Entering this off-season, it was obvious the main weakness of the Leafs has yet again been goaltending. Despite praise worthy statistics in the back half of the 2010-11 season from James Reimer, leading to a nice RFA contract for the young starter in waiting, the Leafs net was anything but solid in 2011-12. Adding a free agent or trading for a veteran may seem like the right thing to do.

The Anaheim Ducks have just signed Viktor Fasth of the SEL to a 1 year, $1 million, 1-way contract, basically hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with the Swedish National Team netminder and MVP of the World Championships and SEL from 2010-11. The Leafs were hoping for the same in recent years when they signed up European UFA goalies Jonas Gustavsson, Jussi Rynnas and Mark Owuya.

This past year, Gustavsson again received the majority of starts for the Leafs, and while he improved over his previous season, his totals were still far down the NHL rankings for goalies with 30+ gp. In fact, amongst goalies with 90+ gp over the past three NHL seasons, Gustavsson ranks 37th of 38 goalies in SV% with a .900. The only goalie with worse numbers is Columbus Blue Jackets starter Steve Mason, who has an .899 SV%.

Ben Scrivens is parlaying the starting gig with the Marlies into a decent stretch, and has been one of the top goalies in the AHL for two years running. Unfortunately this really only prepares him for life as an NHL backup in the immediate future, as taking over the reins as an NHL starter directly from the AHL isn't necessarily guaranteed to work out for the best either. James Reimer's situation is testament to the speed bumps that can occur along the way.

This dilemma has led to many (if not all) Leaf fans fervently advocating for a veteran solution to be brought in and backstop the Buds to a playoff spot. Unfortunately we've been down this road before and there's little to no guarantee that this will provide a solution to the Leafs problem. Follow after the jump for a bit of a dissection of this situation.

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So earlier this season, around the midway point, I started trying to devise a measurement tool to assess defensive skill for defenders. I decided after reading the postings on the Heavy Lifter Index written over at PuckProspectus.com that I could craft something comparable for blue liners, with a few minor tweaks. I ended up writing two postings on what I eventually termed the Shut Down Index (SDI). I have proposed the idea of an index value that compares the play of individual defenders to the league average for NHL D men that play in a minimum number of games. This is done across a select group of categories, with the original categories chosen as follows:

SDI Situational: Corsi REL QoC; Corsi REL QoT; OZ%

SDI Result: Corsi ON; Penalty Differential per 60.

*All data courtesy behindthenet.ca*

In analyzing the numbers I decided that if one is looking for Shut Down Defenders then it makes more sense to look at their Defensive Zone percentage rather than their Offensive Zone percentage, so for this most recent iteration I switched OZ% for DZ%, and I think the numbers make a bit more sense.

To explain in a bit more depth, the player's SDI is determined by determining how many standard deviations above or below the mean a given player is in each category, and adding the results together for SDI Sit, and SDI Res, and then determining the difference between Results and Situational. That is to say, players are rewarded for playing more difficult competition, with worse team-mates from a possession perspective, and from regularly beginning in a worse starting position. They are also rewarded for producing a higher corsi rate (shot attempt differential), and having a good penalty differential (taking fewer than they draw).

As a result of the weight given to starting position and the differential between quality of opposition and team mates, this statistic could (perhaps unfairly) penalize players that play on good possession teams, with high quality team mates, who have fewer starts in the defensive zone, resulting in a lower SDI Sit component. That being said, the results aspect should compensate, as players playing in less stressful situations can exceed average performance in SDI Res scores, and boost their overall SDI rating accordingly.

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Recently we've been treated to copious amounts of "analysis" attempting to find a rational reason for the Leafs dive to the basement of the NHL. The management is throwing its arms up with a "never seen anything like it" response. The team discusses how they "can't explain" what's going on with the group who have obviously come unglued and lost all confidence in their abilities as NHL caliber athletes.

We've had media members say they can't remember the last time a team started as poorly under a new head coach following a mid-season change, despite the fact that Montreal - possibly the only NHL franchise analyzed as close to death as Toronto - had an almost identical record under Randy Cunneyworth earlier this year.

We've also had articles brought forward that interviewed the past leadership core and apparently now groups of former NHL players who prefer to remain anonymous while casting aspersions on the current Leafs roster. All in all I think the narrative being constructed around "what went wrong in Leaf land" is almost as ridiculous a death spiral as what the team is currently going through.

Following the jump I'd like to explore a bit of history with the Leafs, and remind people that while things ARE going atrociously right now, there are explanations, and reasons for optimism, none of which involve the "leadership" of the current group. Dave Feschuk should definitely read this and take some notes.

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On Feb 28th, I posted a look at the Leafs upcoming schedule and how we could expect them to do. The basic premise was to make use of the log5 method first devised by Bill James, and the home and away goal differentials via the pythagenpuck win probabilities model to assess the likelihood of the Leafs winning or losing individual games against their competition.

There's also been a recent posting by Garrett Baumann at MLHS that delves into the relationship between Goals For, Goals Against, and Expected Point Percentages in a bit of depth, so you can check it out here if you're interested. If you're intrigued, this is generally how most record prediction is done in sports analysis at this stage of things, though other factors obviously impact upon results.

Well, we've gone through 7 games since that posting, and the predicted results - while not exact game to game - are right on point as the Leafs predicted record was 1-5-1, and the Leafs have gone... 1-5-1. The games that swung things were the unexpected regulation loss to Florida, and slight boosts in Montreal from an OT loss to a win, and in Philadelphia from a regulation to an OT loss.

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Looks like the team's new head coach, Randy Carlyle realizes something many of us around Leaf land have been saying for a while: Mikhail Grabovski is the Leafs top Centre. It appears important that Carlyle get off on the right foot with this team in a relatively short period of time if he hopes to salvage this season. As a result, it looks like - based on an admittedly tiny single game sample size - that Mikhail Grabovski is going to be playing top line minutes.

Stranger still to many Leaf fans may have been the appearance on the time-sheet of Clarke MacArthur 2nd amongst Leaf forwards in ice time. I've been arguing for a while that his production for his ice time vastly outweighs his perceived value. People who have argued in favour of moving MacArthur need not step forward - you know who you are. Very few players produce the way MacArthur has been in such limited minutes. Read on after the jump for a bit of a break down on what I'm referring to.

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So in a quick discussion around Home and Road goal differentials around the NHL last night on Twitter with Julian (PPP) and Neil Greenberg, the Washington Capitals blogger from the Washington Post, he linked to a story he had posted recently on the Caps likely probability of winning their games for the remainder of the season using the Log5 method originally devised by Bill James of Baseball Abstract and now Moneyball fame.

In an attempt to refine the results, I determined the team win percentages using the Pythagenpuck formula derived by Alan Ryder in his Win Probabilities paper from 2004, which is a modified Pythagorean win percentages model based on goals for and against.

If you care to look into the math in more detail follow the links above, if you don't? Read on and trust my numbers.

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Recently lots of talk has been in the offing around what and where the Leafs need to change if they hope to make the playoffs. The main stream media has been discussing the trade possibilities posed by this young Leafs squad, and much of this is due to Brian Burke's stated view that he would like to make moves that improve his team's long term outlook. This does not mean the team should - or will - mortgage the future in order to pick up veterans for a push right now. But if a trade is made, what do the Leafs need more of?

Alternatively - there are the occasional rumblings from Leafs fans that - despite a contract extension - Ron Wilson is the main problem in Leaf land. Fingers are pointed at the team's woeful penalty kill ranking (surprising given the fact that it has allowed 1 goal against since 2012 began), and much is made of Wilson's "inept" inability to counter different approaches thrown at the Leafs by their opposition.

I propose that we examine some of the underlying numbers from the past three seasons - both at the 56 game mark and the end of the season - in order to assess where the problems with this team may lie, both now, and into the future. Let's see if we can get at what is working, what will get better, and what might get worse.

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So yesterday I ran down the numbers on a new statistic that's targeted at determining who the best defensive defensemen are in the NHL. I referred to it as the SDI or Shut Down Index, and to briefly summarize it compares a blue liner's Corsi REL QoC, Corsi REL QoT, OZ%, Corsi ON/60, and Penalty Differential to their peers in a given season using the number of standard deviations above or below average in each category (with a 20% weighting on Penalty Differential).

I was pretty happy with the results but there were a few inquisitive minds that seemed to misunderstand the point of the exercise. I am NOT looking to determine who the best all-around defender is in the NHL with this statistic. I am well aware that many top D men will not fare well in these rankings as a result of their higher OZ% and Corsi REL QoT. What I was trying to determine, and this is the key part, is who is doing the best job while carrying a heavy defensive work-load in the NHL.

Today I plan on carrying the work forward a little bit further - in an effort to assess who the best Shut Down D are in the NHL right now, and secondly giving you all a glimpse of how the Toronto Maple Leafs have fared since 2007-08 in this regard.

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How often have we heard the idea that defensive blue liners are a "dime a dozen" in the NHL? Probably far more than we should frankly. As a skill set, the defensive defender's repertoire is difficult to master at a high level, and in some ways it is even more difficult to quantify effectively. Knowing where to be on the ice, when to be there, and actually being physically capable of playing such a role is extremely demanding. The best defenders take the lion's share of a team's tough minutes, and prevent the best of the opposition from doing much damage offensively. This conveniently allows other less capable defensemen on their team to be "sheltered" from the proverbial storm and makes everyone look better in the process.

Daniel Wagner of the Vancouver Sun has recently been applying this very concept - which he terms 'enabling' - in his breakdown of the Vancouver Canucks usage of 4th line centre Manny Malholtra. He is counted upon to do the dirty work on the ice in the defensive zone so the Canucks more offensively gifted players can spend more time on offense doing what they do best - scoring goals and producing points both on the ice and eventually in the standings. This is basically the same concept I am attempting to get at only for defenders.

So how do we describe the guys that face the toughest minutes? Well generally speaking they'll be counted on to play on the Penalty Kill, and they'll be expected to face the best lines the opposition has to throw on the ice at even strength - for the method I plan on using I'm going to focus on the latter. Using behindthenet.ca we can form a pretty detailed picture of what it takes to be considered a defender in the shut down mold, and even more importantly, who the best players are in that role.

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A little while ago I was in discussion with Cam Charron about Shot Blocking metrics and the problems of normalization, and he directed me to work by Daniel Wagner over at the Score and a recent posting by Derek Zona over at Copper and Blue, which in turn prompted me to dissect the shot blocking abilities of the Leafs roster. I did the actual data analysis over a week ago, but a busy end of semester schedule has prevented me from getting things typed out for your perusal.

One of the main issues with shot blocks is the numbers generally favour players that are on the ice without control of the puck. Skaters with poor puck possession skills tend to climb the rankings of the shot blocking stat sheet - with the most noteworthy example, Ryan Johnson, making an appearance on Coaches Corner before being dumped from the NHL for his less than stellar play.

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So a couple of days ago, after watching yet another Leafs loss in 86" of gory glory, I caught myself briefly agreeing with people that think making a trade of one of our young D men makes sense going forward. Luke Schenn, Keith Aulie, and Jake Gardiner had all made significant gaffes in the loss to the Panthers, and while the goaltending didn't help, I kept asking myself - are we really prepared to wait for these kids to develop into reliable D men?

The reason this jumped to the forefront is actually not a result of their defensive play at all, but more the play we're witnessing out of Phil Kessel, his linemate Joffrey Lupul, and the likes of Tyler Bozak, Mikhail Grabovski, Clarke MacArthur, Tim Connolly, and to a lesser extent Nikolai Kulemin (who is in the midst of a definite down year).

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Ok so as I was perusing various statistical pages last night, I stumbled across some interesting team statistics that have received nary a mention in the mainstream press. Why? you might be asking yourself, would we want to know anything that isn't quoted in the mainstream press?

Well folks, the main reason you might want to know is because the press is fond of spinning things a certain way to convince you a team is or isn't playing well at a certain time of year. This helps fit with narratives that the writers construct as they carry you through the season. They may not even be doing it consciously. I know I do it, I'm aware of the spin I put on things, but I usually own up to it when it's pointed out.

For instance, I'll gladly harp on players I've touted as possible successes whenever they play well during the regular season. Similarly, members of the MSM will often point at poor aspects of the Leafs game, and highlight them as if they mean horrible things for the state of hockey in Toronto. Read on for some examples.

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Reflect back to the start of last season.  Think back to when Clarke MacArthur first showed up in Leaf land, fresh from signing a one year, $1.1 million dollar contract that was a $300 K reduction from his previous contract.  

MacArthur had gone to arbitration as an RFA with the Atlanta Thrashers, having just finished a 2009-10 NHL campaign that saw him post 16 goals and 35 points in 81 games. He went in with the mindset that if he and his agent expected the arbitrator to come up with a reasonable number, he'd have to high ball the team, who would then low ball them back, and end up somewhere in the middle.  Unfortunately the gamble didn't work - at least not exactly.  The Thrashers (and current Leafs Director of Player Personnel Rick Dudley - then Thrashers GM) walked away from MacArthur's arbitration without tabling an offer, making the young winger an unrestricted free agent.

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So a couple of days ago if you read the From The Branches, or if you keep tabs on what Gabe Desjardins is up to at BehindTheNet.ca (or Arctic Ice Hockey), you may have noticed that the Fenwick Percentages for the 2011-12 season were added to the mix of advanced stats that are maintained on his site.

This is great news for those of you that are interested in explanations of what they've seen so far this young NHL season.  People like numbers when they can summarize things quickly.  It helps when they know what the heck they mean, but being able to compare teams quickly and accurately in a fashion that's meaningful is really what makes things in sports stats worthwhile (in my opinion).

We've obviously got the point system for that as far as the standings go, but the problem with using points and standings is that we don't have an easy way to account for strength of schedule, competition, good or bad refereeing, luck, etc.  It's hard to figure out half way though the year which teams are good, and which teams are just lucky.

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By this point last year, Nikolai Kulemin had posted 4 goals and 5 assists on 26 shots, during a "slow start" en route to a 30 goal 57 point season.  So far this year he has 2 goals and 4 assists on 25 shots, during an even SLOWER start, en route to lord knows what kind of production.  And yet, all is not lost.

Last year Kulemin was "cold" early, netting only 1 goal through his first 10 games, before heating up in November and potting 8 goals in 13 games.  The funny thing about that is, he had 3 goals through the first 3 games of November, but then he bunched his production of the other 5 goals into another 3 games throughout the month.  He only scored goals in 6 of the 13 games, so it wasn't like he was amazingly consistent to produce those 8 goals.  Through the first 2 months last year he had goals in only 7 of his first 16 games.  

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Last year at the trade deadline the Leafs dealt Tomas Kaberle to the Boston Bruins in exchange for Joe Colborne, and 1st and 2nd round draft picks (that we traded to get Tyler Biggs and John-Michael Liles respectively).  Theoretically if Biggs pans out, and the Leafs at some point either re-sign or move Liles, that deal could equate to Tomas Kaberle as a rental in exchange for two key forward pieces in Colborne and Biggs, plus an offensive defender of comparable caliber OR further prospects.

Not quite a steal as the Bruins and Kaberle won a Stanley Cup, but still a pretty solid return for a rental to put them over the hump.  So far Biggs is toiling away in relative anonymity at the University of Miami (Ohio) with the Redhawks, a top notch NCAA Div I program, most noteworthy to Leaf fans in recent seasons as the school where Brian Burke's son Brendan was working as team manager at the time of his death.  Liles has put up 6 points in his first 8 Leaf games and looks to be an offensively productive player, even if his defense leaves a bit to be desired.

The key piece to this puzzle remains the lanky centre prospect the Leafs obtained from Boston in the initial transaction though, Joe Colborne.  Selected 16th overall in the 2008 entry draft, 11 picks after Luke Schenn, and immediately before Leafs rookie Jake Gardiner (also obtained in a trade last season from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for Francois Beauchemin), Colborne is still very early in his career at 21 years of age.  

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It's Wednesday night, there's no Leafs game on, the Marlies game is on 640 AM here, and there is a Habs/Flyers game to trash on TSN. Scrivens is in net, and Colborne is trying to continue his point streak.

So if anyone is interested in continuing the hockey convo, or wants some more advanced stats discussion feel free to continue in the comments section.

So far this season it looks like more of the same from Jonas Gustavsson.  As we head into a match up versus the Philadelphia Flyers, many Leaf fans are are shaking their heads at the decision to bring Gustavsson back for another kick at the can as an NHL level netminder.  I can understand this perception and it's obvious that to some extent Leaf fans are extremely frustrated with their perceptions that they have been saddled with substandard goaltending for half a decade - particularly prior to the arrival of James Reimer.

This is where I begin to enter a point of debate - how LONG of a term is required to assess a goalie's quality?  Jonas Gustavsson has played 67 games through the first 2+ seasons of his career, seeing the ice for a total of 3683 minutes thus far.  Generally speaking once you've seen 3000 minutes of play you'd THINK you'd be able to determine just how good a player is. Read on for some reasoning as to why you can't.

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So the Leafs made it to OT and Grabovski scored a beautiful game winner.

I'm not talking about this much because I'm drinking and have company, you guys can do the rest.

I'm drinking Champagne to celebrate... you all should also.

P.S. - FUCK THE HABS!

Juraj Mikus and Korbinian Holzer are a pair of 23 year old  defenders with the Toronto Marlies.  Mikus was drafted in 2007 in the 5th round, 144th overall, 50 picks before Carl Gunnarsson.  Holzer was drafted in 2006, in the 4th round, 111th overall, 12 selections after James Reimer and 50 selections before Viktor Stalberg.

Both have developed reasonably sound games at the AHL level, and both are consistent, reliable, and reasonably skilled performers as professionals.  Holzer actually has Olympic and World Championship experience on behalf of his native Germany, and appears to possess a large amount of defensive poise against fairly tough competition.  In many senses he is following a similar path to that laid out by the slightly older (yet later drafted) Carl Gunnarsson.

Mikus is 9 months younger, and the more offensively inclined of the two, but he is also less polished defensively.  He is also an inch taller, and prior to this season had yet to really stake a firm claim to a job on the Marlies blue line.  So far this year he's off to a solid start though, as he went +4 in the Marlies two game series against Lake Erie last weekend.

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Despite a 3-0-1 record, there are a lot of questions with the current edition of the Leafs.  Aside from the top pairing of Phaneuf (+8) and Carl Gunnarsson (+4), the Leafs D has proved to be a bit of a conundrum so far this season.  Mike Komisarek has continued to demonstrate some of the holes in his game that have become obvious during his tenure in Toronto.  His slow foot speed and mental gaffes have already led to numerous goal scoring chances against.  John-Michael Liles has provided some offense but his defensive miscues lead one to the conclusion that he provides about as much defense as was advertised prior to his acquisition.  Jake Gardiner has played about 14 minutes a night and skates the puck up ice well, but his defensive game needs some polish at this point.

Follow after the jump for a bit more depth on some (very) early trends so far this season (I know I know, Small Sample Size).

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Earlier this spring, I compared Carl Gunnarsson to Keith Aulie, following the logic that Gunnarsson was more deserving a top pairing role than Aulie.  Looks like - for the moment at least - that's how it's shaken out.  Aulie was demoted to the AHL's Toronto Marlies, and Gunnarsson is set to play in the top pairing with Dion Phaneuf on opening night.

That hasn't changed, and frankly we shouldn't be surprised that Mike Komisarek is in the Leafs top 6.  He's the team's 2nd highest paid defender, and he's considered a vocal leadership voice both in the dressing room and on the ice.  Sure his numbers have been atrocious, but his defense first mentality is something the team needs as it looks to make the D more mobile going into this season.

Which brings me to the confusion of the moment from where many Leafs analysts sit.  Why is Cody Franson on the outside looking in, while Komisarek is holding down the 6th spot on the team?  The simple answer - which is already being tossed around in the media thanks to trade rumours - is that Carl Gunnarsson is just being showcased as a top pairing defender until he can be moved to add some offensive size and skill to the forward units.  I don't personally think the simple answer is the correct one.

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The Preseason is over, the final demotions have yet to happen (wait until Monday), and the Leafs now have the regular season on the docket.  It looks like some of the injuries to our centres will sort themselves out prior to Thursday's opener against the Habs, but we're not 100% sure on that yet.

Last week in a conversation with Chemmy, we kind of came up with the idea of Crowd Sourcing some potential decisions in Leaf Land.  Basically what I'm saying is, I'm going to put some of this to a vote, and while it has no bearing on reality, I want to see where the majority of readers on here want to see things go.  The idea is NOT to vote for what you think is most likely, but to vote for what you WANT to see on the ice.  You DO need to take into account waivers, salaries, and the advantages and disadvantages to ruining a prospect or screwing up their development though.  Pretend you're Ron Wilson and Brian Burke (and all the other Leafs management types) and pick the lines you think make the most sense.

Read on after the Jump to add your vote - let's see what the masses think.

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The mainstream press in Toronto (and across Canada) often has a bit of an axe to grind when it comes to things Maple Leaf.  They dislike the way the team is built, or the people running it, or the coach, or the fans, or the colour of their uniforms, etc. They also seem to have a hard time with the fact that the team is the wealthiest in Canada, and most likely the entire NHL, and apparently they enjoy nipping at the hand that feeds them.

Unfortunately this often leads to them writing or saying stupid things about the Leafs that don't make a lot of sense.  Follow the jump for a few examples from the past couple of days of the pre-season:

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The other day, I did a break down of the comparison between Luke Schenn and Dion Phaneuf based largely on their play last season defensively.  That discussion largely focused on which of those two should be "leading" the Leafs defensively, and really the results came out in a wash.  Phaneuf played more difficult competition, but Schenn's numbers were slightly more flattering.  You either chalk that up to better team mates and harder competition for Phaneuf, or better play for Schenn, but really it's hard to prove conclusively either way.

The discussion for me ended up cementing the opinion (which I've had for a while) that Phaneuf and Schenn weren't all that dissimilar defensively last year, and really if Schenn keeps developing, he should eventually take over as one of the key shut down guys for the Leafs.  Considering he just signed a 5 year contract, and he's still only 21 (turning 22 on November 2nd) then that leaves lots of room for growth.

But where does that leave the rest of the blue line.  Follow after the jump for a bit more of a dissection of the situation.

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A few days ago, there was a fairly drawn out debate over whether or not Luke Schenn is a superior defender to Dion Phaneuf.  Some would argue Phaneuf is "easily" the superior blue liner, and I feel it's quite easy to concede that fact on an offensive basis, at least superficially.  Phaneuf is generally regarded as one of the top offensive defenders in the NHL and has been for all intents and purposes since his rookie season.

Defensively though, I am not entirely certain whether this is entirely justifiable.  Earlier in the summer, David Johnson at Puckosphere.com threw some cold water on the idea that Schenn was a "capable" defender, but there were some issues I had with his analysis.  Largely the fact that he ignored goaltending effects and concluded Schenn is inferior as a result of the number of goals allowed with him on the ice.  

More recently, there have been repeated suggestions that Phaneuf's higher Corsi REL QoC and lower Corsi REL QoT values indicate that he was playing with worse line mates against tougher competition (ironically the same people may have argued that Corsi is a "horrible stat"... let me know if you can figure that one out).

So... let's try to sift through the chaff in all of this discussion and in a more concise fashion describe what we know about the two d-men from last season.

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Yesterday we ran through the first four selections of the Leafs 2011 Draft, describing statistical comparables and running through some ideas of their potential.  I may have come across as a tad harsh with respect to the Leafs first of two first round selections, Tyler Biggs.  Before the angry e-mails get sent my way, I should point out that I did not and would not predict that Biggs will be a failure in the NHL.  He may yet develop into a consistent offensive contributor, but at this stage, there is little in his offensive output to indicate that is likely.  Hope springs eternal, and the Leafs scouting staff obviously see a few things in Biggs game that they value highly.  His size, truculence and solid skating are definite positives, and will likely serve him well in making his way to the NHL.  My main concern is that the Leafs traded away a high 2nd round pick in order to move up to draft a player that is unlikely to be significantly more important to their future than a player they could have selected at the 30 slot (where they were originally positioned).  

If one looks at the list of players taken between 22 and 30 (minus the 25th selection Stuart Percy who also went to the Leafs), there is no reason to assume Joe Morrow, Matt Puempel, Zack Phillips, Nicklas Jensen, Vladislav Namestikinov, Rickard Rakell, Phillip Danault... or even second round selections David Musil, Ty Rattie, Rocco Grimaldi, Tomas Jurco, Boone Jenner, Scott Mayfield, Dmitrij Jaskin, Victor Rask, Alexander Khokhlachev, Brandon Saad, Brett Ritchie, or Nikita Kucherov couldn't provide a comparable contribution in other aspects of the game to what Biggs would.

The plus side in the non-trade scenario is that the Leafs would now boast 3 of these players, or 2 more in addition to Percy (or Biggs, or whomever else would have fallen to them).  Do not mistake my disdain for Biggs' upside as an indictment of the player selected.  I'm more perturbed that the difference he will make is relatively insignificant in comparison to the difference presented by any of the other players in his range, and certainly is unlikely to be significantly superior to two players from that group.

Moving on from this discussion though, let us examine the remainder of the Leafs selections from the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.

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Ok, I know a lot of these draft picks are being analyzed from various perspectives around the Barilkosphere already.  I'm also aware most of you may have already looked into some of this information.  That being said, I'm going to attempt to do a bit of a rundown on comparables, and where the players the Leafs selected are at in their development.

Tyler Biggs - 22nd overall

I'll run through these in the order they were selected, so first up we have the Leafs initial choice, 22nd overall selection Tyler Biggs of the US NTDP.

First off I think it's important to point out that Burke and his scouting staff seem to have selected a number of kids with 1993 birthdates.  Biggs kicked this trend off, being born on April 30th of '93.  In comparison, Gabriel Landeskog who was selected 2nd overall by the Avalanche was born on November 23rd of '92.  That might not seem like a big gap, but when you're dealing with a single year of development amongst teens, a 5 month gap is almost half a year and can be pretty significant developmentally.

At this point it should be clear that Tyler Biggs does not project as a significant offensive contributor.  Despite Burke's statements to the contrary, Biggs has had a very limited offensive output for a first rounder.  In two USHL seasons, his ppg production rate is only 0.50.  By way of comparison, the likes of Thomas Vanek produced at a 1.42 ppg clip with 80 goals, and 153 points in 108 games.  

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