The draft is a funny thing. While it is critically important for the long term health of a team, and it's pretty easy to evaluate after 3 years or so, it does seem pretty hard to get a consensus on how good a team is at it. History tends to get revised based on someone's point of view. Remember how we traded sooooo much to get Ryan Mathews? (Really we gave up the #28 and #60 pick plus Charlie Whitehurst and Tim Dobbins and some lower round swaps for the #12 pick, not too bad). Remember what an absolute pile of crap the 2008 draft was? (actually we did manage to get two very good starters out of that draft, but otherwise it did stink). While both sides of those type of arguments have merit, the best way to evaluate a team's drafting is by looking at the whole landscape over the course of the years.

For better or worse, we have been a team that builds through the draft, so we need to be good at it. Too many mistakes and you become the Bills. A lot of reactionary fans tend to either blindly claim that A.J. Smith is either the biggest genius or the biggest idiot they have ever seen assemble an NFL football team. The only way to really be objective about this is to take a look at past drafts. A.J. admitted back in the 2009 off-season that he had to do better, so let's take a look back as see if his drafts have gotten better.

Keep in mind that you typically need three years to evaluate a draft. A.J. is on record saying he won't judge a draft pick as being a success or failure until they get to the point of needing their second contract, which is after 3 or 4 years in the league. Usually by the third year, a player can be accurately evaluated as to their NFL potential. For some players it comes earlier, but typically we need to give a player three years. I've looked at every player we've drafted since 2001, plus any draft slots we traded away and what we got for them. I've also included Undrafted Free Agents (UDFA) who we picked up after the draft and made an impact.

We're going to try and look at this as objectively as possible. We are going to track how many years each player spent with the team, how much they contributed in terms of starting and pro-bowls (made the pro-bowl or actually played). And lastly we are going to look at if they got a second contract, which is A.J. saying they were a good draft pick. With the craziness of the CBA over the last two years, I engaged in some subjectivity with some of the weird unrestricted free agent rules over the last two off-seasons. I sometimes count an RFA tender as a second contract if they would have been unrestricted under the normal CBA (they are marked with an *). Tendering an RFA who would have been an RFA anyways will not count as a second contract. A Franchise tag counts as a second contract.

So, let's get to it!

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As this herky-jerky off-season drunkenly stumbles along, we are left with one beacon of stability: The NFL Draft. For all we know, there may not be football for a long time. The owners hate the players and the players hate the owners. They are suing each other and trading barbs in the press. Our familiar rhythm of free agency, draft, mini-camps and OTAs has been reduced to one thing: The NFL Draft. The Chargers are one of the teams in The League that relies heavily on the draft for their players. Luckily for me, this fits my philosophical bent of how an NFL team should be built. Deep down in our hearts, I think we would all rather be on the side of the team that is built through the draft for the long haul rather than the free agent frenzy the seems to doom the likes of the Redskins every year. If you've been a Charger fan for long enough, you remember David Boston and Marcellus Wiley and how they failed to deliver on their promise. If you're like me you would rather live in a world where there is no way we will get a Julius Peppers than one where we risk reliving that dark history.

That being said, if we are a team that builds through the draft, we need to be good at it. Too many mistakes and you become the Bills. A lot of reactionary fans tend to either blindly claim that A.J. Smith is either the biggest genius or the biggest idiot they have ever seen assemble an NFL football team. The only way to really be objective about this is to take a look at past drafts. A.J. admitted as recently as the 2009 off-season that he had to do better, so let's take a look back as see how he has done.

Keep in mind that you typically need three years to evaluate a draft. A.J. is on record saying he won't judge a draft pick as being a success or failure until they get to the point of needing their second contract, which is after 3 or 4 years in the league. Usually by the third year, a player can be accurately evaluated as to their NFL potential. For some players it comes earlier, but typically we need to give a player three years. I've looked at every player we've drafted since 2001, plus any draft slots we traded away and what we got for them. I've also included Undrafted Free Agents (UDFA) who we picked up after the draft and made an impact.

We're going to try and look at this as objectively as possible. We are going to track how many years each player spent with the team, how much they contributed in terms of starting and pro-bowls. And lastly we are going to look at if they got a second contract, which essentially is A.J. saying they were a good draft pick. With the craziness of the CBA over the last two years, we are going to count any RFA who would not have been an RFA under the normal CBA who was then tendered as having received a second contract (they are marked with an *). Tendering an RFA who would have been an RFA anyways will not count as a second contract.

So, let's get to it!

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So, the football season is officially over.  Now is the time when the thoughts of every red-blooded football fan turn to the upcoming draft.  Sure, we'll have free agency before then, but every quality team in the NFL gets the majority of its players, the backbone of its team, through the draft.  A lot of the reactionary fans tend to either blindly claim that A.J. Smith is either the biggest genius or the biggest idiot they have ever seen assemble an NFL football team.  The only way to really be objective about this is to take a look at past drafts.  AJ admitted last year at this time that he had to do better, so let's take a look back as see how he has done.

Keep in mind that you typically need three years to evaluate a draft.  By the third year, a player can be accurately evaluated as to their NFL potential.  For some players it comes earlier, but typically we need to give a player three years.  I've looked at every player we've drafted since 2001, plus any draft slots we traded away and what we got for them.  I've also included Undrafted Free Agents (UDFA) who we picked up after the draft and made an impact (either here or elsewhere in the league).

Each player is objectively measured on a scale from "made team" to MVP.  A full time starter is any player who earned a starting spot and held on to it.  Guys who started a long time yet were just injury replacements will not be categorized as full time starters (like Mooch this year), but guys who knocked someone out of their starting position and held onto it will be categorized as full time starters (like Ellison this year).  Anyone who was either selected to the pro bowl or made it there as an injury replacement gets marked as a pro bowler (If David Garrard continues to go to the pro bowl I will need to rethink this).  A player name formatted with strike-through is no longer on the team.

So, let's get to it!

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With all the hubub about the Chargers under-performing, and how poorly Norv Turner is coaching, I thought it would be interesting to see how Norv's record thus far in his career matches up against some of his contemporaries.  I've put together each of the coach's records as a head coach and kept a running tally of the cumulative win percentage in the regular season and post season.

I've put Norv up against the four of the SB winning coaches who are currently not coaching and will be looking for work soon (I don't think Dungy will be).  I've thrown in Jeff Fisher and Bill Belichek just for some additional perspective.

I'm not entirely sure what I was expecting when I was putting together these numbers.  I had a vague belief in my mind that Norv's early career failures might match up with other top coach's slow starts and that perhaps history would show us we should just be patient.  So, let's take a look.

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Victor Conte was on XTRA 1360 with Josh Rosenberg and Mark Ziegler (SDUT) a few weeks back.  I had it on my iPod but hadn't gotten around to listening to it.  Being sick of listening to people talk about the Chargers, I thought it might make an interesting listen.  If you don't know, Victor Conte was the CEO of BALCO and was responsible for supplying world class level athletes such as Barry Bonds, Marion Jones, Jason Giambi, and Bill Romanowski with Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs).  BALCO was busted by the feds a few years back and the grand jury testimonies and other fall out from that investigation has led to a lot of the current fervor about PEDs, especially in baseball.

I don't know what you think about Conte, I personally figured him to be a a bit of a money hungry mad scientist who was willing to sacrifice the purity of sport for a few bucks and some glory.  The interview with the XTRA guys shed a bit of a different light on him.  The interview itself is about 20 minutes long, and I've summarized it below.

Josh and Mark interview Victor Conte on XTRA 1360 (mp3)

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I saw a fanpost by jman on the what the AFC West looks like at the quarter pole.  Since we are 4 games into the season, it is probably a good time to look at how things are stacking up.  jman's analysis was his view of how each team is doing.  I thought I would take it from a different angle and get some more "objective" views on how things are going.  Once we go through that, I'll give you some thoughts on how things might shake out.

All right, so first, let's explain quickly some of the numbers, specifically the DVOA numbers.  You can click on the headings to see the complete rankings and get details on exactly how they are generated.  In summary, the DVOA stands for Defense Adjusted Value Over Average.  That is, how much better is this team than the average NFL team if we adjust for who they are playing.  Theoretically, this should normalize for an offense that gets to play a really bad defense vs. an offense that plays a really good defense.  Now, there is some controversy on how accurately the DVOA numbers represent reality, but they are as good as anything else out there.  In addition, since the season is still fairly young, they don't really have the sample size they need to generate really accurate numbers.

After the last game against Pittsburg, none of us are surprised that our defense should rank #30 out of 32 teams.  Sounds about right.  I think what is a little surprising is that our offense is ranked middle of the pack.  We are #9 in points scored, but #15 overall.  A good part of this has to do with how the offense is really good in spurts, but then stinks it up.  Or more accurate, how our offense sucks the first half, is mediocre the third quarter and then becomes the '94 49ers in the 4th quarter.

Everyone has probably noticed this, but how about the Denver defense?  26 points given up over 4 games?  6.5 points per game average?  Now, they have played some bad teams, but they also have played the Cowboys with a decent offense, and the surprisingly good Bengals.  This area that was a major weakness and a big reason behind the Bronco collapse last year is surprising good, and may even be a strength of this team.  We will get an up close view of this in a few weeks and will be able to tell for ourselves if they are as good as they seem to be at this time.

One of my good friends is a Raider fan and we used to go pretty crazy during Raider week.  He is a snapshot of the Raider team.  The loss to the Bucs in the SB earlier this decade ripped his heart out and he has been in descent ever since.  He barely even wants to talk about his team any more.  Looking at them, I think that if they had a decent QB, they could be competitive.  JaMarcus Russell has a completion percentage of under 40%.  That is ridiculous.  They have a good crew of RBs and a good enough OL, there is no reason why their offense should be ranked #32.  It''s too bad.  Keep this between us, but I secretly wish the Raiders were good and Raider week meant something again.

The Chiefs are still a conundrum to me.  They definitely were not as bad as their record was last year.  They definitely aren't as bad as their record is this year.  But at some point you have to say, as AJ likes to say, "You are what your record says your are."  I'm still worried about this team and I feel they could beat just about any team on any given Sunday.  They have the offensive weapons.  They have some holes on the OL, and their defense is a little weak, but they have just been completely run over so far this year.  Is Haley in over his head? Perhaps.  Did Belichek not let Pioli take the magic beans with him when he left NE?  Probably.  The jury is still out, they may still be in recovery mode from ditching their offensive coordinator right after the last preseason game.  Offensively they have some weapons and should be serviceable.  Defensively, they have a lot of young talent.  Like I said, this is a scary team in that they might only win 4 or 5 games, but those 4 or 5 wins might be against playoff teams.

I'm sure we all know that the Charger's 50th anniversary team is up for a vote right now.  You can go to the Charger's web site and look through the list and vote here.

There are a lot of guys on that list who you haven't heard of and maybe a lot of your votes tended to favor some of the more recent guys.  I thought I would take a second to promote one of my favorite Chargers and a guy who is up for the 50th anniversary team as an offensive guard.  Ed White played in the Air Coryell days.  He was in the NFL from 1969 to 1985, playing the final 8 of those years with the Chargers.  When he retired, he had played in more games than any other offensive lineman (241). That is a lot of time to play in the NFL.

Ed was an all-american defensive lineman at Cal before being drafted by the Vikings and converted to offensive guard.  He was a starter by his second year in the league and made the pro-bowl 4 times over his 17 year career.  He also played in 4 super bowls with that Vikings team. He came to the Chargers in 1978 and his arrival coincided with the accendancy of the Chargers in the Don Coryell/Dan Fouts era.  Ed is one of the one or two guys from those teams who guys in the know wonder why he isn't in the hall of fame. 

No less authority than Dan Fouts says Ed should be in the Hall.  "No question about it," Fouts said. "When he retired, nobody had played in more games as an offensive lineman than Ed White. They don’t have any statistics for offensive linemen other than Pro Bowls and Super Bowls, and those are things Ed has done. He was one of the most feared offensive linemen in the game. You talk to guys like Howie Long and Matt Millen who had to go against Big Ed. They hated it."

Dennis McNight, former Charger lineman and owner of a fine car wash down the street from me had this to say about Ed:  "Big Ed was probably the best all-around offensive lineman in the league in terms of run blocking and pass blocking"

After his playing career was over he coached at a variety of different levels.  He spent some time coaching the Chargers and the Rams.  He was the line coach at SDSU when Kyle Turley came through.  Ed was instrumental in converting Kyle from a defensive lineman into one of the best offensive lineman around.  To this day Turley will claim Ed is the best coach he has ever had. 

So why do I care about a guard who played a quarter century ago?  Well, I grew up where he lived when he played for the Chargers.  I played high school football with his sons.  He was my defensive coordinator (he never really got over being converted from defense to offense).  He is one of the biggest contributors to my love of football.  I remember my dad talking to him the week after the famous ice bowl.  It was two or three days later and Big Ed was saying that he still couldn't totally feel his fingers.  And this was from a guy who spent the first half of his career playing in Minnesota, pre-dome.

So, go check out the 50th anniversary voting here, learn a little Charger History, and cast a vote for my man Big Ed.

 All right, so on Monday I was a big proponent of panicking.  I have had a few days to cool off and I thought I should take a look at this a little more methodically.  After all, if we're going to start panicking, at least we should have a reasonable justification for it. 

We began the season with high hopes, but we did have some areas of concern after the off season and through the preseason.  I figured I'd start by looking at each one of those areas of concern after two real games against a decent opponent and a very good opponent.

Area of Concern #1 - The right side of the Offensive Line

Jeromey Clary had received his fair share of lumps, and the unknown of the RG position was a little concerning.  We all agreed that losing Mike Goff was going to help a bit, but were we not sure how much.  Was Kynan Forney an upgrade?  Could the rookie Louis Vasquez learn the ropes in time to contribute?  How much of Clary's problems last year were due to Goff's inadequacies and how much were due to his own abilities and ceiling? 

Turns out Vasquez did come along quick enough to earn the starting job in week 1.  Vasquez's ability, Forney's average play, and some injury problems in camp actually lead to Forney surprisingly not making the 53 man roster.  Unfortunately Vasquez didn't last past the 1st half of the first game and we have seen Mruczkowski and Dombrowski in that spot since them.  Surprisingly, the right side of the line has held up pretty well.  Clary has done pretty well against some decent pass rushers.  He had a little trouble in the Raider game, but overall has done well.  It will be interesting to see him against the Steelers in a few weeks to compare his play to his lackluster playoff game last year.  Dombrowski has taken the majority of the snaps at RG and has looked really good, especially considering he is a second year guy who was on the practice squad all last year.  All in all, I'd say this area of concern isn't worrying me too much right now.  I may change my might after the Steelers game (even the Dolphins have Joey Porter and Jason Taylor and will present a good challenge)

more after the jump...

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Hank Bauer, 9-16, Jeff and Josh, XTRA Sports (mp3)

• Last year we played well enough to win in week 1, but lost.  This year we played poorly and won, which would you rather have?
• The Raiders were up for this game, and to the Chargers credit, we did what we had to do to win.
• How do you stop Joe Flacco?  Stay the course.  Stop the run first.  Rice, McGahee, and McLain are a real good combination.  Flacco will make mistakes.  In 6 games last year he threw two interceptions.  He is still a young QB and young QBs stink it up every now and then
• In the first half against the Raiders, we got pushed around.  9 yard per carry in the 1st half.  Thanks to Cable for trying to throw the ball every now and then
• The second half looked alot better.
• Give this team a few weeks before you judge them.

Scott Mruczkowski, 9-16, Darren Smith, XX Sports (mp3)

• Moochie!
• Everyone calls me Mooch.  Coach Turner called me Scott this morning in a meeting and I didn't know who he was talking to.
• How was practice this afternoon? good, crisp, getting the game plan installed
• Role this week? The plan is for me to be starting at center since Nick Hardwick is injured.  Never started at center in the NFL before.
• What do you do to prepare yourself for a moment like that, where you had to go right in the game after an injury?  I like to loosened up a bit before every offensive series to make sure I'm a little warm and ready to go.  Easier to do in SD in September than in Chicago in the winter...
• How different are the Center and guard positions?  Everyone is different, but I've played both since college.  Technique-wise they are a little different, but I've blocked every play the Chargers call from all 5 of the o-line positions
• How much time do you practice at center during the week (Before Hardwick was injured)?  Just a couple reps a week with the 1st team.
• What's it like with a Dombrowski and Murczkowski on the line? A lot of Polish beef on the line! Pirogies and kielbasas for everyone, and a round of bowling after wards!
• Ravens? Same Ravens defense as always, big tough and fast.  Solid team and a big challenge.
• Straight 3-4 defense? Yeah, similar to us.  They mix in some 4 down every now and then.
• How about Phillip's taunting penalty?  I was there, all he said was "Stop on the whistle" and tossed the ball, not sure if the refs misconstrued it.
• How is the fund raiser going for MCLEF? Great, two rushing TDs last week so we're a bit over $1000 so far.

Nick Hardwick, 9-15, Darren Smith, XX Sports (mp3)

• Doing better than expected today!
• Kind of a weird play, any idea what happened?  I didn't realize that it was the delay of game penalty play... such a waste to get hurt on a dead play.
• I'm day to day and I feel that way.  Felt good this morning.  In a walking boot right now, just to take some pressure off.  We'll see what we can do this week.  Could have been a lot worse,
• What is going through your mind when you're down on the field injured?  Just want to get in touch with the family and let them know you're doing all right.
• How were the fans at Oakland?  Fans were hissing at me as I was getting carted off. The things that come out of some of their mouths is ridiculous.  How about some humanity? With kids around and everything.
• Mooch and Dombrowski came in and did a really good job in a really high pressure situation.  I think there may be a joke in there somewhere: two Polocks come up to the offensive line...
• Dombrowski actually had a great block on a play he had never even practiced before.  Makes an awesome block on an LB and Sproles follows him into the end zone.
• One good thing about that game is that it really revealed and built character, poise and guts.  Ready to make the plays when you have to.
• The Raiders didn't run anything we didn't expect.  Fewer dogs and blitzes actually.  They were really "assignment sharp"
• How much do you guys actually spend practicing the two minute drill?  A lot, it's a situation we'll see twice a week sometimes and can be a huge swing.
• Guess for us, go or no go on Sunday?  Too early to tell, it's a short week.

Brandyn Dombrowski on XTRA (mp3)

Scott Mruczkowski on XTRA (mp3)

Jim Steeg, 9-15, Jeff and Josh XTRA Sports (mp3)

• Happy to get out of Oakland with a win and out alive
• Get the Chargers DVD at your local DVD retailer Target, Best Buy (or amazon)!
• New rules for the stadium? no smoking in the stadium. no bottles in the lot.  Must tailgate in your own spot. Get there early, this isn't preseason anymore.  Lot typically closes 2 hrs before the game because it's full.  Don't try to get into the stadium 15 minutes before game time, you won't make it to your seat in time.

619 Sports

• LT on his injury (1:33)
• Norv on 7 offensive lineman (1:20)
• Norv on injuries (51 secs)

Travis Johnson, 9-9, Jeff and Josh, XTRA Sports (9:40)

• My Game: Side line to side line, no seatbelt
• sounds like a good guy

I don't think I'm breaking any new ground by assuming the Chargers are going to win the AFC West.  Of course, anything can happen, but most of the pundits are choosing the Chargers to win the west and I think most of the other teams are admitting that that Chargers are at least the favorite in the division.  The Chargers have arguably the most talent in the division, they definitely had the most stability in terms of players and coaches over the off-season, and they have recent success on their side, with 3 consecutive divisional championships.

After the jump, we've got a look at each team, what they did last year and what the outlook is for this year.  And, of course, we've got a poll to make this all official...

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At some event Roger Goodell was at yesterday, the topic of the Chargers' stadium came up.  He mentioned that the Chargers need a new stadium or a renovation of the existing one. 

“The team has been successful there (in the San Diego market),” he said, according to a transcript e-mailed to media outlets. “They have their challenges as (do) other markets. It's clear the stadium needs to be either completely renovated or a new stadium built in (San Diego).”

The Chargers and Mark Fabiani (the Chargers point man on a new stadium) have said for a long time that renovating the Q was not a viable option.  They have said for about a year or so that the current site is not viable.

Asked about Goodell's reference to renovation, Fabiani said, “It's just not feasible, either technically or financially, and that's something that has been proven over and over again by anyone who has looked at it over the years.”

Fabiani said consultants for the team and the city independently concluded in 2002 and 2003 that renovating Qualcomm Stadium would cost as much as building a new stadium.

He added that even when the team considered building a new stadium on the site – an idea that has since been abandoned – the plan was to build it in a corner of the 166-acre Mission Valley site to allow related development.

“If you leave the stadium right where it is, there's no way to do much development around it, even if it was a good idea,” Fabiani said.

The above quotes were from a Union-Trib article from yesterday.  As usual, the comments are heating up.  People from every part of the spectrum on the issue and saying their piece.

One of the comments was especially interesting:

markfabiani 8 minutes ago  (~ 6:15 AM)

Hi. Mark Fabiani with the Chargers. There have been a couple of questions about the renovations of Solider Field in Chicago and Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Unfortunately, there are big differences between those stadiums and Qualcomm, including:

1. Soldier Field and Lambeau Field were built just for football. As a result, the renovations of those facilities did not involve massive restructuring of the stands in order to improve the sight lines for football. Qualcomm, on the other hand, was built primarily for baseball. The two studies done in San Diego of renovation both concluded that substantial demolition of the stands would be required in order to bring the stadium's sight lines up to modern NFL standards -- hence the conclusion of the studies that it would cost as much to renovate as to build new.

2. In fact, the Soldier Field renovation did cost as much as building a new stadium (almost $400 million back in the early years of this decade). See: http://football.ballparks.com/NFL/ChicagoBears/....

3 Both the Soldier Field and Lambeau Field renovations were substantially paid for with public money. There is no such public money available in the San Diego area, of course, and leaving Qualcomm Stadium in the middle of the current site would pretty much preclude the kind of ancillary development that would be necessary to help privately finance a renovation in San Diego.

Thanks again for the opportunity to comment.

Nice to see Fabiani up bright and early working on the issue.