SB Nation User Blog: Skeller

Fantasy Football Rankings - Tier 7 Wide Receivers

Skeller — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 19:52:33 -0000

Previous Tiers: Tier 1 - Tier 2 - Tier 3 - Tier 4 - Tier 5 - Tier 6

Donald Driver, GB – He’s the experienced guy the inexperienced Aaron Rodgers will be counting on. Driver knows the offense and the offense isn’t changing much even though Favre is gone. Driver will get his 1000 yards and he’ll still only catch a handful of TDs.

Calvin Johnson, Det – It’s only his second season so it’s not a good idea to put too much faith in him just yet, but he is going to be the best WR in fantasy one day. For a rookie WR, 48 catches for 750+ yds is fantastic. In fact, those are very similar to the numbers Larry Fitzgerald put up his rookie season – the next year he had over 1400 rec yards. Same insane talent levels, same type of pass-happy teams playing catchup in most games….hey, I’m just saying.

Hines Ward, Pit – He seems to be healthy again so it should be all systems go. I think the Steelers offense will be one of the best in the league, so I have to recommend Ward as a top-notch WR3. He won’t go deep a lot, but he’s good for 5-6 receptions a game which makes him surprisingly valuable in PPR leagues.

Roddy White, Atl – It’s hard to believe White finished tied for third in the NFC in receiving yards last season and that will make him the most underrated 1200 yd receiver in fantasy football. The Falcons’ running game is much improved with Michael Turner and White connected well (282 rec yds, 2 TDs) with QB Chris Redman in four games last season. And who knows, Matt Ryan might be a decent rookie QB. He can’t be worse than the Harrington/Leftwich disaster, can he? With Turner moving the chains, I think White is good for 1000 rec yds and 6-7 TDs, possibly less if Laurent Robinson really develops.

Fantasy Football Rankings - Tier 6 Wide Receivers

Skeller — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 19:40:54 -0000

Previous Tiers: Tier 1 - Tier 2 - Tier 3 - Tier 4 - Tier 5

Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ – I wrote earlier that he had roughly the same stats last year with Pennington/Clemens as Donald Driver had with Favre. Cotchery has tons of talent so I expect him to (at least) triple his 2 TDs from last year, but don’t expect the second coming of Reggie Wayne when it comes to receiving yardage.

Marvin Harrison, Ind – All signs point to him being healthy and ready to start the season. He’s lost a step or two though, so let somebody else draft him for his decade of name-recognition. Name-recognition probably isn’t scored in your league. He’s good for 1000 yards and maybe 8-9 touchdowns though, which would make him a nice WR2. Keep in mind he still has some legal issues hanging over his head

Brandon Marshall, Den – If you’ve been reading these WR rankings you may have been thinking “Where the hell is Brandon Marshall?!” Well here he is, way down here in Tier Six. Marshall had a breakout season last year (1325 rec yds) but a series of off-season mistakes and injuries led to a suspension of between 1 and 3 games. It still doesn’t seem as though his head is on straight though and the Broncos offense doesn’t have much room for error as it is. Their once-vaunted running game is a mash-up of guys you don’t know and there’s a big risk Denver is descending into a one-dimensional offense. Marshall is still a good fantasy option, but if he flamed out into an 800 yard season it wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

Santana Moss, Was – I think Moss is a great candidate for a breakout season. He has new receivers to take some of the pressure off, a QB who’s a breakout candidate himself, a great rushing game and a new coach who’s installing a new passing offense. All the pieces are there for a 1200+ yard, 10 TD season. That’s not a prediction, but that’s the upside. The prediction is 1000 yards and 7 TDs, which is good enough to get the job done.

Fantasy Football Rankings - Tier 5 Wide Receivers

Skeller — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 17:12:57 -0000

Previous Tiers: Tier 1 - Tier 2 - Tier 3 - Tier 4

Anquan Boldin, Arz – Another guy who missed time (four games) last season and still put up 850+ rec yards. Another guy who, if healthy, can put up 1100+ rec yards. If you can get him as a WR2 you’re absolutely set at WR. Big upside. Don’t worry about the contract fight, he knows he won’t get paid by anybody if he tanks the season.

Plaxico Burress, NYG – He’ll be over-valued due to his Super Bowl heroics but he’s still the guy Eli Manning looks to in the red zone. He increased his TD total for each of the past four years, but that streak ends in 2008. I don’t see anyway he tops 12 touchdown passes this year. He’s a solid 1000 rec yds / 10 TD option, but he’s not one of the greats.

Greg Jennings, GB –The Favre-Jennings connection produced 920 rec yards and 12 TDs – and Jennings was the WR2. Not too shabby. Things have changed now as Jennings is more of the WR1 and Favre is the QB of the Jets. I expect Jennings to finish with fewer touchdowns and fewer Sportscenter appearances than last year. Don’t go overboard – he’s a good WR but not a rock star.

Santonio Holmes, Pit – While Hines Ward is still the senior member of the Steelers’ receiving corps, Holmes is now the primary receiver. That’s good news for Holmes owners, as the Steelers will be throwing the ball more this season and have rookie Limas Sweed around to take some of the heat. I love the Steelers’ offense this season and as he’s the WR1, I love Holmes’s potential.

Steve Smith, Car – First he gets suspended two games for attacking his own teammate, then he suffers a concussion. If you’re lucky, he’ll be downgraded at your draft, because once Week 3 rolls around he should explode. I’m not worried about all the problems, that’s just Steve being Steve. He has better receivers (Muhammad, Hackett) and a better running game (Stewart) than he’s had in years.

Wes Welker, NE – What can you say about 112 catches? I can say that I think he’ll come close to doing it again. The Patriots have joined the Colts as teams with two legitimate fantasy WR1s. Expect 1000+ yards and 6-8 TDs again from Welker, which would make him a superb fantasy WR2. Don’t forget he also runs back punts if your league scores for that.

Fantasy Football Rankings - Tier 4 Wide Recievers

Skeller — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 18:45:08 -0000

Previous Tiers: Tier 1 - Tier 2 - Tier 3

Andre Johnson, Hou – Last season I touted him early, then he went off (262 rec yards and 2 TDs in his first two games), then I bragged about how I touted him early, then he got hurt and missed seven games. That’ll teach me. Even with that injury, Johnson finished with 851 rec yards and 8 TDs. Johnson still has some injury worries this preseason but if he comes back healthy 100 receptions and 1200+ rec yards are practically a lock.

Torry Holt, StL – I think the loss of Issac Bruce is going to hurt Holt more than people think. Bruce was no longer a top-notch WR, but even an older, slower Isaac Bruce demanded attention on every play. Does Drew Bennett? Dante Hall? I think not. Holt is still a WR1, but expect stats around 1100 rec yards / 7 TD instead of the 1300 rec yards / 11 TD he used to regularly put up.

Chad Johnson, Cin – Is it all an act, or what? He’s a great fantasy wide receiver, but he’s not a reliable fantasy wide receiver. Drafting him as your fantasy WR1 could turn out to be a huge mistake. I just can't recommend him.

Roy Williams, Det – This guy has so much talent it’s practically a crime the Lions don’t throw to him even more than they do. He only played 12 games but still came up with 838 rec yards and 5 TDs. If he stays healthy for the entire season, he’s a contender to lead the NFC in receiving yards.

Fantasy Football Rankings - Tier 3 Wide Receivers

Skeller — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 18:39:18 -0000

My two tier 3 wide receivers have All-Pro fantasy skills. If they get some help they can be as good as any WR in the game.

Marques Colston, NO – With Drew Brees throwing him the ball, Colston should be fine. With new TE Jeremy Shockey and 2^nd year WR Robert Meachem around to draw defensive attention, Colston could be a Tier 2 WR by mid-season.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cin – He’s a machine and with the expected demise of the Bengals running game, Housh should finish with over 100 receptions again this year. I keep him in this tier because he’ll be smothered by defenders if Chad Johnson implodes/self-destructs/gets traded.

Fantasy Football Rankings - Tier 2 Wide Receivers

Skeller — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 18:42:35 -0000

Both of these tier 2 wide receivers have the chance to be the best WR in fantasy this season. Not just a tier 1 WR, but the single best WR. They’re both that good and that's what separates them from the Tier 3 guys.

Braylon Edwards, Cle – As Derek Anderson goes, so goes Braylon Edwards. I believe Anderson will have another great season similar to last year’s, but if something happens to Anderson (that concussion, suckiness, whatever) then Edwards is in trouble because Brady Quinn is not ready for prime time. Assuming Anderson is fine, I think Edwards could exceed last year’s yardage and touchdown totals, believe it or not.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arz – He plays on a bad team and has had to work with a merry-go-round of quarterbacks, and he’s STILL one of the great wide receivers in the game. Unlike Edwards, Fitzgerald can excel with either Leinart or backup Kurt Warner, giving him a reliability that many elite fantasy WRs don’t have. If rookie WR Early Doucet is as good as he looked in college – hell, if he’s just better than former WR Bryant Johnson – Fitzgerald may also improve on last year’s stats.

Is Chris Perry The Bengals' New Starting RB?

Skeller — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 10:01:31 -0000

I missed this report from earlier in the week, but it's obviously important

Coach Marvin Lewis is praising Chris Perry, who would be the starting running back if the season started today, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer. Lewis said, "I do see Chris being very confident, and I think Chris feels like he's the starting running back and he feels good about that. Right now that's how we'd probably start the regular season. He feels good about it and he's exhibiting that on the practice field as well, not only in the games he's played but in the way he's practiced." (emphasis mine)

This might just be Lewis trying to motivate Johnson into stepping up his game, but I don't think so. The Bengals have enough problems without having to coddle Rudi, and Marvin Lewis isn't known for his mind games.

The Bengals saw how well Kenny Watson did last season (763 rush yds, 7 TDs) and he was just the unheralded backup. Most people forget that Chris Perry was a first round draft pick (26th overall) in 2004. The guy (supposedly) has talent even if we've never seen it.

I wasn't going to draft Rudi Johnson this year anyway, but now I'm thinking Chris Perry would make a sneaky-good late choice.

Fantasy Football Rankings - Tier 1 Wide Receivers

Skeller — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 22:15:57 -0000

I think this is going to be a tough year for fantasy wide receivers. Quality WRs are going to miss time with suspensions, with contract disputes, with injuries and with age. I think there are very few WRs that you can rely on – these three guys in Tier 1 are pretty much it, believe it or not. In alphabetical order:

Randy Moss, NE – Considering he had what was probably the greatest wide receiver season in the history of the NFL, you should prepare for him to have a poorer season in 2008. Here’s a warning: Moss finished with 7 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown in the 2007 playoffs. That’s the total for all three games. Good teams CAN stop him.

Terrell Owens, Dal – Some day – some day soon – I’m going to predict Terrell Owens as a fantasy bust. But not this year. Even though the WR2 is the underwhelming Patrick Crayton, this team has too many weapons for defenses to focus on him, and that means Owens will get his traditional 1300+ yards and 12+ touchdowns.

Reggie Wayne, Ind - He won’t top 1500 rec yards as he did last season, but you can count on him for 1200+ and 10 touchdowns. It doesn’t matter if Harrison comes back or not, Wayne is still going to rack up those stats. In PPR leagues, he’s even more valuable. Forget Moss’s big numbers and Owens’s trash talking – Wayne is the most reliable wide receiver in fantasy football. Period.

Fantasy Football Rankings - Tier 6 Quarterbacks

Skeller — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 18:55:32 -0000

Previous Tiers: Tier 1 – Tier 2 - Tier 3 - Tier 4 - Tier 5

I’ve just realized that the NFL season will start before I finish reviewing QBs and WRs. Not to mention TEs. So I’m going to crank through these a lot faster. Here we go, Tier 6 QBs. They’re worth having on your team, but only as backups. In alphabetical order

Trent Edwards, Buf – Edwards looks like he has all the tools to be a very good quarterback, but he’s going to need some experience so he probably won’t be one this season. He might be a decent QB though, with WRs Lee Evans and James Hardy stretching the field and RB Willis McGahee Marshawn Lynch keeping defenses honest. With a fairly weak schedule, he should be good for spot starts.

David Garrard, Jax – The Jaguars run all the time so the quarterback on this team isn’t counted on to do much. That’s good, since starting WRs Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter aren’t any good. And Porter is injured so the next guy up is Dennis Northcutt or Reggie Williams. Ugh. Garrard is a smart QB who doesn’t make many mistakes (only 3 INTs to 18 TDs last year) so he’d be a solid backup.

JT O’Sullivan/Alex Smith, SF – Once you find out which one of these guys will start, you can insert them into this slot. Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz is famous for starting unknown QBs (Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger) and turning them into fantasy stars so don’t be surprised if it’s O’Sullivan. This ranking is also based on the assumption that Martz’s proclamations of “We’ll run the ball!” is garbarge and he’ll have the QB chuck the ball all over the field the way that he does.

Vince Young, Ten – There’s no need to play the “Will VY explode this season?” game. Until the Titans get some damn receivers, no, he won’t. The Two Justins (McCariens and Gage) might be the worst WR1-WR2 combo in the league. Last year Young averaged less than 170 passing yards per game (that’s not a typo) and Tennessee spent a high draft pick on…a running back. There you go.

Fantasy Football Strategy - Drafting Wide Receivers Late

Skeller — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 10:25:16 -0000

Eric’s post from yesterday has me thinking about wide receivers. He drafted a team that is weak on WRs in a league that starts 3 WRs and he’s wondering if he’s doomed before the season has started. My answer: no freaking way.

It’s far easier to find wide receivers late in the draft – or on the waiver wire -- than it is to find running backs. In fact, it’s a lot easier than people realize. I usually go weak on WRs because I know it’s possible to grab them later.

I reviewed last season’s Top 20 wide receivers in Receiving Yards and checked to see where they were drafted. I didn’t have average draft position info from last year, so I used the draft results of last year’s SBNation Bloggers Fantasy Football League. That’s as close to a group of football experts as you’ll find anywhere. Also, I realize that receiving yards isn’t the perfect way to rank fantasy WRs, but it’s easy to work with.

Out of the Top 20 WRs, nine of them (45%) were drafted in Round 7 or later. In fact, three of them weren’t drafted at all.

Player	Rec Yards	Round Drafted
Brandon Marshall	1325	9
Braylon Edwards	1289	7
Roddy White	1202	*Undrafted*
Wes Welker	1175	12
Bobby Engram	1147	*Undrafted*
Jerricho Cotchery	1130	8
Kevin Curtis	1110	11
Derrick Mason	1087	*Undrafted*
Joey Galloway	1014	9

Notice that I said it’s possible to grab them later, but that doesn’t mean it’s easy to do it. For every owner who scored by grabbing Roddy White or Bobby Engram late, there’s an owner who flamed out by grabbing Michael Jenkins or Deion Branch late.

It's tough, but it can certainly be done -- nearly half of the Top 20 WRs from last year were available if you knew who to look for. If you find Brady or Manning drops into your lap in the 2nd round and then realize you need a RB2 in the 3rd.. don't worry. If you're prepared and smart (and a little lucky) you can grab great WRs late in your draft.