Curious to see what insight into the first round pick has come out from the team's journalists. Maybe a good spot to put these projections in for reference.

• Dale Lolley picked Hightower in his mock on monday. Poe not on the board.
• Ed Bouchette narrowed the field to NT Dontari Poe, ILB Dont’a Hightower, G Kevin Zeitler, OT Mike Adams in a journalists Mock and picked Poe with all those guys on the board.
• Ed Bouchette participates in an ESPN mock at ~1:10 today..
• Dave Bryan of SteelersDepot picks Nick Perry
• Jim Wexell? Haven't seen a mock from him as of yet. He did tweet this:

  "Smartest, toughest, traditional Steelers-style draftables are Zeitler & L. David. 21-yr-old Poe the wild card. Adams the dark cloud." He also says he rules out Hightower and Glenn.

• Lance Zierline - mocked Hightower with Poe long gone.

Other insights?

Projected FA activity:

Re-sign Keyaron Fox as ILB depth. This gives you Foote, Timmons, Sylvester, Fox at ILB.

Re-sign Cotchery or some other Vet WR.

Sign some older vet at CB for depth. (Anthony Madison?)

Sign Owen Schmitt at FB

Wallace signs long term deal.

Needs:

NT – Need future starter, Roster spot open (Hoke). Al Woods might be part of the competition here.

DE – Backup roster spot open (Smith). Any player picked would compete with Woods, Bryant for 7th (or 8th) D-line spot.

OLB – Need a guy to compete with Carter for last backup role

ILB – Could use a rookie to replace Foote/Fox in 2013. Probably one roster spot between ILB and OLB.

S – Could use a potential starter as Clark, Polamalu are 30+. Backups are good. Not a priority and not a strong safety class.

CB – 2 Open roster spots for backups. (Gay, BMac), one projected taken by a vet FA.

WR – Open roster spot (Ward) for backup.

TE – Could potentially want a guy with Saunders suspension and to compete with Johnson.

OT – Need quality depth. Backup roster spot open (Starks). Trevis Turner in the mix.

OG – Need 1 guy to compete to start in 2012, need 1 more for depth to compete with the C.Scott et al. on the roster. (1-2 Roster spots open)

C – No needs. Preferably Legursky is gameday backup for interior line again.

FB – Open competition, picked up that guy at WVU pro day and project Schmitt signing. Maybe Clay in the mix here too.

RB – Could use another late round body to compete. Roster full of dinged up guys and Mendenhall entering contract year. Probably 4 spots with FB back in the mix.

QB – 2 backup roles to be filled, 2 young guys on the roster as long shots and camp arms, could use another late rounder to compete.

Round 1

Projected gone: Kuechly, DeCastro, top 4 OT’s ( Adams, Reiff, Martin, Kalil)

Passed over:

Poe –As a boom/bust player he’s simply not a first round Steeler.

Cordy Glenn – One of the top Guards but not substantially better than the next couple guys. Probably the first option here.

Hightower – Replacement for Farrior, is he a coverage liability? Probably second option based on comparative need.

Melvin Ingram – Tempting for use as OLB or Kirkland 2.0 but both are lower priorities. Special player without a clear-cut roster spot.

Mark Barron – Tempting but this year there are more pressing positions. In a more typical year he might be the Steeler guy – quality player for a slot that will open in a few years.

Decision point: Glenn is not so much better than guys that could be picked up a few picks later on. Let’s say Miami passes on Tannehill at #8 and thinks he’s good value at #24. They make a trade to move back into the first:

1.24 (740 pts) traded for 2.10 (480 pts) and 3.9 (230pts) and we swap our 6.24 for their 5.10 to even it out.

Picks:

2.10 Kelechi Osemele, ISU – OG/RT: Dominant talent, should compete at OG in the first year and could slide to RT in coming years or whenever Colon self destructs. (whichever comes first) Zeitler maybe an option here as well. Pick should be high enough to get one of the second (not DeCastro) tier of guards.

2.24 Alameda Ta’Amu, WAS –NT: Talented and proven at a high level. Has the low and wide physique needed. Has question marks but appropriate risk reward for second round.

3.9 Amini Silotolu, MW ST – OG: High upside prospect with mean streak.

3.24 Mitchell Schwartz, CAL – OT: Talented player with very high upside. Productive in College and looked good in senior bowl.

4.24 Tank Carder, TCU – ILB: Playmaker, good coverage skills, good instincts. He should be Special Teams beast in year 1.

5.10 Justin Bethel, Presbyterian – CB: Raw prospect with upside will have time to develop.

5.24 Greg Childs, ARK –WR: Burner who is probably discounted since coming off an injury.

7.24 Kyle Wilbur,WF – OLB: Small school player who lit up the shrine game. Will need time to transition on the practice squad.

7B Case Keenum, HOU – QB: Incredibly productive QB with game management skills and accuracy.

7C Derek Moye, PSU – WR: Moye is worth a flyer here with his height and potential upside.

7D Matt Conrath, UVA – DE: Project to add to depth at DE

If the Steelers bring in Poe, work him out, check his references etc and then draft him, in the spirit of " in the FO we trust", I'll be really excited knowing that we've got a really solid prospect at a position of need.

We know that Colbert's record in the first round has been probably the best in the league. Players he's picked have been at the very least, solid contributors. He's not shooting for the moon, but rather picking good proven players who fit our system.

Since Poe has UDFA film tape (Edit : Realistically mid round) and First round Combine stats, he's an unknown commodity. Clearly the team will ultimately know more about him than we ever will in the next three weeks. However there's a chance they'll never have the level of comfort with him needed to pull the trigger in round 1. I don't think it's a stretch to say that a boom or bust player is not on the Steelers board for round 1.

Will the full understanding that we trust the FO etc, as armchair GM's and Draftnik speculators, do you think Poe has a round 1 grade on the Steelers draft board?

Poll

Does Poe have a Rnd 1 grade on the Steelers draft board.

53%

YES

144 votes

46%

NO

124 votes

268 votes | Poll has closed

There's a pretty good series of articles called "The Big Uglies" reviewing linemen in the upcoming draft. It's produced by the director of scouting for DraftTek and is a pretty good read. He's got some experience playing in the trenches and watches a ton of film.
So far LT and RT have been covered:
http://www.drafttek.com/2012-NFL-Draft-Left-Offensive-Tackle-Review.asp

http://www.drafttek.com/2012-NFL-Draft-Right-Offensive-Tackle-Review.asp
enjoy.

We're all familliar with the mantra that "we don't rebuild, we re-load". It's a nice thought along with "the standard is the standard". I think it's a good idea to have pervasive ideas that sucking as a team is in no way shape or form acceptable.

via upload.wikimedia.org

In light of the salary cap issues, I took a little time looking at what kind of changes are necessary this spring. The team needs to shed something like $25M before march and will need to free up another $10-15M to get the roster ready for camp. The first $25M is basically cuts of guys with a single year left (so multiple years of bonus proration don't land in 2012) and restructures of contracts. The second chunk can include those but also cuts of guys with multiple years left after June 1 when the proration left will land in 2013.

via www.imfdb.org

So back to the reloading and to why I've attached photos of guys holding machine guns here. There's a lot of reloading to do. Starting in WWII when a big firefight was expected, troops taped machine gun magazines together back to back "jungle style". When the first was spent, they simply flipped the clip around and kept at it. It's done a lot in Hollywood moves. (stills from Full Metal Jacket and DieHard 2 here)

via www.imfdb.org

This year on the south side the clip is being flipped. The hot brass of Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton, Chris Hoke James Farrior, Larry Foote, Will Allen, Bryant McFadden, Chris Kemoeautu, Hines Ward, and Arnaz Battle are more than likely headed to the ground. Between this and the OC change, this is looking like the closest you'll see to a rebuilding year in Pittsburgh. We're all busy speculating on what bullets Kevin Colbert has in that second clip. Some are in house, some might be free agents and many are readying for the draft.

I thought it might be helpful to take a look at the roster with all these guys missing to inform the draft postings a little. If you think Casey Hampton will be back in 2012 coming off an ACL and with a $8M cap hit, think again...

NT (1/2) Mclendon the lone man in the middle. Ziggy may be worth a look. - high draft need.

DE (3/4) decent shape here with Al Woods and Corbin Bryant in the wings. - Late round/UDFA need.

ILB (2/5) Morty Ivy might be worth a look. Possibly take a look at Chris Carter here? Really need a thumper to complement Timmons - High draft need.

OLB (4/4) late round/UDFA practice squad type would be ok here unless they see value and want to move Carter to ILB. I think this draft looks pretty good for OLB prospects.

S (3/4) DCS probably has the inside track. Anthony Madison might be an option. Both starters are over 30 so this is an area to have young guys with upside though it's hard to argue for it in this draft.

CB (4/6) good young guys here finally. Roll the dice in the later rounds and re-sign Gay.

QB (2/3) Ben and Troy Smith holding down the fort. Byron probably to re-sign after June. 5th round or later guy to compete might not be a bad idea.

C (2/2)

OG (1/3) Foster is the only true G with any experience - most glaring need,

OT (3/4) (Gilbert, Colon, C. Scott) There are a couple other bodies on the roster who might shine in camp. Could use another young guy with LT potential. maybe 3-5th round.

TE (3/3)

WR (3/5) Hopefully the team will re-sign Cotchery or Ward and draft a mid-late round guy.

FB (0/1) !!!!!! maybe 4th-5th round

RB (5/4) more injured backs than you can shake a stick at.

ST(3/3) Swish or Warren might be replaced for cap savings. possibly with a 7th.

With those needs in mind, Here's a couple mocks that address the needs.

#1

1.24 Keleche Oselme OG - ISU

2.24 Josh Chapman NT- Bama

3.24 Audie Cole - ILB - NC State.

4.24 Don Barclay - LOT - WVU.

5.24 Case Keenum - QB - Houston

6.24 J.R. Sweezy - DE - NC State

7.24 Tashaun Gipson - CB - Wyoming

7 Comp 1 Derek Moye - WR - PSU

7 Comp 2 Emil Egwenagu - FB- UMass

#2

1.24 Donta Hightower ILB Bama

2.24 Kevin Zeitler OG Wisconsin

3.24 Nate Potter OT Boise St

4.24 Delvin Johnson NT Marshall

5.24 Cody Johnson FB Texas

6.24 Kyle Wilber DE Wake Forsest

7.24 Patrick Edwards WR Houston

7 Comp1 Gary Gray CB Notre Dame

7 Comp2 Dan Persa QB Northwestern

As you may or may not know, I'm the Steelers Analyst for the DraftTek website. It's a computer simulation of the draft. My role as analyst is to categorize needs by position and to comment on the results of the simulated drafts.

Our current simulations are just 2 rounds. I have top needs as OG, NT, and OLB.

OG is there because it's the weakest spot on the roster for starter quality. I'd love to see a big upgrade with the draft of David DeCastro out of Stanford in round 1.

NT is there because of the age of Hamp and Hoke. Hampton is on contract through 2012 and Hoke is year to year. Probably both could be signed for longer if the team wanted. However Hampton is not as consistently good as he used to be and Hoke appears to have been passed by McLendon. This would be the perfect year to pick a NT to study for a year, then replace the Snack in 2013. The computer simulator has been giving me Josh Chapman of Bama in the first round lately. Seems like a solid enough prospect in a thin field of NT in the early rounds.

OLB has been on the list from the beginning of the year when Worilds and Carter hadn't seen any playing time. Harrison was coming off the back surgery and that doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Since then Worilds has played some good games and Carter has done ok for a rook in limited time. Neither has exactly set the world on fire as a pass rusher still. I'm thinking the urgency here probably drops to second tier. A later round guy who can stick to the PS probably makes more sense since there won't likely be a roster spot here next year.

Looking at the roster for over 30 players, it seems that we might look to draft more DBs in years to come as the 3 best players in the backfield (Clark, Troy and Ike) are over 30 and one of them learned to tackle by studying Tomahawk missiles. The learning curve at Safety is a consideration so a 2 year redshirt isn't out of the question. Mark Barron, TJ McDonald, and Robert Lester are all round 1-2 possibilities.

The other standout from the over 30 list is that 2 of the 4 ILB in Foote and Farrior are on that list. Sylvester is an exciting prospect but he needs work to fight through blocks still. RIght now Bama's Hightower and ND's Te'o are slotting around where the Steelers should pick (32). Could be a good intersection of value and need.

Thoughts?

Any other pressing needs?

During the halftime of last night's game, the aged gentlemen's temperance union apparently arranged to have Bob Costas go on a rant about celebrations that are ruinous to our culture.

My wife aptly quipped that he's trying to fill Andy Rooney's void in popular culture.

Here's a link to a transcription:

http://fangsbites.com/2011/11/bob-costas-halftime-commentary-on-touchdown-celebrations/

I realize we're in a recession and all but seriously who cares if a guys rolls around on the ground in pantomime after making some catch. I think it's stupid that the NFL penalizes guys for this. I'm guessing that they twisted an arm to get this propaganda on the air.
My personal two cents is that if you're a young man lucky enough to play a game for a living and you want to write on your shirt with a sharpie or roll around on the ground -- go a frickin head and god bless you straight to heaven for enjoying yourself. Costas needs to get some perspective, this is a world with some serious problems like terrorism, hunger, stupidity, and overpopulation. Some guy rolling around on the ground pretending to be Plax is fine.

Couple thoughts from your Steeler fan here in Boston.

• Bostonians this morning seem to be much consoled to have weather to complain about.
• pats were scared of Wallace as a big play threat.  They chose to limit the big plays and that opened up the underneath.
• Love the Heath Miller show on that first drive
• My game ball to Ryan Clark - consistent hard hits make the Nickel package no pushover physically speaking.
• Ben showed really good restraint to take what they're giving him.  I was only up in arms once when he could have picked up 5 yards with the RB dump pass.
• Ben taking too many hits, particularly when running out the clock.
• Redman seemed a little off
• young money crew 2 forming on the other side of the ball?  Keenan Lewis and Cortez Allen looked pretty sharp.
• Hats off to Lebeau for the man coverage.  Perhaps taking a page out of the jets book who are built to beat the pats.  Man coverage is part of their shutdown method.  Brady knows where to look vs the zone to find the seams.  He's much worse at finding the open man - takes time.
• The hurt is on at OLB - wonder what else can be done to generate pass rush and confusion on the DL?  Maybe a hint of this with Keisel switching around to get the strip sack at the end there.  Could do some innovative things maybe with Heyward as well with Woodley out.
• D did not seem to miss Farrior
• I hope BA realizes that the empty set worked because NE has no pass rush and pretty much no playmakers on defense.  Please do not try this next week!
• I'm sick of reading the victory articles that use tom brady as a metaphor for excellence.  Just say BR was excellent instead of saying he looked like brady. 
• In celebration of the win, my 4 mo old baby slept 12 hours straight last night!

Here's where I'm at with the roster as far as position breakdowns and guys that are all locks to make the roster:
I've inserted place holders for positions that are up for grabs (OG4 means the 4th guard on the team)

QB,3,BB,Batch,Dixon
WR,5,Ward,Wallace,Brown,Sanders,Cotchery
TE,3,Miller,johnson,TE3
RB,4,Mendy,Redman,Memo,Dwyer

OL,9,Scott,Kemo,Pouncey,Legursky,Colon,Hills,Gilbert,Essex, OG4

DL,6,Smith,Snack,Keisel,Hood,Hoke,Heyward
LB,9,Harrison,Farrior,Timmons,Woodley,Sylvester,Foote,Worlids,OLB4
DB,10,Ike,BMAC,Gay,Butler,Brown,Lewis,Troy,Clark,Mundy,DB4
ST,3,Swish,Warren,P

Couple notes: 

• Either Hills or Legursky is starting guard.  Combined with Essex, I think those guys make up the starting RG and the 2 gameday active guys.
• I think Hoke is safe for the moment.  They have McClendon and Corbin Bryant looking good but no place on the roster.  Probably one of the two can make it to the PS.
• I think Will Allen's spot may be up for grabs by a CB with some position flexibility.  Probably Will Gay.
• Any chance they cut bait on the third TE and carry an extra OT?  I doubt it but an interesting thought.
• If Harrison is not looking good would they carry 10 LB and only 9 DB?  Depth at OLB is there in name only.  Need to develop a backup.  Worilds is not up to speed at last check.
• Sylvester is a lock.  He's a playmaker and if Timmons needs to move outside, we'll need the extra backup inside.

Roster Battles:

TE3: Saunders/Gilmore/McCoy

Hoping Saunders is showing enough.  Kid has the tools to be the complete package.  I think Gilmore might be the safe bet.  McCoy is another H-back sized guy -- do we need 2 of those?

OG4: Foster/Williams/C.Scott

Nobody pulling ahead of the pack.  Either Williams or C.Scott is my guess.  Heard a good amount about Williams in camp, nothing on gameday notes yet.

OLB4: Carter / Atkins

Atkins has a year of experience and is ahead on depth chart.  Carter may have a higher ceiling. 

DB4: W. Allen / C. allen / D. Warren

Last spot on DB Roster.  C. Allen has the highest top-side.  Warren might be the best to contribute this year but might make it to the PS.

P; Kapinos / Sepulveda

Reliability or Performance?  Toyota or Ferrari?  Might go with Kapinos here.

 

Trade Bait:

We'll have to cut some guys who will be on 53 man rosters somewhere this year.  maybe we can trade these to improve draft stock or get a better OG4 or TE3 guy for our roster.

 

DE:  Corbin Bryant - Rookie out of Northwestern.  Might make it to the PS.

DT:  Steve McLendon – looking good in preseason.  Not sure on Ps eligibility.

LB: Morty Ivy:  looking great this year but the LB corps is packed.

P:  Sepulveda or Kapinos

 

 

Seems a little light on postings here so I figured I'd throw some thoughts together.

• Very nice to see the Steelers work on the short passing game and involving the backs in the short passing game.   IMO the lack of this aspect of the game has hurt us against good blitzing teams.
• Lots of talk about Donovan Warren.  He's seen a lot of game time and has given up the underneath throws and has seemed to be a sure tackler.  I've also seen him pursuing the ball well in run support.  I think it's kind of hard to judge DB performance from the couch since you don't know what's asked of them.  He's basically performing the same as Willy Gay but he gets  credit and Gay is the goat.  Similarly vs the skins Mundy is making a lot of tackes which leads some to say he's doing a good job but others think he should be making plays on the ball rather than containing the YAC.
• Looking forward to seeing the ATL game.  Would be nice to see Anthony Gray have some time against a team that actually intends to run between the tackles.  The Eagles haven't done that since before Duce was a sweatpants model.  Probably too much to ask to see him vs Michae Turner but that would be a great test.
• Seems like we have an embarassment of riches at LB and DL.  In my estimation only two or three of these guys will land on the 53:  LB: Baraka Atkin, Maro Harvey, Morty Ivy, Chris Carter, DL: Steve McLendon, Corbin Bryant, Anthony Gray, Chris Hoke.  All are worthy.
• In sharp contrast, I have a hard time picking out more than 8 OL worth keeping.  The rookies Williams and Gilbert sound like keepers but not ready to start.  Hills to RG is weird but if it works, let's do it.
• I'm guessing some phones of Starks and Flo's agents were lighting up pretty good after 2 LT went down vs Philly.  IMO we could use one of those guys to compete at LT with J. Scott.  Loser is gameday swing tackle. Legursky backs up the interior.  Gilbert and Williams are inactive.  The rest move to the PS or their lifes' work.
• How hard is it to not have a guy injure his frikkin hamstring in camp??  They need a coaching assistant just to coach the hamstring from the looks of it.  It's ridiculous and it happens every year.
• Second TE roster spot is a huge opportunity and is wide open.  Gilmore seems like the safe choice.  I'd like Saunders to make the team cause he seems to have a huge upside.  I've only noticed him being overthown so far.  I hope to see him with the ball in his hands next game.  Miguel Chavis and Vaughn Charleton are the other competition. I've heard a lot about McCoy but haven't noticed him from the couch.  He's only 6'2 so he's in competiion with David Johnson and not in play for the 2nd TE job.
• You need to have a Penn Stater on the roster to make the SB as we all know.  Right now it's Gilmore at TE or Kapinos at P.
• Will Allen's spot may be up for grabs.  He kind of bounced off of a tackle vs. Philly.  With less kick returns, a better gamer might take his spot.  Maybe W. Gay or one of the other corners can learn safety also.  Could make same point on A. Battle but there aren't a lot of receivers in the wings worth keeping.  At DB there's a ton of youth to be developed. If we can roll with 3 safeties it opens up room elsewhere.  We've done it before.
• Dixon looked good against Philly.  Against Wash he didn't have any time to do anything other than run for his life.  Probably a good idea to trade him now while we still have his rights since I don't see him re-signing for clipboard duty.
• Why not make some other position player be the 3rd QB?  Guy could be insurance at 2 positions.  Maybe ARE or Battle (QB @ ND) would be a nice fit?
  
  
  
  

I saw on the PG today that the team is poking around FA now before looking at extending Troy and Timmons.  Curious to see what values there may be out there.  I'd love to hear some opinions.

 

Here's my rundown of position and where a FA might fit in:

 

QB: No chance

FB: Not gonna happen, decent talent available though.

RB: With Memo back, it hardly seems likely. 

C: No chance

OG:  Good chance here IMO.  There are a lot of young guys in the mix here.  We could pickup a vet here to step in at RG or possibly to upgrade Kemo.  Leonard Davis is out there.  Not familliar with much of the rest.

OT:  WIth the cut of Starks, there's a window to get a stop gap left tackle.  Numerous guys with starting experience are still out there on the market.    Damien Woody, Chester Pitts, Jared Gaither all still out there according to ESPN.

TE: Bruce probably has a list of 10 more he'd like to add to the roster.  Seems like some quality guys are in house already to vie for the #2 spot.

WR: Could sign another veteran insurance policy ala ARE.  Steve Smith of the Giants would be one of the better starter contenders.

CB:  We have a good number of young bodies trying to fill the backup spots.  If we don't have a backup that the team is comfortable with, a vet might be brought in.  Team typically caries 4 experienced corners - not sure if Keenan Lewis qualifies for that role yet.

S: Probably unlikely since starters are set and the backups are reasonably good.

OLB:  Probably no room on the roster unless they try to sneak Carter onto the PS or try him at ILB.

ILB: no need.  Harvey is probably the guy just outside the bubble here. 

DT: no need barring injury.  Some old guys in Jamal Williams and Pat Williams are out there.

DE: No room on the roster.  Considering Ziggy is gameday ready, and Hoke can play here, no need also.

Really slow news-wise.

Just curious what the thoughts are out there on what kind of contract Ike will get assuming he stays in Pittsburgh.

 

Some frames of reference:

 

2011 franchise tag $14m

2010 franchise tag $9.6m

Asomugha contract (2009) 3 years $25m guaranteed, avg $15m/year

Asante Samuel (2008) 6 years $23m guar. avg $9.5m/year

Revis (2010) 4 years $21m guar avg $11.5m/year

Ike Taylor (2006) 5 years $6.4 bonus, avg $4.5/year

My guess is that he gets a 4 year contract with some back end loading similar to what Farrior signed that would give him a pretty high average take per year but might make him a cap casualty as he slows down.

 

My guess is 4 years, $8m bonus avg of $6.5m/year with last years much higher base.

Poll

Assuming he signs with the Steelers what is the average per year on his contract in $millions?

19%

>8

22 votes

45%

7-8

51 votes

19%

6-7

22 votes

9%

5-6

10 votes

3%

4-5

4 votes

1%

<4

2 votes

111 votes | Poll has closed

So since the lockout is on at the moment, the team's front office cannot officially contact players of any type including unsigned rookies.  It doesn't mean the fan cannot contact players and in theory try to bias them towards your team.

To that end I was poking around the twitter account of Ian Williams (IWilliams95)  hoping to see something like he loves pirogies or he's looking for a really livable city or he likes to see a lot of different types of bridges on a day to day basis.  No such luck, I did find out that he's friends with our second rounder Marcus Gilbert (MGilbert67) and knows at least Mike Pouncey.  At one point he mentions his agent is Drew Rosenhouse also.

Does anyone think the fan could be influential in the choices these UDFA make?  I'd like to at least tell him that our Nose Tackles are 33 and 35 years old.  Thoughts?

I took a look at the list of visiting players (at the end of the post) and took a look at what kind of mock I could make out of the list.  Some pretty decent options IMO.  Note that this list doesn't include the local guys who visit for free.

Of the 25 visits on the list to date:

CB: 6

NT: 5

WR: 5

OL: 4

RB: 2

DE: 1

LB: 1

   5 NT Prospects is a lot but 3 of the guys are late rounders - kind of in line with my thoughts that they'll go prospecting for a late round gem since Hampton is signed for 2 more years.  Kind of interesting that they've seen so many WR (although all mid to late rounders) and only 1 LB so far.  Also only 1 DE prospect brought in (Cam Jordan) and he's a long shot to even be available to the Steelers.  (Note that free visiting Pitt guys Romeus and Sheard are legit candidates for DE and OLB respectively though)

Option 1 

 

1. Cam Jordan DE
2. Curtis Brown CB
3. James Carpenter OT/OG
4. Julius Thomas TE
5. Mario Harvey LB
6. Anthony Gray NT
7. Dwight Daisher WR

Option 2 - 

1. Phil Taylor NT
2. Rodney Hudson OG
3. Johnny Patrick CB
4. Jarriel King OT
5. Taiwan Jones RB
6. Cortez Allen CB
7. Tyler Beiler WR

Option 3

1. Ras-I CB
2. Marcus Gilbert OT/OG
3. Kendrick Ellis NT
4. Austin Pettis WR
5. Da'Rel Scott RB
6. Cortez Allen CB
7. Tyler Beiler WR

The list with guess on round

 

Baylor defensive tackle Phil Taylor, NT, round 1

California defensive end Cameron Jordan, DE, round 1

Virginia cornerback Ras-I Dowling, CB, round 1

Florida offensive tackle Marcus Gilbert, OT OG, round 2

Florida State center/guard Rodney Hudson, OG, round 2

Texas cornerback Curtis Brown, CB, round 2

Abilene Christian wide receiver Edmund Gates, WR, round 3

Alabama tackle/guard James Carpenter, OT OG, round 3

Hampton defensive tackle Kendrick Ellis, NT, round 3

Louisville cornerback Johnny Patrick, CB, round 3

Boise State wide receiver Austin Pettis, WR, round 4

Portland State tight end Julius Thomas, TE, round 4

South Carolina offensive tackle Jarriel King, OT OG, round 4

Tennessee-Chattanooga cornerback Buster Skrine, CB, round 4

Utah State cornerback Curtis Marsh, CB, round 4

Eastern Washington running back Taiwan Jones, RB, round 5

Marshall linebacker Mario Harvey, LB, round 5

Maryland running back Da’Rel Scott, RB, round 5

Tennessee wide receiver Denarius Moore, WR, round 5

Alabama A&M defensive tackle Frank Kearse, NT, round 6

Auburn defensive tackle Zach Clayton, NT, round 6

Citadel cornerback Cortez Allen, CB, round 6

Southern Miss defensive tackle Anthony Gray, NT, round 6

Bridgewarter wide receiver Tyler Beiler, WR, round 7

Middle Tennessee quarterback/receiver Dwight Daisher, WR, round 8  

Poll

Which option is best?

10%

1

9 votes

9%

2

8 votes

80%

3

71 votes

88 votes | Poll has closed

all,

 

Thought I'd throw a couple links up to some in depth analysis of the O-Line prospects in this years draft class.

This is compiled yearly by DraftTek's director of scouting who goes by the moniker "LongBall" .  He's got playing and scouting experience as a lineman.  I find his reviews are a good source of original analysis.  Enjoy:

Left Tackle

Interior Line.

Right Tackle

In interest of full disclosure, I'm the Steelers team analyst for the site

I believe I've heard that there can be no team to team player trades with the current status of the labor agreement.  Just thinking that this would cut down a good bit of the wheeling and dealing that happens on draft day with the trades.  Would be a serious shame if this is the case.  

 

Anyone know if trades involving players can be made on draft day as it stands now?

 

Some of the scenarios I'm seeing might make it tempting to trade down a couple spots into the top of the second round and pick at good value there.  Maybe bundle 1,4 for another teams 2,3.  Could end up with somthing like 2.5, 3.5 for 1.31, 4.31  perhaps?  I'm thinking that some of these teams that need a QB but don't pull the trigger in the first due to poor value might not mind jumping back up into the bottom of the first to get the pick of those second round guys.  QB is a need of probably 5 of the first 8 teams.

Assumptions:

Willie Colon leaves via FA

Ike Taylor either leaves and is replaced by a FA or is retained

Woodley signs a long contract

Starks recovers fine

Assuming CB available in Rnd 1 are too much of a reach (Peterson, Akamura, Harris gone).

1. Gabe Carimi -- OT --   Carimi should be able to step into RT by the end of the season and could end up at the left side in a couple years. 

2. Ras-I Dowling - CB -- Badly needed playmaker in the secondary.  Easily a first round pick w.o injury issues.  Colbert has a record of picking dinged up players at a discount.  (Heath Miller, Tony Hills,...)

3. Orlando Franklin -- OG - Steelers look to convert Franklin to Guard although he could potentially end up almost anywhere on the line in future years.  Has the height and reach to be a tackle in future years.  Best chance at starting is to beat Foster for RG job. 

4.Korey Lindsey - CB - Southern Illinois - Great measurables in size, speed and great production on FCS level.  Willing tackler in Steeler mold.

5. Ian Williams -- NT -- Notre Dame -- Good prospect with some time to develop.

6. Andre Smith TE  - VT -- 6-7 270lb blocking TE

7.  Cheta Ozougwu - OLB -- Rice -- Good athlete who can play ST and develop at the end of the LB depth chart.

I did a little digging today to see what kind of prospects might be out there for a #2 tight end to replace Spaeth.  Although his blocking was better this year than in the past, he's maybe made it to an average blocker in his time with the team.  The #2 tight end should have decent height and heft to block on the line.  I'm looking for a player in the mold of Tuman or Breuner.  Improving the play of the blocking TE will help in the run game and in pass protection as well.  Breuner, incidentally is apparently a part time scout for the Steelers these days.  There are a couple of "complete package" early round guys in Rudolph and Stocker.  I'm passing them over here as clearly we have more pressing needs in the first two days of the draft.

 

My recommendations:

1. Charlie Gantt Michigan St.  6-4 252lb In addition to excellent blocking skills has good hands.  Showed strength with 27 reps benching at the combine.  Approx 6th round prospect.
2. Andre Smith Virginia Tech   6-5 270lb post on him  Devastating blocker and a play maker on offense reportedly performed well in Texas v. Nation game.  Probably the most complete TE on my list.  Snubbed by lack of combine invite.   5th - 6th round prospect.
3. Lee Smith Marshall 6-5 266lb Dominant blocker who also caught 38 balls last year.  Agressive with a mean streak.  Fairly smart,posting 3.21 GPA in double major. 25 reps on the bench at the combine. Might be considered as an OL prospect if he bulks up a bit.  Kicked off of Tennesee Roster for DUI.  A bit older (23) with wife and 2 kids.   6th - 7th round prospect
4. Richard Gordon Miami (FL) 6-4 265lb Blocking TE in college with some polish as a blocker.  Limited use as a receiver.  Some experience as a KR.  6th rounder.

Honorable Mentions:

• Konrad Reuland Stanford 6-6, 267lb - I can't find much on this guy but he certainly has the size.  former 5 star recruit who transfered from Notre Dame.  Honorable mention Pac-10.  Pro-Day coming up 3/17.  Expected to go undrafted.
• Julius Thomas Portland St. 6-5 254lb - Former Basketball player.  A bit of a project as he needs some strengthening and blocking technique work. (16 reps at the bench).  Has some significant offensive potential with more speed and athletecism 4.68 40 time, good numbers on cone drill.  Probably drafted in 3rd or 4th round which is poor value for the Steelers.
• Lance Kendricks Wisconsin 6-3 243 lb Well rounded  TE.  Only average Blocker.  Above average as a receiver.  Size is more well suited to H-back.  Probably drafted in the 3rd for his offensive skills.
• Zach Pinalto North Carolina 6-3 256lb Hardworking, tenacious player.  Needs to work on inline blocking.  Significant injury history.  Height and arm length (33") smaller than ideal. Good cone drill time.  6th-7th rounder
• Kyle Adams Purdue 6-5 250lb More of an offensive weapon than a blocker.  Team captain with good hands.  Has good length but needs to bulk up.  Only 32.5" arms but 10.75" hands from combine.  Closest to shortest arms but biggest hands!. 7th rounder
• Weslye Saunders South Carolina 6-5 273lb Has elite  physical tools to block and catch.  Disciplined for missing meetings then kicked off team.  Seems like a born Bengal.  Was thought of as a 3rd rounder at one point

To be Avoided, players with good size but poor blocking skills:

• Rob Hoosler FLA Atlantic 6-5 248 Good offensive weapon.  Good size, speed and hands.  Lacks blocking strength to block effectively.  A project at best as a blocker. 4th round prospect.
• Schuyler Oordt N. Iowa 6-6  261 Fast player with good size.  Interesting offensive weapon but needs work as a blocker.  WIth his lanky frame could be the second coming of Spaeth.  Expected 6th-7th round.  I hope he ends up being good so fans somewhere can yell OOOOORDT! on Sundays.
• Jordan Cameron USC 6-5  254 Former Basketball player.  At or near the top marks in 40 time, Vert jump, Cone drill.  Needs a lot of work at blocking.  4th - 5th rounder

 

Lately I've been feeling a ton of gratitude towards Ben for just epically gutsy performances.  He's been grinding out these games in the face of injuries and a double standard from the officials.

Poll

Which endorsement should Ben pursue?

5%

Ambulance Chasing Attorneys (Edgar Snyder etc)

4 votes

13%

Hot tub Companies

10 votes

52%

Pain Killers (Aleve etc)

39 votes

12%

Postal Service (Neither blind officials, nor broken nose....)

9 votes

17%

Flexall 454 etc.

13 votes

75 votes | Poll has closed

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Some things that would go a long way towards making this team a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

1. Aaron Smith is out and Keisel is banged up.  The healthy  D-line and OLB need to get on the same page a little better to get more pressure on the passer.  This is not just in reaction to the last game.  Last year the OLB were living in the backfield,  this year they're struggling to get consistent  pressure although the total number of sacks is fairly high.
2. Learn how to run left in addition to right.  ( a lot to ask I know).  Sometimes you can just run right and  impose your will and the other team isn't good enough or smart enough to stop it.  You need a backup plan if that doesn't work.  The Ravens and Pats both put another NT versus our right side and it's been pretty effective.  Pretty much the only running to the left are the FB dives off of the pony set.
3. Learn how to play pass defense without giving WR an 8 yard cushion.  Again, not saying you need to play this way all the time.  A lot of offenses are not good enough to dink and dunk down the field as evidenced by the Steelers formidable scoring defensive stats.  To be a legitimate contender we need to play man more against the best QBs.  When the team has gone to man in the 4th quarter of losing efforts against NO and NE it's been pretty effective.   Man coverage also allows our safeties to freelance a little more.  Polamalu and Clark haven't impacted a game lately because they're playing deep safety over top of corners that themselves are basically playing as an over the top safety.
4. Play calling and execution versus the blitz.  Expect to see a lot more blitzing this year.  Hot read receivers are not on the same page with Ben.  I saw the team actually execute a slant pass in the 4th quarter.  Not sure if Arians picked that idea up via Twitter feed or what but it worked.  Learn to execute short routes to take the edge off pass rushers.
5. Roll out Ben.  He's effective on the move and it also takes something off the pass rush.
6. Learn how to take a defense that is lights out verus the run and weak versus the pass and make it, on occasion, more balanced at the expense of run liability.  I think in practice this might mean taking another big man out for a safety or small backer to play the under pass routes.  Harrison and Woodley do an admirable job but there is room for improvement.  Even when we take a lineman out we still basically have 4 big guys stacking the line versus the pass.
7. Jeff Reed may not be drinking enough.  He just doesn't seem right.  
8. Stop using Spaeth as a blocker.  He actually caught 3 balls in the Cin, NO games.  He's a big target with good hands and he can't block.  Either throw him the ball or put another OT in there.
9. Minor point here...  Mendenhall is maybe the most consistent player on offense besides Ward but he needs to stop turning around when he's obviously going to get hit.  I realize that he does this because that's the last time he can turn a spin move on that given play (so what the heck right?).  In practice he turns around the backs into the tackler.  If he keeps his head facing forward he can have a more glancing blow perhaps and also he can drive his legs, getting some additional yards and punish the tackler somewhat, maybe you even break the tackle...  When you turn around at the tackle, you've basically thrown in the towel on the play.
10. Consider making ARE inactive for a couple games to get Antonio Brown some experience.  ARE has the lowest receptions / targets ratio on the team and he's not a long term solution or a dynamic play maker.

So Starks is on IR for the year and the team added Chris Scott from the PuP to the 53 man roster.

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Just a quick look at Redman's impact on the game vs the Browns.  He had a very nice game, accounting for 4 of 8 rushing first downs.  Some good production from the Pony backfield.  He's continuing to look strong and produce.

Down-to go           Gains

3-1                             4

3-1                             1

2-3                             6

1-10                          13

2-10                           3

2-7                             4

 

In contrast to his Redmanly performance, some aging vets didn't have much of an impact.  Randle El caught one pass and his steady hands nearly muffed a punt.  Mewelde Moore ran once for one yard and had no receptions. 

Keisel suffered some kind of hamstring injury early in the game.  He seems like he's going to be fine according to the PG.  f he were going to miss significant time, who would be the low man on the totem pole to get bumped?

• Could just leave roster as-is and use less D-Linemen as backups?
• Could cut Batch/Leftwich and go with 2 QB?
• Could cut ARE or Moore?

Just a quick look at the gains from all RB in the last 2 games.

Before I start I just want to point out that obviously all three backs are playing with and against different levels of personnel, in different phases of the games.  

From the Denver game Dwyer was looking good on the box score but he really didn't have a lot of positive plays.  The box score usually shows an average yards per carry.  It's a decent stat if the back has consistent production but it makes boom and bust players look better than they actually are.  For those that speak Stats:  Average is the best way to asses typical production from a data set with a normal distribution.  For the non normal, you are better off looking at median or % achieving success by some standard.

"Splash Plays" as Tomlin calls them are great and can change a game.  In many cases however you need the run game to eat some clock, take some yards on first down or simply move the sticks on a 3rd down.  Steeler Football if you will. 

I took a look at some better stats to get an idea of how well suited Mendenhall, Moore, Redman, and Dwyer are to this role.

I took all running plays into account per NFL.com play by play stats including some that were overturned by penalty.  I calculated Average YPC, Median YPC, % of plays with yardage less than 0, % of plays with yardage from 0 to 2, and % of plays with yardage of 3 or more.  (Median is the number with equal # of data points on either side of it)

The stats back up Dwyer's boom or bust nature in that he had a good play (3+ yards)  less than half of the time. The other backs show fairly similar numbers for these two games anyway.  Redman Mendenhall and Moore all got 3+ yards at least 70% of the time.  Redman's stout running is reflected in his pack-leading median yards per carry of 5.0.

 

Mendenhall (10runs)  

Avg YPC:5

Median YPC: 4.5

<0 %: 10%

0-2 %: 10%

3+ %: 80%

M. Moore (13 Runs)

Avg YPC:4.9

Median YPC: 4.0

<0 %: 8%

0-2 %: 8%

3+ %: 85%

Redman (7 runs)

Avg YPC:6.6

Median YPC: 5.0 

<0 %: 0%

0-2 %: 29%

3+ %: 71%

Dwyer (33 runs)

Avg YPC:5.6

Median YPC:2.0 

<0 %: 21%

0-2 %: 36%

3+ %: 42%