SB Nation User Blog: Skeller

Add/Drop For Week 3

Skeller — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 00:23:45 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

There are two weeks down in the fantasy football season and your season is not going well. You've scared your children by cursing out Drew Brees. Normally fights with your wife are over finances; this time it was triggered by Frank Gore. You're asking the South African Athletics Federation to conduct gender tests on your fantasy football roster because you suspect several of them are actually women. It's OK man, I understand. Don't worry, it's only week two, there's plenty of time to rebound. Start off with a few changes to your WR corps. It'll make you feel better.

ADD

Laurent Robinson - Add him. A lot of people liked Donnie Avery's potential this season, but he's been seeing WR1-level defensive coverage and right now he's not up to it. That has left the Rams' WR2, Laurent Robinson, with some good opportunities as he has 11 catches for 141 yards and 1 TD in two games so far. Not earth-shattering, but worth a flyer if you have a bench spot.

Steve Smith - Add him. He'll be the hot wavier wire pickup after his prime-time scorching of the Cowboys, but Smith is more than the flavor of the week. Mario Manningham has had his success and seems to be the default WR1, but WR2 Steve Smith has quietly been the steadiest WR for the Blue so far. Go get him.

Mike Sims-Walker - Add him. Who the heck is Mike Sims-Walker? Beats me! He torched the Cardinalsfor 106 yards and a TD on Sunday though so that's worth a look. Holt is still the WR1 and he's attracting a lot of pass coverage because, let's face it, even opposing defensive coordinators have never heard of the other guys on Jacksonville's WR depth chart. If Sims-Walker has established himself as the WR2 with this performance, he could be a good weekly performer.

DROP

Sidney Rice - Drop him. So much wasted talent! He was saddled with Tarvaris Jackson, now he has to deal with Brett Favre. And let's face it, this team is the AP Show anyway. He won't see enough passes to be worth a spot on your fantasy roster unless Bernard Berrian goes down -- and maybe not even then.

Chris Chambers - OK, you needed another WR at the end of your draft. Phillip Rivers is a great QB, there will be plenty of passes to go around, right? You thought Chambers had a shot to be decent. It was a longshot. Don't feel bad about it, but don't hang on to him either. Chambers only has 2 catches for 30 yards this season and things won't get any better for him.

Eddie Royal - Here's a guy that looked like a great fantasy draft pick. He had solid stats (980 rec yds, 5 TDs) last season and if problem-child WR Brandon Marshall leaves the team, Royal becomes the WR1. It's a great plan! It can't fail! Wait! Yes, it can! Marshall still on the team and Royal only has 5 catches for 38 yards through two games. Worse, he's been supplanted as the Denver WR2 by Brandon Stokely. And Jabar Gaffney is seeing more work than Royal too. The Broncos seem to have extended their maddening running back by committee approach to their wide receiver corps. If you have a better option, think about cutting ties with Royal.

DeAngelo Williams: Is The Glass Half Empty?

Skeller — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 00:58:43 -0000

Panthers' RB DeAngelo Williams was a hot topic for fantasy football owners this pre-season. Normally a guy who rushed for 1,515 yards and 18 touchdowns the year before wouldn't present much of a debate, but his incredible 5.5 yards per carry average (a level that was never reached by either Emmitt Smith or Walter Payton during their careers) split fantasy players into one of three groups:

Group A let Williams slide, taking him at the end of the first round or into the second round. In some cases, they avoided him completely. People in this group felt there was no way Williams could repeat last season's yards per carry average and were worried about the continued growth (and workload) of RB Jonathan Stewart. These factors pointed Williams out as a potential bust.

Group B took Williams early in the first round, maybe even among the top five picks. These owners felt Williams had established himself as a legitimate stud running back on a team with a great offensive line. A nagging pre-season injury to Stewart's foot only cemented Williams as a great first round pick.

Group C drafted Williams with an early first round pick because that's what the magazine said they should do.

After a week one performance of 14 rushes for 37 yards (an unimpressive 2.6 yards per carry average) both Group A and Group B have reason to worry about their decision. Group A knows that Williams started off slowly last season too, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry through the first four games. A meltdown in the Carolina passing game likely means an increase in chances for Carolina's rushers, and the Eagles defense was simply en fuego last week. A bad first week doesn't mean that Williams is a bust.

Group B also has plenty of concerns. Williams started off last season with a much better 86 rushing yard performance. The supposedly injured Jonathan Stewart only received three fewer carries than Williams. Carolina's next opponent is a Falcons defense that completely smothered the defending AFC East Champions in Week One. A bad first week doesn't mean that Williams will repeat last season.

(Group C is still trying to figure out why this "Cadillac" guy didn't appear in the magazine anywhere.)

There's no way to say which group was correct right now. If you drafted Williams, you'll start him. If you didn't, you'll root against him. No matter where you fall on DeAngelo Williams, the debate will continue for at least a few more weeks...and possibly all season.

Add/Drop For Week 2

Skeller — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 03:05:12 -0000

After Week 1 of the NFL season, everybody is scrambling to the waiver wire. While your fellow fantasy owners are fighting over the "hot" free agents (yeah Mike Vick, we get it) this would be a good time to strengthen your bench depth.

Week 1 revealed that there are several backup running backs that you should know about, even if you don't need them as a handcuff. Everybody knows about Jeff Garcia, but here are some RB2s that most people don't know about.

Brian Leonard - Cedric Benson's solid Week 1 (21 carries for 76 yds and 1 TD) shows that the Bengals are willing and able to run the ball this year. If something happens to Benson, Brian Leonard will be the guy that takes over. Cedric is firmly in the RB1 role right now, but we are talking about a guy once arrested for drunken boating so anything can happen. If you have the bench spot available, Leonard makes a nice Plan B.

Garrett Wolfe - Matt Forte stinks. OK, not really, but he didn't look good (25 carries for 55 yards) against the Packers on Sunday night. He IS only in his second season in the league, so neither fantasy owners nor the Bears should expect him to be the second coming of Walter Payton. Unfortunately fantasy owners have done exactly that, but maybe the Bears have a different plan. Wolfe only had three carries on Sunday, but his 5.0 yards per carry average means the Bears should be looking to give him work to keep Forte fresh. With RB Kevin Jones out for the season, Wolfe looks like a critical Forte handcuff who may start to get work on his own.

Rashard Mendenhall - The Steelers couldn't do anything on the ground against Tennessee (22 rushes for 33 yards!!) and even though the Titans D is one of the best, that's a bad sign for all Willie Parker owners. It's an even worse sign for Rashard Mendenhall owners because when it became clear that Parker wasn't getting it done Pittsburgh went to RB3 Mewelde Moore instead of Mendenhall. And even worse than that, Moore did well. OK, five rushes for eight yards isn't that great, but in the fourth quarter and overtime they ONLY gave the ball to Moore. If Pittsburgh has a two-headed rushing attack, it could easily be Parker-Moore, not Parker-Mendenhall.

Earnest Graham - A lot of fantasy owners snapped up Graham thinking that he could be the TD-stealing fullback in Tampa. At worst he'd share time with Derrick Ward, right? Wrong! The Bucs unleashed Cadillac "Remember Me?" Williams on the fantasy world with a 13 carry, 97 yard, 1 TD performance. Derrick Ward helped out with 12 carries and a touchdown. Where was Graham? One carry for one yard. Abort! Barring an injury, it looks like Graham is the odd man out. Cut your losses with him now.

Fantasy Stat Breakdown: Week 1

Skeller — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 14:18:38 -0000

A few football statistics to chew on while you watch the first week of the NFL season (finally!!)

Starting Fast: They call him "Fast" Willie Parker and from a fantasy perspective there's a good reason. Since 2005, he's averaging 98 rushing yards per game in Weeks 1 through 3. In that span, he's topped the magical 100 rushing yard barrier in an amazing 10 of 12 games. Thursday's game wasn't a good example of this trend though.

Starting Slow: On the other hand we have Frank Gore. Since 2006, Gore has averaged on 79.5 rushing yards per game in Weeks 1 through 4. He's only had two 100 rushing yard games in that 12 game stretch and burdened his fantasy owners with five games where he finished with less than 70 rushing yards. Clearly, it takes Frank The Tank some time to get up to speed.

Who's That?: Since 2005, T.J. Houshmandzadeh is averaging 93 catches for 1,021 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Sorry, tell me again why isn't this guy one of your top ten fantasy wide receivers?!

Because He Switched Teams, That's Why: But the Seahawks finished with 12.8 more passing yards per game than the Bengals last season. If you want to blame that on Ryan Fitzpatrick, the year before the Bengals finished with only 3 more passing yards per game than Seattle. You're looking at two comparable passing offenses.

We Don't Need No Stinkin' RBs: Over the past two years, Andre Johnson has 16 touchdowns. That's more than Steven Jackson (14), Frank Gore (14) or Ryan Grant (13).

We Don't Need No Stinkin' WRs: Since 2007, Jason Witten has more receiving yards (2,097) than T.J. Houshmandzadeh (2,047), Anquan Boldin (1,891) or Santonio Holmes (1,763).

I Don't Like That Trend: Over the past four years, Carolina WR Steve Smith's annual reception totals have been 103, 83, 87 and 78. Over the same period, his touchdown totals have been 12, 8, 7 and 6.

Precision Play: In 2007, Wes Welker had 112 catches for an average of 10.4911 yards per catch. Last season he increased his average a tiny bit by pulling in 111 passes for an average of 10.4955 yards per catch. That's a difference of only 1 millimeter per catch!

Checking Out The WR2s

Skeller — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 04:42:17 -0000

In the NFL, the number one wide receivers get all the glory. Larry Fitzgerald. Andre Johnson. Randy Moss. They're the offensive engines of their respective teams and the heart of any successful fantasy team.

But what about the poor, forgotten number two wide receivers? <sniff>

Like most little brothers, they end up in the shadow of their more famous teammates. Oh sure, some guys make a name for themselves - I'm sure Anquan Boldin and Wes Welker were near the top of your draft list - but for the most part the number two wide receivers tend to be overlooked by fantasy owners.

Fear not little brothers, your time is coming. Here are some of the best WR2s in the NFL that are owned in less than 60% of CBS Sportsline leagues. If they're not owned in your league, now is the time to consider picking them up.

Patrick Crayton, DAL (Owned in 59% of leagues) - Crayton has always been one of those guys you picked up off the waiver wire as a bye-week fill in... this season you'll need to move more quickly. Now behind Roy Williams instead of Terrell Owens, Crayton will continue to draw second-rate defensive coverage, giving him an opportunity to make some noise. He won't win a championship for you, but he's averaging 5 TDs a year over the past four years, so he's certainly capable of winning a game for you. Besides, Williams has only started 16 games once in his five-year career, so Crayton should see at least some time at WR1.

Jeremy Maclin (Owned in 46% of leagues) - Some websites show Kevin Curtis as the Eagles' WR2, but he's been hurt this summer and hasn't really had a chance to play. That's not the case with Maclin, who is leading the Eagles in receiving yards (129) during the preseason. Maclin has the skills and the opportunity to be a fantastic WR2 for the Eagles and somebody worth a pickup in your fantasy league.

Deion Branch, SEA (Owned in 38% of leagues) - OK, I admit it, Branch has been a giant bust for the Seahawks as a WR1 but the last time he was a WR2, he won the Super Bowl MVP. Some guys just aren't ready for prime time. With T.J. Housmandzadeh on board, Branch slides back to the WR2 position where he's the most comfortable. He was injured last season, but project his 2008 stats out to a full season and he finishes with 60 catches for 824 rec yards and 8 TDs. That kind of production is worth a spot on your fantasy bench.

Earl Bennett, CHI (Owned in 34% of leagues) - I can see the reluctance of owners to jump on Earl Bennett, seeing how nobody has ever heard of him and that he's never caught even a single pass in an NFL game. OK, those are good points. But Bennett is the WR2 in Chicago this year and when he was in college at Vanderbilt he played with a QB named...wait, let me look this up....Jay Cutler. That's convenient, isn't it? The Bears aren't going to have a great passing offense and when they do throw the ball they'll be looking to TE Greg Olsen a lot. Devin Hester isn't a great WR1 though, so if you're looking for a deep sleeper, Bennett could be your man.

On No! Another Patriot Running Back In The Mix

Skeller — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 17:23:34 -0000

Fantasy owners know that the New England running situation is a complete mess. Sammy Morris is the nominal RB1, although the disappointing Laurence Maroney is still in the mix. Don't forget wily veteran Fred Taylor, who has looked good in camp so far. Of course the always-present Kevin Faulk is there to make your life fantasy miserable; last season he finished with more rushing yards than Darren McFadden, Ray Rice or Leon Washington despite starting only three games. There's no way to know how the Patriot running game will work out.

Now you can add BenJarvus Green-Ellis into the mix. Green-Ellis was an absolute monster in the versus the Giants this week, racking up 125 yards and 3 TDS on 29 carries. Sure, he was the only running back in the game (he had every RB carry except one) and yes, the QB was Brian Hoyer so you wouldn't expect a massive passing attack. But featured RB or not, preseason game or not, you can't overlook 29 carries for 125 yards. Those stats demand that you take notice.

Especially since we've seen this before. Last season Green-Ellis came out of nowhere to be a fantasy waiver darling, scoring a rushing touchdown in four straight games. He finished with five rushing touchdowns for the season, the same total as Larry Johnson and Willie Parker. He may have been a flash in the pan, but we're seeing that same flash again.

I'm not suggesting you draft BenJarvus Green-Ellis - he might be as low as fourth on the Patriots' RB depth chart - but his success demonstrates how uncertain the status us Patriot RB1 can be. Green-Ellis could disappear, or he could go on another four-game TD streak. The same could be said of Morris or Taylor or Maroney. Green-Ellis' recent production (and the obvious desire of the coaching staff to give him an entire game's worth of playing time) should be a blaring red siren to fantasy owners that any Patriot RB you draft could see his playing time disappear at any time. Somebody could break free from that group, or nobody could. Drafting a New England RB carries a lot of fantasy risk with little fantasy reward.

Deep Fantasy Wide Receiver Sleepers

Skeller — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 00:24:00 -0000

Looking to swing for the fences (to mix my sports metaphors) at your FFL draft? Or are you reviewing your draft and realizing you're weak at WR? Here are a few guys that are way, way under the radar..

Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE -- The rookie out of Georgia not only looks good in the preseason, he's outshining more heralded rookie Brian Robiskie. The Browns don't have a lot of WRs anyway, so there's a chance MM will get playing time.

Louis Murphy, OAK -- His only competition in Oakland is burned-out Javon Walker and fellow rookie Darrius Heyward-Bey. Come on, somebody has to catch the ball in Oakland. At least occasionally. He has 158 rec yds in the preseason already

Marty Booker, ATL -- If you want to go deep, deep, deep for a sleeper, how about a guy who isn't even guaranteed a roster spot yet? Booker is fighting for a place now but if he makes it, he has a chance to play. Michael Jenkins has been a disappointment and Brian Finneran is practically a lock to get injured. Booker could see some WR2 time by Week 4.

Hey, That Leinart Guy Looked Good

Skeller — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 01:05:28 -0000

by Paul Connors - AP

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Not many people noticed, but the big star of last week's Cardinals-Packers game was...holy cow!....Matt Leinart.

Leinart finished completed 24 of 38 passes for 346 yards, 3 TDs and an INT.

Yes, I know, it was the preseason. And the Cardinals were down by four touchdowns at halftime, so it was bombs away for the entire second half. I get that.

But...he looked good. An 11 play, 83 yard drive..touchdown. A 9 play, 62 yard drive...touchdown. A rapid-fire 6 play, 59 yard drive...touchdown. All in the fourth quarter!

It's clear that Kurt Warner is the starting QB in Arizona, but remember that the Cardinals are paying Leinart a ton of money to sit on the bench. If Warner gets hurt (and at his age it's more than a maybe) and Leinart plays like this, we may not see Warner again the rest of the season. With Warner consistently being drafted as a Top 5 fantasy QB, that's a bigger risk than people may realize.

Overrated Fantasy Running Backs

Skeller — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 23:10:53 -0000

by Bill Haber - AP

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With most fantasy football drafts completed, there's a lot of data out there on where players have been drafted. If you have your draft this weekend, that kind of information can be invaluable. Here are a few RBs that I think are going way too early.

All average draft position data is from CBS Sportsline leagues

DeAngelo Williams, CAR (ADP: 9.73) -- Last year Williams averaged 5.55 yards per carry. As a comparison, Barry Sanders reached that level twice, in 1994 and again in 1997. Walter Payton came close (5.46) once. Emmitt Smith never did it. So if Emmitt couldn't do it, and Walter could barely do it once, and Barry could only do it twice in four years, you think DeAngelo Williams is going to run like that two years in a row?! I don't.

Chris Johnson, TEN (ADP: 13.57) -- Chris Johnson had a breakout season last year, but let's remember that he only has 251career carries. He's far from proven. The Titans were a heavily one-dimensional team last year and in order to pump up the passing game they brought in...Nate Washington. Ooh! Everybody in the league knows the way to defense the Titans is to stack the line and make the passing game beat you. Johnson should have a good season, but 13th overall? No way. He may not finish as the 13th best RB.

Pierre Thomas, NO (ADP: 34.94) -- He's hurt. He's sharing time with a now-healthy Reggie Bush. And RB Mike Bell looks very good so far. What's the attraction? Sure, he looked good last year, but he only has 181 career carries. He makes Johnson look like a veteran and people are picking him up in the 3rd round? I don't get it. He's unproven, he's sharing time and he's on a pass-first offense. This guy isn't even close to a third round value.

Good News For Matt Stafford Owners

Skeller — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 00:41:22 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

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Daunte Culpepper is clumsy as *%$#

Injuries to both Daunte Culpepper (foot) and Drew Stanton (knee) meant Stafford was Detroit's only healthy quarterback at Monday's practice.

(...)

First, Culpepper cut the top of his foot at home Saturday night. The wound required eight stitches and left him unable to practice on Monday.

"He sort of stubbed his toe, and when the skin stretched, it tore behind his middle toes," Schwartz said. "If you or I had done it and gone to the hospital, they probably would have put in two or three stitches, but they wanted to secure it tightly, so they put in eight. We'll have to wait and see about his status for Thursday."

Now let me tell you, I've tripped in my life. I've tripped over my own feet. I've stubbed my toe. I've done drunken headers in the street. I've ripped a toenail off while wearing a ski boot. I've tripped over my infant son. If there's a stupid thing you can do involving tripping, I've probably done it.

But I have never -- NEVER -- heard of anybody stubbing their toe and RIPPING THEIR SKIN APART. I'm sorry, what the hell is that? Either that's the freakiest thing ever, or somebody is lying.

Either way, I don't care because it means Matt Stafford is that much closer to getting the starting QB spot. The Lions are nuts for even considering Culpepper as their QB. Matt Stafford is going to be the man this year. Hopefully the Lions realize that Culpepper's ability to injure himself (and the Lions) in bizarre ways isn't going to end.