SB Nation User Blog: SouthernCub

Where we are compared to last year offensively...

SouthernCub — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:51:19 -0000

With all the talk about trimester grades and whatnot, I thought I'd take a look at things relative to last year. Some of this should be fairly obvious, but with so many faces in different places, maybe it'll be interesting. I'm comparing last year's full-season totals to the projected totals at this point. Obviously projections are likely to be wrong, but they'll give us some idea of what we've done so far compared to last year. Caveat: the count stats will clearly depend somewhat on who's playing and the spot in the batting order. But the slash stats allow for a good comparison, and to some degree so do the count stats.

C:
last year: 599 AB, 80 R, 170 H, 26 HR, 93 RBI, .284/.353/.482 (.836 OPS)
this year: 558 AB, 51 R, 126 H, 12 HR, 60 RBI, .226/.341/.323 (.663 OPS)

1B:
last year: 662 AB, 102 R, 196 H, 23 HR, 97 RBI, .296/.365/.480 (.845 OPS)
this year: 630 AB, 75 R, 162 H, 24 HR, 93 RBI, .257/.336/.433 (.769 OPS)

2B:
last year: 619 AB, 97 R, 178 H, 17 HR, 91 RBI, .300/.378/.458 (.836 OPS)
this year: 582 AB, 66 R, 123 H, 6 HR, 39 RBI, .211/.277/.299 (.576 OPS)

3B:
last year: 619 AB, 110 R, 175 H, 32 HR, 129 RBI, .283/.372/.519 (.891 OPS)
this year: 597 AB, 54 R, 159 H, 24 HR, 117 RBI, .266/.339/.442 (.781 OPS)

SS:
last year: 656 AB, 95 R, 199 H, 2 HR, 53 RBI, .303/.379/.364 (.744 OPS)
this year: 645 AB, 102 R, 186 H, 18 HR, 69 RBI, .288/.353/.447 (.799 OPS)

LF:
last year: 673 AB, 114 R, 190 H, 35 HR, 109 RBI, .282/.348/.508 (.856 OPS)
this year: 702 AB, 114 R, 165 H, 42 HR, 81 RBI, .235/.300/.470 (.770 OPS)

CF:
last year: 587 AB, 95 R, 170 H, 23 HR, 101 RBI, .290/.374/.484 (.858 OPS)
this year: 603 AB, 102 R, 183 H, 21 HR, 87 RBI, .303/.391/.507 (.899 OPS)

RF:
last year: 603 AB, 100 R, 151 H, 15 HR, 71 RBI, .250/.350/.381 (.731 OPS)
this year: 588 AB, 87 R, 150 H, 24 HR, 78 RBI, .255/.362/.418 (.780 OPS)

We're getting a LOT less from catcher, 1B, 2B, 3B, and LF. We're getting better production from SS, CF and RF, but not nearly enough to offset the other positions.

Some of this is obvious: Soto has struggled, Lee had a terrible start but is bouncing back, Fontenot/Scales/Blanco/Miles have not matched DeRosa/Fontenot, Ramirez has been hurt, and Soriano has been slumping since May. Interestingly, the edge in CF is small, but just as interestingly we've gotten better production in RF in spite of Bradley's struggles.

Sorry for the long post. Hopefully you all find it worthwhile and illustrative.

P.S. The stats come from espn.com's team batting stats page using the filter options for position and year. For example, here are the current C stats for 2009 (which I then multiply by 3 to get a full-season projection):

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=runs&split=78&group=8&season=2009&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg

Bradley to return tomorrow (for those who wanted to DL him today)

SouthernCub — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 01:31:08 -0000

Bradley to return tomorrow (for those who wanted to DL him today)

Regarding the new Dempster plan...

SouthernCub — Mon, 21 May 2007 13:59:15 -0000

I'm wary of the talk of Dempster as a starter. He has been just fine as a closer. His work at the back of the pen has not been the reason we've struggled this year. Furthermore, moving him to the rotation would in NO WAY be an improvement on the rotation. Guzman has been solid as a starter 3.52 ERA. That's better than anything Dempster ever did, and it's MUCH better than most of the work Dempster did as a starter. I see no benefit in making a downgrade in the starting rotation to make a change at a position that has been solid for us this year. I'm glad that either Lou figured that out or that he never really considered that.

It appears that Guzman is the heir apparent. If that's the case, I like the idea of easing Guzman in. I especially like it considering that I think Dempster's as good as gone this winter as a free agent. If Guzman is the pegged "closer of the future," then it's not a bad idea to have him start to get familiar with the role. Perhaps have him be the 8th inning guy and occasional closer this year.

The question I have is what they're going to ultimately do with Marmol. Marmol doesn't have the control to be a reliever. His stuff is electric, but he has to get better command. I think he's better suited in the rotation. If Guzman is the next closer, I really don't like the idea of having Marmol in "get out of jam" duty. I can envision him walking in a few runs and adding fuel to the flames, rather than putting out a fire.

Compounding the question is the status of Zambrano. It's looking less and less likely, with the lack of clarity in the ownership situation, that Zambrano will be back next year. That leaves at least one hole in the rotation, and that's assuming that Lou will be comfortable with a rotation including 3 lefties. Theoretically, we'd need one of Guzman or Marmol to step in as the 5th starter, because our right-handed starting pitching depth drops off to AA again after those two.

I really hope the team doesn't have visions of Prior stepping back in in 2008. Meanwhile, what happened to Mateo?