SB Nation User Blog: Scotter

Atheltic testing results finally released

Scotter — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 20:35:14 -0000

Atheltic testing results finally released

It's finally out.

Mario Austin to play for the Bulls' summer league team

Scotter — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 20:11:08 -0000

Mario Austin to play for the Bulls' summer league team

Apparently Mario Austin is back on the Bulls radar. He was drafted in 03' and has been decent in Europe. The Bulls still own his rights so he's a minor asset that could be included in trades or used to fill in the bench after a big trade. Maybe he just wants out of Europe or maybe the Bulls are actually interested in getting some value out of their long lost 2nd round pick.

Salmons: One season fluke?

Scotter — Sat, 23 May 2009 03:13:58 -0000

Was John's season a fluke?

I've seen this the question asked quite a few times. A player suddenly shooting the ball better at age 29 does raise serious questions, but I think there's a decent chance it's not a fluke. Lets take a look his shooting the last few years in Sacramento and with the Bulls courtesy of 82games.

		Jumpers			Close
	Att.	eFG%	Ast'd	Att.	eFG%	Ast'd	Foul%
Bulls	73%	50%	51%	27%	66%	50%	13%
Sac 09	68%	47%	40%	32%	63%	36%	13%
2007/08	58%	42%	39%	42%	63%	35%	14%
2006/07	66%	43%	43%	34%	63%	45%	14%

The numbers that should jump out right away is his FG% on close shots. 63% for three straight seasons. That's impressive efficiency around the basket. And he's getting to the basket for a good % of his shots. Gordon had an 80/20 split on his FGA for comparison. So at the very least John will finish around the basket as well as any Bull.

It is true that he's only put up one really strong 3-point shooting season, but he was consistent all season long with his shooting. He never shot worse than 37% in any full month this season, and shot at least 43% from 3 in his other 5 full months. And he shot the ball pretty well from nearly every spot on the floor. Prior to this season, Prior to this season John was a break even 3-point shooter at 33%, rather than a horrible 3-point shooter. Visually it looks like he's developed a consistent, but unorthodox, trigger mechanism for his shot, but he obviously doesn't have a Ben Gordon like track record. .

The focus has been on John's improved shooting, but nearly as important was a career best turnover rate. And the shooting and drop in turnover rate are likely connected. This season in Sacramento 24% of his FGA were 3PA, and he was assited on 62% of his 3PM. In 07/08 14% of his FGA were 3PA and 89% of John's 3PM were assisted. That at least suggests that the pull up three he took often this season either never almost never went in or simply wasn't a part of his game prior to this season

In 07/08 and 08/09 in Sacramento, Salmons took the same % of 2P jump shots, had the same FG% on those shots, and the same assist% on those shots.

		3P FGA			2P Jumpers			Inside Shots
	Att.	FG%	AST%	Att.	FG%	AST%	Att.	FG%	AST%
2008/09	24	0.418	62	43%	0.388	26	31	0.63	36
2007/08	14	0.331	89	43%	0.387	4	41	0.625	35

And he had the same FG% on side shots with the same AST%, but a quarter of his forays to the basket ilkely became those pull up 3-point attempts. If he's shooting 40% on 3PA that's a reasonable tradeoff because it was that reduction in drives to the basket that likely led to a signifcant decline in turnovers. In Chicago he took even more 3PA and his turnovers dropped even more.

Something that caught my eye almost immediately is how much Salmons was assisted in Chicago compared to Sacramento. It's a fairly large jump, and I wouldn't have thought that Salmons was assisted on half of his shots in Chicago. For comparison Gordon was assisted on 47% of jumpers and 38% of close shots. At least part of the reason for the jump is Salmons getting a lot more assisted transition baskets with the Bulls, and the other part is more assisted 3s because he wasn't a primary ball handler in Chicago.

Much of John's game has been very consistent from year. Improving his shooting allowed him to cut his turnovers, and turned him into a starting caliber player for the 1st time in his career. So why did he shoot 41% o 3PA this season? The stats suggest either he made changes mechanically that allowed him to make jumpers with consistency, or that with Artest gone and Kevin Martin out injured he was able to play big minutes as a #1 scoring option for the 1st time. Which would have meant getting to take those 1 on 1 pull up 3s on a consistent basis instead of being put in catch and shoot situations as a reserve role player. Salmons shot 41% on 3PA this year, but he still didn't appear to be an effective catch and shoot player. It's probably a little of both. He's an odd player, but I don't expect his shooting to be a fluke if he's allowed to do his thing. If he's asked to conform to a system or asked to play a limited role off the bench where he can't get his 1 on 1 opportunities in the flow of the game there's a much greater chance that he reverts to the 33% 3P shooter and mediocre player. You can live with John's style of play when it comes within the rythm of the game, but it's not what you really want from a guy coming off the bench.

Can the Bulls survive with Salmons at SG?

I've seen questions about his ability to play SG, and I believe there were reports out of Sacramento at the time of the trade that he played better at SF. But at least according to 82games Salmons has at the very least not played any worse at SG.

		SG			SF
	MIN%	PER	opp PER	MIN%	PER	opp PER
Bulls				22	17.2	17.2
2008/09	18	17.4	21.6	30	18	17.1
2007/08	39	16.7	15.5	22	14.6	16.8
2006/07	26	14.5	15.3	23	12.8	17.6

His opponents PER this season in Sacramento wasn't good at SG, but it looks like a fluke compared to the rest of his career. Salmons appears to be a player that gives up about the amount that he produces. (In looking at the opp PER numbers, you should keep in mind that Salmons likely played most of his minutes at SG with Artest on the floor in 06/07 and 07/08, and played SF with defensive liability Kevin Martin on the floor)

The other question at least in my mind is can you afford to play Salmons at SF if you dump Deng. There were obviously long stretches where the Bulls were very effective offensively letting Gordon and Salmons take turns. The team scored an impressive 113.8 pts per 100 possessions in Salmons minutes in Chicago. But, playing Rose, Gordon, and Salmons is an unsustainable defensive disaster for a good team. The Bulls also gave up 112.7 points per 100 poss with Salmons on the floor. It's obviously not just the fault of Salmons. When Rose and/or Gordon was on the floor the team also gave up at least 110 pts per 100 poss. Salmons played about 75% of his minutes with Gordon and the team scored 105 points and gave up 104 points per 48 minutes in their minutes together. Rose, Gordon, and Salmons on the floor together is too poor defensively to be sustainable over the course of a season. Unfortunately Salmons just doesn't rebound well enough or contribute enough to the team defense to be starting at SF along with Gordon and Rose. If it was a different starting SG and PG than Rose and Gordon then starting Salmons at SF would be more feasible.

Going forward the Bulls can survive next season with Salmons at starting at SG. Defensively it's a good place to place him, especially in the East with all the big starting SGs. It's easier defensively for him to start at SG and then slide over during the game to backup the SF because most teams go smaller and quicker off the bench in the backcourt. That aren't a ton of starting SGs whose biggest threat is dribble oenetration. There are also less help responsibilities defensively at SG, especially if he's assigned to stay with a shooter. And offensively playing SG or SF hasn't really made any difference to Salmons based on his past history. Salmons can't replace Gordon's offense by himself, but he can at least fill the void enough that the Bulls can make up the difference in other areas, particularly on defense.

I see a lot proposed lineups with everyone back or at least Gordon and Deng starting, and Salmons coming off the bench. That's not something that's likely to work well for Salmons. There's a reason Sacramento has always been worse defensively with him on the floor, and that he was also an offense killer until this season. Bringing his offensive style into an already established game flow is a recipe for offensive distruption, and he has to score well enough to justify that distrubtion. And normally bringing a mediocre player off the bench isn't a big deal, but Salmons is the type of player that actively hurts his team with his mediocre play because of his ball dominance and turnover issues. I find myself in the strange position of being relatively content with Salmons starting at SG, but wanting no part of him as a starting SF or bench player.

Getting Back on Board with Gordon

Scotter — Tue, 05 May 2009 21:18:34 -0000

For awhile now I've been resigned to Gordon leaving because resigning him looked like it would create more long term problems than it solved from my perspective. Especially because I wanted the Bulls to have the best possible chance of at least making a run at Wade in 2010. Today, I changed my mind on Gordon because of discussion on this site.

The salary cap was 58.7 million dollars this season, and to be safe let's assume it remains the same. I'm not the salary cap expert that other posters are, but the cream of the 2010 free agent crop would make a little over 17 million in 2010-11 if they didn't exercise their opt out clauses. The Bulls getting Wade would likely ultimately be a result of a sign and trade so that Wade can get his full salary, but the Bulls still have to be a threat to sign Wade out right in order to force Miami's hand. Bosh might be willing to come out right, but he'd probably prefer getting his max contract through a sign and trade as well. So I'll assume the Bulls need to be close to 18 million under the cap to offer a max contract to free agent. Which means they can't be much higher than 40 million dollars in committed salary.

The Bulls right now have four players in Rose, Deng, Hinrich, and Noah under contract for 2010-11 at just over 29 million combined. That's four solid pieces to add a star player to. If the Bulls use 2 of their next 3 1st round picks that will add something around 3 million in salary. So that puts the Bulls at roughly 32 million dollars in committed salary. Leaving around 9 million dollars of room to play with.

So that leaves the Bulls will three players to make decisions on: Tyrus Thomas, Ben Gordon, and John Salmons. I still believe in Tyrus, and in an ideal world I'd rather have Thomas than Gordon long term. But, I know there's almost no way that the Bulls get a long term contract done with Thomas this summer after the way the playoffs went and that agreeing to a contract with him quickly in the summer of 2010 is just as unlikely. If Tyrus doesn't sign this summer as expected, the Bulls should probably keep him until the summer of 2010 because the ability to renounce his rights creates flexibility.

So that leaves 9 million that can potentially be spent on Ben Gordon. If the Bulls can get Gordon to sign a contract that pays out 9 million or less in 2010-11. They can sign Gordon without it negatively impacting the opportunity to sign a max free agent in 2010 because the Bulls could renounce the rights to Tyrus. And it would increase the options for the Bulls. Because the threat exists for Wade to go to Chicago out right, the Bulls can likely force a sign and trade with Miami. Ben Gordon could be used in a sign and trade for Wade, which gets Wade to Chicago while still giving him his max contract. Thomas could be signed and shipped to Miami or traded somewhere else. The Bulls could just relinquish their rights to Thomas. Or potentially depending on the numbers they might not have to give up the rights to Thomas in order to complete a sign and trade for a player like Wade. Allowing the Bulls time to work out a contract with Thomas. If the Bulls go after Bosh instead then the Bulls have the flexibility to keep Gordon and maybe send other players in a sign and trade. The key is having the cap space to sign a Bosh or Wade out right in order to force sign and trades from either Miami or Toronto.

Salmons was aquired as Ben Gordon insurance. Salmons can play the 2010-11 season for 5.8 million or he can opt out in the summer of 2010. Opinion seems to be split about which option he takes, but it probably doesn't matter in the big scheme of things. If Gordon doesn't resign then Salmons is good insurance and his contract in 2010-11 isn't big enough to impact free agency even if he doesn't opt out. If Gordon does resign then Salmons should be able to be moved during the 09-10 season for players with contracts that will definitely be expiring. San Antonio, for example, was reportedly interested in Salmons last season, and they'll have plenty of expiring deals next season.

The elephant in the room with all of this is of course the luxury tax. Signing Gordon from my perspective only makes sense if the Bulls don't have to dump Hinrich or Deng for essentially nothing in order to get under the luxury tax. While signing Gordon pushes the Bulls over the tax, perhaps they can minimize the tax by buying out Tim Thomas and/or moving Jerome James to a team with salary cap space. Thomas already mentioned a buyout to the press. I forget how the insurance issue ultimately works out if James is traded. But, there's some potential to minimize the tax costs.

This is the way I can get fully behind a Gordon resigning. If his contract doesn't cost more than 9 million or so in the 1st couple of years, and it doesn't require dumping Hinrich or Deng to do it. Of course it also requires Bulls management having a plan. And it would sure help if Vinny isn't the coach by the summer of 2010 if the Bulls aren't willing to fire him this summer. Now go ahead and point out the flaws in my logic and/or math. Start another Hinrich/Gordon war. Show off how tough you are by calling Deng soft. And if you get bored call LaMarcus Aldridge a ninny.

March BOP

Scotter — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 02:53:48 -0000

[Note by your friendly BullsBlogger, 04/05/09 5:00 PM CDT: From the fanposts. -ed. ]

Here's Basketball on Paper stats for March. I included Feburary as well for easy comparison.

Feburary	USG%	TO%	eFG%	TS%	ORtg	DRtg	Poss	OR%	DR%	FTr	AS%	MIN
TEAM	20.0	14.6	49.9	55.2	112.5	111.7	1115.3	30.3	68.3	28.0	56.3	2905
OPP	19.9	14.8	49.0	54.0	111.7	112.5	1110.8	31.7	69.7	23.0	52.9	2905
Rose	24.2	14.3	49.4	51.7	107.2	115.8	189.2	6.2	7.0	12.9	31.7	407
Gordon	25.8	12.9	52.2	58.6	115.0	114.3	209.4	3.5	9.9	29.6	13.5	422
Deng	19.2	13.1	42.5	48.6	100.2	112.0	145.5	3.8	13.9	28.4	9.8	394
Thomas	22.0	17.0	49.6	56.2	109.1	106.5	164.9	9.7	19.1	39.1	7.0	391
Noah	13.6	17.1	58.5	62.6	125.0	109.6	99.2	13.4	20.5	43.1	9.2	379
Hinrich	18.3	19.0	53.3	58.1	108.8	113.2	105.5	0.4	7.6	23.1	22.4	301
Brad Miller	18.5	14.6	47.0	56.8	117.6	106.0	41.2	6.9	28.4	42.4	18.3	116
Tim Thomas	19.5	11.8	51.9	54.2	106.9	113.0	25.5	1.7	14.5	19.2	6.9	68
Salmons	17.3	11.7	61.1	68.0	133.6	114.6	51.3	3.7	12.8	44.4	13.3	154
Nocioni	18.0	7.9	59.8	62.7	125.2	111.3	37.9	4.2	14.0	22.0	3.0	110
Sefolosa	11.9	10.6	19.4	23.3	72.7	115.8	18.8	5.6	6.7	11.1	11.4	82
Gray	16.4	22.0	29.4	34.1	75.0	109.4	22.7	9.6	18.3	23.5	3.9	72

March	USG%	TO%	eFG%	TS%	ORtg	DRtg	Poss	OR%	DR%	FTr	AS%	MIN
TEAM	20.0	14.6	51.1	56.0	112.0	110.9	1519.3	27.4	71.0	24.9	51.5	3915
OPP	19.8	13.8	50.3	54.2	110.9	112.0	1500.7	29.0	72.6	19.6	50.5	3915
Noah	14.3	13.4	53.2	59.3	124.8	107.7	127.1	12.9	22.9	37.2	7.8	459
Thomas	18.8	15.8	46.3	51.8	101.9	105.8	183.1	7.2	20.5	26.9	4.2	502
Salmons	19.8	13.3	56.7	62.3	117.5	112.8	233.0	1.6	11.3	29.5	6.1	606
Gordon	22.9	13.8	52.1	56.8	110.0	113.4	275.6	2.1	7.2	22.8	14.6	621
Rose	22.5	14.2	47.1	51.3	104.8	114.5	253.4	3.5	11.4	17.7	24.4	581
Miller	21.8	16.9	51.1	59.7	118.2	110.5	200.7	12.0	17.7	48.9	16.3	475
Tim Thomas	18.1	12.2	49.0	48.9	99.8	113.5	49.1	5.2	14.4	4.0	8.6	140
Hinrich	18.8	16.6	54.4	55.9	106.3	109.6	162.3	1.1	11.1	10.7	19.4	444

I don't have many comments. Derrick finally posted a decent defensive rebounding month. Noah was consistent once again. Honestly, just looking at how thoroughly average this team was in a month when they should have been improving makes me lose interest.

How I've been thinking about the future.

Scotter — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 02:37:31 -0000

I started out skeptical of the 2010 plans because of the roster and salary structure of the Bulls, but the coup Paxson pulled off at the trade deadline has made 2010 an almost undeniable fact. As I've been thinking about future possibilities. This plan is what I keep coming back to.

This summer I draft a low ceiling/high floor SG/SF and PF/C with the two 1st rounds picks. I'm not looking for future starters, just guys that could come in and play a productive 10-15 minutes off the bench. I let Gordon walk, and I make a hard push to get Tyrus to sign this summer so I don't have to deal with his cap hold in the summer of 2010. I really want Tyrus on this team long term. Moving him for Stoudemire or Bosh wouldn't be an easy decision for me because I continue to think he's going to be very good, and the type of player that consistently makes game changing plays. I would hope showing some faith in Tyrus combined with the uncertainity of the economy would get him to sign, but I know it's a long shot. I'd be willing to give him the 9-10 million per year that's been the going rate for athletic big men.

If I can get Thomas signed, I forget about blockbuster summer deals or trade deadline deals unless it's too good to pass up. I ride out the season with Rose, Salmons, Deng, Thomas, and Noah starting with Hinrich, Miller, Tim Thomas, two rookies, and some cheap veterans off the bench. Since Paxson seems set on giving Vinny another year that's not enough players to screw up with. If Salmons puts up another strong season, maybe he opts out to get his last contract.

Then in the summer of 2010, I go after Dwyane Wade hard. I didn't think Wade would leave Miami and worried about his injuries, but I've been changing my mind during the course of the season. He's clearly healthy again, and I think has learned to slightly alter his style. I think the new rule changes protect him more as well. Outside of LeBron, Wade is clearly the best player on the market that summer. He's more dominant than Bosh or Stoudemire, and brings championship experience.

Chicago is the one place Wade could make up the money he'd lose in by not signing in Miami because of the marketing opportunities. He has established enough of his own celebrity and accomplishment, and enough time has passed that the Jordan legacy would be an asset, rather than a burden. In addition there is the opportunity to market the All Chicago backcourt of Wade and Rose.

On the court Chicago would offer Derrick Rose, a player Wade openly lobbied for prior to the draft. However, they would have more than Derrick Rose. Rose, Wade, Deng, Thomas, and Noah with Hinrich, perhaps a resigned Brad Miller, some young players including potentially Asik, and cheap veterans would be a contending team capable of playing championship level defense with unmatched athleticism. I don't think Miami can match that as a talent base for Wade to pursue championships with. Even if Miami they could get Bosh to pair with Wade, I don't think Bosh and Beasley match what the Bulls would have. I'm finally willing to entertain Wade as a possibility.

I think this path gets the team further than any other possibility. Giving up Tyrus and expirings for Bosh or Stoudemire is a huge boost, but I don't think it's enough to get the team where it needs to go. It would still require some huge development by Rose. The more I think about it, the more I bet big on Wade. This summer will determine, whether this is going to be feasible. If it's clear Tyrus is going to be difficult to resign then the Bulls can go to plan B. Not much would have to change to go to Plan B. The same draft picks work. I still let Gordon walk, and readdress the SG position in 2010 free agency. And of course injuries during the course of next season could change things, but if I'm Paxson I keep Wade in mind as plan A. I have the patience to wait another year and a half for a shot at Wade, but I don't know if other Bulls fans do.

Feb BOP Style

Scotter — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 06:35:53 -0000

[Note by your friendly BullsBlogger, 03/03/09 9:47 AM CST: From the Fanposts. Scotter comes through yet again, I had nothing for today. -ed.]

Links for previous months: November, December, and January.

Feburary	USG%	TO%	eFG%	TS%	ORtg	DRtg	Poss	OR%	DR%	FTr	AS%	MIN
TEAM	20.0	14.6	49.9	55.2	112.5	111.7	1115.3	30.3	68.3	28.0	56.3	2905
OPP	19.9	14.8	49.0	54.0	111.7	112.5	1110.8	31.7	69.7	23.0	52.9	2905
Rose	24.2	14.3	49.4	51.7	107.2	115.8	189.2	6.2	7.0	12.9	31.7	407
Gordon	25.8	12.9	52.2	58.6	115.0	114.3	209.4	3.5	9.9	29.6	13.5	422
Deng	19.2	13.1	42.5	48.6	100.2	112.0	145.5	3.8	13.9	28.4	9.8	394
Thomas	22.0	17.0	49.6	56.2	109.1	106.5	164.9	9.7	19.1	39.1	7.0	391
Noah	13.6	17.1	58.5	62.6	125.0	109.6	99.2	13.4	20.5	43.1	9.2	379
Hinrich	18.3	19.0	53.3	58.1	108.8	113.2	105.5	0.4	7.6	23.1	22.4	301
Brad Miller	18.5	14.6	47.0	56.8	117.6	106.0	41.2	6.9	28.4	42.4	18.3	116
Tim Thomas	19.5	11.8	51.9	54.2	106.9	113.0	25.5	1.7	14.5	19.2	6.9	68
Salmons	17.3	11.7	61.1	68.0	133.6	114.6	51.3	3.7	12.8	44.4	13.3	154
Nocioni	18.0	7.9	59.8	62.7	125.2	111.3	37.9	4.2	14.0	22.0	3.0	110
Sefolosa	11.9	10.6	19.4	23.3	72.7	115.8	18.8	5.6	6.7	11.1	11.4	82
Gray	16.4	22.0	29.4	34.1	75.0	109.4	22.7	9.6	18.3	23.5	3.9	72

The sample size is obviously smaller due to the break, only 12 games. It was the team's best offensive month, but nearly the team's worst defensive month thanks to the last 5 games.

Derrick shot the ball very well this month, and was more aggressive on the offensive boards. But, no improvement in getting to the FT line or anything to do with defense.

Tyrus posted his third consecutive strong offensive month, and his best rebounding month of the season. Tyrus was leading the team in minutes played over the 1st 7 games, but hasn't played more than 30 minutes in any of the 5 games with the new additions.

Brad Miller has been everything I wanted so far. Unfortunately he hasn't been playing with the people I wanted so far. Only 32 minutes out of 116 with Tyrus. Only 42 with Deng. Only 63 minutes with Derrick, but 45 minutes with Tim Thomas

Statistical Plus/Minus

Scotter — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 00:11:16 -0000

Neil Paine from the Basketball-Reference Blog calculated statistical plus/minus for this season so far and a projected statistical plus/minus for this season based on the previous 3 seasons. For more info about statistical plus/minus you should read Neil's blog post, but I'll try to give a brief description. Statistical plus/minus was created by Dan Rosenbaum, who was a pioneer of adjusted plus/minus, in order to lower the noise of his adjusted plus/minus stats. So you have fewer cases like Nocioni with terrible stats and a great adjust plus/minus. Rosenbaum determined weights for the various boxscores stats based on how well they predicted adjusted plus/minus. So what you have is a boxscore metric like PER, Win Shares, or NBA Efficiency, except it's trying to predict point differential. In overly simple terms statistical plus/minus is the adjusted plus/minus a player should have based just on their boxscore stats. It's not meant to be a player rating system by itself, but I think statistical plus/minus is very useful to compare to this season's adjusted plus/minus,and to compare to a stat like PER.

Player          Tm      Pos     G       Min     SPM     projectedSPM
rose,derrick    chi     PG      54      1989    -1.71   -2.16
gordon,ben      chi     SG      54      1944    0.15    0.57
deng,luol       chi     SF      43      1484    -0.66   0.83
thomas,tyrus    chi     PF      51      1307    1.22    0.38
nocioni,andres  chi     SF      53      1281    -1.88   -0.74
noah,joakim     chi     C       52      1115    3.66    1.15
gooden,drew     chi     PF      31      920     -2.81   -2.67
hughes,larry    chi     SG      30      792     0.21    -0.95
sefolosha,thabo chi     SG      43      735     -0.44   -1.68
gray,aaron      chi     C       45      662     -0.83   -0.58
hinrich,kirk    chi     PG      23      611     1.34    1.77
CHICAGO                                         -1.70   -1.99
salmons,john    sac     SG      53      1980    0.09    -1.04
miller,brad     sac     C       43      1358    1.39    1.62
thomas,tim      nyk     SF      36      771     -0.21   -0.33

Few of the statistical plus/minus scores surprised me. Rose's strong negative doesn't surprise me. He's just been statistically poor in so many areas of the game. The difference between Tyrus, Miller, and Gooden, despite similar PERs is very expected. Noah's great score is expected and fits his adjusted plus/minus scores over the last two years. I was happy to see that Salmons had a positive number this season. That at least suggests that there's nothing in his stats this year that would lead to his very negative adjusted plus/minus. Nocioni's very negative statistical number reinforce that his positive adjusted plus/minus this season was a fluke.

The one real surprise is Hinrich's numbers. I don't fully understand why his score is that good, yet. But, I can't just dismiss it because Hinrich's adjusted plus/minus is also positive this year. And I've seen more times, unlike last game, where the team has genuinely played better with him on the floor. I can't dismiss the notion that the team plays better with Hinrich as easily as I could before.

Take a look and read the blog post, but remember that statistical isn't intended to be a rating system by itself. It's a piece of the puzzle that can help you interpret other stats.

Comments on the Bulls Forwards

Scotter — Sun, 08 Feb 2009 22:42:28 -0000

I'm going to make some comments about each fo the four primary forwards, but I thought I'd start by putting the postion in context. SF this season has been played by Deng (49%), Sefolosha (18%), Hughes (17%), Nocioni (10%), and Gordon (3%). Deng playing less than 50% of the minutes at SF never bodes well. This means that 1/5th of the time Vinny has been playing a 3 guard lineup. Even with Deng's injury that's way too much rebounding to give up.

The power forward position has mostly been manned by Thomas (39%), Nocioni (36%), Gooden (14%), and Deng (6%). A combined 50% from Gooden and Noc wouldn't have been the worst thing in the world if Gooden wasn't playing center for a good chunk of the time Nocioni was on the floor. Similarly Deng's 6% wouldn't be bad if Nocioni wasn't playing center for about half that time.

Luol Deng

It's been great to see that Deng is still capable of producing like he did in the past. I wasn't ever really worried, but watching him go through a month where he shot 40% and uncharacteristically turned the ball over to start the season was difficult at least raise some doubts about whether he could rediscover the things that made him successful. The offense began to come back in December, but his underrated defense really didn't show up until January when he started rebounding again. And despite the knocks on his athleticism, this team gets a whole lot less athletic if he's not playing.

As much as I believe in Tyrus, Deng might still be the player that I'd least want to see go in a trade (excluding Derrick of course). And it's not because I see a lot of potential for Deng to get better. It's because of how productive Deng already is, despite his obvious limitations. As I've said before, he's above-average at offense, defense, and rebounding. You can win with that type of player, and Deng wins his matchup much more than he loses it. Not only has he had a postive PER differential in each of the last four seasons accordng to 82 games, but he led the team in PER differential each of the last four seasons (+4.5, +8.2, +3.4, +3.8). So it shouldn't be a surprise that Deng has had an adjusted plus/minus of at least +4 in every season (+4.3, +7.6, +5.6, +4.6, +4.2). Deng has simply been a consistent difference maker, and I hope he can continue to sustain his recent production.

Tyrus Thomas

I've obviously written quite a bit about Tyrus over the last few years, including this dissertation from last summer. So I'm not planning on writing very much, but we'll see what happens. He is one of my favorite subjects.

Before we get to Tyrus's offense, I have a few comments on the other aspects of his game. In that fanpost from last summer I said to look for Tyrus's blocks and steal to return to closer to his rookie levels without hs personal fouls going up. That's what has happened so far. What was unexpected has been the dropoff in Tyrus's rebounding. He never fell below the Aldridge line, but it hasn't been up to the standard he set in his 1st two seasons. I was never really worried for the longterm given what he had done in previous seasons, but his string of double digit rebounding games is an excellent sign that he's got it back together. Now we can talk about the offense.

In December and January combined Tyrus shot 48% from the field and 83% from the line for a 55.5% TS%, and only turned it over 12% of the time. That's an offensive rating of 113 sustained over 30+ games. That's efficient offense despite, not really playing that well on offense, yet.

According to the NBA shot tracking data since December 1st, Tyrus has shot 55.5% in the immediate basket area after finishing only 40.4% of his shots to begin the season. He's made 40.5% of his jumpers after making only 26.3% to begin the season. Interestingly, it doesn't seem to matter how close Tyrus is to the basket when it comes to his jumper. He shot nearly the same % both inside of 16 feet and outside of 16 feet before and after December 1st. Where he got his shots did change slightly. He only went from taking 48% to 50% of his shots in the immediate basket area so he wasn't taking fewer outside shots. In fact he took more longer jump shots. His jumpers inside of 16 feet went from 24% of his shots to just 17% of his shots. So if you've been following along with the math, you know that his long jumpers rose from 28% of his shots to a full third of his shots. Obviously the key numbers are Tyrus finishing 55% of his shots at the basket (71/128) and making 40% of his jumpers (51/126).

As I said, I don't believe Tyrus is playing that well offensively yet. I've been confident for a long time that he would be a guy that could make 40% of his jumpers, which is why anybody telling him that he shouldn't shoot jumpers drove me nuts (fans, announcers, and coaches included). I obviously see all the boneheaded plays too. The jumpers he jacks whenever he hasn't been able to get a shot in awhile. He still doesn't swing the ball enough. And there's the out of control drives to the basket, but Tyrus is a player that can be productive in spite of himself and I think a lot of that stuff starts to go away if he's more involved offensively. His assist rate is nearly half of what it was last season, but it's more the result of a lack of opportunities than selfishness. He's hardly been posted or isolated at all this year. Deng's assist rate has suffered a similar fate. There's a lot Tyrus can do to create opportunities for his teammates. I'll be interested to see if the coaching staff gives Tyrus more opportunities to create offensively. From day one Tyrus has wanted to be a play maker offensively, and he believes he can help the team win that way. The coaches need to recognize that and channel that desire. I've long seen Tyrus as a future 2nd offensive option. Not necessarily the 2nd leading scorer, but rather the 2nd guy you run plays for. The 2nd guy that make something happen on his own and creates fr his teamamtes. Deng might score more points, but Tyrus would get more plays run for him. Maybe that's a pipe dream, but I believe it's tangible with the right coaching and commitment from Tyrus.

Andres Nocioni

If there's an action that has defined both the Bulls defense and Nocioni over the last few seasons, it's probably trying to take a charge. According to 82games the Bulls drew 273 charges in 05-06 and254 in 06-07, but dropped to 187 in 07-08 with the team's defensive intensity declining and more importantly the refs no longer indulging the floppers across the league like they did in the past. It seemed like every member of the team loved to flop, Chander, Harrington, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Duhon, and Hinrich all drew their fair share. And of course the king of floppers challenged for the league lead.

His ability to draw a charge coupled with good defensive rebounding for a 6'7" player, mitigated most of Nocioni's defensive faults and allowed him to defend the PF position. When he was drawing a charge every 33 minutes (05-06) or every 28 minutes (06-07) the costs of Nocioni's inability to stick to guarding his own man weren't so high. Things changed dramatically last season with Nocioni only drawing a charge every 52 minutes he was on the court (07-08). The decline in his physical ability to get to the spot coupled with the changes in how the game is coupled were a death blow for Noc, and only compounded by his endless whining after he clobbers somebody. I can't find charge stats for this season, but I can't remember the last time I saw Nocioni successfully draw a charge. Instead his foul rate is at a career high 5.1 per 36 minutes.

The key to Nocioni's game was ability to play PF. His positional PER has always been higher at PF than SF, primarily because his offensive opportunities increase. He could actually drive by PFs, which meant his FT rate at PF has been nearly double that of his FT rate at SF each of the last four seasons. He used to be able to match the production of opposing PFs, but that is clearly no longer the case.

As write this I'm trying to remember the Nocioni that surprised people with his athleticism. The guy that could throw down a power dunk in traffic, or make the occasional spectacular block. Or even the guy who was making 50+% of his mid-range jumpers. He could probably still play backup PF somewhat effectively, but that should be a 12-16 minute per game role behind Tyrus. Unfortunately he's paid like a guy that plays twice that.

Thabo Sefolosha

I think Thabo has settled into who is going to be. He can still improve, but he's basically the player he's going to be going forward. He's not going to be a starting SG, he's probably not going to be a starter period. But, he can still be a key rotation player because of the things he can do well

There's been some improvement offensively. I noticed this before looking at the stats, but he's shooting 61% on his inside FGA after making 55% in his 1st two seasons. He's trying to force things offensively much less than last season, which has led to his usage% dropping to 14% after being at 17% his 1st two seasons. As a result his % FGM that were assisted has increased 7% both for jumpshots and inside shots. That's probably a good thing, and bodes well for his future.

Thabo brings considerable value to the table, but that value doesn't come from being a defensive stopper. When it comes to guarding his man, he's in the neighborhood of Luol Deng. That's an above-average defender, so someone that can force a player to take tough shots, but not an elite defender. His PER against has been similar to Deng's in each of the last two seasons.

Thabo's real defensive value comes from help defense. Thabo's combination of defensive rebounding, blocks, and steals, put him in a select group of players, and most of them are athletic power forwards. His steal and block rates have increased every season. The last couple of weeks have shown what can happen when this team creates transiton opportunities defensively. There's only three players on the roster that can consistently create those type of opportunties, and Thabo is one of them.

There are situations where Thabo fits well. He's a good backup for Deng at SF. When Vinny is playng Nocioni and Deng at the forwards, putting Thabo on the floor at SG makes a lot of sense. Nocioni and Gordon should rarely if ever be on the floor at the same time anyway, at this point they basically serve the same function. Ideally you're keeping two of Thomas, Noah, and Sefolosha on the floor for defensve balance.

A few comments on the Bulls Centers

Scotter — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 01:08:54 -0000

A few weeks ago I had a few coments on the backcourt players. Then I couldn't watch the games for a few weeks, but that issue has been solved by a return to Illinois. Here's a look at the center position with a look at the forwards hopefully coming soon.

According to 82games the minutes at center have been distributed like: Noah 39%, Gray 26%, Gooden, 23%, Thomas 8%, Nocioni 2%, and Simmons 1%. This has been the worst position for the Bulls in terms of 82games' PER differential, last pl ace in the NBA. In fact the Bulls are essentially tied with the Warriors for giving up the highest counterpart PER at any position with a 21.8 PER, and looking at that minute distribution it's easy to see why. When Drew Gooden, Aaron Gray, and Andres Nocioni are playing over 50% of the minutes at center you have a defensive disaster. Thomas isn't the defensive disaster at center that those guys are, but if he's listed as playing center that means Deng or more likely Nocioni is playing PF another terrible defensive situation.

Joakim Noah

So far has has played the same percentage of the team's minutes as last season,because 39%. Obviously Noah coming into the season out of shape was a serious problem, but he still only played 24 minutes/game in January when he was clearly in shape enough to play more and Gooden was in street clothes. I still maintain that he should be playing every minute his foul situation allows, which should be 30+ minutes per game.

Despite his conditioning issues, Noah has been demonstrably better this season. I wrote about some of the things I'd be looking for back in October, and I'm fairly pleased at this point. Noah has been less involved offensively this season. Opportunities to post up offensively have been virtually non-existent, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. He's not getting to the FT line at the same rate as last season because of that, but he's been even more effective on the offensive boards. He's gone very good at 12.4% to great at 15.5%. If there's an example of an area where Derrick Rose is making his teammates better this is probably it.

He's also finishing his limited opportunities better. After improving his FG% throughout his rookie season, he's been better this year. He made 52% of his FGA over the last two months of his rookie season, and has made 54% of his FGA so far this season. In October I wondered whether he was capable of being a high efficiency offensive player like Chandler or Biedrins, and he's made big strides towards being that kind of consistent high efficiency player that takes maximum advantage of limited opportunties with a current Offensive Rating of 118, which puts him among the top 30 players in the league.

Defensively I wondered whether Noah could improve his rebounding and shot blocking, and his performance has been at least partly positive in both areas. His defensive rebounding is slightly up, 18% to 20%. There's signficant room to improve, but at least it's movement in the right direction. Noah's shotblocking has had the more dramatic improvement. After blocking 3.3% of shots last season, he's blocked 5.3% this season and 6% in both December and January. I wanted to see improvement in this area from Noah, but he's probably over done it. The result has been an increase in his foul rate to 5.5 fouls per 36 minutes and a drop in steal rate, but overall I feel better knowing that Noah at least has the ability to block shots at this rate.

With his overall improved play and the knowledge, according to Doug Thonus, that Noah now has a live in personal trainer, I feel more confident in Noah's ability to be productive physically. His ceiling is now predicated on how much he can improve inconsistency and the mental arts of the game.

Drew Gooden

I know there's a segment of Bulls fans that loved Joe Smith's mini-resurgence last season and were thrilled by the addition of Drew Gooden, but I'm clearly not a member of that segment. Statistically Gooden has given Bulls one of his thoroughly average years. This TS%, OR%, DR%, TRB%, AST%, STL%, TO%, USG%, ORtg, and PER are all essentially at his career averages. Gooden this season has become more of a jumpshooter than ever. He's shooting a solid 41% on jumpshots, but two thirds of his shot have been jumpers after only taking a little more than half his shots outside the paint during his best years. I've written before about Luol Deng being a player that's better than his statistics, which shows up in Deng's consistently high adjusted plus/minus. Gooden is the opposite type of player who is worse than his statistics. He's had a long career of relatively consistent production, which makes his adjusted plus/minus more reliable. Gooden had an adjusted plus/minus for 2007/2008 (Using 5 years of data to reduce noise) of -2.31 on offense and -1.36 on defense to finish 56 out of 74 PFs. And that feels like an accurate assesment of Gooden, and fits with Cleveland's issues with him. Gooden has been perfectly predictable, and really hasn't pleasantly surprised in a single area.

I've thankfully been almost able to forget that Gooden is on this roster. That was until I heard Vinny talk about what an asset Drew would be when he comes back after the New Orleans game. When they were both playing I had a hard time deciding whether Gooden or Nocioni annoyed me more. But, this may be a good test to find out if Vinny has learned anything from this last month. If he passes this test there may be hope for him yet. For the past two years it seems like as soon as I get to an optimisitc place again, it's right back to the same old crap.

Aaron Gray

Thankfully the Aaron Gray love seems to subsided or his most ardent fans have left for more welcoming surroundings. I don't feel like I have to emphasize why he sucks. He's a successful 2nd round pick and serves a purpose against Yao and Shaq, but Gray playing 26% of the time feels like a crime against basketball. But, then again that's not only the crime against basketball Vinny has committed this season.

This year's team has treated Gray like Noah and basically ignored him. His usage% has fallen to 13.7% after the Boylan insisted on ffeding him the ball to the tune of 22% as a rookie. That might be too big of a swing since Gray has no defensive value and really only has offensive value if he's scoring in the post, but it's closer to the ideal.

Defensively we're talking about player that is commiting 7 fouls per 36 minutes for the 2nd straight season. And the list of players that have done that is not impressive. I don't see how he gets much better defensively given his physical limitations. He's so top heavy that he can't play with any any knee bend or balance. But, Vinny didn't do him any favors by starting him alongside Gooden. And awful as Gray is there are still times where I'd rather have him on the court than Gooden or Nocioni because Gray won't take a shot outside of 10 feet, and his teammates will largely ignore him. If Vinny would make sure that only one of Nocioni, Gooden, and Gray is ever on the court at anytime, it'd go a long way toward lowering my aggravation level.

A Last Appeal for the White Whale

I know the recent buzz is about Bosh and Amare, and rightfully so, but I'd still be really content with Brad Miller if he can be had without involving Thomas or Noah. There's a reason he has had a consistently high adjusted plus/minus, including this season. His gae is a great fit with with Noah and Thomas up front, and no worse defensively than the guys who have played 50% of the minutes at center this season His passing would make Deng and others more effective on offense,and he's a great pick and roll counterpart for Rose. Depending on who was involved in the trades, I could see a Miller trade having a bigger impact over the next year and a half than a Stoudemire or Bosh trade, while leaving open the opportunity to sign someone in 2010 when Miller's contract expires. But, of course this comes from someone who has been a consistent believer in Tyrus.