SB Nation User Blog: Stacey

Mythbusters: Would the O's be Contenders in the AL Central?

Stacey — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 03:31:37 -0000

You hear it from time to time here on Camden Chat as well as various other outlets: the Orioles are victims of their division. If only they could spend some time in AL Central they'd be contenders. If not contenders, they'd at least be able to tally enough wins to avoid being an embarrassment. It actually just came up a few days ago in one of our daily open threads. I don't think anyone says it as an excuse for the team the Orioles have been for the past decade-plus. Rather it's a way to vent frustration at the idea that it'll be tougher to build a contender in the AL East than anywhere else in the league. That may be the case, but WOULD the Orioles be competitive in the AL Central? Would they have any more success? There's no way to accurately determine exactly how they'd do in the AL Central; there are just too many variables. But there are few ways to get a ballpark idea.

The simplest way to make a comparison seems to be taking the winning percentage the Orioles had against each division and swapping the number of games played between the AL East and Central. I know the teams and number of games played in the AL West and interleague would also be modified slightly, but this is just for fun, and while math_geek might disagree, too much math just takes the fun out of things. And before the sample size police come after me, I also know that just 37 games against a division doesn't necessarily indicate how they'd do in almost twice as many games.

Anyway, if the Orioles were in the AL Central in 2009, it'd look like this:

Division - Winning %	2009 AL East Orioles	Bizarro AL Central O's
vs. AL East - .333	24-48	12-25
vs. AL Central - .459	17-20	33-39
vs. AL West - .342	12-23	12-23
vs. Interleague - .611	11-7	11-7
Record	64-98	68-94

Hm. Well that's not very encouraging. Here are the Orioles hypothetical records with the same formula applied to the Orioles in each year from 2001-2008 (2001 is the first year of unbalanced scheduling).

	Actual O's record	Bizarro AL Central O's record
2008	68-93	76-85
2007	69-93	68-94
2006	70-92	74-88
2005	74-88	69-93
2004	78-84	82-80
2003	71-91	72-90
2002	67-95	77-85
2001	63-98	67-94
Totals	560-734 (.433)	585-709 (.452)

Yep, still pretty embarrassing. Just a 25 game difference over 9 years. And that doesn't even factor into this fantasyland that one of the AL Central teams would probably have to go over the AL East. Otherwise there would be a 6 team AL Central and a 4 team AL East. So if in this exercise you swap the two worst teams and send the Royals over to the AL East (sorry, KC!), you'd have to take out their portion of the overall AL Central record. I won't redo the math, but from 2001-2009 the Orioles are 65-46 (.708) against KC. Yikes.

Another common complaint, and one that I agree with whole heartedly, is the unbalanced schedule. It makes no sense to me. I don't even get the argument for it. Well, I don't know what the argument for it is but if I heard it I'm sure I wouldn't get it. The baseball season is 162 games long, there is plenty of time to play each team an equal amount. It's not football where there are only 16 games. I'm of course under no delusion that a balanced schedule would have put the Orioles in the playoffs or anything, but still. I personally think the MLB is so desperate to pimp the Red Sox vs the Yankees that it's the entire reason for going unbalanced.

(by the way, if you're interested in the guts of the math, here's my worksheet, including what a balanced schedule might look like)

I don't think anyone would argue that it's easier to compete in the AL Central than the AL East, but the Orioles can't use that as any sort of excuse because they are just straight up awful. I think the team with the most legitimate complaint regarding the division in this decade is the Toronto Blue Jays. In the past 10 years the Blue Jays have won at least 80 games 7 times and have only finished above third place once. I'm willing to bet this sort of exercise with that team would show very different results as they've had teams with talent in the recent past. The O's have no such excuse.

Monday Bird Droppings: Post Snow Edition

Stacey — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 13:36:45 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

Jolly Old Saint Nick 'kakis.(AP Photo/Gail Burton)

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Not much O's news today, I'd expect it'll stay that way pretty much until the end of the year with Christmas and New Years right around the corner. Did everyone on the east coast enjoy their snowy weekend? I for one am annoyed that my work told me I have to go in today. Jerks. It was a good Sunday, though, other than the shoveling. The Ravens won, Miami, Denver, and the Jets lost. If only the Steelers hadn't pulled it out at the last second it would have been the perfect football day, don't you think? Although anyone who watched that last drive had to admit it was very exciting. Anyway, to baseball:

Brad Komminsk reviews Bowie's pitching
He talks about Arrieta, Bascom, Erbe, Steve Johnson, Lebron, Patton, Perrault, Tanaka, and Chad Thall. -Stacey

Two-minute drill - EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA
This doesn't have to do with baseball, but this dude called the Buffalo Bills "a laughingstock, the Baltimore Orioles of the AFC East." Nice. -Stacey

A's close to deal to acquire Crisp - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
The A's and Coco Crisp have agreed on a one year deal with an option for 2011. Yes, this is considered news on a slow day like today. -Stacey

Saber-Slanted Last Minute Xmas Gifts - Beyond the Box Score
BtB offers some Christmas ideas for the baseball fan in your life. -Stacey

Six Baseball Books Worthy of Christmas Wrapping Paper - DRaysBay
DRaysBay offers some books for the baseball fan in your life. -Stacey

Edit (10:39 a.m.): This was posted on ESPN insider about an hour ago. I hope it will put all of the Adrian Gonzalez talk to bed:

Once the Red Sox landed free agent John Lackey last week, the rumor mill quickly had Boston looking into a deal for Adrian Gonzalez in which Clay Buchholz would be sent to San Diego.

There might be other teams able to put a package together for the star first baseman. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the Baltimore Orioles could be players at some point since "they were in on Mark Teixeira last offseason and have the prospects to make it happen."

One executive cautioned that the Padres would ask for Matt Wieters or Brian Matusz, which would be too high a price for the O's.

Keep dreaming, Padres!

Only one thing in the world could've dragged me away from the soft glow of electric sex gleaming in the Open Thread.

Sunday Bird Droppings

Stacey — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 08:56:32 -0000

by Jeff Roberson - AP

Your Off-Season O of the Day: Spring Training Matt Wieters (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)

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MacPhail satisfied for now | orioles.com: News
Andy MacPhail likely made his biggest splashes of the offseason over the last couple of weeks, when he traded for Kevin Millwood, signed Mike Gonzalez to a two-year deal and reached agreement on a one-year pact with Garrett Atkins. Now he rests. - zknower

Andy MacPhail talks about Billy Rowell
I almost wish Billy Rowell would just get traded to another organization so that I can stop hearing about him. -Stacey

For Orioles, all the right moves just aren't all that exciting
Peter Schmuck says things, most of which annoy me. -Stacey

Guts' spot in the rotation
Roch Kubatko ponders the order of the rotation, speculating Millwood will be the #1 and Guthrie the #2. My opinion? Put them in whatever order you want, Matusz will be the ace of the rotation by the all star break. -Stacey

Red Sox 3B Lowell to have thumb surgery
The rumored trade between the Rangers and Red Sox has been halted with the news that Mike Lowell needs surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. The Red Sox just can't get rid of this guy. -Stacey

Reds give 3B Scott Rolen 2-year extension
Scott Rolen signed a 2 year, $13M contract extension with the Reds. Funny move for a team trying to dump payroll. -Stacey

Camden Chat HoF Vote
Last chance to submit your ballot for the CC HoF vote. The results will be released in the first week of January. -Stacey

Hey! I tell you what I'm gonna give you, Snakes. I'm gonna give you to the count of 10 to get your ugly, yellow, no-good keister off my property before I pump your Open Thread full of lead! One, two, ten!

On the Gonzalez signing: What is the real value of a 2nd round draft pick?

Stacey — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 16:16:51 -0000

When the Orioles signed Type-A free agent Mike Gonzalez to a two-year, $12M contract on Wednesday, one of the major concerns of many was the loss of the Orioles 2nd round draft pick in 2010. My first inclination was to agree, but after thinking about it for awhile I realized I had no idea the actual value of a second round draft pick. What is the likelihood of a 2nd round draft pick not only reaching the majors but having a significant impact? How does a team leverage that against the value they can get from the free agent, in this case "just" a relief pitcher (albeit one with a very good track record)?

To find some answers, I did what I usually do: I went to Baseball Reference. Using their draft section, I looked at every 2nd round draft pick from 1985 to 2001. I'd planned on using 20 years of data but frankly, once I got to 17 it seemed that I had enough (read: I was tired of looking at it).

From 1985 to 2001 there were 506 second round draft picks. Of those, 262 (51.78%) never saw a day in the MLB. Of the remaining 244, 14 didn't sign but were re-drafted in the future and eventually made it to the MLB. That leaves 230 (45.45%) of the draftees who signed and eventually had an appearance in the MLB.

45% is a decent chance, but that includes players who possibly spent just 1 day on a big league team. When all players who played less than 100 games are removed, the total drops to just 22.92%, 49 pitchers and 67 position players. The list includes a few great players (Randy Johnson) and a number of solid players (Carlos Beltran), but also plenty of the Freddie Bynum variety.

So at what point is the trade-off worth it? Is it ever worth it for a relief pitcher? And if the Orioles aren't intended to compete in 2010, does it even matter? The argument could be made that a 2nd round draft pick with even just a 23% chance of making 100 major league appearances is more beneficial to the future of this team than a reliever who might be gone after 2011.

I'm not sure I buy that, though. If 2011 is indeed the year that the Orioles are supposed to make their big move into the pennant race, winning in 2010 is important as well. It's important for the young players who are developing, it's important when trying to land free agents, it's important to show the players that 2010 isn't another year to roll over. Opponents of this thought process will counter with the fact that adding Gonzalez might get the Orioles a few wins, but that's it. And what good will that do?

I think it all comes down to philosophy. The Gonzalez signing and the Millwood trade are, to me, a sign of a different Andy MacPhail. With phase one over, this is how he is tackling phase two. He decided that the benefits of Mike Gonzalez outweigh the potential of next year's 2nd round draft pick. And given the numbers, I can see his point.

Players drafted in the 2nd round, 1985-2001, with at least 100 games played

Player	Years Played	Total Games	Career OPS+	Player	Years Played	Total Games	Career ERA+
Tim Jones (INF)	1988-1993	252	68	Bruce Ruffin	1986-1997	469	98
Kirt Manwaring (C)	1987-1999	1008	69	Mike Schooler	1988-1992	260	136
Milt Cuyler (OF)	1990-1996, 1998	490	71	Randy Johnson	1988-2009	618	136
Dave Hansen (SS)	1990-2005	1230	99	Dave Otto	1987-1994	109	80
Todd Zeile (C/3B)	1989-2004	2158	103	Kevin Wickander	1989-1996	150	108
Todd Hundley (C)	1990-2003	1225	102	Roger Pavlik	1992-1998	131	103
Terry Shumpert (2B)	1990-2003	854	80	Erik Hanson	1988-1998	245	105
Albert Belle (OF)	1989-2000	1539	143	Kevin Tapani	1989-2001	139	99
Derek Bell (OF)	1991-2001	1210	99	Jeff Tabaka	1994-1998, 2001	130	96
Jeff Branson (SS)	1992-1998, 2000-2001	694	77	Dave Burba	1990-2004	511	99
Bob Hamelin (1B)	1993-1998	497	109	Richie Lewis	1992-1998	217	93
Dave Silvestri (SS)	1992-1999	181	65	Jeremy Hernandez	1991-1995	133	114
Scott Livingstone (3B)	1991-1998	673	86	Eric Grunderson	1990-92, 94-00	254	93
Brian Hunter (OF)	1994-2003	1000	72	Pete Schourek	1991-2001	288	91
Clay Belllinger (SS)	1999-2002	183	57	Arthur Rhodes	1991-2009	780	107
Andy Fox (3B)	1996-2004	776	73	Joe Slusarski	1991-93, 95, 99-01	118	81
Darrell Whitmore (OF)	1993-1995	112	44	Chris Nabholz	1990-1995	141	97
Jayhawk Owens (C)	1993-1996	130	73	Joe Grahe	1990-1995, 1999	187	100
Aaron Ledesma (SS)	1995, 1997-2000	283	81	Frank Rodriguez	1995-2001	184	88
Tim Hyers (1B)	1994-1996, 2000	133	55	Bob Wickman	1992-2007	835	125
Kevin Stocker (SS)	1994-1996, 1999-2004	846	79	Chris Haney	1991-2002	196	108
Herb Perry (3B)	1994-1996, 1999-2004	529	96	Bill Pulsipher	1995, 98-01, 05	106	63
Terrell Lowery (OF)	1997-2000	123	99	Mike Matthews	2000-2005	230	92
Bobby Hughes (C)	1998-1999	133	75	Jon Lieber	1994-2008	401	103
Jason Giambi (1B)	1995-2009	1952	143	Tim Crabtree	1995-2001	342	116
Brian Banks (C)	1996-1998, 2002-2003	273	83	Jeff Suppan	1995-2009	412	98
Scott Rolen (3B)	1996-2009	1748	124	Jay Witasick	1996-2007	405	97
Chris Singelton (OF)	1999-2003, 2005	704	87	Scott Sullivan	1995-2004	558	113
Greg Norton (3B)	1996-2009	1107	93	Bryan Rekar	1995-2002	131	87
Brad Fullmer (3B)	1997-2004	807	111	Jarrod Washburn	1998-2009	312	109
Mike Darr (OF)	1999-2001	188	93	Brett Tomko	1997-2009	389	92
George Lombard (OF)	1998-00, 2002-03, 06	144	68	Buddy Carlyle	1999-00, 05, 07-09	104	76
Mark Bellhorn (SS)	1997-2007	731	92	Randy Wolf	1999-2009	279	103
Ben Petrick (C)	1999-2003	240	88	Scott Linebrink	2000-2009	491	122
Marlon Anderson (2B)	1998-2009	1151	83	Tyler Walker	2002, 2004-09	262	101
Craig Wilson (C)	2001-2007	698	113	Chad Harville	1999, 01, 03-06	175	85
Carlos Beltran (OF)	1998-2009	1562	119	Aaron Cook	2002-2009	197	111
Sean Casey (1B)	1997-2008	1405	109	Matt Belisle	2003, 2005-2009	156	89
Henry Mateo (SS)	2001-2006	190	50	Gary Majewski	2004-2008	229	93
Jacque Jones (OF)	1999-2008	1302	98	John Lackey	2002-2009	234	117
Milton Bradley (OF)	2000-2009	941	115	Jack Taschner	2005-2009	202	88
Mike Caruso (SS)	1998-1999, 2002	281	66	Brian Tallet	2002-03, 2005-09	189	102
Brent Abernathy (SS)	2001-2003, 2005	232	67	Joel Hanrahan	2007-2009	148	89
Jimmy Rollins (SS)	2000-2009	1406	97	Manny Delcarmen	2005-2009	241	125
Josh Paul (OF)	1999-2007	321	68	Chad Qualls	2004-2009	241	125
Michael Restovich (OF)	2002-2007	152	79	Andrew Sisco	2005-2007	151	88
Rick Ankiel (OF)	1999-01, 2002, 07-09	342	98	Brandon League	2004-2009	168	108
Jason Grabowski (C)	2002-2005	190	62	Neal Cotts	2003-2009	284	100
Gerald Laird (C)	2003-2009	509	75	Danny Haren	2003-2009	196	123
Adam Dunn (OF)	2001-2009	1290	132
Brandon Inge (C)	2001-2009	1153	84
Jody Gerut (OF)	2003-2005, 2008-2009	542	105
Chris Magruder (OF)	2001-2005	270	66
Carl Crawford (OF)	2002-2009	1081	103
Rob Bowen (C)	2003-2004, 2006-2008	216	71
Brandon Phillips (2B)	2002-2009	736	90
Ryan Doumit (C)	2005-2009	410	104
Ryan Ludwick (OF)	2002-2009	515	117
Ben Broussard (1B)	2002-2008	705	105
Bobby Hill (2B)	2002-2005	249	83
Xavier Nady (OF)	2000, 2003-2009	679	108
Freddie Bynum (SS)	2005-2008	188	68
Lance Niekro (3B)	2003, 2005-2007	194	81
Kelly Shoppach (C)	2005-2009	571	95
J.J. Hardy (SS)	2005-2009	571	95
Dallas McPherson (3B)	2004-2006, 2008	128	102

Thursday Bird Droppings

Stacey — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 09:20:31 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Your Off-Season O's of the Day: ZAUN and Jim Johnson. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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See the articles below concerning the two newest Orioles and the rumors about Matt Holliday. Stick right here for the rest of the news.

PressBox: Guthrie Hopes He Can Erase Dismal Summer Memories
"There's much to be learned from this season," said Guthrie. "I think you become a better player and a better pitcher through adversity and learning from mistakes. So that will be something that I attempt to do, maximize what I can take from this season." -zknower

Mike Gonzalez Potentially an Oriole | FanGraphs Baseball
FanGraphs weighs in on the Gonzalez signing. Basically the same things that were said in the thread last night. Will he stay healthy? Do the O's even need to be spending money on a closer? $6M is too much? -Stacey

Statue to honor Brooks -- baltimoresun.com
Brooks Robinson is being honored with at statue created by the Baltimore Public Art Commission. Sounds great, except it gives me pause that it's being installed in the median between Pickles Pub and OPACY. Hopefully the drunks will be respectful. -Stacey

Orioles stadium details released | HeraldTribune.com
The Orioles won't be completely tearing down Ed Smith Stadium and won't change the basic design of the stadium. Picture included! -Stacey

FanFest to be held Jan 23rd
The past few years FanFest has been held at OPACY just before the season started, but they've gone back to the old setup this year at the Convention Center. Go meet all your favorite O's. Maybe Garrett Atkins will be there! -Stacey

Sidney Ponson named ESPN.com's worst pitcher of the 2000s
The judge-punching, DWI-getting, hungover-pitching Sidney Ponson has been named the worst starting pitcher of the decade. As the article says, his numbers weren't the worst, but when you look at the entire package it's hard to argue. -Stacey

Steroid user Bigbie makes Ball State Hall of Fame
Larry Bigbie is being honored....ok then. -Stacey

Done: Phils get Doc; Lee to Mariners
The biggest trade of the off season is complete. Here's what everyone got: Philly lands Roy Halladay (and Roy lands a 3 year extension) and prospects Phillippe Aumont, JC Ramirez, and Tyson Gillies. Seattle gets Cliff Lee for one year. Toronto gets prospects Kyle Drabek, Travis d'Arnaud, and Brett Wallace. Oakland gets prospect Michael Taylor. Got it? Need a diagram? -Stacey

You're as cuddly as a cactus, you're as charming as an eel, Open Thread!

Rumor: Orioles interested in Matt Holliday

Stacey — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 06:15:24 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Matt ponders the possibility of being reunited with Garrett Atkins. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi report that the Orioles are pursuing, at some level, Matt Holliday.

The Orioles have jumped into the bidding, though both the seriousness of their efforts and Holliday’s desire to play in Baltimore are in question, major-league sources say.

Holliday, 29, is unlikely to go to the Orioles — a team coming off 12 straight losing seasons — unless they make him a much stronger offer than the Cardinals

The article details a number of reasons Holliday to the O's makes sense, including the O's young talent, their low payroll, and the fact that Holliday and new Oriole Garrett Atkins are BFF.

I think everyone would agree that, regardless of whether or not it's a good idea, the chance of Holliday coming to the O's is a long shot at best. Unfortunately for Scott Boras and Matt Holliday, neither the Yankees or Red Sox seem interested in signing the left fielder. It's possible that the Cardinals are bidding against themselves right now and somebody put the word out there that the Orioles are in it to give the illusion that there is more demand than actually exists.

If the Orioles are legitimately interested in Matt Holliday, I personally don't think it's a good idea. It's not that I think he's not a good player; he's obviously quite good. But he's going to cost a ton of money and he plays the outfield. Of all the problems the Orioles currently have, the outfield isn't one. The rumored offer on the table from the Cardinals is 5 years at $16M/year, and you'd have to think the O's would need to go beyond that to get Holliday to Baltimore. With Nick Markakis and Adam Jones anchored in the outfield, Nolan Reimold not far behind, and Felix Pie ready to pick up any slack, that's $16M a year that would be much better served filling the O's needs in the infield or to continue to build up the pitching staff.

Of course, signing Holliday would provide the Orioles with the flexibility to trade Reimold or move him to DH. I don't know what kind of trade value he'd have right now as he's had part of one successful major league season and is coming off injury. But moving him to DH would allow Luke Scott to be traded, or if not, put at 1B on a regular basis. Holliday could also DH some to give Pie time in the outfield. I mean, it does open up possibilities.

But $16M a year for an outfielder? Count me out.

Report: O's sign LHP Mike Gonzalez and 3B Garrett Atkins

Stacey — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 01:39:43 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

2 months ago: Atlanta Braves relief pitcher Mike Gonzalez delivers against the Washington Nationals in the ninth inning of a baseball game in Washington, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009. Atlanta won 6-3. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

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From The Baltimore Sun:

Looking to solidify the back end of their bullpen, the Orioles are nearing an agreement on a two-year deal with free agent left-handed reliever Mike Gonzalez, according to industry sources.

Terms of the contract are not known at this point, but Gonzalez -- who spent last season with the Atlanta Braves -- will have to pass a physical before the deal is complete. He's scheduled to take a physical in Baltimore within the next couple of days. The signing of Gonzalez, who is a Type A free agent, will cost the Orioles their second-round pick in the 2010 Draft.

Mike Gonzalez has been are reliable reliever for pretty much his entire career, though he's spent it completely in the National League East. He'll be 32 years old in 2010 and I'm guessing will serve as the O's closer. I like him in the Orioles bullpen although I'm not crazy about giving up a second round draft pick for a reliever.

More details will be posted as they arrive. In the meantime, welcome to Birdland, Mike Gonzalez! Check out his career stats below the jump.

Update; 9:12 p.m.: Tim Brown from Yahoo! is reporting that the deal is for 2 years, $12M with incentives that could make it as high as $16M. Um, wow. Overpayment alert.

Update, 10:49 p.m.: Andy MacPhail doesn't waste any time! Now the Sun is reporting that the O's have also signed 3B Garrett Atkins to a 1 year deal (terms still unknown)

The Orioles are pursuing several third baseman but it appears that Garrett Atkins, who was recently non-tendered by the Colorado Rockies, has become one of their top targets. Atkins, 30, hit just .226 with nine homers and 48 RBIs for the Rockies last season, but he averaged 25 homers and 110 RBIs the previous three seasons.

The good news is Atkins won't cost a draft pick and he'll be easy to push aside if and when Josh Bell is ready. He'll be 30 years old in 2010 and has spent his entire career with the Rockies. Since he is from Colorado, let's go ahead and check his home and away splits. Not really very confidence inspiring. Full stats below the jump.

Welcome to Birdland, Garrett Atkins!

                                                                                                          
Year   Age  Tm Lg  W  L  ERA   G  GF SV    IP   H  R ER HR  BB IBB  SO ERA+  WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2003    25 PIT NL  0  1 7.56  16   2  0   8.1   7  7  7  4   6   0   6   58 1.560 7.6  4.3  6.5  6.5  1.00
2004    26 PIT NL  3  1 1.25  47  12  1  43.1  32  7  6  2   6   0  55  346 0.877 6.6  0.4  1.2 11.4  9.17
2005    27 PIT NL  1  3 2.70  51  15  3  50.0  35 15 15  2  31   2  58  157 1.320 6.3  0.4  5.6 10.4  1.87
2006    28 PIT NL  3  4 2.17  54  47 24  54.0  42 13 13  1  31   2  64  205 1.352 7.0  0.2  5.2 10.7  2.06
2007    29 ATL NL  2  0 1.59  18   5  2  17.0  15  3  3  0   8   0  13  274 1.353 7.9  0.0  4.2  6.9  1.63
2008    30 ATL NL  0  3 4.28  36  29 14  33.2  26 21 16  6  14   3  44   98 1.188 7.0  1.6  3.7 11.8  3.14
2009    31 ATL NL  5  4 2.42  80  29 10  74.1  56 28 20  7  33   8  90  170 1.197 6.8  0.8  4.0 10.9  2.73
7 Seasons         14 16 2.57 302 139 54 280.2 213 94 80 22 129  15 330  166 1.219 6.8  0.7  4.1 10.6  2.56

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/16/2009.

                                                                                      
Year   Age  Tm   G   PA   AB   R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+   TB
2003    23 COL  25   73   69   6  11   2  0  0   4   3  14 .159 .205 .188 .394   -2   13
2004    24 COL  15   33   28   3  10   2  0  1   8   4   3 .357 .424 .536 .960  135   15
2005    25 COL 138  573  519  62 149  31  1 13  89  45  72 .287 .347 .426 .773   93  221
2006    26 COL 157  695  602 117 198  48  1 29 120  79  76 .329 .409 .556 .965  136  335
2007    27 COL 157  684  605  83 182  35  1 25 111  67  96 .301 .367 .486 .853  113  294
2008    28 COL 155  664  611  86 175  32  3 21  99  40 100 .286 .328 .452 .780   96  276
2009    29 COL 126  399  354  37  80  12  1  9  48  41  58 .226 .308 .342 .650   66  121
7 Seasons      773 3121 2788 394 805 162  7 98 479 279 419 .289 .354 .457 .811  102 1275

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/16/2009.

The Baltimore Orioles All-Awful Lineup: 2000-2009

Stacey — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 21:20:46 -0000

More photos » by Chris Pizzello - AP

He has the WS ring and perhaps the last laugh, but he is still the worst 2B the O's had in the 2000s. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello)

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I've encountered a number of articles around the web regarding the top 10 best things about this decade, be it movies, baseball players, or one-hit wonders. It's fair to say that I'm not above stealing someone else's idea, but given the that Orioles have spent the last decade in the toilet, it seems more appropriate to name the worst players of the decade, not the best. If there is one thing this Orioles fan likes to do, it's revel in failure. But if you're looking for a silver lining to the All-Awfuls, here it is: None of them came from the 2009 team and none of them will be on the team in 2010.

Catcher: Brook Fordyce

The candidates: Charles Johnson (2000), Brook Fordyce (2000-2003), Geronimo Gil (2002), Javy Lopez (2004-2006), Ramon Hernandez (2006-2008), Matt Wieters (2009)

Fordyce came to the Orioles in 2000, traded from the White Sox along with a handful of scrubs for Charles Johnson and Harold Baines. In 312 games from 2000-2003, Fordyce hit .257/.306/.379 (OPS+ 81). 2001 was especially awful for Fordyce as he hit just .209/.268/.322 in 95 games. Whatever the Orioles had in mind for Fordyce. it didn't work out. He was a complete failure as both offensively and defensively as he only managed to catch 58 base stealers out of 307 (18.8%) as an Oriole.

First Base: Rafael Palmeiro

The candidates: Will Clark (2000), Jeff Conine (2000-2003), Rafael Palmeiro (2004-2005), Kevin Millar (2006-2008), Aubrey Huff (2007-2009)

The numbers on the field may not back this up, but the only possible answer is Rafael Palmeiro. His positive steroid test in 2005, the subsequent denials and throwing of a fellow player under the bus, the ear plugs to drown out the boos, and his quiet departure from the team all help make the decision easy. Straight numbers-wise, the award probably goes to Aubrey Huff. He wasn't good in 2009 and league average in 2007 while splitting time at first with Kevin Millar. Although honestly, none of them was great shakes, so Palmeiro wins for emotional abuse of the fans.

Second Base: Jerry Hairston

The candidates: Delino DeShields (2000), Jerry Hairston (2001-2004), Brian Roberts (2003-2009)

This award has to go to Jerry Hairston. We all know the value of Brian Roberts, and Delino DeShields had a very solid 2000 at 2B. Hairston could never quite take advantage of his chances. He went from getting the majority of the playing time at 2B in 2001 and 2002 to losing time to Brian Roberts to being used as a utility man to being traded for Sammy Sosa. Overall he played 474 games for the Orioles in this decade with an OPS+ of 89.

Third Base: Cal Ripken

Candidates: Cal Ripken (2000-2001), Tony Batista (2002-2003), Melvin Mora (2004-2009)

Ok so here's the thing. Both Cal Ripken and Tony Batista were pretty lousy in their two year spans. I want to give the Awful Award to Tony Batista, I really do. But I don't think that I can. Cal Ripken was straight up bad in 2000 and 2001. As bad as Batista was, Cal was worse. From 2000-2001, he hit .246/.290/.347 with 29 HR and 32 2B. Batista hit .239/.290/.425 with 57 HR and 56 2B. The power is really the only difference, but it's enough to give Cal the edge in the awards voting. Argue with me if you like, but know that I feel bad enough about it already.

Shortstop: The Five Headed Monster

Candidates: Mike Bordick (2000-2002), Deivi Cruz (2003), Miguel Tejada (2004-2007), Brandon Fahey/Juan Castro/Alex Cintron/Luis Hernandez/Freddie Bynum (2008), Cesar Izturis (2009)

Deivi Cruz had this award all but locked up until 2008 rolled around. In 152 games in 2003 he hit a lousy .250/.269/.378 with 14 HR and 13 BB, a dark spot at SS between Bordick and Tejada. But after the trade of Tejada, the Five Headed Monster set out to prove that no matter how bad one player can play a position, five guys can play even worse. In 2008 they hit a combined .217/.257/.277 with 3 HR and 18 2B. Well done, guys, you put together one of the worse offensive seasons at SS in history.

Outfield: Jay Payton, Luis Matos, and Sammy Sosa

Candidates: Brady Anderson (2000-2001), Jeff Conine (2000-2003, 2006), B.J. Surhoff (2000, 2003-2005), Albert Belle (2000), Chris Richard (2000), Melvin Mora (2001-2003), Chris Singleton (2002), Gary Matthews Jr. (2002-2003), Jay Gibbons (2001-2007), Luis Matos (2001-2006), Larry Bigbie (2001-2005), David Newhan (2004-2006), Sammy Sosa (2005), Nick Markakis (2006-2009), Corey Patterson (2006-2007), Jay Payton (2007-2008), Adam Jones (2008-2009), Luke Scott (2008-2009), Nolan Reimold (2009), Felix Pie (2009)

The Orioles outfield has pretty much been a hot mess this entire decade. If I ever get the urge in 2010 to complain about Reimold, Jones, Markakis, or Pie, someone please direct me to this list. I mean, look at some of those names. Minus the oldest names and the newest names, it's basically a list of players I can't stand. I immediately wanted to crown Jay Gibbons the winner , but honestly he wasn't the worst, not by a long shot. That honor goes to the other Jay, Jay Payton. From 2007-2008, Jay Payton played in 258 games for the Orioles in the outfield, second only to Nick Markakis' 318 games. Over the two year span he hit .250/.292/.363 with an OPS+ of 72. That combined with his chronic whining and the time he picked a fight with Melvin Mora in the dugout give him the title of worst Oriole outfielder of the 2000s. Congrats, Jay Pay!

Much like his BFF Cal, Brady Anderson's last two years as an Oriole were nothing be proud of. Unlike Cal, there have been enough lousy outfielders since then that Brady escaped this list. Luis Matos and Sammy Sosa, come on down! From 2000-2006 the injury prone Matos played in 494 games for the Orioles with a robust line of .256/.313/.375. One decent season afforded him 2.5 more years of horridness before the Orioles finally got rid of him. Sosa only spent one year (and not even really that) as an Oriole, but it was one of the more pathetic seasons I can recall. Anyone wondering why he was obtained for the bargain price of Jerry Hairston and Mike Fontenot found out why after seeing him play. He missed a number of games due to injury, the games he played were awful, and by all accounts he stirred up quite a bit of strife in the clubhouse with Miguel Tejada. Sosa was MIA for about the last month of the season, and one of my favorite stories from the Baltimore Sun of the whole year was about how the Orioles couldn't find Sammy Sosa.

Hell of a lineup. We Orioles fans have had it rough this decade. I think we're finally due for some happiness, don't you?

(Note: I tried to include pitching in this but it was just too daunting of a task. Perhaps some other time.)

Monday Bird Droppings

Stacey — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 13:01:14 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Your Off-Season O's of the Day: Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, and Cesar Izturis (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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This is short and fast as I have to get to work, not to mention I cannot find anything newsworthy. It's as though everyone involved in major league baseball took the day off yesterday to watch football. Here are the few things I managed to find.

Luke Scott talks pitching
As in, he thinks they need more. He also wants to concede games against the #1 by throwing your #5 against him (interestingly, he labels Tillman as a #5).

What to do about Hernandez?
Jeff Zrebiec, believes David Hernandez belongs in the bullpen. Very insightful.

Other than that, I got nothing. That makes today a build-your-own open thread. Post some links if you got 'em!

Sarasota leader has no regrets about Cubs
"Though (County Commissioner Joe) Barbetta still believes the Cubs could be a major economic boon for any city, he said he has no regrets signing up with the Orioles and missing a chance to bring in a team with one of the most loyal fan bases in the nation. "Not at the price we got with the Orioles," Barbetta said. The Orioles agreed to a $31 million renovation of Ed Smith Stadium." So there you go. -duck

Happy Holidays from the Hunters
"Holiday Greetings everyone. " Sure, there's more from Jim Hunter, but that's about all you need to read. -duck

No closer to a decision on a closer
Roch says: "Since the Orioles don't appear to be in any hurry to sign a closer, we can debate the merits of another one that hit the market yesterday, right-hander Matt Capps, who was non-tendered by the Pittsburgh Pirates." There's nothing else to do but go through possible trade/signing targets one by one in a week like this. -duck

SPORTS BRIEFS: Montgomery's Bass a baseball free agent
"Montgomery (Ala.) native Brian Bass was not offered a contract by the Baltimore Orioles by Saturday night's deadline, making the right-handed pitcher a free agent. Bass was 5-3 with a 4.90 ERA in 48 appearances for the Orioles this year. He's a Robert E. Lee High graduate." Because everyone has a home town. For some reason, I always want to read the hometown's paper description of events in a player's career. -duck

More Beef for Tillman
The O's want the lanky pitcher to put on a few pounds this off-season to help him build his strength. Oh, and add him to the list of hunters (not that I'm especially interested in that topic anymore). -Stacey

Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle all the way. Oh, what fun it is to ride in a one-horse Open Thread!

Report: Deal in Place to send Millwood to Baltimore for Chris Ray

Stacey — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:37:14 -0000

More photos » by Tom Olmscheid - AP

Looks like Kevin Millwood is an Oriole.(AP Photo/Tom Olmscheid)

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EDIT [Stacey, 11:08 PM]: This is officially a done deal. Ray and a PTBNL to the Rangers, Millwood and cash to the O's. Lots of feel good quotes and such in this Sun article

Per Jeff Zriebec at the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles have a tentative deal in place with the Texas Rangers that would bring starting pitcher Kevin Millwood to the Orioles and send up-and-down relief pitcher Chris Ray to the Rangers. The Rangers would also send an undetermined amount of money to the Orioles to help offset Millwood's $12M salary. The deal is contingent upon review of medical records but could be finished by this evening.

I went on record just over a week ago with my belief that Kevin Millwood would be a bad pickup for the Orioles. I'm still not super excited about it, but the fact is that Chris Ray is hardly worth getting upset over. It's clear the Rangers needed to dump salary and this is how they chose to do so. It's clear the Orioles wanted to pick up a veteran starter and this his how they chose to do so.

In 2009 the Orioles desperately needed a pitcher who could pitch deep into games, and it's likely Millwood will give them that in 2010. In 31 starts in 2009, Millwood went at least 5 innings in all but two starts, one of which was due to a rain delay. He pitched at least 6 innings in 23 of his starts. In his 13 year career Millwood has averaged 178 innings/year and has that includes his rookie year in 1997 when he threw 51 innings over 12 starts. For his career he averages 6.133 innings/game.

I don't hate this deal. I don't love it, but I don't hate it. Best case scenario is that Millwood gives the Orioles more than 6 innings/start and is flipped for a few extra players after Jake Arrieta has established that he's ready to join the rotation. Mid-case he's with the O's all year, provides stability, and gives the bullpen a break. Worst case is that his 35 year old body will start to break down and the O's will have spent a load of cash on nothing.

So welcome to Birdland, Kevin Millwood. Treat us right and we'll like you ok.

As for the player leaving the birds, Chris Ray has had a few shining moments with the Orioles but in recent history has proven to be expendable. He'd been with the club since 2005, the only Oriole who could say that other than Brian Roberts. After a good rookie season setting up B.J. Ryan, Ray took the sting out of Ryan's departure by earning 33 saves with a 2.73 ERA (167 ERA+) in 2006. A substandard 2007 was cut short by injury and he missed the entire 2008 season after having elbow surgery. The O's had high hopes for him in 2009 but he couldn't deliver. He bounced between the O's, AAA Norfolk, and the disabled list, racking up a 7.27 ERA in 46 appearances.

I always liked Chris Ray, but it got so that I didn't like seeing him come into games. Godspeed, young man. Thanks for 2006.