them together.

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Today's game between Notre Dame and undefeated UConn will be the most heavily promoted regular season game in women's college basketball history thanks to the ESPN Game Day crew paying a visit to Storrs. 

Unlike so many other analysts, at the very least Dick Vitale will maintain his energy and enthusiasm even if UConn once again wins by a large margin.  And it will also be a reminder of the days when Jay Bilas worked women's NCAA tournament games.  His description of UConn going back door time and time again in the 2000 National Championship game especially sticks out as it ends up in all the highlight videos of that team.

Notre Dame comes into this game with the expectation that they are one of the few teams that could beat UConn.  Before the season began the Big East subtly indicated the expectation level for Notre Dame by scheduling two regular season games between UConn and Notre Dame.  The reasons for those expectations were pretty clear. 

Notre Dame returned all the key players that came within ten points of UConn last season.  They also added two key players that were injured for that game in guard Brittany Mallory and post Devereaux Peters.  And most of all, they added a needed dynamic scorer in freshman guard in Skyler Diggins.  For their part Notre Dame has lived up to those expectations by coming into this game undefeated and clearly better than a season ago.

However, UConn also became a better team than they were a season ago.  The road map for UConn to improve was nowhere as clear as was it for Notre Dame. 

UConn was losing an All-American point guard and team leader in Renee Montgomery.  Certainly UConn being just as good or even better this season was a realistic possibility if all the key players were healthy. Caroline Doty's strong return from her ACL injury helped minimize the negative impact of Montgomery's graduation on UConn's offense, as predicted before the season. 

And UConn's defensive improvement was expected, but the magnitude of that improvement has been a surprise.  The defense improved to the point that UConn head coach Geno Auriemma has said several times that he can not explain it when asked why the team has been so good on defense this season.

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The University of Connecticut's last two games were against the best of the America East conference.  

Although it's a conference that usually only gets its conference tournament winner into the NCAA tournament, both Vermont and Hartford began the season by knocking off a couple of major conference teams.   And both teams are hoping those early season wins will be enough to get the runner-up in the conference tournament an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament.

However, although the two teams are from the same conference, they play contrasting styles:  while Vermont is built around senior guards Courtnay Pilypaitis and May Kotsopoulos, Hartford is built around senior posts Erica Beverley and Diana Delva. 

Vermont was in a better position to have offensive success against UConn with their big senior guards versus Hartford's undersized post players, but Hartford did the better job of defense limiting UConn to only 6 fast break points compared to the 32 allowed by Vermont.  

Pilypaits played a bit like her favorite player Diana Taurasi did in her last seasons at UConn.  She was both Vermont's primary scorer and playmaker as well as the team's strongest and most physical defender.  And she was the one Vermont player able to overcome the UConn defense, scoring 20 of Vermont's 42 points.   

For Hartford, early foul trouble kept Delva off the floor for most of the first half, but she did score a solid 13 points in the game.  Beverley became Hartford's all-time leading rebounder in the game and UConn's Maya Moore commended her physical play after the game, but she only managed 5 points against UConn.  

Ultimately, the styles may have been different, but both teams found similar results on the scoreboard.  Vermont lost to UConn 42-84 and Hartford lost 35-80.  However all three teams played the games concerned about improving as a team, rather than leaving the game with a win or a loss.

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In a struggling economy, even the University of Connecticut women’s basketball team stayed home for the holidays.

With the University of Connecticut not hosting NCAA tournament games this season and head coach Geno Auriemma serving as president of the Women’s Basketball Coaches Association, the Huskies stayed home for Thanksgiving weekend and hosted the WBCA Classic.

Although Hofstra University, University of Richmond, Clemson University accepted invitations to spend the staycation with UConn, they might not have had pleasant experiences on the court: the Huskies won each of their games by at least 39 points. However, despite the wide margin of victory, the players an coaches weren’t content with the way they played in two of the games.

So how did these three games benefit UConn?

It was a chance to continue to build a new team identity. 

Since the beginning of the season, the players have talked about finding that new team identity. 

Last season, the team identity was built around point guard Renee Montgomery to such an extent that despite returning every other major contributor their identity is still developing. Auriemma willingly channeled all the aspirations of the team into simply getting Renee Montgomery a championship.  "Win one for Renee" wasn't quite "We have Diana and you don't," however last season’s team didn't need that kind of protection from its captain and Montgomery wasn't built to carry the same load in the same way as Taurasi. 

The sequel to "We have Diana and you don't" was "We're UConn and you're not" the following season.  In 2009, the team is still working to define the legacy of the next era. At least for UConn it's far too early in the season for identity defining rally cries, but last week featured the continuation of several early season trends that will likely help define this season's team.

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After three regular season games, at the very least UConn has done nothing to indicate that its unanimous #1 ranking was undeserved.

After a brief championship banner unveiling without much pomp or circumstance, UConn opened their first game against Northeastern with a 28-0 run over the first five and a half minutes of the game, the first 22 points of which were scored before Maya Moore even took a shot.  There are few ways to get create a run like that, and this was the kind of execution that's admirable against any opponent, with Northeastern only committing three turnovers during that stretch.  Any fight Northeastern may have had was extinguished in those first five minutes, and UConn cruised to a school record 69 points at the half even though the team had already gone into their "work on the halfcourt offense and keep the score down" mode. 

The second game -- a trip to San Antonio to play ranked Texas and promote this spring's Final Four -- had the feel of last season's NCAA tournament games. With it's size and athleticism, Texas made the game difficult for UConn at times with the help of some UConn foul trouble, but there was no way that they could match UConn's level of play over 40 minutes. 

All-American center Tina Charles played only 8 minutes, starting guard Tiffany Hayes played only 7 minutes, and backup center Kaili McLaren played only 5 minutes in the first half because of fouls.  Despite playing without a true post player for over seven minutes of the last ten minutes of the first half, UConn still managed to increase its lead from 16 points to 21 points at the half. 

With the starters back in the second half, Texas had no chance of narrowing that lead.  It may have been a perfect early season game from the UConn coaches' perspective.  They got a chance to see the team overcome some adversity with a solid win, but they still had plenty of mistakes to complain about in practice. 

Friday's annual game against Holy Cross began slowly offensively.  Unlike Northeastern, the Holy Cross coaches and players had the benefit of playing UConn every year and that familiarity at least gives them a chance not to be overwhelmed right from the tip. 

Holy Cross managed to keep UConn in the halfcourt over most of the first five minutes, and the UConn players seemed unsure of what they wanted to execute.  UConn coach Geno Auriemma put on a press to speed up the game and a few forced turnovers and transition baskets resulted in Maya Moore and the rest of the team finding their groove.  The bench players played almost exclusively during the last fourteen minutes of the game, and carried themselves well, overcoming their more limited scoring skills with crisp passing.  The off the court highlight of the night though may have been Maya Moore candidly reacting with excitement to be on the jumbotron screen while sitting on the bench late in the game.  When asked about it after the game the National Player of the Year reminded everyone that, "Yep, were still kids."

So after three games, one against an opponent ranked in the top 15 by both the AP and the coaches, and an average margin of victory of only a tick under fifty points per game,  what can be said about this UConn team? 

It's too early to draw many conclusions  The real test for this team is on December 23rd against Stanford.  The heart of UConn's out of conference schedule - Stanford, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, and Oklahoma - doesn't begin until that game with Stanford.  There may come a point where the grind of the Big East regular season mixed with those out of conference games wears the team down.  But, there are a few observations that can be taken away from these three games.

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The 2009 National Championship banner will be unveiled this afternoon, and all but one of the UConn players that played minutes in competitive situations last season will be in uniform again. 

That of course includes the 2009 National Player of the Year Maya Moore as well as Tina Charles -- the All-American center and Final Four Most Outstanding Player -- who will be there after a summer leading the World University Games team in scoring and a few weeks playing with the Senior National Team this fall. 

Their two All-Americans return along with Kalana Greene, Tiffany Hayes, Kaili McLaren, Caroline Doty, Meghan Gardler, and Lorin Dixon, eight of the nine players that played rotation minutes during an undefeated season.  However, the one missing player is of course Renee Montgomery -- a player that led the team, handled the ball, and took the shot when the offense broke down for four years. 

While filling in the hole Renee Montgomery leaves behind both as a leader and a point guard is a challenge UConn coach Geno Auriemma would gladly do without, it's also a challenge that will largely define this season.  

Will arguably the most talented frontcourt in the nation be derailed by it's backcourt?  Who among Lorin Dixon, Caroline Doty, Kelly Faris or Tiffany Hayes, emerge as the point guard?  Or will it be a season with players being forced into the position of lead ballhandler without ever really claiming it?

The way the backcourt situation evolves will keep most fans' interest even as the UConn Huskies simply overwhelm most of their opponents this season.

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The WNBA crossed an important milestone this season: it was the first time the league averaged more than 1 point per possession. 

After being fairly flat for several years, the WNBA had it's most efficient offensive season.  Below is chart showing league averages for Points/100 Possessions (A measure of how efficiently teams score), Pace (The number of possessions per team each game), and Pts/G (Which is the result of efficiency multiplied by opportunity: pts/possXposs/g).  As you can see the league scoring dramatically increased in 2006, but that increase came almost entirely from the increased possessions per game due to the change to the 24 second shot clock with only a slight uptick in offensive efficiency.  This season saw a significant uptick in league efficiency as well as a uptick in pace.

Was this increase in offensive efficiency the product of having everyone in training camp before the season?  Was it the result of the shorter rosters this season?  Or was it the result of an increase in offensive talent?  I'm hoping for the latter, but what I'm really hoping for is that this was more than a one year spike. 

There's also no question that the Phoenix Mercury have had a significant effect in both boosting league efficiency and pace, and thankfully no one can say that you can't win championships playing that way in the WNBA.

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I watched a lot of NBATV this summer.  I watched Jerry West and Elgin Baylor trying to carry their team against the Celtics.  I watched Chamberlain and Russell play each other.  I watched the championship Knicks squads.  I watched Moses and Julius.  I watched the 80s Lakers and Celtics.  And thanks to Jordan, Stockton, and Robinson entering the Hall of Fame, I watched a ton of their games.  While watching all of those games, I was reminded that the period covering the late 80s and early 90s was by far the best period in NBA history in terms of the quality of play.  I'm going to talk about why, but also thought I would share some graphs showing the evolution of the NBA.  Here's a graph of league average offensive efficiency (pts/100 possessions) and league average pace (possessions/48 min) from the first season after the NBA/ABA merger through last season.

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• The Mercury are averaging roughly the same amount of points in the regular season and the playoffs (92.8 vs. 93.5) I looked at the Mercury regular season performance and realized that the Mercury's scoring improvement from 2008 to 2009 was coming from an increased pace, rather than increased offensive efficiency.  The playoffs have been the opposite of that.  The Mercury have averaged 9 fewer offensive possessions in the playoffs, but have been scoring the same amount of points because the team's offensive efficiency has been unreal in the playoffs, jumping from a league leading 1.06 points a per possession to  an incredible 1.19 points per possession.  However, the Mercury did give up a very high 1.11 points per poss on defense, up from 1.03 in the regular season. 
  
• There's no other way to frame this other than offense vs. defense on the team level.  While the Mercury are scoring 1.19 points per poss and giving up 1.11 in the playoffs, the Fever are close to their regular season averages.  The Fever are only scoring 0.96 points per poss, but they're also only giving up 0.94 points per poss as compared to scoring 0.97 and giving up 0.92 in the regular season.  Both teams have actually played a similar pace in the playoffs with the Mercury averaging less than 2 more poss/g minutes than the Fever.
• The two teams in the WNBA Finals were both out rebounded in the playoffs and the regular season.  Both have been much more active on the offensive glass in the playoffs than the regular season,  Who controls the boards in this matchup? 
• In the matchup of the league's best defensive and offensive players, Catchings and Taurasi have been equally important to their team in the playoffs.  The best player for their team both offensive and defensively by a wide margin.  Each has scored a quarter of their team's points and handed out a quarter fo their team's assists in the playoffs, and also led their team in rebounding.  What's unique about this matchup is that where each player's team needs them the most is not on the side of the ball where they are the best in the league.  Catchings has been THE key offensive player for the Fever in the playoffs, the only really efficient scorer.   Catchings's offensive efficiency has been 1.15 points per poss in the playoffs, none of the other 6 players that have played more than 35 minutes in the playoffs has done better than January's 1.02 points per poss.  Catchings has finished her 2 point FGA, shooting 58% after only 41% in the regular season, reached the FT line at an incredible rate of 2 FT/ 3FGA, led the team in assists, and crashed the offensive boards.  This is an enormous improvement over her regular season performance, and without it the Fever would have been out of the playoffs by now.  Taurasi's offensive performance has also been up across the board by a significant margin in the playoffs, but Taurasi's offensive efficiency doesn't  stand out on the Mercury the way Tamika's does.  Taylor, Bonner, Smith, and Willingham have all produced at least 1.23 points per poss.  Where Diana Taurasi is truly indenpensable to the Mercury is on defense.  She's the team's best weakside help defender (The most blocks by a player shorter than 6'4" this season), their most physical and most versatile defender, and a key defensive rebounder on a team without great rebounding posts. 
  

There has been a lot of discussion about UConn losing Renee Montgomery and what that means for this season. 

A debate about replacing Renee's intangibles could go on forever, but I thought I'd focus on the nuts and bolts of replacing Renee in the offense. 

No one of this season's roster can pick the pocket of an opposing guard at halfcourt like Renee, but I haven't seen anyone worried about replacing Renee on defense.  This also isn't about the individual merits of Tiffany Hayes, Lorin Dixon, or Caroline Doty starting at point guard.  Replacing a star player that was responsible for 25% of the team's possessions when she was on the floor is never a simple 1 for 1 substitution and it's a two guard system that doesn't put a lot pressure on the point guard's ball handling ability, this is the broader view of how the team as a whole replaces Renee.

To begin with, the Possession Distribution chart below is roughly how possessions were divided by UConn's starting lineup.  (I used stats from the 10 games after Caroline Doty's ACL injury where Geno used a rotation of 8 or less players to simplify things).

Possessions in basketball statistics are defined by acts that lead to the other team getting the ball, turnovers and the the FTAs and FGAs that result in a change of possession. 

Tiffany Hayes and Kalana Greene's 15% slice of the pie is indicative of the size of the offensive role for every player outside the big three of Renee, Maya, and Tina.  Caroline Doty, Lorin Dixon, and Kaili McLaren were all in that 15% area.  Meghan Gardler -- who played limited minutes in the 8 player rotation after Doty was injured -- was at 10% in her minutes and didn't generate the necessary shot attempts to get to 15%. 

Going into next season it's probably unfair to expect anyone except Maya Moore, Tina Charles, Kalana Greene, and Tiffany Hayes to increase the size of their pie slice from last season.  The size of a player's offensive role, or their slice of pie, usually doesn't change very much season to season, rarely more than +/-2%.  How efficient a player is with the possessions they use may change as the player improves, but their share of the pie doesn't. 

The exception to this are players that are highly skilled at creating their own shot.  They have the ability to expand their size of the pie when there is a gap left by a departing star, but even shot creators don't fluctuate as much season to season as you would think because usually the shot creators are taking the first bite of the pie before the role players get to the pie, in addition to the leftovers when the shot clock is running down. 

In Renee's case she was definitely familiar with the first bite, taking a very significant chunk of her shots very early in the shot clock before the ball got to her teammates.  So it's not that hard to imagine that the ball would have found similarly capable hands a little further into many of Renee's possessions.

The players that play the majority of Renee's minutes this season are likely going to be limited to around that 15% sized slice of pie.  That means 10% of the team's possessions, which amounts to 6 or 7 possessions per game, are going to end up in the hands of the four previous mentioned players.  That's a significant chuck, but not a particularly large one. 

Maya Moore and Tina Charles are capable of simply taking on that 10% by themselves without much of a drop off in efficiency, but I suspect a slightly more modest rise in their share of the pie.  Still they should combine to make up at least 50% of the pie next season, which puts half of that 10% in very good hands.

The key player here may actually be Kalana Greene.  Kalana had a small slice of the pie last season, but as a sophomore in 06/07 before Maya's arrival and Kalana's ACL injury dramatically altered the food chain, Kalana had a 21% slice of the pie, while maintaining the same level of offensive efficiency as Renee had last season. 

There have been a  lot of predictions made that Tiffany Hayes will greatly expand her offensive role next season and that may very well happen to some degree, but it doesn't have to have happen in order for the team to fill in for Renee.

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Was John's season a fluke? 

I've seen this the question asked quite a few times.  A player suddenly shooting the ball better at age 29 does raise serious questions, but I think there's a decent chance it's not a fluke. Lets take a look his shooting the last few years in Sacramento and with the Bulls courtesy of 82games.

The numbers that should jump out right away is his FG% on close shots.  63% for three straight seasons.  That's impressive efficiency around the basket.  And he's getting to the basket for a good % of his shots.  Gordon had an 80/20 split on his FGA for comparison.  So at the very least John will finish around the basket as well as any Bull.

It is true that he's only put up one really strong 3-point shooting season, but he was consistent all season long with his shooting.  He never shot worse than 37% in any full month this season, and shot at least 43% from 3 in his other 5 full months.  And he shot the ball pretty well from nearly every spot on the floor.  Prior to this season, Prior to this season John was a break even 3-point shooter at 33%, rather than a horrible 3-point shooter.  Visually it looks like he's developed a consistent, but unorthodox, trigger mechanism for his shot, but he obviously doesn't have a Ben Gordon like track record. .

The focus has been on John's improved shooting, but nearly as important was a career best turnover rate.  And the shooting and drop in turnover rate are likely connected.  This season in Sacramento 24% of his FGA were 3PA, and he was assited on 62% of his 3PM.  In 07/08 14% of his FGA were 3PA and 89% of John's 3PM were assisted.  That at least suggests that the pull up three he took often this season either never almost never went in or simply wasn't a part of his game prior to this season

In 07/08 and 08/09 in Sacramento, Salmons took the same % of 2P jump shots, had the same FG% on those shots, and the same assist% on those shots.

And he had the same FG% on side shots with the same AST%, but a quarter of his forays to the basket ilkely became those pull up 3-point attempts.  If he's shooting 40% on 3PA that's a reasonable tradeoff because it was that reduction in drives to the basket that likely led to a signifcant decline in turnovers.  In Chicago he took even more 3PA and his turnovers dropped even more.

Something that caught my eye almost  immediately is how much Salmons was assisted in Chicago compared to Sacramento. It's a fairly large jump, and I wouldn't have thought that Salmons was assisted on half of his shots in Chicago.  For comparison Gordon was assisted on 47% of jumpers and 38% of close shots.  At least part of the reason for the jump is Salmons getting a lot more assisted transition baskets with the Bulls, and the other part is more assisted 3s because he wasn't a primary ball handler in Chicago.

Much of John's game has been very consistent from year.  Improving his shooting allowed him to cut his turnovers, and turned him into a starting caliber player for the 1st time in his career.  So why did he shoot 41% o 3PA this season?  The stats suggest either he made changes mechanically that allowed him to make jumpers with consistency, or that with Artest gone and Kevin Martin out injured he was able to play big minutes as a #1 scoring option for the 1st time.  Which would have meant getting to take those 1 on 1  pull up 3s on a consistent basis instead of being put in catch and shoot situations as a reserve role player.  Salmons shot 41% on 3PA this year, but he still didn't appear to be an effective catch and shoot player.  It's probably a little of both.  He's an odd player, but I don't expect his shooting to be a fluke if he's allowed to do his thing.  If he's asked to conform to a system or asked to play a limited role off the bench where he can't get his 1 on 1 opportunities in the flow of the game there's a much greater chance that he reverts to the 33% 3P shooter and mediocre player.  You can live with John's style of play when it comes within the rythm of the game, but it's not what you really want from a guy coming off the bench.

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For awhile now I've been resigned to Gordon leaving because resigning him looked like it would create more long term problems than it solved from my perspective.  Especially because I wanted the Bulls to have the best possible chance of at least making a run at Wade in 2010.  Today, I changed my mind on Gordon because of discussion on this site.

The salary cap was 58.7 million dollars this season, and to be safe let's assume it remains the same.  I'm not the salary cap expert that other posters are, but the cream of the 2010 free agent crop would make a little over 17 million in 2010-11 if they didn't exercise their opt out clauses.  The Bulls getting Wade would likely ultimately be a result of a sign and trade so that Wade can get his full salary, but the Bulls still have to be a threat to sign Wade out right in order to force Miami's hand.  Bosh might be willing to come out right, but he'd probably prefer getting his max contract through a sign and trade as well.  So I'll assume the Bulls need to be close to 18 million under the cap to offer a max contract to free agent.  Which means they can't be much higher than 40 million dollars in committed salary.   

The Bulls right now have four players in Rose, Deng, Hinrich, and Noah under contract for 2010-11 at just over 29 million combined.  That's four solid pieces to add a star player to.  If the Bulls use 2 of their next 3 1st round picks that will add something around 3 million in salary.  So that puts the Bulls at roughly 32 million dollars in committed salary.  Leaving around 9 million dollars of room to play with.

So that leaves the Bulls will three players to make decisions on: Tyrus Thomas, Ben Gordon, and John Salmons.  I still believe in Tyrus, and in an ideal world I'd rather have Thomas than Gordon long term.  But, I know there's almost no way that the Bulls get a long term contract done with Thomas this summer after the way the playoffs went and that agreeing to a contract with him quickly in the summer of 2010 is just as unlikely.  If Tyrus doesn't sign this summer as expected, the Bulls should probably keep him until the summer of 2010 because the ability to renounce his rights creates flexibility.

So that leaves 9 million that can potentially be spent on Ben Gordon.  If the Bulls can get Gordon to sign a contract that pays out 9 million or less in 2010-11.  They can sign Gordon without it negatively impacting the opportunity to sign a max free agent in 2010 because the Bulls could renounce the rights to Tyrus.  And it would increase the options for the Bulls.  Because the threat exists for Wade to go to Chicago out right,  the Bulls can likely force a sign and trade with Miami.  Ben Gordon could be used in a sign and trade for Wade, which gets Wade to Chicago while still giving him his max contract.  Thomas could be signed and shipped to Miami or traded somewhere else.  The Bulls could just relinquish their rights to Thomas.  Or potentially depending on the numbers they might not have to give up the rights to Thomas in order to complete a sign and trade for a player like Wade.  Allowing the Bulls time to work out a contract with Thomas.  If the Bulls go after Bosh instead then the Bulls have the flexibility to keep Gordon and maybe send other players in a sign and trade.  The key is having the cap space to sign a Bosh or Wade out right in order to force sign and trades from either Miami or Toronto.

Salmons was aquired as Ben Gordon insurance.  Salmons can play the 2010-11 season for 5.8 million or he can opt out in the summer of 2010.  Opinion seems to be split about which option he takes, but it probably doesn't matter in the big scheme of things.  If Gordon doesn't resign then Salmons is good insurance and his contract in 2010-11 isn't big enough to impact free agency even if he doesn't opt out.  If Gordon does resign then Salmons should be able to be moved during the 09-10 season for players with contracts that will definitely be expiring.  San Antonio, for example, was reportedly interested in Salmons last season, and they'll have plenty of expiring deals next season.

The elephant in the room with all of this is of course the luxury tax.  Signing Gordon from my perspective only makes sense if the Bulls don't have to dump Hinrich or Deng for essentially nothing in order to get under the luxury tax.  While signing Gordon pushes the Bulls over the tax, perhaps they can minimize the tax by buying out Tim Thomas and/or moving Jerome James to a team with salary cap space.  Thomas already mentioned a buyout to the press.  I forget how the insurance issue ultimately works out if James is traded.  But, there's some potential to minimize the tax costs.

This is the way I can get fully behind a Gordon resigning.  If his contract doesn't cost more than 9 million or so in the 1st couple of years, and it doesn't require dumping Hinrich or Deng to do it.  Of course it also requires Bulls management having a plan.  And it would sure help if Vinny isn't the coach by the summer of 2010 if the Bulls aren't willing to fire him this summer.  Now go ahead and point out the flaws in my logic and/or math.  Start another Hinrich/Gordon war.  Show off how tough you are by calling Deng soft.  And if you get bored call LaMarcus Aldridge a ninny.

Here's Basketball on Paper stats for March.  I included Feburary as well for easy comparison.

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I started out skeptical of the 2010 plans because of the roster and salary structure of the Bulls, but the coup Paxson pulled off at the trade deadline has made 2010 an almost undeniable fact.  As I've been thinking about future possibilities.  This plan is what I keep coming back to.

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