The clinching scenarios for Week 15 will be (we only need 1):

1) Win or Tie

2) Jets Loss

3) Titans Loss or Tie

4) Broncos Loss or Tie

5) Raiders Loss or Tie

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Bumped from earlier on Sunday. Good breakdown here, though I must admit I haven't had the opportunity to confirm all of the myriad variables presented here. Even if one or two things might be off base, which I don't necessarily think is the case, what follows is still a valuable post to familiarize yourself with what the AFC Playoff Picture looks like with regards to the Pittsburgh Steelers. I'll be sharing my take on who will edge out the rest of the pack for a coveted playoff berth, and who will fall short, but this helps me get some of the scenarios in play out there for your perusal and consideration beforehand. Many thanks to the author for taking the time to research and write. - Michael B.-

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The scenarios will all require that the Steelers beat the Browns & the Bengals lose to the Texans. This will clinch 1st or 2nd in the division.

The other games that matter are Oakland-Green Bay; Tennessee-New Orleans; New York Jets-Kansas City.

With a Steelers win, we will be 10-3 (8-3 in the conference).

If the Jets lose, they will be 7-6 (5-6)

If the Titans lose, they will be 7-6 (5-4)

If the Raiders lose, they will be 7-6 (5-5)

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Now it's down to one week and three games that will determine the placement of seeds 2, 5, and 6 for the AFC playoffs.

Steelers win division & get a first round bye with the 2nd seed:

1. Steelers win or
2. Ravens loss or
3. Steelers tie + Ravens tie

Steelers get the 5th seed:

1. Steelers tie + Ravens win or
2. Steelers loss + Ravens win or tie + Jets loss or tie

Steelers get the 6th seed:

1. Steelers loss + Ravens win or tie + Jets win

Pittsburgh has clinched a playoff spot and probably still needs to win the last 2 games to clinch the division and get a first round bye.  The only difference between a win and a loss today is the need to beat Carolina.

The Ravens victory over the Saints gave them the advantage for the Strength of Victory tie-break.

Nothing can be clinched next week - win, lose, or tie - but a win against the Panthers will leave us in the driver's seat for the division crown. In Week 16 - A Steelers win & a Ravens loss to the Browns will clinch the division and a 1st Round Bye for the Steelers due to Division Record.

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The Steelers will clinch a playoff spot with:

1. Win or Tie
2. Colts Loss or Tie + Chargers Loss or Tie
   
3. Colts Loss or Tie + Chiefs Loss
4. Colts Loss or Tie + Raiders Win + any 2 wins by {Falcons, Ravens, Buccaneers, Panthers, Titans, Rams}                                                                                                                                           .(This scenario clinches Strength of Victory Tie-break over the Chargers)
5. Colts Loss or Tie + any 5 wins by {Falcons, Ravens, Buccaneers, Panthers, Titans, Rams}         .(This scenario clinches Strength of Victory Tie-break over the Chargers)
6. Chargers Loss or Tie + any 3 wins by {Falcons, Ravens, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Raiders, Bengals, Titans (Bengals & Titans wins count as 2 wins)}                                                                            .(This scenario clinches Strength of Victory Tie-break over the Jaguars)
7. Clinches SOV tie-break over the Jaguars & Chargers.

(Pittsburgh has clinched SoV over Jacksonville due to wins by the Bengals & Titans)

Updated (thanks to joepinion for pointing this out): 

The Steelers will clinch the division with:

1. Steelers win + Ravens Loss + any 1 win by {Falcons, Bengals, Raiders, Titans, Cardinals}

The Steelers will clinch a first round bye with:

1. Steelers win + Ravens Loss + Jaguars Loss + any 1 win by {Falcons, Bengals, Raiders, Titans, Cardinals}
2. Steelers win + Ravens Loss + any 1 win by {Falcons, Bengals, Raiders, Titans}
3. Steelers win + Ravens Loss + Cardinals win + Buccaneers win.

Updated on 12/8 1:30 EST - I left the old scenarios in so the comments would make sense.

PITTSBURGH Steelers
  Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
   1) PIT win + JAC loss or tie + NE win or tie + MIA loss or tie
   2) PIT win + IND loss or tie + NE win or tie + MIA loss or tie
   3) PIT win + IND loss or tie + NE win or tie + OAK loss or tie + SD loss or tie
   4) PIT win + IND loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + OAK loss or tie
   5) PIT tie + MIA loss or tie + OAK loss or tie + SD loss or tie + IND loss
  There are other scenarios in which Pittsburgh may clinch a playoff spot if
 they clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.

Updated Link

Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
1) PIT win + JAX loss/tie + NYJ win/tie + NE win/tie
2) PIT win + IND loss/tie + SD loss/tie + OAK loss/tie
3) PIT win + IND loss/tie + SD loss/tie + NY win/tie + NE win/tie
4) PIT win + IND loss/tie + NYJ win/tie + OAK loss/tie

Atlanta, New England, and the Jets can clinch next week also.

from JoeNFL's Playoff Blog on CBS Sports Blog (He handled the official tiebreakers for the NFL from the 1992 playoffs through the 1999 season and has worked with the League and their official stats source (Elias Sports Bureau) in compiling the official tiebreaker scenarios since leaving the League to join CBS in 2000) - Link

Now that we are 11 games through the season, we know even more about the playoff & tie-break scenarios. 

The Steelers are guaranteed to make the playoffs if they finish 3-2 or better.

-    The Steelers cannot win the Common Games tie-break against the Ravens.
-    The Steelers cannot lose the Common Games tie-break against the Jaguars, Chiefs, Raiders, or Chargers.

@ 13-3 – the Steelers will win the division but can still be seeded 1 or 2.
@ 12-4 – the Steelers make the playoffs but can be seeded 1, 2, 5, or 6.
@ 11-5 – the Steelers make the playoffs but can be seeded 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.
@ 10-6 – there are many scenarios left

                  Miami & Kansas City can knock the Steelers out if either finishes @ 11-5 + doesn't win the division;

                  No other tie-breaks have been settled @ 10-6 due to the possibility of 3-team or 4-team ties.

A win this week against the Ravens will give us the divisional tie-break if the Steelers beat the Bengals in Week 14 & the Browns in Week 17.  If we lose either of these games, the division could go to the Strength of Victory tie-break - which is currently dead even.

There are a few scenarios that will eliminate teams from divisional races and a few that will eliminate teams from the playoffs.  The Panthers, Lions, Bills, & Bengals are already eliminated from the playoffs.  The Browns are eliminated from the playoffs with a loss and a Steelers/Ravens tie.  The Broncos, Cowboys, & Vikings can be eliminated from the playoffs this week.

Who should we root for this week (based only on records & tie-break scenarios)?

Houston at Philadelphia – Eagles due to Texans Record; Texans loss will give them 7 losses

New Orleans at Cincinnati – Bengals due to Strength of Victory

Jacksonville at Tennessee – Titans due to Jaguars Record; Jaguars have tie-break over the Steelers @ 10-6

Buffalo at Minnesota – Bills due to Strength of Victory

Denver at Kansas City – Broncos due to Chiefs Record + Conference Record

Cleveland at Miami – Browns due to Dolphins Record

Oakland at San Diego – Raiders due to Chargers Record + due to Strength of Victory

Atlanta at Tampa Bay – Falcons due to Strength of Victory against the Ravens

Carolina at Seattle – Panthers due to potential Strength of Victory

Dallas at Indianapolis – Cowboys due to Colts Record

N.Y. Jets at New England – Jets due Patriots Record + Head-to-Head over the Steelers

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – No brainer

Games that may matter for Strength of Victory Tie-breaks
Chicago at Detroit
Washington at N.Y. Giants
San Francisco at Green Bay
St. Louis at Arizona

Now that we are 10 games through the season, the playoff & tie-break scenarios are becoming clearer.  The Steelers cannot win the Common Games tie-break against the Ravens.

@ 13-3 - the Steelers will win the division but can still be seeded 1 or 2.

@ 12-4 - the Steelers make the playoffs but can be seeded 1,2,3,5, or 6.

@ 11-5 - there are only 3 scenarios that would leave the Steelers out of the playoffs (they involve tie-breaks & the tie would have to include the Colts, Jaguars, or Chiefs)

@10-6 - there are many scenarios left (the ties would have to involve the Jets, Patriots, Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Chiefs, or Chargers)

There are a few scenarios that will eliminate teams from divisional races and a few that will eliminate teams from the playoffs.  The Panthers & Lions are already eliminated from the playoffs.  The Bills & Bengals can be eliminated from the playoffs on Sunday.  The Browns and Vikings can be eliminated from their division.

Who should we root for this week (based only on records & tie-break scenarios)?

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Now that we are 9 games through the season, the playoff & tie-break scenarios are starting to gain definition.

@ 13-3 - the Steelers will win the division but can still be seeded 1, 2, or 3.

@ 12-4 - there is still 1 scenario that would leave the Steelers out of the playoffs (Ravens win out; Jaguars win out; Colts only lose to Jags; Pats lose to the Jets and [none or 1 more]; Jets only lose to the Steelers - we would lose the tie-break to the Colts due to the Common Games tie-break)

@ 11-5 - there are still a few scenarios that would leave the Steelers out of the playoffs (involves various ties for the 2nd wild card spot with Jaguars,Colts,Titans,Chiefs,Raiders,Chargers,Patriots,Jets,Dolphins)

@10-6 - there are too many scenarios left.

Who should we root for this week (based only on records & tie-break scenarios)?

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With Tomlin as head coach, there are 2 types of games - wins and close ones.  As good as Tomlin's record is in games decided by 8 or more points (and it is an amazing record), the Steelers' seasons are determined by the close games.

Let's hope that the Steelers can win the close games this year.

Games 7 point difference or less

2007 2-6

2008 7-2

2009 4-7

2010 7-2

Total 20-17

Games more than 7 point difference

2007 8-1

2008 8-2

2009 5-0

2010 7-2

Total 28-5

Updated (1/24/11) - 2010 is comparing well with the 2008 season.

(or The Best Starts to Steelers Seasons - 50 Year History)

The Big Ben suspension had most NFL "experts" predicting a 1-3 Steelers start.  Many fans would have been happy with a 2-2 start.  It's good that the NFL lets the teams play the games on the field...

With a Steelers win tomorrow against Tampa, 2010 would be tied for 4th for wins to open a Steelers season over the past 50 years.  We would have to go back to the days of the Steel Curtain and Bradshaw to find a better start.

7-0          (1) 1978

4-0          (2) 1979,1973

3-0          (3) 2007,1992,1982

2-0-1       (1) 1963 - tied 1st wk.

2-0          (6) 2008,2005,1999,1998,1995,1980

1-0-1       (2) 1974,1966

1-0          (14) 2009,2006,2004,2003,1991,1988,1987,1985,1977,1975,1972,1969,1967,1960

0-0          (21) 2002,2001,2000,1997,1996,1994,1993,1990,1989,1986,1984,1983,1981,1976, ......................1971,1970,1968,1965,1964,1962,1961

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Pittsburgh_Steelers_starting_quarterbacks

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Some useless stats -

Over the past 10 years, there have been 19 teams to make the playoffs with less than 10 wins. 

This would be 19 out of 120 teams or 15.8% of all of the playoff teams.

Only 1 of these teams listed below made it to the Super Bowl;

In fact, only 3 teams have ever made the Super Bowl with less than 10 wins in a full season

1 has won.

• Green Bay 1967 Season  Super Bowl II
• Los Angeles Rams  1979 Season  Super Bowl XIV
• Arizona Cardinals  2008 Season  Super Bowl XLIII

Note that the two teams that lost in the Super Bowl played the Steelers & the team that did not play the Steelers won the Super Bowl. 

Now some fun with statistics - This would show statistically that if the Steelers get to the Super Bowl with a 9-7 record, they have to win it since:

• The Steelers are the only team that has beaten a team with less than 10 wins in a Super Bowl
• And every other team with less than 10 wins in a full season that makes it to the Super Bowl has won.

Bumped. Thanks to Sick Puppy for so diligently keeping tabs on all of this the past few weeks. - Blitz - (Michael B.)

1) Pittsburgh win + Houston loss/tie + New York loss/tie
2) Pittsburgh win + Baltimore loss/tie + Denver loss/tie + New York loss/tie
3) Pittsburgh win + Houston loss/tie + Baltimore loss/tie
+ a bunch of scenarios involving Pittsburgh ties

For #1 - Denver/Baltimore/Pittsburgh are tied @9-7
5-seed) Baltimore has the divisional tie-break over Pittsburgh; Pitt is eliminated
                Baltimore has the HTH tie-break over Denver;
6-seed) Pittsburgh/Denver are left;
                Pittsburgh will win HTH against Denver

For #2 - Houston/Pittsburgh are tied @9-7
5-seed) Houston has the common games tie-break over Pittsburgh;
6-seed) Pittsburgh

For #3 – New York/Denver/Pittsburgh are tied @9-7
5-seed) New York & Denver are tied in Conf. Record; Pitt is eliminated;
                New York will win the Common Games tie-break with Denver;
6-seed) Pittsburgh/Denver are left;
                Pittsburgh will win HTH against Denver

Pittsburgh can get the 5-seed with losses by Baltimore, Houston, & New York.  It is not included in the scenarios because Scenario #1 includes losses by 2 of the 3.  A loss by the third team just improves our seed and is not required.

By now, we all know who to root for this week in games involving the major players:

Pittsburgh over Baltimore          (no-brainer)

Philadelphia over Denver            (Denver must lose 1 more game)

Miami over Houston                    (Houston has a Common Games tie break)

Indianapolis over New York         (New York has a Conference Record tie break)

New England over Jacksonville    (Jacksonville has a Conference Record tie break)

There is still a scenario involving a 3-way tie with Pittsburgh, Houston, and Denver @9-7 that will go to the Strength of Victory tie-breaker.  It is not a likely scenario but anything can happen in today's NFL.

To get to this scenario:

1. Pittsburgh wins twice (9-7; 6-6);
2. Houston wins twice (9-7, 6-6);
3. Denver beats Philadelphia and loses to Kansas City (9-7,6-6);
4. Jacksonville loses once or twice (8-8);
5. New York loses once or twice (8-8);

Baltimore would need to win their last game for Pittsburgh to get into the playoffs as noted below.

This 3-way tie between Pittsburgh, Houston, and Denver would eliminate the Head-to Head and Common Games tie-breaker.  Conference records would be tied at 6-6; meaning that the Strength of Victory (SOV) tie breaker would be used.  Since we know which games must be won or loss to get to this tie, the SOV games won for each team as of today would be:

1. Denver      (68)
2. Pittsburgh (67)
3. Houston    (54) - There are not enough games left for Houston to win this tie breaker

However, this is deceiving since several games must have a definite winner and loser to get to this scenario; given Pittsburgh 1 additional win and Denver 2 .  Also, Denver has beaten many teams that will play each other in the next two weeks, giving Denver an automatic 5 additional wins and Pittsburgh no additional wins.  So after adding these games into the totals, we have:

1. Denver       (75)
2. Pittsburgh  (68)
3. Houston     (still involved but cannot win)

Pittsburgh can still win this tie-break but only if 9 out of 11 games go the right way.

Week 16:

• Detroit over San Francisco
• Minnesota over Chicago
• Green Bay over Seattle
• Jacksonville over New England  (which we do not want because it would force Cleveland to beat Jacksonville in Week 17)

Week 17:

• Tennessee over Seattle
• San Diego over Washington
• Detroit over Chicago
• Minnesota over New York
• Green Bay over Arizona
• Baltimore over Oakland (Counts twice - Denver beat Oakland; we would have beat Baltimore once)
  
• Cincinnati over New York

This is a very unlikely scenario but it is possible.  We must win this tie breaker - the next tie-breaker is Strength of Schedule which Denver has clinched.  If Baltimore finishes 8-8 and we do not win this tie breaker.  Denver will take the 5th seed.  Houston will take the 6th seed due to the Common Games tie breaker over Pittsburgh.