SB Nation User Blog: SoCalStites

This guy sucks

SoCalStites — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 01:51:12 -0000

This guy sucks

Consistent Inconsistency: We're Not Out of the Woods Yet

SoCalStites — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 22:26:19 -0000

In May of this year, Collin wrote an article titled "Consistent Inconsistency: Why the Jaguars haven’t sustained success." In the article, he talked about the impact Gene Smith will have on the franchise, coming to a conclusion proclaiming:

Welcome to the third era of Jaguars football, an era that will be marked by leadership, frugality, and a team-first mentality. Say good-bye to being consistently… inconsistent.

While I can't say I disagree with that completely, I'm not going to agree with it fully either. Gene is going to usher in this new era, of that I'm sure; however, I believe our Editor-In-Chief may have been a little premature in his declaration.

It has been commonly said throughout Big Cat Country that Jack Del Rio is to blame for an extremely inconsistent tenure as head coach, and that there will be no consistency until he is fired and replaced. It is hard to disprove this, however, it is my opinion that David Garrard is the one creating this perception. It is his erratic play that has cost the Jaguars in important games throughout the last 3+ years.

David Garrard is by no means a terrible quarterback, or one that is not capable of getting the Jaguars to the playoffs. Whoever the young quarterback of the Jaguars' future is, will hopefully receive the opportunity to learn behind a veteran player like David who can teach him the intricacies of being an NFL quarterback. The problem with David is simply that he doesn't not play like a good quarterback on a consistent basis.

The chart above is done by ProFootballFocus.com and shows David's inconsistent year from a game-by-game standpoint. The Jaguars lost in weeks 1, 2, 5, 8, 12, and 14, which just happen to be the 6 worst performances by Garrard of the season. Only in the San Francisco game did he earn a rating over 1.5, and I don't think anyone would describe an 0-4 in the redzone performance as good enough. It's clear that when David plays poorly the Jaguars follow. Here are the charts of some of some of the NFL's elite quarterbacks who all model consistency:

Now before the offensive line starts taking the blame, here are some interesting stats. According to ProFootballFocus's stats, Garrard has seen pressure on 164 of his 476 passes. Under pressure Garrard has thrown 1 interception, with the other 5 coming with no pressure.

In other words, we may have to wait a year or two more before we can officially declare an end to the consistent inconsistency. Until then, expect the unexpected from the Jaguars.

-Adam Stites

NFL.com Video: Colts vs. Jaguars Top 5 Games

SoCalStites — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 03:13:03 -0000

NFL.com Video: Colts vs. Jaguars Top 5 Games

Gotta love #1

Rashean told me yesterday that he's playing Thursday.

SoCalStites — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 22:54:59 -0000

Rashean told me yesterday that he's playing Thursday.

Michael C. Wright's Twitter

David Garrard's Second Shot at 7-5

SoCalStites — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:57:03 -0000

I have a quick trivia question for Jaguar fans. How many times have the Jacksonville Jaguars been 7-5 in franchise history prior to this year?

The answer is only once.

In 2006, the Jaguars defeated the Dolphins to improve their record to 7-5 as they approached the final stretch of games to decide their playoff fate. Byron Leftwich had been lost for the season long before and David Garrard was given the task to lead the team into the postseason.

These 2006 Jaguars were much different than our 2009 Jaguars. The #2 defense in the league coupled with the #10 offense combined for a deadly attack that gave fans hope for a deep run into January or possibly February. However, the last four games of the season included some tough opponents that would not provide a red carpet for the Jaguars to walk down. A group of four teams very similar to the four that the Jaguars will be facing in the next four weeks. The Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots both provided an obvious challenge as they were Super Bowl contenders, while the Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs were hovering around .500, fighting for a wild card berth.

David was given the task to just not screw up. The Jaguars were riding the unstoppable combo of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor. A devastating combo that had the team ranked third in the league in rushing offense. However, screw it up was exactly what David did.

In the first game the Jaguars routed the Colts 44-17 behind 375 yards rushing. The team was officially on the easy track to the playoffs. That was until the team dropped three consecutive games to close out the season.

Against Tennessee, Garrard's 4 turnovers, three of which were returned for long touchdowns. David was so bad that the Titans only needed 34 offensive plays to win. With that loss went all momentum the Colts game had given Jacksonville and the two games showed that. Against Kansas City, David threw yet another interception that was returned for a touchdown and in came Quinn Gray to finish a disappointing season for the Jaguars.

David is facing the same stretch that he painfully limped through just 3 years ago, but this team is much different than it was then. In 2006, the Jaguars rode a powerful rushing attack combined with a suffocating defense. Now in 2009, David will not be given the task to survive, but to actually lead this team to victory. The defense is young and still learning their craft. The rushing game is not what it was due to an aging line paired with rookie tackles. David Garrard will need to take this team to the playoffs on his back.

David Garrard has been given something that many football players never receive, a second chance and an opportunity for redemption.

The Defensive Improvement and the Impact of Rashean Mathis

SoCalStites — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 22:09:03 -0000

(via www.jaguars.com)

During training camp, Jaguar fans made sure to be cautious with their hopes for the 2009 season. It was understood that this was to be a rebuilding year, and that although improvement over the course of the year was what to be expected, the playoffs were not. After all this was a team featuring four rookie starters in week One of the season. Two of those rookies, Derek Cox and Terrance Knighton, were on a defense trying to recover from a poor 2008 season in which the unit finished 21st in the league.

The defense struggled out of the gate, losing a great player in Reggie Hayward, but an improvement has been evident and the fans are seeing it. Charting the team's performance is difficult to get fair results because a hugely valuable player in Rashean Mathis has been missing with finger and groin injuries. This is what the improvement of the defense has looked like while Rashean Mathis has participated:

The black lines are the best fit trend-lines that show the improvement. Most of the improvement has come from the pass defense in this chart. The improvement is very evident and steady.

In the next chart, the performances while Rashean Mathis was inactive. They will be evaluated in the exact same format:

In this chart, the rushing defense is clearly the unit showing improvement, while the passing defense is the one staying even. Now this doesn't mean that Rashean Mathis is, by any means, a hindrance to the growth of the running defense or a poor rush defender. A rational explanation for this is that the opposing offenses were likely attacking the Jaguars' inexperienced secondary and taking rushes away from the offense.

The impact of Rashean Mathis's absence has been very little according to these charts. However, his impact is likely being masked by the improvement of the defensive unit as a whole. What the graphs do show is that it looks like Mathis provides a much more consistent defense for the Jaguars. The defense has been extremely inconsistent with him on the bench.

Make what you will out of the numbers, both with and without Rashean in the lineup. What can't be argued is that the Jaguars defense is improving.

-Adam Stites

Poll

What is the reason for improved Run Defense in Mathis' absence?

The Rise and Fall of Derek Landri

SoCalStites — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 23:11:13 -0000

Who knew that this game would be the pinnacle of Landri's career as a Jaguar

Our De La Salle High School grad count was cut to one today, as Derek Landri was sent to waivers so that James Wyche could be activated to the 53 man roster.

In 2007, Derek was thought to be one of the draft steals, falling all the way to the 5th round despite being mocked as a 3rd or 4th round draft pick. Chris was happy when the Jaguars selected him and he wasn't the only one. Landri quickly showed his worth with a strong preseason performance that earned him a spot on the squad. He didn't see many snaps until the end of the season, but in the last few games he saw a considerably larger amount, culminating in a wild- card matchup against the Steelers.

In the game, Derek put on a show and finished the with a sack and an interception. At that point in time he became one of my favorite Jaguars. I mean, come on, who doesn't like an undersized guy who works his butt off to make things happen.

During the offseason, Landri said he wanted to gain some muscle mass, but still keep his speed which was his biggest asset. Most Jaguar fans expected to see growth out of the young DT, and there was some, but very little. He had an up-and-down season, although he did manage to record 10 QB pressures and 2 sacks. His run stopping ability was still questionable and the weight didn't appear to be enough, but the pass rushing was still there. Derek provided the team with a change of pace DT who could penetrate into the backfield.

Coming into 2009, Landri made the same commitment to gain weight; however, it appears that things did not go as planned. It's difficult to judge his play due to the lack of time he got on the field. The only rationale for his drop-off, would be that Derek gained too much weight and it affected his speed. Without the exceptional speed, Derek is simply not that good of a player. His run support didn't compensate for the lack of pass rush. Couple that with the addition of Terrance Knighton, Atiyyah Ellison and Montavious Stanley, and you see why Landri became the odd man out. He became strictly a situational player.

Yet another Shack Harris draft pick has been purged from the roster by Gene Smith. I was always pulling for Derek Landri to make the step from jar on the shelf, to a good player, and I'll pull for him to find success elsewhere. Good luck Derek and thank you for contributing in the biggest Jacksonville victory of this decade.

-Adam

Poll

What do you think of the decision to waive Landri?

Like it.

65 votes

Hate it,

48 votes

Hate it. But, In Gene We Trust...

241 votes

354 votes | Poll has closed

Jaguars Then & Now: Rookie CB Seasons

SoCalStites — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:47:41 -0000

Beasley, Bryant, Mathis and Cox (pictured left to right)

Derek Cox has struggled at times this season and is thought by some as the weak point in the secondary. However, the skill set is there and the expectation for growth is evident from the fans, as most believe Cox will be an excellent cornerback in the NFL. Derek has started 11 of his first 11 career games in the NFL, a huge accomplishment in its self and he looks to have a bright future ahead of him.

But how does his rookie season compare to those of Jaguars who established themselves as accomplished CBs for the Jaguars franchise? Aaron Beasley was a 3rd round selection out of West Virginia by the Jaguars in the 1996 draft and went on to play 6 seasons for the team before leaving to the Jets in 2002. Fernando Bryant was a 1st round selection in the 1999 draft from Alabama and played 5 years for the franchise before departing for Detroit in 2004. Rashean Mathis was a 2nd round selection in the 2003 draft out of Bethune Cookman and has played for Jacksonville the last 7 years. How does Derek Cox's first 11 games compare to the first 11 games of the franchise's best cornerbacks?

Playing Time:

A decent indicator of a rookie's ability is how often the coaches allow them to play. Obviously there are several factors that could influence a player's playing time that don't involve ability, but as a general rule. A rookie who starts a majority of games in a season has proven to the coaches that he is a better player than the veterans who are competing for the spot.

Beasley: Aaron joined the Jaguars as an All-American in college, but didn't get to see the field until Week 8 of the 1996 season as he backed up veteran Dave Thomas. Beasley's strong play in Week 8 and 9 earned him a starting spot after the Week 10 bye and he started opposite Mickey Washington for the Jaguars in the final 7 games of the season and into the playoffs.

Bryant: Fernando was a 1st round draft pick by the Jaguars and usually that means the player is forced into action much more so than a mid round draft pick. Bryant started Week 1 of the season opposite veteran Aaron Beasley and remained as the starting left cornerback for the entire season racking up impressive stats for a rookie. The two created a tandem that assisted the Jaguars in becoming the 3rd ranked pass defense.

Mathis: Rashean was instantly an impact player for the Jaguars in his first season and was experimented with as kick returner, punt returner, free safety and eventually found his home at cornerback. Jack Del Rio even started the rookie at free safety for 6 games in the season. Through the season Mathis started all 16 games, 6 at free safety and 10 at corner opposite Fernando Bryant.

Cox: Derek was a huge risk by the Gene Smith-run front office when the team traded away a 2nd round selection in 2010 for an additional selection in the 3rd round of 2009 to select Cox with. The magnifying glass was instantly upon the rookie and he earned a starting spot on the team opposite Rashean Mathis. Through the first 11 games of his rookie season, Derek has started all 11.

Tackles:

Tackles can be a deceiving stat for secondary players because often if a cornerback or safety is loading up on tackles, it's very possible that this is due to poor coverage and their man getting open or that other teams are targetting their receiver. However, a high amount of tackles may also indicate that they have the ability to play the run defensively and also make the tackles in the secondary. We've all seen Reggie Nelson show the importance of that.

Beasley: Aaron finished 1996 with 20 tackles and 9 assisted tackles. Through 9 games that's a 2.22 solo tackle and 1 tackle assist per game average.

Bryant: Fernando finished 1999 with 68 tackles and 38 assisted tackles. Through 16 games that's a 4.25 solo tackle and 2.38 tackle assist per game average.

Mathis: Rashean finished 2003 with 71 tackles and 10 assisted tackles. Through 16 games that's a 4.44 solo tackle and 0.63 tackle assist per game average.

Cox: Derek has 41 tackles and 9 assisted tackles so far in 2009. Through 11 games that's a 3.73 solo tackle and 0.82 tackle assist per game average.

I found it interesting and noteworthy that both Rashean Mathis and Fernando Bryant had their career highs in single season tackling during their rookie campaigns.

Interceptions:

The obvious glamour statistic for any player in the secondary is the interception count. If a player manages to rack up enough interceptions in a season, they are put in the pro bowl, it's as simple as that.

Beasley: Aaron recorded his first career interception in week 14 of the '96 season against the Bengals and finished the season with only one interception. Although in the playoffs he recorded one more during the AFC championship against the Patriots.

Bryant: Fernando recorded his first career interception in week 2 of the '99 season against the Panthers and finished the season with two interceptions. During the playoffs he recorded an additional interception during the AFC championship against the Titans.

Mathis: Rashean recorded his first career interception in week 1 of the '03 season against the Panthers and finished the season with two interceptions. The Jaguars did not make the playoffs that year.

Cox: Derek recorded his first career interception in week 1 of the '09 season against the Colts and recorded another interception against Tennessee week 4. Through the first 11 weeks, Derek has 2 interceptions.

Summary:

I find it interesting that the careers of these cornerbacks all overlap. Bryant was drafted and played opposite Beasley before eventually taking over his spot as the #1 corner for Jacksonville. Then Mathis was drafted and played opposite Bryant before eventually taking over his spot as the #1 corner for Jacksonville. It would appear that Derek Cox is in line to follow in this cycle. The similarities are there and the stats seem to indicate that the Jaguars have a future star cornerback in Derek Cox.

Joe Zelenka signed by the Falcons

SoCalStites — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:19:07 -0000

Joe Zelenka signed by the Falcons

Good for Joey Z and good for Mike Smith. I'm still a member of the fan club.

Jacksonville@San Francisco - The View from the Stadium

SoCalStites — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:59:41 -0000

Well, I've only been to two Jaguar games in my life and neither one was a win. I guess this was sort of what I had expected when I first got the tickets, but the last 3 weeks gave me a hope that the Jaguars just couldn't fulfill. I'll definitely try to see them on the East coast next time, because I'm really wasting a lot of money to see the inept team that is the Pacific Time Zone Jacksonville Jaguars. On Sunday, the Jaguars were basically terrible in every aspect of the game besides stopping the run.

I can't sit here and say that the Jaguars were good at running the ball in San Francisco when they simply didn't run the ball. Early in the game, when the Jags did run the ball they would do these stretch plays sideways rather than run between the tackles. I'm really not understanding what the coaching staff saw on tape that made them think that would work. Did they really think that Patrick Willis, Manny Lawson and co. wouldn't be able to burst the gaps on those plays? When the runs between the guards finally started coming, MJD was busting off 6 and 7 yarders, but the Niners had jumped out to a 2 or 3 score lead.

It's also very frustrating for me to watch a team get in 2nd, 3rd and even 4th and short situations, only to pass the ball. Dirk, if you're not going to allow MJD to punch it one yard forward like he has proven time and again that he can do, at least allow David to lower his head and move the pile. To be honest, I don't trust David with much; however a QB sneak for one yard is something that I know he can do and he almost makes it look easy.

That's why on a 3rd & goal from the 3 late in the game I was astonished to see the Jags come out in a shotgun-4 WR set. The only rationale for this set up had to be a QB sneak from David. Spread out the defense and go straight up the gut. At the very least they'll get closer for a 4th & goal attempt. Instead the play was a quick slant mess of a play with MJD basically getting in the way of the play. This was followed up by a field goal attempt that surprised me and the 49er fans around me who also felt we should've gone for it. Unfortunately Scobee missed it, but who really cared at that point anyway?

It's embarrassing that one of the only chances I had to cheer was when Scobee made a chip shot field goal from the middle of the field. Points! was my yell when the kick went through. At least this isn't as bad as Seattle was my thought at the time. Well...it was. Let me remind you that the Jaguars had missed opportunities, yes, but the 49ers also missed out on chances to score points. A San Francisco linebacker had the easiest pick six in his life fall straight between his arms.

Now I know this rant of a post has been nothing but pessimism so far, so I'll try to lighten the mood a bit. The Jaguars are still in good shape for the playoffs and there are plenty of games left for the Jags to make it up. Lucky for the Jaguars, barring a matchup with the Chargers in the playoffs, that's it for their west coast travels. Now I just read Vic's in game blog to see his opinion about the first field goal miss by Scobee and he said there appeared to be a good hold. On Scobee's second miss he just lowered his head in disappointment, but on the first miss he raised his arms to the holder and Podlesh appeared to raise his arms in a "I don't know what just happened" way. There appeared to be some confusion between the two, so I had assumed that there was a bad snap or hold.

My players of the game for the Jaguars are John Henderson and Terrance Knighton. The middle of the defensive line was a brick wall for Frank Gore and he couldn't get anything started between the two mammoths. When the 49er fans would yell for Gore to get the ball, I would too because that's the only shot we had at stopping the offense.

Now I definitely took a healthy dose of haggling from the fans for my jersey, but the Niner fans were really nothing intimidating at all. For a team with a sell out streak for a decade or two, the crowd was a late arrival and early departure group that never really got loud. The thing that surprised me was the amount of Jaguar fans. What I presume is that the fans there were like myself. California Jaguar fans who take took the rare opportunity to see the Jaguars in state. The last time the Jaguars played a game in California was January of 2005. I sat in a section that spent a quarter and a half trying to start a wave only to fizzle out 2 sections later. It really got annoying listening to the guy at the bottom of the section countdown 3,2,1 at least 50 times and I'm honestly not exaggerating.

I apologize to Terry for the lateness of this post. Usually he has his view from the stadiums up about 3 hours after game time, but I went straight to Oakland for my 12 hour Greyhound back home. Unfortunately Greyhounds don't pick up the best internet connection.

Via Michael Wright's Twitter account - I'm in a teal MJD jersey leaning over the rail between the security guard and the Patrick Willis fan.