# Stephen Loftus

• joined Feb 18, 2011
• last login Jul 13, 2014
• posts 45

I'm a graduate student studying to get PhD in Statistics. I graduated undergrad from Appalachian State (Go Mountaineers) and currently am studying at Virginia Tech (Hokie Hokie Hokie Hi!).

I follow almost all sports (Including some off the beaten path ones). However, I live for one sport: baseball. There's nothing like the Great American Game. Its history is unmatched in American sport.

As I am a statistician, I do dabble in sabrmetrics in my spare time not taken up by grading papers, taking classes, teaching classes, and working on my dissertation research.

### A Fan Of...

• MLB Baltimore Orioles
• NCAAF Virginia Tech Hokies
• NCAAB William & Mary Tribe
• Soccer Panathinaikos
• Tennis Roger Federer
• FIFA United States
• General Richmond Kickers

### 2014's most unexpected performances

Every year, some players exceed their projected production level. Who are 2014's most unexpected players as we approach the halfway point?

### Weighted DiscAA: Plate Discipline

There are many ways to quantify plate discipline. Here we introduce a new statistic to evaluate discipline.

### Viewing Masahiro Tanaka Through Similarity Scores

With Masahiro Tanaka's much-heralded start, many try to find his best comparison as a pitcher. Who is Tanaka's most comparable according to Pitcher Similarity Scores?

### Guys who should be bunting

Bunting catches a lot of flack from the sabermetric community, and rightly so. But are there players for whom bunting would be more beneficial to their team than swinging away on average?

### Projecting 2014 Records

Everyone has their own projection system to determine records, so of course I throw my version into the ring.

### 2014 New York Mets Preview

After a middle-of-the-road 2013 season, the Mets endeavor to continue the climb up from perennial blah-ness to playoff contender.

### Should playoff appearances affect MVP voting?

Over the past two years, we've seen a couple of close MVP races go to a player whose team made the playoffs. Do playoff appearances affect a player's standing in the eyes of MVP voters? And if they do, how much should they?

### Do Voters Value Wins Less At Award Time?

For the past few years, the sabermetric community has been pointing out the deficiencies of the pitching win. Have those arguments fallen on deaf ears around awards time, or have voters been valuing the win less?

### IFH and BUH Aging

A 40-year old Ichiro has to have slowed down some since his debut in the majors. But how has this affected ability to reach on infield and bunt hits?

### Determining the most well-rounded player seasons

In baseball, well-rounded five-tool player production is highly coveted. Which players have produced baseball's most statistically well-rounded seasons?

### BtBS HOF Part 2: The outsiders

We've seen who the writers of Beyond the Box Score elected. Now the writing staff explains the exclusions of those who fell short.

### BtBS elects class of 6 for the HOF

Before the BBWAA announces their official vote, the writers at Beyond the Box Score reveal their choices for baseball's highest honor.

### Beyond the Box Score Reader HOF Vote

With the HOF vote to be announced on January 8th, we offer you the readers the opportunity to vote on who you think should be elected to the highest honor in baseball.

### To spend or not to spend...on an ace

At this point in the offseason, many teams have big needs but limited resources. Often, the most common need for a team is starting pitching. But is it worth it to spend on an ace, or would signing two mid-level guys be more efficient?

### Heath Bell to the Rays: Deja vu all over again?

Have the Rays found another reclamation project in Heath Bell?

### Pitcher Similarity Scores 2.0

Which two pitchers are like twins? Who has the most similar fastballs in 2013? We try to answer this in the updated version of pitcher similarity scores.

### Who benefits from their opposition?

Pitcher performance is often considered in the light of their opposition. Previously, we looked at adjusting runs allowed for opponents. Now, we look at this on the component basis.

### Adjusting to Life in the Pen

Phil Hughes has said that he's willing to sign as a reliever next year. How have starters converted to relievers done over the past 40 years?

### How Many Stars Do You Need?

Baseball teams, unlike basketball, need more than one very good player to succeed. How many good to great players does a team need to really compete?

### The heirs of Pedro Cerrano

All players have some hole in their swing. A fun example of this was Pedro Cerrano of the 1989 comedy Major League, who couldn't hit the curveball. Which players today are most susceptible to certain pitches?

### Are Rookies Getting Better?

With the increased coverage of many great rookies, it almost seems that the rookies of today are better than in the past. But is that true?

### When will the "Year of the Pitcher" end?

Since the end of the Steroid Era, we have been living in a perpetual "Year of the Pitcher." When will that era possibly come to an end? And what could we possibly see over the next 20 years?

### 2013's Most Unexpected...So Far

With projection being an inexact science, we occasionally see players exceeding or falling short of their projections. Who has exceeded their supposed level the most so far in 2013?

### Games Played and Percent Change in wOBA

I always enjoyed watching players who always showed up, who always played. But does these high number of games played possibly affect player performance later in their careers?

### OBP, SLG, and the Variability of Seasons

Baseball seasons come with a certain amount of variability. However, we only get one season to observe. So how could we answer whether certain hitting styles lead to more variable seasons?

To conclude my investigation into adjusting statistics for quality of opponent, we put together the leaderboard for OARA in 2012.

### Adjusting Expected Wins For Quality of Opponent

Continuing on the "Opponent Adjusted" kick, we move on to expected wins.

### Adjusting Pitching for Quality of Offense

With pitcher performance partially influenced by the opponent they face, we develop the statistic OARA (Opponent Adjusted Runs Average, pronounced like "aura") to adjust for this.

### What If Pitchers Have To Keep Hitting?

With the DH not coming to the NL until A.S. (After Selig), what type of hitting could we see from pitchers in the coming years?

### Testing and Visualizing Similarity Scores

After developing Similarity Scores, we go through testing and visualizing these scores.

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