I was going to suggest somewhere on this site that maybe the Royals will take a look at signing Mike Hampton to one of the ever popular incentive-laden deals this winter… potentially add a lefty starting pitcher into the rotation mix.  Sure, there’s absolutely nothing to say that Hampton can stay healthy for even a couple of spring training starts, but it might be worth a flier, right?  Then I got to thinking about all of these injury-prone veteran pitchers many of us talked about at some time or another last offseason.  You could put together a pretty good rotation (well, good circa 2002) with the oft injured free agent class of 2008.  But did any of these guys make the investment, regardless how small, pay off?  Here’s the brief list I’ve compiled and their 2008 statistics.

Bartolo Colon (BOS) – 4-2, 3.92 ERA, 27/10 K/BB, 39 IP

Jason Jennings (TEX) – 0-5, 8.56ERA, 12/18 K/BB, 27.1 IP

Freddy Garcia (DET) – 1-1, 4.20 ERA, 12/6 K/BB, 15 IP

Matt Clement (STL) – No statistics for 2007 or 2008

Mark Prior (SD) – No statistics for 2007 or 2008

Kris Benson (unsigned) – No statistics for 2007 or 2008

Jaret Wright (PIT) – No statistics for 2008, 10 IP in 2007 for BAL

Wow, clearly 2008 was an awful year for these types of signings.  I believe each one of these scrapheap savants will be available again this offseason and add to the list…

Mike Hampton (ATL) – 3-4, 4.85 ERA, 38/28 K/BB, 78 IP

Carl Pavano (NYY) – 4-1, 5.77 ERA, 15/10 K/BB, 34.1 IP ($13MM club option for 2009, Wow!)

Brad Penny (LAD) – 6-9, 6.27 ERA, 51/42 K/BB, 94.2 IP ($8.75MM club option for 2009)

Mark Mulder (STL) – 0-0, 10.80 ERA, 2/2 K/BB, 1.3 IP (10 IP in 2007; $11MM club option for 2009)

So are any of these guys worth even discussing for 2009?  Maybe not, but I still wouldn’t be opposed to seeing Hampton (36) signed to an incentive-laden deal given our lack of left handed starting pitching.  C’mon let’s keep that Braves pipeline flowing!  I mean these things work out sometimes, right?  Jaret Wright was a scrapheap pickup that worked for the Braves several years ago.  Thoughts?  Is it best to just stay away and spend spring training and minor league rosters for evaluating younger guys?

I think for my next post I’m going to look into finding the next Gavin Floyd or dare I say, the next Kyle Davies…

I know the GMDM article in the Star yesterday is already being discussed in another post, but I'm hoping the subject matter discussed here is different enough to not seem redundant.  The article seemed to indicate that GMDM won’t have much $ to spend in the free agent market this offseason so any impactful moves seem likely to come via trade.  However, I just don’t see GMDM and his win now (and later) and "pitching is the currency of baseball" philosophy trading Zack or Soria or Meche - nor does JoPo, it would seem.  So do we have any truly tradeable commodities that could net an impactful player at the major league level in 2009?  Let’s look.

1. David DeJesus – outside of Zack and the Mexicutioner, it would seem that DJ is the most valuable commodity.  He’s coming off of a career year (not that he blew previous years’ numbers out of the water, but…).  DJ hit .307/.366/.452/.818 with an OPS+ of 114.  That’s good for anyone and it’s great for a CF.  He can lead-off, hit well against lefties or righties (he’s a career .294 hitter against RHP and a career .272 hitter against LHP = solid), and best of all he’s signed way below league average for 3 more years (the final year being a club option).  CF is a demanding position and several high power teams will be looking to upgrade in CF this offseason (Yankees, Cubs, Braves, etc).  As much as I hate to say it, it might be time to sell high on David.  He’s been somewhat injury prone throughout his career.  It would seem that Mitch Maier possesses many of the same skills and is currently cheaper, faster, and better defensively than David.  But we really have no clue what Mitch can do as an everyday major leaguer.

Conclusion:  Listen to all offers for DJ this offseason (and I would think there will be several).  If he can bring back one major league ready positional upgrade* (MIF, C, OF, 1B) and one or two solid AA or AAA (or high ceiling low) prospects, I think you move him.

*Incoming player X has to be a reasonably established upgrade at a position of need (i.e. Robinson Cano, Max Ramirez, Mike Theriot).

2. Hiram Kyle Davies – is it possible that HKD built himself some trade value with his strong finish to 2008?  My guess is any 24 year old starting pitcher with his “stuff” has some value.  And actually getting some major league hitters out can only enhance it.  The real question is, does Kyle have more value to the Royals as a possible solid #3 or #4 starter in 2009 or would this be considered selling high in anticipation of the inconsistent Kyle (GD-it, KYLE!) returning?  And what could we get for Kyle?  Would a pitching starved organization like the Rangers accept a deal of Davies and a minor league pitcher (Pimental?) for one of their catchers not named Laird?  I’m still not a Hiram-believer (I’m more of a Hiram-hoper) so I’d certainly listen.

Conclusion:  Think hard about selling high on Kyle.  He’s very young, durable, talented and under team control for several more years.  Teams will overpay for pitching, no?  My guess is there’s potential Davies could net the Rs a piece of the 2009 major league puzzle, but it’d have to be a good piece since he’s likely to be a part of the 2009 rotation as we stand today.

3. Ron Mahay – Ron had a stellar 2/3 of a season, then got hurt and struggled down the stretch.  Still, I think Ron is valued fairly highly as a rare established lefty vet in the pen who can get both lefties and righties out.  He’s in the final year of a 2 year deal, receiving $4M in 2009.  Ron was a much talked about commodity at the 2008 trade deadline, but nothing came of it.  Doesn’t mean GMDM won’t receive a few calls this offseason about Ron.  Thing is, what can you realistically hope to get for a 37 year-old (he’ll turn 38 mid year in 2009) reliever with one year left on his deal?  This past July the Marlins acquired Arthur Rhodes for minor league RHP Gaby Hernandez; last December Milwaukee Acquired RHP Salomon Torres from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for RHP Marino Salas and RHP Kevin Roberts.   At the trade deadline in 2007 we all know what Octavio Dotel (a 2-month rental) brought us.  I know, I know… Dotel had that magical dollar sign associated with being a “closer.”

Conclusion:  Chances are trading Mahay does not help the 2009 club.  It seems he would bring a high minor league B or C prospect at best.  I’m not sure this is the way Dayton wants to go.  If he really thinks competing in 2009 in an option, I would think you keep Mahay and explore flipping him at the deadline.

4. Alex Gordon/Billy Butler – I don’t like the idea of looking to trade either of these guys simply because you’re selling low… way low, I hope.  It sounds like Gordon especially still has value around the league, but how does removing one of our supposed “cornerstones” (at least offensively) help the future of the organization?  I don’t know if it would be possible to pull a Delmon Young for Matt Garza type of trade this offseason, but I somehow doubt it.  Delmon had a solid rookie campaign.  Gordon and Butler are coming off of two unspectacular (probably somewhere between solid and mediocre, but a lot closer to mediocre) seasons.

Conclusion:  I think Gordon has to stay and I’m with some of you who have suggested locking him up while his value is low.  He’s a local (sort of) kid and it’s not hard to see him becoming a perennial all-star and who should be league average for his position at worst.  Now, if someone wants to offer up a stud pitcher or stud OF for Billy, I think you consider it seriously.  I’d love, love, love for Bam Bam to rake for the Royals for the next 5-10 (to 20) years, but it doesn’t look good for him to ever hold down a position defensively.  DH has to be the easiest position to fill through free-agency… (or maybe Kila Monster profiles there if we find a legit 1B or if Shealy somehow becomes a viable option).  I think flipping Billy for a legit position player or starting pitcher just makes sense.  Now, how realistic it is, I’m not sure.

I had thought about including Leo Nunez and Ram Ram here, but they sort of fit in the Mahay category (not as established certainly, but can you really expect to get equal value for a relief pitcher who has not closed ballgames?  My guess is no unless you’re willing to accept A or AA talent.)  And then there’s Jose Guillen.  I’d love to send JoGui packing.  Not even because of his anemic OBP (although that drives me crazy!!), but because for all his “passion,” I don’t see him solidifying a clubhouse; quite the opposite.  He’s rarely played on a winner (and he’s had his chances playing for a third of baseball).  The one true winning organization he played for kicked his @ss out of the post season.  Anyway, to trade Jose now would mean accepting $0.50 on the dollar and unless you’ve got some defunct junk bonds, that’s probably not a winning proposition.  I’d still listen (maybe Seattle wants him back), but my guess is the Rs would end up eating half of his salary (at least) and that still handcuffs us with no obvious choice around to step into a corner OF position.  (I was going to say “no one else around to pick up the run production,” but I’d argue that Alex Gordon or Billy Butler would have had nearly as many RBIs if they were batting 4th all year – which is why we all know RBIs are a lousy stat.)

Sadly, I see the above as the extent of our “valuable” commodities if Donald Zachary, Soria, and Meche are excluded.  At the high minor league level, even Carlos Rosa has a seemingly serious injury to battle with this offseason leaving only Dan Cortes as a realistic trade possibility (with any value).

What have I missed?  Am I completely off-base here?  Bring on the thoughts of the RR faithful!

(I apologize for the crappy formatting)

Here are some thoughts I’ve had recently regarding what I would do w/ the Royals if I were GM and/or Manager, for what it’s worth – which is absolutely nothing except to perhaps start some friendly debate here.  This is admittedly reactionary; and probably too impulsive, but after losing 2 out of 3 from Texas I’m ready to shake things up. 

Move # 1 Bench TJ (Obviously not an original idea… I think most everyone here has discussed this already).  Tony only sees the field as a defensive replacement in the 8th inning or later in games we have a lead and perhaps one start a week.  Also, and I think just as important, I would never, never, never put TJ and Gathright in the same starting lineup.  Ever.  And especially not at 9 and 1 so that you essentially have two guys back to back who can’t hit the ball out of the infield.  Side note: can Greinke play short on days he’s not pitching?  J  Anyway, Callaspo gets the starts at short until he proves he can’t cut it.  Meantime, I’m exploring all trade possibilities around the majors… I’m looking at teams like NYY, Philly, NYM, TEX, ATL, LA, ANA… anyone who has an established SS blocking a youngster. 

Move # 2 With Bale essentially ready to come off the DL, I DO NOT put him back in the rotation at the expense of Hoch.  I would put him in the pen and look at trade possibilities for him or Gobble.  I know Philly is looking for a lefty reliever.  And I’m sure they’re not the only one.  Also, I give Tomko about one more start before moving him to the pen in favor of Yabuta (Omaha) and bring up Davies (Rosa gets promoted to Omaha… have you seen his AA numbers since the second half of last year?  He’s ready). 

Move #3 I pick a somewhat set top of the lineup and just stick with it for 10 days or so.  My suggestion would be DJ, Callaspo (Grudz is great, but he’s not going to be here long), Butler, Gordon, Guillen (I’d really like to drop him further, but dang we’ve got nothing from the right side), Teahen, Grudz… and you can figure out 8 and 9 between the catchers, Gload, and German depending on who’s playing first.

Other potential longer term moves… I desperately explore the trade market for Mark Teahen and hope I can find someone willing to give up a SS, 1B or corner OF prospect.  I feel somewhat guilty for souring on Teabag, but I’m just not impressed.  Not that I think this is the answer, but does anyone else honestly think that Shane Costa couldn’t put up the same offensive numbers?  Without looking it up, I think Teahen is hitting about .260 with one homerun and 7 RBIs… um, he’s been hitting primarily 3rd and he has 7 RBIs!?  I know that says a lot about the top two in the order as well, but it also says “I don’t hit for extra bases, nor do I hit much w/ RISP.”  I’m pretty sure if given regular PT, Costa could match or surpass that.  One of the things I really liked about Teahen was his sneaky speed, but he’s only stolen one base so far this year.  He seems to be a very good RF and currently an average to below average LF (I assume given the time, he’d be an average to above average LF).  I’m just not sure that’s all that difficult to replace.  Not necessarily with Costa, but with someone.  But if his versatility, youth, size, speed, eye, price tag can get you something (especially when coupled with Jimmy Gobble for instance), I’d jump on it.  I’d love to get Hu from the Dodgers (I don’t think Teahen is a good fit, though b/c their OF and 1B is loaded… they might need a 3B, though.  Is there any chance the Angels are ready to talk about Brandon Wood?  Maybe Teahen could fit in there as a supersub.  It would obviously take more than just Teahen, but could we put a package together?  Maybe Teahen,Gobble, and Pimental?

Okay, those are my thoughts.  As I said they mean nothing, but I think it’s fun to think about.  Go ahead, tear it up.  Let’s hear it!

Is it just me or have the last 20-ish years of being a loyal follower of the boys in blue left a number of scars?  Here’s what I’m talking about… and what I’m noticing more and more with this nice start.

Normally when a team wins 3 games in a row and then takes a loss to a very capable team, a fan could just shrug it off and say, “Can’t win them all.  We’ll get ‘em tomorrow.”  But as a Royals fan, I find myself somewhat terrified after each loss wondering if one loss is going to lead to two and then to 19.

Our pitching as been spectacular if not dominant so far in 2008.  Shouldn’t a typical fan simply revel in the success and salivate at the thought of Zack Greinke’s next appearance?  But instead all I can think about is how Zack got off to a hot start last year before struggling and being removed from the rotation.  Or how all the stat heads say Meche and Banny will regress, etc. 

This scar is more recent (Buddy induced), but when the 3rd game (let me reiterate, 3rd GAME!) lineup was made and no changes were evident (not counting Gathright since that was due to injury), I was wondering, why isn’t Callaspo getting some ABs, what about German?  And then I thought about how much I loathed Buddy using 172 different lineups in a 162 game season last year and I almost smacked myself.  What’s wrong with sticking with a lineup that has helped you get to 2-0 on the season?  Why not keep your starters in games?  I just got so used to the incessant shuffling of the last regime, that I came to expect it.  Scar.

I’ll stop there, but I think you get my point.  And I’m not generally a pessimistic person.  Quite the opposite.  I’m just scarred from loving a loser for so long.  Here’s to hoping this team and the teams of the next several years can help heal the scars (simply by being competitive; playing meaningful games as GMDM and Trey like to say).  And it starts with a win tonight over the division rival Twinkies.   Go Royals!

From everybody's favorite watered down team reporter, Dick Kaegel, we have this little nugget. 

That November 20, 2006, deal that brought LaRue to the Royals has been completed, Taylor tells us. The Royals sent the Reds $1. That's right, the big one buck that is sometimes specified as "cash considerations" if the two teams cannot agree on the player to be named. This is a fairly common practice. The Reds wanted to move LaRue and his $5.45 million salary that winter and they assumed a large chunk of it to make the deal. The Royals, in return, agreed to send the Reds a player to be named or $1. Reading between the lines, it appears the Reds just wanted to clear most of LaRue's salary off their books and really didn't care about receiving a player in return. They could apply the $1 to Ken Griffey Jr.'s salary. 

Personally, after LaPoo's performance from last year, I think the Reds made out like bandits! 

Also in the same mailbag, Dick predicts Alex and Billy Butts will each hit around 15 homers this year (possibly upwards of 20).  I, personally, would be hugely disappointed if Alex in particular repeated last year's line of 15 HRs... barring significant lost time, of course. 

I came across this article from CBS Sportsline and was unaware of the point mentioned in the final sentence.

http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/teams/report/KC/10618825

"Huber was a catcher in the Mets' organization before the Royals acquired him in a trade, then was switched to the outfield and later to first base. He is out of options, so the Royals must make a decision on him."

Maybe I'm the only one, but I hadn't noticed that Hubes was out of options.  Is this true?  Is it just me or does this guy have Matt Diaz (w/ more power) written all over him?  Or better, he seems like a Jeff Conine-esque player.  I understand that he's likely a defensive liability, but it seems like he'd potentially be a good role player for somebody.  I'm probably unreasonably biased, but I'll be disappointed if Hubes never gets a serious look in KC.  And sadly, I'm guessing by this point his trade value would be akin to that of Jeff Keppinger or Donnie Murphy.  Maybe we'll get some cash and/or a tub of sunflower seeds for his toils.

You play the GM...

Okay, word on the web is the Dbacks have an offer on the table for Dan Haren.  Now, this is just a rumor and could certainly include other players, but here's the rumor... http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/dbacks-put-offe.html

We know the Dbacks are offering a 21 year old OF w/ some pop.  He's only played 10 games at AAA; a 21 year old decent average no power 2B who I can only assume is a defensive whiz; and a 19 year old 2nd round pitcher with good strike out numbers in A ball.  Umm, there's got to be something else, right?  Anyway, as armchair GM, I'm determined to get in on this.  I want a rotation of Haren, Meche, Grienke, Bannister, and Hochevar (et al).  I've deemed Hoch and Greinke untouchable.  Billy Bean needs a CF and loves high OBP guys...

We offer:  Joey Gathright OF, ML ready, coming off best year, respectable OBP, base stealing potential, solid CF defense.

           Daniel Cortes P, 20 year old pitcher who struck out 120 in A+ last year with a 3.07 ERA

           Sam Runion P, 6'4", 220lb, 18 year old right-hander who struck out a batter an inning in rookie ball.  A 2nd round pick.

           Justin Huber C,1B,OF... still only 25 and ready to break out offensively.  Just needs the right opportunity.

Would that offer be laughed at?  Quite possibly (although I don't think it's significantly worse than the supposed DBacks offer).  Instead I'm substituting DJ and his contract (Billy would salivate over it) for Gathright.  I'm admittedly DJ biased, but realistically what would it cost the Royals to start Gathright in Center instead of DJ?  2 wins?  I think Haren (or Bedard) would mroe than make up the difference.  I don't see why we're just automatically out of any of these considerations...  

So my initial offer is DJ, Hubes, Cortes and Runion.  I'm prepared to throw in Blake Wood too.  81 wins in the AL Central is going to get you 3rd or 4th.  GMDM wants to win now.  I'm just saying...

Thoughts?

I heard on 610 yesterday afternoon that were was going to be a "Hot Stove" show tonight (Thursday) hosted by Denny and Ryan.  GMDM will be the guest.  Ryan described it as basically giving DM an hour to talk on the radio.  I think they'll take some calls too.  Anyway, it's from 6-7pm.  I don't think I'll get to listen, but it could be interesting.  Okay, it'll be the same old PC non-answers, but still it's baseball talk in late November!