OK, we’re coming down to the wire. The draft is a scant two weeks away. The KC brain trust has some decisions to make. Is DeCastro the guy we want? What do we do if Richardson falls to #11? What about Tannehill? In my opinion, our best option entails machinating the draft so as to select Weeden as a value pick. Weeden reminds me of a QB drafted back in ’91 by the Falcons, in the second round. This QB’s name was Brett Favre.

Many Chiefs’ fans want to wait until next year to take a QB in the first round. Their reasoning is that there will be anywhere from four to six excellent QBs available. I see two problems with this line of reasoning; first, with Cassel and the team he will have around him, the Chiefs should win 9 or 10 games this year (Cassel isn’t as bad as Jamie Dukes thinks; he just isn’t a good QB). Cassel won’t lose games for the Chiefs, but he won’t win games, either. ..but I digress; back to the plan of drafting a QB in ’13, we should be drafting somewhere in the 20’s. Considering that there could be as many as seven teams looking for a QB; Buffalo, Arizona (if Kolb doesn’t get things going), Jacksonville, SF (if Smith is, as some suspect, a one-year wonder), Seattle (if Flynn turns out to be over-rated), Minnesota (if they come to the realization that they reached too far for Ponder), and Miami (if Cleveland jumps up to take Tannehill this year), drafting in the 20’s may well be too low to land one of the top QB’s. The problem with the plan is that trading up usually is rather expensive. Secondly, maybe there won’t be that many excellent QBs next year. One or two of the highly-rated QBs will have off-seasons, and their warts will become visible. "Never put off until tomorrow what you can do today" said that well-known football analyst, Ben Franklin.

This is why I think we need to move on Weeden this year. Because we are drafting relatively high, we could well have several offers to trade down in the first round (we could trade up in the second round; that has the advantage of denying the opposition a chance to counter the move, but we’d be losing draft picks, not gaining draft picks). Whether we trade up or down, I think we need to position ourselves somewhere between #30 and #35. I’m assuming we need to be ahead of Cleveland in the second round. Of course, Cleveland could throw a monkey wrench into the plan if they used their second pick in round 1 (#22) to take Weeden. I just don’t see Pioli taking Weeden that high; it wouldn’t be a "value pick".

To paraphrase Shakespeare, I come to praise Pioli, not to castigate him. Two words come to mind when discussing Mr. Pioli; confidence, and credibility. Currently, Mr. Pioli receives high marks in the confidence category. He’s done what it takes to make this team competitive on a high level. However, there may still be work to do in the credibility category.

When Mr. Pioli took over the GM duties for the Chiefs four years ago, the franchise was in a state of disarray. Mr. Pioli brought with him great expectations. The Chiefs would be rebuilt in a manner similar to the New England Patriots. Since Mr. Pioli was one of the architects of the Patriot team, it was expected that he’d build the team the same way the Patriots were built. Fan confidence in the immediate future of the Chiefs skyrocketed.

The first thing he did was hire a coaching staff. Because Mr. Pioli was hired after the season by the Hunt family, and because Mr. Pioli took his time analyzing the state of the team, the Chiefs were a little late in entering the coaching carousel. Finally, Todd Haley was hired to be the HC. Again, due to the lateness of the operation, and the fact that Haley wanted to be his own OC, the coaching staff took too long to complete. This doesn’t seem to be Mr. Pioli’s fault. Shortly after getting the coaching staff in place, Mr. Pioli made his first big move, trading for QB Matt Cassel, the back-up to Tom Brady in New England. This trade changed the face of four franchises, The Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos, and Bears. The trade was a necessity. Mr. Pioli inherited three QB’s from the previous regime, Huard, Thigpen, and Croyle. Croyle was the only one who looked the part of a QB, but brought injury issues into the equation. Cassel brought much-needed stability to the team, allowing Mr. Pioli to set to building a competitive roster.

Some of Mr. Pioli’s moves have been widely questioned, such as drafting Tyson Jackson in the first round, rather than trading down, but most of Mr. Pioli’s moves have proven to be positive. However, until this off-season, Mr. Pioli has relied mostly on the draft to rebuild the roster. His previous off-season free agents have included mainly spot players. Ryan Lilja probably is the main player to be added via free agency until this month. Boom! All of a sudden Mr. Pioli jumps into free agency with a passion! He signs Stanford Routt as a preemptive strike in the Carr negotiations, and then, when a quality RT comes available, he locks up Winston. Add to the mix a big RB (Hillis) and a quality TE (Boss), and Mr. Pioli has significantly improved the roster. Add two or three impact rookies from this year’s draft, and Mr. Pioli has raised the fans’ confidence level to probably its highest level since the first few months of Mr. Pioli’s tenure. Mr. Hunt, congratulations! It appears you have a top-tier GM!

Unfortunately, there is one significant piece of the puzzle missing, that Mr. Pioli has seemingly neglected. The team does not appear to have a quarterback capable of leading us to a championship. This is the crux of Mr. Pioli’s credibility issue. The fan base has become increasingly disenchanted with Cassel’s performance. It doesn’t help that no sports commentator has given Cassel kudos for being an excellent QB. On the contrary, he is frequently mentioned in negative connotations (Dukes isn’t the only commentator to suggest Cassel is holding the team back). In a move that actually may have backfired on him, Mr. Pioli signed Kyle Orton to replace the injured Cassel last season. Orton’s performance tended to highlight Cassel’s deficiencies, and galvanize fan opinion. At the scouting combine last month, Mr. Pioli publicly acknowledged the issue, stating that Cassel would have competition. Unless the Chiefs draft Tannehill or Weeden next month, most fans are wondering exactly where the afore-mentioned competition will come from. For the sake of Mr. Pioli, and more importantly, for the sake of the team and the fan base, I hope Mr. Pioli knows something about Brady Quinn that we fans don’t . Otherwise, Mr. Pioli will continue to wrestle with his credibility issue.

OK. Enough of the scholarly dissertation. What do you fans really think? Pioli has three choices in front of him. He can tell the fan base that Cassel can win if he is surrounded by a strong team. He can tell the fan base that Cassel can be successful, but he needs to improve some segments of his game. He can say "Cassel’s our guy until we find someone better." In my opinion, he needs to do what the U.S. did in Viet Nam. Declare victory, and get out. The Cassel trade was successful. Now it is time to move on.

Wow! I just finished reading and contemplating KC Phenom’s research piece, "NFL Draft Research Series, Pt 1, QB’s". The evidence doesn’t lie. It would seem the best chance the Chiefs have of climbing to the top tier of the league involves selecting a QB early in the first round. That will prove difficult, since the new regime, Pioli, et.al., have turned the team into a middle-of-the-league team, apparently approaching their full potential. So how do we put ourselves into a position to select a QB with one of the early picks in the draft?

As far as this year’s draft goes, things don’t look especially promising. First, it appears there is serious competition for the available draft pick. Cleveland covets the available choice, so does Washington. We’d not only have to match their offers, we’d have to beat it, significantly, with something St. Louis wants. I’m thinking that we need to make an offer of current players coupled with draft picks to even get consideration. Take a look at these names; Tamba Hali, Brandon Flowers, Derrick Johnson, Dwayne Bowe. These are the players on our roster who most widely would be viewed as "stars". We’d need to offer at least two of these players, plus our first round picks this year and in ’13, and possibly a 2nd round pick. In exchange, we’d get a 50% chance at getting our "franchise QB". Of course, we’d have to figure out how to replace the players we’d lose in the deal.

Let’s look at how we could replace those players. First, Tamba Hali. Luckily, Justin Houston seems to have arrived. He should only get better, providing he can stay away from controlled substances. Andy Studebaker and Cameron Sheffield would most likely fight it out for the OLB position opposite Houston. As for Derrick Johnson, I don’t know. Demario Williams? Brandon Siler? Cory Greenwood? Hmmmm. Then there is Brandon Flowers. Considering that it appears that we are already losing Brandon Carr, losing Flowers would be possibly the most difficult player to replace adequately. How about a tandem of Routt and Arenas? Bowe might be the easiest to replace, even though I wouldn’t want to lose him (it’s been decades since we’ve had a truly excellent WR). I just hope he wouldn’t be replaced by Moss or Ochocinco. It would be advisable to look at how well New Orleans did after they traded their entire draft for Ricky Williams. Better yet, just think about how well our roster improved during the Vermeil era, when so many high draft picks were wasted. Trading picks for a player who (if we interpret Phenom’s data correctly) has roughly a 50% chance of success is risky business, indeed.

Perhaps our interests could best be served by not going after a "franchise" QB this year, but rather next year. Use all available resources to build a foundation through the draft and free agency this year. Sign Bowe immediately. Then put the non-exclusive tag on Carr. Set compensation at a second or third round pick. Sign Mario Williams or Calias Campbell as free agents. Sign a free agent running back. Sign Orton or Campbell to compete with Cassel in camp. Sit on the loser until some team loses their QB to injury, then trade our #2 guy. Draft a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round (Weeden or Foles) just to see if we get lucky. After the draft, make every effort to trade Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. Jamal Charles? We can’t trade him until he is active (as in after the first preseason game). If we can pick up a RB in free agency or in the draft this year, we could/should wait until the 4th week of next season, and target two or three teams who haven’t gotten off to good starts, and offer JC to them for their ’13 first round pick. I suspect GM’s might be a little more agreeable to parting with a first round pick to try to salvage a season, rather than after the season, when they can use that pick to choose the guy of their choice. Stockpile ’13 draft picks. Then, a year from now make every effort (trade every pick if necessary) to move into a favorable drafting position.

Either plan sounds so simple. Oh, that it were so simple. I’m positive that every franchise has four or six flunkies whose sole job is to research the opposition’s blog sites. If they see something interesting, they pass it on up the organizational ladder. Hence they know what we have learned. In other words, teams who have the high picks know the value of those picks, and will be exceedingly reticent to part with those picks.

I’m going to examine two slightly related historical events. Both concern a pair of NFL QB’s. Hopefully, there is something to be learned from each episode.

The Chiefs currently have two veteran QBs on their roster, Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton. The Chiefs are going to need to make a decision on which QB is best suited to be the starting QB. Hopefully, Mr. Pioli will have studied his NFL and Chiefs’ history, and learned something about such decisions. I assume he has already pumped Jim Zorn and the other coaches as to the strengths and weaknesses of our two guys.

The first story I want to relate involves a QB, one Drew Brees. He was originally drafted by the Chargers. His rookie season was ’01. By ’04 he was well established; in fact, he played in the Pro Bowl in ’04. In the meantime, The Chargers drafted Phillip Rivers. Brees was disgruntled, and played out his option , and signed with the Saints after the ’05 season.

The second story involves a QB named Rich Gannon. Gannon began his career with the Vikes, and then spent a season with the Redskins, before signing with the Chiefs in ’95. In ’97, Chiefs’ GM Peterson traded with the 49’ers for QB Elvis Grbac. Gannon and Grbac jockeyed for the starting QB position for a couple of seasons, before Gannon became disenchanted with the situation in Kansas City (Grbac was seemingly the front office’s “Golden Boy), and moved west to the Raiders.

One might ask what value these two long-past episodes have for the Chiefs and us loyal fans? I wrote this cautionary tale for the benefit of both us loyal fans, and Mr. Pioli and the Chiefs’ Braintrust. Do you suppose the Chargers’ fans might wish the Chargers had been led to the Super Bowl by Drew Brees? How about us Chiefs’ fans? Wouldn’t it have been significantly more enjoyable to have watched Gannon win a Super Bowl wearing Red, and Hey! Wouldn’t it have been enjoyable to have watched Grbac go to the Raiders, struggle for three years, and then be gone from the game?

The Chiefs’ braintrust has to be very careful in how they handle our QB situation. I would hate to see Orton go to Miami, or Chicago, or wherever, and win a Super Bowl, while we kept Cassel & rejoiced in our mediocrity. Now, I could be wrong. Perhaps Cassel will be the one to win a Super Bowl. Maybe Orton will only last a couple of seasons. My point is, we should make every effort to sign Orton. Cassel is untradeable until camp starts. Let Cassel & Orton fight it out in camp. Keep the best QB. If you can, trade whoever is #2. Please, Romeo, please Mr. Pioli; get it right this time!

Continue reading this post »

Before I made an emotional decision on which QB I’d like to see behind center next year, I did my diligent research. I had available the "NFL Replay" recordings of the Chiefs-Chargers game (one of Cassel’s best of this season) of 10/31, and the Chiefs-Packers game, (Orton’s debut), as well as the "Quick Cut" of the Chiefs’ final game vs. the Donks. Cassel displays a serious case of "happy feet". Before he delivers a pass, he bounces around like a school boy. I’m not talking about one forward hop, I’m talking about three or more hops. The only times I did not see the hops were on three quick passes in the flat to Dex, and one ball thrown off the back foot to Breaston. To be fair, I saw Orton hop on two occasions, also. In general, however, Orton’s throwing motion is more compact; he targets a receiver, the arm goes back and the ball is gone. On a game earlier in the season (perhaps the first Charger’s game) I heard an announcer comparing Cassel to the opposition’s QB. The announcer said that the opposition QB could throw the ball through a porthole at 30 yards, but at 30 yards Cassel could only throw the ball through a window. Sounds kind of cheesy, right? In the Donks’ game, on 1/1/12, Orton threw two passes to Bowe that had to be perfectly thrown. Both were. On one up on the right sideline, Orton threw the ball just over Baily, where Bowe at the apogee of his jump, just was able to get both hands on the ball, and come down with both feet in bounds. That was throwing a ball through a porthole (incidentally, no "happy feet")! In the Raiders’ game, Orton’s last completion, to Copper, was also thrown in the only place the defender could not defend it. The point I’m making is that Orton’s accuracy is superior to Cassel’s. Orton’s arm strength seems to be superior to Cassel’s. I can best illustrate this by comparing one pass each made. In the Chargers’ game, Cassel threw a 39 yd TD pass to Baldwin. Cassel looked like a school boy, hopping forward twice in his throwing motion. The ball arrived at the right place, at the right time, but with apparently more effort. In the Denver game, Orton targeted Baldwin again for a 40 yd play. His throwing motion was more compact; his arm went back, back foot planted, arm came forward, ball gone. The ball was on a line, and was on target. Next, let’s talk about clutch play, engineering drives when the game was on the line. First, in the Chargers’ game, Cassel had one clutch opportunity, in OT. He got the job done, with only one difficult play, a pass over the middle to Breaston, thrown off the back foot. Three completions were thrown in the right flat to Dex. Orton had only one near-clutch opportunity in the GB game, after GB had gone ahead 7-6. Orton did respond with three consecutive scoring drives to put the game out of reach. In the Raiders’ game, Orton defined the word "clutch". The Raiders took the lead 13-6 with 2:09 left in the game. Orton drove the team 80 yds to tie the score. Our D stopped the Raiders, and we got the ball back with only 18 seconds to go, 2 TO’s, and around 35 yds to go for FG range. Orton completed two consecutive passes to put us in range. It isn’t his fault that we couldn’t handle Seymour. There was no "come from behind" necessary in Denver. Considering the coaching change and the clearing up of the communication between QB & coaches, these were the only areas I could evaluate that were clearly QB-controlled.

It is starting to look like we won’t get a shot at one of the top QB’s in April’s draft. Furthermore, the Chiefs will be good enough to draft in the bottom third of the draft in the forseeable future, so drafting a franchise QB would appear to be a moot point. What are the ramifications of not having a franchise-level QB?

I did a little research. I took a look at the last twenty Super Bowl QB’s, both winners and losers. I tried to see just how important a top tier QB is to a franchise. Here’s what I found out: 65% of the Super Bowl teams had generally recognized “good” QB’s:

Aikman Young Farve

Elway Brady Roethlisberger

Warner Kelly P. Manning

E. Manning Brees Rogers

15% of the winning Super Bowl teams had average QB’s: Rypien, Dilfer, Johnson. 55% of the losing teams had average QB’s: Humphries, O’Donnell, Bledsole, Chandler, McNair, Collins, Hasselbeck, Griese (Jr.), Gannon, Delhomme, and McNabb (other losing QB’s were from the list of “good” QB’s). 85% of the Super Bowl champions had “good” QB’s (from the list above). Another key stat is the fact that no average QB played in more than one Super Bowl. Conversely, other than possibly Cutler or Ryan, there are no current “good” QB’s who haven’t been in a Super Bowl. The jury is still out on Cutler, and Ryan isn’t yet at his prime. Someone will probably suggest that my numbers don’t add up. If you are trying to check my math, remember that many of the recent Super Bowls featured “good” QB’s on each team. What conclusions can be drawn from this data? The thing that jumps out at me is that teams who win consistently have “good” QB’s. It is possible for a team with an average QB to get to the Super Bowl, but it is a “one & done” thing. Obviously, more research is called for. How about draft positon for “good’ QB’s over the past 20 years? Also, average ability grades for other positions on Super Bowl teams.

Now, for the Chiefs’ situation; the question is, how should we classify Cassel? As of yet, I’ve seen no evidence justifying classifying him as a “good” QB. True, he’s gotten precious help only from Weiss and, now, Zorn. How much more time do we give him to become a “good” QB? I would suggest that, at best, he gets one more year. He’s got the receivers he needs. The running game could be better. He could use a RT. An OC would also be helpful. Nevertheless, it is approaching “put up or sit down” time, unless Orton lights it up in the next four games. Then, it’s just “sit down” time for Cassel.

I’m going to throw in one tenuously related item. Fresno State U. just fired long-time football coach Pat Hill. FSU has a good looking soph QB named Derek Carr (as in David Carr). David Carr has said publically that his little brother is much further along than he was at that stage of his career. Now, I doubt that Derek will choose to come out after his soph season, but it would be wise for the Chiefs’ brain trust to keep an eye on things in Fresno. If he did choose to come out, he’d be a very good gamble for a 3rd or 4th round pick.

It’s no secret to loyal Chiefs’ fans that there is trouble in River City. It seemed that fan expectations were on the rise after our four game winning streak. I’m afraid many of us misinterpreted this streak. We beat the Vikes, who, to date, have a whopping 2 wins, the Colts, who have two fewer wins than the Vikes, the Raiders, who were right in the midst of a QB crisis, and the Chargers, who gave us a huge gift. Those four wins were something of a mirage. What in the hell happened?

 

 First, sh** happens. We lose Tony Mo, Berry, and JC in rapid succession. Now Cassel has joined the ranks of the injured. OK. Look at what happened to the Giants. They lost half of their D to injuries. Our "Brain-Trust’s" reaction to the injuries is open to some second-guessing.

 

 Under the category of "You got some "’splainin’ to do", there were some miscalculations and questionable moves made this season. It would appear that Pioli miscalculated how long the lock-out would last this past off-season. As far as I know, the only football-related drills our players took part in during the off-season were one or two days of passing drills for the QB’s & WR’s. Apparently Pioli thought the CBA would be settled early enough for at least one OTA, and a normal start of camp. That didn’t happen. As for Coach Haley, he treated camp in a very lackadaisical manner. That may be why the team sleep-walked through the Bills’ and Lions’ games. They simply seemed to lack focus and concentration. In all fairness, it is possible Cassel was nursing some sore ribs, but that doesn’t explain the rest of the team’s lack of concentration. During the off-season, Pioli made one error of note; when Carr and Leinhart both were free agents; we made no move for either, choosing to go with Stanzi and Palko as our only back-ups at QB. Now we’re going to see how that works out. OT was an area of concern, too. Yet Pioli was unable to sign one of the premier FA OT’s, instead grabbing Gaither after the Raiders passed on him because (according to reports) he failed his physical. He has yet to see significant playing time, while our QB’s have been at the mercy of the opposition’s pass rush. I’m wondering when we might see Gaither?

 

 Next, we need to address a sore point to many of us loyal fans…our OC (yes, I guess we have one). It seems to me that, in the wake of the loss of Tony Mo and JC, that Muir (& I’m assuming Haley) took a reactive approach to formulating game plans. Battle became their new darling. Now, let me say right now that I’m satisfied with Battle’s play. He’s run tough, and his ball security has been good. However, with the injuries to JC and Tony Mo, the talent in our skill positions is strongly centered at WR. Bowe, Breaston, and now Baldwin, should be our main offensive weapons. I suppose that means we should have been passing the ball more. Let me beat the critics of my dissertation to the punch; if we can’t keep the opposition’s pass rushers away from Cassel, we can’t pass the ball. Right? Think back to the Indy game. We kept their DE’s off Cassel by using a 3 step drop & throwing quick passes. Yeah, the D can react to that. We could keep O’Connel or McClain in to help out on five step drops. Oh yeah! What about that guy Gaither? To reiterate, we need a better OC, & Haley needs to leave him alone.

 

 Finally, it is entirely possible that we will end the season with a nine game losing streak. We could well be drafting in the top five, possibly as high as #2. It is likely that a franchise-quality QB will be on the board for us. Will Pioli take him? Bear in mind that he’s already passed on one (Sanchez). I don’t see how Pioli could justify passing on another. With the talent on this roster, we only need to fill two more positions, and this team looks like it should be ready to roll. The only missing piece would be the franchise QB. With Cassel at the helm, barring another rash of injuries, and more strange doings by Haley, it is doubtful that we would get another shot at a franchise-level QB after next April. I know Cassel’s Pioli’s fav, and his big trade to date. The trade that brought Cassel here was a good trade for us. The QB situation had to be stabilized, and Cassel has done that, but Pioli/Haley now need to take the next step. Take the QB in the first round, and then look for an OT and a push rushing DE in the next two rounds.

In this second installment of “Half Empty; Half Full”, we’ll take a look at the Chiefs’ shut-out win over the Raiders. 28-0 sounds like a pretty lop-sided game, and, in fact, the Raiders’ offense was totally ineffective. This was to be expected. The QB position was in a state of flux, and the prep week had been seriously disrupted by the Palmer trade.

28-0 sounds pretty good, but after watching the game for a third time, using stop action & slo-mo, I still see the team as in a state of becoming. I hadn’t planned on  Raider QB’s throwing two TD passes to our guys, or a 64 yd. drive assisted by 30 yds. of penalty yardage.  

It was good to see Baldwin on the field, and he had a nice catch for a first down. The thing is, he should have had three catches, one possibly for a TD. He was targeted six times by my count. In the first quarter, Cassel, on a roll-out, never looked at Baldwin, who was in a seam in the defense, and breaking behind the safeties. It looked like a probable TD, & Cassel only had to throw the ball 30 yds.  Instead, Cassel threw an incompletion to the short receiver.  Cassel also targeted Baldwin (wide open) in the 4th  quarter.  Cassel threw off his back foot, and, after watching the play several times with stop-action, I’ll admit that it is possible that a defender may have gotten a finger on the pass. Regardless, if Cassel puts a little more air under the ball (or doesn’t throw off the back foot), it’s an easy completion.

On the positive side, Cassel was generally crisp with his passes. Bowe continues to look like one of the elite receivers in the league. Breaston is becoming an effective underneath receiver, with the ability to break tackles.

Battle ran tough. I said it last week, and I’ll say it again; if Battle can average 70-80 yds. a game, we can have an effective running game. Our OL generally kept things under control against a good defense. 

Of course, then there was DJ. Words escape me at this point in time. WOW!

All-in-all,  I’m anticipating the SD game with good feelings.

 

The past two or three days have seen a lot of conjecture about what the Raiders’ acquisition of Carson Palmer means to the Chiefs. As a Chiefs’ fan, I can’t worry about what the opposition does off the field, or in games we are not involved in. That being said, Palmer simply lends legitimacy to the QB position in Oakland. Campbell was still a question mark; he was an improvement over Russell, but was he really “the guy”? The Chiefs were in a similar situation 3 years ago. Cassel was brought in to lend stability to a position manned by Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen. In that regard, he has been successful. However, it is time for Cassel to prove that he is indeed “the guy” in KC. With JC out for the season, Cassel has to take the team on his back, much as Rogers did in Green Bay last year.  Cassel will need some help, though.  If Haley/Muir don’t adapt to JC’s loss, Cassel will be shackled.  This year, the Chiefs must change their offensive plan form using the pass to set up the run, to using the run to set up the pass. Jackie Battle won’t have many 100+ yard games, but he can be effective if he can average 70-75 yds. per game. Jones will provide support for Battle. Basically, Battle & Jones must keep the opposition’s defense honest.  McCluster will be most effective as a receiver coming out of the backfield. This should be the season when Cassel either wins over the vast majority of the fan base, or the fan base grudgingly admits that  Cassel isn’t “the guy”, and that positioning ourselves in the draft to pick one of the top QB’s is a necessity.

 

Jon Baldwin must get into the game. It makes no sense not to use your most effective skill players. I’ve seen a couple of explanations (attributed to Haley, justly or unjustly) as to why Baldwin hasn’t been activated. One explanation is that he hasn’t got the experience to consistently be in the right place at the right time, and this could cause Cassel  to throw to a spot, and Baldwin not be there. This makes no sense for Baldwin. If we had just acquired him from another team, it would make sense, but he has been with the Chiefs since camp began. He has been running plays in practice. He has been in offensive team meetings. If he doesn’t know the offense, he shouldn’t have been a first round draft pick. The second explanation bandied about concerns the roster spot, and the effect using an active roster spot for Baldwin would have on ST’s. Hogwash! If one position on the active game roster determines the effectiveness of our ST’s, then there is a whole lot more rebuilding to be done than we think.

 

Another week, another blow-out loss. This team was 10-6 last season! Can three players make this big a difference? I doubt it. I’m sure there are many of us who know exactly what is wrong with the Kansas City Chiefs, or at least think we do.  I’ve got a few ideas.

First, while the team’s record last season was 10-6, the team wasn’t quite as good as the record might indicate. Because of the hoopla surrounding the official re-opening of Arrowhead on opening night last season, the team was emotionally fired up and focused on the task at hand, beating the Chargers. Mother nature lent a hand, supplying rain to slow down the Charger’s passing attack.  The Chiefs were able to exploit the Chargers’ one glaring weakness, their special teams. Dex’s 94 yd. punt return was the difference in the game. The team played over their heads, and rode the emotion of that win for the next 14 weeks. In week 17 of the season, the Raiders came to town with a no-nonsense attitude. They essentially told the Chiefs that if they were going to beat the Raiders, they’d have to do it with someone not named Charles or Bowe. They stacked the box, and doubled Bowe. I’m surprised no one thought of this earlier in the season. The net result was that we scored only one TD, but hey, we’d already clinched the AFC West, so not to worry.  Our other embarrassing loss up to that point came at the hands of the Chargers, who, on a day Cassel didn’t play, physically dominated our OL, and completely harried Croyle. After the loss to the Raiders, we hosted the Ravens in round 1 of the play-offs. The loss was very similar to the week before. Similar game plan, and, for the Chiefs, similar offensive output; one TD in the loss, and so the season ended.  Many fans assumed that the Chiefs were just on the verge of becoming a very good team. Perhaps the team wasn’t quite as good as we fans hoped. After all, we were beating up on other teams who had finished at or near the bottom of their divisions the previous season. Oh well…with another productive off-season we would be stronger, right?

What happened? The first thing that comes to mind, besides the fact that the team may not have been quite as good last year as we fans thought, was the striking chronological convergence over Charlie Weiss’s official announcement that he was leaving the organization, and our offense’s rapid decline. In the Chiefs’ last four meaningful games, they have averaged less than a TD per game. One can only wonder if there is some sort of cause-and-effect thing going on. It is also worth noting that Weiss was replaced as OC by an OL coach. An offensive line coach’s area of concern does not include how to attack the opposition’s entire defensive scheme. Therefore, I’m wondering just what Bill Muir knew that made him the best possible OC candidate.

Then we came to the off-season itself. The draft went as expected. The team went for a WR to help free up Bowe, some interior line help, and some speed at OLB. It is worth noting that OT was not addressed, and NT wasn’t addressed until late in the draft. At the time the logical assumption was that Pioli was waiting for free agency to shore up OT and NT. During the lock-out, many teams held player-run workouts in place of OTAs. As far as I know, the only remotely organized workout held by Chiefs’ players were passing drills organized by Cassel. If someone knows of other team drills during the lock-out, I’d like to know about it.

After the CBA was settled, things happened fast. There was a one week FA  signing period. For the interest of the Chiefs, it is worth mentioning that there were two excellent veteran back-up QBs on the FA market, Carr and Lienhart. Pioli apparently made no strong effort to sign either. Then camp started. Fans got their first clue that HC Haley was taking a unique  approach to how he was running camp when stories broke that the Chiefs’ braintrust had supposedly talked to some people who had been involved in the league during the last work stoppage about how to handle this camp.  The next clue came on the night of the Chiefs’ first preseason game, against the Bucs. Haley treated the game as a practice. I assume that meant that any emotional preparation and/or mental focus was expected to come from the players themselves.  If the entire camp was run without emotional preparation, it would be easy to understand how our first two blow-out losses happened.  On a side note, there must have been some sort of emotional involvement; I assume that the altercation between Baldwin and Jones involved some emotion. From the results of the Lion’s game, the emotion may be coming back, as evidenced by the number of personal fouls. The focus hasn’t returned as of yet, however.

At this point I was going to mention some questionable personnel decisions by Scott Pioli, but I think that can wait for another post. I just finished watching the Giants and Rams. Do you realize the Giants lost half of their starting defense for the season due to injury? We’re only down three starters as of now.  This seems to suggest that whatever is wrong with this team is very wrong, and higher up the food chain than the players themselves.

For those of you who haven’t been involved in the collective bargaining process, a perspective from one who has. Approximately 20 years ago, I was teaching in a large district. The superintendent was a widely respected and trusted man. If Dr. Bill said it was so, it most likely was so. I, being active in the teacher’s union, was selected to be a part of the bargaining team. The superintendent, being a wise man, enrolled all participants (from both sides) in a two-day seminar on the collective bargaining process. This is what I learned.

There are two basic collective bargaining models. One is adversarial. “We only can win if you lose.” According to the presenters (three people from the business world) this model is rarely successful, and usually results in long lasting, deep-seated feelings of animosity towards the opposing position.

The second model (I can’t remember the name of the model)  is based on the premise “No one wins unless we all win”. Without going into details, our negotiations were based on this second model, and were quite successful. We teachers did not get all we wanted, but we got some things we hadn’t thought about asking for.

So. Which model do we all hope the owners and players negotiators use?

Now that we’ve debated the impending demise of football as we know it, it’s time to formulate a plan to save the game we love. Here’s my idea on how to do that.

Continue reading this post »

 

OK. Judge Susie has ordered both sides of the CBA issue back to the table. It is already apparent that Judge Susie is tending to take a pro-players stance on many of the key issues.  As fans, we have to hope that the new settlement doesn’t change the nature of the league we love too much.

I’m not a legal expert, nor a big-business expert, but I am very much afraid there are going to be some serious changes in the way the NFL does business coming out of this mediation process. I would not be at all surprised to see an end to the “Franchise” tag. I seriously doubt that teams will be able to protect their superstar players under any new agreement.  Hopefully, the owners will at least get to keep some form of compensation for teams losing stars to free-agency.  Closely tied to this is revenue sharing, and salary caps. Revenue sharing allows the small-market teams the opportunity to compete with the large-market teams on something resembling an equal footing.  The salary cap (which I believe the players gave to the owners in a previous CBA settlement), in conjunction with revenue sharing, completes the leveling of the playing board. Without these two items, the “rogue” owners of the league (Jerry Jones, Dan Snyder, and Al Davis) will all become George Steinbrenner wanna-bes, bidding on all star free-agent players.  Just as in baseball, where many of the stars are merely “hired guns” (“Maan-eee”) who play the length of one contract for one team, and then re-enter the free-agency market again, to sign a fat contract with another team. It is worth noting that, I believe, there are compensatory draft picks awarded to teams losing a player (since I no longer follow baseball in any way, shape, or form, I’m not absolutely positive about this; if you know about this, post a reply, please). Unfortunately, in baseball, where talent is developed in a minor league system, amateur draft picks don’t become productive players for a minimum of three years.  It is a sad fact, but there are major league baseball teams who most likely will never win a World Series, since they are not competing with the Yankees, the Dodgers, and the other large-market teams on a level playing field.

Whatever happens, I believe free-agency will be changed significantly. I’m positive the mediator will frown on stifling compensation for a team signing a free agent. No way will the price for signing a star free-agent be two #1 draft picks. If the league is smart, compensation to be paid by a team signing a star player will be set at no more than one first-round pick. However, the league could award “compensatory” picks at the end of the first round to teams losing a star player.

 In a “worse-case” scenario, I could see an end to the draft completely.  In any regard, I suspect the draft will be modified. Perhaps a college player who is drafted in the first round could have the option of signing a four year contract for, say $4.5 million/year, or signing a one year deal for $500K, and then re-entering the draft the following year. The same general idea could extend through all seven rounds. In any event, we need to pay attention to whatever comes out of the mediation process.  Any settlement overly advantageous to the players could change the equilibrium of the league.

 

 

Finally, a (semi) official list of free agents! As I perused Jason LaCanfora’s list of potential free agents (NFL Network), one name jumped out at me; WR Jacoby Jones, from the Texans. He’s been in the league four years. He has good size (6’2”, 210) and speed (he returned kicks). Most importantly, he had 51 catches in 2010. He was, I believe, a third round pick from a small college, Lane U. This guy is just entering his prime years. This is a player who would solve our #2 WR problem. If Houston doesn’t tag him, I hope the Chiefs move quickly on this guy!

While checking out the list, I saw two other names that caught my attention; OT Jared Gaither, from the Ravens, and NT Aubrayo Franklin, from the 49’ers. These guys could solidify two other positions on the roster, leaving the team free to address the center position,  OLB, and perhaps a NT in the draft.

Most likely, there will be no FA action until the CBA is settled. If and when there is a settlement, and the Commish establishes a FA signing period, the Chiefs need to move quickly and decisively to improve the roster. What say, y’awl?

With all the talk about the Senior Bowl, the East-West Shrine game, and which OL’s or LB’s we should draft, there hasn’t been a lot of discussion about the QB position. The Cassel-Croyle issue is now ancient history. Cassel is the man. However, Croyle is, I believe, a FA this off season. I’m unable to think of a good reason for him to resign with the Chiefs. Since I doubt any of us would feel any more comfortable with Palko at QB than we did with Croyle for one game, and assuming Croyle does go elsewhere, we will need to address the back-up QB position this off-season. In examining this issue, we first need to identify any potential competitors for a veteran QB.

Tennessee would appear to be in a better position to draft a QB, and have him watch Collins for a season than to bring in a veteran to replace Collins. Seattle acquired Whitehurst last off-season, but could be in the market for another vet. Cincinatti could well be in the market for a QB, assuming Palmer sticks to his guns. It remains to be seen whether or not Buffalo is truly enamored of Fitzpatrick. The “Rat” in Washington would probably like to make a move with McNabb, but almost certainly would need to recoup what he gave up for McNabb. He would probably be more interested in drafting a QB this time around. Minnesota can’t be thrilled with their QB situation. A proven vet should be on their wish-list. Carolina looks to be a candidate for a quality rookie QB. I have no idea what Miami wants to do about their QB situation.

So who’s really in the market for a vet QB? I see three teams who could be involved in a “block-buster” type trade. Washington probably would love to move McNabb in return for a high draft pick. Minnesota would be a likely partner, except for the fact they already are without their third round pick. If they could trade down in the first round & pick up an extra pick in the second, they might go ahead & trade that lower #1 for McNabb. Another possible trade partner for either of these two teams would be the Bengals. If Palmer can make Cincy want to move him, they could trade him straight up for McNabb, or go for the high pick from the Vikes. Seattle could also be interested in a veteran to back up Hasselback. A cagy old vet could be a plus in Detroit, mentoring Stafford. San Francisco has several options. Alex Smith probably won’t be back in the bay next year.  New coach Harbaugh could choose to go with veteran David Carr for a year, or he could draft a QB early & see if he could get the same results St. Loius got last year. This is a team the Chiefs should keep an eye on.

So what Vet QB’s should be available? With the emergence of Cassel, we don’t need to trade for McNabb or Palmer. I’d not give up much for Kerry Collins, either. I believe Matt Leinart signed a 1 yr. deal with Houston, so he could be available. Jax could make Edwards available. Depending on what SF decides to do, Carr could be available. If so, he’d be the vet of my choice. Alex Smith could be a possiblilty, too. However, if I were Smith or Croyle, I’d jump on any offer from the Vikes. I think Leinart could be successful in Minnesota, too.

 

Many fans have already posted their draft thoughts. Most want the Chiefs to select either an offensive lineman or a defensive lineman or linebacker. Those are definitely areas that could use an upgrade. However, I’m betting (conditionally) that we select a WR. Here’s why:

Our center(s) are on the light side for the position, and adept at the zone-blocking scheme. Big, physical NT’s have given Wiegmann problems. However, while not an area of strength on this team, our center play has been adequate. An upgrade would certainly help. Richardson took over for O’Callaghan after an injury, and held the RT job the remainder of the season. At various times this season, most of us felt some frustration with Richardson’s play, or focus. Again, however, he played, for the most part, at a barely adequate level (as compared to Jordan Black a few years ago). Our NT, Edwards, played better than last year. Shaun Smith, whom we suspected was brought in to help at NT, provided adequate play at DE. Andy Studebaker saw significant playing time at OLB, spelling Vrabel. His play wasn’t especially noteworthy, but again, he adequately manned the position. The same can be said of Belcher at ILB. What do all the afore-mentioned players have in common? They all played their positions at least adequately! We weren’t beating the bushes trying to find a center, a RT, a NT, an OLB, or an ILB. The same can’t be said of the #2 WR position.

When the Chiefs resigned Chambers last off season, most Chiefs’ fans heaved a sigh of relief. Chambers had joined the team in the latter stages of the ’09 season, and had been significantly productive, when the Chiefs needed it most. We were sure he would team with Bowe this season to give us the best 1-2 WR corps we’ve have in some time. Unfortunately, apparently San Diego knew more about Chambers than we did. It is worth noting than he was inactive several games this season when healthy. The most glaring fact is that the Chiefs signed a WR (Kevin Curtis) off the streets 4 days before their play-off game, and made him active for the game, rather than Chambers! It is worth noting that the Chiefs could not muster even adequate play from a WR not named Bowe. Those who disagree with my analysis will note that Urban was on IR all season. However, I view him as a possession receiver, the guy who comes in in 4-receiver sets. Anyway, I’ll bet Haley & Pioli wish they hadn’t put Urban on IR.

WR has to be the #1 personnel priority this off-season. I really hope there is a quality WR or two on the FA list, that FA goes the way it has in the past (W/O a CBA agreement), and that we can sign said WR. However, until we have another quality WR under contract, I have to assume that WR is at the top of our draft needs.

 

OK. I’ve patiently waited for the pain of the loss to the Ravens to wear off. It won’t, but life goes on. Now, attention turns to the off-season, and what this team needs to be an even stronger presence next year.

First, the open position of OC needs to be addressed. HC Haley has expressed some small interest in taking over the job himself. Well, Coach, to do so, you need to do only two things. First, HC Haley announces that the new OC is one Todd Haley. Second, HC Haley tenders his resignation as HC of the KC Chiefs. He should’ve learned last year that he can’t successfully handle both jobs. Pick someone you can live with, Coach Haley, & then leave him alone. Need I remind you that you’ve run off two OC’s in two years? That would make Al Davis proud. Once the Chiefs have an OC, Haley needs to try this. On game day, he should put a rubber band on each of the four fingers on his left hand. Then during the game, every time he changes a play the OC has called, he takes a rubber band off a finger. When he’s out of rubber bands, he changes no more plays. Also, he shouldn’t be allowed to talk to the OC for two hours after the game (or at least until he can speak to him in a civil fashion).

As for the team in general, last year we got faster. This off season the focus should be on getting bigger and more physical on both lines. The only justification required for this step would be to watch the replay of the second Chargers’ game, both Raiders’ games, and the play-off game vs. the Ravens. We were physically man-handled at the line of scrimmage, on both sides of the ball. Also, considering the strength of this coming year’s schedule, this would seem a necessity.

In addition to strengthening the lines, we must find a WR opposite Bowe.  The Raiders and Ravens showed the league how to beat us. Physically intimidate us on the line, and double Bowe. We had no answer to doubling Bowe. Considering that Chambers was inactive for the Ravens’ game, replaced by Kevin Curtis, who was only signed three days earlier, the #2 WR is a priority.

How should the Chiefs address these items? IMHO, I doubt that we draft more than two players who will have impacts similar to this season’s rookie crop, considering that we aren’t drafting at #5 this year.  If Pioli can somehow finagle another pick in the first three rounds, that would be great, but that remains to be seen. We need to have a productive FA period. First, let’s not lose any of our key guys. Second we need to spend some $ this year. So far, there have been many names bandied about as potential FA’s. Until we see an official list, we’re just going to have to guess at who will be on the list. Two names I have seen that I’d like to see Pioli sign, if available, were Jacoby Jones, WR, from the Texans, and Jared Gaither, OT, from the Ravens. Gaither, obviously (he was on IR this yr), would have to pass a strenuous physical before throwing any $ at him. If he were healthy & available, he’d supply significant size & talent at the RT position. Jones is just about ready for a break-out year.  Frankly, I’ll be surprised if Houston lets him leave.  Add to this list Aubreyo Franklin, the NT form SF. He’d supply veteran presence at the position. If we were able to add a quality WR and an OT through FA, then we could concentrate on other needs in the draft. First, I doubt we’ll get a WR who can step in right away and take the pressure off Bowe. With Bowman staying in school, the top WRs should be gone by #21. In the early rounds, I’d like to see us address (assuming we sign a WR in FA) the Center position,  ILOB, and a NT. I’ll leave it up to Pioli to decide which rounds. The fly in the ointment in my version of the off-season is the health of Cam Sheffield, and whether or not the coaching staff thinks Studebaker is ready to be the #1 OLB. If neither of these guys is deemed ready, then OLB becomes an option.

OK. That’s my vision of this off-season, & I’m stickin’ to it (for the next 36 hours or so).

 

OK, all you Nambi-Pambi, sniveling, whining Chiefs’ fans, get over it! If the Chiefs losing a play-off game is the worst thing to happen to you this week, you’re going to have a pretty good week. Things ARE worse elsewhere. Try Tuscon, Arizona. The outlaws have guns. Worse, people may kill people, but people with weapons kill more people. Rhetoric is a disease.

I look at this season as a major success. In August, I felt that 7 wins would show acceptable progress, 8 or 9 wins would be excellent. 10 wins & a division title? Amazing! We’re well ahead of schedule towards becoming the team that we need to be.  Yeah, there is work to be done. We absolutely must become more physical in both the offensive and defensive lines. It’s time to stop bringing in guys off the street to play WR opposite Bowe. It’s time to draft our version of D. Jackson, J. Maclin, or J. Ford. These are things the Chiefs’ braintrust will address this off-season. Keep the faith!

The “Big Events” of the Off-Season have now come and gone; free-agency and the draft.

Last January, about two weeks after our season-ending win over the Broncs, I was sitting & thinking (as opposed to just sitting, which I do regularly) about what our team needed in the way of personnel to make a significant improvement this season. After serious rumination, I came to the conclusion that we were eight players short of being a solid team. I felt we needed:

1 RB, 1-2 NT’s, 1 ILB, 1 S, 1 OLB, 2 OL (interior), and 1 slot WR/KR,

and we needed to sign Chris Chambers.

Now the period of significant player acquisition is over. How well did our brain trust manage our roster?

RB-signed FA Thomas Jones; excellent move

NT-signed Shaun Smith, more further on

ILB-no change

S- drafted Berry, Lewis; very good

OLB-drafted Sheffield (5th round) minimal, special teams probably

OL-signed FA’s Lilja, Weigeman, drafted Asamoah; adequate to good

Slot WR/KR-drafted McCluster, Arenas; could be good, jury’s still out

Signed Chambers-very good!

Our offense should be more exciting. JC will have an entire year to torment defenses, with Jones to keep JC fresh. Cassel will have Chambers for an entire season, and Bowe should come to camp in shape (and should have a more productive season). The slot WR position goes from being manned by walk-ons to a potential quick-strike position. If Cottam’s neck is sound, I expect good things from him (even if he was one of Herm’s picks). Our OL is becoming a team strength, rather than a weakness.

Our defense should show some improvement, with Hali having another year of experience at OLB. I expect some improvement from our DE’s, also (again, from a year’s experience). Our secondary could be improved, also. We have a play-maker at S, and Carr could be on the hot-seat at CB, with Washington having a year’s experience, and adding Arenas to the mix. Unfortunately, I expect no improvement from the middle of our defense. ILB was not addressed, and NT was only minimally (at best) addressed. Can Crennel coax steadier play from DJ? I assume Belcher will improve with a year’s experience. NT may well be our Achilles’ Heel. We failed to address the position in the draft. Before free-agency, every team that had a NT eligible to be a FA tagged him. We signed Shaun Smith, and apparently pronounced the position improved. Considering that every team tagged their NT’s that would have become FA’s, I think it speaks volumes about Smith’s abilities that he was released. To put it bluntly, if he was even adequate at NT, he’d still be in Ohio. I expect our opposition to run between the T’s against us, ad nauseum. It is highly unlikely we will find a significant NT & ILB available before July & the start of camp. Remember last year, when we had our WR “scavenger hunt” after the draft? How’d that work out?

Finally, we have a list of “non-contributers” from last season. With some luck, perhaps one or more of these players will move his game to the next level, and prove to be an asset. These players include:

CB, Washington; WR, Lawrence; RB, Williams; S, Morgan; S, Paige; OL, Brown

　

　

　

　

　

There’s been a lot of discussion here over the past six weeks or so as to whether or not the Chiefs should trade down in the first round or not. The primary reasoning for the Chiefs trading down is to acquire more high draft picks in a year with an abundantly deep draft. Unfortunately, trading down is not a unilateral decision. It takes two to tango. If such an opportunity comes, it will come on draft day. Any team looking to move up will also have to decide whether to wait until after the Redskins select, or deal with the Redskins, rather than us. One team that is often mentioned in this scenario is the Buffalo Bills. Let’s take a look at this scenario from the Bills’ standpoint.

 

According to NFL Network, in their “State of the Franchise” segment on the Bills, they are in dire need of a QB. The commentators who postulated that QB was the Bills’ #1 priority went so far as to say that next year’s QB wasn’t yet on the Bill’s roster. The knee-jerk response to this quandary would be for the Bills to trade their first and second round picks (plus a lower pick) to move up high enough to select Clausen. Chan Gaily is, I think, smarter than that. All he needs to do is take a quick look at the careers of David Carr, Andre Ware, Jamarcus Russell, and even Brady Quinn. Each of these QB’s were drafted by bad teams. They weren’t protected, and were sacked many times. Their play suffered, and the quality of their skills deteriorated. They picked up bad habits, which could take years to work out. Therefore, I’ll bet Gaily will do the smart thing. He’s going to stand pat in the first round, and take the best LT still on the board. So I guess they’ll go the next season without a QB? Not necessarily. Chan knows the Chiefs’ personnel. I believe we put a second round tender on Croyle. The Bills should offer Croyle a contract. I think this would be a move beneficial to both teams. The Bills come out of it with a young LT to protect Croyle’s blind side, and a reasonably young QB with a great arm and good decision-making skills. Protect him, & Chan’s got something to work with. The Chiefs get the extra draft choice to use to rebuild their roster.

There is a theoretical down side for the Chiefs to this move. First, if Cassel goes down, the team is in the hands of Gutierrez or Palko. To me, when you’re rebuilding, this is a chance you have to take. Second, if Cassel’s not the guy, you don’t have Croyle to turn the team over to next year. To this I say, Peoli has to trust his instincts. He thought Cassel was good enough to trade for last year. Go with it. Like in poker; if you’ve got a hand, don’t be afraid to play it.

Back to Gaily. Does he have any other options? He could just go with Trent Edwards & hope his play improves. Daunte Culpepper is still out there. However, he may not be interested at this point in time (if I were Culpepper, I’d be watching the situation in Pittsburgh closely; the Steelers, who are a stronger team than the Bills, could be in desperate need of a QB before the season begins).

Back to the Chiefs. So, what do they do if the Bills make an offer to Croyle? They could match it. The organization hasn’t shown any proclivity towards throwing money around unnecessarily. They could sign another unemployed vet QB who has no chance of making serious contributions to the team., but would be one more arm for OTA’s and early camp. They could wait until final cuts to see if anyone has to let a QB with some potential go. Finally, we could draft our own in the fifth round; someone with a name like Kafka, Brown, or Robinson.

Now this is all interesting (I hope) reading, but most likely nothing will come of if. For one thing, there just doesn’t seem to be much action anywhere on the RFA front.

A Strategic Analysis of the Chief’s Draft Prospectus: NOT a MOCK!

I want to thank Larry for setting the bar so high for Fan Posts. Dude, you do it right! After spending two weeks reading various fan posts on what our team ought to do, or what we want our team to do, on draft day, I decided to, first, try to analyze our team’s needs as accurately as I could, and second, analyze who might be available when the Chiefs select, and meets the needs of the team. I am making certain assumptions. First, I’m assuming Chambers doesn’t sign a contract with the Chiefs. I’m assuming Vrabel decides to end his career with a contender. I’m assuming neither Dansby nor Peppers will be wearing a Chiefs’ jersey next season. I’ve come to the conclusion we can live with DJ & Belcher at inside LB, and Albert will be a serviceable LT for the next decade. As I view the team, our priority needs are; WR, NT (we spent the second half of last season with only one ineffectual body at the position), OLB (Vrabel gone, & only Studebaker & Hali with any experience), S (Chad Brown experiment less than successful), and two interior OL. If my fingers don’t deceive me, that’s six players on the high-priority list. We have 5 picks in the top 4 rounds.

In analyzing draft prospects, I took a two step approach. First, using two value boards, “NFL Draft Scout” and “WalterFootball”, I listed the top wide receivers, nose tackles, safeties, interior OL, and 3-4 OLBs in each list’s top 50 players (R.Jones wasn’t on WalterFootball’s list) in hierarchical order, and then compared these player’s ranking with their positions on three mock drafts. I choose “WalterFootball”, “Draftsite.com”, and “NewNFLDraft.com” (the last had several errors). I choose these Mocks because each had at least 3 rounds. I then hypothesized which player(s) would be available with each of our draft choices in rounds 1-4.

Player Name                               Rank WalterFootball              Rank NFL Draft Scout

E. Berry S Tenn                                        1                                                 2

D. Bryant WR OK St.                             12                                                 8

T. Mays S USC                                      43                                               13

Iupati G Idaho                                       32                                                15

G. Tate WR ND                                    30                                                 16

E. Thomas S TX                                  16                                                 19

S. Kindle OLB TX                                34                                                  22

Pierre-Paul OLB USF                        10                                                  25

M. Pouncey G Fla                               28                                                  30

B. LaFell WR LSU                              26                                                  34

Mt. Cody NT Ala                                  47                                                  46

D. Williams WR USC                        11                                                  49

A. Benn WR IL                                    20                                                   57

R. Jones S GA                             not in top 50                                      61

C. Jones S LSU                                38                                                   59

N. Allen S-CB S.Fla                          29                                                   56

J. Hughes OLB TCU                        24                                                   53

　

　

Mock Analysis

Player Name                                                   #NewNFLDraft         #WalterFootball       #DraftSite.com

E. Berry                                                                      # 6 Sea                       # 6 Sea                              # 3 TB

D. Bryant                                                                    # 14 Sea                    # 11 Denver                      # 12 Mia

T. Mays                                                                      # 18 Pitt                      # 21 Cin                             # 24 Phil

Iupati                                                                         # 31 Indy                     # 27 Dallas                       # 18 Pitt

G. Tate                                                                     # 34 Det                       # 33 St. l.                           # 25 Balt

E. Thomas                                                              # 20 Hou                     # 20 Hou                           # 13 SF

S. Kindle                                                                 # 38 Sea                      # 29 NYJ                           # 36 Chiefs

Pierre-Paul                                                             not listed                    # 10 Jax                             # 17 TN

M. Pouncey                                                            # 50 Pitt                        # 31 Indy                           # 37 Wash

B. LaFell                                                                 # 39 Clev                     # 25 Balt                            # 48 NE

Mt. Cody                                                                 # 29 Minn                    # 36 Chiefs                        # 42 NE

D. Williams                                                           # 21 Cin                      # 44 NE                               # 47 Car

A. Benn                                                                  # 35 TB                       # 35 TB                                # 61 NYJ

R. Jones                                                               # 58 NE                       # 90 Dallas                         # 59 Dallas

C. Jones                                                              # 71 Oak                      # 46 NYG                            # 51 Hou

N. Allen                                                                # 77 Denver                 # 38 Clev                            # 52 Pitt

J. Hughes                                                           # 40 Oak                      # 43 Mia                              # 43 Mia

From these two charts, we can deduce that:

1. Berry could well be available @ #5. IF not, this pick is problematical; picking

   a player on our priority list would not be a value pick, unless we took a LT, &

    moved Albert, so he could learn something new all over again this year (why?)

2. Tate will probably be off the board by #36. We’ll need to choose another WR.

3. Pouncy is “iffy” for the second round. Ducasse could be alternate.

4. Iupati apparently will be gone by the end of the 1st round.

5. Cody probably won’t last until our 2nd pick in the 2nd round. Thomas

    alternative?

6. Kindle or Hughes should be doable with our pick in the second round.

Realize, this is merely an exercise in probability. Use it as you will. Remember, there are other players who weren’t on either of these two value boards who could fit into our plans, such as NT Cam Thomas, & WR Jordan Shipley. We’re going to have to figure out how to fill our priorities.

NOTE: I apologize for the lack of formating. Site wouldn't take the chart I made on Spreadsheet,  so Iretyped charts on my wp doc; formatting didn't transfer when I copied doc.

 

Off-season game plan.

We’re now in that dead part of the year, with no football! Running the risk of being called redundant (or worse), I’m going to submit a plan for what I’d like to see our off-season look like.

To begin with, we should submit a “friendly” contract tender to DJ (“Friendly” as in attractive to another team). The tender should be just in the amount that would require compensation in form of a 2nd round draft choice this year. This draft pick is very important to other parts of my plan. DJ doesn’t seem to fit into Haley’s plans, but would appear to have some value, as he’s just approaching his best years. Hopefully, Dallas or Arizona would be interested.

Next, in the FA market, go after & sign a NT (Ryan Picket if available, then we‘d at least have one NT), and a pair of veteran LB’s, Karlos Dansby (ILB, essentially DJ’s replacement) and Joey Porter (if he’s released by Miami; he’d be Vrabel’s replacement). Then we’d be set for the draft.

Now for the draft. I’ve come to the conclusion that Chris Chambers isn’t interested in another season in Arrowhead, so we’re going to need a WR. If we are able to pull off the DJ thing, & get a second round pick, there is no pressing need to trade down, unless someone (Buffalo?) makes us an offer we can’t refuse. Our draft could look something like this (Note: I used Walterfootball.com as my source for value boards. Supply other names if you want, switch positions, too):

1 (#5) any LT you like; Okung, Davis, Campbell, Bulaga

2A Golden Tate, WR, ND; without Chambers, we have to address this position

2B Daryl Washington, ILB, TCU; one of the key defensive positions in need of

up-grade

2C (from DJ leaving) Cam Thomas, NT, N.Carolina (a defensive “need”)

3 Larry Asante SS, Neb. (also a defensive “need”)

Note: Walterfootball had Thomas ‘s value listed at rounds 2-3, & Asante’s

Value listed as rounds 3-4; this is why DJ deal so important…making sure

both would be available

4 How ‘bout a C? Olsen from ND?

5A whatever…I’d like to see John Jerry, G Ole Miss….he’s BIG!

5B whatever…Cameron Sheffield? OLB, Troy (depth at position)

5C whatever…Stafon Johnson? RB, USC, JC needs a running mate…or Blount,

U. of OR?

Priority FA’s… camp out on their front porches…

O’Brien Schofield, OLB, Wisconsin…this guy was invited to Senior

Bowl, blew out knee in practice; probably on PUP next yr.

Armanti Edwards, QB, App. St. a running QB, should be WR/wildcat QB

**Alternate scenario Rounds 1-2: take Dez Bryant in 1st, best G left in 2nd (Ducasse?)

　

 

Ahhh. Now begins the winter of our discontent (especially if you, like me, are a Clippers’s fan). I think I’ll opine on the state of our Chiefs. First of all, if Haley/Peoli did absolutely nothing, & welcomed the same 60-odd players into camp next July, the team would still be better than most of this year. Some of our current players will just improve naturally. Let’s assume the Haley/Peoli aren’t quite that patient. They want to speed up the improvement process (I hope). Here’s what I think ought to happen.

Somewhere out there must be a fan who agrees that the defense needs help in the middle; a disruptive NT, an ILB who runs to the ball carrier, or drops consistently to where he needs to be on pass plays, and a safety who has a nose for the ball, whether it’s in the hands of an opponent, or in the air, and takes the correct angle in pursuit of the ball. If Vrabel departs, we also will need to add an OLB. If we allow DJ to exit, we’ll need another ILB, too (of course, if DJ does leave, it’s because we allowed him to leave, & we should be in line for a high draft choice in compensation).

On offense, most agree that the OL needs some fresh talent (I’m assuming Waters comes back for at least one more season). At this point in time, I don’t think it matters whether we add a G or T; if we draft a G, & Albert still struggles next year, then getting a LT becomes priority #1 in ‘11. I think we also need to look for a C in the mid rounds (3 or 4). I think a RB should be high on the list of priorities this year. Charles had a great season, but he’s not a big guy. I liken him to Johnson (Titans) or Addai (Colts). Each of those teams has a capable replacement for their #1 back. We don’t (unless you’re satisfied with Battle or Castile). I also think (now don’t dismiss me as an idiot) that we need to look for a wildcat QB-type guy. Even if Weis doesn’t run any variety of the wildcat, we could use a player of that type to run the practice team. The Wildcat’s not going away anytime soon, & our D needs to see it in practice. We could get this guy with one of our 5th’s.

So let’s rehash; as I see it, we need at least 3 defensive players, and 3-4 offensive players. Let’s see, now. We have 5 picks in rounds 1-4. That won’t bring in 6 players. Looks to me like Peoli might need to trade down in round 1 or 2, & pick up an extra pick. We really need to get lucky & sign two quality FA’s with something left in the tank. Thanks for your attention. (whoa…I didn’t mention WR!) Actually, I think this position can be upgraded w/o using a high draft choice. You’ve heard it from me before, & I’ll say it again…sign Matt Jones, and Chris Chambers (I’m really worried about Chambers; I suspect he’ll use his success with us to entice a contender to offer him a contract…if we lose him, we will need to draft a WR in the early rounds). Bowe, Chambers, Jones…I’d take my chances with those 3, with Lawrence or Long in the slot.) Thank y’awl for allowing me an opportunity to opine.

 

Todd Haley; Should he stay…should he go?

Our team is performing dismally; perhaps worse than last year’s team. We have a new coach this year. It is time to evaluate his performance.

As a Head coach, what are the skills required for success? First, “People Skills”. The HC must have the respect and support of his staff and players. How has Haley done here? I’d give him an “F”. Starting with the infamous “22 players off the street…” comment, through his tirades in camp and treatment of various players, to his poor decisions in games, he has done precious little to garner the respect of his players. I taught elementary school for 35 years, and coached sports for 25 years. I can absolutely tell you that yelling at a person does not produce the desired effect, whether you’re yelling at a child on an adult (cursing isn‘t especially productive, either). Treating adults like children also won’t endear you to your peers. Finally, sabotaging your players’ efforts with ludicrous calls (like fake punts when you’re only down by 8 points) won’t earn the coach the respect he needs. This is why I have give Haley an “F” in the “People Skills” area.

A coach must be able to evaluate talent objectively. Haley decided Pollard’s cover skills and pursuit angles were not up to par, and choose to go with Brown at safety. Brown has proven to be no better than Pollard. The position didn’t improve, and I’ll bet more than a couple of players wondered at the reasoning behind this move. Toomer, Ingram, and Wade were brought in to improve the WR corps. None of these players proved to be markedly better than Bradley. Haley likely had little to do with Cassel’s contract. However, with the offense floundering, and Cassel not playing well. Haley seems reticent to make a change at QB. The team struggled through the first half of the season with LJ as the primary (only?) RB. Finally, LJ removed himself from the picture. Given the opportunity, Charles has given the running game a spark. Haley’s grade in this area? I’ll be lenient…”D-”.

A coach must be able to motivate his players to play at least at their best level, if not exceed the level. This will be short and sweet. Take a look at our last two games. The two terms that come to mind are “unfocused” and “unmotivated”. We all thought the team had turned the corner against Pittsburg. Maybe not, considering the Oakland and Cleveland both beat the Steelers. “D-”, pure & simple.

Finally, we come to “game management”. This would encompass such items as judicious use of trick plays, functional game plans, and overseeing all aspects of team preparation. Judicious use of “trick plays” could be construed as not running fake punts when you are only down by one score, especially deep in your own territory, or going on 4th and 2 in your own end of the field. A functional game plan could mean not running Herm Edward’s favorite offense with LJ, when he’s averaging 2.7 yds. per carry. It could mean focusing on positive gains on first down, so as to minimize the number of 3rd & longs. Overseeing all aspects of team preparation, could include not allowing your DC to call for a safety blitz late in a game in which your team is still competitive (& thereby getting burned by a long pass for a TD). It might also include the HC watching his D on the field, rather than sitting on the bench consoling his QB after a pick. Of course, that’s the OC’s job. “D”, & I’m being very lenient.

For Haley to be allowed another year to get things together, he needs to show some positives, somewhere (besides being a good interview). I just haven’t seen it. Everything I’ve seen this year says Haley should be a “one-year wonder”.

Royalsfan wrote an interesting article stating his belief that Croyle should start because he’s a better QB than Cassel. He’s entitled to his opinion. I tend to agree with him. That stated, Cassel is the QB for the Chiefs for the next decade or so. As UCrawford stated, there are 60 million reasons why this is so. Cassel is untradable because of his contract, so we’re stuck with him. The same is not true of Croyle. This is why, if Haley is indeed an astute coach, Croyle will start 3 or 4 games the remainder of this season. After the jump, my reasons. 

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This post will be in two parts. First, the Chargers’ game in particular, then the season as a whole.

Lance Long? OK…but why not release Engram or Copper? Did I miss some contribution either of them made towards a successful season? Pendergast, just come out & admit it like a man. Putting Richardson on Jackson was a stupid idea. Cassel, this was his worst game yet. He looked genuinely like a #2 QB. LJ was…well…just like he’s been all season. Ineffective. Our offensive game plan just sucked. Fire the OC.

I stumbled on an epiphany concerning our Chiefs last Friday night, when I was dumping some things off my DVR. I came across the NFL network condensed replay of the Chiefs-Ravens game from week 1. I took one last look at it. The visual evidence against Haley was just damning. This was a much, much better team in week 1 than it has been at any time since, with the possible exception of the ‘boys game. Players were focused. The offense, while clearly less talented (especially in the OL) than the Raven’s defensive counterparts, still played effectively (of course, the QB was Croyle, not Cassel). The defense was on the field for a very long time, but still held it’s own until the last 3 minutes of the game (when Pendergast went “all-in” with both safeties blitzing). “That team” would’ve easily beaten the Raiders and the ‘boys. So why isn’t the current team at least playing up to its potential? Perhaps something is distracting the team. Might it be the coach’s temper tantrums? Perhaps constantly looking over your shoulder to see what free agents are working out for the coaching staff that week? (by the way, Whitlock’s column is right on target this week)

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The San Francisco Forty-Niners can't sign Crabtree. Peoli, offer them next yrs. #2 & #5 in a conditional trade (alternate scenario; our #1 next year for Crabtree & Niners' #3). This late into the season, the Niners may jump at the chance to unload what is perceived in the bay area as a problem. The Niners don't want to cave in, & Crabtree seems willing to sit out this season & re-enter the draft next year. This deal could solve problems fkor two teams. Think about it. You have to spend $7 more this year, Right? In 4-5 weeks, we could have a WR to take the double coverage off Bowe.