Hey everyone!

I'm loving the Broncos' resurgence on defense, loving the Broncos' return to the running game, loving the return of Eddie Royal, Peyton Hillis, Spencer Larsen, and several others.  I am feeling good right now, as a Bronco fan.

But I'm also a guy who loves the NFL draft.  I was a big supporter of Moreno before the 2009 draft, and was ecstatic that we picked him.  I love watching rookies develop, and this year it has been a treat to watch Moreno, McBath, and Bruton, with Ayers improving every week.  I continue to hope for more from Smith, Quinn, and McKinley.  That being said, I noticed that with this past Saturday's SEC Championship there were more than a few notable players on the field who might be available for the Broncos to target come draft day 2010.  Given the high caliber of on-field talent, I thought that this would be the closest to an NFL-like situation.  I watched the game once live and twice recorded (once for offense and once for defense).  The players will be ordered based on how much I would like to see them in a Bronco uniform, compared to the rest of the players on the field.  For what it's worth, here are my thoughts:

(Note: Ted Bartlett has already covered this in his most recent Shallow Thoughts.  If you want another, broader analysis, look there.  I had already started this post, so I might as well finish it, eh?)

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I have begun a Broncos-Chargers pre-game discussion post HERE.

Head on over there if you think you have something meaningful to contribute.  I want to clarify that only if you have something meaningful should you join in.  I absolutely do not want the Bronco fanbase to get a bad name, and want MHR to be a part of that even less.  If they try to bait you, ignore it.  If you snipe back, I'll call you out.  This is a rivalry game, and if we're going into their house (on the web, that is), we need to be civil.  We'd expect the same from them.

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I'm not the most qualified person to answer questions, but I think I am fairly competent.  And, since no one else has stepped up, I thought I would jump in and take initiative.

One note quickly: I hate bickering.  Despise it, refuse to engage in it.  If you bait me, I'll just ignore you.  I ask any fellow Bronco fans who join in to do the same.  I can occasionally get snarky, but it's always in good humor.  If I cross a line, call me out and I'll do my best to be objective and apologize if necessary.

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As always, this is just my opinion.

[Shockingly] I'll keep this one relatively short.  We're all looking for someone to blame after the loss to the Ravens.  Personally, I'm trying very hard (and so far succeeding) to stay relatively cool.  Of course, I was doing the same thing during the 6-0 stretch.  I'm just not a fan of a roller-coaster ride of emotion.  Sure, I don't get to guzzle the heady mead of success; neither do I wallow in the muck of defeat.  That's just me, I won't hope that you can be like me, but I like it.

What I saw was very very simple after the Baltimore game: we got beat in the trenches, and we were playing a top-flight QB.  Everything else is incidental to these two facts.  If Mitch Berger gets better and we continue to lose the line battle, then we still lose.  If the refs call holding on the LT and the QB is still slippery as an eel and cool as a cucumber, then we still lose.  That being said, here's my wish list for the Broncos:

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This one isn't even my opinion, it's just a random thought.

In light of the spate of recent posts about the potential of the Wildhorse formation, I just wanted to throw out a suggestion:

What about Tim Tebow in 2010?

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As always, this is just my opinion.

Well, we've had 5 weeks now to simply enjoy the feeling of winning!  It tastes so sweet, I simply love watching the Broncos win.  And so far, it feels like our defense has simply been phenomenal over the course of a game and the best ever in the history of the NFL during the second half/4th quarter.  Conversely, it seems that our offense has shown weekly improvement and most especially this past week, with the removal of "The Glove", the sky seems to be the limit for what we can do.

D--n it feels good to be a Bronco fan!

But, I like to stay grounded.  Like a person who has had bad experiences dating/in marriage, I'm a little gun-shy.  I always wait for the other shoe to drop, and like to hedge my bets so I don't get let down too hard.  Besides, the memory of Kansas City Week 4 last year is still awfully raw.  But over and above all this, I simply don't trust my eyes.  I know some here do, and view statistics as being able to magically "prove anything".  This statement is blatant hyperbole, but it is unclear exactly what it means.  Personally, I know that with my affinity for Fantasy Football and my bias toward the Broncos (to say nothing of my emotional involvement with the offseason storylines) makes me a wickedly unreliable arbiter of fact and truth.

So, I look to others.  And the best I have found so far has been the guys at Football Outsiders.  They compile an ungodly amount of stats from every season, break down EVERY SINGLE PLAY from EVERY SINGLE TEAM, and then create a statistical web that uses proprietary formulae in order to better account for the complexities of the NFL game.  The depth of their research truly is astounding, but it can be overwhelming for those who are not of a statistical bent.

For a brief rundown, check out their "Pregame Show", which is basically a type of 95 Theses that distills years of research into a few easily digestible patterns.  It will also be useful to check out their explanation of their major formulae, including their flagship: Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA.  One final note: it's vital to remember that these statistics are not "pure" -- i.e., they are not raw data like yards or number of plays.  They are "tweaked" -- allowances have been made for the quality of the opponents, league average in a given situation, increased importance to red zone or third down, etc.  This carries with it some disadvantages, the most pressing being suspicion of manipulation.  Yet, given a neutral party that objection comes up pretty hollow.  I find that their way of looking at 3rd down efficiency is far superior than the rest of the MSM (i.e., conversion percentage).

So, I've pimped them long enough.  What do they have to say about the Broncos' strengths and weaknesses?

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Team Preview -- September 9, 2009: Predicted division finish: 4th, Predicted record: 3-13.

Face it, the Broncos are a mess. They could be a three- or a four-win team if Kyle Orton struggles, the running game gets off to a slow start and Brandon Marshall continues to pout and be immature. To add to things, the defense that gave up 28 points a game is trying a completely new scheme. Ouch.

Wow.  Maybe I should stop this series right now, after one installment (note: version 4.01 means Week 4 results, first post).  Or maybe I should wait and see what he says after one loss, or two or three.  We'll see.  Right now, major props to my favorite punching bag, because he ponies up the credit where it is due.  I still want to see him acknowledge the existence of his prior predictions, and work them into some form of the sentence "I was wrong about the 2009 Broncos".  Until then, I'll stick around.  But for now, way to go Mr. Clayton!

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That was an amazing win.  Exciting, scary, and appropriate.  The better team won.  I loved it!

I made a semi-prediction last week for the stats we could expect from the Dallas game -- HERE



So, in the interests of full disclosure, how did I do?

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As always, this is just my opinion.

We here on MHR know that John Clayton is the epitome of a sports journalist masquerading as a serious journalist.  Not that one can't be both, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to do so and many (especially those on or connected to ESPN) are bowing to the pressure of their peers.  John Clayton is dubbed "The Professor" by his colleagues, but I find this rather sycophantic and woefully inaccurate.  I have a better nickname in mind, but it borders on breaking MHR's code of conduct, so I will reserve it for my own giggling/sniggering pleasure.

In the interest of full disclosure and merit-based praise/censure, I am going to start a John Clayton watch now that we have equalled his preseason win prediction for the season (3-13).  I've said on other Fanposts that I want accountability in the MSM, and less ill-informed opinion masquerading as expert analysis.  I want to provide that accountability for Clayton, and I promise you: if he is honest and open about his mistakes, I will sincerely acknowledge that and stop keeping an eye on him.  If not, I'll continue to be a mosquito in a tornado, but at least a mosquito who forms his opinions based on fact instead of fan-based prejudice.

This first installment will be a baseline, covering all his comments on the 2009 Broncos.  I'll occasionally alert you to clues to his modus operandi (MO from here on out), which helps to understand how his prior conceptions shape how he views the facts.  Also, I'll give you some heads-up to a few snide remarks he throws out from time to time that show both how he overextends himself in criticism of the Broncos (beyond the point of face-saving retraction), and how his descent into faux journalism is complete.  So, let's begin!

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As always, this is just my opinion.

Well, here we are at 3-0.  Right now, it feels good.  We still haven't gotten respect from John Clayton, et. al., due to our cupcake schedule so far (although Cincinnati's success is conveniently overlooked).  Also, despite the fact that we cause our cupcake opponents to perform significantly worse against us than against their other opponents.  John Clayton's favorite mantra has been that coming up, the Broncos have an 8-game run against "some of the best teams in football"  He likes to call it a "gauntlet", in which he rhetorically asks "Where will the Broncos get their wins during this stretch?"  Well, Mr. Clayton, I take your challenge.  I think that his assessment is based more on 2007-2008 results and/or 2009 projections, rather than actual results so far.  In that stretch, I only see two very nasty games and a host of difficult ones.  All of them seem winnable; none of them really seem easy, though.  First a quick note: I will say that right this very second, if we were to play any of these teams tomorrow, and if those teams were to play to their potential and play as we have been, it is probable we could only hope for an even outcome in wins and losses.  However, the three weeks of relative ease we've had to gel, plus our superior conditioning, plus some key injuries and regressions in the teams we will face, means that luck is on our side.  And because this is the 2009 Broncos -- like the 2009 Rockies -- we will keep ourselves in a position to take advantage of that when it falls our way, and you can guarantee that we will in fact capitalize on the opportunities presented to us.

So, let's take a look:

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