As a Bay Area resident, I have watched almost every 49ers (and Steelers) game this year. Based on this experience, I can offer my perspectives on the 49ers and how they might fare against our Steelers in the big Monday Night matchup just nine days from now.

49ers Overview

Although much improved from last year, the 49ers are not as good as their gaudy 10-2 record. Living in the languid NFC West, they have played only four teams with a winning record, beating the Lions (7-5) and Bengals (7-5) while losing to the Cowboys (7-5) and Ravens (9-3). The 49ers combine a talented and aggressive defense with a mediocre but conservative offense. Amazingly, the team leads the NFL in both most takeaways (28) and fewest giveaways (10), which obviously makes them the leader in turnover ratio. As an easy point of reference, think of this team as the 2010 Ravens without the trash talk.

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With the top three teams in the AFC North tied at three losses each, the division will be decided by the teams' performance in their remaining games. This post looks at the schedules for the Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals and presents three ways for the Steelers to win the division.

Here are the remaining games for each team, listed in order of opponents record:

Steelers: at SF (8-1), vs CIN (6-3), at KC (4-5), at CLE (3-6), vs CLE (3-6), vs STL (2-7), BYE

Ravens: vs SF (8-1), at CIN (6-3), vs CIN (6-3), at SD (4-5), at CLE (3-6), vs CLE (3-6), vs IND (0-10)

Bengals: at PIT (7-3), vs TEX (7-3), at BAL (6-3), vs BAL (6-3), vs CLE (3-6), vs ARI (3-6), at STL (2-7)

The following tables presents this in a more visual fashion, pairing similar opponents on the same rows:

As we can see, the Steelers' remaining schedule is bottom heavy, with only two teams that have winning records. The Ravens, in contrast, face three such teams. The Bengals' schedule is top heavy, with four games against winning teams. The Ravens and Bengals, in fact, play each other twice, so if either team wins both games, the other will be essentially eliminated from the division lead, and if they split, both will fall behind the Steelers.

As we know, the Ravens hold a tiebreaker over the Steelers on the basis of winning both games head-to-head. To win the division, the Steelers need to gain one game on the Ravens. Based on the table above, here are three ways this can happen:

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The Steelers are going to their third Super Bowl in six seasons. This year's team, however, is hardly the same as the team that went to Super Bowl XL or even XLIII. The Steelers management has been able to rebuild the team on the fly, keeping a core of veteran stars while adding and replacing the parts around them. As a result, the Steelers have a host of players with Super Bowl experience but several younger, hungrier players as well. Let's take a look at how it was done. Here is the starting defense for Super Bowls XL, XLIII, and XLV:

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Bumped again. One of my favorite 'level-headed' BTSC'ers updates this post for the second consecutive week. Hey, looks like I might need to be dropping my weekly defense comparison post, so this serves as a nice interim substitute for at least this week. - Michael Bean -

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Did I jinx my favorite NFL team by ranking them #1 last week? Oops. Won't make that mistake again. This week's rankings are extended to include all 7-2 and 6-3 teams in the NFL--and there are a lot of them. Like last time, I have solely considered a team's record against quality opponents--teams that currently have a winning record for the year. This time, I have ranked the teams strictly in order of winning percentage against quality opponents, breaking ties by number of quality wins and number of quality road wins. And the best team in the NFL is...

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Bumped from the fanposts. I'd been meaning to write something similar, and Steelin' does a great job laying out all the information cleanly and informatively. Thanks to him for the write-up. - Michael B. -

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At the midpoint of the season, how should we rank the top NFL teams? Most ranking systems are based on overall record. Instead, I will look only at games against quality opponents, ignoring games in which teams beat up a hapless loser. Who cares that the Patriots beat Buffalo? For my analysis, I define “quality opponent” as a team with a winning record or road game against a team with a .500 record. Note that opponents meeting this standard will change as the season goes on, because team’s records can change. For most of the opponents on this list, however, we can assume that if they have a winning record at the halfway point, they will probably continue to do so.

The following chart summarizes the record of the top six teams in the NFL when facing quality opponents:

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The draft provides an important opportunity to look into the minds of the Steelers braintrust (Colbert, Tomlin, etc). What they didn't do is as important as what they did do. Here is what the 2010 draft says to me about the thinking of the Steelers' front office:

* Willie Colon is a keeper at RT. The team had an unexpected chance to draft Brian Baluga in the first round. Although downgraded on some boards, Baluga was generally regarded as one of the top tackles available. By passing on Baluga for an interior lineman, Maurkice Pouncey, the FO indicates that they are not interested in replacing Colon (or shifting him to guard).

* Limas Sweed looks like a bust. The loss of Santonio Holmes could have thrust former second-round pick Sweed into the third- or fourth-WR spot. Instead, the team signed Antwaan Randle-El to be the third receiver and drafted two more WRs, including third-rounder Emmanuel Sanders. With special-teams demon Arnez Battle penciled into the fifth-WR spot, it now appears possible that Sweed will not even make the roster, unless there is an injury or the team goes with six WRs.

* The LaMarr Woodley negotiations are not going well. This one is controversial, but my take on the Steelers choosing not one but two OLBs in the first four rounds is that they plan on replacing Woodley after his contract expires at the end of the 2010 season. Remember when Joey Porter left before the 2007 season? The team responded by drafting two LBs, Woodley and Lawrence Timmons, in the first two rounds. Drafting two players at a position of need gives the team Plan A and Plan B, which paid off in 2007 when Timmons, the first pick, was slow to develop. Unlike last time, the new guys have a year to train up before one has to become a starter.

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In Part 1 of this post, I analyzed various statistical metrics from the 2009 NFL season to determine which has the best correlation to winning. Here, I provide the Steelers' ranking (1-32) among all NFL teams for the most important metrics. This data should help determine where things went wrong and how to fix them.

The Steelers offense ranked #7 in yards gained but only #14 in net offensive points. (For net points, I have subtracted points scored by the defense and special teams. I also subtracted points scored by the other team when the offense was on the field, i.e. pick-six and fumble returns.) As the correlations show, net points is the most important metric, and in this light, the Steelers offense is entirely mediocre.

Why the big difference between yards and points? The common criticism is red-zone problems, but the Steelers offense actually ranked better (#11) in red-zone scoring than overall scoring. The bigger problems were drive-killing sacks and interceptions. Interceptions can also turn into points for the other team. Another weakness is third-down conversions.

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What are the keys to winning football games? I have done a statistical analysis of the 2009 season to determine which metrics (yards, sacks, etc) have the most effect on winning percentage. The answers may surprise and dismay long-time Steelers fans. (For Johnny and other math guys, I applied a linear regression between each metric and the winning pct. for all 32 teams, then calculated the correlation coefficient R, which I have expressed as a percentage for simplicity.) I examined more than 50 different metrics and summarized the highlights.

Let's start with a truism: the team that scores the most points wins. Scoring points has a 88% correlation with winning. Gaining yards is good, but only if it leads to scoring. I've also included net points for the offense, which subtracts return TDs; this metric is slightly better than points scored.

Now here's something interesting: running the football successfully has zero (0%) correlation to winning. None. Passing, on the other hand, has a very high correlation, particularly passing efficiency (yards per pass attempt). Not giving up sacks is important, as they reduce passing efficiency. Limiting interceptions is even more important. Fumbles appear to be random events that affect bad teams only slightly more than teams.

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Where did things really go wrong for the Steelers this season? The 1-2 start was disappointing, but the team recovered and went on a 5-game winning streak, including impressive victories over the Chargers, Broncos, and Vikings. The second Bengals loss ended that streak, and with Troy Polamalu injured again, the team was down. But a favorable schedule gave the Steelers a clear path to a wild-card spot and, with a little help, the possibility of still winning the AFC North.

On a chilly day in Kansas City, however, it took only 16 seconds for things to go horribly wrong, as Jamaal Charles returned the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown. Although the Steelers recovered and led 17-7 at the half, Ben Roethlisberger had to keep throwing and, in the third quarter, threw two interceptions that allowed the Chiefs to tie the score. The contest eventually went into overtime, where the Steelers lost not only the game but also Roethlisberger, who got a concussion while running for a first down. Without their starting QB, the Steelers lost to the Ravens the next week. Even after Big Ben returned, the team lost two more games for good measure to fall to 6-7 and out of the playoff picture.

In hindsight, the opening kickoff of the Chiefs game was the turning point of the whole season. If the Steelers can cover that kickoff, they lead 17-0 at the half and win the ball game in regulation. Without overtime, Ben does not get hurt. With a healthy Roethlisberger, the Steelers easily win in Baltimore (even without Ben, the Steelers tied the Ravens at the end of regulation time). With these two wins in hand, the Steelers finish at least 11-5, win the AFC North, and take the third seed in the playoffs.

Before the Chiefs game, the Steelers had already matched the worst NFL teams of the past decade in giving up three kickoff-return touchdowns in a single season, including one just the week before that contributed to the loss to Cincinnati. Yet Coach Tomlin had made no apparent changes to the kickoff coverage. Only after the Chiefs game did he begin to make personnel changes, bringing in Rocky Boiman and eventually returning Anthony Madison to the team. Perhaps if he had taken action a week sooner, the Steelers would now be planning for a home playoff game against the New York Jets instead of wondering which coaches to fire.

Even if we don't win the AFC North, all is not lost. If the current standings hold up, the AFC playoff seedings would be:

1. Colts
2. Bengals
3. Patriots
4. Broncos (tiebreaker over SD)
5. Steelers
6. Chargers

In the first round, Steelers at Denver is a game that we just won, so we should be able to handle that. Assuming other seedings hold, in the second round we would play the Colts at Indy. A tough assignment, to be sure, but the Colts routinely fold in the playoffs. A win there could send the Steelers into Cincinnati for the big re-rematch, winner-take-all for a Super Bowl berth. Can the Bengals beat the Steelers three times in one season? It would be fun to find out.

If these playoff matchups sound familiar, it's because in 2005, the Steelers won road playoff games in Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Denver. I'm not saying it will happen again. But it could. So for the 77% percent of you that think the Steelers will be a wild-card team, that's not such a bad thing.

When the 2009 schedules were released, the AFC North caught a break by matching up against the weak AFC West and mediocre NFC North. In fact, the Steelers' schedule was rated the 4th easiest in the NFL, the Ravens' schedule was 5th easiest, and the Bengals' was 11th (mainly because they had to play the Ravens and Steelers twice each). These ratings were based on opponents' 2008 winning percentages.

At nearly the midpoint of the 2009 season, things are not looking so easy, due to the improvement of teams such as the Vikings, Packers,  Broncos, and the Bengals themselves. Let's take a look at how the schedules are rated now, based on 2009 opponent winning percentage (opp pct), and more important, which AFC North team has the most favorable schedule remaining.

The Ravens' schedule has become much more difficult at 0.550. In addition to the aforementioned teams, the Ravens must play the undefeated Colts and have already lost to the Patriots. Having completed the brutal (0.571) portion of their schedule, the Ravens now face the merely difficult (0.534) portion, which includes the Colts, the Bengals, two games against the Steelers, and a road game against the 4-3 Packers. So far, the Ravens are 2-3 against tough opponents; if they continue at the same pace, they could finish 10-6.

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When the 2009 schedules were released, the AFC North caught a break by matching up against the weak AFC West and mediocre NFC North. In fact, the Steelers' schedule was rated the 4th easiest in the NFL, the Ravens' schedule was 5th easiest, and the Bengals' was 11th (mainly because they had to play the Ravens and Steelers twice each). These ratings were based on opponents' 2008 winning percentages.

At nearly the midpoint of the 2009 season, things are not looking so easy, due to the improvement of teams such as the Vikings, Packers,  Broncos, and the Bengals themselves. Let's take a look at how the schedules are rated now, based on 2009 opponent winning percentage (opp pct), and more important, which AFC North team has the most favorable schedule remaining.

The Steelers' opponents had a 0.434 winning percentage in 2008, but so far in 2009, they have a 0.461 percentage. The improvement in the aforementioned teams has been softened a bit by the collapse of the Titans and, to a lesser extent, the Dolphins. So far this season, the Steelers are 3-0 against lousy teams and 2-2 against teams with a winning record, both losses coming on the road. If the Steelers maintain this pattern, they will finish 12-4 or 11-5.

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The 3-0 Ravens visit the 2-1 Patriots this Sunday. Whenever I watch a game, it's hard for me not to favor one team or the other. Sometimes I like certain players or coaches, sometimes I root for the underdog. So my question to you is, if you watch this game, who do you root for? Yeah, I know, the easy answer is neither, so maybe the question should be, who do you root against less? After all, someone has to win.

After some thought, I came up with a few things I like (or at least respect) about the Ravens:

1) They have a tough D, like the Steelers.

2) Their QB looks like he came from a steel town instead of a men's fashion show.

3) Their coach doesn't act like a hoodie-wearing android.

4) They're not cheaters.

And my favorite thing about the Ravens:  they are polite enough to lose to us in the playoffs.

After some thought, I cannot think of anything that I like about the Patriots.

Assuming that Ben calls the plays when we go to the no-huddle offense, here is a quick summary of the Steelers' drives from last night, broken down by play caller. Note that we ran the no-huddle for the last two drives of each half, plus overtime.

Arians: 8 drives, 35 plays, 62 yards (1.8 yards per play), 0 points

Ben: 5 drives, 37 plays, 270 yards (7.3 yards per play), 13 points

7.3 yards per play!  That's just sick. And 1.8 yards per play, that is, well, sick in a bad way.

Here is the outcome of each drive:

Arians: punt, punt, punt, interception, punt, punt, punt, punt

Ben: TD, end of half, FG, fumble on opponents 5-yard line, FG

The only things that stopped the "Ben" drives from scoring every time was running out of time at the end of the first half (officially, an interception on the Hail Mary, but only because there wasn't time for anything else) and Hines' fumble. In fact, the third drive was well on its way to being a touchdown, with a 2nd-and-2 from the Tennessee 10, when the team suddenly stopped passing and failed to convert the third down. (I wonder who called those two running plays?) The final drive could also have generated a touchdown, but the Steelers opted for a game-winning FG on first down from the Tennessee 15.

So the two obvious questions are (1) Why don't we run the no-huddle all the time? (2) Why is Arians still calling any plays?

Bumped. I'm absolutely beat to shreds from real work obligations this past week so I'm happy to promote something to the main page that's well written and a potential conversation starter. Thanks to Steelin for the post. Not sure I agree on every last front, at least in terms of how he rates the likelihood of each action item, but just about everything is still in play with the front office priorities noted below. - Blitz-

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With everyone mocking the draft, here are some non-draft items that might or might not be on Kevin Colbert’s to-do list, along with my personal prediction of how likely each one is to be completed before the season starts. Please chime in with your thoughts on whether the Steelers should be doing these or other things.

1) Extend James Harrison’s Contract

As has been extensively discussed, Harrison’s contract expires after 2009. Harrison is a crucial part of the defense, and the team has indicated that extending Harrison is a top priority. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year is likely to want a long-term deal for $8 million to $10 million per year, however, and the Steelers do not like to give big contracts to players that are over 30 years old. Even if the Steelers wanted to grant such a contract, it is not clear that they have the cap room to do so....LIKELIHOOD:  LOW

2) Sign Max Starks To A Long-Term Contract

For the second year in a row, the Steelers have tagged Starks to avoid losing him. Although Starks was the team’s starting left tackle throughout their Super Bowl season, he is generally not considered among the league’s elite OTs, yet the Steelers are slated to pay him nearly $8.5 million in 2009. Furthermore, if the Steelers are forced to tag Starks again for 2010, his salary would increase to more than $10 million. The Steelers should be able to negotiate a long-term contract at a fair salary of $6-$7 million per year, locking up their left tackle for multiple years and gaining cap room. Starks would benefit by having guaranteed money (the franchise salary is not guaranteed) and long-term stability. Thus, both sides should be motivated to make this happen....LIKELIHOOD:  HIGH

3) Extend Hines Ward’s Contract

Ward remains the Steelers’ #1 receiver, despite Santonio Holmes’ heroics in the Super Bowl (a game in which an injured Ward did not contribute at his usual level). In 2008, Ward posted his best season since 2004, gaining 1,043 yards on 81 receptions and scoring 7 touchdowns. Ward’s cap number for 2009, the final year of his current contract, is $7.8 million (third highest on the team). Although Ward’s production is likely to decline with age, he is more valuable to the Steelers than any other NFL team, due to his ferocious blocking and veteran leadership. If Ward and his agent realize this, they should accept a three-year extension at a moderate salary. Such a deal would reduce the Steeler’s 2009 cap number, help ensure that Ward retires as a Steeler, and give the team leverage when negotiating Holmes’ contract in 2010.....LIKELIHOOD:  MEDIUM TO HIGH

4) Extend Heath Miller’s Contract

Starting TE Miller, playing in the last year of his rookie contract, is set to make only $800,000 in 2009, counting $2.4 million against the cap due to prorated bonuses. Miller has never made the Pro Bowl but is one of the better tight ends in the NFL and a solid contributor to the Steelers’ offense, both as a blocker and as a receiver. His backup, Matt Spaeth, has not shown consistency in either area, despite being a third-round draft pick, and does not appear ready to step in to a starting role. Thus, the Steelers would be well served to sign Miller to new long-term contract. If the contract is structured as an extension, with a signing bonus paid in 2009, it should not significantly burden the Steeler’s 2009 cap figure. But if Miller’s agent demands a top-end salary, the deal might not get done. ....LIKELIHOOD:  MEDIUM TO HIGH

5) Sign A Veteran Wide Receiver

With the departure of Nate Washington, the inexperienced Limas Sweed is penciled into the #3 receiver role, and the #4 receiver could be an even less experienced Dallas Baker, Martin Nance, or a rookie draft pick. Given how often the Steelers line up in three- and four-wide sets, this lineup is problematic. A veteran WR would provide insurance in case Sweed falters or if an injury occurs to Ward, Holmes, or Sweed. The Steelers can’t afford to pay a significant salary to a player likely to be the #4 receiver, but a number of experienced players might be willing to sign at or slightly above the veteran minimum. Possibilities include Mike Furrey (ex-Lions), David Patten (ex-Saints), Marty Booker (ex-Bears), Joe Jurevicius (ex-Browns), and Ike Hillard (ex-Bucs).....LIKELIHOOD:  MEDIUM

6) Sign A Veteran Offensive Tackle

Although the Steelers now have Starks, Willie Colon, and Trai Essex under contract for 2009, the quality level at OT still needs improvement. Both Colon and Essex are essentially being paid backup money, so the team could spring for a midrange veteran free agent to compete with Colon for the starting RT position. Possibilities include Mark Tauscher (ex-Packers) and Jon Runyan (ex-Eagles). If the Steelers could sign either for $3-$4 million per year, it could upgrade the o-line and offer protection in the case of injury to Starks. Such a signing would also give the team more flexibility in the draft, as they would not need to choose an OT on the first day. But the signing of Essex probably indicates the Steelers plan to stay out of free-agent OT market.....LIKELIHOOD:  LOW

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That’s my list. Other Steelers in the last year of their contracts include Ryan Clark, Deshea Townsend, Brett Keisel, Casey Hampton, Larry Foote, Justin Hartwig, and Jeff Reed, but you guys can work on those. P.S. Thanks to Maryrose for all the cap figures.

At the end of three quarters, it looked like the Steelers game plan was working almost perfectly. To wit:

• Stop the Cardinals running game without trying (check)
  
• Use double-coverage to eliminate Fitzgerald from offense (check)
• Pressure Warner into at least one turnover (check)
• Execute long drives to reduce chances for Cardinals offense (check)
• Minimize turnovers so Cardinals must work a long field (mostly)
• Establish Steelers running game to open passing lanes (kinda sorta)
• Take advantage of Cardinals' inability to cover tight end (check)

And as a special, unplanned bonus, a 100-yard interception return from Harrison. As a result, we are ahead 20-7. With 13:34 to go, we even get the ball back at midfield after a Timmons near-block forces a crappy punt.

Then, the wheels fall off the wagon. On offense, three consecutive three-and-outs, the third one resulting in a safety. On defense, we give up an 87-yard scoring drive, a 39-yard near-scoring drive (saved by a holding penalty), and a 64-yard pass to Fitzgerald that gives the Cardinals the lead for the first time all game. Only the heroics of Ben and Santonio saved this from going down as the biggest fourth-quarter choke in Super Bowl history.

Maybe someone who knows more about football than I do can explain what happened. The best the announcers could come up with was that Arizona went to a four-WR personnel group with Arrington at RB and went no-huddle. Did this somehow catch the Steelers off-guard? It looked like the Steelers went to a dime package with Timmons at LB, which should have countered this strategy.

On offense, we continued to mix pass and run, but after moving the ball consistently earlier in the game, suddenly nothing was working. Two of the possessions were killed by sacks, and the third one by the holding penalty in the end zone. Then, on the final drive, the Steelers again cut through the defense like a knife through butter. That made it exciting, but a few first downs on any of the previous three drives would have eliminated the need for such excitement. Any ideas why our offense and defense suddenly floundered after playing so well for three quarters?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/football/nfl/01/19/mcgahee.ap/index.html?eref=si_topstories

Good news, football fans!  Willis McGahee appears to have no serious damage from the scary hit he took from Ryan Clark yesterday. Despite leaving the field on a backboard, the player was released from the hospital after staying overnight for observation.

"It is expected that Willis will have a complete recovery from the head and neck injuries he suffered last night," Ravens spokesman Kevin Byrne said.

Despite the hard feelings between the two teams and between the respective fan bases, I for one am glad to see that McGahee has no permanent damage.

Check out this link. Or, if you are too lazy to click, here is the gist of it:

Looking for a consistently reliable indicator of postseason success? How about our Defensive Hog Index. Since we introduced the indicator last year, it has correctly identified the winner in 18 of 19 playoff games – that’s a .947 batting average for those of you keeping score at home.   If all goes according to plan, the Steelers (No. 1 in the Defensive Hog Index) will beat the Eagles (No. 2 in the Defensive Hog Index) three weeks from now in Super Bowl XLIII.

CHFF's "Defensive Hog Index" combines three metrics:  opponent's yards per rush attempt, negative pass play percentage (combination of sacks and INTs), and third-down conversions. The Steelers not only led the NFL in this index, they also led in each of the three components. Although CHFF has been ragging on the Steelers for their poor offensive statistics, playoff success seems to correlate much better with these defensive statistics.

The Ravens, not surprisingly, are no slouches, ranking No. 3 in the Defensive Hog Index.

After jinxing the Steelers earlier this season by putting them on the cover before the Titans game, Sports Illustrated this week features the Chargers and Darren Sproles on the cover. This cover is only for West Coast editions (the East Coast cover features the Eagles), so maybe it is worth only half a jinx. Still, maybe Tomlin can use it for motivational material. "Bring on the Steelers" indeed!  We'll see.

via i.cdn.turner.com

Bumped. Thanks Steelin. -Blitz-

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The Steelers opponents for 2009 have been determined. The reward for facing down Murderer's Row this season is a much easier schedule next year. Rather than playing every team in the AFC South and NFC East, we face the much weaker AFC West (which failed to produce a single team with a winning record) and the mediocre NFC North. Because the Patriots did not win their division, we will not play them in 2009, instead taking on the Dolphins, who are likely to fall back to earth next year. We do have a rematch with the Titans on next year's schedule, but it is their turn to come to our house.

The toughest matchups look to be the two games against the Ravens, the aforementioned Titans at home, and the Chargers at home. On the flip side, fully half of our games are against the Browns, Bengals, Chiefs, Raiders, Packers, and the reliably lame Lions.

2009 Home Games

Ravens (11-5), Bengals (4-11-1), Browns (4-12), Chargers (8-8), Raiders (5-11), Vikings (10-6), Packers (6-10), Titans (13-3)

2009 Road Games

Ravens (11-5), Bengals (4-11-1), Browns (4-12), Broncos (8-8), Chiefs (2-14), Bears (9-7), Lions (0-16), Dolphins (11-5)

As others have pointed out, the easiest way for us to win the division is to win the Ravens game. This will give us a two-game lead plus we win the head-to-head tiebreaker. Thus, we could lose two of our other games and still win the division. In fact, unless the Ravens win all their other games (including vs. Redskins and at Cowboys), we can lose to the Patriots, Cowboys, and Titans as long as we beat the Ravens.

I've determined that even if we lose the Ravens game, however, we will still hold the tiebreaker over the Ravens (as long as we beat the Browns). Therefore, we can lose to the Ravens, lose one other game, and still win the division unless the Ravens win all their remaining games. Of course, our record has to be at least as good as the Ravens' record, but the tiebreaker advantage gives us multiple scenarios.

Here are the details: if both teams win out, except for the Ravens beating the Steelers, we win the conference record tiebreaker. If both teams lose one other game, the tiebreakers get complicated, but losing to the Patriots actually gives us a advantage over the Ravens on the "common opponents" tiebreaker. If we beat the Patriots but lose to Dallas, we win a tiebreaker on conference record. If we beat both but lose to the Titans, it would come down to "strength of victory", and our wins over San Diego and New England (in this scenario) should trump the Ravens wins over Oakland and Miami.

Bottom line: If we split our next four games and beat the Browns, the only way we don't win the division is if the Ravens go undefeated for the rest of the season, which seems unlikely given their difficult schedule.