Rumors have been circulating for months now about the Kings interest in a defensive minded anchor at the 5 position. Two of the main rumors have been 1) Dalembert for Kenny Thomas and the other Emeka Okafor for Kenny Thomas. However, with the latest rumor for Sam Amick in the Sacramento Bee including one of  the Charlotte Bobcats bigs(Chandler, Mohammed, Diop, Ajinca) being available for either JT(YEAH RIGHT - even though he's been sucking of late) or the expiring deal of Kenny F. Thomas. 

I've been thinking about this for some time and view both Dalembert and Chandler as very similar impact(DEFENSE and FINANCES) for the Kings, but yet very DIFFERENT players on the court for providing that same role. 

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DISCLAIMER: I'm using current CBA rules that I'm aware of to do this. I understand that the CBA could change and it might even be drastic, but I'm not betting on it. I think the leagues wields in the # of years, and the Union gets some sort of concession to that in the form of a raised MLE or perhaps tiered MLE system to allow multiple MLE type signings at different rates. Something like that. "Like anyone could even know that, Napolean". 

So we heard about this rumor a couple of years ago. When I first heard of it I went through a series of thoughts...first it was, NO BRAINER get it done. Second, Hey wait, what about 2010 cap space, Third, How are we gonna afford that contract going forward and fourth, aw screw two and three, GET 'ER done. And I'm still at thought #4 at this moment. However, I've been digging deeper into the issue and thinking, what ARE the financial ramifications at this point. How will it affect our cap, finances and ability to draft, and re-sign our current crop of rookies. Well, to start out I'd like to give you a snap shot of the next 5 years salaries.

Player 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 Kevin Martin $9,680,170 $10,600,005 $11,519,840 $12,439,675 N/A N/A Emeka Okafor $10,797,500 $11,795,000 $12,792,500 $13,790,000 $14,787,500 N/A Andres Nocioni $7,500,000 $6,850,000 $6,650,000 $7,500,000 N/A N/A Beno Udrih $6,031,800 $6,478,600 $6,925,400 $7,372,200 N/A N/A Francisco Garcia $5,800,000 $5,500,000 $5,800,000 $6,100,000 $6,400,000 N/A Tyreke Evans $3,610,080 $3,880,920 $4,151,640 $5,251,825 $6,927,157 N/A Spencer Hawes $2,332,800 $2,974,320 $4,051,024 N/A N/A N/A Jason Thompson $2,035,920 $2,178,000 $3,001,284 $4,129,767 N/A N/A Mikki Moore * $2,000,000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Sergio Rodriguez $1,576,696 $2,338,240 N/A N/A N/A N/A Omri Casspi $1,167,000 $1,254,480 $1,341,960 $2,277,306 $3,313,480 N/A Donte Greene $870,000 $930,700 $1,679,914 $2,503,071 N/A N/A Sean May Not $825,497 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Ime Udoka $825,497 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Jon Brockman $457,588 $932,195 N/A N/A N/A N/A Total salaries: $55,510,548 $55,712,420 $53,862,538 $54,731,006 $31, 438,137 $0 Total w/o options $55,510,548 $52,442,025 $43,687,740 $32,329675 $14,797,500

$0

So I've taken the liberty of adjusting out payroll with Thomas' contract exiting, and Okafor's contract entering. I'd like to break down the year by year effects of having Okafor's contract on the books, rather than Thomas. I'll look at adding rookie scale deals each year, as well as rookie options on players we plan to keep. Also, I'll try to project what players will earn with extensions and also maintain a min. 13 man roster as well. 

2009/2010:

This year is irrelevant in this evaluation, we're still under the cap and have a full complement of players. FINANCIAL OUTLOOK - GOOD.

2010/2011: I would imagine keeping Brockman and Rodriguz on their rather cheap deals would be a priority as each are RFA's and would have the QO in play. We could match any other offer out there, and I highly doubt anyone offers them more than the QO. We would have 12 players under contract, + need to add the guaranteed salary of our 1st round pick(we're currently in the 8th-10th seeds, so I'll use the #8 overall pick to use as a conservative, realistic cap hold for our rookie contract as I don't see us getting worse with Okafor, but rather better, with probably a lesser contract. Rookie contract scale would be: 10/11 - 2,069,400. So the total salary would definitely be below the LTT and be right around the projected Salary cap figure range of 52-56 million. FINANCIAL OUTLOOK - GOOD

2011/2012:

2010 rookie salary  for 2011/12 =  2,224,600 So 

This is the year where things get slightly hairier, as Spencer Hawes is an RFA this year. It appears all the rookie deals are deals on players we'd want to keep, other than Spencer who's QO is roughly some 4 odd million. Obviously, it would be prudent to extend the QO, but then at what cost do we re-sign Spence? With Okafor on board, and JT/Greene needing extensions the next year, and Evans/Casspi the year after, this is the pivotal to decide, what do we do with who. We have just under 56 million commited to 10 players. Add a 1st round pick, probably around 1-2 million a year and that's 57-58 million for 11 players. A cheap 2nd round pick or a vet min salary could help bring the total roster to 12 or just re-signing Brockman to a modest contract and then we have to decide do we extend Spencer? Or do we let him go. My money is on extending Spencer. He's just too talented at such a young age to let go, especially when you consider the position he plays, and the fact that bigs ALWAYS take additional time to develop. Of course, we'll have another 1.5 years to evaluate Spencers worth. But how much would you throw at him considering age, postion, talent, etc. I'd guess he finds him self at around 9 million a year annually for 6 years on average. To pull that off within the current CBA he's need to be getting roughly 7.5 million give or take. That'd put an estimated total salary at 65-66 million dollar range, which might put us up right next to the LTT. This might be a nice year to have Nocioni's contract off the books in all honesty, just for the sake of having some financial Breathing room. FINANCIAL OUTLOOK - GOOD, but TIGHT.

2012/2013:

This is the year that Andres Nocioni deal comes off the books, which is definitely helpful. As now we need to extend one or both of Thompson and Greene. In my mind, Thompson is an obvious no brainer to re-sign. However, Greene, while I like him, is definitely a question mark. Gauging by today's evaluation of his play, IMO, I think we will end up, WANTING to resign Greene. 

Adding up the salaries, we'll have an additional 13 million added to our payroll between the Rookie 2010, Rookie 2011 and Rookie 2012 along with 8-8.5 million going to Hawes. Our salary BEFORE extending Thompson/Greene will be around 67 million. Add in Thompson's new Salary alone(estimating a similar contract to what Spencer gets -- 6 years @ 50-55 million) and we're looking at being Lux Tax payers this year. Extedning Greene might be something similar to what Garcia got, 6 years 30-35 million range. It appears to me that one or both of Udrih and/or Garcia needs to be moved for a shorter contract to be able to afford Okafor this year considering the obligatory additions and contracts of younger players. We'd have roughly 12(13) players tied up to 75(76) million give or take. This might be the ONE year we're lux tax payers as both Cisco and Beno are potentially off the books next year.

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK - POOR

2013/2014: 

Martin's off the books at a savings of 12.5 million dollars. He'll be 30 years old going into the off-season. If still on the roster by then, I think he would definitely consider re-signing at a reduced rate. Something like 4 or 5 years at just above the MLE(like 7-8 million a year, maybe even a declining at that point. He'll still be a VERY useful player, but his best days will be coming to end very soon from that point on. He could be the wiry veteran presence along with Emeka to keep our team competing. 

Beno's off the books, and Cisco has a team option that we can decline. This is the year that we need to extend both Casspi and Evans though. Evans, gauging by today, would require a max contract(9 million BYC) and Casspi would probably need a good sized contract(probably something with a BYC around 7 million) as well. You also have rookie 2010, 2011, 2012 and now rookie 2013 on board, which would add an addtional 6-7 million in salary. That's 12 players on our roster(4 guaranteed rookie contracts  Okafor, Thompson, Hawes, Casspi, Evans, Greene, Brockman and the re-signing of Martin(4 years 30 million with the base year being around 8 million) @ around 70 million(probably right up against the tax burden). 

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK: OKAY, but TIGHT.

At which point, Okafor expires and gives the Kings the breathing room to continue competing(if they re-sign him at a reduced rate or let him go altogether).

So forecasting the future, I see the Kings realistically being a tax paying team in the penultimate year of Okafor's deal, making no other trades to free up future salary. I'm much more in favor of adding an Okafor, than say, a Bosh or Amare or Boozer for these reasons).

1) Okafor would be cheaper IMO.

2) Okafor wouldn't require giving up much other than future capspace, thus keeping most, all of our current assets.

3) Okafor would be signed for at least 1 less year, maybe even 2 less years than either Bosh, Amare or Boozer(as they'd likely require a SnT, requiring an extra year along with more financial commitment, along with some type of value exiting to their former teams).

4) And most importantly Okafor fills a gaping void on the Kings roster that consists of defensive rebounding and protecting the paint. We don't need another ball dominant player, and I think Okafor is an Ideal fit for the way this current Kings team is constructed. 

So in short, I think we should deal for Okafor and look to move one or both of Beno and.or Garcia to abstain from being a taxpaying team. 

This article is proof that it's ALWAYS easier to spend other people's money.

I've been thinking about this topic for some time and feel the necessity to open this up for discussion. Today's NBA has EVOLVED dramatically from just a short decade ago. Today's NBA is downright dominated by ultra-quick point guards that can get to the rim at will. Think about it. Tony Parker, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, DJ Augustin, Raymond Felton, Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings, Jonny Flynn, Rajon Rondo, Devin Harris, Aaron Brooks, Louis Williams, Mo Williams, Ty Lawson, TJ Ford, Mike Conley, Jameer Nelson, Gilbert Arenas are all PG's having a varying amount of success in the league today. I attribute this DIRECTLY to the no-hand check rule. PG play has  burst onto the scene as one, if not the #1, attack from offense. 

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The roster is looking good, there is talent at every position and 3-4 major starts on the roster. However, I see a GLARING hole on the bench. It's that hyrbrid 3-4 guy that can guard the mobile/perimeter forwards in the league. Sure Pierce can cover one, for stretches, but I really feel that the roster is lacking that perimeter defender who can guard the hybrid forwards that teams seem to be going towards. I think Orlando's Lewis/Hedo were match-up nightmares last year and I can see teams attempting the same thing again this year.

With that said....

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Okay, so go on ANY blog, and I mean ANY blog about the Kings and Tyreke and you'll see a strong sentiment from non-Kings fans that Tyreke Evans is NOT a PG. He can't shoot, he's not a playmaker, he can't distribute. Great player, but he's a '2-guard', cuz he can't shoot worth a lick.

Guess what. I don't buy it. 

I look at Tyreke Evans, and see this. A guard. A guard who is bigger, stronger, faster and longer than almost all other guards that he'll ever match up against. Why is this advantageous? Because nearly EVERY single star player in the league has one thing in common. They physically outmatch their competition at their respective positions.

Chris Paul is faster and quicker than almost all PG's.

He who can not be named - Ah screw it, I'm just not going here for SG's, I just can't. I have standards you know.

LeBron James is a FREAK of nature at ANY position, especially SF

Tim Duncan is taller and stronger than most PF's

Dwight Howard is a Freak of a Center

So there you have it. The top 5 plays in the NBA at their respective positions, today.

So let's turn back to Tyreke now. His game right now is a bit raw, but he FLOURISHES when he dominates the ball and finishes AT THE BASKET. He has the ball-handling skills and physical tools to break down his opponents, get to the basket and FINISH.

Now let's examine how this 'type of game' FITS with the Kings current personnel that Tyreke will spend the BULK of his minutes with. I want to focus on the offensive side of the ball and see how things fit there. 

Kevin Martin may be one of the, if not currently, the best off-the-ball scorer in the league. He doesn't need the ball in his hands to be make himself a threat to score. He's a phenemonal SHOOTER with a TS% over 60% the past 3 years. He'll cut and move without the ball into a passing lane , which in turn will make the job of Tyreke breaking down the defense and having an outlet if help defense stops his drive. Having someone like Martin is just totally invaluable to Tyreke's game.  In fact, I think Martin may be a perfect complement to Tyreke. He's the yin to Tyreke's yang.

Offensively, Nocioni is a decent rebounder, but he's a VERY good 3 point shooter. He shoots the 3 and well over 40% which will help spread the defense for Tyreke to penetrate. If the defense collapses OFF of Noc, then Tyreke has another valve to dump the ball out to for an open three. However, Nocioni is a TERRIBLE ball-handler. Martin's  averageness and Nocioni's poor ball-handling skills might lead team to put on-ball pressure to our guards, which in turn has the potential to cause a high number of turnovers. If I were an opposing team's defensive guru, this is EXACTLY what I would do against the Kings. However, Francisco Garcia does a LOT of the same things Nocioni does well, but also brings the ability to initiate the offense, handle the ball and help be an additional playmaker. I think Garcia may be the better fit between the two, but both players will log big minutes when Tyreke is on the floor. I would just roll with Garcia in tandem with 'Reke, more.

Now, for Jason Thompson, the guy has a silky smooth 15-18 foot jumper, which will help draw out opposing team's big men AWAY from the basket. Thus, opening up driving lanes for TYreke to finish at the basket . If a big man cheats off of Thompson, I believe Tyreke is gifted enough to find JT open who in turn is likely to knock down that elbow line 18 footer rather consistently. If the big man does NOT cheat off of JT and Evans is allowed to drive and put up an attempt, I believe that Shock is an apt enough offensive rebounder to garner around 2-3 offensive boards a night from Tyreke ability to collapse the defense. So in theory, JT might be the absolute PERFECT complimentary PF to Tyreke Evans' as we currently know him.

Mr. Hawesome. Ziller had a great write-up today on Spencer's ability to really STRETCH the D. Having both JT and HAwes in your frontcourt, at least offensively speaking, can basically invert a team's defense scheme OR force them to play zone(even better when you consider that Martin, Nocioni, Hawes all have 3 point range and JT has the ability to hit the mid-range and long 2's consistently from the field). By doing this, 'Reke may have to only beat ONE defender to get to the rim, OR else the other 4 players will get some open looks from distance. I like our chances if Martin, Hawes(from the short corner), Noc/Garcia get open looks....they've all proven to be dependable deep ball shooters. 

At Memphis, Calipari developed an offense that suited Tyreke's STRENGTH. Scoring AT THE BASKET. Tyreke very well may be a sub-standard shooter for a guard from distance, however, he's an absolute BEAST when he gets to the rim. The offense that Calipari developed was a "drive and kick" styled offense. I see no reason why some type of variant couldn't be used by Westphal to accentuate this teams strengths(SHOOTERS in the starting line-up, with a ball dominating guard who has the ability to get to the rim) and minimize their main fundamental weaknesses as a unit(ball control and strength - only Tyreke is physically dominant over the opponent on most nights).

To conclude, I'd think that not only did the Kings perhaps draft the best player on the board, but rather they drafted a player who very well may be the BEST fit offensively for our current crop of players on the roster.

I didn't talk much about defense, but Tyreke brings a good fit there along with some added versatility to help our Kings improve over the coming years. 

Great pick Geoff! I'm excited for the season!

This is my first "Fan Post" here, so be gentle. 

Everyone knows that the most conventional and historically best way to build a championship contender is to build around a bonafide SUPERSTAR. One of those top 10-15 best players in the entire league.

My question is this: Can the Kings do this with any one of our core group of young players. I include our core group of young players as:
1) Tyreke Evans
2) Spencer Hawes
3) Jason Thompson
4) Donte Greene
5) Omri Casspi

Let's get started in evaluating the potential that each one of these players has and see if any of them have "SUPERSTAR" potential, the bona fide kind. 

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