SB Nation User Blog: Skeller

Bad Teams, Good Wide Receivers

Skeller — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 00:32:26 -0000

Player	Team	Rec Yds
Johnson, Andre	HOU	1575
Fitzgerald, Larry	ARZ	1431
Smith, Steve	CAR	1421
White, Roddy	ATL	1382
Johnson, Calvin	DET	1331
Jennings, Greg	GB	1292
Marshall, Brandon	DEN	1265
Bryant, Antonio	TB	1248
Welker, Wes	NE	1165
Wayne, Reggie	IND	1145

Last year was a great year for fantasy wide receivers: eight receivers topped 1200 receiving yards, three topped 1400 receiving yards and league leader Andre Johnson was only 25 yards short of a whopping 1600 receiving yards. Fantastic!

A closer look at the leaderboard showed something interesting though: six of the top ten wide receivers played on teams that didn't make the playoffs. Considering that bad teams usually are behind in games and tend to throw the ball a lot, it's easy to understand why. The problem is that there are a lot of non-playoff teams and not a lot of top ten wide receivers. Which ones do you target?

Looking at last year's list, you can probably count on Marshall to return to the Top 10 if he stays with the Broncos. Jennings could be a Top 5 WR this year and the combo of Johnson and Johnson are almost certain to be back (though Houston could certainly make the playoffs).

Here's my list of potentially great wide receivers on potentially crappy non-playoff teams.

Dwayne Bowe, KC - He has the talent, but his new QB might be spending too much time on his back.

Marques Colston, NO - The Saints are a very good team and they're probably only the third best team in their division.

TJ Houshmandzadeh - The Seahawks won't win the West, but Houshmandzadeh is capable of a career season.

Chad Ochocinco, Cin - He was the WR2, now he's the WR1 with a veteran WR2 (Coles) and QB (Palmer). Sweet!

Roy Williams, Dal - This assumes Williams produces at a level he hasn't shown to date.

Lions Make Great Move In Trade For Northcutt

Skeller — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:41:10 -0000

How about that for a crazy headline. "Lions Make Great Move"??? And then the word "Northcutt" in there too?!

But yes, it's true. Detroit picked up WR Dennis Northcutt in a trade with the Jaguars and it gives them a solid, veteran slot receiver.

Northcutt, a nine-year NFL veteran, has run many of the Lions’ plays before. He mostly needs to learn new terminology.

But he wants to make sure he knows every receiver position inside and out before training camp opens July 31, so he doesn’t have to play catch up with his new teammates.

"I will tell you: By the time I get to camp, I will know the whole playbook," Northcutt said. "That I have no problem with. … My job for the next month is learning this offense."

So even though Northcutt has been fantasy-worthless for his entire career, this is a great fantasy move. Not because Northcutt will be worth a slot on your fantasy team -- he won't be. It's because having a possesion receiver like him in the lineup will make Calvin Johnson and rookie Derrick Williams better. It will also make QB Matt Stafford's life a little bit easier.

The Lions just got better. Huh.

Dallas Should Bench Romo and Start Kitna. There, I Said It.

Skeller — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 04:46:57 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

17 days ago: Dallas Cowboys quarterbacks Jon Kitna (3) and Tony Romo (9) drop back to make passes duringpractice session at football minicamp in Carrollton, Texas, Tuesday, June 16, 2009. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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In a blog post on the Dallas Morning News site, there's an interesting article about how Bengals' QB Carson Palmer was praising his former mentor - and current Cowboys' backup QB - Jon Kitna. Palmer went on about how Kitna has a lot to teach starter Tony Romo and that Romo should listen to him. It was a nice, respectful comment by Palmer. Good for him.

But I thought the key line was right here:

Jon Kitna's arm strength is the most obvious reason he's a significant upgrade for the Cowboys at backup quarterback. Unlike Brad Johnson, Kitna can still put plenty of zip on his passes.

True, but the guy is missing the point. Let me rewrite that paragraph:

Jon Kitna's experience is the most obvious reason he's an upgrade for the Cowboys at starting quarterback. Unlike Tony Romo, Kitna can still complete plenty of passes to receivers that nobody has heard of.

And that's what it all comes down to. This year Tony Romo doesn't have Terrell Owens. He has Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin. Yeah, Miles Austin, he'll get the job done. How will Romo do with that group? My bet is not that well. How would Jon Kitna do? Well, he has experience with Roy Williams and he helped make a bunch of unknowns (guys like Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey) into legitimate fantasy stars. Kitna put up massive numbers with less talent than they have in Dallas. MIUCH less talent.

Which brings me to my real point -- I don't know if starting Kitna would win the Cowboys any more games, but it would sure be better for fantasy football players. Give Jon Kitna a solid running game, a good offensive line and Roy Williams, and he'll throw for 4000 yards. I'm sure of it. Give Tony Romo the same things, and he throws for 15-20% fewer yards.

This might seem mercenary to Cowboy fans, but I don't care. I want to see great fantasy production out of the Dallas passing offense and I think Jon Kitna is the one to deliver it. Do it Dallas, bench Romo and start Kitna. You won't regret it.

Well, I won't regret it.

Preseason Fantasy Rankings: Quarterbacks 1-10

Skeller — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 03:52:11 -0000

More photos » by Bill Haber - AP

Drew Brees tops my pre-season fantasy QB rankings. (AP Photo/Bill Haber, File)

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Everybody loves fantasy rankings and now that we're at the MLB All-Star Break (just work with me here), I figure it's time to bring out the preseason rankings. These are based on my thoughts right now -- naturally, a lot will change between now and that first kickoff.

Rank	Player	Team	Comments
1	Brees, Drew	NO	He was probably the best fantasy QB in your league last year and he has all the weapons back in 2009.
2	Manning, Peyton	IND	Indianapolis doesn't rebuild, they reload. Anthony Gonzalez finally gets to show his stuff.
3	Brady, Tom	NE	He gets the benefit of the doubt on the knee injury, but I'm far from certain he belongs here yet.
4	Warner, Kurt	ARZ	This is based on Anquan Boldin re-signing. If Boldin skips town, Warner drops.
5	McNabb, Donovan	PHI	DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin give him two big weapons. A gimpy Brian Westbrook would actually increase the value of the passing offense.
6	Ryan, Matt	ATL	Take last season; add some experience and Tony Gonzalez. If Michael Jenkins decides to not suck this year, Ryan could be even better than this.
7	Rivers, Philip	SD	For Rivers' entire NFL career opposing defenses have feared the SD running game. There's less fear this year, so we'll see how Rivers handles it. I'm pessimistic.
8	Edwards, Trent	BUF	He now has two Top 20 WRs and a Top 15 RB. What's not to love?
9	Rodgers, Aaron	GB	Last year was essentially his rookie season and he threw for 4,038 yds. He's only going to get better. The RB picture is a mess though, and he needs somebody to take pressure off Jennings.
10	Orton, Kyle	DEN	Josh McDaniels' offense is going to provide Orton with plenty of opportunities to put up big numbers. Unless Brandon Marshall leaves town, in that case Orton plummets (and the Broncos finish 6-10)

NFL Marketing Now Targeting Fetuses, Zygotes Next

Skeller — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 18:07:05 -0000

Trust me, it looks better on her.

View full size photo uploaded June 28, 2009

Can't get enough NFL stuff? Does your wife look like your brother Earl wearing all your manly NFL stuff? Need a great baby shower gift? Well then, Reebok has the thing for you!

Reebok International will launch maternity T-shirts next year targeting moms-to-be who are NFL fans.

The short- and long-sleeved cotton shirts, available with the logos of every NFL team, will feature graphics such as "Rookie," "#1 NFL Draft Pick 2030," "Mom’s Tiny Kicker" and "Fan Pending."

Well, that's great. The spokeswoman for this product will be Elizabeth "Wife of Tim" Hasselbeck, but I think the NFL really missed an opportunity by not having Tom Brady endorse this. Think of the possibilities

"Hi, I'm Tom Brady. I've impregnated enough women to know that when they get all big and huge, they feel kind of bad. Make them feel better with this great NFL maternity shirt! It's got a logo and everything on it!"

I'm telling you, I should be in marketing.

Big Fantasy Football Questions - QB Tony Romo

Skeller — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 20:52:19 -0000

The Terrell Owens trade had me thinking about the Cowboys. It seems pretty clear that the loss of T.O. will hurt Tony Romo's fantasy value. Dallas may still bring in another high-end WR, but even so it will be tough for Romo to replace the WR1 he has worked with for the past three years.

Then I thought: what if it's more than just a loss of a WR? What if it's bigger than that?

So it's time for Episode Four of...

Skeller's Big Fantasy Football Questions

QUESTION #4 : Did Terrell Owens Make Tony Romo A Star?

Players Heavily Affected: QB Tony Romo, RB Marion Barber, TE Jason Witten, WR Roy Williams.

Terrell Owens joined the Cowboys before the start of the 2006 season. Tony Romo became a starter during the 2006 season. Before that, Romo was just an unknown backup from Eastern Illinois. There have been some very good QBs from little schools -- two current examples that spring to mind are Kurt Warner (Northern Iowa) and Joe Flacco (Delaware) -- but that's the exception rather than the rule. Usually, you don't see a successful QB come from anywhere other than BCS-conference schools. So...Eastern Illinois? Really? How'd that happen? Let's take a look at Romo's career:

2006 - Replaces an ineffective Drew Bledsoe mid-game in Week 7 but the Cowboys lose to the Giants and fall to 3-3. Romo takes over as the starter the following week and goes 6-4 the rest of the season. Becomes a star for a 5 TD game against Tampa, but throws eight INTs vs six TDs in December.

Final Stats: 2903 yds, 19 TD, 13 INT (2008 Equivalent: Kyle Orton)

2007 - Julius Jones and Marion Barber find their groove and everything is clicking for the Cowboys' offense. Romo becomes a fantasy stud and Dallas streaks to a 13-3 season. Romo throws more INTs than TDs in December for the second straight year though.

Final Stats: 4211 yds, 36 TD, 19 INT (2008 Equivalent: Phillip Rivers)

2008 - Julius Jones has left to Seattle and the passing game starts to sputter. He misses three games to injury and doesn't seem to be quite the same quarterback after his return. Throws more INTs than TDs in December yet again.

Final Stats: 3448 yds, 26 TD, 14 INT (2008 Equivalent: Donovan McNabb)

Keep in mind that Tony Romo has had only ONE GAME as a starter without Terrell Owens in the lineup. His entire career as a starting quarterback has included a future Hall of Famer as his WR1. That's a big, big way to start your career. Now that future Hall of Famer is gone and I think there's a chance that he's going to be exposed this season as a good-but-not-close-to-great fantasy quarterback. If you need a canary in the coal mine (an underrated song by The Police, by the way), his completion percentage has dropped each of the last two seasons.

I think Romo really struggles this year trying to throw the ball to Jason Witten and some other guys he's never needed to remember the names of before now. In fact, you could argue that backup Jon Kitna might be a better choice. But that's for another post...

One Man Debate: QB Aaron Rodgers

Skeller — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 03:28:24 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Is he the next Brett What's-His-Name? (AP Photo/Jim Prisching)

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Aaron Rodgers is regularly ranked in the Top 5 of FFL draft rankings. Pretty impressive for a guy with only 16 career starts. Is he really ready to become an elite fantasy QB? Or is he a flash in the pan? I debate myself to find out

PRO: Rodgers threw for over 4000 yards in what was essentially his rookie year. He’s ready to become one of the best QBs in fantasy football. Four Thousand Yards! How can you argue with that?

CON: The numbers were nice, but there’s no way he can repeat them for one very important reason.

PRO: What’s that?

CON: The Packers offense stinks! Well, maybe not stinks, but it’s certainly worse than last year. Ryan Grant flamed out and Donald Driver has to start showing his age. Where are the weapons?

PRO: Driver had over 1000 yards last season. Oh yeah, and Greg Jennings is one of the best WRs in the league! Did you forget about him?

CON: No, I didn’t forget but Jennings can’t do it alone . Who did the Packers add to their offense? Anybody? No.

PRO: Well, they drafted fullback Quinn Johnson.

CON: Oh yeah, he’s change we can believe in. The Packers scored 26 points a game last season and they’re going to do the same thing with the same people this year. Where do you see the improvement coming from? Rodgers is going to throw MORE than last season?! I don’t think that’s possible.

PRO: The change will come with the improved running game. Ryan Grant is ready to go this season. Last season was a fluke.

CON: No way. Teams have seen Green Bay is one-dimensional. They’re going to double-team Jennings and make Rodgers find other targets. Except that there aren’t any other targets. Where’s Mark Chmura when you need him.

PRO: I’m afraid to ask where he is. Look, Rodgers’ development is impressive. He had 2 or more TD passes in six of his last seven games. The Packers will need to throw and they’re going to throw. A lot. To a lot of people. He’s going to throw for a LOT of yards. Again.

CON: That won’t be enough. The Vikings have added Percy Harvin, not to mention old what’s-his-name at QB. The Bears added Jay Cutler. Matt Stafford is a huge QB upgrade in Detroit. You can point to an improvement in the passing game for every team in the division – except the Packers.

PRO: Rodgers IS the improvement. He is the team, he is the offense. They’ll be playing from behind for most of the season and that means another season of bombs downfield. Look, I agree that it’s not great football – the Pack might lose 13 games – but it will be good fantasy football.

CON: I’m not buying it. I can see Rodgers as a Top 3 fantasy QB in a few years, once he gets some more talent around him. For now, he’s the second coming of Jon Kitna.

PRO: You could do worse.

CON: True, but you could also do better.

Best College QB In Nation May Be Benched For Washout

Skeller — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 04:27:27 -0000

More photos » by Carlos Osorio - AP

QB Matt Stafford -- looking every bit his 17 years of age -- calls plays for the Lions during training camp. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

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In an article horrifically titled "Culpepper Making Pitch To Be Lions No. 1 QB", washed-up quarterback Daunte Culpepper insists he's the man to lead the Lions this season.

Culpepper's body is giving him a chance to restore the glory he enjoyed as Minnesota Viking. The 6-foot-4 QB says he weighs 260 pounds, considerably less than last year, when he played in five games for Detroit.

"This is the first time I've been 100 percent going into camp since 2004," he said, referring to the season in which he threw 39 TDs for the Vikings. "I feel great."

Holy cow, that's the worst thing I've heard all day and that includes the death of Farrah Fawcett. I think the Lions are going to be much improved this season (yeah, I know it would be hard to be worse) and they have several serious fantasy options in Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith and Matt Stafford. Notice how I didn't list Daunte Culpepper. That's because he stinks.

The best thing for shrewd fantasy owners would be for Culpepper to actually WIN the starting job. If that happens, you can get Stafford cheap in the last round. Then, when the Lions are 0-4 and the 320 people that still live in Detroit are throwing things at Culepper, you'll be sitting pretty as the Lions replace Culpepper with Stafford. Boom, instant starting quarterback.

Trust me, it's a foolproof plan.

Big Fantasy Football Questions - Tom Brady

Skeller — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 03:51:06 -0000

I haven't done one of these for a while, so I thought I'd jump back in with a controversial one....

Skeller's Big Fantasy Football Questions

QUESTION #3: Can Tom Brady Top Matt Cassel’s 2008 Performance?

PLAYERS HEAVILY AFFECTED: Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker

Now on the surface, this is a ridiculous question. Everybody knows Tom Brady is the greatest athlete ever to grace American sports. He wins Super Bowls. He marries supermodels. He has a great smile. He has an accelerated healing factor. He won the 2007 Indy 500. In this year’s Super Bowl, Brady will play LB and run an interception back 101 yards for a touchdown. He can impregnate Kate Gosselin with SEVEN children at once.

All of which is wonderful, but for fantasy owners expecting mind-numbing, record-breaking stats from Brady this season there are some doubts.

Matt Cassel had a great fantasy season last year. He finished the regular season with 3,693 passing yards, 21 TDs, 11 INTs and even ran in another 2 touchdowns. Fantastic! Can Brady can top that?

In seven seasons (not counting last year), Brady has topped that passing yard threshold only 3 times. He topped 21 TDs six times, but he finished with fewer than 11 INTs only once. It's hard to say one way or the other.

So, can he do it? Of course he can.

Is it likely, especially coming off a season-long knee injury? I say no, it’s not likely.

Take a look at what Cassel did for the Patriots. The Pats went 11-5 and just missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker. Four of those five losses came against playoff teams -- Pittsburgh, San Diego, Miami and Indianapolis. Those are tough games for anybody to win, even Brady. And in those four games the Patriots defense gave up 33, 30 and 38 points respectively. Since Brady isn’t expected to start on defense (yet), he won’t be able to stop opposing defenses from putting up big points. Sure, maybe Tom Brady could put up 38+ points against some of the best teams in the league, but maybe not. The Steelers turned out to be pretty good, you know.

The fifth loss, by the way, was to the New York Jets who put up 34 points on the Pats. In that game Cassel threw for 400 passing yards and 3 TDs, totals that even Tom Brady would be hard-pressed to top. So where does Tom Brady pick up extra wins? Especially since the Patriots’ schedule includes Baltimore, Tennessee and two games against a much-improved Buffalo squad.

If Brady duplicates Matt Cassel’s 2008 stats, he will be a great fantasy pick. If he leads New England to another 11-5 record, he will be a great fantasy pick. If you expect numbers from Tom Brady greater than that though, I think you need to tone down your expectations for now. The man is only superhuman after all.

Chad Johnson Screws Up Own Name, NFL Laughs

Skeller — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 13:49:08 -0000

More photos » by Tom Uhlman - AP

14 days ago: Cincinnati Bengals' wide receiver Chad Ochocinco catches a pass during football practice in Cincinnati on Friday June 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Tom Uhlman)

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I've been wondering exactly what Bengals' WR Chad "Ocho Cinco" Johnson is doing with his name change. I had heard that he legally changed his last name to "Ocho Cinco" (Spanish for Eight Five, his uniform number). But then sometimes I'd see it listed as "Chad Ochocinco", all one word. Pro Football Weekly has a good summary of exactly what happened.

Now the league has told the wideout he can use his new name this season, but because his name-change form in Florida was written as one word, "Ochocinco," that's how the NFL will spell it. The Bengals are switching to one word, as well.

Really? Johnson screwed up his legal name change form?! If you're filling out a legal name change form, don't you have somebody proofread it? Geez, what an idiot. And my spanish isn't good, but isn't 85 actually "ochenta cinco"?

So now his name is the spanish equivalent of "Chad Eightfive", which doesn't make much sense in any language.

I still think he's going to have a very good fantasy year though, so get ready to hear about Chad Ochocinco a lot.