I finally got around to reading an article that's been sitting in my browser for a few days: Josh Kalk's analysis of pitch sequencing at The Hardball Times from February 2009.

The whole article is very interesting, but the Kalk's comments on Phil Hughes really jumped out at me. Kalk notes that Hughes is "almost exclusively a two-pitch pitcher (fastball/curveball) so he needs both pitches working to be successful." Then he goes on to comment about Hughes' future as a major leaguer:

It seems pretty clear that Hughes just doesn't have the necessary deception yet and big league hitters are recognizing his curve and either laying off the pitch or hitting it hard. It is very possible that Hughes' great movement was enough to fool minor league hitters and up until this point he never needed to properly disguise the pitch. With the Yankees' rotation looking full after their offseason spending spree, it seems likely Hughes will start the year in Triple-A. He is likely to do well there as he has already shown he can get hitters out at that level, but without some tweaks, I would be very surprised if he had a lot of success at the major league level. Obviously, he is a very young pitcher and has a lot of time to make the proper changes, but it can be hard to work on something at a level where you don't really need to use it to be successful.

Kalk wrote that article after the 2008 season. In 2009, Hughes was pushed to the bullpen for most of the season. Pitchers generally add about 0.7 mph to their fastballs when they move to relief, but Hughes added over 3 mph - his fastball averaged 94.7 mph in his 2009 relief appearances, after averaging 91.0 and 91.2 mph in 2007 and 2008, respectively. In addition, Hughes' curve went from average velocities of 71.2 and 72.2 mph as a starter, way up to 77.5 mph as a reliever. And the results were excellent: in 44 relief appearances (51.1 IP), Hughes struck out 11.40 per nine, walked just 2.28 per nine, gave up just 0.35 home runs per nine, and put up 2.1 fWAR.

His 7 starts that year weren't as effective, mostly because of his awful home run rate - 1.56 HR/9. But that increase in curveball velocity suggests that Hughes did make some changes. He may have altered his grip, or tried a new arm angle, or made any number of other "tweaks" to his pitching style. Regardless of the details, the results are the pretty impressive.

This information makes me wonder if Phil Hughes is a good case for giving Chris Tillman a shot in the bullpen. Sure, Hughes is only one player, and he only pitched about 50 innings of high-level performance before he reverted to giving up homers left and right as a starter. But his history matches up well with Tillman's career arch. Tillman shot through the minors with his excellent curveball, but he hit a wall when he reached the majors. His fastball has seemed too straight and too slow to get by major league hitters, and it's possible that his all-too-hittable fastball has failed to set up his curveball in the majors. He tried working with a cutter, but it just wasn't enough.

Maybe it's time to give Tillman a full season to work with a major league pitching coach; maybe it's time to let him experiment with his mechanics and his repertoire at the major-league level without fear of demotion; maybe it's time to start taking steps to realize the investment that the Orioles have put in him. He could have a breakout season, or he could show that he still can't handle the big leagues, but it's worth a try and it makes more sense than hoping that he'll fix himself in Triple-A.

Yesterday, I wrote a lengthy comment comparing Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis, noting that Davis could be a very useful player if he made several small improvements in areas such as walk rate, strikeout rate and power production. Based on the data, I guessed that Davis may be the kind of player who shows flashes of excellent talent but never actually puts everything together.

I think most people would agree that that's a reasonable guess. But it seems like that kind of prediction lacks any value without some kind of statistical backing. What if we could take Chris Davis's skill set, find a list of comparable players - call them the Chris Davis Family of Hitters - and see how those hitters' careers played out? How many of those players improved their strikeout rates? How did they perform in their age-26 seasons? Every player is different, but we might be able to learn more about Chris Davis by looking at similar players.

This isn't a new idea, not in the least. Tom Tango used this method extensively in The Book. Bill James wrote an essay titled "The 96 Families of Hitters" in his 2009 Gold Mine (page 23). Dave Cameron recently used a similar approach in assessing the value of Adam Jones's upside.

So, this is probably a good way to think about Chris Davis's future. But I don't have the time, resources and skills necessary for doing this kind of analysis. Why not open up the ideas to the people who can analyze the data properly?

I figured I would start this thread as a place for everyone to ask the baseball questions that they've never been able to answer definitively. Some questions will be able to be answered by linking to someone else's work; others will have to be answered by combing through the numbers.

Note: It's going to be pretty important to give credit if you borrow somebody's work. If you follow through on someone else's idea, link to the source, be it a blog post, CC comment, tweet, etc. Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference have a ton of data, and Stacey can help anyone who needs data from B-R's premium content.

Proposed trade:

Jeremy Guthrie and Mark Reynolds for Nick Bucci and Mike Fiers

Brewers side:

Nick Bucci

Background: Nick Bucci is a 21 year-old right-handed starting pitcher who pitched 150 innings of 3.84 ERA ball at High-A this year. Despite moving from A ball to High-A in 2011, he managed to lower his walk and homerun rates while keeping his strikeout rate pretty much constant. John Sickels graded Bucci as a C+.

Reasons for obtaining him: Though he projects as a #5 starter or middle reliever, Bucci has the potential to be a solid #3 starter. He is still fairly young, so there is no reason to rush him.

Reasons he is obtainable: Bucci was an 18th round pick in the 2008 draft, so he doesn’t come with a high pedigree. While he has posted good strikeout, walk and homerun rates, Bucci’s upside is limited because he doesn’t have any one dominant trait. He also hasn’t pitched in the past High-A yet.

Notes: From a statistical standpoint, Bucci reminds me of Bobby Bundy: both players just posted sub-4 FIPs at High-A in their age-21 seasons; both are 6’2" right-handers; and both were drafted after the 5th round in 2008. I have no idea how the players compare on a scouting/stuff basis, and Bundy is more highly-regarded, but I like the idea of developing Bundy and Bucci on the same timetable.

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Rotation:

Britton

Arrieta

J. Johnson

Hunter

Matusz

Lineup

C Wieters

1B Reynolds

2B Andino

3B C. Davis

SS Hardy

LF Reimold

CF Cespedes

RF Markakis

DH Scott

Bullpen

Rapada LS

Patton LS/MR

O’Day CL

Berken MR

Strop SU

Bergesen MR

Cabral MR

Simon MR/starter

Bench

Antonelli

Adams

Angle

Traig Catum

Notes

- Unless otherwise stated, I used Fangraphs’ version of WAR.

- I used $5M/WAR as the free agent rate.

- At the end of each section of the roster (i.e. rotation, bullpen, position players), I added the contribution of "replacement players." These are not necessarily "replacement-level players"; rather, they are the players who are called up to replace injured or ineffective players

Moves:

- Traded Adam Jones for 1 Top 26-50 hitter.

- Used Sky Kalkman’s Trade Value Calculator.

- Played it conservative with Jones’ value. I estimated that he has basically plateaued, so he puts up 3.0 WAR marks in his two remaining years of team control.

- MLBTR estimates Jones’ 2012 salary at $5.8M. Kalkman says that "We estimate arbitration players will earn 40% of free agent value in their first arb year, 60% in their second, and 80% in their third..." Taking the MLBTR estimate to be 60% of Jones’ free agent worth, I estimated his 2013 salary to be $7.73M. I rounded that up to $8M to account for error.

- According to the MLBTR reverse-engineering of the Elias Rankings, Jones is just barely a Type A free agent. I’m assuming that teams will value Jones’ as if he is a lock for Type A. Victor Wang’s research on the value of prospects suggests that draft picks from a Type A free agent are worth $5M.

- According to the Trade Value Calculator, Jones has a net value of $22.0M. Wang’s research says that a Top 26-60 hitter is worth $23.4M. Maybe I’m overvaluing Jones by $1.5M here, but I think that a lot of teams would spring for this deal.

- Any other combination of prospects totaling about $22M would probably work.

- Signed Yoennis Cespedes for 6 years, $60M.

- $10/yr, 2012 – 2017

- I think of this signing and the Jones trade as one deal. Since Jones will provide about $22M, the Cespedes signing is more like a 6 year, $38M signing.

- Signed Jim Johnson to a contract extension for 3 years, $14.25M with 2 team options.

- 2012: $3M, 2013: $4.5M, 2014: $6.75M, 2015: $9M (Option), 2016: $9.75M (Option)

- 2015 option vests at $9.5M and 2016 option increases to $10 with 400 IP in 2013-2014.

- Yearly IP escalators: $0.25M for 120 IP, $0.25M for 140 IP, $0.25M for 160 IP, $0.25M for 180 IP, $0.5M for 200 IP, $0.5M for 220 IP.

- This deal is based on Joakim Soria’s extension from 2008. They’re different pitchers – Soria had two consecutive excellent seasons under his belt; Johnson is closer to free agency – but Soria’s deal is a pretty good starting point.

- For Johnson’s 2012 salary, I gave him a $0.5M raise over MLBTR’s estimate of $2.5M.

- The increase from 2012 to 2013 is 150%, equal to Soria’s increase in his last two years under team control ($4M in 2011 to $6M in 2012.)

- Since final-year arbitration players are usually paid about 80% of their free agent value, the increase in salary from the final year of arbitration to free agency is 125%. 2014 is Johnson’s first free agent year, so another 150% increase seems like it should be enticing.

- The 2015 and 2016 options mirror Soria’s final two option years.

- The total possible value is $43.75M over 5 years. For that to happen, Johnson would have to pitch 220 innings each year for from age 29 to 33.

- This contract guarantees him $14.25M. Using the MLBTR salary for 2012 as a base, Johnson would be expected to earn about $10M over these years if he went to arbitration and free agency ($2.5M for 2nd time arbitration in 2012, $3.333M for 3rd time arbitration in 2013, and $4.167M for 1st year of free agency in 2014.)

- I think that this contract is appealing enough that Johnson would take it, but it’s small enough that it won’t become a huge burden on the budget. While it allows Johnson to make more money if he is effective as a starter, it also helps the team save money if he’s used in that capacity. If he shows that he is more suited to the closer role, then he makes near the market rate for a 1 win reliever.

- Signed Matt Wieters to a contract extension for 6 years, $41M with two team options.

- 2012: $1M, 2013: $4M, 2014: $6M, 2015: $8M, 2016: $10M, 2017: $12M, 2018: $16M (Option), 2019: $20M (Option)

- I used the extensions given to Brian McCann and Ryan Braun as the basis for this contract. Those extensions were both signed earlier, but Wieters hasn’t shown the same offensive production as McCann and Braun.

- Wieters’ estimated earnings via arbitration and free agency over the life of the extension: $33.75M.

- Used Giovanni Soto as a comp.

- I think that this contract is fair to Wieters, but he might turn this down and go year-to-year because his agent usually prefers that route.

- Traded Jeremy Guthrie and $4M for 1 Grade B hitter.

- MLBTR projects Guthrie as an unranked free agent in 2013.

- Estimated Guthrie to be an average starter, 2.0 WAR.

- I went with MLBTR’s salary estimate again, $8.3M.

- 2 WAR is worth about $10.4M, so Guthrie’s excess value is $2.1M. I’m throwing in an additional $4M to get a Grade B hitter (worth $5.5M according to Wang).

- Traded Kevin Gregg and $5.8M for 1 Grade C picher 23 years or older.

- Gregg makes $5.8M. I’ve covered his salary in return for a middling prospect.

- I’m predicting a tiny bounce back. Gregg was pretty awful last year, with -0.1 WAR over 59.2 IP, but he was worth 0.8 WAR as recently as 2010. A 0.3 WAR Kevin Gregg with $5.8M cash is worth about $1.9M net value. My trade partner is probably someone in the National League (easier league) who wants "veteran leadership in the clubhouse" and "more than 20 saves each year for the past five years." Victor Wang says that a Grade C pitcher 23 years or older is worth $1.5M, so I’m probably trading Gregg for a reliever in the Pedro Strop/Wynn Pelzer mold.

- Maybe this trade doesn’t go down; maybe nobody is interested in Kevin Gregg for free. In that case, I would probably release him and hope that some other team picks him up at the league minimum. He’s really just a waste of a roster spot since he can’t contribute anything to the team after 2012

- DFA Jo-Jo Reyes

- <insert Beatles joke>

- DFA Zach Phillips

- Phillips has potential, but he’s struggled with command in the high minors. He might pass through waivers, so I’m going to free up a roster spot here.

- Selected Cesar Cabral in the Rule V draft.

- Cabral hasn’t advanced past Double-A, but he has shown an excellent ability to miss bats. He struck out 70 batters in 55 innings (11.45 K/9) split between High-A and AA in 2011, and 80 over 79.1 innings (9.08K K/9) between A and High-A in 2010. He’s posted decent walk rates (2.38 BB/9 in 2010 & 3.44 in 2011) and homerun rates (0.11 HR/9 in 2010 & 0.49 in 2011) in the minors, so he should be able to hold his own in the majors. Even if he struggles in the bigs, Cabral will only be in his age-23 season and he can be optioned down to the minors at the end of the 2012 season.

- Signed to minor league contracts with invites to Spring Training:

- Juan Miranda

- 1B depth: Miranda walks a lot. He could become a decent bench bat.

- Kenshin Kawakami

- SP depth: Kawakami has been killed by homeruns, but he was good back-of-the-rotation starter for the Braves in 2009 and 2010. He might take a minor league deal if he doesn’t want to go back to NPB.

- Robinson Tejeda

- RP depth: Tejada gives up a lot of homers, but he can strike out batters. His 2009 was excellent, so I gave him a minor league deal see if we can catch lightning in a bottle.

- Lastings Milledge

- Platoon bat: Milledge could get a callup, but he’ll need to hit almost exclusively against lefties. His career splits (.348 wOBA vs. LHP, .304 vs. RHP) show that he could be useful as a platoon bench bat.

Pitchers

Rotation

In 2011, Orioles starters pitched 881 innings and picked up 5.7 WAR. I’m projecting the 2011 staff to get to 930 IP and 8 WAR. That WAR mark would have ranked 25th in baseball last year.

- Zach Britton: 3 WAR 180 IP $0.442M

- He put up 2.5 WAR and 154.1 IP in 28 starts last year. If you extrapolate that to 33 starts, you get 2.9 WAR and 181 IP. Should be able to reach the prediction as long as he stays healthy.

- Jake Arrieta: 1.5 WAR 150 IP $ 0.442M

- I used Guthrie’s 2011 as a comparison for Arrieta’s 2012. Arrieta’s xFIP in 2011 (4.52) was right near Guthrie’s FIP (4.51). Guthrie’s WAR prorated to 150 IP is 1.65. Arrieta should be able to hit the 1.5 WAR mark if he can recover from his surgery and doesn’t get destroyed by homers again.

- Jim Johnson: 2 WAR 180 IP $ 4M

- This move is necessary, but less crucial to the plan than others. We know that Johnson has a "starter’s repertoire," but it’s still hard to place his value as a starter. In 2011, there was a 0.17 difference in FIP between relievers and starters (3.83 for relievers, 4.00 for starters). That would put Johnson in the 3.39 to 3.59 range (2011 FIP + 0.17 to xFIP + 0.17), which runs from Tim Hudson to Yovani Gallardo. So Johnson has the potential to be a 3-4 win pitcher by these back-of-the-envelope calculations.
If we look at Johnson’s peripheral statistics, it becomes clearer that he has the ability to be a good starter. Tom Tango’s Rule of 17 suggests that when a pitcher transitions from relieving to starting, BABIP increases by 17 points, strikeout percentage decreases by 17%, HR per contacted PA increases by 17%, and walk rate stays the same. I calculated these changes based on Johnson’s 2011 stats and his career line.

Name	FIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	WAR
Actual 2011	3.21	5.74	2.08	0.49	0.267	1.22
Starter 2011	3.61	4.76	2.08	0.60	0.285	2.41

This method suggests that Johnson would have been worth nearly twice as much in 2011 if he had spent the entire year in the rotation and averaged less than 6 innings per start. Fangraphs puts Johnson’s 2011 at 1.6 WAR, so he probably would actually be closer to 3 WAR in the rotation. That makes me feel safe about projecting him for 2 wins, and it looks like he could easily beat that projection.

- Tommy Hunter: 1.5 WAR 200 IP $ 0.442M

- In his 11 starts last year, Hunter put up 0.6 WAR over 68 innings. If you prorate that to 33 starts, you get 1.8 WAR over 205 IP. Hunter’s walk rate might regress back to his career average, but any regression in his homerun rate would make up for that.

- Alfredo Simon: 1 WAR 100 IP $0.442M

- Simon pitched 94.1 innings for 0.9 WAR in 16 starts last year. His peripheral stats suggest that he’ll probably do the same thing in 2012. If he spends more time in the rotation, he could be more valuable.

- Brian Matusz: 0 WAR 50 IP $0.442M

- I’m expecting Matusz to spend time on the DL or in the minors. He could have a big rebound and do much better than replacement level, but I’m not counting on it.

- Replacement players -1 WAR 70 IP $0M

- In 2011, Rick VandenHurk, Mitch Atkins, Chris Jakubauskas and Jo-Jo Reyes combined for -0.9 WAR over 67 innings. The names will be difference, but the performance will be the same.

Bullpen

The 2011 O’s bullpen pitched 565.2 innings for 2.5 WAR. My projection has the 2012 pen accruing just 1.1 WAR over 500 IP. That WAR would have placed 28th in baseball last year.

- Clay Rapada: 0.4 WAR 50 IP $0.442M

- Rapada could be an excellent major league lefty specialist, but he should never be allowed to pitch against righties. His career line in 34.2 IP versus lefties is 3.14 FIP, 9.35 K/9, 3.89 BB/9, and 0.52 HR/9. Compare that to a career line of 9.39 FIP, 4.00 K/9, 8.50 BB/9, and 3.00 HR/9 in 18 IP versus righties. Sure, the sample sizes are small, but his splits are huge. If Rapada spends the entire year in the majors and pitches only to lefties, I see him picking up about 0.4 wins.

- Troy Patton: 0.5 WAR 60 IP $0.442M

- Patton won’t be able to sustain the homerun rate he put up in the majors last year, but he should be able to decent value over 60 innings.

- Darren O’Day 0.3 WAR 30 IP $1.3M

- I don’t expect O’Day to be healthy, so he could easily beat this projection.

- Used the MLBTR estimate of his arbitration salary.

- Jason Berken: 0.1 WAR 60 IP $0.442M

- If he’s healthy, he should be useful as a multiple-inning reliever.

- Pedro Strop: 0.5 WAR 70 IP $0.442M

- Strop showed a lot of potential in 2011. I’m just looking for him to have a full season in the major league pen.

- Brad Bergesen 0.3 WAR 60 IP $1.4M

- If Bergesen’s homerun rate comes back down, he should be able to provide some value.

- Used the MLBTR estimate of his arbitration salary.

- Cesar Cabral 0 WAR 50 IP $0.442M

- Just hoping to keep him stashed in the bullpen

- Replacement players -1 WAR 120 IP $0M

Position players

In 2011, Orioles position players produced 14.8 WAR over 6156 PA. I’m projecting my 2012 roster to get to 19 WAR and 6200 PA.

Starters

- Matt Wieters 4.5 WAR 550 PA $1M

- I’m expecting Wieters to take a small step forward offensively while maintaining his defensive performance from last year.

- Mark Reynolds 1 WAR 600 PA $7.83M

- Hopefully the position change and some time at DH will prevent Reynolds from being the worst defender in baseball.

- Robert Andino 2 WAR 600 PA $1.5M

- This may be a bit of a stretch, but Andino could be solidly average if he can maintain his 2011 walk rate and BABIP.

- Used the MLBTR estimate of his arbitration salary.

- Chris Davis 1 WAR 500 PA $0.442M

- The strikeouts are worrisome, but Davis’ minor league numbers suggest that he could be a very good hitter.

- J.J. Hardy 3 WAR 500 PA $7.42M

- I’m predicting that Hardy misses some time again, but that he’ll be excellent when he’s on the field.

- Nolan Reimold 3 WAR 600 PA $0.442M

- With consistent playing time and some regression in his BABIP, Reimold could easily be a 3-win player.

- Yoennis Cespedes 2 WAR 600 PA $10M

- Nobody really knows how well Cespedes will hit in the majors, but I’m guessing that he could be at least average over a full season.

- Nick Markakis 2 WAR 700 PA $12.35

- More of the same from Nick.

- Luke Scott 0.5 WAR 400 PA $7M

- I’m retaining Scott as a potential trade chip. If he hits well, someone will want him at the trade deadline; if not, he’s gone after 2012 anyway.

- Bumped his MLBTR arbitration estimate of $6M up to $7M.

Bench

- Ryan Adams 1 WAR 400 PA $0.442M

- Adams will spend time at 2nd and 3rd. If his bat plays in the majors, he could be the starting second baseman in 2013.

- Matt Angle 0 WAR 150 PA $0.442M

- Generic all-glove, no-bat 4th OF.

- Matt Antonelli 0 WAR 300 PA $0.442M

- Antonelli will get a fair amount of playing time since 2nd and 3rd are pretty wide open, but I’m not expecting much from him.

- Traig Catum 0 WAR 200 PA $0.442M

- Generic back-up catcher.

- Replacement players -1 WAR 100 PA $0M

Summary

My plan is intended to be medium risk, high-reward. The long-term deals in the plan are designed to retain the core players while allowing some room for payroll flexibility. My projections suggest that this team would win about 71 games. If things break right in 2012, they could blow away that projection. But even if that doesn’t happen, this roster is set up to have the potential to break out for several years.

Sources:
http://www.tangotiger.net/aging.html
Baseball-Reference pages for all players
Fangraphs pages for all players
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/3/777412/al-west-farm-system-values
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/15/950094/saber-friendly-blogging-101-trade
http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=bal
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/arbitration-eligibles-baltimore-orioles.html
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/offseason-outlook-baltimore-orioles.html
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/projected-arbitration-salaries.html
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/2010-11-reverse-engineered-elias-rankings.html
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/hitters-arbitration-salaries.html
http://baseballinstinct.com/2011/11/08/prospect-instinct-yoennis-cespedes-of-mlb-free-agent/
http://www.camdenchat.com/2011/11/29/2595638/jim-johnson-as-a-starter-yay-or-nay
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-starting-aaron-crow-a-good-idea/#more-69295 – thanks to birdman for the link and basis for analysis on Johnson
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/starter_v_relief_1953_2008/
http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2011/11/mil-free-agent-pitchers-of-interest.html
http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2011/11/assortment-of-rule-5-eligible-players.html
http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2011/12/cup-of-jos-december-2-2011-os-and.html

Who's in and who's out?

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