Ok, I'm not a Yankees fan, I'm a Twins fan. I also live in NY and am very fascinated with the Derek Jeter contract situation. I recently posted a post on Jeter's contract on my Twins blog. I figured I'd post it here and get Yankees fan perspective.

Today, I am going to step away from the Twins for a second to talk about Derek Jeter. Jeter is having a terrible year by his standards and will be a free agent in the off season. Jeter's contract status is fascinating to me. Even though I hate the Yankees, how they do business is still interesting. Living in Yankee land does it to me.

Jeter is in the final year of a 10 year/$189 million contract that he signed before the 2001 season. Fangraphs.com says he has been worth 45.7 WAR in the 10 seasons. Fangraphs has been keeping salary value stats since 2002. His 2001 season is slightly better than 2008 so I used that salary figure for 2001. Anyway, he has been worth approximately $167 million. Not too much less than he has made on his contract. Given the Yankees endless financial streams, overpaying $22 million for their captain has not been a big deal.

Jeter has had a tough 2010 campaign. His OPS of .703 is the lowest of his career. His 1.7 WAR (wins above replacement) is the lowest of his career. His defense has fallen after he made adjustments the last couple years. At 36, he is no longer a great player.

Of shortstops, his .703 OPS ranks 10 in the majors. He ranks 13th in WAR. Jeter had a great year in 2009. He was 3rd in OPS with an .871 and 1st in WAR with 7.4. Jeter was decent in 2007 and 2008. He was 4th in OPS with a .840 and 8th in WAR at 3.5 in 2007. He was 9th in OPS with a .771 and 7th in WAR with a 3.7 in 2008 before having a near MVP season in 2009.

So, what can the Yankees expect from Jeter in the future? A guy like Roberto Alomar had a similar fall-off and played only one more season past 35. Cal Ripken had only one decent offensive season after his year 35 season. Robin Yount started to decline at 34, never achieving much after that. Many middle infielders have to change positions and/or they fall off dramatically.

What about recent Yankees? They gave Jorge Posada a 4 year, $52.5 million after 2007, in his 36th year. The two prior seasons he had an .867 & .970 OPS and a 4.9 & 6.4 WAR. Bernie Williams got offered only $1.5 million after having a .795 & .688 OPS in his 35th and 36th year. By this point Bernie was such a liability on defense, that his offense couldn't sustain him. Bernie was done.

What can the Yankees expect from Jeter? It appears he made some defensive strides in 2008 and 2009. Reports of better positioning, could be responsible for a couple better defensive seasons. Age probably eroded that away in 2010. Does Jeter have another adjustment at his SS defense? Is there a position that he could play in the future? An OPS of .703 will not work for the Yankees at any other offensive position.

So Jeter, as a starter for the Yankees, is a shortstop only. He is 36 and not close to elite in 2010. The likelihood of him being elite again is not great. It is reasonable to expect an offensive improvement in 2011 but he will probably continue to slide defensively.

Assuming he is re-signed, what to pay him? Fangraphs has Jeter's value at $6.9 million at this point in 2010. A $33.2 million value in 2009 when his defense/offense were at the top. The two years prior he was valued at $14.3 & $16.5 million.

Jeter is 36, he's been declining 3 of the last 4 seasons coming out of a great 2006. 2009 was a culmination of great offense and smarter played defense. Can Jeter do it again? If I were the Yankees, I'd offer Jeter no more than a 2 year deal. I'd either offer 1 year $15 million or a 2 year $24 million deal. This would account for some recovery towards 2007-2008 like numbers. This amount would be more than any other team would offer Jeter. The captain, Jason Varitek was offered much less to stay in Boston. His career was in steep decline and the Red Sox responded with a contract in kind. No one offered more.

People say Jeter deserves money and years as a measure of respect. Does he deserve to get paid for who he used to be? The Yankees have given old icons large contracts when they have produced and also cut bait with old icons. Being paid many more dollars in 2011 & 2012 than he was worth in 2010 shows this respect. As a Twins fan, I think it would be funny if the Yankees offered Jeter a huge deal because he is Jeter. The Yankees can afford the mistake, but it doesn't mean they should make it.

I started the top 50 Astros prospects almost 3 weeks ago. i have only posted the first 20. I've been slacking. I moved to Texas from NY state in November and have been enjoying this much better winter weather. This post can be found at my own blog as well.

Anyway, 50-41 and 40-31 are also available.

The formula for how I came upon this top 50 is included below:

For hitters I used OPS as my control. This is the formula I used: OPS +.025 per level above GCL +/- .025 for every year above or below age 22 by August 2009 + .025 for CF/SS/C + .025 for base stealers. I also perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

For pitchers I used WHIP as my control. This is the formula I used: WHIP -.05 per level above GCL +/- .05 for every year above or below 22 by August 2009 -.2 for starters. I also favored those with high K/9 rates and gave a break to those with higher BABIP (batting average of balls in play), because they may have been unlucky. I perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

I am not completely happy with this list. I relied too much on the formula and it let me down a little. That is the method I used to learn the organization however, and I am following it through.


30. Jonathan Fixler Catcher 6/13/1986.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 19th round out of Indiana U. in 2007. He batted .203/.275/.429 between Lancaster and Corpus Christi. His at-bats have been limited, but he is a catcher with some power. He is also blocked by Jason Castro at the catcher position. If he could improve his OBP he could be a useful major leaguer. Doesn't probably make a regular top 50 but he has power at a premium position.

29. J.R. Towles Catcher 2/11/1984.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 20th round out of North Central JC in TX in 2004. He batted .276/.386/.455 for Round Rock in part time duty. He threw out 27% of would be stealers. He has fair offensive numbers and I'm surprised he isn't used at other positions to get his bat in the lineup. He could be in the mix as a backup catcher in 2010. I met him a couple of weeks ago and he seemed like a nice kid. His autograph is below.

28. Collin DeLome Outfield 12/18/1985.
He was drafted by the Astros out of Lamar, University in 2007. He batted .255/.323/.465 in AA Corpus Christi. He has good power and some speed but needs to improve his average and OBP. The power is there to be a major league corner already.

27. James Van Ostrand 1B/OF 8/7/1984.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 8th round out of Cal Poly in 2006. He batted .283/.364/.469 for AA Corpus Christi. He had a jump in power and improved his OBP and might have had the kind of breakout he'll need to be a good major league player. If he can improve on his 09 he'll be a solid major league bat.

26. Robert Bono Starter 12/12/1988.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 11th round in 2007 out of Waterford, Connecticut. He went 10-8 with a 3.20 ERA in 25 starts/143.1 innings for Lexington, giving up 158 hits while striking out 66 and walking just 19. He's young and already has great control. If he can keep his walk rate down while also improving his K and hit rate some, he would profile as a back of the rotation starter. As a Twins fan, his numbers remind me of Nick Blackburn.

25. Rapheal Pio Relief Pitcher 1/9/1988.
He was signed by the Astros out of Quisqueya, Dominican Republic in 2005. He went 1-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 43.1 innings for the Gulf Coast Astros, giving up 33 hits while striking out 41 and walking 10. It will be interesting to see if he can keep his hit rate down as he moves up. If he can, he could be a good middle reliever.

24. Jay Austin Centerfield 8/10/1990.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 2nd round out of North Atlanta HS in 2008. He batted .297/.320/.360 in Lexington, stealing 23 bases in 36 attempts. He's very young and very highly regarded by the organization. He has a lot of speed but is very raw. Lists that account more for upside than track record have him ranked much higher.

23. Polin Trinidad Lefty Starter 11/19/1984.
He was signed by the Astros out of El Selbo, Dominican Republic in 2002. He went 13-10 with a 3.76 ERA in 26 starts/170 innings for AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock, giving up 177 hits while striking out 112 and walking only 35. Good walk rate, could be a 5th starter/long reliever as soon as 2010.

22. Samuel Gervacio Reliever 1/10/1985.
He was signed by the Astros out of Sabana de la Mar, Dominican Republic in 2002. He went 2-2 with a 4.82 ERA in 52.1 innings for AAA Round Rock, giving up 43 hits while striking out 58 and walking 21. He made his MLB debut in 09 going 1-1 with a 2.14 ERA in 21 innings, striking out 25 and walking 8. Was an impressive debut. He needs to work on his control but, could be the future closer.

21. Jack Shuck Outfield 6/18/1987.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 6th round out of Ohio St. in 2008. He batted .315/.389/.403 in Lancaster, stealing 18 bases in 27 attempts. He has good speed (11 triples) and a good contact and walk rate. He doesn't have much power for a corner outfield spot but could be a future leadoff or #2 hitter.

I expect to get the next 10 out sooner than 15 days.

I imagine there will be comments, this group is a mix of older guys with fair numbers and others. The top 20 will mostly be littered with guys that are actually considered top 20 prospects by most rankings.

Another Installment of Astros prospects. Reprinted from my own blog. Have learned from Astros'  fans to discount the OPS numbers in High A. Clack, posting at The Crawfish Boxes suggested minorleaguesplits.com, which will be handy in the future. Thanks for the heads up man!

If you missed the 50-41, they can be found here or here.

The formula for how I came upon this top 50 is included below:

For hitters I used OPS as my control. This is the formula I used: OPS +.025 per level above GCL +/- .025 for every year above or below age 22 by August 2009 + .025 for CF/SS/C + .025 for base stealers. I also perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

For pitchers I used WHIP as my control. This is the formula I used: WHIP -.05 per level above GCL +/- .05 for every year above or below 22 by August 2009 -.2 for starters. I also favored those with high K/9 rates and gave a break to those with higher BABIP (batting average of balls in play), because they may have been unlucky. I perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

40. Ross Seaton Starter 9/18/1989.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 3rd round in 2008 out of Second Baptist (HS) Texas. He went 8-10 with a 3.29 ERA in 24 starts/136.2 innings for Class A Lexington, giving up 137 hits, while striking out 88 and walking 39. He's very young and has shown a 94 MPH fastball and good slider, but if he doesn't improve his hit rate or strikeout rate, he will have to walk less guys to have a shot in an MLB starting staff.
 
39. Brandon Barnes Outfielder 5/15/1986.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 6th round in 2005 out of Cypress College. He batted .273/.322/.471 over 2 A levels and AA. His .523 SLG in hitter friendly Lancaster, over 291 plate appearances, inflated his numbers some. If he can improve his walk rate, he could be a 4th OF or league average MLB corner outfielder.
 
 38. Emilio King Outfielder 8/17/1989.
He was signed by the Astros out of Samana, Dominican Republic in 2006. He batted .254/.399/.384 for the Gulf Coast Astros. He also stole 8 bases in 9 tries. Looks to be very raw, with some speed, gap power, and walks a little, but at 20 years old, he still has time to refine his skills.

37. John Frawley Reliever 11/29/1985.
He was signed by the Astros out of the University of North Florida in 2009. He went 2-0 with a .90 ERA in 20 innings for the Gulf Coast Astros, giving up 18 hits, while striking out 25 and walking 0. There is not a lot to go on so far, but his brief numbers in rookie ball are out of sight. It will be interesting to see how he does against tougher competition. Could be a real find for the organization or just a blip.

36. Enrique Hernandez SS-2B 8/24/1991.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 6th round in 2009 out of American Military Academy in Puerto Rico. He batted .295/.336/.396 for GCL Astros. He stole 8 bases in 10 tries. It was a good debut for a very young player with tools. Has a long way to go but also has a high ceiling.

35. Douglas Arguello Lefty Starter 12/21/1984.
He was signed by the Astros out of Minagua, Nicoragua in 2001. He went 3-4 with a 3.36 ERA in 75 innings for AA Corpus Christi, giving up 70 hits while striking out 55 and walking 26. He doesn't strike out enough and walks too many guys. He might be better suited as a reliever.

34. Chris Johnson Third Base 10/1/1984.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 6th round in 2006 out of Stetson University. He batted .281/.323/.461 for AAA Round Rock. He made his MLB debut in 2009. He has decent power, but needs to improve his discipline. He could be in the mix for the major league roster in 2010.

33. Michael Schurz Reliever 9/12/1986.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 44th round in 2009 out of the University of Iowa. He went 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in 29.2 innings between GCL Astros and Tri-City, giving up 19 hits while striking out 37 and walking 13. Has good hit and K numbers, could be a dominant reliever if he could walk less.

32. Matt Weston First Base 5/20/1984.
He was originally drafted by the Giants in 2006 and spent 2008 in an independent Canadian league. He batted .300/.374/.572 for Class A Lancaster. Showed some nice power in a power-happy league. How he does when he moves up to AA will determine if he has a chance to make the majors some day.

31. Brad Dydalewicz Lefty Starter 3/24/1990.

He was drafted by the Astros in the 8th round in 2008 out of Lake Travis HS in Austin, TX. He went 8-5 with a 3.93 ERA in 22 starts/110 innings for Class A Lexington, giving up 93 hits, striking out 78 and walking 51. He's left handed, throws 95 and not yet 20. Numbers aside, I'd have ranked him higher, but he needs to walk less guys. Having never heard of him until now, i'd say he has a chance to be a future ace, but he has a long road to get to that point.

That's it for now, stay tuned for the next 10.

Comments, Suggestions, rips?

This is a repost from my blog. I normally speak about the Minnesota Twins but I also plan on following the Astros.

I have decided to tackle the Astros prospect list. I have previously tackled the Twins top 50 prospects here. The Twins are my favorite team, but recently, I have move to Texas and am in the employ of Drayton McLane. Since I am being exposed to the Astros anyway, I figured I might as well learn their prospects. Prospect lists can be found on most any baseball blog this time of year, so I am not breaking new ground here. I have decided to rank the prospects with as little media influence as possible. Prospects are not going to be ranked based on hype but on what they have done since they have entered the Astros organization. Since I don't yet know many of these players, this was a good way to learn the system. I am also not familiar with most of the leagues these teams play, so there is a chance I could have missed some league adjusted finer points. Most of the numbers considered are from the 2009 season.


The formula for how I came upon this top 50 is included below:

For hitters I used OPS as my control. This is the formula I used: OPS +.025 per level above GCL +/- .025 for every year above or below age 22 by August 2009 + .025 for CF/SS/C + .025 for base stealers. I also perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

For pitchers I used WHIP as my control. This is the formula I used: WHIP -.05 per level above GCL +/- .05 for every year above or below 22 by August 2009 -.2 for starters. I also favored those with high K/9 rates and gave a break to those with higher BABIP (batting average of balls in play), because they may have been unlucky. I perused the total numbers to look for anomalies and at this point I favored the higher hyped prospects.

50. Brian Wabick Reliever 8/3/1987.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 34th round in 2007 out of Oakton Community College. He went 7-3 with a 3.96 ERA in 86.1 innings for Low A Lexington, giving up 87 hits while striking out 66 and walking 21. He had decent numbers and if he could improve his strikeout rate, he could be an effective reliever.

49. Frank Almonte Outfield 1/24/1989.
He was signed in 2006 out of Santiago, Dominican Republic. He batted .246/.314/.428 for Greenville in the Appalachian League. He's shown a little power but needs to improve his walk rate and strikeout rate to have a chance to move very far.

48. Kyle Greenwalt Starter 9/29/1988.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 20th round in 2007 out of Sellersville, PA. He went 8-13 with a 4.20 ERA in 25 starts/139.1 innings for Low A Lexington, giving up 154 hits while striking out 90 and walking 28. Perhaps has a chance at a backend starter.

47. Miguel Arrendell Infield/DH 3/26/1988.
He was signed by the Astros in 2006 out of San Pedro de Macoris, Dominican Republic. He batted .235/.394/.368 for Greenville. He walks a TON. He needs to hit more or for more power. It would help if he could stay playing in the infield.

46. Kyle Godfrey Reliever 2/6/1986.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 13th round in 2008 out of Hiwassee Junior College. He went 1-4 with a 2.81 ERA in 51.1 innings between A ball Tri-City and Lexington, giving up 47 hits while striking out 41 and walking 12. He doesn't give up too many hits or walk too many. He could be a serviceable middle reliever.

45. Marcos Cabral Shortstop/Infield 4/4/1984.
He was drafted by the Mets in the 31st round in 2002 out of Broward Community College. He batted .298/.358/.461 for high A Lancaster. He has decent power and a decent walk rate, but is going to be 26 and just finished a season in High A. He was not successful in small stints above A-ball for Toronto. This will be a big year for Marcos.

44. Patrick Urckfitz Lefty Reliever 7/21/1988.
He was signed by the Astros in 2008 out of Monroe Community College. He went 4-2 with a 2.81 ERA in 57.2 innings between Class A Lexington and Lancaster, giving up 53 hits while striking out 49 and walking 18. He will most likely top out as a LOOGY.

43. Thomas Manzella Shortstop 4/16/1983.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 3rd round in 2005 out of Tulane University. He batted .289/.339/.417 for AAA Round Rock. He made his major league debut in 2009 and should be in the mix for shortstop or as a bench infielder.

42. Kirk Clark Reliever 7/19/1988.
He was signed by the Astros in 2009 out of Creighton University. He went 2-0 with a 189 ERA in 19 innings in Tri-City, giving up 14 hits while striking out 24 and walking 3. Not a lot to go on just yet, but a good start to his pro career.

41. Erik Castro Infield 11/13/1987.
He was drafted by the Astros in the 10th round in 2009 out of San Diego St. He batted .266/.351/.453 for Tri-City. He has a good walk rate and some power. If he improves on both, he could be a decent MLB player in a few years.

That's it for now. The write-ups are pretty general, but this list is stats run anyway.

Comments, Questions, Criticsms all welcome

Hello Astros fans!

I find myself coming into the employ of Drayton McLane. I am a Twins fan that got here via Twinkie Town on the SBNation. As a fan of an American League team I have room in my heart for a National League squad. The fact that my employer owns the Astros and I'm about to become a Texas resident seals the deal. I also run a Twins blog @ http://www.ontheroadwithshawn.blogspot.com/. It's pretty terrible. I am thinking of doing a write up comparing and contrasting the Twins and Astros organizations. So why am I bothering you folks? I was hoping to be steered into directions of the best Astros content(besides The Crawfish Boxes). Any info that you could provide for a new Astros follower would be great!

Thank You,

Shawn in Binghamton

Well, the season is almost over and the Twins have a ton of players they must decide on for the 40 man.

Check out my blog for a post i did on the 40 man roster.

More questions than answers as alot of folks need to be protected or could be lost.

http://www.ontheroadwithshawn.blogspot.com/

Who would you like to see the Twins keep? Who should they let go?

Feedback encouraged!

Thanks, Shawn