The Playoff Rotation Conundrum

Smokin Turkeys — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 07:30:12 -0000

With the recent post about Schilling and Johnson in 2001, and the news that Smoltz and Lohse were going to be available out of the pen in games 1 and 2 of the NLDS, I started thing about playoff scenarios and what they would mean to our rotation. I decided to go through each NLDS scenario that involved a Cardinal victory( this is not GOB tempting, simply the fact that or rotation does not matter if we are eliminated!). Obviously there are three acceptable outcomes for the Cards to move on (Cards in 3, Cards in 4, Cards in 5). So I used the MLB playoff schedule to identify what these scenarios COULD mean for our Cards. I will preface this with the fact that too many scenarios can play out in the NLCS for me to count up, so I only used the possibilities from the NLDS then map out what the rest of the games could lead to assuming we need 7 games in each series.

CARDS IN 3

If we sweep the NLDS then there is no dilemma. Carpenter, Wainwright, and Pineiro pitch games one two and three and we move on.

That sets up the NLCS with:

Carpenter in game 1 on FULL rest.

Wainwright in game 2 FULL rest.

Pineiro in game 3 FULL rest.

Carpenter in game 4 SHORT rest.

Wainwright in game 5 FULL rest.

Pineiro in game 6 FULL rest.

Carpenter in game 7 FULL rest.

As you can see, by bringing Carpenter back on short rest in game 4, we can get 5 games pitched by Wainwright and Carpenter with only one game of short rest and the others all on full rest. The other great thing about this is what it would set up for the World Series:

Wainwright game 1 EXTRA rest.

Carpenter game 2 FULL rest.

Pineiro game 3 EXTRA rest.

This is the part that gets tricky. We would be in a situation where our 4th starter had not pitched in a month. That is why I say ride the horses.

Wainwright game 4 SHORT rest.

Carpenter game 5 SHORT rest.

Pineiro game 6 SHORT rest.

Wainwright game 7 SHORT rest. (With Carp available in relief)

In this scenario, we only throw Carpenter and Wainwright on short rest once each before the last few games of the World Series.

Possible NLDS scenario 2: Cards in 4

Carpenter game 1 FULL rest.

Wainwright game 2 FULL rest.

Pineiro game 3 FULL rest.

Carpenter game 4 SHORT rest. (Carp on short rest here because Wainwright would be able to pitch game 5 of FULL rest, so if you hold Carp until game 5 you have Wainwright also on FULL rest and unable to pitch.)

This scenario also works well because even with Carpenter going on short rest, he can still make it back for game 2 of the NLCS on FULL rest. You will also notice that this scenario is the same NLCS scenario as the one if the Cards sweep, only Wainwright is making 3 starts and Carpenter 2.

NLCS:

Wainwright in game 1 on FULL rest.

Carpenter in game 2 FULL rest.

Pineiro in game 3 FULL rest.

Wainwright in game 4 SHORT rest.

Carpenter in game 5 FULL rest.

Pineiro in game 6 FULL rest.

Wainwright in game 7 FULL rest.

Hey what do you know? In this scenario Wainwright can still make it back for game 2 of the World Series. You'll also notice that this scenario is the same as the one if the Cards sweep the NLDS, with Wainwright and Carpenter again switched.

Carpenter game 1 EXTRA rest.

Wainwright game 2 FULL rest.

Pineiro game 3 EXTRA rest.

Carpenter game 4 SHORT rest.

Wainwright game 5 SHORT rest.

Pineiro game 6 SHORT rest.

Carpenter game 7 SHORT rest. (With Waino available in relief)

Basically this scenario plays out the exact same as the first, with the roles of Wainwright and Carpenter reversed.

Possible NLDS scenario 3: Cards in 5

Carpenter game 1 FULL rest.

Wainwright game 2 FULL rest.

Pineiro game 3 FULL rest.

Carpenter game 4 SHORT rest.

Wainwright game 5 FULL rest.

Like I said earlier, we pitch Carpenter on 3 days rest here to take advantage of the fact Wainwright is on regular rest for game 5. That leaves us with an NLCS that looks like this:

Pineiro game 1 FULL rest

Carpenter game 2 FULL rest

Wainwright game 3 FULL rest.

Pineiro game 4 SHORT rest.

Carpenter game 5 FULL rest.

Wainwright game 6 FULL rest.

Pineiro game 7 FULL rest.

Again, you will see that this leads to a world series rotation that is the same as the rotation for the scenario of the Cards winning in 4.

Carpenter game 1 FULL rest.

Wainwright game 2 FULL rest.

Pineiro game 3 FULL rest.

Carpenter game 4 SHORT rest.

Wainwright game 5 SHORT rest.

Pineiro game 6 SHORT rest.

Carpenter game 7 SHORT rest. (With Waino available in relief)

The most important thing to take away from this is that whoever pitches game one of the NLCS can pitch 3 times while only going on short rest in one of them(game 4). Also, before the mad dash in the last 4 games of the World Series, only 2 pitchers pitch on short rest, and do so only once each. The off day's between game 4 and 5 and game 5 and 6 in the NLCS are a huge help for a team considering a 3 man rotation. I am not a huge fan of the short rest route normally. However, we know the reason we are in the playoffs, and we know what gives us the best chance to win the World Series.

What do you think? Come up with your own playoff scenarios to put together the rotation with. If someone wants to go through the NLCS possibilities be my guest, just thinking about it gives me a headache. The playoffs ARE unpredictable, but I think that this is a good place to start in looking at possible rotation options down the stretch.

Poll

What do you think?

Ride the horses until they break!

31 votes

We have to stay away from 3 days rest until we reach must win situations.

43 votes

74 votes | Poll has closed

SB Nation User Blog: Smokin Turkeys

The Playoff Rotation Conundrum

What do you think?

Ride the horses until they break!

We have to stay away from 3 days rest until we reach must win situations.