The Cubs need to unload the turbulent Milton Bradley and his $21 million salary. The club is pushing the limit of its budget, weighed down by inflated contracts, even as it attempts to sign free agents or trade for players to help them compete in 2010.

Many people point to the DeRosa trade and signing of Milton Bradley as the point where the Cubs went bad. While I cannot deny the impact of these moves, which I at best was suspect but hopeful of at the time, I believe there is another key move by the Cubs that bares examination in any discussion of how we got here.

During the winter of 2006 and 2007 the Cubs went on a spending spree in an attempt to bolster the team and win then. The Cubs needed a bat and had a choice between two outstanding free agents, both left fielders.

The first was Alfonso Soriano, who hit .277 with a career high .351 OBP with 46 HRs and 95 RBIs with 41 SBs. Soriano styled himself a leadoff man despite his power numbers and the Cubs also needed a leadoff man. They felt that signing the speedy and powerful Soriano would solve both problems in one stroke. I will not discuss the logic of this belief as it has been done so already to no firm conclusion.

The Cubs other choice was Carlos Lee, who split time between Milwaukee and Texas in 2006 hitting .300 with a .355 OBP with 37 HRs and 116 RBIs. Lee, I think everyone can agree, is decidedly not a leadoff hitter despite his 19 SBs in 2006.

The Cubs choose Soriano, committing eight years and $136 million to the outfielder. When I read on the internet that The Cubs had signed a major free agent, a legitimate 40-homerun hitter I was ecstatic. I couldn't believe that the Cubs had spent the money to bring in a top-flight free agent coming off a career year. Though, as the controversy as to whether he should in fact hit leadoff began, and I realized the implications of his deal, I couldn't help but wonder if Carlos Lee would not have been the better choice (I don't mean to say that to make myself look better, I really did wonder that and posted to that affect on the now defunct TalkingCubs.com). But, I let it go, not wanting to look a gift horse in the mouth.

Everyone knows what has happened with Soriano and the Cubs since then, but I think we should examine his performance in comparison with what Carlos Lee has done in that time.

In 2007 Soriano posted an excellent .299 AVG with a respectable .337 OBP 33 HRs 70 RBIs 97 Rs with 31 BBs and 130 Ks in 135 games. His stolen bases dropped to 19 with a leg injury.

Lee, in the same year in Houston, put up a 303 AVG .354 OBP 32 HRs 119 RBIs 93 Rs with 53 BBs and 63 Ks in 162 games. Lee's SBs also dropped to 10.

Overall, not a huge difference between the two. Averages are about the same, Lee got on base more, home runs are about the same, but Lee, hitting in the middle of the Astros lineup, drove in 49 more RBIs (admittedly a team dependent stat) while walking 22 more times and striking out 67 less times. Lee's OBP as a middle of the order hitter was also 17 points higher, and he was driven in just four times less than Soriano as a lead-off hitter (admittedly a team dependent stat).

In 2008, injured again, Soriano hit a respectable .280 with a fine .344 OBP 29 HRs 75 RBIs 76 Rs 43 BBs and 103 Ks in 109 games, injured again. He ran for another 19 SBs

Lee, meanwhile, posted a .314 AVG with a .368 OBP 28 HRs 100 RBIs 61 Rs 37 walks and 49 Ks in 115 games. Not a big part of his game, his stolen bases dropped to just 4. Lee was also injured, playing in just six more games than Soriano.

Lee hit a full 34 points higher than Soriano in 2008 with an OBP that was 24 points higher than the leadoff man. Only one homer separated the two, the advantage going to Soriano, while Lee drove in 25 more RBIs (admittedly a team dependent stat) in the middle of the order in just 6 more games. Lee was also driven in 15 less times than Soriano (admittedly a team dependent stat). Lee walked 6 less times than Soriano, but also struck out 54 less times.

In 2009 Alfonso Soriano was injured again, but played in 117 games. His numbers, however, fell sharply as he hit just .241 with a .303 OBP 20 HRs 55 RBIs 64 Rs 40 BBs and 118 Ks. He ran for just 9 SBs

Lee hit an even .300 with a .343 OBP 26 HRs 102 RBIs 65 Rs 41 BBs and 51 Ks in 160 games. He stole just 5 bases.

Although Lee also suffered a slip in some key categories, Lee hit 59 points higher than Soriano and got on base 40 points more. He hit just 6 more homeruns than the injury plagued Soriano, but drove in 47 more RBIs (admittedly a team dependent stat) being driven in one more time than Soriano (admittedly, a team dependent stat). Lee walked just once more than Soriano but struck out 67 less times in 43 more games played.

As you may have guessed, my thesis is that the Cubs should have signed the more durable less controversial bat of Carlos Lee in the winter of 2006-2007 instead of Soriano. The stats that represent this the most to me are Average, Runs Batted In, On Base Percentage, and Strikeouts, not to mention Lee’s more reasonable, though still extravagant deal of six years and $100 million.

Hindsight is 20/20, and one can never say what a particular player would or would not have done with a particular team had they signed him instead of someone else, but if what Lee and Soriano have done since that fateful decision are any indication of what they would have done, say, if their roles were reversed then I feel it is clear that Carlos Lee would have been the better choice.

I still like Soriano and feel, if healthy, that he can be a large contributor to this ball club. I just feel, in hindsight, Lee would have been the better choice.

EDIT:

Many posters have quite correctly pointed out that Soriano is superior defensively to Lee. In addition, several posters point out reasons Lee wanted to stay in Texas, such as his ranch there, and that Soriano was more durable until he came to the Cubs.

Basiclly, my thesis is blown out of the water. I should have considered other factors other than offense, and for that i apologize.

What about trying to trade for Rafael Soriano? According to our favorite site he has already given his trade clearance.

Rafael went 1-6 in 77 Gs last season with a 2.97 ERA a 1.06 WHIP with a .194 BAA 27 BBs 102 Ks and 6 HLDs 27 SVs. in 31 chances

Going into next season, as of now, we have a very young bullpen. Bringing in Soriano would add a veteran right arm to the pen, something I know the Cubs have been interested in, and provide insurance behind the sometimes Hot and Cold Carlos Marmol at Closer.

I don't know what the Braves would want for him.

From our favorite site, but confirmed on Cubs.com:

There's a few other Cubs' rumors on that link from mlbtraderumors.com as well.

Burrell hit .221 with a .315 OBP 14 HRs 64 RBIs .367 SLG .682 OPS

 57 BBs 119 Ks

I think I'd rather just keep Bradley if Burrell is the best option (not saying he is).

I haven't figured out how to quote text, though it's probably just an HTML thing. maybe next time. Anyway, seventy-five words, seventy-five words, seventy-five words.

The league is set up, invitations have been sent out to those managers from last year. I am looking to expand the league from last year. If interested please post or send me your e-mail and I'll send you the information.

75 words needed:

Rabbit Season! Duck Season! Rabbit Season! Duck Season! Rabbit Season! Rabbit Season! Duck Season! Rabbit Season Duck Season! Rabbit Season! Duck Season! Rabbit Season! Duck Season! Rabbit Season! Duck Season! Rabbit Season! Duck Season! FIRE!

In the wake of A-Rod's alleged positive test being leaked the question as to whether or not the whole tests should be made public?

I was just watching ESPN and they were discussing this issue. The argument was that to make all the tests public would A) place the blame where it belongs and B) Remove the cloud of suspicion that now pervades every Major Leaguer that was tested at that time.

The counter is that these tests were done with the understanding that they would be annonoymous. And, that these tests were done five years ago. Could any punishment be given at this time? And, if so, what?

Not to mention that if the test results are made public...well, you know: everybody's name get's dragged through the mud. But, then again, they were the one's who screwed up.

So, what do you guys think?

"Manny Being Manny", and the obsessive coverage the EaStern sPorts Network gives it

...Or...

The Days of Brett Favre?

Personally, I can't stand either one. I don't hate the Red Sox, but the Yanks-Sox back and forth in the media is so annoying. "Manny Being Manny" makes it worse so.

Meanwhile, I can't decide who is more of a child in the Favre drama: Favre or the Packers.

Three more words.

From mlbtraderumors.com (Yeah, I know):

Cubs Pursuing Harden In Wake Of Sabathia Deal By Tim Dierkes [July 7 at 8:47am CST]

How will the Cubs counter the Brewers' C.C. Sabathia acquisition?  They simply can't match it, but the next best thing might be Rich Harden.  Harden is also a frontline starter, but he lacks Sabathia's durability.

According to Chris De Luca of the Chicago Sun-Times, "the Cubs have spent a lot of time on the phone recently with Oakland Athletics GM Billy Beane trying to pry away Harden."  De Luca says they've been discussed a deal for at least a month.  Plan C is apparently Randy Wolf.  Will Carroll says the Cubs "think they match up well for A.J. Burnett."      

Jayson Stark commented on the Harden situation on Thursday:

The A's will consider any offers that allow them to add and subtract at the same time. But any Harden deal would have to at least approach last winter's Dan Haren extravaganza.

A reminder: Baseball America ranked Carlos Gonzalez as the game's #22 prospect, and Brett Anderson was #36.  The Cubs don't have two players like that.  Then add Greg Smith and Dana Eveland, who have combined for a 3.52 ERA in 207 innings this year.  Oh, and toss in Chris Carter and Aaron Cunningham for good measure.  That was a haul, even for an ace like Haren. 

Link.

Ensure our guys get in, especially Fukudome:

As of the last update the National League's tightest race was for the final starting spot in the outfield with Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers trailing Kosuke Fukudome of the Chicago Cubs by a mere 32,925 votes. While the final offline votes continue to be tabulated, in the past 48 hours of exclusive online voting Braun has received 41% more online votes than Fukudome in what is shaping up to be one of the most exciting finishes in the history of fan balloting.

Click Here or on Al's link below to vote.

One person...25 votes.

We should trade Soriano.

BREATHE! BREATHE NOW!

OK.

Despite what you believe, I'm not an idiot. And, I love the Fonze. But, Looking at the Cubs as objectively as I can, I see Soriano as causing serious problems for the Cubs. He may believe he is, but he is not a leadoff hitter. And, if he can't get past this mental block against batting lower in the order at somepoint over the next 6 years of his contract as he ages and he's, presumbably, able to run less he'll cause more problems.

That leads us to our first, and primary, obstacle: his contract. The good news is that the going rate for outfielders is going up, not down. In a couple years, his contract will look better.

The solution is to look at clubs that have a lot of money to throw around, like the Yankees and Red Sox, or clubs that are rebuilding and need a draw, like the Giants.

But, setting aside the issue of the contract for the moment, what should we try for? Starting pitching or a left handed power hitting outfielder?

While our pitching needs shoring up (in my opinoin, and in the opinoin of many others) our more immediate concern is a lefty power hitting outfielder:

Matsui, Abreau, Dunn, Griffey Jr., Crawford, et-al

Pitching wise, how about:

Kazmir, Lincecum or Cain, Bonderman or Verlander, ect.

So, keeping in mind the principle of flame-free posting, what do you think?

I just heard Len and Bob discussing the fact that Fonzie will be back soon, and that he'll bat leadoff.

This has been discussed before, but here we are again.

Now, I love the Fonze, and I love Uncle Lou, but why is the Fonze going bak into the leadoff spot?

We have viable leadoff options in Reed Johnson and Ryan Theriot as well as Cedeno, and Fontenote off the bench. DeRosa could probably even do it on the short term.

Meanwhile, we are insisting on putting a 40 home run gun (in the past, and potentially for the future) free swinger, who struck out 130 times last season, and 160 the year before. Furthermore, with his leg injuries he may not be able to run as he once did.

So the question has to be asked; or rather the question sneed to be asked:

Should Alfonso Soriano bat leadoff

and

Why is Soriano going to bat leadoff again?