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User Blog

1st Shift Corsi by Zone: The Impact of Neutral Zone Performance on Future Success

A study looking at the correlation between zone specific performance and winning in the NHL.

Expectation vs. Reality: A look at an inaccurate label Patrick Marleau has carried his entire career


Expectation vs. Reality: A look at an inaccurate label Patrick Marleau has carried his entire career

Introducing P+CORP: Points + Corsi Over Replacement Player


A skater valuation system based on simple, yet powerful principles.

Defining the NHL Replacement Player


In what has become a tradition for most SBNation hockey blogs following their teams withdrawal from the NHL season, FTF has started individual player season reviews for the 2011-2012 campaign. In...

Control of the Neutral Zone: A Review of the San Jose Sharks vs. St. Louis Blues Series


A look at who controlled the neutral zone during the St. Louis Blues vs. San Jose Sharks series.

The Probability That Plank or Taylor Make an Accurate Prediction


At the end of each gameday Plank or Taylor predict the the final score and the goal scorers. A question came up in the comments section a few days ago about the probability that Plank or Taylor's...

The Neutral Zone Battle


Who has controlled the Neutral zone in the series between the Sharks and Blues?

Goals by Expected Points


A FTF late night special. I usually look at predictive stats because I'm mostly interested in trying to evaluate true talent. Every now and then I'll take some time to look back at the season...


2011-2012 Running Playoff Probabilities

Running Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/3/12 Disclaimer: This is a prediction of the final standings, and is by no means 100% accurate. I use what I believe to be the most accurate predictor of...

Should the NHL Include OT in Tie Breakers?


***Update So I ran the numbers for 2007-2010 and here are the correlations; Variables Correlation Reg to OT -0.08 Reg to SO -0.05 OT to SO 0.10 Interesting that this year has shown...

A Look at the Sharks Through the Lens of a Microscope


What a win last night! The Sharks continue to find a way to put the puck past the Red Wings, which many teams this year have struggled to do. Maybe McLellan's time with Detroit has given him the...

Score%: Additional Context to Contemplate


If advanced statistics is your brother's/cousin's/son's/daughter's T-ball league then the"Most Improved" trophy this year has to go to score effects (often used to describe the goal state of the...

Running Playoff Probabilities


As we are closing in on the end of the season, I'll be trying to update these as often as possible.

Weekly Playoff Probabilities: Fairy Tales, Fenwick, and the Accuracy Paradox


NHL 2011-2012 Score-Adj-Fenwick Playoff Probabilities

A V-day gift for your loved one: Chocolate covered League-Wide Deployment (minus the chocolate)


Do NHL coaches deploy their skaters by zone or opposing line? A detailed statistical look.

Todd McLellan's Deployment


Todd McLellan's player deployment

Weekly Playoff Probabilities: With Bonus Fenwick Analysis!


Weekly NHL Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities: Applying Score-Adjusted Fenwick%


What are the chances [insert your NHL team] makes the playoffs? Come see...


That Was Ugly: How the SJS Play Against Top Talent

After the implosion which was last night's game I had this creeping feeling that all veteran sharks fans feel between now and April. Are we just a good regular season team? I don't mean to start...


EPA Game 38 vs. WSH

A look at just the numbers. The table after the jump shows Expected Points Added (EPA) and Success Ratio (SR). SR is the # of shifts with a positive EPA divided by total # of shifts with a EPA...

NHL Re-alignment: What would the 2010-2011 season look like? (Updated)


How would the 2010-2011 season have looked under the proposed re-alingment?


Expected Points - Game 36 @ ANA

For a detailed explination of Expected Points, please see this post at behind the net. Onto the numbers

A Deeper Look Into In-Game Expected Points


Today I want to explain the theory behind the EP data I've been posting recently, and its implications. You may be familiar with the concept of expected points. It has been featured on fangraphs (...

WPG Vs. OTT By Expected Points (EP)


I decided to take a look at the WPG/OTT game a few days ago by expected points. Expected points is the average standings points an average NHL team would accrue in a given game state. The model...


SJ Vs. MTL by Expected Points

Last night's game was interesting in that SJ never actually lead until the SO. Here is a look at the team's performance by Expected Points (EP is the average amount of points a league average NHL...


A look back at the last 3 games using expected points

  Expected points is basically the average amount of points (ie. standings points) scored by teams over the last 3 years by game state.  The basic model I created takes time, goal differential,...


Is the Sharks PK really that bad?

A lot of talk about the PK lately.  It's still very early in the season and thus projections right now are not as reliable as they will be after 40 games or so. But if we assume that shooting...


SSW: With so much luck, when are stats useful?

With all the talk about PDO, and given the time of year I figured it would be appropriate to show the final results from my work on traditional stats (G, Ast, Pts, PIM) reliability.  As has been...

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