
Sharpe as a Tack
Mar 18, 2009 May 30, 2011 39 907
I am a married guy in his late twenties living in Colorado Springs. I've been a Broncos fan since living in Illinois in the early 90s, when my mom forced me to watch Broncos games so she could get her fix of John Elway. Apparently, she had a crush on the guy. Go figure. Since then, I've loved watching my Broncos and in 2006 fulfilled a lifelong dream to live in Colorado, the home state of my home team. I have a Bachelor's degree in Communication Studies (just as useless as it sounds) and Philosophy (ditto). Now I have my Master's in Counseling and work at an elementary school on a military base. I played basketball in college, but not football, even though I was recruited to play tight end (being 6' 4" helps there). Because of this, Shannon Sharpe has always been my favorite Bronco (outside of Elway). I don't have a solid knowledge of Xs and Os, but I pick things up fast and look forward to getting my degree from MHR University soon. I think the best thing I bring to MHR is a balanced approach to all issues and a critical thinking mindset which always questions assumptions. I look forward to a great time here at MHR!
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From the Fan Posts: Mythbusters: D-Line or Bust!
In examining the “D-Line or Bust!” philosophy, the most critical assumption it contains is the belief that the game of football is won and lost in the trenches. The idea is that if you do not have a high-quality front line you are doomed. Specifically, the argument this year is that you build a defense from the line up. This has been worded in various ways, but the thrust of it is that picking a player like Patrick Peterson, even if he is a true once-in-a-generation player, will mean almost nothing if we cannot also consistently pressure the quarterback. This approach has several factors to recommend it. It has a sort of blue-collar mentality that meshes rather well with the game of football itself as well as the personality of many of its fans. It has some prima facie evidence to support it -- all of the final four teams in this year’s playoffs have at least a respectable front line. It also has the support of several incredibly bright and successful football minds. Despite all this, I do not believe that the statistics support it.
What I hope to do in the discussion following is present a wide-ranging picture, using several statistical measures, of what a good passing defense looks like. I will then attempt to separate out (as much as is possible) the effects of the secondary vs. the effects of the defensive line. It will be of special interest to see if the adage "Show me a good secondary, and I'll show you a good D-line" is true.
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The Case for Patrick Peterson at #2
All the hype right now surrounds Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley, the winner of the 2010 Lombardi Award and member of the National Champion Tigers.
I've heard numerous pundits, prophets, and peers project the Broncos to take Nick Fairley or perhaps Da'Quan Bowers with their #2 overall pick in the 2011 draft. The conventional logic is fairly straightforward: the Broncos generated a league-worst 23 sacks in 2010, which just showed how abysmal their pass rush was and how much it depended on 2009 sack king Elvis Dumervil (out all season with a torn pectoral muscle). Even if the Broncos have some needs in the secondary, it all comes down to the big guys in the trenches -- can your big man flatten my big man? If you have a quality pass rush, then you can get by with only decent corners and safeties since the opposing QB only has 2 seconds post-snap and is usually rushed into a bad throw. Guys like Patrick Peterson are great football players, but they will not help the Broncos get better and fast! We need to overhaul/upgrade our D-line with a premier pick like #2 overall, and then find value depth in the secondary later in the draft
Have I got it right?
What I found when I looked around the 'Net and talked to people whose football IQ I respect is that only the Bronco fans on MHR seemed to have this opinion. In this FanPost, I hope to 1) address where I believe the root of this belief lies, and 2) make a concerted case for Patrick Peterson, junior cornerback from LSU, as our #2 overall pick. And no: I am not, nor have I ever been, an LSU fan. Heck, I'm an Illini fan -- I usually hate (but grudgingly respect) the SEC. Before 2009, I beat the Knowshon Moreno drum (lost some of you there). Before 2010, I beat the Tim Tebow drum (lost a lot more there). Now, I'm beating the Patrick Peterson drum. If you're still reading, I'll see you after the jump.
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Concession and post-draft checkup (NO TEBOW!)
I give up.
I tried to finish all the positions in my Draft Watch series before the real thing, and I will try like heck next year to do so. Maybe when I don't have a full-time internship (unpaid, ugh), part-time job (low-paid, ugh), and full-time school (very expensive, ugh) I will be able to. As it stands right now, I finished both lines and I feel OK about that.
The only thing I can think of to do now is to check back in with guys who I will consider "favorites" -- 4 to 5-star best-fit prospects. In this post, I will look at the offensive line. I'll follow up with the defensive line shortly(ish). The ordering of the prospects will be from left to right on the line at the positions I thought they would be the best fit on the Broncos.
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2010 NFL Draft Watch: Offensive Tackles
(Note: This is the continuation of a series of articles looking in-depth at each position category in the 2010 NFL Draft. All players will be evaluated based on their fit in the Broncos' scheme and quality of player preference)
As I stated at the end of the last post, this will be the final in-depth analysis. From here on out, I will provide a quick summary and a rating for each prospect at the remaining positions. I hope that the level of analysis I have put into these so far will forestall any suggestion that I am merely spouting my own prejudices instead of presenting a carefully compiled summary of paid drivel expert opinion. I just need to ensure that I can get it all done before April 22nd.
This tackle class is fascinating, mostly because it is so incredibly top-heavy. Numerous elite players are available in the first round, and I want to make a case here for a somewhat controversial proposition: if we are stuck at #11 (i.e., no trading down), and the usual suspects are off the board (i.e., Haden, McClain, etc.), we should take a very long, very serious look at taking an elite tackle (especially one with guard potential). The reasons for this are simple: 1) With the top-heavy depth, it is likely that other shallower positions will be reached for, leaving extremely good options on the board at tackle, 2) While we have very good starters in Clady/Harris, we have abysmal depth behind them and an injury risk in at least one case, 3) With the FA focus on D-line, there is less of a pressing need there, 4) The ones likely to be left on the board outside of the above are character/effort risks (i.e., Dunlap, Bryant, Pierre-Paul, etc.), and 5) the "reaches" (i.e., Iupati, Pouncey) have more questions about their ability to start right away. The more I think about it, the more sense it makes. Let me know what your thoughts are in the poll (all the way down at the bottom).
But enough of that. Here are our options:
| NAME | RATING | BEST FIT |
| Selvish Capers | 4 stars | LG |
| Anthony Davis | 1.5 stars | LG |
| Russell Okung | 5 stars | LT |
| Rodger Saffold | 3 stars | LT |
| Jason Fox | 2.5 stars | LT |
| Ed Wang | 2 stars | LT |
| Charles Brown | 1.5 stars | LT |
| Bruce Campbell | 1 star | LT |
| Kyle Calloway | 4.5 stars | RG |
| Vladimir Ducasse | 4 stars | RG |
| John Jerry | 4 stars | RG |
| Ciron Black | 2.5 stars | RG |
| Bryan Bulaga | 5 stars | RT |
| Trent Williams | 4.5 stars | RT |
| Jared Veldheer | 4.5 stars | RT |
| Sam Young | 3.5 stars | RT |
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Eagles trade Sheldon Brown to Browns
Now it seems that the Browns are not in a desperate spot at CB. Considering that they are the most often-cited destination for Haden before us, might we be able to take him now at #11? I for one hope so.
2010 NFL Draft Watch: Guards
(Note: This is the continuation of a series of articles looking in-depth at each position category in the 2010 NFL Draft. All players will be evaluated based on their fit in the Broncos' scheme and quality of player preference)
From a general consensus #1 need to a general consensus #1a need. There is a lot of discussion swirling around certain players, and there seems to be the same sense at this position as there is for Centers: pick early, pick the best. A brief word about that -- I disagree rather strongly with that approach to drafting, at any position (with the possible exception of QB). My preferred approach is, I think, rather similar to Josh McDaniels' and Brian Xanders'. That is, draft good football players while looking at value/need only out of the corner of one's eye. Know who you want, know what kind of player you want, and don't be afraid to go get them.
That is, essentially, the MO of these posts. I hope to help everyone realize that the reasons why a particular prospect is ranked 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc. round are multi-faceted and are frequently quite secondary to actual physical talent. SWG77 did a great post a while back where he invited us all to take a look at our 2009 mock drafts, and it only served to reinforce to me that fan and "expert" opinion plays an infinitesimally small role in the actual economics of draft day once the team's pick comes around. In essence, I want to get to a point myself (and help others get there too) where come Draft Day, if I am targeting a player it is because they are an asset to our team's scheme, player profile, and vision -- not because of the position they played in college.
Again, and as always, I am using CBS Sportsline's NFL Draft Scout position designations and an average of culled projected round rankings across the Internet. I am stretching this lens to include the 6th round.
| NAME | RATING | BEST FIT |
| John Asamoah | 5 stars | C |
| Zane Beadles | 4 stars | C |
| Shawn Lauvao | 4.5 stars | LG |
| Mitch Petrus | 3.5 stars | LG |
| Mike Iupati | 4 stars | RG |
| Mike Johnson | 4 stars | RG |
| Sergio Render | 2 stars | RG |
| Marshall Newhouse | 4 stars | RT |
| Brandon Carter | 2.5 stars | RT |
| Mike Tepper | 2.5 stars | RT |
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2010 NFL Draft Watch: Centers
(Note: This is the continuation of a series of articles looking in-depth at each position category in the 2010 NFL Draft. All players will be evaluated based on their fit in the Broncos' scheme and quality of player preference)
Now on to what is generally considered the Broncos' #1 area of need and priority upgrade: Center. In compiling this list, I was struck by just how horrendously thin the 2010 crop is at this position. After the top guy there is a massive drop-off in talent, and after the top 3 opinions vary from 4th round to better off selling cell phones. Due to that dearth of prospects and variety of "expert" opinion, I will expand the parameters to all 7 rounds of the draft. Again, I will be using the position designations on NFLdraftscout.com for a starting point.
In addition to positive personal qualities (i.e., hard worker, good football IQ, tough, leader, versatile), I will be operationally defining an "ideal" center for the Broncos' power running scheme with the following: big, low center of gravity, excellent at anchoring, good with his hands, solid footwork, mean streak preferred. Less important will be agility or pure athletic talent. Obviously, run-blocking will be a priority over pass-blocking (but this must also be solid), and they absolutely cannot be often pushed back or blown off the ball.
Like on the defensive line, Vortex7 has a great post on the Offensive Line that is excellent reading in a similar vein. Again, I am indebted to PredominantlyOrange for his use of the War Room information.
| PROSPECT NAME | RATING | BEST FIT |
| Maurkice Pouncey | 5 stars | OC |
| Erik Cook | 5 stars | OC |
| J. D. Walton | 4.5 stars | OC |
| Kenny Alfred | 3.5 stars | OC |
| Kevin Matthews | 3 stars | OC |
| Eric Olsen | 2.5 stars | OC |
| Ted Larsen | 3.5 stars | RG |
| Chris Hall | 3.5 stars | RG |
| John Estes | 3 stars | RG |
| Matt Tennant | 2.5 stars | LG |
| Jeff Byers | 2.5 stars | LG |
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The Offensive line, the running game and Kyle Orton
I want to step away from the NFL draft watch to address something which has grabbed my interest lately.
TJ Johnson recently did an excellent post detailing the successes and the failures of the Denver Broncos running game in 2009. He used a metric called Expected Points Value (described HERE) to look at the cumulative season-long effect of running in various directions off the line, pre- and post-Harris injury, and comparing Knowshon and Buckhalter.
In the (extraordinarily long) comments, I had several discussions with some very intelligent and respectful people regarding the effect of the passing game -- specifically Kyle Orton and his physical tools or lack thereof -- on the results TJ detailed. Without speaking for any one person, the overall sense I got was essentially that if we had a better passing game (perhaps a stronger-armed quarterback) that would cause defenses to spread the field and not "cheat" several players up, then our running game would be much more effective. In the words of one commenter:
Great stats and great analysis of each running plays, but it does not effectively get to the root of the problem. Which is Kyle Orton
and another:
what we need is a passing game that can open up the next level for our running game.
I think that this issue deserves a full treatment and discussion.
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2010 NFL Draft Watch: Defensive Ends
(Note: This is the continuation of a series of articles looking in-depth at each position category in the 2010 NFL Draft. All players will be evaluated based on their fit in the Broncos' scheme and quality of player preference)
The defensive end position is a unique animal. I am tempted to separate out the "true" defensive ends (i.e., those who will play on the line in a typical defensive formation) from the "tweeners" or "hybrids" (i.e., those who will play either linebacker or situational role-player). However, I have promised myself -- and you -- that I will Keep It Simple, Stupid. So, I'll just assume that the premises are well-understood, and dive right in.
It might be helpful to read Emmit Smith's excellent article on the responsibilities of OLBs/DEs in the Bronco's scheme. For another defensive line analysis, see Vortex7's post HERE. Finally, I am indebted to PredominantlyOrange for generously allowing me access to the Scout.com War Room information.
| PROSPECT NAME | RATING | BEST FIT |
| Alex Carrington | 5 stars | 5-tech LDG |
| CJ Wilson | 4.5 stars | 5-tech LDG |
| Austen Lane | 4.5 stars | 5-tech RDG |
| Corey Wooten | 3.5 stars | 5-tech RDG |
| Carlos Dunlap | 2.5 stars | 5-tech RDG |
| Derrick Morgan | 4.5 stars | LDE |
| Everson Griffen | 1.5 stars | LDE |
| George Selvie | 4.5 stars | RDE |
| Brandon Graham | 4 stars | RDE |
| Jermaine Cunningham | 3 stars | RDE |
| Brandon Lang | 3 stars | RDE |
| Jason Worilds | 2.5 stars | RDE |
| Jason Pierre-Paul | 2 stars | RDE |
| Willie Young | 2 stars | RDE |
| Rahim Alem | 2 stars | RDE |
| Greg Hardy | 1.5 stars | RDE |
| Lindsey Witten | 1.5 stars | RDE |
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2010 NFL Draft Watch: Defensive Tackles (part 2)
As I stated in PART ONE, a full analysis can get very lengthy so I have had to split this into two parts. This will focus on the guys in the 3rd - 5th rounds. Hopefully we can find a gem or two in there that fit the Broncos' plans. I promise, this will be the last time I infringe on your patience and split up the project. I will force myself next time to KISS -- Keep It Simple, Stupid. Also, be sure to check our Vortex's excellent post in a similar vein, for another set of eyes.
Now to address a couple points of confusion: First of all, I want to reiterate what my goal is here, which I initially described in the Introduction. I want to look at each of these players with a Bronco filter, evaluating them for their potential fit into McDaniels & Co.'s plans for the team. That means, for example, this will NOT be an evaluation of how Player X fits into a 3-4 defensive scheme, or an evaluation of how much skill/potential Player X has. It will rather be primarily a look at how Player X fits into the mold that Josh McDaniels and his staff have made it clear they are looking for. I will take the player's fit in a 3-4 defense or Amoeba offense into consideration, but I will not use that as my primary determinant. I am not interested in making a Big Board... yet.
Second, I want to clarify why I have classified the players into the position categories I have. I am considering each player at their listed position (according to NFLdraftscout.com), and will note in the write-up what position they would play for the Broncos. Strictly speaking, in a 3-4 defense the only DTs I would consider would be NT prospects, while several guys listed at DT would actually be DGs. This is to alleviate confusion -- if you want to find out what I think of Player X, rather than speculate on where I think he will fit in you can just look him up and then locate the corresponding write-up I've done on that position.
Finally, thanks for the positive comments. They are greatly appreciated, since it tells me that this is not just an exercise in futility for my own sake. Thank you also for the negative comments. I want to improve this by checking my opinion against others', and that is why I have made some changes already.
So, here is a cheat sheet, and happy reading!
| PROSPECT NAME | RATING | BEST FIT |
| Gerald McCoy | 5 stars | 3-tech LDG |
| Arthur Jones | 4.5 stars | 3-tech LDG |
| Mike Neal | 3.5 stars | 3-tech LDG |
| Boo Robinson | 3 stars | 3-tech RDG |
| Geno Atkins | 2.5 stars | 3-tech RDG |
| D'Anthony Smith | 2 stars | 3-tech RDG |
| Earl Mitchell | 2 stars | 3-tech RDG |
| Tyson Alualu | 5 stars | 5-tech LDG |
| Jared Odrick | 4.5 stars | 5-tech LDG |
| Corey Peters | 4.5 stars | 5-tech LDG |
| Lamarr Houston | 4 stars | 5-tech LDG |
| Ndamukong Suh | 5 stars | 5-tech RDG |
| Brian Price | 4 stars | 5-tech RDG |
| Vince Oghobaase | 3.5 stars | 5-tech RDG |
| Terrell Troup | 4.5 stars | NT |
| Dan Williams | 4 stars | NT |
| Cam Thomas | 3.5 stars | NT |
| Terrance Cody | 2.5 stars | NT |
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2010 NFL Draft Watch: Defensive tackles (part 1)
So, the community has spoken, and its wishes are as follows:
1. Defensive line
2. Offensive line
3. Linebacker
4. Quarterback
5. Receiver
6. Offensive backfield
7. Special teams
8. Defensive backfield
This is the order in which I will proceed with my analysis of 2010 Draft prospects. If you need a refresher on the rules of the game, the original post is HERE. In brief, I will be looking at guys at each position category with a Broncos filter, taking into account their fit into the Broncos' scheme and/or player profile. The end goal is to create a "short board" of Bronco-friendly players that may help make draft day a little easier for all of us, so comments and rec's are highly... well, recommended. And greatly appreciated.
I initially was going to only look at rounds 1-3, but then I realized that one of the major reasons why I wanted to do this for myself was to increase name recognition for the guys picked in the later rounds, before they actually became Broncos. Rounds 1-3 wasn't going to do anybody much good. So, I expanded the search to Rounds 1-5, outside of which it will become pretty much a crapshoot for us fans without inside knowledge and one-on-one contact with the players. The downside to this is that an already daunting project will get bigger. So, I'm going to split this into pieces as space dictates. I will begin with the defensive tackles and will move on to defensive ends when the conversation dies down.
I scoured mock drafts and "expert" (I feel like I need a shower all of a sudden) opinion and compiled a more or less consensus of opinion regarding when player X will be available. We all know the vagaries of Draft Day, so take that with a grain of salt, but it is as good of a starting point as we can get. After a few brief words, I will offer a final analysis on each player, giving them a "star" grade: 5 means they were born to wear Orange and Blue, 4 means they are an excellent fit, 3 means they are a good but not great fit, and anything below that I'll just list the players along with some quick thoughts as to why I think they don't fit McDaniels' somatotype.
This will be long enough as it is without me yammering on, so let's begin!
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2010 NFL Draft Players to Watch
I want to take a different approach. I love the NFL draft (like most people on this site), and I am excited for the Broncos' possibilities this year (like most people on this site). I also noticed two features of last year's draft that makes me want to do something different than a mock.
First of all, I noticed how many trades there were. I also noticed how many of those trades were performed by McDaniels/Xander & Co. This, to me, strongly indicates that attempting to predict which teams will pick at which spots is... well, enjoyable but pretty fruitless. Second, I noticed that apart from Alphonso Smith and Knowshon Moreno, I had no name recognition of the Broncos' picks. I relied on MHR analysis to fill me in on the details after the fact. This was effective, but left me feeling a bit ad hoc. Did I like this guy simply because he was a Bronco, or because of the excellent facts presented, or because I didn't want to think badly of the Bronco brass? This, coupled with a very large amount of risers/fallers, indicated to me that trying to figure out which players will go where is a) far too much information for me to handle, and b) outside the scope of my knowledge of the player pool.
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Denver Broncos 2010 Draft watch: Alabama vs. Florida
Hey everyone!
I'm loving the Broncos' resurgence on defense, loving the Broncos' return to the running game, loving the return of Eddie Royal, Peyton Hillis, Spencer Larsen, and several others. I am feeling good right now, as a Bronco fan.
But I'm also a guy who loves the NFL draft. I was a big supporter of Moreno before the 2009 draft, and was ecstatic that we picked him. I love watching rookies develop, and this year it has been a treat to watch Moreno, McBath, and Bruton, with Ayers improving every week. I continue to hope for more from Smith, Quinn, and McKinley. That being said, I noticed that with this past Saturday's SEC Championship there were more than a few notable players on the field who might be available for the Broncos to target come draft day 2010. Given the high caliber of on-field talent, I thought that this would be the closest to an NFL-like situation. I watched the game once live and twice recorded (once for offense and once for defense). The players will be ordered based on how much I would like to see them in a Bronco uniform, compared to the rest of the players on the field. For what it's worth, here are my thoughts:
(Note: Ted Bartlett has already covered this in his most recent Shallow Thoughts. If you want another, broader analysis, look there. I had already started this post, so I might as well finish it, eh?)
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Head over to Bolts from the Blue
I have begun a Broncos-Chargers pre-game discussion post HERE.
Head on over there if you think you have something meaningful to contribute. I want to clarify that only if you have something meaningful should you join in. I absolutely do not want the Bronco fanbase to get a bad name, and want MHR to be a part of that even less. If they try to bait you, ignore it. If you snipe back, I'll call you out. This is a rivalry game, and if we're going into their house (on the web, that is), we need to be civil. We'd expect the same from them.
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Ask a Bronco fan!
I'm not the most qualified person to answer questions, but I think I am fairly competent. And, since no one else has stepped up, I thought I would jump in and take initiative.
One note quickly: I hate bickering. Despise it, refuse to engage in it. If you bait me, I'll just ignore you. I ask any fellow Bronco fans who join in to do the same. I can occasionally get snarky, but it's always in good humor. If I cross a line, call me out and I'll do my best to be objective and apologize if necessary.
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Head-hunts, witch-hunts, and sacrificial goats
As always, this is just my opinion.
[Shockingly] I'll keep this one relatively short. We're all looking for someone to blame after the loss to the Ravens. Personally, I'm trying very hard (and so far succeeding) to stay relatively cool. Of course, I was doing the same thing during the 6-0 stretch. I'm just not a fan of a roller-coaster ride of emotion. Sure, I don't get to guzzle the heady mead of success; neither do I wallow in the muck of defeat. That's just me, I won't hope that you can be like me, but I like it.
What I saw was very very simple after the Baltimore game: we got beat in the trenches, and we were playing a top-flight QB. Everything else is incidental to these two facts. If Mitch Berger gets better and we continue to lose the line battle, then we still lose. If the refs call holding on the LT and the QB is still slippery as an eel and cool as a cucumber, then we still lose. That being said, here's my wish list for the Broncos:
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Tim Tebow and the Wildhorse
This one isn't even my opinion, it's just a random thought.
In light of the spate of recent posts about the potential of the Wildhorse formation, I just wanted to throw out a suggestion:
What about Tim Tebow in 2010?
The Broncos on Football Outsiders
As always, this is just my opinion.
Well, we've had 5 weeks now to simply enjoy the feeling of winning! It tastes so sweet, I simply love watching the Broncos win. And so far, it feels like our defense has simply been phenomenal over the course of a game and the best ever in the history of the NFL during the second half/4th quarter. Conversely, it seems that our offense has shown weekly improvement and most especially this past week, with the removal of "The Glove", the sky seems to be the limit for what we can do.
D--n it feels good to be a Bronco fan!
But, I like to stay grounded. Like a person who has had bad experiences dating/in marriage, I'm a little gun-shy. I always wait for the other shoe to drop, and like to hedge my bets so I don't get let down too hard. Besides, the memory of Kansas City Week 4 last year is still awfully raw. But over and above all this, I simply don't trust my eyes. I know some here do, and view statistics as being able to magically "prove anything". This statement is blatant hyperbole, but it is unclear exactly what it means. Personally, I know that with my affinity for Fantasy Football and my bias toward the Broncos (to say nothing of my emotional involvement with the offseason storylines) makes me a wickedly unreliable arbiter of fact and truth.
So, I look to others. And the best I have found so far has been the guys at Football Outsiders. They compile an ungodly amount of stats from every season, break down EVERY SINGLE PLAY from EVERY SINGLE TEAM, and then create a statistical web that uses proprietary formulae in order to better account for the complexities of the NFL game. The depth of their research truly is astounding, but it can be overwhelming for those who are not of a statistical bent.
For a brief rundown, check out their "Pregame Show", which is basically a type of 95 Theses that distills years of research into a few easily digestible patterns. It will also be useful to check out their explanation of their major formulae, including their flagship: Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA. One final note: it's vital to remember that these statistics are not "pure" -- i.e., they are not raw data like yards or number of plays. They are "tweaked" -- allowances have been made for the quality of the opponents, league average in a given situation, increased importance to red zone or third down, etc. This carries with it some disadvantages, the most pressing being suspicion of manipulation. Yet, given a neutral party that objection comes up pretty hollow. I find that their way of looking at 3rd down efficiency is far superior than the rest of the MSM (i.e., conversion percentage).
So, I've pimped them long enough. What do they have to say about the Broncos' strengths and weaknesses?
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John Clayton watch -- version 4.01
Team Preview -- September 9, 2009: Predicted division finish: 4th, Predicted record: 3-13.
Face it, the Broncos are a mess. They could be a three- or a four-win team if Kyle Orton struggles, the running game gets off to a slow start and Brandon Marshall continues to pout and be immature. To add to things, the defense that gave up 28 points a game is trying a completely new scheme. Ouch.
Wow. Maybe I should stop this series right now, after one installment (note: version 4.01 means Week 4 results, first post). Or maybe I should wait and see what he says after one loss, or two or three. We'll see. Right now, major props to my favorite punching bag, because he ponies up the credit where it is due. I still want to see him acknowledge the existence of his prior predictions, and work them into some form of the sentence "I was wrong about the 2009 Broncos". Until then, I'll stick around. But for now, way to go Mr. Clayton!
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My baseline vs. actual results, plus thoughts
That was an amazing win. Exciting, scary, and appropriate. The better team won. I loved it!
I made a semi-prediction last week for the stats we could expect from the Dallas game -- HERE
So, in the interests of full disclosure, how did I do?
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John Clayton watch
As always, this is just my opinion.
We here on MHR know that John Clayton is the epitome of a sports journalist masquerading as a serious journalist. Not that one can't be both, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to do so and many (especially those on or connected to ESPN) are bowing to the pressure of their peers. John Clayton is dubbed "The Professor" by his colleagues, but I find this rather sycophantic and woefully inaccurate. I have a better nickname in mind, but it borders on breaking MHR's code of conduct, so I will reserve it for my own giggling/sniggering pleasure.
In the interest of full disclosure and merit-based praise/censure, I am going to start a John Clayton watch now that we have equalled his preseason win prediction for the season (3-13). I've said on other Fanposts that I want accountability in the MSM, and less ill-informed opinion masquerading as expert analysis. I want to provide that accountability for Clayton, and I promise you: if he is honest and open about his mistakes, I will sincerely acknowledge that and stop keeping an eye on him. If not, I'll continue to be a mosquito in a tornado, but at least a mosquito who forms his opinions based on fact instead of fan-based prejudice.
This first installment will be a baseline, covering all his comments on the 2009 Broncos. I'll occasionally alert you to clues to his modus operandi (MO from here on out), which helps to understand how his prior conceptions shape how he views the facts. Also, I'll give you some heads-up to a few snide remarks he throws out from time to time that show both how he overextends himself in criticism of the Broncos (beyond the point of face-saving retraction), and how his descent into faux journalism is complete. So, let's begin!
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Looking ahead
As always, this is just my opinion.
Well, here we are at 3-0. Right now, it feels good. We still haven't gotten respect from John Clayton, et. al., due to our cupcake schedule so far (although Cincinnati's success is conveniently overlooked). Also, despite the fact that we cause our cupcake opponents to perform significantly worse against us than against their other opponents. John Clayton's favorite mantra has been that coming up, the Broncos have an 8-game run against "some of the best teams in football" He likes to call it a "gauntlet", in which he rhetorically asks "Where will the Broncos get their wins during this stretch?" Well, Mr. Clayton, I take your challenge. I think that his assessment is based more on 2007-2008 results and/or 2009 projections, rather than actual results so far. In that stretch, I only see two very nasty games and a host of difficult ones. All of them seem winnable; none of them really seem easy, though. First a quick note: I will say that right this very second, if we were to play any of these teams tomorrow, and if those teams were to play to their potential and play as we have been, it is probable we could only hope for an even outcome in wins and losses. However, the three weeks of relative ease we've had to gel, plus our superior conditioning, plus some key injuries and regressions in the teams we will face, means that luck is on our side. And because this is the 2009 Broncos -- like the 2009 Rockies -- we will keep ourselves in a position to take advantage of that when it falls our way, and you can guarantee that we will in fact capitalize on the opportunities presented to us.
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What's our baseline for Dallas?
As always, this is just my opinion.
Much has been made of our defense by the Broncos faithful. Much has been ignored of our defense by John Clayton, et. al. We have, after all, played a cupcake schedule -- allegedly. Rather than attempt to extrapolate through my orange-and-blue-colored glasses, I will look at our opponents from Weeks 1-3 and compare their results against us to their other two games. This will give us a baseline sample (albeit a small one) that will control for the quality -- or lack thereof -- we have played so far
And then we can look forward to Dallas. On defense, at least, and assuming that current trends hold. There's a lot of stats, so bear with me here. If you want, you can just skip to the end and read the conclusions.
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What I'm going to do to make MHR a better place
If ever the phrase "Remove thou first the log from thine own eye..." applied to someone, it applies to me. So, in light of that, rather than focus on what I think everyone else should do, I'm just going to share some things I've been thinking about -slash- had revealed to me -slash- finally figured out -slash- learned to laugh at myself regarding reccently.
This is all about how I love the level of insight and discussion on MHR and how I want to improve it, starting with myself. So without further ado here it is.
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Orton's arm?
I am convinced that Kyle Orton has the arm to succeed in the NFL. Some of you agree with me, many of you don't. I can respect that. So, I thought I would show you some proof.
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Broncos vs. 49ers: Sharpe's thoughts
A mixed bag, but an optimistically mixed one.
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Preach it, Josh!
I became giddy like a schoolgirl when I saw on Horse Tracks 8/12 that McDaniels "ripped" into the media regarding the Ryan Harris situation. I have made my displeasure about the MSM known, and it was delightful to see our new head coach hand out a smackdown, as a guy who usually is on the receiving end of it. Granted, I think "ripped into" is a bit strong, but there is no doubt he was upset and wanted them to know it. But the more I thought about it, the more layers I found to the situation.
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Training camp notes: Friday 8/7
Well, I know I can't jump in here and shout "FIRST!", thus validating my existence as a person, but at least I can offer some of my own thoughts, impressions, and experiences following Friday's camp. Hopefully it is of interest to some of you, even though it will contain little of the Xs and Os (since that is still my weak point) and will be more of a subjective and general nature. Finally, since Knowshon has signed up in the interim, I will offer some brief thoughts on that.
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MSM Nonsense and the Inner Ring of MHR
It seems like every "Horse Tracks," there is some eminent football philosopher stating in great detail just how doomed the Broncos are in 2009. On one hand, I can understand their point of view. They are not fans of the team they are reporting on, so they are not likely to have our bias (which hopefully does not border on irrationality). Also, to state the opposite viewpoint (or, for that matter, even a nuanced cautiously optimistic one) would put them in the extreme minority of their colleagues. It takes a man a strong character and erudition to accomplish that feat. So, the deck is already stacked against them anyway-- not because they are of weak character or low intelligence (although there are some who cause me to question my charity on this point), but because by definition an exemplary person is not a statistically frequent occurence. Further, I wonder if we all appreciate just how taxing and demanding the job of reporting on the entire NFL (or, best-case-scenario, an entire division) can be. Sure, you can do your research, but ask HoosierTeacher or BroncoBear how long that takes them for just one team, and one they already have a passion for and a vested interest in championing. I've often heard friends of mine-- and I've joined them-- grumble that sportswriters have the best and easiest job in the world and they would do anything to get it. If you'll pardon the analogy, like wanting to be a male porn star, one should be careful what one wishes for. This will stand as my attempt now and in the future at a charitable interpretation of the pundits, talking heads, and MainStreamMedia (MSM to the MHR newbies) personalities.
And now, having laid that foundation, I want to put flesh to my criticism of them. I have followed many others on this site by referring to "the MSM" and "MSM nonsense," without fully explicating what that is. I want to rectify that omission now by exposing exactly what the MSM is preaching, and why it is faulty. I feel the necessity of this because I want to avoid MHR and its readership using the phrase "MSM" as a negative mantra, which we can invoke against the infidels those who speak negatively against the Broncos, without really having any substance behind it. As C. S. Lewis, a British theologian and philosopher described it, the "Inner Ring" is a powerful allure, full of "the delicious sense of secret intimacy" and "delightful intimacies and confidentialities." I hope to avoid the appearance of this veneer by opening the door to all those not in the MHR "Inner Ring".
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Fleshing out La-La-Land
An interesting time right now on MHR. Along with He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, it kinda seems like now we also have The-Place-In-Our-Hopes-and-Dreams-Which-Must-Not-Be-Named. But, self-appointed authorities (i.e., not duly appointed) wagging their collective fingers in my face have never been able to get me to do anything but jump off the deep end opposite them, so I'm forging right ahead.
We all talk about La-La-Land, we all (supposedly) want it, but what would that look like?
That's what I'm about to tell you. To those who think we have handed Seattle a top-10 pick next year, before you pop the blood thinners while reading this, keep in mind: this is 80% entertainment, and 20% what I genuinely believe. Think of it as Rush Limbaugh.
And if I get even one comment about He-Whom-I-Just-Named, I'll steal those blood thinners from you.
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