SB Nation User Blog: Smoltz's Beard

Campillo.

Smoltz's Beard — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 15:47:54 -0000

I started this in the fanpost below me, but decided this guy deserves his own. I just wanted to hear what everyone else thinks of this guy.

He's coming up on his career high innings pitched mark (149.1 last year in the minors), but I wonder how many innings he put on his arm in the Mexican league? I have not been able to find those stats online.

Looking first at his work as a bullpen arm, I think it's safe to say that is where he started to become known to alot of us. Bigjoe even coined the term "The Revelation" because of his incredible line coming out of the 'pen:

21.2 IP, 16 H, 3 ER, 0 HR, 5 BB, 17 K, 1.25 ERA

That's some filthy stuff. But lately he's been acting as our #2 starter and doing a damn good job.

86.1 IP, 76 H, 28 ER, 9 HR, 16 BB, 59 K, 2.92 ERA

What I notice first is the fact that he's walking less than 2 batters per 9 innings (1.67 to be exact). Any time you can limit your walks like that you're taking the first step to becoming a successful big league pitcher. The H/9 seem high (about 7.95) and I cannot imagine they will get any lower once the league has a readily available supply of tape on him. He's averaging over 6 K's per 9 innings, which is also pretty damn good (his changeup is so nice). He's averaging close to 1 HR per 9 innings, which seems to be close to league average (could be very wrong here, so please let me know otherwise). All in all, he's doing a fantastic job and most of it is pretty much in line with his minor league numbers. I see no reason why he cannot be our #3 starter for the next couple of seasons, and the fact that we've got him near the league minimum until 2010 after which he will become arb eligible.

What do you guys think?

O'Brien on the Tex Trade.

Smoltz's Beard — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 13:32:19 -0000

With some FireJoeMorgan.com spice to it:

New Criterion For Being Good At Baseball: YOU MUST IMPRESS DAVID O'BRIEN

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Snap-billed mreetwass
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The snap-billed mreetwass is a legendary creature with the body of a unicorn, the tail of a griffin, the face of a Korean person, and the wings of a leprechaun (if a leprechaun had wings). The mreetwass feeds on DVDs of the Larry Sanders Show and reproduces once a year, always on Cinco de Mayo. The mreetwass is notable for only being identifiable by one Mr. David O'Brien of Atlanta, Georgia. Mr. O'Brien is the world's foremost and only authority on mreetwasses and Mreetwassery (the study of mreetwasses); all inquiries should be directed to him.

Wikipedia entry created by awesomeobrieninternet69 at 02:30, 21 July 2008.

---

Now imagine that same bullshit, but in place of the word "mreetwass" insert the words "impact offensive player." You pretty much have the premise of David O'Brien's piece on trading Mark Teixeira.

Is Teixeira, with his Gold Glove-level defense and likely .290-30-120 to .310-45-130 offensive range for many years to come, worth $20 mill a season? I’d say only to a team that has a huge payroll, at least $150 mill or so. Not to a team with a $100 mill payroll, because while he piles up stats, he’s not a player, at least from what I’ve seen, who puts a team on his back and delivers big hits when the team needs it most.

The mreetwass, you see, doesn't settle for hitting 35 home runs or 125 RBI. He concentrates on leading the league in Distance Carried (Team on Back Division) and Hits (Bigtime Department). He wins David O'Brien over.

All Teixeira has done is put up OPS+ years of 150, 126, 144, and 131 the last four years, along with the aforementioned stellar defense. He does "pile up stats" because he's very good at baseball, and baseball people who watch baseball games record stats to show how good or bad someone is at baseball. That said, he will probably be overpaid. Some non-mreetwassian reasons for this:

1) He has a career home/away OPS split of .955/.859, so some team paying for his fat home run totals and ostentatious slugging percentages may be being a little misled by the Ballpark at Arlington.

2) He plays first base, where you can usually find some decent hitting, and decent power hitting at that.

3) The first base thing means his defense, which is very good, is perhaps not all that valuable.

4) He will get something like 7 years, $140 million, and he's not quite on that super-elite near-1.000 OPS-hitting level of guys like Pujols or A-Rod or (pre-2008) Miguel Cabrera.

5) He'll be 29 next year, so in your megadeal for him you're going to be getting some 34- or 35-year-old Tex in there.

But I'm drifting from the point here, which is: what are David O'Brien's crazy reasons for pooh-poohing Teixeira?

Say, for instance, during the first six weeks of this season, when the Braves were dealing with a slew of injuries and Chipper Jones was carrying the offense with help from either Brian McCann or Yunel Escobar, but not much from Tex.

Stupid Tex -- didn't you know that all truly great players kick ass for the first six weeks of the season? That is prime time, baby. Real men mash in April.

Slow-starter or not (and he’s a slow-starter, every season), the Braves needed to count on him for power and RBIs, and didn’t get it on a regular basis until about two months into the season, when they were already back in the standings.

So if Teixeira swats 20 bombs post-All Star break in 2008, is he an asshole because he waited until his team was out of contention? I'm confused. I'm so used to the exact same argument being used against guys who peak too early. Hey, the 2007 Mets were 22-12 after six weeks. Was that the right time for them to play awesome?

Even yesterday, his two-homer, three-RBI game didn’t have much impact, seeing that both homers were solo shots, one early in the game when the Braves were already down 6-1, and the other, well, I’d have to look it up, it was so relatively meaningless near the end of an utter blowout loss.

Mreetwasses only homer when the game is within two runs either way. It's a switch they just turn on and off. Also, no solo shots: those are for dickheads.

Anywaym [sic], this isn’t to diminish his skills or output.

Not at all. You just called his last home run "relatively meaningless" and said he doesn't deliver "big hits when the team needs it most." How could he be offended?

He’s durable and piles up stats, year after year.

This is entering Blyleven territory. People, Jesus: stats are just records of things that happen in ballgames. You only "pile up stats" because you do good things, over and over again, game after game, year after year. Ergo: you are good.

But I know an impact offensive player, a player whose performance seems bigger than his numbers because he gets so many key hits. And I know the opposite.

And there we have David O'Brien's definition of the mythical mreetwass: it's someone who impresses David O'Brien. Someone who "seems" good. Someone who has the goddamn courtesy to get "key" "big" hits when David O'Brien is watching TBS and not when David O'Brien is in the kitchen for a second to pour David O'Brien a bowl of Smart Start for David O'Brien to eat.

Of course, there's also the opposite of the mreetwass, the shünkrogle. I wonder who might be one of those...

A-Rod, for instance. Dude piles up huge numbers, year after year. Tremendous numbers.

He must be terrible!

But let me ask you, how many SportsCenter highlights can you remember this year of A-Rod late-game homers or walk-off hits? Maybe a couple or few early on, but lately?

The shünkrogle, as we all know, is miserable in the all-important statistical category of SCHYCRL-GHW-OH,L (SportsCenter Highlights You Can Remember of Late-Game Homers or Walk-Off Hits, Lately). This trumps his OPS+ (159) and his EqA (.334) and his VORP (39.6).

The greatest thing about SCHYCRL-GHW-OH,L is that it's different for everybody. It could be 3. It could be 0. It could be 49.5. It's what you remember, and you can't be wrong about that. Finally, a stat that the fan can participate in. "What's your SCHYCRL-GHW-OH,L?" should be ESPN's new slogan for the big show.

A-Rod’s the highest paid player in the game, and many will tell you he’s the best player in the game. But he’s not the player I would build a team around if I could have any player. No way.

Mine neither, probably, at least not if we're talking about a team for both now and the future and not just this year. He's too old for that. But for this season, and this season alone, I'm not sure you can do too much better than A-Rod. Pujols? Utley? Berkman? Hanley? Chipper? Sizemore? Wright? It's a short, short list.

But you know, you just have to listen to the guy who literally wrote the Wikipedia article on mreetwasses (and probably shünkrogles, I have to check), David O'Brien. And he says, emphatically: NO WAY.

I have to hand it to David O'Brien. He's basically solved baseball analysis. Come up with a fake term ("impact offensive player"), fake-define it with subjective, self-referential, fake parameters ("from what I've seen...big hits when the team needs it," "performance seems bigger than his numbers," "key hits," "I know an impact offensive player"), and presto, you're Earth's premier expert on that fake term -- no amount of actual baseball information can ever change that. It's like creating your own Planet Baseball with the absolute data isolation of a short-lived Wikipedia page, and then ruling the shit out of that planet. You know what? Congratulations, David O'Brien. You have to respect that.

Sabernomics.

Smoltz's Beard — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 20:07:38 -0000

It's a painfully slow day at work today, so I've already ran out of things to read from my normal FantasyBaseball/TalkingChop/FireJoeMorgan/Deadspin/WhateverVideoGameI'mPlaying rotation. I decided to take a look at some of the links that TC has to offer. The first one I clicked on was good old Sabernomics...it's been a while since I've visited. The first thing I noticed was that the newest post was about Francoeur. And the next was. And the next was. Is the person who runs that site a Braves fan? Either way, if you're as bored as I am you may want to check it out.

Nice weekend.

Smoltz's Beard — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 13:42:54 -0000

Back from AC to see that our boys had a nice little weekend series. Looks as though Campillo was left in for 1 inning too long (can't be sure, as I did not see the game), but a series victory...even against the M's...is a great thing. Especially when a better AL team, who we just won a series against, sweeps the Phils. It was nice to see our "terrible" bench players coming through with some clutch hits. They were being very selfish, however, because they were not hitting towering home runs.

Our Prospects

Smoltz's Beard — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 17:02:27 -0000

Kevin Goldstein over at Baseball Prospectus started going through his Spring Training list of the top 100 prospects in the minors. He's judging how well they've done up to this point in the season, and examining if they've improved or declined and whether or not they will find their way back to his top 100 list next season. Here's what he said about our guys (50-100 posted 6/19):

63. Brent Lillibridge, SS, Braves
Eligible Next Year? Yes
Production: .185/.251/.245 at Triple-A (52 G); .000/.000/.000 at MLB (2 G)
Stock Report: Plummeting. He got off to a bad start at Richmond, began pressing, and now seems to be trapped in a death spiral.

70. Brandon Jones, OF, Braves
Eligible Next Year? Unlikely
Production: .263/.335/.379 at Triple-A (54 G); .476/.522/.762 at MLB (6 G)
Stock Report: He didn’t do much at Richmond, but a hot start in the big leagues has probably bought him an extended look.

83. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Braves
Eligible Next Year? Yes
Production: .318/.376/.519 at High-A (35 G)
Stock Report: Up. Although he missed a good chunk of the season with a hamstring injury, he's showing improvements in both power and patience, which is the difference between his being a good prospect and an excellent one.

86. Jair Jurrjens, RHP, Braves
Eligible Next Year? No
Production: 3.43 ERA at MLB (84-86-34-62)
Stock Report: Up significantly. Jurrjens has proven himself a reliable, above-average big league starter, and he’s only 22 years old.

I don't know about you guys, but I'm beginnig to be very excited about Gorkys Hernandez. When we first traded for him I figured he was just a typical burner, like a Michael Bourn-type who could actually hit for average. But he's sporting a .513 SLG (Goldstein must have put this list together a couple days ago) right now with 18 of his 50 hits going for XBH. He also does have his 6 SBs in 7 attempts, and 1 error in 99 chances. With Schafer closer to the majors it will be interesting to see what happens there.

Our old freind Elvis made the first half of his list as well. Second half should come next week.

58. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers
Eligible Next Year? Yes
Production: .269/.328/.324 at Double-A (53 G)
Stock Report: Down significantly. Scouts are tired of hearing about how young and toolsy he is; he’s at Double-A and it’s time to produce.

"Chasing Four-Tenths"

Smoltz's Beard — Tue, 13 May 2008 16:54:45 -0000

I'm not sure if I'm really supposed to be continuously pasting segments of Baseball Prospectus directly onto this blog, but please go ahead and erase this if you feel it is unnecessary Gondee. It's just a short article about our boy:

Sabermetric study has long ago proven that batting average is not one of the better indicators of a player’s offensive prowess. On-base percentage, slugging percentage, and a host of other, more advanced metrics paint a clearer picture. A look at Chipper Jones’ OBP, SLG, and EqA shows the venerable Braves third baseman is off to an outstanding start this season. Jones’ 1144 OPS and .389 EqA are both second in the major leagues to the Astros’ Lance Berkman (1243, .393), while his .459 OBP and .685 SLG are both third.

However, the number that stands out the most in Jones’ stat line for many is his .400 batting average, which leads the majors. While average is an archaic measure to more contemporary analysts, there is still something magical about the mark, and it still appears on every scoreboard in the major leagues.

"It’s such a special mark in the game of baseball," Braves manager Bobby Cox said. "I don’t think that will ever change, regardless of the new statistics you see nowadays. For someone to hit .400 for an entire season would be one of the greatest feats in sports. Heck, just to hit .400 for as long as Chipper has is a great accomplishment. You’ve seen how long it’s been since someone has done that."

Sixty-seven years have passed since Ted Williams hit .406 for the 1941 Red Sox. Only four players have hit even .380 since--Tony Gwynn (.394 for the Padres in strike-shortened 1994), George Brett (.390 for the 1990 Royals), Williams (.388 for the 1957 Red Sox), and Rod Carew (.388 for the 1977 Twins).

"I always though Pete Rose would be the one guy who could do it, but he never came close, which tells you how hard it is," Cox reflected. Rose holds baseball’s all-time hits record with 4,256, but his highest batting average in a 24-year career was .348.

While Cox isn’t about to say that Jones is ready to become the first player since Williams to finish at .400, he does see why the 15-year veteran could at least have a fighting chance at the mark. "When you look at the last two guys who made a serious run at .400, Gwynn and Brett, those guys used the whole field as hitters and didn’t strike out very much," Cox said. "Chipper is the same kind of hitter. He has a little more power than those guys, but he sprays the ball from gap to gap and makes consistent contact. I’ll tell you this much, though, if he keeps swinging the bat all year like he has so far this season, he’d have a chance. I’ve seen him get hot a lot of times over the years, but I’ve never seen him this hot for this long."

Jones isn’t getting caught up in any kind of .400 mania at this early point of the season, saying "I’m swinging the bat well but it’s far too early to be thinking what my batting average might be at the end of the year."

Jones believes he has been the beneficiary of hitting behind the pair of players in the top two spots in the order, second baseman Kelly Johnson and shortstop Yunel Escobar. Johnson has a .328 on-base percentage and a .267 EqA but had a .375 OBP last year, while Escobar’s figures are .399 and .301. That trio at the top has helped the Braves rank third in the majors as a team in EqA. "When they are on base all the time, pitchers have to come right at me," Jones said. "They can’t afford to try to pitch around me and put another runner on base. It always helps when you’re getting pretty good pitches to hit. We’ve got a pretty good offense and when Johnson and Escobar are getting on base the way they are, we’re really good. There is no reason why we shouldn’t score a lot of runs."

What has the 36-year-old Jones more excited from a personal standpoint is that he is just four home runs away from 400 in his career. The only other switch-hitters to reach that mark are Mickey Mantle (536) and Eddie Murray (511). Jones appreciates being in that company. "When you think of Mickey Mantle you think of home runs and when you think of Eddie Murray, you think of longevity and his ability to produce runs," Jones said. "I’d like to be remembered as a combination of the two, a guy who could be counted on to hit home runs, drive in runs, hit for a high average, get on base, hit for power and be consistent from both sides of the plate, a consistently good switch-hitter."

The Rake.

Smoltz's Beard — Fri, 09 May 2008 14:31:45 -0000

Just thought I'd flash a couple quotes from Baseball Prospectus in regards to the Greg Norton pickup:

In itself, nabbing Norton didn't do all of the things that the Braves needed to get done in patching up their infield, but it's a good move no matter how you slice. Losing Prado hurt in that Prado is a playable glove at both middle infield positions, where Ruben Gotay is a good-hit second baseman who can't really play short, and probably shouldn't play third. Norton hasn't played third since 2005 (at Charlotte), and really hasn't played a lot of third since 2000, for the White Sox. Happily, Infante was due to come off of the DL, eradicating that particular problem. Having Gotay and Norton means that the Braves have a pair of very playable bats to plug in for pinch-hitting, no small thing in the National League, or as an improvement on last year's woeful bench.

I believe we had someone mention the fact that he was slowed due to injury last season...yes?

The silver lining to adding Norton is that it should be remembered that he was playing at less than full speed much of last season after April surgery on his knee; from August 1 on, Norton hit .310 and slugged .460, and while it's easy to play these sorts of sample-size games, keep in mind that Norton had a big year in 2006, that he has a lot of experience coming off of the bench, and that he has a decent career record as a pinch-hitter (.237/.321/.409). Add in that he's a much more effective hitter against right-handers, but doesn't go away against lefties, and he's absolutely worth a wee bit of O'Cash. He should be a strong enough hitter to spot for Mark Teixeira now and again at first (as needed), play an outfield corner in a pinch, and be an automatic plug-in for DH duties in the interleague games.

He's already come through with two big hits in three tries (the ultimate small sample size, right?), and as stated above...if we just end up sending some cash to the Northwest it looks like a good move. I'd be very happy if we could somehow come away with the same Norton who had a .895 OPS in 329 PAs, coming off our bench.

Neftali Feliz.

Smoltz's Beard — Mon, 05 May 2008 17:00:34 -0000

Kevin Goldstein had an interesting writeup of Feliz in Baseball Prospectus. He had a chance to watch Feliz pitch and came away very impressed. His line was as follows:

5 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

According to Goldstein, the scout's radar gun that he was sitting next to had Feliz clocked between 90-96mph very consistently. Feliz also threw a "nasty" changeup and a slider, including an 80mph slider for a strikeout on a 3-2 count after five straight fastballs between 93-95mph. The scout's reaction was:

He was very impressive. The arm is electric, and he established his fastball early in the game. He certainly flashed some average breaking balls, and that changeup has a good chance to be plus. He should end up with average command and control, as he’s smooth and repeats his delivery very well. The things I really liked was how he could turn it up a notch when he needed it-–that’s what big leaguers do.

To summarize Goldstein said the following:

At the end of the 2006 season, I ranked Feliz as the No. 3 prospect in the Braves system, a decision that was met with mockery and derision by some. A year later, despite the fact that he pitched just 42 1/3 innings in 2007, he was suddenly in everybody’s Top 10 lists, and in a loaded Rangers system as well. I ranked him No. 1 this time, which was once again met with mockery and derision. After seeing him in person and getting thoughts from the scouts in attendance, I stand by the ranking.

I know this goes without saying...but we really need to resign Tex.

"Broken Braves"

Smoltz's Beard — Thu, 01 May 2008 19:48:19 -0000

Will Carroll over at Baseball Prospectus writes a colum called "Under the Knife" which is basically an injury roundup. This weeks he writes about two of our boys...Smoltz and Hampton. Gondee normally shoots me the /evileye when I paste entire articles, so I'll do some light paraphrasing:

Smoltz - "Smoltz's shoulder isn't better served by his being in the pen, and in fact Smoltz had just as many problems while in the pen, fatiguing at the end of the season just as he has as a starter. The real problem is that we're in May and Smoltz is experiencing the same kinds of problems—inflammation, impingement, and pain—that he has at the end of the season."..."Asking him to recover from shorter outings might appear to be different enough to allow him to stay more productive, but there's no evidence to support it; a sprinter and a marathon runner do vastly different tasks, but their bodies fatigue the same. Pitching isn't the enemy; fatigue is, and until we get a better understanding of that in both general and specific ways, we'll be talking about this again and again."

Hampton - "I realize that the Braves can't just toss Hampton into the rotation and hope it works, risking a long day for their increasingly thin bullpen, but that's where pairing him up with another starter, especially one like Jair Jurrjens who needs to be inning-limited and has relieved in the past, would make sense. Hampton could "start" the game, go a set number of innings, and then give way to the real starter. Brewers GM Doug Melvin has discussed this same scenario in hopes of getting starters, theoretically the best pitchers on your team, into the high-leverage later innings without increasing their pitch counts significantly. I think it's a brilliant idea, and certainly worth a try."..."The Braves should be taking notes on this. Hampton's simply too fragile at this stage—coming out of his rehab work with a recurrence of his pectoral strain—to risk losing any value he may have working in the minors, so getting creative might get them something for the money and roster spot he's been taking."

What do you guys think?