SBNation.com User Blog: SouthernCub

What do you think the chances are that the Bulls decide to tank this season?

SouthernCub — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 21:42:33 -0000

Please note that this is not in any way an exciting idea. It's just a point of discussion and an expansion of a previous FanPost with the rumor that Chicago might consider trading Deng or Noah. Is it possible that the Bulls decide to fully dump this season (trading Deng AND amnestying Boozer) knowing that Rose will miss most of it? Follow me after the jump to discuss further.

Here's what we know:

1. Rose is out until January/February at the earliest. And rushing him back likely puts him at risk for re-injury.

2. Reinsdorf is decidedly not a fan of paying the luxury tax, especially not for a team that may struggle to make the playoffs.

3. The Bulls, even without Watson, Asik, Korver, and Brewer, will be within $2 million of the luxury tax this coming season. That means no meaningful free agents can sign with the Bulls unless the team is willing to go into the tax (and even then the options are limited). And without Watson, we likely have a minimum-salary starting PG until Rose returns.

4. The Bulls don't have a great draft position, so it's unlikely that they'll have more than a reserve caliber player coming in from the draft.

5. None of the remaining Bulls under contract are capable of creating offense off the dribble, and only one (Boozer) remotely resembles a go-to scorer. The rest rely entirely on their teammates to create shots for them or second chance points.

Given these facts, it's going to be tough sledding just to make the playoffs next year. So my question is this: is it possible that the Bulls amnesty Boozer AND trade Deng with the plan of missing the playoffs this coming season? That approach would give us a lottery pick this year, a lottery pick next year, and plenty of cap space after next season to acquire a free agent in the 2013 offseason. And maybe even Mirotic joins the team as well.

So the 2013-2014 season would have a healthy Rose, SG and SF from two lottery picks and/or a big-time free agent in the 2013 offseason, Gibson/Mirotic, Noah, Mirotic/Gibson, Butler, a mid-level exception at backup PG or SG/SF, and some veteran's minimum salary guys to fill out the rest of the bench roles. That's a potentially terrific starting 5 with a solid young backup PF, a decent defender at backup SG/SF, another quality veteran or two (perhaps another SG/SF with some offense?). And that team isn't threatening the luxury tax for a few more years. Add in the Charlotte pick at some point (likely after the 2013-2014 season) and it's a continual reload for a decent run of 3-4 years.

Do you think the front office would actually go that route? Would you be willing to suffer through an awful season next year to see such a plan come to fruition?

Whither Abner Abreu?

SouthernCub — Thu, 12 Apr 2012 03:04:17 -0000

There was a bit of dialogue for a while regarding Abner Abreu (the prospect that we got for Fukudome). Some compared him to Soriano for his lankiness and athleticism. But he was incredibly raw and struggled at A+ ball for a few years. I was looking at some minor league box scores the other day and his name came to mind. I noticed that he doesn't appear on any of the rosters of our minor league affiliates. He also doesn't appear to be on anyone's team right now. At the same time, I can't find anything stating how/if he was let go by the Cubs. Can someone provide input?

Where we are compared to last year offensively...

SouthernCub — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 13:51:19 -0000

With all the talk about trimester grades and whatnot, I thought I'd take a look at things relative to last year. Some of this should be fairly obvious, but with so many faces in different places, maybe it'll be interesting. I'm comparing last year's full-season totals to the projected totals at this point. Obviously projections are likely to be wrong, but they'll give us some idea of what we've done so far compared to last year. Caveat: the count stats will clearly depend somewhat on who's playing and the spot in the batting order. But the slash stats allow for a good comparison, and to some degree so do the count stats.

C:
last year: 599 AB, 80 R, 170 H, 26 HR, 93 RBI, .284/.353/.482 (.836 OPS)
this year: 558 AB, 51 R, 126 H, 12 HR, 60 RBI, .226/.341/.323 (.663 OPS)

1B:
last year: 662 AB, 102 R, 196 H, 23 HR, 97 RBI, .296/.365/.480 (.845 OPS)
this year: 630 AB, 75 R, 162 H, 24 HR, 93 RBI, .257/.336/.433 (.769 OPS)

2B:
last year: 619 AB, 97 R, 178 H, 17 HR, 91 RBI, .300/.378/.458 (.836 OPS)
this year: 582 AB, 66 R, 123 H, 6 HR, 39 RBI, .211/.277/.299 (.576 OPS)

3B:
last year: 619 AB, 110 R, 175 H, 32 HR, 129 RBI, .283/.372/.519 (.891 OPS)
this year: 597 AB, 54 R, 159 H, 24 HR, 117 RBI, .266/.339/.442 (.781 OPS)

SS:
last year: 656 AB, 95 R, 199 H, 2 HR, 53 RBI, .303/.379/.364 (.744 OPS)
this year: 645 AB, 102 R, 186 H, 18 HR, 69 RBI, .288/.353/.447 (.799 OPS)

LF:
last year: 673 AB, 114 R, 190 H, 35 HR, 109 RBI, .282/.348/.508 (.856 OPS)
this year: 702 AB, 114 R, 165 H, 42 HR, 81 RBI, .235/.300/.470 (.770 OPS)

CF:
last year: 587 AB, 95 R, 170 H, 23 HR, 101 RBI, .290/.374/.484 (.858 OPS)
this year: 603 AB, 102 R, 183 H, 21 HR, 87 RBI, .303/.391/.507 (.899 OPS)

RF:
last year: 603 AB, 100 R, 151 H, 15 HR, 71 RBI, .250/.350/.381 (.731 OPS)
this year: 588 AB, 87 R, 150 H, 24 HR, 78 RBI, .255/.362/.418 (.780 OPS)

We're getting a LOT less from catcher, 1B, 2B, 3B, and LF. We're getting better production from SS, CF and RF, but not nearly enough to offset the other positions.

Some of this is obvious: Soto has struggled, Lee had a terrible start but is bouncing back, Fontenot/Scales/Blanco/Miles have not matched DeRosa/Fontenot, Ramirez has been hurt, and Soriano has been slumping since May. Interestingly, the edge in CF is small, but just as interestingly we've gotten better production in RF in spite of Bradley's struggles.

Sorry for the long post. Hopefully you all find it worthwhile and illustrative.

P.S. The stats come from espn.com's team batting stats page using the filter options for position and year. For example, here are the current C stats for 2009 (which I then multiply by 3 to get a full-season projection):

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=runs&split=78&group=8&season=2009&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg