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Scranton

Jul 01, 2008 Feb 15, 2012 3 1181

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Unfamiliar with Navarro and Goris. Pounders seemed to be behind the other H.S. pitchers as he was not starting, but did put up good peripherals as a multi-inning reliever.

2 months ago Tiny Scranton 58 comments

Bucs Dugout My Top 35 Prospects. . .Assuming Everyone signs



So, I was bored at work one day after the draft, and I was wondering what our to prospects lists would look like if everyone signed.  I decided to do a somewhat objective list, assigning values to ceiling, likeliness to reach ceiling (i.e. how much is projection/hope tools play out), floor, likeliness of floor and chance that the player, due to injury risk or risk of never realizing potential, is a complete bust (I understand that in reality every prospects floor is a bust, but I'm using floor in a sense of value if a player suffers no major setbacks and develops naturally, but never reaches full potential).  I put the most weight in ceiling, and I also added or subtracted points based on positional scarcity (with catchers, SS, 2b, and CFs getting points and 1B, Corner OFs and relief pitchers losing points).  Obviously, anything like this has a high level of subjectivity, and I may have overlooked some guys.  Here is my list:

1. Cole
2. Taillon
3. Bell
4. Sanchez
5. Allie
6. Heredia
7. Marte
8. D'Arnaud
9. Locke
10. Cain
11. Owens
12. Wilson
13. Curry
14. Pressley
15.Cunningham
16. Morris
17. Dickerson
18. ZVR
19. Fryer
20. Hernandez
21. Lambo
22. Pounders
23. McPherson
24. Moreno

25. Grossman

26. Dodson

27. Hererra
28. Hague
29. Mercer
30. Cayones
31. Gift
32. Grovatt
33. Farrell
34. Holt

35. Rojas

27 comments  | 

Bucs Dugout My 2011 Projections


I tried my hand at some projections for the 2011 season.  To this point, I have gotten through our probable starting 8 position players and have decided to post them to see what people think.

 

My methodology was to look at the player's past 3 seasons (using minor league numbers if necessary) and get the following rates per PA:  Ks, BBs, 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, HBP, SF, SH.  Then I projected a number of PAs for 2011 and a 2011 BABIP based on the past three seasons.  I adjusted the rates (albeit, amateurishly) for age (better if young, stagnant for 26-29 down if 30+), league and park effects.  I then did some minor tweaks based on the eye test (VERY minor, like a hit here or there). With the data, I came up with BA/OBP/SLUG.  I parsed out Jones and Diaz v rt and left.  Here are my results, let me know what you think:

 

Tabata:  292/349/404

Walker: 278/335/446

McCutchen: 289/378/471

Alvarez:  269/354/498

Overbay:  251/342/431

Jones v. left:  221/260/397. Jones v right:  268/335/449, Jones total:  262/325/442

Diaz v. left:  296/333/479.  Diaz v. right:  247/308/371, Diaz total:  276/323/435

Jones/Diaz total (since they kinda will be used as one player):  267/324/440

Snyder:  212/329/371

Cedeno:  247/291/365

 

If anyone has any interest, I'll share my data/projections for Ks,BBs,2Bs,3Bs etc.

27 comments  |  1 recs |