SB Nation User Blog: Scottwood

The Rise of Justin Verlander

Scottwood — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 16:48:04 -0000

With all of the talk centering around the Tigers turning down a deal for Roy Halladay, lets look at what our current staff ace has done this season...

Last year, Verlander was the talk of Detroit. But, it was for all of the wrong reasons. He ended the season with a 4.84 ERA, 17 losses and the most walks issued in his 3 year career. He had gone from the No-hitter and All Star golden boy to the fans whipping boy. Of course, those who looked at his peripheral numbers (like his 4.18 FIP) would have noticed that his numbers did not defer much from the season he had in 2006 when he was the talk of baseball, and won rookie of the year. Alas, more was expected of Verlander last year and he failed to deliver.

Flash forward to this season, though, and everything is turning up aces (pun intended). Verlander has the 4th best FIP in MLB at 2.71, the 2nd best K/9 ratio, 11th best K/BB, 10th best tRA, 7th best WPA, and his 5.1 WAR (maybe my favorite stat) is 4th best in the game. Basically, by nearly every advanced measure, Verlander has turned into a legit shutdown ace this season. He is without question one of the top 10 pitchers in the game and has been in the top 5 this season in the AL with the likes of Greinke, Halladay, Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez.

So, what has changed? Before this season, Verlander's career best FIP was 3.99 in 2007. That is generally reserved for good #2 starters (Edwin Jackson, for example, has a FIP of 3.89). Now, he has the 4th best FIP in the game. What caused such a resurgence? For one, Chuck Hernandez is gone. The days of trying to adjust Verlander's arm slot appears to be over and he seems to work well under new pitching coach, Rick Knapp. Knapp came to Detroit from the Minnesota Twins organization which prides itself on throwing strikes. That hardly seems like a revolutionary concept but considering that the Tigers had the 4th worst BB/9 ratio is MLB last year, then it became a much needed philosophy. At the time of the hire, it seemed like a perfect fit. Take a guy from an organization who rarely walks batters (lowest BB/9 ratio in MLB last year) and put him with flamethrowers who can strike out and walk the park. Then, with a little magic, the hope was that Knapp's influence would keep the K rates the same (or even better) and drastically cut down on the walks. If nothing else, the hire has been a match made in Heaven for Verlander. He has dropped his BB/9 ratio from 3.90 last season to 2.66 this season. Meanwhile, he has upped his K/9 ratio from 7.30 to 10.65. All told, his K/BB ratio has improved from 1.87 ( 64th last year among 88 qualified starters) to 4.00 this season.

Ok, so he has struck out more and walked less. He also has not had a pitching coach attempt to change the mechanics or arm slot angle of that golden arm of his. Surely, that cannot be it. And, it isn't. Last season, Verlander threw his fastball at an average of 93.6 MPH. This season, he has wowed the ladies with a fastball that averages 95.5 MPH. That 2 MPH increase in velocity and improved movement and location has led to a fastball that has saved 17.8 runs this season, according to Fan Graphs. Of the qualified pitchers, Verlander's fastball has been the 4th best fastball in MLB this season. In comparison, last year, Verlander had a fastball that saved just 0.4 runs.

Another change with Verlander has been the difference in his pitch selection compared to last season and his career norms. Verlander was always a plus curveball pitcher and it has been his second best pitch over his career. This year, he is throwing his curveball and fastball more than at any other point in his career. On the other hand, he is throwing his changeup just 8.5% of the time this season. That is a far cry from the changeup he elected to throw nearly 16 % of the time last season. In addition to that, Verlander is also throwing his slider now more than he ever has before. It is still nowhere near a plus pitch but the experimenting with a 4th pitch, an increased reliance on his deadly fastball and curveball and a reduced reliance on his changeup might be one of the telling points in his comeback season.

Looking at the plate discipline stats for the batters that Verlander has faced, the improvement he has made this season is even more telling. For one, batters are swinging at 27.8% of pitches outside the stike zone. That is a 3% increase from last season. Also, batters are swining at his pitches inside the strike zone less so than they have at any other point in his career. Thus, the ensuing stats are not surprising. A batters O-Contact % against Verlander (percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone) is down a full 10 % from last season. Batters are connecting on just 56% of those pitches. The opposing batters are also hitting pitches inside the strike zone less so then at any other point in Verlander's career. From Verlander's perspective, he is throwing 55.5 % of his pitches for strikes (just 50% last year), and his first strike % of 63.1 is a 5% increase of his total last year.

In summary, Verlander is/has ...

1. Striking more guys out
2. Walking fewer batters
3. Increased the velocity on his fastball by 2 MPH
4. Improved the location, command and movement on his fastball
5. Relied more heavily on his fastball and curveball while throwing half as many changeups
6. Throwing more strikes within the zone that batters are not swinging at
7. Inducing the most swing and misses of pitches outside of the strike zone of his career by a substantial margin.
8. Not being coached by Chuck Hernandez
9. Being guided by Rick Knapp
10. Awesome

All together, it accounts for the numbers that bear repeating: Verlander has the 4th best FIP in MLB at 2.71, the 2nd best K/9 ratio, 11th best K/BB, 10th best tRA, 7th best WPA, and the 4th best WAR. He has turned himself into maybe the rarest thing in baseball... a true, shutdown ace. Now, as fans, all we can do is sit back and enjoy the pleasure that is watching him pitch. The scary thing? He's only 26 and has another decade of terrorizing hitters left in him. Good luck, American League hitters.

Tigers #4 and #5 pitchers not as bad as some might assume

Scottwood — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 04:07:12 -0000

I wrote this and researched the numbers a couple of days ago, but the ERA totals will still be close and the point still stands. I think the numbers were pretty interesting...

I think it would be interesting to see how other teams #4 or #5 starters have done in the AL and to examine if perhaps we have too high expectations for our back of the rotation guys. I will do a team by team breakdown in order of overall team starters ERA in the AL.

Seattle

-They have the best ERA amongst starting pitcher ERA’s at 3.90, the best WHIP and third best FIP. So, they have a good starting rotation. No doubt about that. Erik Bedard has had some injury troubles this year but has posted a 2.47 ERA. Felix Hernandez has a 2.54 ERA and Jarrod Washburn has a 3.22 ERA. That is as good as it gets for your top 3 starters. But, how about their #4 and #5 starters? This is where it gets dicey. No other starter has more than 10 starts, and no one has an ERA below 4. Jason Vargas has been their best next starter with 9 starts and a 4.06 ERA. And, even he has a FIP of 4.91 After that, Seattle has just been piecing things together for their #5 starter. Morrow has been injured most of the year. That has left 3 #5 starters competing for starts (think Miner, Willis and Figaro) with a combined ERA of 6.75. Sound familiar? So, the best rotation in the AL basically has no true #5 starter and a #4 starter who is posting similar numbers to Porcello. The one true difference between our rotation and their rotation is that they have an additional top of the rotation starter and we do not. Jackson and Verlander would qualify as #1 and #2 starters for them, and Porcello and Galaragga would fit in with their #4 and #5 starters.

White Sox

-Second best ERA, 7th best FIP, tied for second in WHIP. They have an unusually low BABIP so their rotation numbers should start looking worse. For now, we will just breakdown what is a top 5 rotation, at least, in the AL. They have gone with six starters this year. I will count Clayton Richard and Bartolo Colon as combined #4 starters for them. Unlike the Mariners, the Sox only have one true front of the rotation starter in Mark Buehrle and his 3.26 ERA. John Danks and Gavin Floyd have been inning eaters, but they have similar ERA numbers to Porcello. So, we have a better top 3 than they do. Their #4 starters in Bartolo Colon and Richard have an ERA of roughly 4.3 so that is one advantage they have over us. However, like Seattle, their 5th starter is not good. Jose Contreras has a 5.19 ERA and has only been slightly better than Galaragga. To recap: we are fortunate to have Verlander and Jackson, while they basically have 1 #1 starter and 3 #3 starters. There #5 starter has struggled just like ours.

Royals

-3rd in ERA, 1st in FIP, tied for second in WHIP. Good rotation or the Zack Greinke show? The latter. Greinke is the Cy Young winner of today and I won’t dazzle you with all of his numbers. But, he does have a 1.95 ERA and it is legit. Gil Meche is their #2 starter and he has a 4.27 ERA. Brian Bannister has a 4.17 ERA but has 3 less starts. Kyle Davies is really their #4 starter with 14 starts. He has a 5.76 ERA. Luke Hochevar and Sidney Ponson are their #5 starters and they have an ERA of roughly 5.5. Again, Verlander and Jackson give us an advantage that few teams have. Porcello fits in nicely as the #3 starter and our #4 and #5 starters are similar to their starters.

Angels

Tied for 4th in ERA with the Tigers. 8th in FIP and 6th in WHIP. Like every year, the Angels have dealt with a lot of injuries. Jared Weaver is a bona fide #1 with a 2.65 ERA. Joe Saunders is their #2 with 15 starts and 3.66 ERA. So, our top #2 compares favorably to there top 2. Then, they have had to piece together the starts. I guess we can count the combo of Darren Oliver/ Sean O’Sullivan/ Kelvim Escobar/ Dustin Moseley/ Shane Loux as the #3 starters (even though that is Lackey). But, for our purposes, they have a combined ERA in their 14 starts of roughly 4.00. Again, Porcello looks like a legit #3 on all teams except Seattle. Lackey has been hurt a lot, has only 9 starts and has an ERA of 5.06. Matt Palmer is 7-1 but has an ERA of 5.11. Their #4 and #5 starters are slightly better than ours but they each have an ERA above 5.

Blue Jays

6th in ERA, 4th in FIP, 5th in WHIP. Good solid rotation. A true #1 in Halladay with his 2.56 ERA. Ricky Romero has only started 10 times but has a 3.20 ERA. Scott Richmond has a 3.64 ERA, and Brian Tallet has a 4.33 ERA. Before last night, we basically had the same top 3 as they did, in terms of ERA. We do not have a #4 starter like they do. But, 7 other guys have pitched for them and they have an ERA above 5. Again, that sounds like us. Quick recap, again. No #5 starter has an ERA below 5, yet. Our top 3 competes very favorably. Our #4 is below average.

Athletics

-7th in ERA, 9th in FIP, 11th in WHIP. Second tier rotation with a lot of injuries. Sums up their season. Dallas Braden, Josh Outman (who is down with shoulder surgery now), Trevor Cahill are there #1, 2 and 3. Braden has a 3.26 ERA, Outman has a 3.58 ERA and Cahill has a 4.23 ERA. Anderson is their #4 starter with a 5.45 ERA. They do not have a set #5 guy, but Mazarro does have a surprising 2.95 ERA in his limited starts. The other starters, though, have a combined ERA above 6.

Rangers

-8th in ERA, 13th in FIP, 8th in WHIP. Lowest BABIP in the league. Kevin Milwood’s numbers are going to drop. No doubt about it. But, for now, he has a 2.64 ERA. Scott Feldman has a 3.30 ERA. Vincente Padilla has a 4.75 ERA, Brendan McCarthy has a 4.92 ERA and Matt Harrison has a 6.11 ERA. They have had some injuries, but each of these guys have 10 starts or more. Like most teams, their #4 and #5 starters have ERA’s floating around 5 or above.

Twins

-9th in ERA ,5th in FIP, 4th in WHIP. Nick Blackburn has a 3.10 ERA. Not an ideal #1 starter but he has done the job so far. Then, they have a bunch of 3 or 4 starters. Slowey has a 4.41 ERA and somehow has 10 wins. Perkins has a 4.70 ERA, and Baker has a 5.17 ERA. Liriano continues to struggle after that great 2006. He has a 5.62 ERA. Our back end of the rotation, like it is to a lot of teams, is similar to there back of the rotation. Our top starters are head and shoulder above them.

Red Sox

-10th in ERA, 2nd in FIP, 11th in WHIP. Unbelievably high BABIP. Disappointing year for these set of arms, though. Beckett has a 3.48 ERA. Wakefield has a 4.18 ERA and Jon Lester has a 4.35 ERA. Brad Penny has a 4.79 ERA. Dice-K has been a mess with an ERA of 8.23. Justin Masterson has an ERA of 4.58 in his six starts. Still, they do not have a #5 starter after having moved Masterson to the bullpen. There back of the rotation is a disaster just like ours and they are a favorite to win the World Series. What they do have is one more reliable starter. What they don’t have is a 1-2 punch like Verlander and Jackson.

Yankees

-11th in ERA, 10th in FIP, 10th in WHIP. Below average rotation. Sabathia has an ERA of 3.55. Chamberlain has an ERA of 3.81. Burnett has an ERA of 3.93. Pettite has an ERA of 4.38 with 90 IP and is a pretty ideal #4 starter. They have no #5 starter as Hughes and Wang have been absolute disasters. We have a better top of the rotation. They have an ideal #4. We each are without a #5 starter.

Rays

12th in ERA, 11th in FIP, 9th in WHIP. Below average rotation for a contending team. James Shields has an ERA of 3.41. Matt Garza has an ERA of 3.61, and Jeff Nieman has an ERA of 3.95. Until they started using David Price as a starter, they were without a #4 or 5 starter they could rely on. Andy Sonnanstine is one of the worst pitchers in the AL with a 6.61 ERA and Scott Kazmir has a 7.28 ERA. Having Price helps some of their problems, but they do not have a reliable #5 starter. Noticing a trend here?

Orioles

-13th in ERA, last in FIP, 13th in WHIP. Yeah, they are awful. I’ll keep this short. The Orioles best starter, Bradley Bergesen, has a 3.76 ERA. Koji Uehara has a 4.05 ERA. Jeremy Guthrie has a 5.11 ERA. After that, they pick a name out of a hat and throw them out there to pitch. Combined ERA for their #4 and 5 starters of over 6.

Indians

-Last in ERA, 12th in FIP, last in WHIP. Terrible rotation even with a legit #1 in Cliff Lee. Lee has a 2.92 ERA and one of the top 10 pitchers in the game. After that, the Indians’ two most common starters are Carl Pavano and Fausto Carmona. Pavano has a 5.56 ERA and Carmona has a7.42 ERA. Those are supposed to be their #2 and #3 starters. I’m not even going to talk about their back of the rotation guys. Be thankful you are not an Indians fan this year.

Wow, that is a lot of info. To summarize…

-The only teams that have a 1-2 punch like us are Seattle, LA Angels, Blue Jays and Rangers. And, realistically, the Blue Jays and Rangers duo will not keep that up.
- Only the Mariners have a better #3 starter than we have in Porcello. He matches up well with the #3 starters or combined starters for the White Sox, Royals, Angels, Blue Jays and Athletics. We have a very good #3 starter as long as Porcello keeps this up.
-What we do lack is a true #4 starter. Seattle, the White Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Red Sox and Yankees all have more reliable #4 starters than we do. And, with Price now in the Rays rotation, they have a good #4 starter. The other teams, though, are just piecing together the rotation in that spot. If we can find another starter who can give us a 4.5 ERA or so, we will be right where we need to be in that regard.
- If we count Galaragga as our #5 starter, then we should actually be thankful that he has been eating innings. EVERY team in the AL has a #5 starter with an ERA above 5, and many do not have a guy they consistently throw out there and often have combined ERA’s above 6. If Galaragga is our #5, then we should be fine with that. His numbers suggest that we should be, anyway.
-If we find one more reliable starter, a guy who can be a true #4 with a 4.5 ERA and an innings eater (which is probably something Zack Miner would provide) we would have a rotation that is as good as any in the AL with all things considered. So, that is something to think about when evaluating Galaragga and our back of the rotation starters. No team has a reliable #5 starter and only half have a reliable #4.

Could Lucas French be our Zach Miner circa 2006?

Scottwood — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 16:40:30 -0000

During our pennant run in 2006 we featured a great top 4 of the rotation of Kenny Rogers, Justin Verlander, Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman. Once Mike Maroth went down with an injury, we needed someone else to come in and shore up our pitching staff. Enter Zach Miner. Before his final two disastrous starts, Miner had a 4.27 ERA in 14 starts, 11 starts where he went at least 5 innings and he did not walk more than 3 batters in any of those starts. Miner's ability to add that stability at the back end of the rotation for two and a half months helped pave the way for the Tigers to earn a playoff spot that season. The question now becomes: can Lucas French provide that same type of stability at the back end of rotation? Lets make some comparisons by looking at the numbers...

In 2006, Miner was 6-0 and had a 2.82 ERA with a 3.38 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in Toledo. This season in Toledo, French is 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA, 3.16 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. Those are fairly comparable numbers and one could argue that French has superior numbers. But, the comparisons should not stop there, and French's numbers will continue to look better.

Player K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 .AVG BABIP LOB %
French 7.93 2.20 3.60 0.66 .236 .291 71.8
Miner 5.71 3.10 1.84 1.06 .230 .283 75.2%

So, when looking at their minor league stats for that year, French had superior numbers except for batting average against and LOB %. His superior K/9, BB/9, K/BB, HR/9 rate, WHIP and FIP is certainly more than encouraging as he makes his case for the rotation.