SB Nation User Blog: SnowLeopard

Don't Look Now, But ...

SnowLeopard — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 16:33:19 -0000

Don't Look Now, But ...

Francisco Liriano spent most of 2008 on a rehab assignment at Rochester AAA (where he mowed 'em down). However, in seven starts since being recalled to The Show last month, he has been:

5-0
1.44 ERA
.191 BAA
1.01 WHIP
7.83 K/9

And he's still only 24 yo. :(

Jeff Kent - Career over?

SnowLeopard — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 05:41:01 -0000

Mister Ponstache O'Truckwasher seems to have badly ripped the cartilage in his left knee. He was already apparently planning for this to be his last season anyway. The timing though of course doesn't help the Bums already sinking playoff chances ...

Fun With Game Scores

SnowLeopard — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 00:47:13 -0000

[Warning : LOTS OF CHARTS]

I imagine everyone knows what the statistic "game score" is? If you don't, this is for you.

I have a spreadsheet that I keep with information on starts by Giants pitchers. It's got data from opening day 1996 to, well, yesterday's game in it. Today, procrastinating packing to move, I was messing around with the "game score" column, and I wanna share some of what I came up with.

Here comes the science ...

Here are the Giants pitchers who have started ten or more games since 1996, post-season included, ranked by descending number of total starts:

Rueter	283
Schmidt	166
SEstes	159
RuOrtiz	159
MrkGardner	148
LiHernandez	115
Lowry	100
Cain	83
Tomko	60
Morris	54
VanLandingham	49
JerWilliams	47
Zito	46
Hennessey	40
RyJensen	40
OsFernandez	39
Lincecum	37
Hershiser	34
Correia	32
DaDarwin	32
AlnWatson	29
Nathan	28
DuHermanson	24
Foppert	23
MrkLeiter	22
JerSanchez	21
JaWright	21
Brock	19
DaMoss	19
Ainsworth	15
WilAlvarez	12
SPonson	11
Misch	10

Here are their average game score, in descending order:

Schmidt	58.3
Lincecum	56.7
Cain	54.4
SPonson	52.2
Ainsworth	52.0
WilAlvarez	52.0
JerWilliams	51.2
Lowry	51.1
RuOrtiz	51.0
SEstes	50.7
DuHermanson	49.8
JerSanchez	49.3
MrkGardner	49.3
Correia	49.3
Hershiser	49.3
AlnWatson	49.2
Tomko	49.2
LiHernandez	49.0
Nathan	47.9
MrkLeiter	47.6
Morris	47.4
Rueter	47.3
Foppert	47.2
Zito	46.9
RyJensen	46.9
DaMoss	46.8
OsFernandez	46.2
Hennessey	46.1
Brock	45.2
VanLandingham	44.9
JaWright	44.8
DaDarwin	44.6
Misch	40.7

Man, Schmidt was good for us. Can't say as I'm too unhappy I've never seen him in blue. And I don't remember Kurt Ainsworth, Jermome Williams, or Sir Sidney being that good for us, and I don't think of Pat Misch or "Bad Brad" Hennessey as being that bad. But, other than that - no real surprises I guess.

Here is a list of game score standard deviation. Basically, the lower the SD, the most stable the pitcher was from start-to-start. The higher the SD, the more the pitcher varied in how good a start you got from one to another (how "flaky" or "mercurial" they were)

Hermanson	13.2
Ainsworth	13.4
Correia	13.4
Williams	13.7
Foppert	13.9
Alvarez	13.9
Ponson	13.9
Misch	14.0
Lincecum	14.4
Moss	15.3
Hershiser	15.5
Darwin	15.5
Rueter	15.8
Wright	16.4
Brock	16.5
Ortiz	16.6
WatsonAln	16.6
FernandezOs	16.6
RyJensen	16.9
Lowry	16.9
Tomko	17.1
VanLandingham	17.3
Schmidt	17.3
Morris	17.4
MrkLeiter	17.6
Cain	17.9
LiHernandezLi	17.9
Estes	18.0
Gardner	18.0
Zito	18.1
Sanchez	18.1
Nathan	18.2
Hennessey	18.8

The highest game score so far of the Enchanter's young career has been an 83, July 1st last year. In his honor, here is some game score porn : all thirty-seven the Giants 83 or higher game scores from the past thirteen years of play :

* 2007-07-01 - Lincecum, at Hm vs ARI, Giants win 13-0 - 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 K, 0 HR, 97 Pitches, 83 Game Score

* 2007-05-20 - Morris, away vs OAK, Giants win 4-1 - 9.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 0 HR, 127 Pitches, 86 Game Score

* 2006-09-14 - Cain, at Hm vs COL, Giants win 5-0 - 8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 0 HR, 118 Pitches, 84 Game Score

* 2006-08-21 - Lowry, at Hm vs ARI, Giants win 5-0 - 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 0 HR, 114 Pitches, 88 Game Score

* 2006-06-19 - Cain, at Hm vs LAA, Giants win 2-1 - 8.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 10 K, 0 HR, 131 Pitches, 84 Game Score

* 2006-06-06 - Schmidt, at Hm vs FLA, Giants win 2-1 - 9.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 16 K, 1 HR, 124 Pitches, 84 Game Score

* 2006-05-21 - Cain, away vs OAK, Giants win 6-0 - 9.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 0 HR, 120 Pitches, 87 Game Score

* 2006-05-03 - Schmidt, away vs MIL, Giants win 2-0 - 9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 0 HR, 112 Pitches, 84 Game Score

* 2005-09-09 - Cain, at Hm vs CHC, Giants win 2-1 - 9.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 1 HR, 105 Pitches, 86 Game Score

* 2004-08-12 - Schmidt, away vs PIT, Giants win 7-0 - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 120 Pitches, 89 Game Score

* 2004-08-03 - Lowry, at Hm vs CIN, Giants win 11-0 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 0 HR, 120 Pitches, 88 Game Score

* 2004-06-20 - Schmidt, at Hm vs BOS, Giants win 4-0 - 9.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 0 HR, 133 Pitches, 92 Game Score

* 2004-05-18 - Schmidt, away vs CHC, Giants win 1-0 - 9.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 13 K, 0 HR, 144 Pitches, 97 Game Score

* 2003-09-30 - Schmidt, at Hm vs FLA, Giants win 2-0 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 0 HR, 111 Pitches, 86 Game Score

* 2003-06-24 - Schmidt, at Hm vs LA, Giants win 2-1 - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 0 HR, 127 Pitches, 83 Game Score

* 2003-06-19 - Schmidt, away vs LA, Giants win 2-0 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 127 Pitches, 90 Game Score

* 2003-05-21 - Schmidt, away vs ARI, Giants win 6-0 - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, 0 HR, 119 Pitches, 87 Game Score

* 2003-04-30 - Schmidt, at Hm vs CHC, Giants win 5-0 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 12 K, 0 HR, 117 Pitches, 91 Game Score

* 2002-09-25 - LiHernandez, at Hm vs SD, Giants win 6-0 - 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 0 HR, 111 Pitches, 84 Game Score

* 2002-08-20 - Schmidt, at Hm vs NYM, Giants win 1-0 - 9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 13 K, 0 HR, 128 Pitches, 90 Game Score

* 2002-08-19 - LiHernandez, away vs FLA, Giants win 3-0 - 9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 0 HR, 138 Pitches, 83 Game Score

* 2002-07-12 - LiHernandez, at Hm vs COL, Giants win 9-0 - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 8 K, 0 HR, 132 Pitches, 83 Game Score

* 2002-06-19 - Schmidt, at Hm vs TB, Giants win 8-0 - 9.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 127 Pitches, 87 Game Score

* 2002-05-28 - Schmidt, at Hm vs ARI, Giants win 1-0 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 0 HR, 112 Pitches, 86 Game Score

* 2000-08-18 - LiHernandez, at Hm vs ATL, Giants win 2-0 - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K, 0 HR, 121 Pitches, 87 Game Score

* 1999-09-14 - Estes, at Hm vs FLA, Giants win 3-0 - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 0 HR, 107 Pitches, 85 Game Score

* 1998-09-20 - Estes, at Hm vs LA, Giants lose 1-0 - 8.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K, 1 HR, 114 Pitches, 83 Game Score

* 1998-06-28 - Gardner, at Hm vs TEX, Giants win 7-0 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 0 HR, 108 Pitches, 86 Game Score

* 1998-06-15 - Estes, at Hm vs COL, Giants lose 4-3 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 115 Pitches, 85 Game Score

* 1997-08-08 - Gardner, away vs MON, Giants win 4-0 - 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 0 HR, 103 Pitches, 89 Game Score

* 1997-07-04 - Estes, at Hm vs COL, Giants win 4-0 - 8.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 138 Pitches, 89 Game Score

* 1997-05-23 - Estes, at Hm vs STL, Giants win 2-0 - 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 0 HR, 128 Pitches, 85 Game Score

* 1997-04-30 - Gardner, away vs PIT, Giants win 6-1 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 105 Pitches, 88 Game Score

* 1997-04-26 - Estes, away vs HOU, Giants win 2-0 - 9.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, 0 HR, 108 Pitches, 91 Game Score

* 1996-06-02 - MrkLeiter, away vs MON, Giants win 8-1 - 9.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 11 K, 1 HR, 84 Game Score

* 1996-04-25 - Gardner, at Hm vs ATL, Giants win 8-0 - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 90 Game Score

* 1996-04-06 - MrkLeiter, away vs FLA, Giants lose 1-0 - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 0 HR, 85 Game Score

Hmmm ... we've averaged about three 83+ game scores per year in the past thirteen years, but we haven't seen one yet this year (highest so far this year - 79, Sanchez, 2008-04-25, at home vs CIN). I'd guess with our current rotation, we'll see some more GSs in the 80s before the year is out ...

We have however seen a GS of 9 from Matt Cain in April. Here are all the nineteen worst starts by Giants pitchers, i.e. GS < 10, from the past thirteen years (one of them ugggghhh being Russ Ortiz, game two of the 2002 WS) :

* 2008-04-18 - Cain, away vs STL, Giants lose 11-1 - 3.2 IP, 8 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 2 HR, 80 Pitches, 9 Game Score

* 2006-09-22 - Sanchez, away vs MIL, Giants lose 13-12 - 2.0 IP, 8 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 0 HR, 65 Pitches, 9 Game Score

* 2006-09-21 - Morris, away vs MIL, Giants lose 9-4 - 4.1 IP, 9 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR, 77 Pitches, 7 Game Score

* 2006-09-18 - Lowry, away vs COL, Giants lose 20-8 - 1.1 IP, 9 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 2 HR, 45 Pitches, -3 Game Score

* 2005-08-09 - Hennessey, away vs ATL, Giants lose 7-1 - 2.2 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 0 HR, 81 Pitches, 9 Game Score

* 2005-07-23 - Hennessey, at Hm vs FLA, Giants lose 16-4 - 4.1 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 4 BB, 1 K, 2 HR, 88 Pitches, 9 Game Score

* 2004-04-30 - Correia, at Hm vs FLA, Giants win 12-9 - 2.0 IP, 6 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 1 HR, 59 Pitches, 7 Game Score

* 2003-07-03 - Rueter, away vs STL, Giants lose 9-5 - 3.0 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 3 HR, 86 Pitches, 8 Game Score

* 2003-04-09 - RyJensen, at Hm vs SD, Giants win 15-11 - 2.0 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 2 HR, 61 Pitches, 8 Game Score

* 2002-10-20 - RuOrtiz, away vs ANA, Giants lose 11-10 - 1.1 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HR, 47 Pitches, 7 Game Score

* 2002-07-26 - RuOrtiz, at Hm vs LA, Giants lose 11-6 - 2.0 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 4 BB, 0 K, 0 HR, 58 Pitches, 6 Game Score

* 2002-06-18 - LiHernandez, at Hm vs TB, Giants lose 8-3 - 2.1 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 2 HR, 72 Pitches, 8 Game Score

* 2002-04-27 - RyJensen, away vs CIN, Giants lose 8-4 - 2.1 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 2 HR, 56 Pitches, 8 Game Score

* 2001-06-03 - Gardner, away vs COL, Giants lose 11-2 - 3.1 IP, 11 H, 9 R, 9 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 2 HR, 93 Pitches, 3 Game Score

* 2001-05-06 - Rueter, away vs PHI, Giants lose 10-8 - 1.0 IP, 6 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 4 BB, 0 K, 1 HR, 52 Pitches, 7 Game Score

* 2000-05-12 - Nathan, away vs COL, Giants lose 15-7 - 2.1 IP, 9 H, 12 R, 10 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, 2 HR, 87 Pitches, -7 Game Score

* 1999-06-15 - Brock, away vs COL, Giants lose 15-6 - 3.1 IP, 10 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 2 HR, 65 Pitches, 2 Game Score

* 1998-05-23 - Darwin, away vs STL, Giants lose 11-10 - 1.1 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 1 HR, 43 Pitches, 8 Game Score

* 1998-05-13 - Gardner, at Hm vs MON, Giants lose 9-5 - 2.1 IP, 11 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 4 HR, 54 Pitches, 2 Game Score

And here are the ten lucky f*ckers who got a GS under 20, but the GMen still won the game:

* 2005-09-23 - Kinney, away vs COL, Giants win 7-6 - 2.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 2 HR, 53 Pitches, 15 Game Score

* 2005-08-16 - Schmidt, away vs CIN, Giants win 10-8 - 3.2 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 4 BB, 4 K, 2 HR, 91 Pitches, 16 Game Score

* 2004-05-02 - Rueter, at Hm vs FLA, Giants win 9-8 - 4.1 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 0 HR, 95 Pitches, 19 Game Score

* 2004-04-30 - Correia, at Hm vs FLA, Giants win 12-9 - 2.0 IP, 6 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 1 HR, 59 Pitches, 7 Game Score

* 2003-04-09 - RyJensen, at Hm vs SD, Giants win 15-11 - 2.0 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 2 HR, 61 Pitches, 8 Game Score

* 1999-07-06 - Estes, away vs SD, Giants win 10-9 - 5.0 IP, 11 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 2 HR, 92 Pitches, 17 Game Score (Estes actually gets the W)

* 1999-06-20 - Brock, at Hm vs CHC, Giants win 7-6 - 3.0 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR, 84 Pitches, 18 Game Score

* 1999-06-12 - Rueter, away vs SEA, Giants win 15-11 - 5.1 IP, 10 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HR, 107 Pitches, 15 Game Score (Woody actually gets the W)

* 1999-04-06 - Rueter, away vs CIN, Giants win 7-6 - 1.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, 2 HR, 63 Pitches, 12 Game Score

* 1998-04-26 - Gardner, at Hm vs MIL, Giants win 8-7 - 2.0 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HR, 58 Pitches, 14 Game Score

And here are the heartbreakers that get the "Matt Cain 2007 Award" winners, dudes who mowed down the opposition, GS of 77 or higher, but bullpen meltdowns and poor run support meant we still lost :

* 2007-04-17 - Cain, away vs COL, Giants lose 5-3 - 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 0 HR, 110 Pitches, 77 Game Score

* 2006-08-13 - Schmidt, away vs LAD, Giants lose 1-0 - 8.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, 0 HR, 115 Pitches, 80 Game Score

* 2006-08-05 - Lowry, at Hm vs COL, Giants lose 2-1 - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 0 HR, 121 Pitches, 79 Game Score

* 2004-07-06 - Schmidt, at Hm vs COL, Giants lose 8-6 - 7.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 12 K, 1 HR, 116 Pitches, 78 Game Score

* 2004-06-29 - Lowry, away vs LA, Giants lose 2-1 - 7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, 1 HR, 88 Pitches, 77 Game Score

* 2001-08-17 - LiHernandez, at Hm vs ATL, Giants lose 2-1 - 9.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 0 HR, 114 Pitches, 79 Game Score (Livan actually gets the loss)

* 1999-07-25 - Estes, at Hm vs CIN, Giants lose 2-1 - 8.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 HR, 128 Pitches, 78 Game Score

* 1998-09-20 - Estes, at Hm vs LA, Giants lose 1-0 - 8.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K, 1 HR, 114 Pitches, 83 Game Score (Estes actually gets the loss)

* 1998-06-15 - Estes, at Hm vs COL, Giants lose 4-3 - 9.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 11 K, 0 HR, 115 Pitches, 85 Game Score

* 1996-04-06 - MrkLeiter, away vs FLA, Giants lose 1-0 - 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 0 HR, Pitches, 85 Game Score

Rajai Davis to Athletics

SnowLeopard — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 04:27:35 -0000

Rajai for Dan Johnson two weeks ago? Made too much sense. Sabean's not nearly the genius his trade a couple years back with the Twins and his failure to develop any hitting talent to would have you believe.

From the Chron, re: Rajai:

"He plays left, center and right," A's manager Bob Geren said. "He's a good runner. Having a speed guy is something that's a nice addition."

Fun fact : Rajai's from Norwich CT, home of the MIGHTY NORWICH DEFENDIGATORS.

Anyway, the deets:

Link #1

Link #2

Link #3

Mets Close to Signing Yorvit

SnowLeopard — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 01:30:09 -0000

NYN close to signing Yorvit Torreabla.

The plan is to pair him up with Ramon Castro, to replace the previously unreplacable Paul "Heart, Soul, and Godamned Guts of a Hero" Lo Duca.

I take a morbid fascination with Yorvit's career, because of my fixation on the question, if only Sabes has made him the starter during the 2004-05 season. Maybe Sabes can go for a repeat performance, and trade Misch, Sanchez, and Wilson for Ron Belliard, so I can develop a similar fascination with Fransden's future adventures.

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First Base

SnowLeopard — Wed, 07 Feb 2007 01:01:14 -0000

[This is my first Diary post, so please forgive if I don't post it totally right]

El Senor Sabean has always seemed to me to be muy bueno at certain things : scouting and drafting pitchers, finding one last harrah out of vets who everyone else had given up on, getting offensive production out of the middle of the infield, and, before 2003, fleecing other teams on the trading market.

And he has always seemed muy malo at certain other things : scouting drafting and developing position players (duh), understanding the value of OBP in building an offense or K/BB ratio in predicting future performance for pitchers, or letting anyone under 27 get a starting job.

The thing that bugs me the most about his game plan, however, has been his failure to get much production out of the corners of the infield. In the last six years (2001-2006), all Giants third basemen have hit a combined to hit .259/.313/.406, and first basemen have combined for .262/.340/.418. Ugggh. Subtract Snow's immaculate miracle of a second half of 2004 out of the aggregate, and those first base numbers probably look kinda Nefi-esque.

At the start of each off season, I say to myself, OK, first base sucked this year. But, next year, I am certain we'll have some sort of middle-of-the-order guy in there, if not Carlos Delgado or Lyle Overbay or Frank Thomas, then at least like Kevin Millar or something. I mean - right? Nature abhors a vacuum and all?

And each year, opening day comes, and the best that we can hope for from the first base guy is that hey maybe he'll crack 20 homers, or, if the stars all align, hit .270 and not .230.

In writing an article for today's baseball prospectus, Nate Silver didn't think that he was trying to get me mad at Sabean again. But he did:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5848

He said:

Fortunately, writing about first base prospects gives me something of the day off, since there aren't very many of them. A lot of this flows from sabermetric first principles; first base is the endpoint of the defensive spectrum, which not only means that you have to hit a whole lot to make a name for yourself at the position, but also that there's nowhere to go if your defense gets any worse.

First basemen are also hurt by our use of the Upside metric, which only gives players credit for the probability that they're able to turn in a performance above league average. When Keith Woolner did his initial research for VORP, which was based in part on identifying the worst regulars in the league at any given time, he found that there was a particularly large difference between league average and replacement level for first basemen. Generally, if you look around the league at any given time, you'll find a few pretty bad starting first basemen (think Travis Lee or Jeff Conine or Doug Mientkiewicz), but the overall standard of competition is very high.

I suspect the reason for this stems from the fact that almost anybody can play first base. Teams sometimes use first base as a dumping ground when the roster has other problems: let's throw Travis Lee or Ty Wigginton out there ... hopefully he'll hit .270 ... we've got bigger fish to fry. But this solution rarely sticks once a team has the chance to jigger up its roster in the off-season--it's just too easy to find a Erubiel Durazo or a Chris Shelton. Or, you can move your aging third baseman over to first base, and target a solution at the hot corner instead. The work I did on freely available talent last year suggests that it's quite a bit easier to find an adequate first baseman for next to nothing than it is an adequate corner outfielder.

Put differently, perhaps the reason why there's a large difference between the very worst first basemen and an average first baseman is precisely because decent first basemen are so easy to find. When a team settles on an inadequate solution at the position, it's giving up a lot of ground; the cost of making inefficient decisions is high. Not coincidentally, Keith also found that there is a particularly small difference between league-average catchers and replacement-level catchers. Since it's very hard to find someone who can play catcher, in some sense it's more difficult to mess that decision up. It's sort of like this: the difference between the worst meal and an average meal at Chez Panisse is larger than the difference between the worst meal at McDonald's and the average McMorsel.