I know the draft has been discussed, ad nauseum.  So many things about combine results, who's rising and falling, who has medical or character issues, etc.  I think the best indicator of potential is past production.  I decided to take a look at the 4 obvious areas of need for the Bills (QB, OT, DT, Pass Rusher), check how the Bills fared in those areas in 2009, and how some of the draft prospects fared.

I am not in anyway stating that production in college automatically translates to success in the NFL.  We obviously know it's not true (see Vernon Gholston).  Plus, this comparison doesn't take into account quality of opponents, conference, etc.  But, it did bring up some interesting comparisons and correlations.  After the jump, I have a breakdown of needs areas, and possible draft prospects to fill them.

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The Bills have finally confirmed that Jimmy Kennedy is in Buffalo.  In a text sent by the team, they released the following statement:

<<FA DT Jimmy Kennedy is visiting Orchard Park today; is scheduled to address the media at approx. 12:15 PM.>>

From all reports I've read he actually was in Buffalo yesterday, though the team will not confirm that.  

Here's hoping that such a long visit means they've signed him and will announce it at the presser, and not just say, I had a good visit and now I've got other visits lined up.

OK, So I'm posting a lot tonight after not posting in a long time.  Thank the holiday alcohol.

Bottom line, our defense is GREAT.  The stat lines may not show it. And, our run defense is not what I what.  But, we have the 6th best ranked defense against fantasy QBs, and a high scoring defense.  We have forced so many more turnovers this year (Thank you Jarius Byrd my new favorite player).  But, we lose so many games in the 4th quarter (5).  They get tired.  Blame our offense.  They have more 3 and outs than anyone in the league (yes even more than the Raiders and Browns).  When your defense plays 75 downs a game, I don't care how good you are, you're bound to allow points.   

Fix the offense, and you'll fix the defense where we have some playmakers.

Side Note, Martz or Billick or Shananhan can do that.  They all can do offense which we need.  our defense will be fine. 

Let's get a coach and make the playoffs.

We've heard basically any big-name available associated with the Bills. Bill Cower, Mike Holmgrem, Marty Schottenheimer, Tony Dungy, Jon Gruden (All not interested).  Then there's Mike Shanahan.  Let me go on record as saying, he was my top choice 2 months ago.  I'd LOVE HIM.

However, my SECOND CHOICE 2 month ago, was a name NO ONE has associated with the Bills.  Former Ravens head coach Brain Billick.  The guy can coach. He has a SuperBowl, and several playoff appearances.  He has an 85-67 record as a head coach, (5-3 in playoffs). A .556 winning percentage would be welcome in Buffalo. Hell, a .500 record would be welcome. The best thing about Billick, he;s an offensive guru, though you'd never know it from his time in Baltimore. He as an offensive guru, and was a coordinator for the 1998 Minnesota Vikings with Moss and Culpepper who set all kinds of offensive records(broke, much to my chagrin by the 2007 Patriots, thank you Giants).

Billick won a SuperBowl with effing Trent Dilfer.  He NEVER had a QB in Baltimore, but he STILL WON GAMES.  He had Dilfer, Elvis Grbac, Kyle Boller, and aging Steve McNair, and now Joe Flacco. He won games, he made the playoffs, and won a SuperBowl with bottom half of the league QBs.  That's what we have right now. Imagnie if we ever gave him a top QB.  

He's an offensive guru and has coached some of the best defenses in history.  He did it without good QBs.  Imagine if we draft a good QB, and then get our defense goind.  Did anyone else see Schobel in the 3-4??? We ACTUALLY had pass rush. 

On anotehr note, have you ever heard Billick as the color guy for an NFL broadcats???  He's brilliant.  I love listening to him.  He talks about parts of the game I never even think of.  When he talks about how teams use timeouts in the final 2 minutes of a half, it blows my mind.

I'd love to have Shanahan, but why aren't people talking about Billick as a very realistic (low money market/offensive guru/winning record) option.  I;d love to have a guy like him OR Shanahan coaching my team.  Afte rall, the knock on Shanahan is how long it took him to win a SuperBowl with Elway.  Billick won one with effing Dilfer.

I was a HUGE Brandon Pettigrew fan.  Not at #11, but definitely at #28.  However, I LOVE LOVE LOVE Eric Wood, and am so excited he's a Bill.  He was a monster in the Big East (I'm also a Syracuse fan) and he was a nightmare in the BigEast for 4 years.  Rest assured, we finally have a Pro Bowl (give him a couple years) interior lineman and we're going to love it (I also love the trade up to get Levitre).  

I would have loved Pettigrew, but I honestly think we have 2 solid TE prospects on the roster already.  Let's be honest, Krupt would be an upgrade over Robert Royal.  Sure, Royal could block.  I can't attest for Krupt's receiving ability, but I can assume he wouldn't fumble or have his thumb up his @$$ as much as Royal did.

Here's the thing.  Everyone (including me) wanted to draft an "impact" Tight End.  While I think Pettigrew will be a good player, if you look at 1st Round Tight Ends historically, there's no such thing as a "Sure Thing."  (Especially when you're stuck on the Lions, seriously how many people think Pettigrew was pissed the Lions picked him?)

I think we already have our tight ends on the roster.  Schouman showed flashes of being able to do stuff last year.  But, everyone forgets that Fine was just a rookie.  he played in 10 games starting 5 of them.  He had 10 catches for 94 yards last season.  I know it's only 10 catches, but he average over 9 yards a catch.  His long was only 12 yards, so he was consistently good for 8-12 yards a reception.  Pettigrew only average 11.2 yards per reception IN COLLEGE last year, with just 42 receptions.  

I talked to a friend of mine (in the Buffalo media) who knows Fine and thinks the Bills should be happy with him and Schouman.  Fine is not a good, but GREAT blocking tight end.  Better than Royal or Schouman.  You'll notice in game film last year that Fine was in on running downs, because the guy can block.  

He was only a ROOKIE people, and I think he may mature into THE guy we want. I'm not saying I don't think we shouldn't take a TE in Day 2, but I think Fine can be both the blocker and the underneath receiving threat for 8-10 yards we're looking for.  After-all, one of the Bills best pass catching tight ends ever, Jay Riemersma, only averaged just over 11 yards a catch with Buffalo.  If Fine continues to improve, I think he can be the blocker we need, and average 10 yards a reception to be not an All-pro tight end, but a very solid tight end who can make a difference in the Bills running and passing game.

 

With news that the Bills have moved Peters to the Eagles, see front page, let me be the first to speculate on some options for the Bills to fix the line this year.

I would love to package a trade to get Brian Waters from KC.  I don't know if this is a hugely realistic option at this point however.  So, I'm going to look at some scenarios out there through the draft.

We could draft one of the top 3 OT's with the 11th overall pick.  There is a strong possibility all three of them could be gone by the time the Bills pick.  Then we're up the creek without a paddle.  So what are some options?

I would be a big proponent at this point of going out and picking up Jon Runyan, formerly of the Eagles.   I know he's the wrong side of 30 (he's 35).  But, he has that "mean streak" the Bills are looking for, has a great attitude, is a Pro Bowler and has something to prove after being let go by the Eagles.  This would give the Bills some flexibility, maybe move Walker to LT and put Runyan at RT.  Toss Kirk Chambers into the mix.  Maybe it gives Demetrius Bell one more year to become the "next Jason Peters" without the heartache and headache.

Additionally, this give the Bills the freedom to draft the BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE at #11.  Then, maybe one of the two all-world centers (Max Unger or Alex Mack) are available at #28.  The consensus is these two may be the best two centers to come out in a long time.  You can move Hangartner over to Guard and then draft BEST AVAILABLE in the 2nd Round.  

Here's Some Runyan Stats to back up my desire to get him:

6'7", 330 Pounds.  Has started 192 straight regular season games.  21 postseason starts since 1999.  More than any other active player in NFL.  For you math majors, that's 213 Consecutive starts without missing a game.  Allowed just 7.0 sacks in 2008 in 16 games (compare that to 11.5 for Peters in 13 games).  

Other Tackles available in free agency still:

Jonas Jennings (Goo!)

Richie Incognito, Rams- Stop gap and depth at best

Mark Tauscher, Green Bay

Any thoughts?

Like everyone else, after signing T.O. and with lots of hope heading for the draft and my favorite prospects, I had a lot of hope once again for the Bills in 2009.  But is anyone else beginning to doubt the Bills will even win 6 games in 2009?  I'm thoroughly frustrated with this team for the first time since I've been a fan.

Here's a recap:

**We cut Derrick Dockery and let BOTH of our Centers go into free agency, leaving huge holes along the line (Not  that I think any of them were any good).  We plan to fill them with a journeyman center from Carolina (who I'm actually very hopeful about), and either Kirk Chambers (who wasn't good enough to start last year) Demetrius Bell (who didn't play organized football until 2 years ago) or a journeyman Guard who hasn't been good enough to be a consistent starter anywhere.

** Jason Peters, need I say more?  No matter how this turns out, unless the Bills sign Peters they lose in this situation.  Even if they sign him and overpay they lose.  I want Peters on this team.  We may get draft picks, but picking a tackle and expecting him to start THIS year is incredibly risky.

**Marshawn Lynch is arrested and suspended for 3 games

**Donte Whitner is arrested, charges will be filed, and could face suspension.

**Ko Simpson arrested way back when," I'm worth millions." Enough said.

(Any one beginning to feel like the Bengals yet?)

**Outside of Terrell Owens we did not get ANY better in free agency.  We still have gapping holes at strongside linebacker, guard/center, defensive end, tight end, possibly tackle.  How many guys can we draft and expect to start right away?  One or two?

It just feels like there is NOTHING positive around the Bills.  Absolutely nothing at all.  I still love this team and remaining hopeful.  Realistically the Bills have done nothing to instill confidence they are going to win THIS season.  That means we're looking at a coaching change, which means a philosophy change, and ultimately a new "3-year building process."  By then the Bills could be in Toronto.  

Bottom line, we're going backwards.  We may look back at this offseason and consider it our worst since we traded for Rob Johnson.  Yes its THAT bad.

OK< so I know Williams always underachieved in Dallas and is a bit of a head case.  That said he's still a great Strong Safety, and while I have faith in Bryan Scott, it'd be nice to have a head hunter back there to give receivers something to think about.  

Williams isn't a great cover guy and gets burned sometimes, but he is amazing supporting the run and punishing receivers.  I'd love to pair him back there with Donte Whitner.  Whitner is a hard hitter himself and a much better coverage guy.  Pair the two of them in the secondary and receivers are going to be shaking in their cleats with two of the hardest hitting safeties in the game.

Forget last year when Williams only played in 3 games.

2007- 93 tackles, 72 solo, 5 passes defended, 2 INT

2006-  62 tackles, 52 solo, 14 passes defended, 5 INT

2005- 81 tkls, 69 solo, 10 passes defended, 3 INT, 3 Forced Fumbles

2004- 94 tkls, 73 solo, 2 INT, forced fumble

 

Whitner

2008- 61 tkls, 50 solo, pass defended, forced fumble 0 INT

2007- 89 tkls, 68 solo, 1 pass defended, 1 forced fumble, 1 INT

2006- 104 tkls, 67 solo, 5 passes defended, INT

 

Ko Simpson 2006 & 2008 combined (we'll forget 2007 when he missed most of the year)

143 tkls, 102 solo, 6 apsses defended, forced fumble, 2 INT

Bryan Scott 2007 & 2008 combined

97 tkls, 77 solo, 4 passes defended, sack, 2 forced fumbles, 0 INT

Williams looks like an upgrade to me.  At the very least maybe this post will get people to stop talking about another recently released Cowboy whom I shall call He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named, who I would HATE to see in a Bills uniform. Thoughts anyone?

Here's a trivia game for Bills fans.  Name me the last free agent we hosted, who left Buffalo without a contract offer and later signed with the Bills.  Here's an even better one, name me one player who visited the Bills, got a contract offer, and then took another free agent visit, only to come back and sign with the Bills.

Bottom line, as much as I love the Bills, they don't break the bank on anyone (save Derrick Dockery, and that was obviously a great investment) to lure free agents in.  And the Bills have been a poor franchise for long enough that we are the Lions, the Bengals, the 49ers.  Unless we offer the most money (Which we wont do) free agents don't come here.  And we're not like New England who will sign a Fred Taylor for less then we offered simply so Taylor has a shot at a ring.

Be prepared for the Bills to miss out on Coles.  We'll end up trying to trade for Torry Holt, or signing an Amani Toomer or a Marvin Harrison.  We'll sign another past-his-prime veteran (See Lawyer Milloy, Sam Adams, Robert Royal and Troy Vincient) to "solve our receiver problem" instead of ponying up for the guy who could actually be an Andre Reed type, go across the middle and open up the field for everyone else type of guy.

I'm just venting and pissed off that we always lose out on these guys, and I hope I'm proved wrong.  But, all we're going to try to do is build through the draft again.  How well has that worked out?  Yeah, we've had a couple of good players (Edwards, Lynch, etc.), but bottom line, we've had a ton of misses.  Chris Ellis was a mistake, we could have had 3 Tight Ends who actually made a significant contribution last year instead of Ellis who will never be more then a special teamster or situation pass rusher (Again, I hope I'm wrong).
I love Paul Pozluszny and Donte Whitner, I really do.  And while they're both good players, neither (as of yet) has been the dominant playmaker the Bills really need. We've had HUGE misses (J.P. Losman, John McCargo, Chris Ellis, Hardy- verdict still out, but not who we thought he might be, Ko Simpson, Duke Preston, etc.) I'm tired of continually missing out on our draft choices while the Patriots, Steelers and other "Good Teams" hit in every round.  Meanwhile, look at the picks we've traded away: When we traded with the Cowboys to get Willis McGahee, the Cowboys used our pick to draft Demarcus Ware.  We traded to get Rob Johnson, and the Jaguars drafted Fred Taylor.    Guys picked after we took McKelvin (who I'm still very high on): Joe Flacco, Felix Jones, Chris Johnson, Dustin Keller (and here we are still needing a TE), Eddie Royal, Matt Forte.  Look at 2006, the guys we missed out on drafted after McCargo: Joseph Addai, Nick Mangold, Demeco Ryans, Devin Hester, Maurice Jones-Drew.
We just aren't that good.  We have a lot of need areas that won't be addressed in free agency (Tight End, #2 WR, Guard, LB, Defensive End).  And face it, we're not going to get 5 starters in the Draft, we're lucky if we get one with our track record.  Say you take a DE with our first pick and he's good enough to start, you still have a question marks at Guard (I hope Chambers can step in), at Cornerback (I hope McKelvin can step in), at Tight End (I have no clue what the hell we'll do), at LB (God not another 16 games of Keith Ellison), and hoping James Hardy or Steve Johnson become an all-star #2 WR.  
I LOVE the Bills, and I'm ALWAYS the one to say, these guys are great, we'll be OK.  But, I'm just tired of losing on all these guys EVERY year.  We just aren't that good, and until something changes in management we won't be that good.  I'm sorry for ranting, and again, I hope they prove me wrong.  I will literally have no issue eating my entire shoe if I am, because it's be the most delicious shoe ever.  I'm just so frustrated as i know we all are.

From rotoworld.com, via the Buffalo News.

<<The Bills have entered contract negotiations with LT Jason Peters.
Peters held out through training camp last year and had possibly the worst season of his career, but Buffalo still considers him a building>>

I'm sure we all already knew they were in negotiations, and I'm sure it will likely take months to get a deal, but good news none-the-less.  Hopefully they don't break the bank.