
Scranton
Jul 01, 2008 Feb 15, 2012 3 1181
a fan of
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Steelers
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Seton Hall Pirates
Pittsburgh Penguins
RSSUser Blog
Pirates acquire Yamaico Navarro from Royals for Pounders and Goris
Unfamiliar with Navarro and Goris. Pounders seemed to be behind the other H.S. pitchers as he was not starting, but did put up good peripherals as a multi-inning reliever.
My Top 35 Prospects. . .Assuming Everyone signs
So, I was bored at work one day after the draft, and I was wondering what our to prospects lists would look like if everyone signed. I decided to do a somewhat objective list, assigning values to ceiling, likeliness to reach ceiling (i.e. how much is projection/hope tools play out), floor, likeliness of floor and chance that the player, due to injury risk or risk of never realizing potential, is a complete bust (I understand that in reality every prospects floor is a bust, but I'm using floor in a sense of value if a player suffers no major setbacks and develops naturally, but never reaches full potential). I put the most weight in ceiling, and I also added or subtracted points based on positional scarcity (with catchers, SS, 2b, and CFs getting points and 1B, Corner OFs and relief pitchers losing points). Obviously, anything like this has a high level of subjectivity, and I may have overlooked some guys. Here is my list:
| 1. Cole |
| 2. Taillon |
| 3. Bell |
| 4. Sanchez |
| 5. Allie |
| 6. Heredia |
| 7. Marte |
| 8. D'Arnaud |
| 9. Locke |
| 10. Cain |
| 11. Owens |
| 12. Wilson |
| 13. Curry |
| 14. Pressley |
| 15.Cunningham |
| 16. Morris |
| 17. Dickerson |
| 18. ZVR |
| 19. Fryer |
| 20. Hernandez |
| 21. Lambo |
| 22. Pounders |
| 23. McPherson |
| 24. Moreno |
|
25. Grossman 26. Dodson |
| 27. Hererra |
| 28. Hague |
| 29. Mercer |
| 30. Cayones |
| 31. Gift |
| 32. Grovatt |
| 33. Farrell |
| 34. Holt |
|
35. Rojas |
My 2011 Projections
I tried my hand at some projections for the 2011 season. To this point, I have gotten through our probable starting 8 position players and have decided to post them to see what people think.
My methodology was to look at the player's past 3 seasons (using minor league numbers if necessary) and get the following rates per PA: Ks, BBs, 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, HBP, SF, SH. Then I projected a number of PAs for 2011 and a 2011 BABIP based on the past three seasons. I adjusted the rates (albeit, amateurishly) for age (better if young, stagnant for 26-29 down if 30+), league and park effects. I then did some minor tweaks based on the eye test (VERY minor, like a hit here or there). With the data, I came up with BA/OBP/SLUG. I parsed out Jones and Diaz v rt and left. Here are my results, let me know what you think:
Tabata: 292/349/404
Walker: 278/335/446
McCutchen: 289/378/471
Alvarez: 269/354/498
Overbay: 251/342/431
Jones v. left: 221/260/397. Jones v right: 268/335/449, Jones total: 262/325/442
Diaz v. left: 296/333/479. Diaz v. right: 247/308/371, Diaz total: 276/323/435
Jones/Diaz total (since they kinda will be used as one player): 267/324/440
Snyder: 212/329/371
Cedeno: 247/291/365
If anyone has any interest, I'll share my data/projections for Ks,BBs,2Bs,3Bs etc.
27 comments
|
1 recs |
Tweet
Showing 1 - 3 of 3