S.T.S's Best: The Catchers

As the weeks pass, I'll be breaking down the Sally's best by position. As a former catcher, I found it fitting to begin with the best catchers the Sally had in 2009. Please keep in mind, this will not be based on potential fantasy value, but on the combination of offensive/defensive ability combined with the chance the player has to stay at the position. Players I haven't seen in person will be italicized as I want readers to know I'm going strictly from reports and statistics which are much different than watching a player in person. I usually shy away from writing about prospects I haven't seen, but if I want a complete list, I find I have no choice.

1. Tony Sanchez, Pirates - The 4th overall pick in the 2009 draft, Sanchez batted a robust .316/.415/.561 in just over 150 at bats. From all accounts, he performed awfully well earning his second promotion since being signed. He should be in Pittsburgh by 2011 and will likely be entrenched as Pittsburgh's starter by 2012. I hated this pick when it was made. In retrospect, the Pirates ability to sign Sanchez immediately, along with their over slot signings turned out fantastic for the Bucs.

2. Travis D'Arnaud, Phillies - Quite possibly the best all-around player I've seen pass through Savannah this season, D'Arnaud left a great impression on me. He hit the ball hard to all fields, played stellar defense, and excellent athleticism for a catcher. I know a .255/.319/.419 line is pretty blah, but his .279 BABIP seems awfully low considering his .330+ mark in 2008 and strong K%. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't break out in a big way in 2010.

3. Derek Norris, Nationals - With a .286/.413/.513 line, Norris was probably the best power prospect to pass through the league during the 2009 season. However, his glove is apparently shotty at best and few would be surprised if he's moved out from behind the plate and over to first. As a first baseman, he would rank the leagues top prospect at the position. Too many questions about his catching ability remain for me to rank him any higher than 3rd.

4. Tim Federowicz, Red Sox - After starting a bit slow, Federowicz caught fire and was promoted to Salem after posting a .345/.393/.562 line in 226 at bats. The best defender behind the dish I've seen this season, he worked well with his staff and completely shut down the Savannah running game. At the plate, he drove the ball to all fields and was the best hitter on the field in two of the three contests. His current age (22), plate discipline, and struggles with Salem keep him from a higher ranking.

5. Josh Phegley, White Sox - The 38th overall selection in the 2009 draft, Phegley's ability to handle a pitching staff, throwing arm, and propensity for driving the ball hard to the opposite field really impressed me. With his poor defensive reputation, I watched him from a number of different angles and saw nothing which would lead me to believe he could not be a serviceable big league backstop. He's not Jackson Williams behind the plate, but he certainly is not Jesus Montero either.

Honorable Mention - Jesus Sucre, Braves - in 169 Sally at bats, Sucre posted a .325/.352/.432 line prior to earning a promotion to Myrtle Beach. With excellent contact skills and solid, but unspectacular defense, I can see him becoming a solid big league backup down the road. However, he needs to work on controlling his emotions behind the dish as he showed up his pitchers on a handful of occasions.

MVP, MVP - Jordan Pacheco, Rockies - Yes, Pacheco was the Sally MVP. No, he's not a legitimate prospect at this point as his age (23) is just too old to warrant serious prospect consideration.

Catcher in Listing Only - Ryan Lavarnway, Red Sox - In posting a .285/.367/.540 line in Greenville, people have asked about Lavarnway as a catching prospect. In actuality, Lavarnway has played plenty of DH, 1B, and even enough OF for me to comfortably say his future does not lie behind the plate.

Big Disappointment - Jacob Jefferies, Rays - Jefferies contact tool is his best asset, his .261/.326/.359 line was downright crummy for a high round college pick. Even more worrisome is that he was not even the starting catcher in Bowling Green. Yikes!

Vultures Circling the Carcass - Kyle Skipworth, Marlins - In speaking with a couple of people who have seen Skipworth on multiple occasions, I have heard nothing but bad things about his all-around game. Long swing, poor contact tool, difficulty defensively, I've heard it all. He's still young, but his triple slash line has been equally awful since his signing and he's going to need to repeat the Sally at 20. At this point, he's looking like the dud of the 2008 draft class.

Check out Scouting The Sally for more on MILB's top prospects.

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Monday, August 24, 2009

Shortstop Showdown - Flores vs. Beckham

Since squaring off in the Appapachian League, the question keeps coming up over and over again. If you had to choose one, would it be Tim Beckham or Wilmer Flores? The answer is much more difficult than two lines in a baseball chat box allow.

In seeing both play this season, I'm not even sure I know the answer. Neither Flores nor Beckham have performed like the elite prospects they were billed to be. Do they both have strengths? Absolutely, but both have glaring weaknesses as well. Instead of simply saying which I prefer and why, I wanted to break each down based on tools and projection and give readers an opportunity to weigh in.

Age - Advantage Flores: At a year and a half younger than Beckham, Flores is playing the 2009 season as a 17-year old. Beckham is young for the league as well at 19, but Flores' moderate success in full season baseball is much more impressive than the raw numbers indicate.

Bonus - Advantage Mets: With Flores receiving less than 15% of the bonus awarded to Beckham, the Mets have much less to lose should Flores not pan out. I've discussed Beckham's bonus in a previous piece, and simply don't see his being worth ten times what other shortstop prospects in the league have received.

Physical Projection - Advantage Flores: At 6'3", Flores has shed weight over the course of the season leaving what is essentially an empty canvas for the Mets organization to develop. At a listed 175 lbs., he's a player who can gain 30+ pounds on his way up the Mets organization ladder. Beckham, with his already fully developed lower body, doesn't have the frame to handle more weight. He may even be a guy who needs to redistribute some of the weight he has gained in his lower body to remain agile enough to man a position in the middle of the field.

Maturity - Advantage Beckham: While Wilmer Flores' approach has improved leaps and bounds this season, Beckham handled his business as professional should. If one did not know who Beckham was, he or she would have had no idea Beckham was a former #1 overall pick from the way he carried himself on the field.

Contact - Advantage Flores: At 17, a K% of 14.1% is pretty obscene. Beckham's K% sits a full ten points higher and he showed an inability to make solid contact versus breaking pitches when I watched him in person. Beckham's contact issues are correctable, but Flores' contact ability is simply uncanny for a player of his age who is still so raw.

Power - Advantage Flores: At present, Beckham is showing more power than Flores. However, if you consider the age difference and Flores' room to fill out, power projection favors Flores considerably. Beckham may become a 12-15 home run player in the bigs, but Flores has the potential for 20+ or more annually.

Fielding - Advantage Beckham: Better foot speed and athleticism gives Beckham the range advantage and the nod on footwork. He's also a much more fluid fielder. However, Flores does very well with balls in front of him and I'm impressed with the way he charges everything to cut down the distance on his throws to first base.

Arm Strength - Advantage Beckham: While Flores' arm grows stronger as the year continues to progress, Beckham already posesses a plus arm from what I've seen. Flores' arm will never be more than average at best.

Speed - Advantage Beckham: Flores, nicknamed "Tortuga" or "Turtle" by his teammates is a true 20 runner on the 20-80 scale. Beckham has slightly above average speed which he hasn't been able to translate into more than mediocre stolen base percentages which may not improve as time goes on.

With both players having very different skill sets, they grade out to be near equal on paper. What tips this showdown into Flores' favor for me is the bonus Flores received. Beckham may very well have a higher floor, but at less than 15% of the bonus given to Beckham, Flores not panning out would be a drop in the bucket compared to the amount the Rays invested in Beckham.

Scouting Report - Tim Federowicz, C, Red Sox

As I sit down to write this piece on Tim Federowicz, I can't help but feel a little dejected as all of the positive things I have to say about his game are probably par for the course right about now as he is currently one of the hottest players in all of minor league baseball (when I watched him play, Federowicz was hitting .254, not .328). It's one of those "doh" moments where I would have completed this scouting report six weeks ago had I known his production would match the things I had to say about him so quickly. Unfortunately, it's one of those times where my post series research on Federowicz moved him to the back burner. Sometimes statistics and metrics just don't tell the whole story about a player.

Over the past three years, the Red Sox have made a concerted effort to draft catchers in the hope of developing an heir apparent to Jason Varitek from within. Federowicz could be that guy. The former North Carolina Tar Heel product was the Red Sox 7th round pick in the 2008 draft and is already paying dividends has he was recently named a Sally League all-star.

Offense: With a good idea at the plate, Federowicz was a base hit machine in the couple of games I saw him. He took an inside fastball over the left field fence for a home run, took breaking balls back up the middle for base hits, and was clearly the teams most polished all-around hitter. His swing was fluid, and his bat speed was a tick above average. On the negative side, his pre-swing load was all but non-existent which could limit his power potential. With no visible load, his forward drive through the ball could cause him to become off balanced from time to time. Federowicz was also a "grip it and rip it" hitter. It was easy to tell he wasn't interested in a walk and wasn't going to be cheated at the plate.

Defense: Excellent footwork and a strong arm, Federowicz should continue to throw out more than his share of runners as he moves up through the system. In throwing out a runner in game action, Federowicz' throw was never higher than about three feet off of the ground. His release was the quickest I've seen at this level in the three to four years I've been watching Sally games. Behind the plate, he had a strong presence and managed the staff well. He also squared up well when blocking balls and it was easy to tell the staff had full confidence in his defensive abilities from pitch locations.

Speed: Well, he's a catcher isn't he? Joking aside, Federowicz wasn't slow for the position and would be considered an "athletic" catcher.

On the field, Federowicz certainly isn't the most exciting player to watch. However, he does his job as well as any player in the Sally league. Nearing twenty-two, I expect the Red Sox to find a way to promote him soon as he obviously needs more of a test offensively. With Mark Wagner's success in the Eastern League, and Luis Exposito with more than 400 A+ at bats, the call is likely to come sooner, rather than later. In the future, Federowicz' defense should allow him a long career as a big league backup at a minimum. With continued refinement of his pitch selection, he could be a productive starter on both offense and defense.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Game Report: Jay Austin, OF, HOU

Jay Austin (2-5, 2B, 3 R, SB) - At 18, the Houston Astros aggressively promoted Jay Austion to the Sally after posting a paltry .198/.277/.236 line while stealing 14 bases in 20 attempts. Currently, Austin sports a .224/.281/.279 including 8 steals in 16 attempts; Not quite the table setter the Astros expected when he was drafted 56th overall in the 2008 draft. However, he was arguably the best player on the field the evening I watched him play as he logged two hits, a stolen base, and three runs scored in leading Lexington to victory. Maybe I saw Austin at his absolute best, nonetheless, it was a glimpse into what Austion could be.

Physique - His listed height of 5'11" seemed about right as I sat just a few feet away from him watching Ross Seaton warm up in the bullpen. He looked lean and strong with the ability to possibly pack 10-15 more pounds of muscle onto his frame without losing much speed. An excellent athlete, he's definitely more tools than production at this point and will likely need ample time to adjust to professional baseball.

Offense - A pure speedster, Austin has a good understanding of his job at the plate. He burned the a shallow playing Gnats left fielder for a double, took another pitch for a line drive to left center field, and hit a couple of ground balls up the middle. Austin's bat control was advanced for his age and level, and I'm surprised the player I watched has struggled to remain above the Mendoza line throughout his young career. One concern is his lack of pop as he doesn't project to hit for much, if any power. What adjustments will Austin make now that outfielders are starting to really play shallow. From a statistical standpoint, his K% dropping 11.2% from rookie level to A, as well as a seemingly low career BABIP of .282, Austin might just start clicking sooner rather than later.

Speed - Austin's struggles stealing bases may come from a slow first step. Once at full speed, he's as fast as they come, but it did take him a few steps to get the wheels moving. During the game, he scored easily on a single which would have been, at best a bang bang play for most baserunners. He also scored easily from first on a double and stole a base with ease. Expect Austin's stolen base percentages to improve with experience as stealing bases is more of an acquired skill than many understand.

Defense - With plenty of speed to burn, Austin is able to cover quite a bit of ground. In game action, he charged a routine single and attempted to throw an advancing runner out. The one throw was enough for me to seriously question Austin's arm strength and his ability to have even an average arm in the future.

Austin's statistics don't tell the whole story about his game. He simply needs time for his athleticism to translate into production. At 18, he could even repeat the Sally in 2010 and be young for the league. Patience will be key for the Astros....and prospect junkies as Austin might not be ready for top prospect status until 2011.

Scouting Report: Elvin Ramirez, SP, New York Mets

Elvin Ramirez is off to a solid start in 2009 as his ERA currently sits at 3.40 through ten Sally League starts. However, at 21, a 34/21 K/BB ratio in 50 1/3 innings leaves something to be desired. While he has had some success, from watching him a couple of times, nothing in his repertoire tells me he is primed and ready to move up to the FSL.

Physique: At 6'3", the big righty is an intimidating presence with his powerful lower body and muscular frame. He's the most impressive Sand Gnats starter from a purely physical standpoint, but likely has little room for future projection.

Mound Presence: Versus Andrew Brackman, he was staked to a one run lead and seemed to take his intensity to a new level. When I saw him a second time, the confidence I had seen during his first outing had turned into his simply trying to overthrow his way out of trouble. When he learns to be more consistent, he should level out some, but this would go a long way in explaining his inconsistent outings.

Fastball: His best pitch, it features above average velocity, but the offering is relatively straight and does not fool opposing hitters. Topping out at 94, the pitch is generally in the 91-93 range making it consistently the hardest offering I've seen this season. In his start against Andrew Brackman, he was the harder thrower. With easy arm action at 90 MPH he can and will continue to maintain his velocity deep into games.

Curve ball: Flashing average on rare occasion, Ramirez works in two pitches earlier than most Sally league pitchers do. However, the pitch is slower than it probably should be (75 MPH average) and lacks bite. He also only uses the pitch early or ahead in the count and relies solely on his fastball in key situations. I've seen a number of hitters taking an at bat 10-12 pitches because Ramirez simply does not have an out pitch. With his curve being better than his change, it's his best bet as a consistent second offering, but it's a long ways from being a pitch which will make batters swing and miss.

Change up: A rudimentary third pitch at this point, his velocity is fine at 83-84 MPH. In games, he rarely uses the pitch and when he does, it lacks the movement and deception to make much difference. I can see him scrapping the pitch in the future and becoming a two pitch relief pitcher.

So far this year, Ramirez has been the epitome of an average pitcher both in box scores and in person. His being unable to strike opposing hitters out in key situations prolongs innings and raises his pitch counts. While I don't doubt his make up, I question whether or not his repertoire is going to improve much in the near future. He just seems to have less of a feel for pitching than a number of his younger teammates which leaves him as more of a thrower than pitcher.

Game Report: Kelvin Marte, SP, San Francisco Giants

Kelvin Marte - (3 1/3 IP, O ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K) - Listed as a 6'0" righty on many sites, I was a bit surprised to see a small, lefty take the mound for the GreenJackets. Information on Marte is hard to find, but his 2.53 ERA over two levels in 2008 including a 41/14 K/BB ratio was deserving of a closer look. Currently 21 1/2, Marte has been on the minor league disabled list for three weeks. At the time of his injury, Marte had a 3.00 ERA in five starts with a 11/8 K/BB ratio in 21 innings. Those numbers don't tell the whole story, however, as Marte held opponents scoreless in four of his five outings.

• Well under 6'; Likely in the 5'9" range
• Medium build; Very little in the way of physical projection
• 88-90 in the first inning; Worked fastball in and out with some effectiveness
• Climbed the ladder with a 3 pitch strikeout; Fastballs registered 87-88-89 consecutively
• From third inning on, fastball dropped to 85-87 MPH
  
• Threw curve/slurve at 76 MPH
• Hung a number of breaking balls to start the game
• Changeup 80-82 MPH; Late drop and fade; Kept the ball low and outside well; Out pitch?
• Threw too many pitches; Struggled with efficiency throughout

Overall, Marte threw well, but tired quickly. I can see a scenario where he becomes the prototypical LOOGY out of a big league bullpen scrapping his rudimentary breaking ball and relying heavily on a two pitch mix featuring a potential plus changeup and average fastball.

Game Report: Francisco Peguero, OF, San Francisco Giants

Francisco Peguero (0-5, 1 K) - At 20, Francisco Peguero posted a .285/.330/.393 line across two levels while swiping 25 bags in 29 attempts during the 2008 season. Currently scheduled for short season baseball once again, Peguero lasted only 25 at bats in the Sally before being demoted. While a .280/.333/.320 line isn't a horrendous micro sample from a lead off type hitter, I was not particularly impressed with his all around game.

On offense, I was pleased with Peguero's first two at bats as he worked deep counts and hit ground balls back up the middle which I believed at the time to be the work of a speedster attempting to play up to his strengths. However, as he showed the inability to lay down a bunt, or make solid contact, I began to think his first couple of at bats were more the product of a player not being able to get around on a good fastball than anything else. With his lanky build, I openly wonder if pitchers wouldn't be well served to just throw fastballs in in an attempt to knock the bat out of his hands.

When trying to leg out a couple of ground balls, Peguero showed above average foot speed, but nothing to make me say "wow." However, I may be downplaying his running ability a bit as it's quite possible his longer strides could make him seem slower than he actually was.

I wasn't able to really gauge Peguero on defense as it takes 3-4 games to accurately judge an outfielders range and arm strength due to lack of fielding opportunities. With his long stride and foot speed, I would assume Peguero is able to cover gap to gap. If my memory serves me correctly, he did attempt to throw a runner out at third base from center field charging a single and the throw itself wasn't particularly strong for a player whose momentum was taking him in the direction of the play.

Overall, Peguero did nothing to stand out as a player worthy of much attention. His contact skills left much to be desired and he looked to me like an eight or nine hitter in the making. Players like Peguero who rely on speed simply need to get on base more than he does. Additionally, he needs to show the ability to drive the ball a little bit or else opponents will show him little respect leading to fewer bloopers and line drives falling in.

Scouting Report: Sean Ratliff, OF, NYM

This is the former "baseball handyman" with my first report from my new blog.  Hope you all enjoy!

Sean Ratliff's tremendous start to the season has turned some heads as the 4th round pick from the 2008 draft works to establish himself as one of the better outfield prospects in the organization. Currently sporting a .307/.351/.506 line, he's on his way, but Ratliff's game is not without flaws. While he tortures right handers, his inability to hit lefties leaves him as no more than a platoon partner at this point. Can anybody say Ryan Church?

Physique - At 6'3", 215 lbs., Ratliff is a formidable presence on the field. He has a "V" shaped upper body with broad shoulders and a thin waist. His lower half is well defined, but his thin calves and quadriceps make me wonder if he can add much more leg strength without losing whatever speed and athleticism he has. His stance is upright and his actions are a bit mechanical at times. He lacks a fluid swing typical of many left handed hitters.

Offense - Ratliff simply mashes right handed pitching. Over a four game stretch I watched him scorch balls off of Andrew Brackman, Casey Kelly, Stolmy Pimentel, and Bryan Price who are all highly ranked pitching prospects. His pitch recognition is solid as he can turn on 90+ MPH inside fastball and sit back on breaking pitches taking them the other way. He does swing and miss a great deal, but at times shows the ability to make adjustments mid swing and rarely misses a mistake.

Versus lefties, however, Ratliff struggles mightily as he is easily fooled by off speed pitches and seems to have a tough time picking the ball up out of the pitchers hand. He struck out a handful of times looking and is susceptible to fastballs on the outer half. A little chatty, he isn't above giving the home plate umpire an earful either. Due to his picking up the ball late, he will repeat the same swing plane to a variety of different pitches.

Going forward, he needs to be more aggressive with two strikes which might bring down his strikeout totals. Umpires in the Sally aren't the most consistent around so it's ultimately his job to protect the plate and make the necessary adjustments.

Defense - An average all around center fielder, he doesn't do anything to stand out, but makes all the routine plays and can cover ground. Ratliff's arm is solid average, and his overall defensive skill set is better suited for left field; A place he could excel.

Speed - While not a burner, he moves well for a player his size. He has the wheels to leg out a triple and score from second base on a single up the middle. Ratliff's running style is a bit mechanical, but he is a smart base runner who makes the most out of whatever speed and athleticism he has.

Going forward, Ratliff desperately needs to improve his 43/12 K/BB ratio before moving up to Port St. Lucie. It wouldn't be much of a problem at 19, but he's a 22-year old college player whose all-around game should be a bit more refined. To me, his upside is a right-handed half of a left field platoon, or valuable fourth outfielder. Any ideas of him being more than a mid level prospect within the organization would be misguided at this point. Mets fans, temper your enthusiasm!