SB Nation User Blog: Slyde

Free Agent Options: Shortstops

Slyde — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 01:22:39 -0000

Marco Scutaro and Orlando Cabrera are two shortstop possibilities for the Reds on the free agent market this off-season.

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As Walt Jocketty spends his time in Chicago, cozying up to the other GMs for a long Winter's ~~nap~~ season of dealing, he appears to have two priorities on his mind: shortstop and catcher. The Reds had reportedly been trying to deal with the Brewers for J.J. Hardy, but those talks didn't get anywhere and now Hardy is in Minnesota, likely to be the starting shortstop for the opening of the new Target Field.

The Reds could stick with Paul Janish and hope for the best, but his combined batting line of .231/.317/.332 over the last 3 years in the Majors and Minors doesn't exactly instill a bunch of confidence in his ability to be the everyday shortstop for a contending team. Not that he is without his positives. He could potentially be on one of the top 5 defensive shortstops in the league. Based upon his very small sample in the big leagues, he's been doing quite well. He's posted a UZR of 9.9 in 118 big league games at shortstop - hardly enough of a sample to know what his true talent level is, but if it is anywhere around 10, he's one of the best. On a team that could be struggling to generate offense though, his defense may not be enough to make up for that putrid offense.

So, what are some of the options out there for the Reds to fill the need at shortstop? While they could still make a trade, it's hard to know at this point who (Hanley Ramirez) might be available. We do know who should be free agents though, so let's look at them.

According to Cots, there are 12 possible free agent shortstops available this off-season. I doubt that anybody seriously considers Juan Castro, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Ramon Martinez, or John McDonald as much of an option as an everyday starter at shortstop. I don't really feel like discussing Alex Gonzalez for fear that the Reds might read this and misconstrue it as a desire to have him back on the team. Adam Everett can still do a pretty good job of picking it in the field, but honestly, he's just an older, more injury-prone version of Janish. And Kahlil Greene is a decent bet to hit better than Janish, but his 3 year average for UZR puts him at about 8 runs below the average shortstop defensively. Given that even at his best, he's basically a league average hitter, I wouldn't say he's worth it.

That leaves us with four possibilities on the free agent market: Orlando Cabrera, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, and Jack Wilson. We'll take a look at each after the jump.

Orland Cabrera

I would have loved for the Reds to sign Cabrera a couple of years ago, but I'm a little leery of signing a 35-year old shortstop coming off of a bad season. Cabrera was only slightly above replacement-level last year (0.6 WAR) and that's mainly because he played a difficult position. His 3-year average UZR puts him at about 2.5 runs above average, which isn't bad for a shortstop, but his age leaves me concerned that his defensive skills may have deteriorated more than a 3-year average might indicate (his UZR in 2009 was -15.3). Offensively, he's much better than Janish, even in a bad season, but his wOBA has dropped each of the last 3 seasons from a career high of .331 (about league average) in 2007 to .316 in 2008 to .310 in 2009. He's definitely not trending the right way.

When I would take him: I haven't been too positive on Cabrera, but I would take him on a one-year deal for at most $3 million (he made $4 million on a one-year deal last year). The biggest problem that I see with him as an option is that if his defense has gone, his reputation as a great defender will precede him, which means that he'll never be taken out for a defensive replacement. He's not good enough on offense or defense to justify that.

Marco Scutaro

The first thing that jumps out at me for Scutaro is the red flag of an outlier year. Actually it would be an outlier 2 years. As a 33-year old, Scutaro put up his best season in 2009 (4.5 WAR), topping his previous best season of 2008 (2.7 WAR), which topped his previous best season of, well, he was never really that good before then. He is exactly the type of player the Reds should shy away from, if you ask me. It's not normal for players to suddenly get better and turn in All Star performances in their early or mid-30s. He is a high risk for a fall-off from his 2009 season, but baseball doesn't tend to pay players that way. I'm guessing that Scutaro will get paid as if he has found a new level, and I'm also guessing that won't turn out to be a good contract.

When I would take him: That's not to say that I wouldn't consider signing him. I wouldn't give him anymore than 2 guaranteed years though, and I wouldn't want any of his years to be worth more than $6 million. On the positive side, Scutaro increased his plate discipline dramatically last year, and that seems to have had a great affect on his output. His BABIP actually appears to be in line with expectation, so I wouldn't say his season was obviously fluky at the plate. However, the Reds don't exactly have a reputation for fostering patience at the plate. Defensively, he appears to be good enough that if he can stay around league average offensively, he could be worth 2-2.5 wins. I'm just not convinced that his offense is real yet.

Miguel Tejada

The real issue with Tejada is salary expectations. He has averaged $12 million a year over the last 4 years, and I would imagine that he's not going to be willing to take an overly dramatic paycut next year unless the market forces it on him. He is likely the best offensive option for shortstop available this off-season. He definitely doesn't have the output of his, ahem, prime years, but he's been slightly better than average over 2 of the last 3 years, and I think he's a safe bet to be somewhere close to average in 2010. The big concern offensively is that he only walked 19 times in over 635 plate appearances last year. Dusty Baker may like that, but it scares the bejeezus out of me. He did balance that with just 48 strikeouts, so at least he's putting the ball in play. And he's probably still good for 30+ doubles and 15 HR, which could give the offense a little bit of a boost. Defensively, he's below average (probably around 4 runs below average), but I think it's well enough known that he's not a defensive master that Baker would likely use Janish as a defensive replacement for him.

When I would take him: With Tejada, the Reds best hope is that he has too high of expectations for what kind of money he can get and he is forced to take a one-year "prove yourself" deal. If I'm Jocketty, I'm lurking around Tejada, ready to swoop in and make a deal at the first sign of this possibility. I'm not too worried about the money on a one-year deal because I think Tejada would make Gomes somewhat expendable, though it'd definitely be nice to have both. I'm not sure I would do multi-years for Tejada, mainly because I expect he'll be changing positions in the next year or two.

Jack Wilson

Wilson actually has an option that still needs to be declined, but I have a hard time believing that the Mariners want to pay him $8.4 million in 2010. Wilson might be an odd choice for the Reds to consider because he's basically a slightly better version of Janish, but he'll likely cost a few million more. However, Wilson is a somewhat better hitter than Janish, and has been much better at times. That potential could make him attractive as a free agent, especially since his worst season after his rookie year is still considerably better than what Janish has done as a big leaguer. Defensively, Wilson is close to as good as his reputation, and that's the most you can ask for a player that makes announcers go ga ga over his defense. The downside of Wilson is that there is no way you'll get Baker to move him out of the 2-spot in the lineup.

When I would take him: Something that I haven't mentioned yet, but is actually very important in these considerations is the type of free agent each of these guys are. Cabrera, Scutaro,and Tejada are all Type-A free agents, which means that if their respective teams offer them arbitration and they decline and sign with a new team, the new team will have to give up their first round pick. The caveat to this is if that pick is in the first 15, then they'd have to give up their 2nd round pick. So, if the Reds, who have the 12th pick in the draft, sign any of the previous players, they'd likely have to give up their 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft. It's not a enormous sacrifice, but still a big consideration. (EDIT: It appears that Cabrera is not a risk to be offered arbitration as his contract states that the Twins cannot offer arbitration to him, so signing him will not mean draft picks. Thanks to Thundering Turtle for the clarification.)

Wilson is not a Type-A free agent. He has however managed to be a league average players (about 2 WAR) over the last 3 seasons. This is because the Elias Rankings that determine the type of free agency don't take defensive value into account. Wilson is a very good defender with at least some possibility to be a decent, though not great hitter. Since the Reds wouldn't have to give up any draft picks, that should make him even more attractive. I'd consider him over Janish mainly because I think Wilson has a better chance to be average at his position. I suspect though that he'll be looking for a multi-year deal. Even if the deal is a cheap one, I really wouldn't want someone like him blocking Zack Cozart, who frankly looks like a much younger, cheaper version of Wilson.

What do you think? Do any of these guys do it for you at shortstop?

Monday Morning Quiz: Top 50 Career OPS for the Reds

Slyde — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:24:41 -0000

Monday Morning Quiz: Top 50 Career OPS for the Reds

This morning's quiz will test your knowledge of a lot of the Reds history. By no means is this an easy one, but there are plenty of players from recent times to help you pad your stats. This is raw OPS, so the more recent players have a slight advantage. You have 12 minutes to guess all 50 (I couldn't do it).

A couple of notes: We are only looking at player since 1901 and they must have 1500 PA with the Reds to qualify. We just looking for the top OPS with the Reds, not over their entire career.

As always, avoid the comments section lest your quiz be spoiled.

2009 SB Nation Awards: Manager of the Year

Slyde — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:27:34 -0000

SB Nation has announced the winners of its 2009 Manager of the Year Awards. From the National League, it is Jim Tracy, who took over the Colorado Rockies in May as they went from a team that was 10 games under .500 to the playoffs. Mike Scioscia led the Angels to their 3rd consecutive AL West title and their 5rd in the last 6 years, despite missed time from John Lackey, Vladimir Guerrero, and Kelvim Escobar.

Congrats to both managers. They will receive a lifetime supply of Rice-a-roni, the San Francisco treat!

Voting was done by all of the SB Nation baseball sites. Each site had 2 votes and we voted for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place for the award in our own league. Red Reporter was represented by BK and me. Neither of us voted for Bud Black or John Russell.

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Jim Tracy	Colorado Rockies	24	1	2	125
2	Tony LaRussa	St. Louis Cardinals	3	7	10	46
3	Fredi Gonzalez	Florida Marlins	2	6	5	33
4	Joe Torre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	9	2	29
5	Charlie Manuel	Philadelphia Phillies	-	3	5	14
6	Bruce Bochy	San Francisco Giants	1	1	1	9
7	Bobby Cox	Atlanta Braves	-	1	4	7
8	Bud Black	San Diego Padres	-	1	1	4
9	John Russell	Pittsburgh Pirates	-	1	-	3

Rk	Manager	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Mike Scioscia	Los Angeles Angels	9	8	3	72
2	Ron Gardenhire	Minnesota Twins	9	5	1	61
3	Don Wakamatsu	Seattle Mariners	6	3	8	47
4	Joe Girardi	New York Yankees	2	4	2	24
5	Ron Washington	Texas Rangers	1	4	4	21
6	Terry Francona	Boston Red Sox	1	1	3	11
7	Jim Leyland	Detroit Tigers	-	2	4	10
8	Joe Maddon	Tampa Bay Rays	-	1	1	4
9	Ozzie Guillen	Chicago White Sox	-	-	1	1
10	Trey Hillman	Kansas City Royals	-	-	1	1

Press release: Collectors, Reds fans and enthusiasts alike are invited to the Cincinnati Art Museum...

Slyde — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 14:50:27 -0000

Press release:
Collectors, Reds fans and enthusiasts alike are invited to the Cincinnati Art Museum on Thursday, Nov. 12 for the unveiling of a limited edition print, Redsland Forever (click link for larger image), by Cincinnati native artist C.F. Payne.

Redsland Forever features fourteen illustrated caricatures of Cincinnati Reds legends spanning 140 years of Reds baseball, including Eric Davis, Chris Sabo, Joe Nuxhall and members of the Big Red Machine.

The public is invited to a free cocktail reception from 6:30-8:30 p.m. An informal lecture by the artist will begin at 7 p.m.

2010 Reds Hall of Fame inductee Chris Sabo will meet and greet with fans prior to the lecture.

1,500 copies of the print will be available for purchase. Each of the 1,500 limited edition prints is individually numbered. Prints numbered 1 through 500 are signed by C.F. Payne, framed and available for $250. Unsigned, numbered prints are $50 each.

Prints are available exclusively at the Cincinnati Art Museum Shop starting Nov. 12. Call the Museum Shop at (513) 639-2958 to reserve yours today. They will also be available online at reds.com.

Proceeds from sale will benefit the Reds Community Fund’s baseball-themed outreach programs and the Cincinnati Art Museum.

What: Unveiling of Redsland Forever, a commemorative print by C.F. Payne
Where: Cincinnati Art Museum, 953 Eden Park Drive, Cincinnati, OH 45202
When: Nov. 12, 2009 from 6:30 to 8:30 p.m.
Admission: Free
Information: (513) 639-2922 or www.cincinnatiartmuseum.org

AFL Rising Stars Game Thread

Slyde — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:19:46 -0000

If you are sitting all alone at home and are bored tonight, flip your TV on to MLB Network at 8pm. The Arizona Fall League wraps up with their Rising Stars game. It's a chance to see some young players who could end up being stars in the big leagues in the very near future.

From a Reds perspective, there should be four farmhands getting playing time tonight. Chris Heisey is batting 4th and playing LF for the home AFL West team. Batting right behind him is 1B Yonder Alonso. Zack Cozart is on the bench for the AFL West team and Mike Leake will be in the bullpen. Since it is a showcase game, I expect we'll see all of them play.

If you can't watch the game on TV, you can follow along with Gameday. The game is in Surprise, so if I'm not mistaken, there will be Pitch FX for your viewing pleasure.

Friday Five: Best Reds Teams That Didn't Make the Playoffs

Slyde — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:15:33 -0000

1981 Cincinnati Reds

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One of the charming things about baseball is that it typically really means something if you get to the playoffs. If your team is good enough to survive 162 games with a great record, you most likely are one of the best teams in the league. The downside of that is that you can still be a very good team and not make it to the playoffs. Here are 5 such Reds teams.

1. 1974 Reds - 98-64, .605 Winning PCT, 776 RS, 631 RA

You had to guess that a team full of Big Red Machine players would top this list. 1974 was perhaps the strangest season of failure in the history of baseball. Most teams wouldn't have considered 98 wins to be a failure, but if you listen to the players from that team talk about it, you'd have thought they finished in 4th place. This team was essentially the same team as the one that won it all in 1975, but Pete Rose played LF and Dan Driessen played 3B with George Foster splitting time from the bench. Their 98 wins were the 2nd most in all of baseball, and they would have won the NL East by 10 games that season. Unfortunately for the Reds, the Dodgers finished with 102 wins that season and without a Wild Card, the Reds were sent home early that year.

2. 1999 Reds - 96-67, .589 Winning PCT, 865 RS, 711 RA

Since the Wild Card was added to the playoffs in 1995, only one team has won 95 or more games and failed to make it to the playoffs. A season that started with very little expectation - they were playing just .500 ball after 44 games - saw breakout seasons from Sean Casey (132 OPS+) and Dmitri Young (111 OPS+). Veterans Greg Vaugh (117 OPS+, 45 HR) and Jeffrey Hammonds (117 OPS+) led an unlikely crew to the most wins for the franchise in 23 years. And yet, it still came down to a final playoff game with the New York Mets. Stupid Al Leiter!

3. 1962 Reds - 98-64, .605 Winning PCT, 802 RS, 685 RA

Only twice in MLB history has a team won 98 games and finished in 3rd place. In 1908, the Cubs won 99 games topped both the Pirates and the Giants by 1 game to win the National League. In 1962, the Reds won 98 games and actually finished 3.5 games behind the NL Champion Giants, who needed a 3-game playoff to get past the Dodgers. That season saw the Pirates win 93 games and finish 4th, thanks in large part to the expansion New York Mets who managed to go just 40-120. This Reds squad featured an incredible year from Frank Robinson (173 OPS+, 51 doubles, 39 HR, 136 RBI) and very good seasons from Vada Pinson, Wally Post, and Gordy Coleman. They also had a strong pitching staff headed by Bob Purkey (23-5, 2.81 ERA) and Joey Jay (21-14, 3.76 ERA), but the team was unable to follow up the World Series appearance of 1961 with anything better than 3rd place.

4. 1981 Reds - 66-42, .611 Winning PCT, 464 RS, 440 RA

Only one time since World Series play started has a Reds team won at least 61% of their games and not made the playoffs. Only twice since World Series play has a team with the best record in baseball not played a playoff game. In 1981, the Reds finished the season with 2 more wins than any team in the league, but because of the strike that year and the silly way that the playoffs were determined, the Reds found themselves at home during October. The pitching staff that year was anchored by Tom Seaver (14-2, 2.54 ERA) and Mario Soto (12-9, 3.29 ERA). The offense featured starters at every position with OPS+ of 105 or better, except for 3B where Ray Knight posted a 95 OPS+. It is a traveshamockery that they didn't make the playoffs that year, and for that they get to be on this list.

5. 1956 Reds - 91-63, .591 Winning PCT, 775 RS, 658 RA

Led by the highest scoring offense in the National League that featured 3 of the top 7 home run hitters in the NL, the Reds battled with the Dodgers and Braves for NL supremacy until the last days of the season. Besides the excellent rookie campaign by 20-year old Frank Robinson (143 OPS+, 38 HR), this team also had the likes of Ed Bailey (143 OPS+, 28 HR at catcher), Ted Kluszewski (133 OPS+, 35 HR), Gus Bell (121 OPS+, 29 HR), and Wally Post (108 OPS+, 36 HR) setting a franchise record for home runs that stood until 2005. Unfortunately for the offense, the pitching was rather mediocre and the Reds finished in 3rd place, 2 games behind the NL Champion Giants.

There are a couple of other teams that I know could easily be on this list. Who do you think deserves to be here that has been left off? Do I have them ordered properly? Let me know what you think!

What Would You Change About MLB's Financial Structure?

Slyde — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:52:12 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

These three players combined to make $72 million in 2009, just slightly less than entire Reds roster.

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Now that the Yankees have "bought" their way to another championship, I'm seeing some of the traditional hand-wringing and complaining about how to deal with the financial imbalance in the game (mainly on Twitter, America's source for truth!). I'll admit that it's hard to be a fan of a "small market" team and have to watch the big spending teams in the playoffs every year. Oh sure, the baseball gods throw us a bone or two every year with Minnesota or Tampa Bay or Oakland, but there is typically a big market flavor to the playoffs every year.

But I'm not here to whine about that. I understand why it happens, and I also understand that it is not impossible to overcome it, if you are smart. However, lower revenue teams are at a definite disadvantage, if only because they have less of an ability to absorb mistakes. Even though the Yankees signed players like Carl Pavano and Jason Giambi to large contracts that didn't really pan out, they still averaged 97 wins a season from 2001-2008 and made the playoffs in 7 of the 8 seasons. The Reds signed Eric Milton to a similar contract as Pavano and that set the organization back 3 years, at least. My point is that, despite the fact that intelligence can top money in some cases, money still gives some teams a perhaps unfair advantage.

So, what can be done about it?

I'm not a big fan of a hard salary cap because I think the ultimate result of that is that it allows owners to simply pocket more cash. Plus, I still think you'll have owners who spend the minimum amount and take home the maximum amount of profit. I do however think there needs to be a way to encourage players to "spread the wealth" of talent around the league. Unfortunately, I haven't heard an idea for that that sticks with me yet.

Here are some other ideas though that I think might help out the little guys:

1. International Draft - Force all players that want to enter the league to enter through the same process, regardless of where they were born. This would prevent the best international players from going simply to the highest bidder and would also help teams work their way into the overseas markets like Japan.

2. Division realignment - I think teams could become more interesting to free agents who are looking for a shot at the playoffs if the decks weren't so stacked against them. I'm not sure of the exact way that realignment would best work, but if it is based off of market size or done in an EPL type fashion, it could give smaller teams a better shot at overcoming their larger opponents to get to the playoffs.

3. Hard slotting for draft picks - I believe the NBA has a fairly strict range for what a draft pick can make based on where they are drafted. This won't completely take away signability issues, but it will make it easier for teams to know what they are getting into when they find out their draft slot and hopefully allow them to take the best player available instead of the best player they can afford.

4. Rework the luxury tax - I think only 4 teams pay the luxury tax each year, and honestly it doesn't seem to be a deterrent to any of them. On the other end of the spectrum, there are teams that are keep their luxury tax income strictly for profit. Force teams to invest that money back into their organizations or they have to forfeit it. And if they could find a way to discourage the rich from spending so damn much on their teams, that would be nice too. :)

These aren't all great ideas, and I'm not sure any of them are realistic (outside of #1). If you have any ideas that might work better, I'd love to hear them.

2009 World Series: Game 6

Slyde — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 21:46:57 -0000

Next Game

Philadelphia Phillies
@ New York Yankees

Wednesday, Nov 4, 2009, 7:57 PM EST
Yankee Stadium

Pedro Martinez vs Andy Pettitte

Complete Coverage >

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Pedro Martinez	5-1	3.63	1.25	37	8

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Andy Pettitte	14-8	4.16	1.38	148	76

This is the 4th Game 6 in the World Series in the last 10 years. The Yankees were involved in 2 of the previous 3, losing both games - one to send the 2001 Series to a game 7 and one to finish off the 2003 Series for the Marlins. I don't really care who wins the whole thing, but I'd love to see the Phillies win tonight and give us one more game tomorrow night.

AFL Rising Stars Game featuring several Reds prospects on MLB Network Saturday at 8pm

Slyde — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:32:32 -0000

AFL Rising Stars Game featuring several Reds prospects on MLB Network Saturday at 8pm

A little heads up that a few Reds prospects will be featured in a Rising Stars game on Saturday in Arizona and the game will be shown on MLB Network. The past two first round picks - Mike Leake and Yonder Alonso - as well as Chris Heisey and Zack Cozart will be on the NL roster. You can bet that we'll have a game thread up, so keep your eyes out for it on Saturday!

2009 World Series: Game 5

Slyde — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:54:50 -0000

Next Game

New York Yankees
@ Philadelphia Phillies

Monday, Nov 2, 2009, 7:57 PM EST
Citizens Bank Park

A.J. Burnett vs Cliff Lee

Complete Coverage >

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - A.J. Burnett	13-9	4.04	1.40	195	97

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Cliff Lee	7-4	3.39	1.13	74	10

Is tonight the night that all but one of us have been dreading?