SB Nation User Blog: Sky Kalkman

There are two kinds of players that are undervalued by OPS+ that are properly valued by RC+: guys...

Sky Kalkman — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:02:10 -0000

There are two kinds of players that are undervalued by OPS+ that are properly valued by RC+: guys with lots of walks, and guys with lots of steals.

As an example, let’s take a look at Rickey Henderson’s career RC+ and career OPS+:
145
127

How about guys with lots of walks but few steals? Wade Boggs sounds like our man:
135
130

And guys with lots of steal? How about Vince Coleman:
99
83

Nice quick example of benefits of wRC+ over OPS+

Back in early April, members of the Dugout Central staff made predictions for how many wins each...

Sky Kalkman — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:04:36 -0000

Back in early April, members of the Dugout Central staff made predictions for how many wins each team would have in the regular season. Now that the season is over, it’s time to review those predictions and see whose crystal ball was the clearest.

And the winner is … Sky Kalkman, by a nose.

Dugout Central " Sky Kalkman Takes Dugout Central Challenge (and doesn't mind bragging about it.)

Time To Move On

Sky Kalkman — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 03:02:06 -0000

Thanks for everything, everyone. With a great lady, a new house, and (hopefully) a career upgrade, the time I have for this hobby has taken a hit. Overall that's a good thing, but for my role with this site, it's not. Therefore, I'm going to step away from managing and writing at BtB and leave you in the capable hands of Tommy Bennett and the rest of the writing team.

Thanks to RJ, who brought me on board last August and is one of the best at combining data with convincing, non-numeric arguments. Thanks to the SBN crew, including Jim, Trei, Chris, Tyler, and Eric, who have many more tricks up their sleeves. Thanks to the writers who have been part of the ride, you're all even more talented than you think. Thanks to all of you readers who have spent time commenting at the site -- the discussions have always been my favorite part. And thanks to Tommy Bennett, who has agreed to take over the managerial reigns. Tommy's a really smart guy with great ideas, and I expect him to take BtB to the next level.

Where am I going? Who knows... I'm not disappearing, but snarky discourse in comment sections around the web are probably my limit for a while. Feel free to drop me a line to talk baseball any time at skyking162@gmail.com or twitter.com/BtB_Sky.

Play nice. Ask questions. Go Pirates.

- Sky

What's your U/O on the 2010 season?

Sky Kalkman — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:26:38 -0000

There's some disagreement as to how good the Giants were this year. For evidence, see any discussion about BtB's Power Rankings, which had the Giants in the bottom third of MLB. BtB saw San Francisco as a 76 win team in terms of talent level, while the team actually won 88 games -- that's the largest disagreement between rankings and actual results for any team.

Over at BtB, I recently offered to have an avatar bet on the Giants 2010 win total, suggesting I'd take the under against most numbers. So, my question to you all is, what's your best guess as to how many games the Giants will win in 2010, ignoring any potential huge moves. How good is this team going to be? Thanks for your input.

A.J. Burnett, Career: 54.6 average game score, 17.2 standard deviation Andy Pettitte, Career: 51.4,...

Sky Kalkman — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 11:36:10 -0000

A.J. Burnett, Career: 54.6 average game score, 17.2 standard deviation
Andy Pettitte, Career: 51.4, 17.2

A.J. Burnett, Yankee: 53.3, 17.0
Andy Pettitte, Yankee, 2007-2009: 49.8, 16.3

And, for the hell of it:

C.C. Sabathia, Yankee: 58.1, 17.8

A.J. Burnett has a reputation for being wildly inconsistent, throwing three ugly innings in one start and then spinning a shutout the next. That angle has, naturally, been played up in the postseason, as the Yankees "can't be sure what they'll get" out of one of their more shiny investments from game to game.

The people saying that last bit are correct. The point they're missing, though, is that the same thing could be said for pretty much every other pitcher in baseball. Starters are inconsistent. When so much depends on the weather, the opposing lineup, and the defense, it isn't realistic to expect a guy to go out and have the same game every turn.

Lookout Landing - Our Center Fielder Is Better And/Or More Attractive In A Sexual Way Than Yours

Tom Haberstroh takes the idea behind our WAR graphs and applies it to NBA draft classes, charting...

Sky Kalkman — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 11:30:20 -0000

Tom Haberstroh takes the idea behind our WAR graphs and applies it to NBA draft classes, charting the average EWA of the best 30 players taken from each draft class of the past ten years, organized from most to least within each class.

Evidently there was some Twitter spat between Rockets' GM Daryl Morey (@dmorey) and ESPN columnist Bill Simmons (@sportsguy33) and @tomhaberstroh decided to join the fray with data. Interesting concept.

Twitter WAR: Fred McGriff, Tim Raines, and other Hall of Fame issues

Sky Kalkman — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:18:25 -0000

I don't really have any analysis to provide, but here's a compilation of the careers of some Hall of Fame candidates I've been discussing on Twitter with @jasoncollette, @tommy_bennett, @Marc_Normandin, @jonahkeri, and others.

Quick summary: I'm not as sold on Rock Raines as some others (who might be a bit homerish), I like Edgar more than most, Albert Belle deserved more consideration, Jeff Bagwell should be a lock, Larry Walker is confusing for everyone, and Jason Collette sticks his fingers in his ears when people point out that Fred McGriff isn't Hall of Fame worthy.

Based on all that, here's a convoluted WAR graph based on baseballprojection.com data. (Click for a huge version.)

McGriff is obviously better than Baines and Galarraga, falls in Belle's ballpark (depending how you value quality vs. quantity), and is worse than the rest -- we probably need some more comparisons for him.

Walker holds his own and appears to very much be Raines' equal. (Rally's stats really like his baserunning and fielding skills in addition to the big bat.)

Albert Belle certainly was a stud, but his peak is definitely too short for serious consideration, and I'm saying that as someone who ignores longevity more than most.

What do you notice? Feel free to add any bits of information you think support or damn a player's candidacy in the comments. Or links to good articles others have written on these topics. Or suggest other players worth throwing in the discussion.

Royals fans, what would you like to see on the promotional schedule next year? Giveaways, events...

Sky Kalkman — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 22:24:57 -0000

Royals fans, what would you like to see on the promotional schedule next year? Giveaways, events etc. Reply with your thoughts! #royals

@KCRoyals

Starters With Postseason Starting Experience 40 IP-20 ER 4.50 ERA Regular Season Baseline 1372...

Sky Kalkman — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 14:03:10 -0000

Starters With Postseason Starting Experience
40 IP-20 ER
4.50 ERA

Regular Season Baseline
1372 IP-536 ER
3.52 ERA

Starters With Postseason Starting Inexperience
32 IP-11 ER
3.09 ERA

Regular Season Baseline
934 IP-315 ER
3.04 ERA

Keep your experience, I'll take the talent.

Memories Of Kevin Malone: Gritty Veteran Clutch Starters

Daniel Murphy's New Approach To Fastballs

Sky Kalkman — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 14:39:10 -0000

Daniel Murphy's New Approach To Fastballs

From Sam Page at Amazin' Avenue, more than you ever thought you'd want to know about Daniel Murphy. Say hello to scouting using objective data analysis.