SB Nation User Blog: Slyde

Game 78 Thread: Cardinals at Reds

Slyde — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 19:42:31 -0000

Next Game

Friday, Jul 3, 2009, 7:10 PM EDT
Great American Ball Park

Partly cloudy. Game time temperature around 80.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Joel Pineiro	6-9	3.44	1.18	42	12

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Homer Bailey	1-0	8.68	2.04	5	13

Thom Brennaman was saying in yesterday's game that it's hard to overstate the importance of tonight's start for Homer Bailey. I have to say that I agree with him. The Cardinals are tied for first with the Brewers and the Reds are just 2 games back. A series win won't necessarily put the Reds in first, but it is still an absolute must. Winning tonight makes a series win that much easier.

Oh, and the game is sold out.

No pressure, Homer, but the Reds really need you to be on your game tonight. Hopefully you've got that splitter working.

Pitcher Witch Dave Duncan has worked his magic once again with Joel Pineiro. Somehow, Pineiro has managed to put together some good numbers despite striking out just 3.8 batters per 9 IP. The main cause for his success is his league leading walk-rate (1.1 BB/9) and home run rate (0.3 HR/9). So, it's probably not a good idea to sit around waiting for a walk or a 3-run home run. Thankfully, that's not this team's forte.

The good thing going for the Reds as they head into this series is that the Cardinals' offense hasn't been doing much lately either. Over their last 11 games, they've managed just 2.5 R/G. What's truly amazing about that is that Albert Pujols has been batting .375/.545/.875 during those 11 games. The lesson here is that if you are going to pitch to Pujols, you better not let anybody else get on base in front of him.

This is about the 5th HUGE series for the Reds so far this year, and I can't think of a single time that they have stepped up and performed in those situations. This would be an opportunte time to finally step up. It's a holiday weekend and they are going to have some big crowds. Sounds like a great time to energize the fans and the city, doesn't it?

Game 77 Thread: Part 2

Slyde — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:18:03 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Mario really knows how to handle balls with his hands.

Browse more photos »

Reds threatening to miss another opportunity in the 8th.

Game 77 Thread: Diamondbacks at Reds

Slyde — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:04:06 -0000

Next Game

Arizona Diamondbacks
@ Cincinnati Reds

Thursday, Jul 2, 2009, 12:35 PM EDT
Great American Ball Park

Doug Davis vs Aaron Harang

Partly cloudy. Game time temperature around 70.

Complete Coverage >

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Doug Davis	3-8	3.28	1.36	73	45

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Harang	5-8	3.95	1.39	80	21

Doesn't it seem like they just played? I'm not talking about anything like "hey, these games are really close together." I literally mean that it feels like the other game just ended and not a single thing has happened since then. It's probably just my boring ass life though.

Let's see, what do we have today? Oh look, a match up of two pitchers with good ERAs and terrible records. Doug Davis is having a pretty good season and he always seems to handle the Reds well (6-3, 3.46 ERA in his career). The Reds knocked him out early the last time they faced back in April of 2008 after drawing 6 walks in 3.2 innings. And that's the key with Davis. You have to be patient and make him throw strikes, because he will walk quite a few batters if given the chance. He's walked 3 or more batters in 10 of his 16 starts this season. I know many of the Reds hitters like to be aggressive at the plate, but in this instance, patience is definitely a virtue.

Aaron Harang's career numbers against the Diamondbacks are somewhat indicative of his last two seasons with the Reds, except that he's pitched better. In 8 career starts against the Dbacks, Harang has a 1.66 ERA over 54.1 innings pitched, yet somehow is just 2-4 in those games. How he hasn't started cutting people on the team is beyond me.

Willy Taveras is back in the lineup and leading off again today. I'm not sure why he continues to lead off even though Chris Dickerson is also in the lineup, but whatever. I need to stop trying to understand Dusty's brain. It confounds me.

Game 76 Thread: Diamondbacks at Reds

Slyde — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:58:03 -0000

Next Game

Arizona Diamondbacks
@ Cincinnati Reds

Wednesday, Jul 1, 2009, 7:10 PM EDT
Great American Ball Park

Jon Garland vs Johnny Cueto

Partly cloudy,rain. Game time temperature around 70.

Complete Coverage >

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jon Garland	4-7	5.04	1.57	33	37

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Johnny Cueto	7-4	2.86	1.14	70	28

A day after facing perhaps the toughest right-handed pitcher in baseball, Dusty Baker has stacked the Reds lineup with left-handed hitters. Somebody get him a calendar and get him up to speed. In the lineup tonight in place of Willy Taveras is Chris Dickerson, who likes to hit the ball all over the place, and in for Paul Janish is Danny Richar, who will be playing 3B while Jerry Hairston moves to SS. Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining about the lineup, after all lefties are batting .308/.384/.491 against Jon Garland this season. It just seems like this lineup might have been helpful last night too.

The Reds have been scoring some runs for Johnny Cueto lately, putting up 7 or more in 3 of his last 5 starts. Unfortunately, Cueto has managed to give up 5 runs of his own in each of his last 3 starts and the Reds are just 1-2 in those games. I know it's probably just one of those stretches that a pitcher goes through, but it sure would be super awesome if Cueto would switch back into badass mode starting tonight. A nice 7-inning, 1-run start would be fun, I say.

It's been gray in Cincinnati all day today, but still no rain and the radar looks clear, so hopefully this game will go off without a hitch. Time to get that mojo back from the weekend!

Game 75 Thread: Diamondbacks at Reds

Slyde — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:08:54 -0000

Next Game

Arizona Diamondbacks
@ Cincinnati Reds

Tuesday, Jun 30, 2009, 7:10 PM EDT
Great American Ball Park

Dan Haren vs Bronson Arroyo

Partly cloudy,rain. Game time temperature around 70.

Complete Coverage >

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Dan Haren	6-5	2.25	0.81	104	14

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Bronson Arroyo	8-6	5.54	1.46	50	35

Saying that the Reds have their work cut out for them tonight is probably a ginormous understatement. How good is Dan Haren this year?

He has one start this season where he has allowed more than 3 runs.
He has 3 starts this season where he has gone less than 7 innings (none in his last 8 starts), and he went 6 innings in those 3 starts.
That means that 14 of his 15 starts are "Quality Starts."
He's allowed less than 5 hits in 4 of his last 5 starts.
His WHIP this season is a crazy-insane 0.81. 2nd place in the Majors (Zach Greinke) is closer to 29th place than he is to Haren.

If there is a chink in his armor, it's that he's allowed 11 HR in his 15 starts. Thankfully Joey Votto's back or else Jay Bruce might have to hit eleventy home runs by himself tonight.

Luckily the Reds have Bronson Arroyo on the mound tonight. Luckily? Yeah, I've got nothing to back that up, but I'm trying to put a positive spin on a night that is going to be tough from the get-go. The good news about Arroyo's disastrous start last week in Toronto that mirrored his start a year earlier is that Arroyo went on a run after being embarrassed by the Blue Jays in 2008 and posted a 3.42 ERA for the remainder of the season. We can only hope that this past trip to the great white north was equally eye-opening. I have my doubts though, as I have feeling that carpal tunnel as turned Arroyo into a crapal funnel (HA! I just made that up! I kill me!). Okay, I don't think he's that bad, but we can't afford even the slightest screw up tonight from Arroyo. In case you missed it, Haren's a pretty good pitcher.

If you are going down to the game tonight, be sure to cheer loudly for Joey Votto. Let him know that we're glad to have him back!

Graphing Chris Dickerson

Slyde — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:14:13 -0000

Chris Dickerson has had an up-and-down year, or should I say and down-and-up year. He started the season pretty well but then went in a prolonged slump after the first week. On May 11th, he saw his batting line dip to a season low of .197/.316/.288. Fans were demanding that he be benched or even sent back to Louisville. It seemed clear to many that proclamations of Dickerson being nothing more than a 4th outfielder were too generous.

Dusty Baker ended up swapping Dickerson out in place of Laynce Nix in left field. Chris became the main lefty pinch hitter and occasional spot starter in the outfield. Slowly but surely his bat started to come around and since his low point back in May, he has batted .341/.433/.477. When Willy Taveras went down with an injured hamstring, Dickerson got some starts in centerfield and displayed some excellent defense up the middle. Slowly, the tide has shifted in favor of the young left-handed hitting outfielder. Now many of those fans who wanted him demoted likely wouldn't mind if he was starting in centerfield and leading off on a regular basis. It's funny how a long baseball season can do that.

I've been watching Dickerson a little more closely over the last couple of weeks and I've started to notice a pattern in his approach. Obviously he's a very patient hitter - he has the highest walk-rate on the team and only Joey Votto and Ryan Hanigan see more pitches per plate appearance - but he's also more than willing to take what the pitcher gives him. In many ways, he's been the type of hitter that Baker would love his whole team to be. Besides Votto, I don't think there is a hitter on the Reds that uses the whole field as well as Dickerson. I think this is demonstrated in the hit chart below.

As you can see, he doesn't drive too many balls deep to the wall, but what he lacks in power he makes up for by using the entire field. I've labeled the line drives with LD because I thought it was particularly interesting how the majority of Dickerson's line drives are the type that land in front of the outfielder. This is one thing that I've noticed especially while watching him. He uses that gap between the infield and outfield quite a bit. While this is cool and all, I'm a bit concerned that teams will start to play him a little more shallow to cut off those types of hits. Hopefully at that point, he will be able to start driving the ball over their heads and make them pay.

See some more graphs of Dickerson's approach after the jump.

I haven't used the following graph in a while, so let me refresh your memory on it. Each quadrant displays different information about how a hitter handles the strike zone. The first quadrant tells us whether a hitter is more likely to swing at a pitch in that specific spot compared to the rest of the league. The second tells us his rate of contact for a specific location. The third graph breaks down his power zones compared to the rest of the league. The fourth graph tells us whether a hitter is more likely to hit a ground ball or a fly ball from a specific zone. The links under the graph let you switch the view to see how the hitter does on certain splits. I've also added a graph that simply compares the player in each zone to his overall self. This will tell us not how he compares to an average player, but specifically how he himself likes a ball in one zone compared to another.

Splits: All | vs. RHP | vs. LHP
Compared to Self (all pitches)

As you can see, Dickerson likes the ball out over the outside half of the plate. He doesn't make great contact there, but he makes much better contact there than compared to other parts of the zone. His power is typically on pitches up in the zone, where again he makes good contact. He can't do much with pitches down and in - typically the wheelhouse of a left-handed hitter - but he appears to realize that and doesn't swing much at those pitches.

These last sets of graphs are more spray charts, but this time they are broken down by the portion of the plate that the pitch crosses. I think these graphs especially demonstrate how Dickerson is simply taking what the pitcher gives him. Most of the time when he pulls a pitch, it's on the middle portion of the plate. When the pitcher starts working the outside of the plate, Dickerson tends to go the other way with the ball. That's a pretty good approach.

Split: Inside | Middle | Outside

Again, he doesn't put many balls on the inside of the plate into play, but he clearly uses the entire field when the ball is over the rest of the plate. I know Dickerson isn't a young guy for someone only in his 2nd season, but that's a very mature approach at the plate. He's never going to be a huge power guy, but if he can continue to keep a balanced approach and continue to be patient at the plate, he might manage a couple of decent seasons as a regular in the big leagues.

Off Day Open Thread: All Star Representative Edition

Slyde — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 23:04:38 -0000

More photos » by NATHAN DENETTE - AP

Johnny Cueto has had some dominant stretches this season. Is that enough to put him on the All Star team?

Browse more photos »

Sorry about the lack of posts from the normal writers today. Work is kicking my butt right now, and you don't need BubbaFan to tell you that losing a job in this market isn't necessarily the best thing in the world. So, I have a hard time finding time to write at this point, but hopefully things will calm down in the next week or two.

These off days seem frequent of late. I suppose that's not a bad thing when the team is struggling, but it's shame to lose any sense of momentum after taking 2 of 3 from Cleveland and 3 of their last 4 overall.

Tonight's topic for discussion: Assuming Joey Votto won't get selected because of the time he missed, who should be the Reds representative to this year's All Star game in St. Louis? Here are some suggestions, but you can definitely go your own way:

Brandon Phillips:

3rd in WAR for 2B in the NL.
Tied for 1st in RBI by a 2B
3rd in HR by 2B
Defending Gold Glove winner at the position

Johnny Cueto:

Tied for 5th in the NL in ERA and WHIP
4th in the NL in ERA+
9th in the NL in H/9
Leads the team in ERA and winning percentage
2nd on the team in wins and strikeouts

Aaron Harang:

4th in the NL in BB/9
6th in the NL in K/BB
2nd in the NL CG and SHO
15th in the NL in Innings Pitched
Leads team in SO and fewest BB/9
2nd on the team in ERA

Francisco Cordero:

Tied for 5th in the NL in Saves
Converted 18 of 19 save opportunities
6th in the NL in ERA+ (min 30 IP)

Willy Taveras:

Leads team in SB
All Star appearance might boost trade value.

Poll

Assuming they only get one, who will be the Reds representative to the All star game?

Game 74 Thread: Reds at Indians

Slyde — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 13:34:05 -0000

Next Game

Cincinnati Reds
@ Cleveland Indians

Sunday, Jun 28, 2009, 1:05 PM EDT
Progressive Field

Partly cloudy,rain. Game time temperature around 75.

Complete Coverage >

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Micah Owings	4-8	4.87	1.56	46	38

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - David Huff	3-2	5.71	1.46	23	14

The Reds beat up on 24-year old David Huff for 6 runs in 3 innings back in his 2nd career start this past May. Since then, he hasn't pitched too poorly for the Indians, going 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA in 6 starts. He's pitched into the 8th in 2 of his last 3 starts, but otherwise, he's had trouble going deep into games so far. The Reds need to take advantage of this and try to get him out of the game early.

In a scheduling oddity, this will be the 6th left-hander the Reds have faced in their last 8 games.

Micah Owings has to pitch again without being able to utilize his best asset. Wasting Owings in American League games make him just another mediocre pitcher. He didn't look too good in his last start against the Blue Jays, but prior to that he had bee much more successful for a few starts. Makes me wonder if he doesn't like to pitch when he can't bat. (I know, it's probably more just a case of him being a mediocre pitcher, but sportswriters needlessly theorize all of the time, so why can't I?)

A win today with give the Reds a series win and split the road trip for the AND get them back to .500 on the season. As bad as they looked in Toronto, a road trip split wouldn't be too shabby.

Game 73 Thread: Reds at Indians

Slyde — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 20:24:23 -0000

Next Game

Cincinnati Reds
@ Cleveland Indians

Saturday, Jun 27, 2009, 7:05 PM EDT
Progressive Field

Homer Bailey vs Tomo Ohka

Partly cloudy. Game time temperature around 80.

Complete Coverage >

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Homer Bailey	0-0	12.46	2.08	3	6

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Tomo Ohka	0-1	4.70	1.30	9	5

We finally get to see that fancy new splitter that we've been hearing about from Homer. Could this finally be the chance for him to live up to the hype? I'm not really that optimistic. Personally, I thought he should have to pitch in the minors for another couple of months before given another shot at the Majors. Sure, he's been dominating of late, but it's not like he hasn't had stretches of dominance in the minors before. He needed to be consistently dominant in the AAA before I'd have given him another shot in the big leagues. Hopefully he'll make me shut up tonight though.

In a season where the Reds are adding more and more pitchers to the Tomo Ohka All Stars roster, it would be pleasantly ironic if they were to beat up on the real Tomo Ohka tonight. He is 5-2 with a 3.34 ERA against the Reds in his career, compared to a 50-64 record with a 4.14 career ERA. His ERA isn't much different, but he sure seems to know how to beat the Reds more than other teams.

Despite my lack of endorsement of his start, I am looking forward to seeing Bailey pitch tonight. This team could some positive mojo, since Joey Votto's return hasn't single-handedly turned them into champions. A good start tonight by Bailey as well as the possible return of Edwin Encarnacion next week could start to stir things up for the team. Any movements in a positive direction would be a breath of fresh air for a team that has been trapped in a pit of suck over the last few weeks.

Game 72 Thread: Reds at Indians

Slyde — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 21:01:56 -0000

Next Game

Cincinnati Reds
@ Cleveland Indians

Friday, Jun 26, 2009, 7:05 PM EDT
Progressive Field

Aaron Harang vs Jeremy Sowers

Clear. Game time temperature around 80.

Complete Coverage >

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Harang	5-7	3.66	1.34	77	20

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jeremy Sowers	1-5	5.95	1.63	18	21

It's a something's-got-to-give game. Former Reds draft pick Jeremy Sowers has made 4 starts against the Reds and surrendered 8.55 runs per 9 IP. Current Reds ace Aaron Harang has received just 3.57 R/G of run support (note: I don't count the game where he only pitched 2 innings because of a rain delay and then the Reds scored 7 runs). Both of these facts can't hold to their pattern tonight. What is stronger, the irresistible force or the unsupportable ace?

For being a pitcher who was drafted in the first round twice, Sowers has not been very good in the big leagues. Over 4 partial seasons in the Majors, Sowers is just 13-24 with a 5.24 ERA and 140 strikeouts compared to 101 walks in 316 IP. And this season, he's actually walked more batters than he's struck out. That's not a recipe for success. Sometimes I'm thankful that he didn't sign in 2001.

I think it's safe to say at this point that Harang is not feeling any ill-effects of his questionable return after a 2-hour rain delay on May 25th. Oh sure, he stunk on May 30th, but since then, he's gone 24.2 innings and allowed just 6 earned runs (2.19 ERA). In fact, he's given up more than 3 runs in just 4 starts this year. I'd say that's keeping the team in the ballgame. Of course, the Reds are just 7-8 in his starts, so he must not be a very good pitcher after all.

As much crap as we've given Willy Taveras lately - crap he's truly deserved - if he can put a string of games together like he had last night, his recent abysmal play will quickly become a distant memory. Unlike Corey Patterson last year, who I wanted out of the lineup so that Jay Bruce could play, I don't want Taveras to fail. This is mainly because I don't think there is any chance the Reds aren't going to keep Taveras around for 2010, and if that's the case, then I'd much rather he were successful than sucking, even if he's on the bench. So, I guess what I'm trying to say is, go Willy! When you do well, the Reds have a better chance of winning. And when you fail, well, the eggs will go back up on the sidebar.