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Shore

Apr 01, 2008 Apr 01, 2008 7 159

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Protection: What the numbers say

Here's some data to aid in the Protection debate. I compiled, from Retrosheet (bless their souls), every Phillies PA from 2006. What's shown below (available here as a PDF, and here as an HTML file) is every Phillies batter, their 2006 composite line, and their line broken down by "protector" for everyone who followed them in 2006. If there's interest, I'll post each person's "protection" stats - basically a re-sort of this data to show how every they PROTECTED hit. Without further ado....

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Greatest Book Ever: TheGoodPhight 9th Best Philly Sports Blog!

Is here.

How do I know it's the greatest book ever?  Two reasons:

  1.  I own it.  Very entertaining, and the kind of thing you can debate with your buddies for hours and hours.  I mean, a list of the top 100 athletes in Philly history?  I could argue that one for days.
  2. We're in it.  Page 254, top 10 Philly Sports Blogs, by Will Bunch.  TheGoodPhight pulls 9th place, which is fantastic!  Thanks to Will, and the authors (Glen MacNow & Big Daddy Graham), for "recognizing".  We'll go for top 5 in the next edition....
Seriously, it was VERY COOL to see us in there, and thanks to all of the readers who pointed it out.  And it IS a fun book.

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Overheard in a Northern California Home

Somewhere on the west coast...

Friday night, a "friendly" poker game between 3 old friends who work in the same business.  

The first 30 minutes is some mediocre poker, and general catch-up talk on family and common friends.  Then, someone breaks the work-talk ice with a joke: "How do you know a Phillie is available?" "How?"  "They trash him in the papers, then announce he'll be hard to trade because of his contract!" Laughter all around... "Hey, speaking of that, can you believe that they're willing to pay half of Burrell's deal just to dump him?"  Nods and sly smiles around the table.  Slowly, the grins fade, and the friends-slash-competitors start to eye each other; everyone's ignoring their cards.  Suddenly, the host stands up, excuses himself, and strides into the kitchen - grabbing his cell phone as he goes.  As he fades from earshot of the other men, he speaks, "Pat?  This is Brian Sabean...

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Hit or Myth: Too Many Runners Left On

Rollins singles...
Victorino moves him over...
Utley Doubles...
Howard gets walked...
Conine fouls out...
Burrell whiffs, inning over.

"We left runner on AGAIN!  We always do that!  THAT is what's wrong with this team!"

A refrain heard, in some format - voice, email, message board post - on an almost constant basis in the Delaware Valley.

But is it true?

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Baseball Reference

Has their 2006 stats posted, in record time this year.  

For geeks like me, this is like a holiday.

Ryan Howard is here.

Enjoy.

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Clutch: What the Numbers Say

By twist of fate, I had just completed loading all of the available play-by-play Retrosheet data into a shiny new database when I noticed yet another "Clutch" slash "Bobby Abreu" thread on PhilliesPhans.com. I decided to test out my new toy and see if there wasn't some pattern to be discovered in the late-inning performance of Abreu and the rest of his teammates.

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Shore's Bookshelf

I found myself at Borders this afternoon, with time to kill, a gift card in my pocket, and no kids... kind of a "geek dad" trifecta.

I wasted no time in making a beeline for the baseball books, though I've already got the Bill James Handbook 2006, and know the Prospectus isn't due for 8 weeks. But I was pleasantly surprised to find a single copy of the Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006 on the shelf. THT's website is a daily staple for me, as it should be for any reader/contributor here at TGP, so I bought the book after a 10-second in-store perusal.

Those looking for a one-line review: The book is fantastic. Essays, statistics, history, analysis - all top notch. The regular THT crew is there, along with guest contributors including Mr. James himself, Rob Neyer, and John Dewan, among others.

Some interesting Phils-related nuggets found in the book:

- The Phillies were an excellent defensive ballclub, certainly one of the top 5 in the league (analysis done using Fielding Runs by Batted Ball Type).
- They were an atrocious baserunning team, worst in the league (measured by Incremental Run Percentage, which accounts for base situations and batted ball type/location). It's noted that this may be 3B-coach-related.
- Neyer's article focuses on decisions and their impacts; a large portion of the article is devoted to the David Bell / Placido Polanco decision.

Also:
- The team-by-team statistics pages are awesome, with batting, pitching, fielding, and baserunning numbers, as well as Win Share data.
- The detailed statistics, with fielding range numbers and plate appearance outcomes for both batter and pitchers, are invaluable.

There's too much to mention here, from PrOPS, to Net Win Shares, to baserunning analysis... Suffice it to say, this is a must-buy if (like me) you've got a stackful of old Prospectus's and older Baseball Annuals sitting around. And if you don't, this is an excellent way to get your baseball bookshelf started.

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