Hey Silver Seven!

So yesterday I had the pleasure of watching the Niagara Ice Dogs route the Oshawa Generals, taking an early lead and going on to win 7 - 3, taking the East semi-final 4 - 1.  Next they play the Mississauga Melynk's Majors in the East final!

While this in itself was an exciting and goal filled game (Oh, and I also learned that Ice Dogs fans hate Lucas Lessio, more on that later)  The best part was getting to see some possible future Sens in action, namely Ryan Strome, Dougie Hamilton and Nicklas Jensen.  I'll do a bit of analysis on them here, but first I have to state that I am now absolutely dumbfounded that Darren Archibald, the Ice Dogs leading playoff goal scorer, was passed over in two drafts, and only just recently got a pro contract, from the Vancouver Canucks.  The kid is an absolute beast and has shown he's clutch in the playoffs.  But I digress. after the jump I'll give a little blurb on each player, followed by their strengths and weaknesses as I saw them.  And remember, I'm no scout, just a fan. So, on to the analysis!

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With the way the Sens have been playing this season (thanks for the 7-1 beatdown the other night, btw), it was only a matter of time before the rumours of a coaching change began to swirl.  Now, Kirk Muller's name has popped up as a possible candidate for next season.  I figured the best place place to learn about him would be to go straight to his team's fans.  What do you think of his coaching abilities? is he ready to become a head coach? Thanks in advance for any insight you can provide!

      I won't lie, I'm loving all this rebuild talk.   Ottawa's Cup window has been closed for a while, so talk of rebuilding the franchise in the model of some of the NHL's younger teams is exciting and filled with promise.  Why lament over the season's struggles when you can turn to the future and salivate over the prospect of a dynasty? (Ah, the talk of a losing franchise's fan) Here is my five year plan, laid out year by year.

2010 - 2011

Trade deadline day

-Chris Phillips and Ottawa's 2011 3rd are traded to Colorado for Tyson Barrie and Colorado's 2011 2nd

-Alex Kovalev is traded to St. Louis for Jay McClement and St. Louis' 2011 2nd

-Brian Elliot, Jarkko Ruutu and Colorado's 2011 2nd are traded to Los Angeles for Jonathan Bernier  

 

Draft Day

-Ottawa finishes in 28th, drafts Gabriel Landeskog.

-Uses two 2nd round picks to draft solid offensive prospects

 

Off Season

- Zack Smith is resigned to a 3 yr / $2.7 million contract

-Chris Campoli is resigned to a 3 yr / $3.6 million contract

-Ryan Shannon is resigned to 1 yr / $800,000 contract

-Ottawa trades Brian Lee, Mike Hoffmann, a 2nd round pick and a 3rd for Patrice Bergeron

-Pascal Leclaire walks as a UFA

-Bobby Butler is resigned to a 2 yr / 2 way / $1.8 million contract

-Mike Brodeur is resigned to a 2 yr / 2 way / $1.3 million contract

-Ty Conklin is signed to a 2 yr / $2 million dollar contract

 

2011 - 2012

2011 - 2012 Roster

Regin  -  Spezza  -  Alfredsson

Foligno  - Bergeron  -  Butler  

McClement - Fisher  -  Neil

Winchester - Kelly - Smith

      Gonchar  -  Karlsson

      Campoli  -  Carkner

       Cowen   -   Kuba

                Bernier

               Conklin

Trade deadline day

-Filip Kuba is traded for a 2nd round pick

-Chris Kelly is traded for a 2nd round pick 

 

Draft Day

-Ottawa finishes 20th, moves up using 1st and 2nd rounders to draft a solid forward prospect (Frk or Forsberg?)

 

Off Season

-Nick Foligno is resigned to a 3 yr / $4.0 million contract

-Peter Regin is resigned to a 4 yr / $6.0 million dollar contract

-Patrick Sharp is signed to a 4 yr / $20 million contract

-Jesse Winchester is resigned to a 3 yr / $3 million contract

-Erik Karlsson is resigned to a 6 yr / $24 million contract

-Matt Carkner is resigned to a 2 yr / $1.8 million contract

 

 

2012 - 2013

2012 - 2013 Roster

Michalek - Spezza - Sharp

Foligno  -  Bergeron - Alfredsson

Winchester - Fisher - Neil

O'Brien -  Smith - Butler

   Gonchar - Karlsson

   Cowen - Rundblad

   Campoli - Carkner

           Bernier

           Conklin

 

Trade deadline day

-Mike Fisher is traded for a 2nd round pick and a prospect

 

Draft Day

-Ottawa finishes in 8th (in conference), drafts another forward in the 1st round

 

Offseason

-Alfredsson is resigned to a 1 yr / $800,000 contract

-Bernier is resigned to a 2 yr / $7 million contract

-Butler is resigned to a 2 yr / $2 million contract

 

2013 - 2014

2013 - 2014 roster

  Michalek - Spezza - Sharp

 Regin - Bergeron - Landeskog 

 Foligno  -  Smith  -  Winchester

  Butler - O'Brien  - Alfredsson

          Cowen - Karlsson

        Wiercioch - Rundblad

          Campoli - Carkner

                     Bernier

                     Lehner

 

Deadline day

-Ottawa trades Campoli for a 2nd round pick

 

Draft Day

-Focus is on forwards, goaltenders 

 

Off Season

-Bergeron is resigned to a 4 year / $22 million contract

-Carkner is resigned to a 2 yr / $1.8 million contract

-Michalek is resigned to a 2 yr / $6 million contract 

 

2014 - 2015

2014 - 2015 Roster

Landeskog - Spezza - Sharp

Regin - Bergeron - Michalek

Foligno - Smith - Winchester

Frk - O'Brien - Butler

Cowen - Rundblad

Wiercioch - Karlsson

Gryba - Carkner

Lehner / Bernier

 

And there you have it! My plan for a five year rebuild.  Solid centres, strong D and a good blend of young and veteran talent. Not only that, but by year five there's still plenty of money to play with, meaning that there's room to resign players in the future, or if my contract signings are too low, there's room to increase the salaries and have it still work.  The next step from here would be to continue to draft and develop prospects, as well as work on improving on the second line wingers. However, if a player like RW Martin Frk was drafted and developed well, then the second problem would take care of itself.

What do you think? is this team anywhere close to where the Sens should be in five years? What would you change? What dumb mistakes did I make?  I'd actually really like to put together the Senators dream roster based on who Silver Seven readers would like to see on the team, so let me know!

        There's no doubt that this season's version of the Ottawa Senators has had its share of struggles.  Injury, laziness and odd coaching decisions, combined with an overall lack of cohesiveness, have all taken their toll on the Sens chances of making it to the post season.  We're virtually at the half-way point of the season and the playoffs sit painfully far in the distance.  Add to this that sportsclubstats.com states that we now have a 0.66% chance of making it to the post season and I think its safe to say there is a strong possibility that the Ottawa Senators will be sellers come deadline day.  The question then becomes, however, who do the Sens ship out of town?  All of the usual names continue to pop up (Kovalev, Kuba, etc) but who should really go if Bryan Murray has the chance to move them? I'll list some players who may or could be moved below, along with some deals involving similar players from the last three years.

 

Jarkko Ruutu - A solid third line pest who would add grit to any playoff team.  Has a relatively cap-friendly salary.  
Similar deal: (2009) Dan Carcillo for Upshall and a 2nd round pick.  Note: Carcillo is much younger than Ruutu.

Chris Kelly - Another third liner who has some of the best hockey smarts in the game, but a distinct lack of finish.  
Similar deal: (2009) Samuel Pahlsson, Logan Stephenson and a 2009 cond. draft pick for Wisniewski and Kontiola.  Note: possible source of a couple young players?

Matt Carkner - A solid third pair defenceman that could add some grit.
Similar deal: (2010) Andrew Alberts for a 3rd round pick

Nick Foligno - A young, hard working player with potential and a friendly cap hit.
Similar deal: (2010) Clarke MacArthur for 3rd round pick and 4th round pick.

Alex Kovalev - A cap hit that would make any team think twice, but an undeniable ability to finish come playoff time.
Similar deal: (2009) Justin Williams for Patrick O'Sullivan and a 2nd round pick. Note: William's cap hit is $3.5 mil

Filip Kuba - Some offensive ability, but hasn't played to his potential. Has a NTC.
Similar Deal: (2008) Marc-Andre Bergeron for a 3rd round pick.

Jason Spezza - Moving him would leave us without a #1 centre, and his huge contract could make him difficult to move besides.
Similar deal: (2008) Brad Richards and Johan Holmqvist for Jussi Jokinen, Jeff Halpern, Mike Smith and a 4th round pick.

Chris Phillips - A proven defender nearing the end of his career.
Similar Deal: (2008) Hal Gill for 2nd and 5th round picks.

Brian Lee - Enough said
Similar Deal: Does it matter?

I've included for the most part deals for picks, since, lets face it, it's time for at least a partial rebuild.  There are other players who could be moved, as well as some prospects, but I'm tired of typing so I'll leave the rest up to you.  Who else could be moved? what could we get in return? Am I way out in left field as far as my "similar deals"? Lets hear your ideas!

 

  

Poll

Which player is most likely to be gone on deadline day?

36%

Jarkko Ruutu

31 votes

5%

Chris Kelly

5 votes

47%

Alex Kovalev

41 votes

10%

Other

9 votes

86 votes | Poll has closed