Dear Jim,

TODAY'S THE BIG DAY!!!

Here are my roster suggestions at the trade deadline:

Marlon Byrd - People out here in Fan World are convinced you turned down Mike Minor for Byrd.  In Real World, anyone who even kind of pays attention has read that the Braves would not give up Minor for a much better OF, Beltran, even with the Mets eating 3/4s or 2/3s of what's left (can't remember, I bumped my head on a tree like 10 minutes ago). What were you really offered? TELL US! REPORT, DAMMIT, REPORT!

Carlos Pena - With him, as well as all the veterans, it's expected that since the team is losing we must rebuild immediately and get rid of them to the most any bidder. Derrek Lee just got traded to the Pirates for Aaron Baker. Do you know who Aaron Baker is? Do I know who Aaron Baker is? Would I want him in a trade? That is not the point, sir. The point is to get SOMETHING. Aaron Baker can become a good prospect and then a good player. That's what prospects do. I hope you notice the sarcasm in that. Don't do that. That's the exact opposite of what you should do. That would make you the GM you're now portrayed as, except real and actually that bad. If anything, trade him in August or take the pick if he gets it. I think Texas might kick some tires. Derrek Holland FTW? FTMTFW? Now it's a rumor, it was on the table, and you turned it down. Ah Hendry....

Aramis Ramirez - Like with Pena, if someone throws out a good offer, then take it. By good offer, I don't mean the equivalent of Abreu and whoever the other guy was. I mean an MLB ready talent + a prospect + another possible prospect. This guy can be a good addition to a contender. The Angels, Braves, and Yankees still need bats amongst others...

This is taking too long...Guys who should absolutely be traded:

Wood - Supposedly he turned down a deal already. Some help...

Grabow

Baker/DeWitt - I'm iffy on this one since they're going to keep one of them.

Guys who should be traded for the right deal (otherwise known as worth at the very least one good, solid prospect. The trade must CLEARLY or be able to QUICKLY benefit the MLB roster, if the players prove capable of doing so):

Pena- Good pitching please!

Ramirez - Good pitching please! If 2012 is open, which CURSE you if you believe so, then he might be a good idea to keep around, as would all of those guys in their own way.

Marmol - Would be selling low.

Marshall - Should get back something good.

Shark - Not really any point in doing so but yeah it could happen.

Zambrano - Would be expensive to trade and then replace.

Dempster - Would cost alot to trade and then replace.

Soto - Would be selling low.

Castro - Who're you going to get at a trade deadline worth Castro anyway?

Garza - Would be selling low.

Wells - Would be selling low.

Russell - Would be selling low.

Soriano - I realize he's another guy who's really hearing it this year. Everyone knows that. He's still going to cost a crapload to move just to get anything of any kind of substance back, and this is a guy who just posted a 112OPS+/67 XBH/24 HR/40 2B/.818 OPS/~.240ISOslg just last year.

I believe there are guys on that list who absolutely shouldn't be traded (Soto, Garza, Castro), and then very solid arguments to keep the rest (except Pena) for 2012. I think this team is capable of a quick turnaround with the freed up fundage and a FA class that offers a few really strong talents.

OTOH, in the end moves do have to be made. So hopefully you do successfully land a good package for a couple of these guys. I admire that you, Jim the Tyrannical Destroyer of the Franchise Cubs, held your patience during this deadline. Now make it pay off with a strong finish. With Pence, Jimenez, Beltran, and plenty of other names off the market, teams just may get a little more antsy to get a deal done. Good luck to you on that.

Oh, and once again, DO NOT just give these guys away for pennies on the dollar because the team is bad. That is bad. It's reactionary. It does nothing for no one unless you work some kind of magic. Perhaps you can do so but lets face it Hendry, you're a fool. A POS fool.

Sincerely,

SenorGato

This year pretty much the only thing worth paying attention to with the Cubs is the farm system. The big league club has Castro and then a bunch of guy hoping to play a role during the next run, which hopefully (even probably) is sooner rather than later. On the other hand, even after the Great Purge of 2010, the farm system is having a pleasant season, particularly offensively where breakout seasons and strong performances are all over. The system will not inspire awe with amazing raw talent, but there are alot of skilled baseball players here with plenty of upside.  Baez, Vogelbach, and other 2011 picks won't make it if they're not signed, and the ones that are signed are probably not top 10 guys. Baez would probably be my #4 prospect, Vogelbach in the second half of the top 10, and if Maples/Dunston signed I'd probably have them in the top 10 too. Probably Jaquez too. I apologize to anyone who expected Bryan LaHair to be in here.  Anyway, without further ado, a mid-season top 10 then other stuff:

1 - Brett Jackson (AA/AAA) - (.256/.373/.443 45 BB/ 74 K/ 10 2B/ 3 3B/ 10 HR/ 15 SB/ 6 CS)

Jackson had a ridiculous April where he hit .317 and put up a .961 OPS in 82 ABs. He then tanked in May and June, during which he's dealt with a wrist problem. Wrists and hands are a tricky thing with hitters, and they've severely reduced the numbers of some pretty good major league hitters like Nomar. That said, Jackson has shown some power this season, can play CF and takes his walks. I do wonder think he's a little prone to strike out as he's K'd 74 times in 246 ABs this year (including 21 during his hot 82 ABs in April). Jackson has some good upside, and he's certainly a lock to see the big leagues barring catastrophe. I wonder if he's more of a young Mark Kotsay than a pre-injury Grady Sizemore, but neither is a bad player and that's really not a bad worry to have for a prospect. If his wrist heals well  then he might really have some bat upside, as he's got a strong, line drive inducing swing anchored by a strong frame.

Mid-season season grade - C+ Midseason prospect grade - B+

2 - Matt Szczur - (A/A+) - (.314/.368/.431 22 BB/ 28 K/ 17 SB/ 5 CS/ 15 2B/ 1 3B/ 5 HR)

A former college star, Szczur has taken to pro ball pretty well. He's been a little old for his level, but not significantly so especially given his performance. He's probably the best athlete in the system as it stands right now, and might be the best defensive OF amongst the significant prospects. He's an efficient player who BBs, makes contacts, and while statistically he doesn't look like a special basestealer he could be a very good one. I think a Carl Crawford comparison might be excessive, but I do think he can be in that mold of player. Probably won't hit with a ton of power, but like Jackson has enough skills that if it doesn't develop he can still be a good starting type player. There's still a ways to go for Szczur, and we'll get a better read of his upside in the second half and even moreso next year.

3 - DJ LeMahieu - (AA/AAA) - (.325/.380/.470/.850 12 BB/ 27 K/ 17 2B/ 2 3Bs/ 2 HR)

The Cubs got a breakout season from MIF prospect LeMahieu, who flew through the minors and made an appearance in the show just two years after being drafted from CWS winning LSU. LeMahieu doesn't have a set position yet, but he showed some chops at 2B during his big league call up and it's where his bat profiles best. Labeled the best pure hitter in the system by Baseball America last offseason, he has the ability to make consistent, line drive type contact with some gap power. The knock on LeMahieu is that he doesn't pack a punch, but the size/frame (6'4 180) as well as his hitting ability and doubles power suggests he might hit for a little more power in the future. Most likely, it's not alot of power and it's why he's not a more legitimate 3B prospect. He's the kind of player that surprises, because it seems that he doesn't get much hype as a prospect.

Mid-season season grade - A -      Midseason Prospect Grade - B+

4 -  Chris Carpenter - (AA/AAA) - (5.63 ERA/ 32 IP/ 30 H/ 21 BB/ 26 K/4 HR)

Nothing about this season looks good, but he somehow got the call to the Majors and didn't embarrass himself in a major way. Very good fastball/breaking ball combo that can be devastating out of the bullpen once he harnesses it. Right now he needs to throw more strikes, which means tightening up his mechanics and repeating everything better. In time he can be a Scott Williamson type set up man back when Williamson was nasty, but right now he's still somewhat raw, though I'll say it's not as bad as the stats look.

Mid-season season grade - C- (Not a D because he made it to the majors, not an F because that'd be ridiculous)

Midseason Prospect Grade - B

5- Jae Hoon Ha - (A+/AA) - (.273/.311/.424 16 BB/ 44 K/ 19 2B/ 3 3Bs/ 9 HRs)

The first guy born in the 90's on this list, the Cubs have pushed Ha this year. He was a significant IFA signing a couple of years ago from Korea, and has converted from C to OF, seeing alot of time in CF and RF this year. Ha is said to be very good defensively, and shares the contact oriented characteristic that we're seeing amongst the Cubs more touted offensive prospects and young players. He's on pace to hit over 30 doubles and should hit the teens in HRs, so there's a bat showing some potential here. I'm of the opinion that Ha could end up a Choo (Indians) esque player in time, but that's in time. Either way if you've followed Josh's Minor League Wraps this year you would notice he's found a way to contribute and contribute often, and that's a very likable quality in such a young player.

Mid-season season grade - B  Midseason prospect grade - B-

6 - Reggie Golden - (Boise) - (.284/.402/.407 16 BB/ 21 K/ 3 2B/ 2 3B/ 1 HR)

Another young OF, might have the most raw power of anyone currently in the system besides Burgess. He's actually a little similar to Burgess, but hopefully he doesn't struggle as much. Athletic, loaded with tools, and can take a walk. Check back in 3 years.

Mid-season season grade - B+ Midseason prospect grade - B-

7 - Ryan Flaherty - (AA/AAA) - (.305/.384/.523 40 BB/ 55 K/ 20 2B/ 2 3Bs/ 14 HR)

I've been knocking Flaherty a little lately, but there's no denying he's having a great season. He's played all over the field this year, pretty much everything but SS, CF, and C. Seems destined to be a utility player, but with his season this year there is a legit chance he can have some starter caliber seasons offensively in the big leagues. As a starter probably profiles best as a 3B, which is a good thing because 3B might be free next year. I've made the comparison to guys like Hinske and DeRosa, and I think it just might work for him. Just to keep everyone on their toes, he'd look good to other teams too if they have something the Cubs want.

Mid-season season grade - A Midseason prospect grade - B

8 - Trey McNutt - (AA) - (Look them up, they're not that good anyway)

Still probably the highest upside arm in the system, though I'd say Cashner has more upside in the upper tiers of the organization. Blisters and bs have ruined a promising season.

Mid-season season grade - D Midseason prospect grade - B-

9 - Hayden Simpson - (Doesn't matter) - (Doesn't matter)

The whole mono thing pretty much kills this year, but I'm still a fan of the athleticism and what I've read in the scouting reports. Hopefully he's learning something.

Mid-season season grade - D- Midseason prospect grade - C+ (The + is because he's still interesting)

10 - Pin-Chieh Chen - (Boise) - (They're good)

Another CF prospect, Chen is one of the many IFA prospects slowly starting to get looked at seriously. He gets the ten spot over others because he's yet another contact oriented, line drive nailing hitter. Could be anything when it's said and done, but IIRC he started off as a 2B so he also gets points for switching positions successfully.

Mid-season season grade - B Midseason prsopect grade - C

Worth mentioning:

Matt Cerda - One of my favorite players in the system for some reason, maybe it's his patience. He's a long ways off, but shows some offensive game and can handle 2B defensively. Lump him in with Watkins and LePage amongst the many Other Guys who are part of the MIF prospect depth.

Ben Wells/Austin Reed - 2010 overslot HS pitchers aren't lighting it up, but both have some of the best stuff in the system.

Penalver/Candelario - Both are 17 and showing uncanny plate discipline in the DSL.

Pedro Araujo - 17 year old pitcher throwing up good periphs in the DSL.

Willengton Cruz - Young lefty with a good arm.

Luis Liria - Another really young interesting arm.

Frank Del Valle - Also interesting, and even surprisingly polished maybe.

I'm just going to stop now. There's plenty of other names I could throw on here. This system is on the way up folks. I see us being able to land another stud in the next couple years, or maybe they even develop a stud amongst these many names.

So the Red Sox signed former top UNC pitcher, Andrew Miller this offseason.  Miller was the big (6'7" 225) left hander with the mid-90's fastball and wipeout slider who woulda/coulda/shoulda went first overall in the '06 draft, but didn't and fell to the Tigers. He's kicked around in the majors since with the Tigers and Marlins, and last offseason the Red Sox traded for him.

Since then people have been writings things like this:

http://www.nesn.com/2011/06/andrew-miller-beginning-to-dominate-in-pawtucket-remains-intriguing-option-for-red-sox-1.html

http://www.nesn.com/2011/02/andrew-miller-impresses-in-red-sox-debut-against-twins.html

http://www.masslive.com/sports/index.ssf/2011/03/boston_red_sox_left-hander_and.html

I saw Miller in his ST debut too, and he had a brand new windup. Before he was all arms and legs, but with the new delivery he really showed the athleticism you'd want out of a baseball player/pitcher. He simply looked like a better, more developed pitcher.

The Red Sox lost Matsuzaka so I'm probably both too late and too early, but I think they're looking to make Miller into a waaaaaaaay better version of Gorzerlany, another strikeout lefty who was traded for while their career was in limbo. I think this is a player to keep an eye on on the trade market.

2011 stats aren't so impressive and I'm too lazy to post them but they're in the first link up there anyway probably. That said, keep in mind that he's working on rebuilding his mechanics right now in the minors, so some bumps should have been expected. This is still someone who's career might be on the up. Unlike Gorz he's been healthy throughout his young career, and it's a matter of harnessing TOR type stuff.

Just figured I'd do something like this since there was a mention of the Cubs looking for bargains as well as an obvious top 1B this offseason. Miller or Wilson, one of these lefties would be nice.

With Jeff Baker slated to miss some time, the Cubs brought up hot hitting infield prospect DJ LeMhaieu. He was hitting .358/.386/.492 for the loaded Tennessee Smokies AA club. 

LeMahieu was a 2nd round pick in '09 from that loaded CWS winning LSU team. He was LSU's SS during the championship run, but that's not where his future lies. He's an above average athlete so he's not eliminated from 2B or even SS in spot duty, but the size (6'4 195) and projection have many hoping he grows enough power to become a 3B. Personally, I feel like he profiles best as a modern, offensive minded 2B, even when he sees that power boom. He's been rated the best pure hitter in the Cubs' system by Baseball America heading into the year, and his career batting average sits at .325 in 984 minor league plate appearances. 

The question of how much power is there and will come is an interesting one with him.  As I previously mentioned, he's got projection left on him and there might be more power a-coming. I would even go so far as to say I like his chances in that area, as he's so good at making hard, clean contact without a ton of K's. His power numbers don't look all that impressive this year so far, but he's already tied last year's HR total (2) and he was well on his way to smacking a career high in 2Bs. 

I'm honestly more confused about his plate discipline. He doesn't walk much with only 53 in 984 PAs in the minors, but he's only K'd 108 times in that span. He's posted BB% as high as 7.7% in the minors. This year his numbers look pretty similar to last year's numbers, but as I said he's posted higher BB numbers in the past. His numbers this year are 11 BBs and 22 K's...I can't think of a player with a similar skillset with these kind of numbers, so I won't bother. I'm curious as to what direction he goes in as far as BBs are concerned. 

I think this guy has the chance to be a really good player moving forward. I distinctly remember him from that LSU team because of his blend of baseball skill, size, athleticism, and hitting talent. He was considered their savviest on field player, and the batting swing was built for line drives even then. I think he's got the potential to be a top tier offensive 2B in time, and he's been one of my favorite sleepers in the minors for a while now. Here's hoping things go well in this little call up, and he has a long prosperous, winning career. 

This was somewhat discussed in another thread, but I feel like a player like Soto deserves his own thread.

I proposed Soto as a trade candidate for a few reasons:

- He's a big piece in the teams that disappointed last decade.

- At 28 and as a former All Star catcher, teams will be very interested.

- He's a partial DH right now and hasn't caught 110 games in a season in forever.

D'you think that the Cubs might be willing to part with Soto? What do you think they'd expect in return?

Now, you can't discuss the possibility of Soto as a trade chip without talking about Wellington Castillo. Castillo is seen as a similar prospect to what Soto was, in that he's got a good glove who's bat has shown flashes in the minors. I read a scouting report on Castillo a while back here:

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?84785-Scouting-Report-on-Welington-Castillo

It's from 2008, but besides that it's well detailed and a stronger analysis than you'd get in most places. His minor league stats aren't eyepopping, but there are many stretches where he would rake and show some real potential with the bat. The Cubs showed a ton of faith in Castillo by letting him come up last year for some ABs and also by choosing to trade Chirinos and opening the door for him to be the first catcher that would get called up this year in a pinch.

So, d'you think Castillo has the talent to push Soto? If he does, how would that change your stance on Soto as trade bait?

I specified the Red Sox as a match for a Soto trade btw in the past discussion. They have a black hole offensively at catcher, and Salty/Varitek isn't even all that good defensively. It 's just a dead position there. A healthy Soto can catch the majority of the games and add a RH bat into a lineup that only has Youk as a strong RH bat. Can't really think of another candidate...Mets and Dodgers are out...the Rangers could definitely fit.

I often find myself saying that people out there underrate the crap out of Brett Jackson. The CF prospect is a whole 4 days older than me, and already significantly more promising in what appears to be his chosen field. He's a career .302/..405/.495 hitter in the minors. He's currently hitting .295/.420/.518 in his second stint at AA, where he hit .276/.366/.465 last year in 268 PA.

Many experts out there peg Jackson as a 20/20 candidate, and he managed to steal 30 bases last year. He's got 13 SBs in 15 attempts this year, and could steal 30 again. The power is coming along too as he hit 12 HRs last year to go with 32 doubles and 14 triples (58 XBHs), and he's already got 14 XBHs this year. Couple that with a surprisingly good eye, Jackson holds a 128/214 BB/K in the minors, and we just might be looking at a 5 tool CF stud.

He also passed my personal eye test. The first time I saw him I saw a compact hitter who squares up at the plate and doesn't offer any moving parts. His swing covered more of the plate than I expected, and while he'll probably strike out in the big leagues it won't be extravagant. I definitely see the potential for a good average and consistently solid contact.  His lower body looked a little more filled out than I'd want to see in a true CF prospect, but by all accounts he should be able to handle the position early in his career.

So who would you trade him for? Is there anyone? What kind of player do you see this guy becoming? When the hell are we the people going to see him? Does he have the potential to become a 3 hole hitter? 

Ladies and gentlemen almost a decade ago the Chicago Cubs traded for a young 3B down on his luck/game. He wasn't fielding the ball well, and was never considered a great glove at third anyway. He wasn't hitting as well as he had done at a younger age, and many had ducked out on this young 3B. Upon arrival that young 3B turned his career around and became one of the better 3B in baseball for a 5 or so year stretch. 

There is now another 3B who needs to be freed from the restraints of a broken franchise. He is a little older than Aramis was when the Cubs traded for him, but at 28 isn't so old that 5-6 years old good baseball can't be ahead. I know I said differently about 28 year old Geovany Soto in another thread, but a catcher who hasn't played 110 games in a season since '08 is a different story. Wright's got plenty of baseball at 3B left, and just a couple of years ago was one of the best players in baseball.

Is he a worthy target to fill one of the big corner infield spots for a contending run? Is there hope for him to find his game again? 

The Cubs have a vacancy at 2B. Jeff Baker is a nice player for a team that sucks, and Barney's future is as a top bench player. Kelly Johnson is one of the best bats available in FA next year, and he happens to play 2B.

Johnson last year broke out with a .284/.370/.496 line in Arizona, a hitter friendly park. He's also put up lines like .287/.349/.446 ('08) and .276/.375/.457 ('07) for the Braves, so there's no questions about his bat. He's not a great defender at 2B, but he had a strong season last year and he might have been affected by the Braves trying to play him in LF at one point.

Personally, I root for DJ LeMahieu to find his power by 24-25 and take over the 2B spot. That said, Johnson offers a strong all around game immediately (well...for 2012+), and is behind the big 1B bats for best FA position player available. I've actually followed Johnson as one of my sleeper players since he was a Brave, and wouldn't really consider it a bad move for the right price. He's a secondary option though, and in that sense I'm sure there'll be plenty to complain about. For instance, if they make a former D'Brack of a current D'Back it better be Upton. 

After CC Sabathia and Chris Carpenter, the best pitcher in next year's FA class is CJ Wilson.  Wilson got be to known last postseason as the straight edge former reliever turned starter/student of Cliff Lee and Mike Maddux.  Some might be turned off by the 30+ tag on a pitcher, but Wilson has been building himself into a legit TOR pitcher the past couple of years. Last year he was the #2 on Texas' surprise WS team, and lived up to the billing with surprisingly good stuff, toughness, mechanics, and improving command. He's also ridiculously good at keeping the ball in the park, allowing only 10 HRs in 200+ innings last year despite throwing his home games in a place that used to define bandbox.

Here's a guy who I think is on the way up despite being the dreaded age of 30, and who can and will pitch in the top half of a championship caliber club. Is he a true ace in the Sabathia sense? Nope, but he's a "gamer" type who works extremely hard at his craft and has developed himself into a very good starter. He's got good stuff from the left side too with a fastball that hits 94-95, a swing and miss curveball, and a cutter he's learning to command and control better.

If the Cubs were to splurge next offseason, Wilson would be #2 on my wish list after one of the big first basemen. Maybe I'm missing someone, but that's only a maybe. It's 6-7 years too late for Beltran and it seems ominous to move Castro for Reyes (like Reyes for Matsui). Carpenter could happen if things went really well, but even then I think I'd prefer the younger more left handed pitcher. 

Say this story that sounded like bs last year became reality this offseason and Justin Upton hits the trade market. Upton, as I'm sure you all know, is the 23 year old younger brother of BJ (aka Melvin) Upton. He also is  a stud all around RF with a line drive bat and big power potential. He's got the potential, and really has been, one of the more exciting all around players in the game. Just a couple years ago he was as big as Jason Heyward.

The Cubs currently have a logjam in the OF, and Soriano is locked into LF for the foreseeable future. That said, Colvin, Jackson, and Byrd are tradeable in this or similar type trades (Byrd in lesser ones obviously). After that we have a ton of minor leaguers that could fill out a trade like this so long as the Cubs are willing to giving up probably one of Colvin, Jackson, Cashner, Castro (lol), or Vitters. After that throw in few from Jay Jackson, Carpenter, Flaherty, LeMahieu,  Ha, Raley, Cerda, Dolis, I'm there's a guy named Cabrera in the system...you get the point.

So really, the Cubs have the trade bait. Do you think a guy like Justin Upton would be worth it? He was a 4+ win player at 21, he's a good glove, he can steal bases, and he's only 23. He's got alot going for him. The negatives are K's, the batting average, and probably losing the SBs as he gets older. That said, there's plenty of people who'll tell you he can be a .300 hitter in the future with 30+ HR power and 20+ SBs. Is that guy worth "selling the farm" for? What kind of player is worth selling the farm for? How many of these prospects do you think can/will be contributors for the Cubs soon? Is there a legitimate possibility that all of them are positive contributors for the Cubs? What kind of player would get that kind of treatment if he were to hit the trade market?

And yes, I'd rather have Pujols too.

I haven't heard/read much and I coitainly haven't seen much of this spring. What's going on with Cashner? Is he getting a serious look as a starter this spring? Does it seem like he'll start in AAA?

I guess a word or two on any of the other young pitchers or new pitchers would be welcome...How's Casey Coleman looking this spring? Any general prospects who've managed to stand out? Brett Jackson? Jay Jackson? Hell, have young players like Colvin, Dewitt, and Castro looked good?

This guy is a very interesting prospect to me...when the Cubs got him he was a throw in in the Matt Garza trade that many had pegged as a future reliever...a  year and a half later with the Cubs and suddenly he's got the upside of Garza or any other really good #2/3 type starter.

I see him at the back half of many top 50 lists and I can't help but remain skeptical...mostly because his stock flew up so high (I actually really liked him when the Cubs picked him up...not because I saw a future 2 starter) so quickly given the hype he started off with...I realize this is a down year for the minor leagues overall so that helps push him up, but is this guy overrated now? If he was still a Cub, would he be a near consensus top 50 prospect?

Personally, I saw Rafael Soriano when the Cubs picked him up...and I still don't buy that he commands or controls his stuff well enough to be a starter...or that his change up will ever be a starting quality pitch.

Burgess is probably the real gem in the Gorzellany trade, and is easily the most likely to be a good major leaguer.

Some background on our new prospect:

- He was drafted in the 1st round 49th overall so supp. round) way back when in 2007.

- He was considered one of the top prospects in the draft, and a steal at 49 at the time. IIRC early in the draft process he was one of the top 2-3 HS players...some pre-draft profiles from high profile scouting groups:

Perfect Game scouting report: Body – stocky and strong, long arms. Offense – slightly open stance, aggressive swing, plus pull power, plus bat speed, good hands, overpowers ball, plus exit off bat, big swing, dangerous hitter. Defense – plus arm, easy exit, plus carry, RF tools.

Aflac All-American baseball profile: “lean, athletic and strong athlete who has blasted home run after home run on his way to elite prospect status. He has potential to be a starting pitcher beyond high school, but could likely blossom into a power-hitting right fielder with outstanding bat speed and an ability to drive the ball to all fields.”

Burgess is another product of the Hillsborough system that has produced the likes of Dwigth Gooden, Gary Sheffield, and Carl Everett. He has committed to Arizona State. Many experts project him as the first high school bat selected.

- In 2009 Baseball Beginnings did profile on him:

http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/07/30/michael-burgess-report#more-1965

They projected him as a solid everyday regular player and noted that his main problem was being consistent with his approach.

- Burgess will be playing his age 22 season for the Cubs in 2011.

- He made it to AA last year at 21, posting a .284/.391/.644 slash line in 87 PA. 13 of his 21 hits were for XBs, and 6 of those were HRs.

- He got 70 rookie ball plate appearances in 2010 and hit .246 according to Fangraphs.

- The reason he was probably available is because in '08 and '09 he hit .246 and .235 on the season.

- He showed good power and patience in those two years...BB's were around 10% and he had really strong ISO numbers...his career minor league ISO slugging is .207...Yep.

- 42% of his hits in the minor leagues have been for extra bases.

Anyone else seeing breakout candidate here?

What do you guys think are legitimate projections for Cashner this year?

Some food for thought:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails.aspx?playerid=8782&position=P

Fans of other teams projected him to throw for less innings, less K's, slightly more BBs, and both think he'll give up the HR.

CAIRO projections:

http://www.rotochamp.com/players/Player.aspx?PlayerType=Pitcher&MLBAMID=488768

57 IP/48 K's/26 BB's/4.42 ERA/1.44 WHIP/3-3

I think if he wins the 5th spot right out fo ST, which would be awesome, he'll look something like this:

175 IP/170 H/120 K's/65 BB's/1.35 WHIP/20 HR/5.68 FIP

I'd really prefer to see it this way when i think about it, so F doing a "Cashner starts the year in the minors" projection.

Thoughts?

So who're you liking for the Cubs at 9?

Do we go with an athletic college outfieler like George Springer from UConn or Jackie Bradley Jr.? Maybe a college pitcher like Sonny Gray (Vanderbilt), Matt Purke (TCU), Gerritt Cole (UCLA), Matt Barnes (UConn), or Taylor Jungmann (Texas), or Daniel Hultzen (Virginia)? Maybe a HS pitcher like Daniel Norris or Henry Owens (both lefties)? Maybe an infield prospect like 3B Ricky Oropesa (USC)?

2011 draft is getting alot of great early talk of being a really deep class.

Since the Gorz trade I've been trying to figure out who the hell this Graham Hicks guy is. He was treated like a simple throw in, but given that he's a young, tall, LHP I had to do some investigating. Plus,  last time the Cubs picked up a high upside, no name arm from someone else he turned into one of the best pitching prospects in the system.

Here's some things I picked up:

- He's a 6'5 lefty who might not even weigh 200 pounds yet. I mostly see him listed at 170, which is maybe heavier than me and I'm 6' on a good day...a really good day.

- He was a 4th round pick out of HS, and was actually somewhat touted. He was going to go to the University of Central Florida, but chose pro ball instead.

- He had been 18 for about 4 months when he was drafted in '08. He's 21 on February 9th. Young and projectable so far...

- He throws a fastball that can touch 92, a curveball, a changeup, and a slider. The slider is supposedly his best pitch, and the changeup is said to be strong too.

- He's got the ability to get the K, but hasn't posted a dominant K rate in the minors over significant innings yet. So far he's got a 7.2 K/9 in the minors, and in last year's 71 IP in (I think) low A and A ball he posted an 8.3 K/9....7.8 in A ball.

- Control seems spotty overall, but given his profile it sounds like it's because he's so young and is all arms and legs right now. Career BB rate in the minors is 3.6 over 133 IP so far.

- Has been hittable...he's given up 163 hits in 133 minor league innings. Pretty crappy, and probably the most disheartening thing I've noticed about him.

- Seems he's one of those HS pitchers who was pretty good as a junior, but then started throwing 90 as a senior and caught the eye of pro scouts. That said, before the pro scouts he had drawn interest from UCF, a local D1 school.

- Learned his slider from former ML pitcher Russell Jacobs.

- Craig Cozart, who I assume is someone of significance from UCF wrote this about him at one point:

"A 6-foot-4 left-handed pitcher that has got an unbelievable amount of potential left in him, even though his stuff is ready right now. He could walk on campus and pitch in our rotation immediately. He's going to pitch comfortably, from 88-89 mph and we've seen him run it up to 90-91. He has developed a slider that is just unhittable right now. He pitched down in Lakeland at the Florida Diamond Club and punched out all six guys that he faced. He runs it in on righties and away on lefties, both are equally effective. He's got a change-up and a curveball and he's a true four-pitch guy, which is very rare to say that you are bringing in a four-pitch guy onto campus. He loves to play the game and it's really fun to watch Graham Hicks pitch because he has such enthusiasm with a care-free attitude even though he is a great competitor. He is a very, very polished left-handed pitcher at this point."

http://ucfathletics.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/112007aaa.html

- His Perfect Game scouting report:

SCOUTING REPORT: Hicks is long and lanky at 6-foot-5 and 170 pounds, and hasn’t come close to getting physically mature or strong yet. He consistently touched the upper-80s this spring with his fastball, and has a very good curveball and developing changeup. Hicks throws from a three-quarters release point and stays over his curveball well, giving it hard downward bite. He’s shown the ability to throw strikes with all his pitches and has an idea how to work hitters. A year ago, Hicks was topping out at 83-84 mph so the improvement over the course of the 2008 season gives scouts reason to think he’ll keep adding to his present stuff. He’s went 8-1 this year and threw a two-hitter with 12 strikeouts in a district semi-final win in the Florida state playoffs.—DAVID RAWNSLEY

Physically he sounds like Marshall without the "he can't start" thing. I hope this guy distinguishes himself, because it sounds like he can be pretty good. It's certainly nice to get another talented lefty in here...I think we're up to two now with Kirk...3 if you want to toss in Raley...man I wish they had been able to sign Bryan Harper last year.

Between the two, who do you see the higher upside in? I lean towards Cashner because I think he's the best athlete at the P position in the system.

That "stuff" is a fastball that sits between 94-97 mph and can touch 98, with some arm-side run, though it does straighten out at times. He's not a max-effort guy, and his velocity comes relatively easy with short arm action as he whips the ball to the plate. He pairs his heater with an 83-87 mph slider with very good break that causes scouts to describe it as a hard curve. He also possesses an 80-84 mph changeup that is still a work in progress, but he has made good strides with it over the past few months.

Cashner made nine starts between Double- and Triple-A this season before being switched to relief work for two appearances prior to his call-up to the big club. He bumped up his strikeout rate more than a batter per inning, posted almost a 4-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and allowed just one homer with a 2.05 ERA in 57 innings. In his pro career he has allowed just three homers in 177 1/3 innings. We're seeing the progression we want to see in a power arm; his numbers keep improving, and he's missing more bats as he adds more polish to his game.

At the end of last year, the consensus about Cashner from scouts seemed to be that although he lacked overall command at the time, he was projected to eventually find it -- and perhaps even develop plus command -- despite his tendency to overthrow at times. There was also the feeling that his changeup, while very much hit-and-miss, had the sink and slight fade to be effective. It just seemed to be "on" maybe once every three outings. Cashner just had to be more consistent in not slowing his arm while throwing it, in addition to not "choking" the pitch (a term for when a pitcher grips the ball more tightly than he should, thus making it easier to detect and also more likely to be in the dirt).

By all accounts, his changeup has been a lot more consistent this season, and he has been able to get more swings and misses with it. Plus, he has shown more confidence in throwing the changeup any time he wants rather than falling back on his primary two pitches. Cashner also moved to the third base side of the rubber this season, which has made his slider that much more effective coming from a different angle. This year he has been throwing all three pitches for strikes, carrying his velocity deeper into games, and has even started mixing in a two-seamer on occasion. Cashner's groundball rate has been above-average in his career, which is a sign that he can continue to keep balls in the park even when he makes mistakes.

Found that on the Friendly Confines.

Trying to find a scouting report on McNutt is really hard. Generally I hear low to mid-90's with the fastball, and he's hit 96-97. Plus curveball...Haven't heard much about his changeup.

The changeup is important because it's another reason why I'm high on Cashner. He's got the kind of motion conducive to throwing a good changeup, and lasting as a starter. If McNutt has this then he's serious.

I'm an East Coast Cubs supporter who's been pretty lazy. I like the way Coleman's arm works and tbh I like his pitching style too. His stuff is probably a tad underrated due to him not being a flame thrower. I like the movement his fastball gets, I like his ability to throw a changeup, I like his command...I think he can be a good innings eating #4.

Does he have any kind of significant future here?

I'm kind of a nub to the whole NBA thing, but how possible is Chris Paul for the Nets? I've been curious about his availability and I'm wondering why the Nets aren't int hat. Could a Harris/Williams/2011 first/second package be enticing to New Orleans?

Losing Williams would suck. I'm not a huge fan of Harris. I prefer Paul's elite passing skills.

This would probably look good to that Lebron guy they seem to want. Paul doesn't strike me as an egomaniac who'd clash with Lebron, and his vision and passing ability would open up the floor for James. Then there's a young big, a talented worker in Lee, and the potential big time talent of Derrick Favors.

Let me guess...Harris/Williams/first/second isn't nearly enough?

So who's got it? Strasburg? Drabek? Tillman? Someone else...I saw a random Braves lefty with a sick hook but I can't remember his name.

My personal favorite is Christian Freidrich's because of the 12/6 action and the power in the pitch. The power man...That guy's going to be a really good lefty. Strasburg comes next, but his is less consistent and often looks more like a slider. It's arguable that this pitch as either a curve or a slider is the best out pitch in the minors.

So who's got it? Feliz? Meija? Strasburg? Perez (LHP)? Bard? One of the many other guys. Henry Rodriguez....Kelly because of the sink...Chapman....Aumont....Drabek...

My vote would go to Bard in the long run, but Strasburg and Feliz for the next 5-8 years. Bard has the advantages of having the best combination of size, mechanics, and coaching in the long run. The Rangers are improving at coaching pitching, but the Rex Sox have been ahead of alot of teams in that department. Strasburg could be Wade Miller rather than Roger Clemens.

Since Bard probably won't start, I'll vote for Chapman because him being left handed makes it easy.

He's got starter's stuff with a 90-95 MPH fastball with movement, a legit outpitch with his curveball/slider, and he's got good arm action for a changeup. He gets groundball, has a pitchers build, and has an athletic windup to boot.

I think the Cubs are very high on him, and I'd argue he's our best prospect. He's got front of the rotation stuff type ability. Seems like one of those guys who can put it all together next year and fly up rankings. It's possible he gets called up, but I'm not sure what I think about it yet. If he's doing well, then sure.