SB Nation User Blog: Steve Nichols

MHR Chalk Talk - Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos '09

Steve Nichols — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 09:49:44 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

During practice this week, and under the watchful eye of Coach "Jedi" McDaniels, Broncos QB Kyle Orton practices levitating a football. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Browse more photos »

I have a lot on my mind right now, and I want to touch on each issue that is rumbling around in my head.

1) The loss of Bengals receiver Chris Henry

2) The great effort by Denver in their loss in Indianapolis

3) The beating we are about to administer to the Raiders, and...

4) What is in store for the Broncos, this year and next.

Let's start with the big news of the week, the death of Chris Henry. I don't know the circumstances surrounding the death of Chris. I know there was a domestic dispute, and Chris fell out of the rear of a moving pickup truck. But that's it. I'm not interested in who was at fault, and what led up to this tragedy. Here's what I do know:

Chris was a young father. There are young children whose lives are going to be impacted by this death, and that is more crucial than anything having to do with football. My prayers are with them.

Second (and not even on the scale of importance as the loss of a human life) is the question as to how the Bengals will choose to react to this tragedy. This week the Bengals play the Chargers. As we know, the Broncos would like to see the Chargers lose as many games as possible in the final three weeks. CIN is the biggest threat left for the Chargers (the other two games are at TEN and home against WAS). Will the Bengals take this death too hard to play four quarters of football, or will they play an inspired game?

I was against SD in this game, but now I'm for Cincy. I'm sure much of the football world will be, too. Let's keep Chris's children in our prayers.

Denver is a Very Good Team

What did I want and expect from Denver this year? A record of at least 8 wins, and improved play. Well, I've received what I wanted (and expected).

Our defense is exciting to watch! Brian Dawkins is all over the field making big plays, Elvis Dumervil is looking like the sack leader of 2009, and Andre' Goodman and Renaldo Hill have held their own with Champ Bailey for for playing at an elite level. Robert Ayers and Darcel McBath look like they have secure futures with the team, and Andra Davis has silenced the naysayers that claimed he didn't belong on the same team as D.J. Williams. Denver has one of the best defenses in the League right now, and the hiring of Mike Nolan to run the defense was brilliant.
When Josh McDaniels had to determine the best way to get something in return for Jay Cutler, his options were limited. He took Kyle Orton and a few draft picks. Right now, Orton is playing much better than Cutler (many of us would have said this was even the case before the trade), and that number one pick from Chicago is looking like a real gem right now. Orton isn't flashy, but he isn't giving the ball (and ballgames) away either.
I don't like the fact that we "only" rank 12th in running the ball. Still, Knowshon Moreno is on track to go over 1,000 yards for the season (despite sharing the running load), and Correll Buckhalter averages 5.3 yards a carry. I'll take it.

It sucked losing to Indianapolis, didn't it? Well, not entirely. First of all (as our own John Bena points out), this isn't the same Broncos team of the last few years that would have been blown out. It was a tight game. Denver blew some chances in the red zone (including a missed FG, and an INT in the end zone), but the team also played for 60 minutes and did a lot of things right.

I read Ted Bartlett's excellent ST&NO article on Tuesday, and found myself nodding my head in agreement time and time again with his take on our Indy game. I'd like to copy and paste many of his thoughts here, but I'd have to use most of his article, so you might as well just click the link I provided and read the whole thing again because it is that good. Here are the highlights -

The Broncos outgained Indianapolis 357-312. They held the ball for 31:27, versus the Colts' 28:33. They won the turnover battle 3-1. The Broncos advanced into Colts territory on 8 of 12 possessions.

And now I'll just paraphrase some more thoughts from the story -

We proved that we can disrupt Manning. Andre' Goodman was brilliant. Darcel McBath may be lost to IR, but he had a heck of a game before going down to injury. In fact, he was awesome. Indy didn't have an answer for Brandon Marshall (more on this in a moment). Jabar Gaffney looked good. Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil looked great (despite a lack of sacks). Doom (despite a recent fanpost calling for a trade due to his lack of ability in run stopping) continues to handle run stopping and pass rushing duties like a pro.

And now about Brandon Marshall. The Broncos may be trying to sound "politicaly correct" when they say that they weren't trying to get the ball to Marshall over and over. Coach McDaniels says that Marshall happened to be open a lot, so that is where the ball went. I appreciate what the coach is saying, but he's reciting "coach speak" because he's too polite to state the cold, hard truth.

The truth is, Marshall was open some of the time, and some of the time he wasn't. But the bottom line is, nobody in the Colts secondary had even the smallest trace of ability to stop The Beast. Simply put, Marshall did a brilliant job of out-muscling, out-jumping, and outdistancing his opponents on nearly every play. The Tampa-2 remains a good defense, but it still takes mediocre cornerbacks and puts them into positions to make plays. When a good QB like Kyle Orton can dink and dunk underneath the coverage, a powerful man like Marshall can make the catches and run over lesser corners. Coach McDaniels has too much class to put it like that, but that's how it was. We kept going to the well because the well wasn't drying up, and the guys guarding the well just weren't that good.

We have beat great teams this year, and lost a close game to a probable Super Bowl contender. I feel great!

The Oakland Raiders

How bad have things gotten in Oakland? This bad (warning - strong language). When the editor of a fan blog goes this far over the top, we know that things have collapsed completely. The unfortunate linked story tells us everything we need to know about the Raiders organization. Most notably, that the fan base is disgusted with their own team.

Where to begin? Denver is saying all the right things in their press conferences (such as "Oakland is a better team than their record, and they're capable of big plays if we aren't careful"), but really, c'mon now.

As a coach, I am going to pump my team up as much as possible. Any team can beat any other team if one of those teams isn't playing at a high level. But here's the problem. This is a new Denver team, a team that plays with the "Brian Dawkins Work Ethic". We don't let up, and we play hard. The shenanigans (or Shanahanigans) of the last three or so years have ended. This team is pumped up and playing hard. I frankly can't see the Denver Broncos taking a team for granted anymore.

Here is what you need to know as we go into this game.

First, Oakland is a terrible team on offense. They are second-to-last in the following vital stats - points, yards, and pass yards. In fact, they only average 11.9 points per game. And while they rank 31st in those areas, they rank only 22nd in running the ball. Denver's defense matches up perfectly - 4th in preventing points, 3rd in preventing yards, 2nd in preventing the pass. Denver is 15th in stopping the run.

Things are so bad, that posters at S&BP are excited about the prospect of seeing their third string QB get the start!

On defense, things aren't much better. The Raiders are 26th in preventing points, 28th in stopping yards, and 30th in stopping the run. At least they are 17th in stopping the pass (which isn't saying much). Meanwhile, the Broncos are a better match on the offensive side of things, though the stats aren't great. Denver is 20th in points, 17th in yards, 18th in passing yards, and 12th in the rush. Still, Denver has a record-setting WR, a careful QB, and excellent RBs.

Do the Raiders have any hope at all? Of course they do. Everything (including home-field advantage) screams for a Broncos blowout over the Raiders, but it isn't a done deal.

First of all, the Raiders have players that anyone should respect. That the team doesn't play together as a team is their downfall. The Raiders have good running backs in depth, and any of them could break a good play with good blocking and poor defense by Denver. But with a 5-2 look and motivated play from Denver, I'm not sure this will be an issue.

The Raiders also have a decent defensive line, but right DE Greg Ellis is probably out for this game. A good match-up may be LDE Richard Seymour against Denver RT Tyler Polumbus.

One of the better players for Oakland is Nnamdi Asomugha, a young and very talented CB. He'll face Brandon Marshall. Even with excellent coverage, Orton has several other places to go with the ball (3 other excellent receivers, and two TEs).

Sadly, the best player on the Oakland team (in my opinion) is kicker Sebastian Janikowski. He has the power and accuracy to make just about any field goal, and the thin air in Denver only gives him better chances to score.

Denver's biggest weakness isn't players or coaches, it is injuries. Denver's primary running back is out for this game. RDE/OLB Elvis Dumervil didn't practice, and neither did SS Renaldo Hill.

So forgive me for the keys to this game sounding a bit, well, tongue in cheek. I'm being serious.

Keys to the Game

Oakland -

Forget about this game. If you want to start winning games, the change needs to come from the top. Al Davis is unable to keep his claws out of the team's football operations. He has brought in a boxer instead of a head coach, a QB who needs Jenny Craig more than Kirstie Alley does, and forces the team to play a vertical offense approach that has been outdated for decades. Throw in the terrible player moves of late (such as the Javon Walker signing), and this team isn't going to win many games. Until Al Davis is removed, the Oakland Raiders are the ~~Detroit Lions~~ Oakland Raiders of the NFL.
Pray that the Broncos take you for granted like Pittsburgh did.
Run the ball, and pray to God that Denver makes mistakes.

Denver -

Take this game seriously. The only way that you lose this game is to play against the Raiders as if the Raiders are as bad as they are. Play your own brand of football, and play hard on every down. Everything else will work out.
Limit mistakes. If you want to hand the game to Oakland, get some penalties and turnovers.
Curb the excessive celebrations. I expect a lot of great plays on offense, defense, and special teams. If you take off your helmet (I won't mention any names) or do a choreographed dance, we can get penalized. (lol)

Where do we go from here?

With a newly built team that doesn't sleep on games, I expect wins against KC and OAK at home. The game that really intrigues me is the one against Philly. I have this game circled on my calendar as an excellent game against a good team. I also see it as a prelude to the playoffs. How we play against the Eagles in an away game will tell me a lot about our postseason chances. More on that game next week.

If the Broncos can win the last three games (I'd put the odds at about 50/50) and SD loses to CIN and drops a game in TEN, I really like where the Broncos could end up. On the other hand, if DEN loses to PHI and the Ravens win out (games against CHI, PIT, and OAK), we could drop from 5th seed to 6th seed. In the end, I think Denver gets the 5th seed, regardless of the PHI game. But winning that game (along with the must-win "easy" games of OAK and KC) may prove to be critical based on what SD and BAL do.

Here's a major thought - there are four teams ahead of Denver in the playoff seedings at this point, and Denver has beaten three of them (SD, CIN, and NE). We are good enough to go far this year. We also lost to two of those teams (SD and IND). I don't think we're likely to win or even make a SB appearance. In fact, it is hard to beat any team twice (the losing team has more film that benefits them), so I think a deep playoff run is difficult.

But I wanted improvement this year, and a playoff appearance is ahead of where I thought we would be. Coach McDaniels gets an A+ for his first year.

Last year, it would have been silly to talk about playoffs this early (remember the three game losing skid?), but a new coach and a new team attitude has me believing that we will make the playoffs this year. I'm not even concerned about how far we get after that. Denver has already exceeded my expectations, and everything now is icing on the cake.

And now, for a parting shot...

I want to thank the Colts fans who visited us last week. They were friendly, smart, and active. I congratulate them on their fine victory, and for having class at our site. Well, almost all of them.

I enjoyed the following comment under my story last week...

Which is the bigger overstatement?

"Broncs have the best secondary ever assembled on one team"

OR

"Colts are facing an incredible pass rush"

Neither the secondary or the pass rush are the best in the league this year, let alone legendary. Let’s watch the game and decide which of these statements is the most absurd.

by Check Your Facts

I didn't see the comment until today. Here was my answer some moments ago...

Check YOUR facts sir.

Is it just me, or is Elvis Dumervil leading the League in sacks right now? Bailey and Dawkins not legendary players with HOF in their futures? Are you kidding me?

Denver wasn’t going to win this game (as I wrote), but your comment is very perplexing. As it turns out, we intercepted Manning three times, and hurried him through out the game.

Check your facts indeed. lol

by Steve Nichols

It is now clear which comment was most absurd. Funny, but it wasn't either of mine.

: )

Poll

Jamarcus Russell, QB of the Oakland Raiders....

MHR Chalk Talk - Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (2009)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 12:52:50 -0000

This is it; the big game. Indianapolis and Denver are both likely to go to the playoffs, and this game is the toughest game on the Denver schedule. IND is undefeated, has the best QB in the League, and a defense that hasn't missed a beat even when three of four starting defensive backs went down to injury earlier this season. The Colts feature an amazing one-two punch with their pass-rushing ends. They have an offensive line that protects their QB very well. In short, the Colts are a team to be respected for their well-earned accomplishments.

So there is only one question on the minds of Denver fans this week - "Can the Broncos beat Indianapolis this week?" My answer is "Yes". Let's face it, IND is a great team and they are (in my opinion) Super Bowl-bound. However, while a betting man ought to go with the Colts this weekend, the Broncos are better situated to hand the Colts an upset than most analysts might think. Denver is built to win this match-up in terms of system match-ups, and we'll explore the possibilities below the fold...

Here are the reasons that Denver can pull of the upset this weekend:

1. The Colts are facing the best secondary ever assembled on one team

Denver features a legendary secondary. Champ Bailey is a future Hall of Famer, and has shown this year that he is still one of the elite cornerbacks in the League. Most folks will look quickly at how many interceptions a CB has to measure worth, but this can be deceiving. Not many QBs throw towards Champ because of fear of INTs. While Champ hasn't racked up INTs this year, he has broken up enough pass plays to make the receivers he covers worthless (and he's faced many of the best this year). Champ can turn on a dime, has blazing speed, is a sure tackler (he gets several RB tackles in many of his games), and has a wealth of experience and study skills to fall back on.

(Photo courtesy thestate.com)

"Nothing escapes a black hole, not light or even time", Einstein.

At free safety, Brian Dawkins (another future Hall of Famer) is deadly to opposing offenses. He has the speed and intelligence to cover the deep field for passes while STILL reading and reacting quickly enough to meet opposing RBs near scrimmage. He is one of the hardest hitting players in the game, and seems to be in on every play. As a team leader, he ensures that the rest of the defense is playing up to his non-stop standard of play.

Andre' Goodman has four INTs so far this year, and has shown that he can take the heat when opposing QBs refuse to throw towards Bailey. He has been a sure tackler, and a solid addition to the defense. Likewise, Renaldo Hill (playing at strong safety with two INTs) has proven that there is no weak link on a start studded secondary. He has shown the ability to cover deep zones as well as cover runs in shorter coverages.

Rookie David Bruton, a back-up safety, was likely taken in the draft to serve as a powerful special teams coverage player and fills the role nicely. However, there are some injury questions for him going into Sunday's game.

So is the secondary the reason for Denver fans to put their hopes in an upset? Surprisingly, I would say no. I don't think any team is going to have much luck disguising coverages against Peyton Manning. In my mind, Peyton Manning is the best QB in the NFL, but not because of his physical skills. Peyton Manning has an uncanny skill. He is able (due to incredible intelligence) to keep track in his mind of every route his players are running simultaneously, and to do this under pressure. This includes what his receivers will switch to on broken plays. Manning can then throw the ball without looking, and nail his target with precision. Manning has the physical tools that other excellent pocket passers have, but his mind is what sets him apart. Combine Manning's talent with timed passing patterns, and Manning becomes the closest human possibility to playing with a QB that can win blindfolded.

Coach's note - The way for a secondary to beat a timed passing game is to jam receivers. This throws off the timing patterns, and forces the QB to re-evaluate his options.

Even an elite secondary like the Broncos will leave an opportunity at some point during each play. The longer a play goes on, the more chances a receiver has for separation. And of course, there are always the quick hooks and curls that pick up short yards in bunches.

So while the secondary is a key component, it isn't the prime way to beat Manning. The pass rush is.

2. The Colts are facing an incredible pass rush

If The Colts are to be stopped, the pass rush will be the reason. The rare team that limits Manning and his high powered passing game is the team that gets to Manning. Sacks are great, but not required. If Manning is harassed, he can't make ideal throws. No quarterback wants to throw before a play is fully developed. And while there are QBs known for being good at passing while running, no QB prefers to do so. Manning is a big QB, and can absorb some punishment and make some decent moves. But he is not considered a mobile QB, and his value to his team dictates that he shouldn't be taking any hits if he is tempted to move downfield.

Denver's 3-4 (which looks like and is run like a 5-2) is truly in line with the "Amoeba Philosophy" that Coach McDaniels brought with him from New England. Denver not only has seven players up front who are very talented, but they are capable of rotating in about five other players on a regular basis without a drop in talent. Several of these players make plays at the "micro" level that don't garner recognition, but create opportunities for other players. This spreads the talent out, and keeps several players from getting recognition they deserve. But this is fine, because "winning", not individual recognition, is how this front seven works. Despite this philosophy, one player stands out.

(Photo courtesy of Yahoo News)

"Another one bites the dust", Queen

Elvis Dumervil is the NFL's leading sack master. At 15 sacks during the first 12 games, the odds show that "Doom" will get a little over a sack every game. That's an excellent enough stat, but it becomes dizzying when one considers the sheer quantity of hurry-ups that Doom gets that don't even turn into sacks. And hurry-ups, not sacks, are what defensive coordinators dream of.

Coach's note - Denver loves to move Dumervil around between the two OLB/DE positions. He's hard enough to stop as is, but his switches add one more crucial delay to the QB's protection coverage calls. Teams HAVE to account for where he is.

Fans love sacks, as do defensive players. Fans love sacks because they lead to a loss of yards and a down (not to mention rattling the opposing QB). Players strive for them because a sack is the end result of a goal - to get to the QB. But to a defensive coordinator, sacks are wonderful but not the ideal. Hurry-ups cause one of several possibilities. They lead to hurried decisions on the part of the QB, thus increasing the potential for incomplete passes or interceptions. A sack is a wonderful thing, but continuous pressure is what a DC is really after.

Here's an analogy. A race dog (probably a greyhound) really wants to catch the robotic rabbit on a rail. If he catches it, that's great (which of course, never really happens). I'm sure that spectators would like this result too. But the purpose of the rabbit, and the real goal for the betters, is for the dog to run fast enough to win the race.

So a sack or two would be loads of fun. But if Denver wants to beat INDY, the real key to the game (above all others) is for Denver's front seven to find ways to hurry Manning on a regular basis.

3. Denver's style of offense slows down the tempo, and keeps the Colt's strength off the field

Denver does two things very well. First, the play a low risk passing game that dinks and dunks the ball down the field. It isn't a spectacular thing to watch, but it takes time of possession away from the other team. It is also an effective way to counter defenses that use a lot of zones (like INDY).

(Photo Courtesy of Yahoo)

"There's a new sheriff in town" Eddie Murphy

from the movie "48 Hours"

The other thing that Denver does is run the ball very well. Here again, we take time off the clock and keep the ball from Manning. While Denver only "only" ranks ninth in rushing, they have been coming on strong lately. Knowshon Moreno is leading rookies with rushing yards (despite splitting carries with Correll Buckhalter), while Buckhalter holds an amazing 5.4 yards per carry average. In theory, one could give Buckhalter the ball and do nothing else while gaining first downs every other play.

IND is a high tempo team. They love shootouts, and win games without success in running (they are 32nd in rushing yards).

Denver has stars all over the offense, including four excellent receivers, three excellent TEs, and an amazing offensive line. Denver's only offensive concern might be the loss to Injured Reserve of RT Ryan Harris, though Denver is confident that the role can be filled well.

Keys to the Game

(image courtesy of Flickr.com)

Denver Broncos -

Pressure Manning. This is the ONLY way to stop the Colts offense, based on years of results. If you can't pressure Manning, you can't win the game. Period.
If Denver can run the ball consistently well, the battle is half over. Manning has to be hurried to stop his advances, but keeping him off the field is the next step.
Don't leave points on the field. IND is going to score points, no matter how you slice it. Denver cannot afford to punt or turn the ball over much. And while I'm a conservative type (I'm almost always fine with field goals when others are screaming for touchdowns), we need more TDs than FGs in this game.

Indianapolis Colts -

This game is the toughest game left on the schedule. Don't take it for granted. Forget about going undefeated, and forget about the playoffs being a lock. Denver is better that their record suggests, and they are getting better. The Steelers just learned a hard lesson about trying to beat an opponent in cruise control.
The Colts have two outstanding DEs. Kyle Orton is a solid QB, but can make mistakes under pressure. The DEs can take away the passing game and allow the rest of the team to handle the run.
Watch out for Eddie Royal on special teams. He can shut down the home crowd and give Denver and easy seven points without Orton and Buckhalter even touching the field.

You don't take a team that is undefeated after 12 games and pick against them. You just don't. But looking at the type of game that each team plays, this game isn't in the bank for the Colts by a long shot. Indianapolis should win this game at home behind Peyton Manning, and if you had to bet, that's where the money goes. But then again, I wouldn't bet on this game. The smart money says to take your money elsewhere.

MHR Chalk Talk - The Broncos at the Chiefs in '09

Steve Nichols — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 14:49:12 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

The Denver Broncos get their mojo back. Yeah Baby yeah! (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

Browse more photos »

After getting off to a great 6-0 start, the Broncos lost their mojo and dropped 4 games, including a costly game to rival San Diego. On Thanksgiving night, the Broncos did exactly what they needed to do; not only to beat the New York Giants, but to set the tone for how to play the season out.

I'd like to think the Broncos took a page from MHR Chalk Talk last week, and made a decision to play more physical ball while letting the precision wait a little longer. I'm certain that Coach McDaniels has better things to do than to listen to advice from folks outside of his coaching circle, but he did place an emphaisis on more physical ball for the Giants game. It not only worked, but it worked out better than our game plans for the first 6 victories. Why? Because we played a dominating style of football instead of a finesse style, and it worked to a tee.

There's nothing wrong with finesse. But a team needs time to learn a new system before it can take the step to execute more complex plays. Right now, Denver needs to execute the basics better than the bad guys, and punch other teams in the gut. That is just what Denver did, and what they need to do moving forward.

Let's look at the keys to the game for last week.

First, I wrote that the OL needed to protect Kyle Orton. The Giants have always been a team that want to shut down the passing game with pressure from the front more than relying on elite coverage from defensive backs. Not only did the OL did a good job of keeping Orton clean, they opened up running lanes for the Denver offense.

The second key for Denver was to run the ball more, and to do so effectively. A good running game takes pressure of the QB, controls the clock, and cuts down on turnovers. It is the prime key for Denver for the rest of the season. When Denver runs the ball well, they win games. When opponents can make Denver one dimensional, Denver will struggle. Denver did this.

Last, Denver needed a mistake free game. Denver had to settle for two FGs instead of TDs on their first two drives because of penalties, and this led to a now infamous, profanity laden conference on the sidelines. But two things happened at that point. First, Denver got the focus they needed. Second, Denver was playing "domineering" football to such an extent that they left 8 points on the field in those two drives and it didn't matter. Domineering football is just what this team needs.

For the Giants, all they really had to do to win this game was to win in the trenches. Denver's offensive and defensive lines pushed the Giants all over the field. Denver took that key away right away.

Next, the Giants needed to keep Denver from the ealry lead. But from the start of the game, it was clear that Denver wasn't going to settle for a war of field position and winning a close game. Denver took the early lead.

Finally, I wrote that the Giants needed to run the ball on Denver for match-up reasons. Denver's run defense was spectacular. Denver made it look as if the Giants could do nothing right.

My point is that Denver didn't win this game with precision execution of flashy sreen plays, nor with a great amount of trickery on the defense. Denver out executed opponents by being more physical. We didn't play "keep the game close" careful football, we played to dominate, intimidate, and crush. Our guys had it in them, and they proved it. Both our players and our head coach are emotional beings, and sometimes it is ok to play a little more with emotional intensity than cold Xs and Os.

The Chiefs

Now what about the Chiefs? This is a game Denver should dominate. The Chiefs are having a rough season so far in almost any measurement. First, the bad news for the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are 26th in scoring, 30th in yards, 22nd in rushing, and 26th in passing. The number one reason (in my opinion) for the poor offensive perfomance of this team is the offensive line. Gone are the stars of yesteryear's Chiefs OL. The OL can't protect QB Matt Cassel, and they allow him to be sacked on a regular basis. in fact, they botched two snaps to the QB in their last game, missing the QB in the shotgun formation (where the QB is further back from the line).

On defense, things aren't any better. KC is 28th in points allowed, 30th in yards allowed, 27th in stopping the run, and 30th in stopping the pass.

In other words, KC is in the bottom 10 teams in every vital stat, and in the bottom seven teams in 7 out of those 8 stats. Overall, the Chiefs are ranked 26th in the League based on wins and tie-break.

Do the Chiefs have any good news going into this game? They do, and if you don't believe me, you can drop the ball like the Pittsburgh Steelers did in their loss to the Chiefs two games ago.

First, the Chiefs have a terrific RB in Jamaal Charles. He has shown unreal speed, and is a definate threat when he gets to the edges. Denver could challenge the edges with a traditional 3-4 defense, but in the 5-2 look the OLB/DEs are more likely to be plugging gaps than containing the outside. Expect Denver to respect Jammal by either zoning an OLB wide or placing a LB in man coverage. Both safeties will be watching for wide runs as well.

Jamaal is averaging over 5 yards a carry (as he did last year), and now that he is the starter (with Larry Johnson booted from the team), the Chief's may start buidling an offense around him down the road. Did I mention that Jamaal also has great hands and can catch what is thrown his way? Jamaal 's weakspot (according to many) is that he may be fumble prone. I don't really know if this is fair. At 22 years of age, Jamaal has fumbled the ball twice this year (at key moments), but has also touched the ball 78 times rushing and 26 times receiving. He is only in his second year too. I don't think protecting the ball is as bad as the media has made the issue out to be.

The other bright spot for the offense is Chris Chambers at WR. Cassel may not get protection from his line, and his weapons may not have a lot of depth, but Chris Chambers is his number one target and Chambers seems to have a good chemistry with the QB. These are the two players I respect the most on the Chiefs offense, and I fully expect that Denver will work on countering these two.

And then there is the "curse". Denver can't seem to win in KC in December. I'm not a superstitous guy, but the curse shouldn't be a factor for some very logical reasons. First, the two teams aren't the same teams they were in past years. In fact, not even last year. Both teams feature new head coaches, new offensive and defensive coordinators, new managers, and new QBs. In fact, looking over the Chiefs roster, I was surprised by how many names were different from just last year.

If Denver is going to lose this game, it will be because they take it for granted. KC is fully capable of keeping a game close, then gong for the win at the end. Denver needs to avoid falling into the trap that Pittsburgh did, and needs to dominate from the start.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Denver needs to guard against Jamaal Charles. Yes, he can average over 5 yards a carry. Yes, he can catch out of the backfield. And yes, he is a return threat in special teams. He can also go down field for deeps passes (he beat Cromartie for a deep pass last week). But he is light at 5-11, 199 LBs. With the other RBs on the team limited or out of practice, Jamaal may take a lot of hits. Denver needs to contain Jamaal, and they need to hit him any chance that they get.
Another way to deal with Jamaal is to get an early lead and force the Chiefs to throw. I'll take Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman over Chris Chambers anyday.
Run the ball. This takes the Chiefs crowd out of the game and keeps Jamaal Charles off the field. The Chiefs don't have a fast LB corps, so sprinkling in some screens and shovel passes to the edges may spread the defense wide to allow later shots at the interior.

Kansas City

Do whatever it takes to protect your QB. Short, quick passes would be good (and would negate the big plays that Denver's secondary can make). Running the ball with Jammal would be good too. The depth at WR can't match the Denver depth at CB, so keep formations down to 1 or 2 receivers and add protection with TEs and a FB.
While Jamaal needs to be a factor, try rotating the runs. Clearly, I think this kid is the weapon that KC needs, but if he is overused, he's going to get hurt. If he is kept fresh, he may get enough big plays to keep the game close.
Come into the game fired up, and fire up the fans. I read an article this week (at NFL.com) that mentioned that KC hasn't been playing with a lot of fire. This happened to Denver, and Brian Dawkins hosted a players-only meeting to straighten things out. It worked. But the fans need to be fired up too. Denver makes mistakes and gets penalties, and isn't fully on the same page on offense at times. Loud crowd noise at the right moment should help the KC defense. Players ought to encourage the fans to get loud, and should do a little chest thumping when a play goes well for KC. Arrowhead hasn't been kind to Denver, and the fans in KC should keep it that way.

Conclusion

Before the season, I wrote that I expected the Raiders to stay in the basement, the Chiefs and Brancos to improve slightly, and the Chargers to lose a little luster. The Raiders are the same team that they have been for years, unable to approach even .500, while the Chargers remain contenders, but don't stand out in the Conference.

However, while the Broncos have improved from last year, the Chiefs are having a hard time keeping up. In fact, they are only one spot ahead of the Raiders in the League rankings. Denver had at least as many changes as the Chiefs did, so what is the problem?

I agree with our friends at Arrowhead Pride. Too many good players are gone (including a key defensive lineman, two great offensive linemen, and what should be a future HOF TE), and too few good players have stepped in. Age remains an issue as well. The team needs an injection of youth, and a long term, off-season game plan to start building up. The team needs a combination of good FA moves or trades (getting Chambers from SD was a good move in my opinion), as well as using their position in the draft to get more players that can contribute over time.

I mean no disrespect to the Chiefs fans when I write that I have a hard time seeing the Broncos dropping this game. However, Denver seems to get surprised year after year in KC, so KC has some hope.

My hope is that Denver doesn't just win this game, but makes another statement like they did last week against the Giants. Denver must win the "easy" games against KC and Oak (2 against KC), and a win against PHI would go a long ways. INDY still looks like a bridge too far. We also need to pull for all of SD's opponents from here on out.

A loss on Sunday would put a serious crimp in the Broncos playoff hopes (Denver is top wildcard at this point). A win keeps a division playoff spot in sight. Every game from here on out is a big game. I think Denver can measure up.

~~~

(By the way, for those attending the game: There used to be a great place to eat called Union Station in KC. It was the sight of a major gangland massacre back in days of Machine Gun Kelly, Frank Nitti and Baby Face Nelson. If the place is still there, they used to have a seafood buffet that included everything from whole lobster to smoked eel, oysters, and lox. Not far away was a Japanese place called The Hibachi. If they are still there, you can't go wrong with either one. Not far from the stadium, in Independence, is a place called Stephenson's. Presidents have eaten there with good reason, and it is worth a visit as well. You used to get free samples of apple cider there, and the food is awesome. Perhaps a KC fan can chime in to tell us if those places are still around).

Poll

Denver will....

...end with a better regular season record than SD this year.

219 votes

...end with the same regular season record as SD this year.

448 votes

...end with a worse regular season record than SD this year.

278 votes

I'm a Denver hating troll who just came by to wreck your poll.

22 votes

967 votes | Poll has closed

Thanksgiving MHR Chalk Talk Edition '09 - NY Giants at Denver Broncos

Steve Nichols — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:27:32 -0000

Football is important to me. I love the game, and it took up a lot of my time when I was a younger man. I loved teaching so much that I was one of the first faculty to arrive at our building each day and one of the last to leave. When I started coaching, I arrived at work about an hour before the kids arrived and left about an hour after practice.

It was one of those jobs (teaching and coaching; I was paid to do both) that one loves enough to look forward to in the morning and to miss on the way home. Then I got a family, and I had the best of both worlds (home and work).

But football isn't everything. It isn't even close. Here are the things I am thankful for today: My God (for everything), our military men and women (who protect everything I hold dear), my country (which allows me to enjoy the fruits of my labor), my family (from where my happiness comes from), my friends (who are like my family, and I include my MHR friends and family here), and my employer (I'm grateful to have a job during these tough economic times, and I'm grateful for each of my co-workers). I just wanted to get that out there.

But you aren't here to hear all of that. You want to know what has happened to our Broncos, and what we have (if anything) to look forward to. I'll give it a stab.

A Military Analogy

Many years ago, while studying foreign policy and military affairs for my grad work, I came across an interesting comparison of Soviet versus American military philosophy during the cold war. I think it is useful for our discussion of the Broncos today.

The US and the NATO allies believed that "quality" was important. We built the F-15 air superiority fighter, confident that a team of 2 such planes could shoot down dozens of opponents before being shot down. We built the M-16 Rifle, confident in the accuracy that such a weapon provided. We built aircraft carriers that contained more war birds than the entire air forces of most countries.

Our weapons systems were the best in the world. Expensive, accurate, precision machines.

Not so with the Soviets. They were fine with the quality gap. Their rationale was, "Fine. Your tank can destroy 40 of ours, but we outnumber you 200 to 1." And to some extent this was true. We had quality, they had quantity. But the differences were even deeper than that.

Take the M-16 rifle. It is very accurate, despite being mass produced. It has many features not found on most assault rifles. But the Soviet AK-47 is a very different weapon on purpose. The M-16 requires a lot of cleaning and maintenance. Drop it in mud or water, and you need to clean it right away (or even after a day on the range). Not so with the AK-47. What it gives up in precision it makes up for in endurance. The small parts are loosely fitted, so dirt, mud, sand and carbon don't slow it down. It can go for weeks or even months without proper cleaning.

Same with the fighter jets. Before an F-15 taxies out to take off, a crew of airmen have to search the runway for everything from rocks to dropped gear to prevent anything from getting sucked into the engines. The F-15 is a precision plane, and deadly to opponents. But it requires hours of maintenance, and clean, cleared runways. Not the Soviet Mig-25. It can land or take off in the dirt, and the on-board computers and sensors aren't built to win air engagements, but to function with little to no care in any environment.

Our carrier task forces can take and hold most countries in the world in land, sea, and even ground engagements. They are deadly examples of "force projection". What's the drawback? Back then, it was lone Soviet bombers with extreme long range air-to-sea missiles. Most of these missiles would get shot down (as would the bombers), but the catch is this: it only takes one missile to destroy the heart of a carrier task force. In other words, the fox loves to have all of our eggs in one basket.

So which was better? We had a Porsche, they had a muscle car (with a hemi). We could win the races, they could win if the fight was a demolition derby. NATO strategy was to slow down a Warsaw Pact invasion long enough for the "quality" of NATO firepower to take the toll on Warsaw Pact forces (known as attrition warfare). As a good American (and a veteran), I think the good guys had it right. It isn't about the numbers, it is about the quality. So, what does this have to do with the Denver Broncos?

The Broncos - A Lot of Quality, but Too Reliant on Precision

Denver has some great, even legendary names on both sides of the ball. Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins are future HOFers. Elvis Dumervil is one of the best blitzing DE/OLBs in the NFL today. Brandon Marshall is a top ten receiver, and Offensive Tackles Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris are amazing. Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler are terrific TEs, and there are many more players I haven't even mentioned. This is a team full of talent. This is a team full of quality.

In my estimation, the problem is "precision". Let me expalin.

Our own John Bena (MHR Chief Editor and Founder) has noticed that this team has little room for error. We were terrible in the pre-season, and our first six wins were by close margins. As I have written, we are "a team that finds ways to win, but doesn't dominate". We are a team built on precision, the idea that every part has to function just right for the "whole" to prevail. Coach McDaniels calls it "Every guy must DO HIS JOB". It worked great at first. For the first six games, our complex screens were outgunning defenses, and we moved the ball down the field. One mistake, a lost third-down conversion or an interception, and the whole thing would have come apart. Denver is not a shootout team, and EVERYTHING must go right for the team to succeed.

But Denver did it right. Orton didn't throw INTs, and the team made long trips down the field to score. In one game (against SD), every player worked together to help Eddie Royal score two returns for TDs (a punt and a kick). Precision ruled the day. And then we dropped our M-16s in the mud.

With our complex schemes, we rely on everything to go "just right". If Orton is injured, we get a backup QB. If he doesn't meet the "Orton's No INTs" standard, the team is dead in the water. If the team gets a terrible ratio of penalties proportionate to the other team (read Ted Bartlett's excellent treatment of the SD game in his latest ST&NO article), you just can't overcome that. If our punter can't win the field position battle for us, we're in tough waters already. Here's the problem:

We are a team that is built to keep games close, and to win those games. We rely on a dominant defense, and a mistake-free offense that can keep moving the ball forward. On defense, we have to keep scores low since our offense won't be putting up big numbers. On offense, we have to rely on intricate plays with no mistakes as we move the ball down the field yard by yard.

This worked for 6 weeks, even against some of the better teams in the League. We ran our program the way it is supposed to be run, and we caught a lot of good teams off guard. Then we ran into two physical defenses from the top 2 AFC teams of 2008, who beat the snot out of our precision ballet. Then we lost our starting QB for the second half of the WAS game. By the time we faced our fourth loss, we were playing our injured starter (after the backup played so badly we had to go back to Kyle Orton). Inexplicably, we didn't rely upon our attacking defense for the SD game, and seemed to hold back (again, see Ted's great article).

Is our coach bad? Not at all. He is using the players he has in only his first year. Consider that he "inherited" a lot of players, and a dysfunctional defense. He has changed the entire system, and only had one draft to bring in his own guys. He also had to deal with losing the previous QB (who demanded a trade before the coach was even hired). Given the new systems on both sides of the ball, and given that he hasn't yet had the years to assemble his own depth chart, he has done an amazing job. I remain in his corner.

We have what John Bena expected us to have after his observations from training camp. I also think we have what I expected. This is a team that has improved from last year, but is still improving. It is NOT a SB caliber team, nor even a deep playoff team. It is a team that would be lucky to make the playoffs, and wouldn't go far once it got there. But more importantly, it is a team that is on the right path. It is a team that has corrected most of the defensive problems of the last several years, and has held its own on offense, even with a new QB. Give this coach another year or two, and I think the improvements will continue.

We were spoiled by 6 quick wins, and I think many fans were blindsided. Again, let me reference Ted Bartlett. Ted writes that he has become a lot less emotional, and much more analytical. Ted mirrors my own way of looking at the Broncos. Some fans were hateful and spiteful, and all-too quick to lash out out our new coach and QB. 6 quick wins made those bandwagoners look foolish. On the other side of the fence, some fans (after a quick 6-0 start) were talking "13-3" and "Super Bowl". That fell apart pretty quick, didn't it?

Let's not get sucked in by emotion. Let's be thankful that this team has beaten four good teams (NE, CIN, DAL, SD) and two not-so-good teams (CLE and OAK), while losing to three good teams (BAL, PIT, SD) and one poor one (WAS). If, as my friend Tim Lynch has pointed out, we had a 6-4 record but NOT after 6 in a row, many of us would have been happy right now. I agree.

For me, my goal was an 8-8 season, but improved play (especially by the defense). So far, I feel we have done well. I won't let a string of 6 victories turn me into a Kool-Aid drinker, but I sure as heck won't let a 4-game slide turn me into a troll either. We're not a great team and we're not a terrible team. We're in the middle (better off than many teams) with new people in place to effect an improvement. Let's continue to watch our team and see what happens.

In the meantime, as our team grows together and the coach is able to bring in more of his style of players through draft and FA, expect to see a system that is flexible and not as reliant on perfect working parts. As time goes on, I expect to see a more physical team (already starting on the defensive side; not so much with our agile but smaller OL). I also expect to see a wider array of passing plays, many of which will be simpler. Denver has a lot of complex passing plays, but those will become even more effective as the playbook gets bigger, even if the newer plays are simple ones. Remember, this is only Orton's first year in this playbook. Given that, he's doing pretty well.

None of this means that precision is a bad thing. Certainly none of this means that each player shouldn't "do his job". What is DOES mean is that, as the team grows in the current system and gets better at it, the whole of the system will make up for the inevitable times that individual pieces aren't functioning ideally. Right now we aren't there yet. And that's okay.

The NY Giants Game

This is a game many of us penciled in as a potential loss at the start of the season. The Giants won the SB a couple of years ago, and have been a good team. Like Denver, they seem to have had some terrible problems in recent games. Denver started 6-0 then lost four. NY started 5-0 then lost 4. They won their last game (against ATL) in OT.

With both teams at 6-4 (and much of the scheduled opponents in common), here is how the teams match up in different categories (advantage in italics)

DENVER OFFENSE (stat and rank) NEW YORK (Gs) DEFENSE (stat and rank)

Offensive points - 17 (25th) Points allowed - 23.5 (24th)

Yards avg - 323 (22nd) Yards allowed - 282.2 (2nd)

Rushing yards - 112.4 (16th) Rushing yards allowed - 104.8 (11th)

Passing yards - 210.6 (19th) Passing yards allowed - 177.4 (2nd)

NEW YORK (Gs) OFFENSE DENVER DEFENSE

Offensive points - 26.6 (6th) Points allowed - 18.3 (7th)

Yards - 385.5 (4th) Yards allowed - 297.8 (7th)

Rushing yards - 133.8 (7th) Rushing yards allowed - 115.3 (18th)

Passing yards - 251.7 (8th) Passing yards allowed - 182.5 (3rd)

Denver's (only) real advantage seems to be stopping the NY passing game. In the prime stats (points on the board), Denver's offense and Denver's defense only trail their counterparts in NY by one ranking point. Still, the numbers don't look good.

The Giants are top ten in all eight stats, with the exception of rushing yards allowed (11th) and points defensed (24th). Denver, on the other hand, is in the bottom half of the League in all four offensive categories. On defense, the Broncos are top ten in 3 areas, but rank lower half in a fourth.

Is there a light at the end of this tunnel? There are some injury issues for the Giants at RB, and if they have problems running the ball then the Denver defense may have an easier time in the pass defense match-up. Continue to watch MHR for injury updates for both teams.

If Ryan Harris can return at RT, this may increase the Broncos' potential to what it was before he went down. Dawkins is a key playmaker on the defense, so his presence is important.

The Giants are a physical team. They like to control the trenches with physical play, and this can cause problems for the Broncos. Here is what I think both teams need to do to win this game:

Denver's Keys -

If the OL can give Orton time, I think he can do great things in the air. The Giants are good at stopping passes, but I think they do this more with their DL than their DBs. BAL and PIT got pressure on Orton, and Orton missed time against WAS and SD. Give Orton the protection he needs to do his thing.
Find a running game. I don't care how they do it. If Denver continues to slip in the running game, nothing will go right this season. In every game from here on out, Denver needs to try and push the run.
Mistake-free ball. Until Denver is good enough to dominate opponents, they can't afford turnovers or penalties. Play precision ball until you are good enough to play domineering ball.

NYG's Keys -

Win in the trenches. If you can out-muscle Denver's OL and DL, everything else will take care of itself. No number of star players for Denver can make up for a loss at scrimmage.
Don't let Denver get an early lead. Denver's confidence may be in jeopardy. Early success by the Broncos will allow them to play good football. However, if you strike early, you might convince the players that this is more of a "4 loss" team than a "6 win" team. Just as importantly, this year's fans are fickle. Start beating Denver early, and you'll have the crowd booing and leaving early. This makes audibles easier for the visiting team.
Run the ball. Denver's pass defense is better than the run defense. Recently, the run defense has been in decline. Pound the ball up the gut, and you don't allow star players like Bailey, Dawkins, and Dumervil to be such factors.

I hate to say it, but a quick look at each team would seem to make me lean towards the Giants. However, the Giants aren't as good as they have been, and Denver is better than they once were (I'm looking at the teams season by season, not just each week). Both teams "are what they are", which is to say "6-4". So either team can get this one.

A loss would pull either team closer to an even mark for the year, while a win would put them closer to winning 2/3 of their games. Both teams are in 2nd place in their divisions, and need wins to stay in the playoff hunt.

~~~

A brief note. I have been hard on some of Denver's fans this year. I can't stand that many of our fans were bigger "Cutler" fans or "Shanahan" fans than "Denver Broncos" fans. I also couldn't understand the idea of being against our new coach or QB, even though those two guys are united in trying to do what they can for our team. I still don't get those kinds of people.

But some fans "get it", and I love them for it. When Chris Simms came in and tried to be a starting QB this past game, I wasn't pleased by his effort. Chris has a wonderful story, and it would have been triumphant to have seen him come in and play 4 quarters of great football. Instead, Chris came in and fell flat. I remember watching him botch a play and sit on the ground, calling for a face-mask penalty and looking a little foolish. Chris may be a great guy, but I'm not excited by him as our backup QB.

However, when I saw Orton warming up on the sideline, I was filled with mixed emotions. The coach in me said, "No way do we risk our starting QB in this game! If he isn't ready enough to start, keep him off the field!" I still think Orton should have stayed out and rested. The risk was just too high. I wouldn't have had him dress out.

Still, Orton took the field. And the coach side of me gave way to the fan side (the emotional side). "HELL YEAH!" I thought. It was like Superman had arrived, and everything was going to be okay. Well, the game turned out badly, but there was a clear difference in QBs. Orton didn't have a run game to support him, was missing his key RT, and had a defense that wasn't up to its regular standards. Still, he came in with a noticable limp, and played without being mobile enough to properly plant and throw. He showed guts, and he gave the fans a moment of elation. He also wanted to get in the game and save his team, and that's what a leader does. I like this guy.

The fans wanted Orton, and they went wild when he took the field. That's the kind of fans I like. Smart move by the coach? I don't think so. Gutsy? Absolutely. But importantly, it showed the world where our real Denver fans stand - right behind our QB.

I hope those cheers on Sunday went a long way towards erasing the jeers of some fans during the pre-season. Orton is our QB until he isn't. That's the message the fans sent on Sunday, and I like it. A lot.

Poll

Denver -

A little better than last year

360 votes

About the same as last year

57 votes

A little worse than last year

27 votes

444 votes | Poll has closed

MHR Chalk Talk - Chargers at Broncos ('09)

Steve Nichols — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:38:49 -0000

Well, it turns out the Broncos are much better than many people thought, but not nearly as good as some had hoped for. After beating a group of pretty good teams (NE, SD, DAL, CIN) and two not-so-good teams (CLE, OAK), Denver lost to two pretty good teams (BAL, PIT) and lost to a not-so-good team (WAS).

All in all, the team is still 6-3, tops the AFC West, and has the tie break over SD. So far, so good. Now comes the bad news. SD is a team that is starting to surge, while Denver has dropped three straight. QB Kyle Orton is hurt and may not play. If Kyle can play, he may not be 100%. While Denver has home field, we have to bear in mind that SD has the "advantage of first loss", which is the concept in coaching that a team learns more from losing to an opponent than winning. In the NFL, it is hard to beat a team twice in one season.

Frankly, Denver has a tough battle in front of them this week, and I'm glad that the new format for the MHR staff picks won't force me to pick this game.

Still, I think the future overall looks bright. Really.

I was unable to watch the entire game against WAS because of my day job. I was able to catch a few things worth passing on:

First, I like that Denver challenged the Redskins deep. I saw both throws downfield that Orton made for long TDs. I've always said that Orton can throw long, he just isn't schemed that way. Did the WAS coverage break down and make mistakes? Absolutely. But that's not the point. The passes were long and on target. More so, the errors happened because the Redskins didn't respect the deep pass, and other teams may do the same.

Second, I've always been a fan of the officials, and always come to their defense. This week is no exception. I saw three terrible calls by the officials, but none changed the face of the game. I also believe that none of them were "purposeful", as some folks like to claim when they see a bad call. They were mistakes, and anyone could make them. So I continue to love the officials, and can't blame the game's outcome on them. However, the errors I saw were bad enough that I would imagine the League sent an acknowledgment to the Broncos earlier this week. Here's what I saw (on nearly three back-to-back plays).

First, Brandon Stokley catches a ball with both feet well over a foot in bounds. The catch is ruled out of bounds. Denver doesn't challenge, since it was third down and the catch was short of the marker. Any official could mess up this call, and I know I couldn't do a better job than these guys. No problem.

But then, Denver punts the ball and an opposing player knocks the punter to the ground. It seemed to me that the opposing player didn't even make an effort to slow down. Combining the 15-yard penalty with the inbounds catch that Stokley made previously, this would have given Denver a first down. Now I'm not going to begrudge the officials the first down for a couple of reasons. First, Denver could have challenged the reception, but didn't. Second, perhaps the official might have called it "running into the kicker" instead of "roughing the kicker", and the penalty wouldn't have made a difference. Still no problem. Except for one thing...

C'mon guys! How do you miss a guy flying into the punter and driving him into the ground? In Stokley's case, and in the case of Mitch Berger, neither player tried to be theatrical to get the call. A good referee ignores theatrics, and only pays attention to what his eyes tell him. Fine. But why wasn't the assigned official watching the punter (as he is supposed to do)? The only excuse I can think of is that the hit was so late after the punt that the official had shifted his focus downfield. While this is understandable, it just tends to show how inexcusable the offending player's action really was.

At this point, even the announcers were siding with Denver, having noted both calls. Had enough?

Soon after, the WAS QB fumbles the ball and Denver recovers. Nope. The official says something about forward progress and the whistle. The announcers look at the replay. The ball comes loose, the player hits the ground, Denver's player reaches for the ball, AND NOW the whistle blows. The play should have been reviewed, WAS reviewable after all, and Denver clearly got the ball back. Does it change the game? I don't believe so. Here again though, the announcers were stunned. So was I.

The officials have the toughest job on the field. Not only are they nitpicked by guys like me, but they have seconds to see the entire field and try to get a call right. They have to memorize a tricky rulebook, and they get second-guessed by every fan with replay and slow-motion abilities. So why am I bringing up these mistakes? I've written a million times that I respect these guys, and will never blame them for a lost game. Like the weather, illness, family tragedies, etc, the refs are a part of the game that players have to contend with. The difference is that the refs are trying to do the right thing. So here's a game with some pretty awful calls, and a game that we lost. Are you hearing me griping? I hope not. I don't fault the refs for this game, or any game. I'm thankful for the work that they put in, and the effort that they extend in trying to get as many calls right as possible. I tip my hat to them.

So what happened to Denver? For what it is worth, I think the loss of Orton in the second half was the critical factor. We still need to work on some issues, but Chris Simms wasn't able to carry the load on Sunday, and Orton was missed. Simms completed 3 out of 13 passes and had an INT.

The team IS working on those other issues, though. Orton was allowed to make a couple of deep throws, and they scored. I saw some more zone blocking than it seems we have been doing lately, and I hope this continues. Our team has beaten a lot of good teams this year, and really only lost to one team that I would have expected them to beat with confidence.

SD has won every game since the last Denver game, including wins against the Eagles and the Giants. When Denver played SD a few weeks ago, the star players of SD (including Antonio Gates, Darren Sproles and LaDainian Tomlinson) were inconsistent. They seem to have shaken off the fog, and are now playing in good form.

Without Orton, I have to give the edge to SD for this game. With Orton playing, but not at 100%, I have to give the edge to SD as well. If Orton is 100%, we have the home field. Now the concern goes to other injuries.

Ryan Harris at RT is still out. Brandon Marshall (WR) didn't practice on Wednesday, and Correll Buckhalter was limited. That is a lot to contend with. Is there a light at the end of the tunnel?

Here is a list of the notable (starter) SD injuries:

Jeromey Clary - RT
Ogemdi Nwagbuo - NT
Nick Hardwick - OC
Shaun Phillips - OLB - limited in practice.

Both teams have key injuries all over the field, but no injury is as difficult to adjust for as the QB. The edge goes to SD. If Orton can play, and can play at or very near 100%, Denver has a decent chance. Much of the playcalling for both teams may be focused on sizing up and taking advantage of the opposing injury replacements.

Denver's keys to the game -

If Orton is out, go full tilt with the run game. Even against a 3-4, the wide runs may be possible if Phillips is out.
Stop Sproles in the screen game. Consider assigning a LB to him.
If Simms struggles as badly as last week, consider giving Tom Brandstater a try.

San Diego's keys to the game -

Take away the run. If Orton is in, pressure him into running on that ankle. If not, take away the run and dare Simms to beat you.
If Marshall is out, DON'T double Royal. Denver has excellent depth at WR, as well as several TE receiver options. Instead, take away the deep game. Denver's throws are likely to be short passes, and the biggest danger is yards after the catch.
Watch out for Royal on returns. SD has an excellent chance to win this game on both sides of the ball, but can't afford to give up points or field position on STs.

If Denver loses this game, Denver is tied with SD in head-to-head games, and needs to win more games than SD from here on out. If Denver wins this game, they get to keep a lead on SD, AND win the head-to-head tie break. DEN has some tough games left, so there is little room for error.

This is the most important game of the season so far for the Broncos, so we'll see how well prepared they are.

Go Broncos!

Poll

Let's say: You're the coach. Denver has a critical game this week against the Chargers. Orton is healing from a tear in his ankle. Orton claims he can play on the ankle, but the ankle isn't fully healed. Do you...

Play him. Denver must keep the lead and the tie-break over SD to make the playoffs.

373 votes

Rest him. What good is Orton (or the team) if Orton re-injures the ankle, and misses several games as a result?

527 votes

900 votes | Poll has closed

MHR Chalk Talk - Some Thoughts Before The Broncos Face the Redskins at Midseason ('09)

Steve Nichols — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 21:14:01 -0000

I'd like to breakdown the upcoming game against the Redskins, but I want to put in my two cents worth on the state of the team as well.

Let's start with the fan base. That's right, let's start with the fans. Home field has several reasons for being advantageous, including elevation (Denver), facilities, rest, and N-O-I-S-E. I was disgusted at the number of Terrible Towels in the stands during the last game - a clear indication that many Denver fans had sold their tickets to the enemy. With a 6-1 team, does that really make sense? I won't buy the economy as an excuse, since the PIT fans buying the tickets are likely no better off than the Denver fans (and have to add in the cost of travel in many cases).

By the way, factoring in tie breaks, are you aware that the Denver Broncos are #2 in the AFC right now? We are ahead of CIN and NE (we beat those 6-2 teams head-to-head) and are ahead of PIT (they aren't first in their division and we have the better conference record). Before jumping off the bandwagon, realize that if the playoffs were today, we would have 2nd seed and a first-round bye.

Dr. Smith wrote in yesterday's front page article at MHR about the bandwagon fans. At the start of the season, they run away in fear because of a poor preseason, a new coach and a new QB. Then the team wins 6 straight, including games against current contenders DAL, NE, and CIN (to name a few). Those bandwagon fans come back, only to start crying when the team drops one or two games. Both of those games were against good teams (including the current champions), and one was on the road. Like our good doctor points out, those fans will want to hop back on when or if we start winning again.

That's not fandom. When I was in the army many decades ago, I didn't want a guy next to me that was going to quit if the going got tough. I wanted to be surrounded by men that would work together under the worst of circumstances. When I was coaching, I could understand losing, but not quitting. In law enforcement, I expect my peers to "have my back" just like I'll have theirs.

Does that mean I won't have complaints? Not at all. But there's a way to go about it. For example, I couldn't stand my 1st Sgt. in the army. Hated the guy. My comrades and I spent a lot of time griping about what a tyrant he was. But he was OUR 1st Sgt, and we didn't put up with someone from another unit bad mouthing him. I have issues with some of the things I see with our team this year, but I support our coach and our players 100%. I'll discuss some of those issues after the jump, but you'll notice the tone of respect I have for our team, even in disagreement.

Team Issues at Midseason

The Fans

The fans are the first issue. The team and the front office have done their jobs. Halfway through the season and this team is 6-2 with a lead in the AFC West. Fans should be proud at this point. I pegged our team as improved going into the season, but only with an 8-8 record. In my own view, the team has surpassed expectations.

But what kind of idiot fans do we have that boo our own QB during the preseason? Okay, let that one go. How about this: what kind of fans sell their tickets to the opposing fans for a Monday Night game after a 6-1 start? Did it affect the crowd noise? I don't know for sure. But it DID affect morale. At least one of our players commented on it after the game, wondering what had happened to our fans.

Do you believe in the Broncos, but only when they are winning? If you answered yes to that question, then you don't believe. I may have mixed grades on the team right now, but they are outperforming the fans by a mile. Frankly, I'm disgusted at some of the attitudes I hear and read about. Thankfully, MHR remains a positive place where the vast majority of fans love their team, whether they agree with everything or not. But those missing ticket holders, and many of the "fans" in some of the old media message boards just don't get it.

Well, here's where I stand. Denver is my team, whether they are 16-0 or 0-16. They always will be my team. It doesn't matter who the coach or the QB is, and the record doesn't matter either. This is my team. I hope that they are your team too, in good times and in bad.

The Running Game

We are 18th in the NFL right now in running the ball. That's not very good. In our last two games, we couldn't even total 100 yards altogether. Why is this?

Here's my respectful opinion. We have a great OL coach and a great RBs coach. We are a team known for 1,000-yard rushers, regardless of the player. And why? Because of the commitment to plugging in one-cut runners behind a zone-blocking scheme. At the start of the season, I was pleased to see a lot of zone blocking. As the season has worn on, I've seen less of it. In fact, we are trying to use more of a "power running" gap block scheme. I don't like this move.

Denver doesn't have to be a zone-block team forever. If a coach comes in and wants to change things, it is his prerogative. But for now, we still have offensive linemen that are built to zone block (smaller, athletic, agile) and not to gap block (we call standard blocking "gap blocking"). If we are going to transition, can't we at least keep the ZB while the current people are in place? I would rather keep the zone block, but if we don't, let's phase in the other scheme.

Before we jump all over the head coach, let's consider why he might be abandoning the ZB so quickly. There is a school of thought that the best way to make a scheme transition is by immersion (instead of phasing in the changes). The thinking is that the team suffers in the short term, but when the final personnel are in place, the change is quicker and more efficient.

This is a two-sided argument, and I respect both sides. In our case, I would rather make the switch slowly, since any new linemen are going to likely be used to gap blocking anyway, so there's no need for a major adjustment period. The counter is that we won't turn over the entire line in one season, anyway. So perhaps we are sacrificing a little bit this season for a stronger run in 2010.

For me, it is all really a moot point. I'm a big fan of the zone block, and would rather not change it at all, whether incrementally or suddenly.

The Passing Game

Kyle Orton has hovered in the low 100s and mid-90s with his QB rating this year. After two very rough games, his rating has fallen to 88.2.

As a team, we are ranked 16th in the League. Not very good. Let's face the facts, and see where we stand with Orton.

First, I like a lot about Kyle. He is a good leader, and the players respect him. He has a good personality, and shows a lot of maturity and poise when he addresses the public. With the exception of this last game, he has proven that he protects the ball. I've seen some very fast passes, including some where Kyle threaded the needle. And despite reports to the contrary, I've seen some good midfield and long passes.

The problem is that Kyle isn't tearing apart defenses, and this is either a product of Kyle's abilities or play calling. Let's look at how good Kyle is.

First, Kyle's QB rating last year was 79.6. This year, Kyle has been well above that mark, but is at least at 88.2 for now. That's improvement. Second, Kyle was sacked behind a poor Bears' O-Line 27 times last year. At the halfway mark, Kyle has already taken 13 sacks in Denver. Kyle's completion percentage was 58.5 last year, and this year it is 63.2. Kyle is halfway to his TD total last year (9 this year, 18 last year). He is well behind being on track for INTs (12 last year, only 4 so far this year). My point is that Orton is young (only 27 tomorrow) and continues to improve. That's what I like to see.

Kyle is improving. He's better than he was last year. But is he better than what we had last year?

Let's take a look:

RTG TD INT YDS comp% wins

Orton 88.2 9 4 1,838 63.2 6

Cutler 83.8 14 12 2,046 63.6 4

Here is how I see these numbers. First, the rating takes everything into account (TDs, INTs, etc). Orton wins here. Then I look at completion percentage, which is roughly even. In my mind, the higher win rate that Orton has is because of less turnovers. Denver has won some tight games, and the lack of INTs made the difference. Jay Cutler will win some games, but he will lose some games, too.

Yards (as we learned last year) don't mean a lot if the team can't score. Cutler put up a very impressive 369 yards against the Cardinals, only to fall short 41-21.

But where we have regressed is in yards and TDs. This needs to change. But how? We can't change the players we have (this year), but we can change how they are used. Let me explain.

Take Tony Scheffler. The "Patriot Way" is not a system that favors throwing to TEs. That's fine. There are advantages and disadvatages to every system, and NE has had their share of success. However, perhaps our coaches should consider a few things, starting with Scheffler.

When we got him the ball against SD, Tony had 6 receptions for over 100 yards and a TD. One of those receptions was for over 50 yards. Against PIT, he got the ball only one time, for only 6 yards. This would be understandable if we feared the coverage by Troy Polumalu (PIT SS), but then the deep field could have been cleared for Marshall and Royal, right?

I wrote about this last week, too. Eddie Royal is the kind of guy who is dangerous when he catches the ball in mid-stride. If he is full speed with the ball, he is hard to catch and very agile. But we throw a lot of short routes to him, few of which play to his strengths. We can play hitches, posts, and curls all day long, and Eddie will catch them and take the tackle. But a slant would play more to his natural abilities.

And then there's Brandon Marshall. He's a big guy, and the short stuff we throw to him is perfect. Brandon can make the catch, and then knock over the nearest defender. As he showed against Dallas, he can also put on a few moves.

Am I being critical of the schemes? Sort of. I'm not going to claim to be a pro-level coach, and the Broncos coaching department would be foolish to hire me. But all I can do is write what I'm seeing, and what I seeing seems to indicate that we could do a few things a little differently.

If we are getting gutted by the middle pass rush of teams like BAL and PIT, why not keep a RB in to block the interior and use the TE as the safety valve?

There are Offenses, and then There are Offenses

I'm a defense guy; I always have been. But one thing I've noticed is that there are several levels of offenses. First, there are the terrible offenses. These are the offenses that self destruct, and a good defensive coordinator doesn't interfere with any fancy plans of his own. "Don't interfere with another team's self-destruction" was one of my old HC's sayings.

Some offenses are just plain bad, or even average. You deal with those. And then there are good offenses.

Good offenses win games, and don't lose games. You have to spend a lot of work bringing down a good offense. Perhaps my favorite quote from my old HC boss was "Hard work beats Talent when Talent doesn't work hard".

But there is another level of offense, and this is what I call "dominating". Few teams win SBs without a dominating offense. Guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger can run up points on most teams. Those are the teams to watch out for.

Here's the problem. The Denver offense finds ways to win, and that's great for the regular season. We have a reasonable shot at the playoffs right now, as I wrote in the introduction (2nd in the AFC currently). But we lack a dominant offense. Teams don't fear our short-yardage running game. They respect our receivers, but they can afford to bring the safeties forward a bit because they know we will screen and hitch all day long. This, in turn, hurts our running game. (Of course, the lack of a solid running game hurts the pass, too).

Denver needs points. We can move the ball, but we can't strike quickly. If we want to push back safeties, we'll need to challenge the deep field more. We've seen Orton throw deep, just not enough. If we want to stop the pass rushes, we need to sell the running game. Teams have seen what we've been doing, and they've adjusted. Now its our turn to adjust. Will the "Amoeba" system allow us the adaptability that it is known for?

Defense

I'm very, very happy with our defense. While our offense is in the bottom half of the League in every major category, our defense is in the top ten.

Points allowed? 3rd. Yards allowed? 3rd. Pass yards allowed? 7th. Rush yards allowed? 8th.

We have an excellent DC, and he has head coaching experience. He knows what he is doing, and I feel that he will make adjustments as needed. Do I have any concerns?

Well... About this Ty Law guy. Don't get me wrong. I've heard and read the arguments for bringing him in, and I'm on board. That's out of the way. In the first game he had one tackle. I don't know how many passes he broke up, and have no other stats available. But I was bothered to see him out of place so much, and saw other players trying to line him up. This is understandable, since the guy was only unretired for a day or two before playing the game. But still, with a 6-1 record, do we really want to rush in the guy when another player (even a lesser player) that knows that playbook is available? Every time I saw Ty looking around I cringed. He looked terribly lost out there.

But that's a minor issue. Ty should be good for the Washington game, and even better beyond that.

That reminds me, we have a game against Washington!

Denver at Washington

I'm going to abbreviate my thoughts on this game, having spent so much time talking about our team as a whole. Here are the highlights to watch for in matching up these teams.

1) The WAS O-Line gives up an awful lot of sacks. Denver has done a good job against some great OLs this year. Oh, and the WAS O-Line is riddled with injuries. Doom should have a great day.

2) Star RB Clinton Portis is out, Ladell Betts didn't practice at the time of this writing. WAS's run game is in trouble.

3) Watch out for Albert Haynesworth (DT). He's been doing a fantastic job on the interior of the WAS D-Line, and will be a danger to our running game. He isn't as much of a pass rusher, but has to be accounted for.

4) WAS ranks 20th or worse in each of the four major offensive categories. I expect our defense to have a big day.

5) The WAS defense is strange. They are the best pass-stopping team in the NFL, but only 25th against the run. Albert Haynesworth can't do it all by himself.

6) Washington is a team full of injuries and controversy. Recently they had the on field (well, "sideline") scuffle with the Falcons. There is also controversy about how good (or bad) Coach Zorn is. The owner spends a lot of money on big names, but doesn't seem to put together a good "team". The record is 2-6. This can't be a happy locker room. Imagine being a team that is 2-6, sharing a division with teams that are 6-2, 5-2, and 5-4. Almost as bad as the Raiders (who are at least ahead of KC).

The bottom line is that this is a game tailor made for the Broncos to win. They need to win, but a big win would be good for morale. Denver has dropped two games, and the doubters are rearing their ugly heads. A big win won't satisfy a bandwagon fan; nothing will. But it could send a message to the rest of the League. Denver isn't back; they never left. They're still one of the top teams in the AFC, and they have the time to make the adjustments necessary to stay there.

This is the time to send a message, before the hungry Chargers and the angry Giants come to town in the next two weeks.

What are your thoughts?

[Updates from the author]

1 - Word is out now that Betts WILL start at RB against the Broncos, despite an injured ankle and not practicing most of the week. This would seem to portend serious problems for the Redskins rushing offense.

2 - Jeff Legwold writes in the DP that the Broncos are still using some zone blocking in their run-block schemes, which is true. When I read his article I saw the title "Q&A: Broncos still use zone-blocking schemes", which made me do a double take. "No we're not!" I thought to myself. However, the article makes clear that we still run some zone blocking. My contention remains that Denver continues to set aside the zone block, and that the running game seems to be having a rough time because of it. Jeff's first paragraph is more accurate than the title some editor attached to his story (emphasis mine):

John, it would be a misconception to say the Broncos have totally abandoned their zone-blocking scheme of the past. They still use some zone concepts at times in their running game, but they have more situations where they are man-on-man up front in some run situations.

Poll

Okay, we're at the midseason. Very good record, but a couple of disappointing losses recently. So where are we headed?

At least 1 playoff win (bye or win).

277 votes

Playoffs.

367 votes

No Playoffs.

29 votes

673 votes | Poll has closed

MHR Chalk Talk - Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos MNF ('09, wk 8)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:51:07 -0000

Folks, this is the game I've been waiting for all season. There is an awful lot to look at between these two teams, and from a purely Xs and Os standpoint, this game should be a feast for football lovers.

The Steelers are the defending SB champions. Their young coach had to start under the shadow of a big name. This is a team that has excellent players in just about every facet of the game, and they are used very well by the coach.

The Broncos have emerged from a few years wandering the wilderness, and have a near perfect record. Their young coach had to start out in the shadow of a big name. Excellent players? Check. Great coaching? Check.

And this game will be on Monday night. Does it get any better?

Read on....

Offensive Postion Analysis

I'm going to break this week down a little differently than what we're used to. Let's start with my comparison of the teams' units.

QB - PIT

Let's face it; Kyle Orton is for real. His 95.5 rating is due in big part to a lack of INTs. In 7 games, he has 1 INT thrown on a "hail Mary" pass to close out a half. Orton makes his living in Denver by throwing screens, hitches, and curls. He is willing to throw the ball away or to take a sack rather than throw an INT. This looks ugly to many fans, but it demonstrates a style of play that isn't what Denver fans are used to. Gone are the "gamble and scramble" days. Orton doesn't gamble; he picks his targets or throws off. Boring? Yes. Effective? It wins games.

But "Big Ben" is an established QB, with a lot of good football behind (and ahead) of him. He does it all. Ben Roethlisberger can throw and run, and has experience up to and including the Super Bowl. His rating is 102.6

Ben gets that rating by completing his passes. Where Orton is at a career best 63.6 completion percentage, Big Ben is at 70.4. Both QBs are good at what they do, and Orton has been terribly underrated. But I have to give Ben the advantage here.

WR - tie

Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are two big names in the NFL football ranks. While the Steelers have always been a tough, smash mouth team, they are airing out the ball this year. Holmes and Ward have been a big part of the 5-2 start. Both players are not only key in the pass game, but can get physical and run block as well. These guys present a solid 1-2 punch.

Denver isn't lacking either. Brandon Marshall has estabalished himself as a real star this year. Changing his mind on being a hold out, and (it is to be hoped) having put the off field issues behind him, Marshall has proven that he is a physical receiver who can run you over. Against the Cowboys though, he proved he can zig and zag through a defense too. Opposite Marshall is Eddie Royal, who garnered 2 returns for TDs in a game. A legit #1 receiver, Royal has speed and cuts that make him a deadly threat if he catches the ball in full stride. Denver's hidden strength is depth at WR, with route specialist Jabar Gaffney and smart / physical Brandon Stokley equaly deadly at the slot position.

TE - DEN

This is a tougher call than many Denver fans might think. Obviously, Daniel Graham is a monster blocker with good hands, and Tony Scheffler is a receiver in a TEs tough body. And yes, Richard Quinn is a tough blocking rookie. Yes, I'll take Denver. But don't be fooled, because Pittsburgh is loaded too.

Heath Miller is an excellent TE, as is Matt Spaeth. David Johnson can be brought in for a 3-TE look, and (in fact) I would call PITT one of three teams capable of playing 3 TE sets on a consistent basis this year if they wanted to. (DEN and NE are the other two, based on history with the formation and other factors).

I give Denver a slight edge here.

RB - DEN

You have to love Correll Buckhalter. Anyone who averages 6 yards per carry this far into the season is a keeper. His 18 receptions aren't shabby either. Rookie Knowshon Moreno has been getting his feet wet, and owns a 3.9 average.

Rashard Mendenhall is a power running back who has better speed and elusiveness than most power runners. His 5.4 average is very, very good. PIT could run the ball a lot more with this kid if they wanted to. The only criticism I've heard is that he can fumble the ball. He has two fumbles (both for losses) this year, but that's better than Moreno (3 fumbles - all lost) and tied with Buckhalter (also two fumbles, but lost one).

OL - DEN

The most notable issue for Denver is the loss of RT Ryan Harris. One of the best RTs in the League, he'll be missed this week. While I think Tyler Polumbus can hold his own against most teams, I respect the Steeler's defense, and TE Daniel Graham will likely need to be limited to Pass blocking duty to offset the loss.

Denver's other strength is LT Ryan Clady, who is arguably one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL today, and still young. And while Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper are both very good at what they do, Center Casey Wiegmann is the real anchor in the middle of the OL.

Denver's only weakness on the OL is the lack of power for short yardage. Denver seems to be asking the athletic and agile lineman to assist with power runs up the gut, something they aren't built for. As the season has worn on, Denver has gotten further from their zone blocking tradition. For what it is worth (and in the eyes of Denver's coaching staff, it isn't going to be worth anything), I think Denver needs to get back to the ZB. If Denver wants to transition into a typical run blocking scheme, then they should at least play to the current strength of the OL players. The ZB is always run as a short yardage play, with the very real possibilty that it will break open. Right now, we don't have the bodies to support dives and slams.

On the other hand, if PIT has a weakness, I think it is the OL. Big Ben has been sacked 20 times this year, and faces a terrific pass rush from Denver. I think the OL is improving, but they have a ways to go.

Offensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 23.9 (14th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 383 (6th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 276 (5th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 107 (19th)

Folks, we need to wake up and smell the coffee. We are not in the top ten in any single offensive category I've listed. There is no room for Orton bashing. It is clear that Orton is doing his job, and doing it well. A QB rating in the 90s means a good QB, and we've seen what our receivers can do. We are also over 100 yards per game rushing, which is the classic standard. But we have some things to address, and we need to move fast.

First, we need to fix our short yardage issues in the running game. Next, we need to start getting TDs. A 6-1 record is a good thing, and each of our players are doing a good job. But if we are going to make the playoffs, we will need to be able to put up more points.

I wrote in last weeks article that Denver is NOT a shoot out team. We have come back from poor 1st halfs all year, but we can't rack up points if the opposing team decides to make the game high tempo. It was a major key for Baltimore last week, and they executed. Like NE, Denver likes to accumulate small advantages and chip away at the other team, winning close if neccassary. But Denver needs to be more like NE in another respect; Denver needs to be able to run up scores when needed.

At this point in the season, Denver has a cushion to find out what the problems are (6-1). But we'll need to see some adjustments quickly. Coach McDaniels has proven that he can make adjustments during half time. Now we need to see if he can make adjustments over the course of a season, which is a completely different skill set for a coach.

PITT has the better QB, and the better passing game. PITT's only concern is the OL, but that is a big concern. I think PITT's running game could be better if they committed to the run, but they haven't needed to. If we were comparing offenses, I would give the advatage to PITT. They beat us in everything except running the ball. But folks, we don't compare the same units (off vs off). We compare offenses to defenses. Before we do that, let's look at the defenses so that we'll know what to compare.

Defensive Position Analysis

We have two great defenses lining up this week, and this is a real treat for fans of defense. I love the Iron Curtain almost as much as I love the Orange Crush. This year, both units are in elite form.

DL - PITT

Just how good is the PITT DL? Consider this. Aaron Smith goes down for the season. Losing a starting DE is a rough thing to deal with. Then his back-up goes down for this week (Travis Kirschke). Does PITT panic? Not at all. Ziggy Hood and Nick Eason step into the gap without missing a beat. Like Denver, PITT is ok with rotations on the line, and they have depth.

Denver (on the other hand) may not see Ryan McBean at LDE this week (LDG if you consider the DEnver defense to be a true 5-2). This is a bigger problem for Denver. Denver rotates the line too, but I wouldn't yet put the defensive line in PITT's league. I'm not saying that the Denver DL isn't good by any stretch. I'm just saying that we are great, but PITT is excellent.

OLBs - DEN

I don't care if we call them DEs or OLBs, but Denver is stacked at the position and can rotate all day long.

One guy to keep in place is Elvis Dumervil. With 10 sacks for the season, you can bet that PITT is scheming to stop him. Playing at RDE (ROLB), Doom is a sack master who uses his low center of gravity and long wingspan to out-judo his opponents in the bull rush, and uses speed and agility to get around blockers when rushed wide.

Denver can sprinkle in Mario Haggan, Darrell Reid, and Robert Ayers to stay fresh. (Watch for PITT to counter with the no-huddle. More on this later).

At ILB, Denver has Andra Davis, who has been rejuventated playing in Denver. Davis uses strength and leverage to get his way. To his right, D.J. Williams continues to be the anchor for the LBs. His skill set is based more on speed and agility, but he is as tough as nails and not a light LB. Even back-ups Spencer Larsen and Wesley Woodyard are dangerous when put on the field.

PITT also has an excellent LB corps. There is some concern about whether Lawrence Timmons (RILB) will be able to play on Monday. I expect him to show up, and to play 100%. Like talking about the DL, I may sound like I'm putting down a unit because I pick the other. Not so. Both teams have great DLs, and I gave the edge to PITT. Both teams have great LBs, but I'll give the edge to Denver.

CBs - DEN

Some folks will find fault with the PITT CBs. Not me. Ike Taylor is a good CB, and so is William Gay. Both are fundementaly sound, underrated, and a terrific tandem. (Watch Ike for blitzes. He is one of the best blitzing CBs in the League. If he doesn't get to the QB, he still typicaly causes hurry ups. He may be moved between left and right CB as well).

However, they are nothing near Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. Bailey is going to the Hall of Fame some day, and Goodman is playing better ball in Denver than in Miami. In fact, he's doing it even though he's going to get a lot of throws his way when QBs avoid Bailey.

And while Jack Williams is ill, Denver does fine with rookie Alphonso Smith playing at nickle.

SAF - DEN

Both teams have excellent safeties. Denver has the player that revolutionized the safety position - Weapon X - Brian Dawkins. Older? Yes. Depleted? Not yet. Dawkins is tearing up the field for Denver by being in on most plays and keeping the defense fired up. He is the leadership this defense has been missing. Next to him, Renaldo Hill (like CB Goodman) has come to Denver and is playing better football. Together, these two safeties have been amazing. Their back-ups would be worth writing about, but many are injured (Josh Barett and David Bruton). Rookie Darcel McBath has the potential if he is needed.

But PITT has Troy Polamalu at Safety, and he's a beast. Don't let the shampoo comercials and the soft voice fool you. Troy is one of those safeties that can do it all - hit, tackle, intercept, disrupt, and cover. He is arguably one of the top five (if not number one) safeties in the League, along with Dawkins and Reed. He's coming off of an injury, but expected to play.

The big news this week is Ryan Clark at free safety. Because of a rare blood disorder, Clark should not be playing in Denver's altitude. My heart goes out to the guy, as there is talk he may not even be allowed to make the trip.

STs - DEN

You didn't think I'd give STs their own section did you? Of course not.

Ok, there may be reason to worry about Prater. Read more from MHR member OrangeandBlue27 here. And we just switched out punters, didn't we? But PITT has the kick and punt coverage that Denver must have had last year. PITT has given up 3 TD on STs in the last 3 weeks. Royal has been know to get two TDs on returns in one game.

Defensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 13.7 (2nd) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 266.7 (1st) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 180.6 (8th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 86.1 (3rd) 76.6 (1st)

I'm hearing a lot about the almighty Steelers defense this week. Let's give credit where credit is due. Pittsburgh has a great defense. But Denver beats Pittsburgh in every category but one, where Denver still manages a third best in the League ranking. Another stat to throw in - Denver allows 1/3 of opposing 3rd down conversions (33.3%), while PITT is allowing 43.3%.

In sum, both teams should stop the run this game. That much is clear. But how do the units match against there opposite numbers? What about the systems, the plays, and the head to head match ups?

~~~

Pre-Game Analysis

Strategic

Denver is 6-1. SIX AND ONE! They are at home on a Monday night, and except for one key injury, are all on the field. Pittsburgh is 5-2, including a close loss to CIN (a team Denver beat) and CHI. Both loses were close, so PITT is pretty darned close to being unbeaten themselves. I'll grant that. But 6 and 1 is nothing to sneeze at. Unless you are a sports writer (more on that in a moment). PITT may be missing some players, and others are coming off of injuries. Still, PITT had a bye week to rest and prepare.

I love the media. I really do (not). Some of my favorite things I've read this week include a ridiculous story about how accurate those Vegas guys are, knowing to pick against an undefeated Denver team and to go with Baltimore. Nice. Don't bother mentioning that Denver is 6-1, despite Vegas being wrong in six of those games (Denver was only favored one time). Another article (I won't mention John Clayton by name) buys into the mantra that Orton has a weak arm. Yet another claims that the Ravens and the Steelers have similar defenses. They're both physical, and both play a lot of 3-4, but the Ravens have been playing the 2 gap Fairbanks-Bullough system, while the Steelers have been playing the Lebeau Zone Blitz.

The minute Denver loses "one" game, the doubters came out (as predicted by many at MHR). All of a sudden, we are a team preparing to enter a death spiral. All of a sudden, we're not as good as we thought we were.

As of today, factoring in tie breaks, Denver is the number two team behind unbeaten Indianapolis in the AFC. In the NFL, Denver ranks as the fourth best team (Saints and Vikings are 2nd and 3rd).

Not enough for you? Denver has beaten the 5th, 6th, and 7th best teams in the NFL (CIN, DAL, and NE). One game is not the end of this team. In fact, a loss at this point in the season (while not prefered) gives the team better film to study. There isn't as much to find on film from a win, but a loss provides much room for analysis and growth for a good team. Rather the loss now than in the playoffs.

Let's not sell PITT short. As I mentioned earlier, their only two losses were close ones, and this team has star power.

But certainly don't sell Denver short. Denver has a 6-1 record against teams with an average winning percentage of .510 (opposing teams combined for 26-25 record). That beats PITT's opponents, who have a losing average. Those opponents are at .451 (a combined 23-28). More amazing is to factor in that Denver's opponents have a better record than PITT's, despite the fact that each of Denver's opponents had to play "Denver", who gave 6/7ths of those teams a loss (compared to PITT, who handed out losses to 5/7ths).

In other words, we have two very, very good teams on the field. A lot of folks are nervous because Denver has lost one game. But over the course of this season, Denver has played better ball and has a better record and stats to show for it.

Let's revisit the comparisons between rankings, but look at offensive vs defensive match-ups.

Denver Offense PITT Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 76.6 (1st)

On offense, we see that PITT beats us relatively in every category but one (the pass game), where we rank even. Now let's look at how PITT does on offense.

PITT Offense Denver Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 23.9 (14th) 13.7 (2nd)

Yards avg per game - 383 (6th) 266.7 (1st)

Pass avg per game - 276 (5th) 180.6 (8th)

Rush avg per game - 107 (19th) 86.1 (3rd)

Here, we beat PITT in every category but one. Again, it is the pass game that is different. Here PITT beats us. So relative to how each team has played so far (as measured in rankings), DEN wins in 6 stats, PITT wins in 7, and the teams tie in another.

The margin in the difference in rankings over all favor PITT by 29 "ranking points" when we have the ball, and favor Denver by 20 When PITT has the ball. On the other hand, Denver's defense is 32 points better than PITT's defense, while PITT's Offense is only 17 pts better than Denver's.

The key is the actual points on the score board at the end of the game, and this is where efficieny comes in. Remember the stat I mentioned about third down conversions? It comes into play when we look at teams moving the ball down the field. Even though PITT averages about two more minutes in time of possession, Denver runs the ball better, even though both teams are near each other in terms of rushing defense. While PITT is likely to stop Denver on the ground, they'll have a harder time stopping the Denver running game relative to Denver stopping PITT's 19th ranked run game. The pass offenses and defenses are very close for both teams, and is a wash.

Tactical

I see three approaches for the Steelers on offense this week.

No huddle scheme
Run heavy scheme
Passing attack

Those are over-simplifications, but they'll make the points easier to understand.

First, the no huddle looks good on paper. Every one from Clayton to Big Ben are advocating it for this week. I see some problems with this approach. First, this game isn't in Baltimore, it is in the Mile High city. Assuming that Denver is conditioned to the altitude (metabolic levels, etc), does PITT really want to level the playing field between the defense and offense in terms of endurance? The way to beat a defense at altitude is to win time of possession by keeping the defense on the field. You do that with no-huddle, but the higher tempo leads to a change of possesion quicker (whether from a turnover, score, or inability to convert a down). Why not just keep the ball, and move down the field consistently? Besides, Denver has almost certainly devoted a lot of practice hours to adjusting for the no huddle in light of last week's game.

The second approach is to run the ball more. I this approach much more. PITT hasn't been winning games on the ground, they've done it in the air. Folks might argue that the low ranking in average run yards is because of a lack of commitment to the run, and this is true. But against the third best run defense in the League, why not give the ball to your star QB, or at least strike a balance?

The passing attack may be the way to go. The best players on the offense are arguably at QB and WR, and this has been working for PITT. The question is, can the OL protect Ben? Denver has a great sack scheme, and PITT'S OL isn't the best right now. Ben can take hits, and can throw on the run. He's a big, fast player in the mold of an Elway.

For Denver, they need to throw the ball. The run has been under utiized by PITT, but despite Denver's decent individual stats, Denver just isn't tearing teams apart with the run game. Together, the run and the pass have moved the ball down the field for Denver, but not created a lot of points in quick strikes. This will beat most teams, but won't win shoot outs. In fact, if Denver hope to beat INDY in Dec, they had better learn how to put up points on every long drive OR put up points quickly on most drives.

In a surprise twist, I wonder if McDaniels feels that Orton can handle a no huddle or two? This would be the game to bring it out. You can beat a physical defense at altitude with a good no huddle.

Denver needs to keep their TEs in to block this game. PITT's zone blitz is formidable, and two TEs are the standard counter to a 3-4. Graham (TE) in particular will be needed to assist the right side of the line in pass blocking with the Harris missing at RT. I don't expect many passes to TEs in this game. If Orton uses a safety valve, it will likely be a running back.

Expect bump and run from the Steeler CBs, but coverage to be over the top. Expect the safeties of PITT to play the pass more than the run in deep zone. LBs and DLs will take turns in zones and rushing the passer in the typical zone blitz manner. I expect the PITT defense to do a good job shutting down the run.

Expect the Denver defense to play off or on coverage, but not tight. The Denver CBs will play underneath in most match-ups. While one Denver ILB zones the middle, mans the RB, or blitzes, the other ILB will take one of the other two assignments. The OLBs (DEs) will rush or zone.

PITT will vary their offense, presenting 2 TE sets, I forms, and 3 receiver sets. I don't expect Denver to use a FB, so expect 2 TE or 3 WR sets.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Denver lost last week when they let the Ravens get after Orton. Denver's OL must hold.
Denver lost last week when they let the game turn into a shoot out. They probably can't run against the Ravens very well, but too many passes may lead to a shoot out. Denver needs to complete a lot of intermediate and short passes, get into a rhythm, and move the ball consistently and slowly (this will also tire the PITT defense).
Ben is a terrific QB. But he makes mistakes. If the pass rush can reach Ben (and it should against the Steeler's OL), an elite secondary has the chance to make key INTs. Rush Ben, and don't drop those INTs.

PITT

Win time of possesion. If you want to win in the altitude (something PITT hasn't done much of), you need to keep your defense off of the field. Try the no-huddle if you want to, but keep the oxygen handy for your guys on both sides of the ball.
Challenge with the run game. If Mendenhall can match his terrific YPC average, run down the Broncos. At worst, it doesn't work and you still have a great passing game. But try the run out.
Don't kick to Royal. You're better off kicking out of bounds on punts.

This game could go either way. For every stat that favors one team, another stat counters it. PITT is a more physical team, and a more balanced team. Denver has the better defense. Perhaps the Baltimore game has helped to prepare Denver for the Steelers.

This will be a great Monday Night Football encounter. I like Denver at home, with the better record against a tougher schedule in the first 8 weeks (7 games). For that reason, I don't understand PITT getting 3 points in Vegas. Still, PITT is no joke, and I'm not fully confident with picking Denver. The reason? While we have a SB caliber defense, our offense is "just" doing well. It needs to play much better than that if we are going to beat the many types of teams we'll be playing this year. We rank in the bottom half of the League in passing yards per game and points. The points stat really stands out.

Good teams lose ball games, but they lose close (as PITT has). Yes, we had one loss, but it wasn't close. An inability to dominate is the problem. Good teams "find a way to win". That's what we've been doing. Great teams dominate, and we have yet to do that.

This week, I'm confident that the Steelers come in with a good game plan and players ready to execute. I know the Denver players will be fired up (or Dawkins will be kicking butts in the locker room). What I'm looking forward to seeing is how McDaniels adjusts to a loss. I've already bought in to the McDaniels way, and I'm hoping that he's on top of this aspect of coaching too.

Denver wins (fingers crossed and nervous as Hell).

Poll

Do you like the new look of MHR's front page?

Yes! Much Better

116 votes

No! Give us our colors back

162 votes

No opinion

105 votes

383 votes | Poll has closed

MHR Chalk Talk - Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens 2009

Steve Nichols — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 22:32:05 -0000

How good are the Ravens? Don't be fooled by the 3-3 record. They've beat the teams they should have (KC and CLE), and won against a tough SD team. Their losses came to teams that are pretty good (NE, CIN, and MIN). Don't sell this team short.

On the other hand, many folks are more likely to sell Denver short. Vegas has them down by 3 points at the time of this writing, despite a 6-0 record. Denver beat two teams that beat BAL (NE and CIN), as well as CLE, SD, OAK, and DAL. How good is Denver?

Special Teams - Sep and Oct players of the month (Kicker Matt Prater and Returner Eddie Royal).

Offense - Kyle Orton, who played the first four games with a protective glove has thrown only one INT (a bomb throw to end a half with no time left) and holds a 100+ QB rating.

Defense - Keeping opponents to an average 11 points a game.

But how do the teams match up? Both teams come off of a bye week, and have had ample time to draw up superior game plans. Who wins in each aspect of the game, and how should they plan the game? Let's look at some possibilities....

Ravens Offense vs Broncos Defense

(Advantage in bold and italics)

Ravens Offense Broncos Defense

Points 28.2 (5th) 11 (1st)

Yards 393.2 (5th) 262.5 (2nd)

Pass 268.3 (8th) 182.8 (8th)

Run 124.8 (10th) 79.7 (3rd)

Two things come to mind when thinking of Denver's pass defense. First, the Denver secondary is legendary. Brian Dawkins at FS and Champ Bailey at CB is unbelievable. But Denver's pass rush is amazing, too. Elvis Dumervil (ROLB/RDE) is a pass-rushing machine and leads the NFL with 10 sacks. Elvis gets moved around the line to create confusion and mismatches, and his exceptionalism allows other players to make plays as well. How does the Baltimore Offense counter?

Well, that's a tricky question. In their last three games, Baltimore has given up seven sacks. Jared Gaither (LT) will play this week, but fans of both teams will hold their breath because Jared suffered a scary neck injury earlier on, and this makes things dicey.

Beyond that, Joe Flacco (QB) is playing very well with a 93.8 QB rating (and is coming off of a hurt ankle). His WRs may be a little suspect, though. Derrick Mason is a good WR, and needs to be accounted for. Todd Heap is also a fine TE. But according to Bruce (our good friend from Baltimore Beatdown) the receiving corps is having issues with passes over the middle, and is depending on sideline curls (too much). Frankly, I don't think this hurts Baltimore against Denver.

Against a great secondary, there are two things to avoid. One is the deep pass, and the other is an "out route". Both are the leading ways to get an interception, and a well-placed pass on a curl route is a safe (if boring) way to move the ball. In fact, Denver isn't averse to short hitches and curls to the edges on offense, and they move the ball just fine without interceptions in that mode. This is also a good, quick way to get rid of the ball against a good pass rush.

Baltimore's offense would be wise to stick with those curls. They have a decent running game behind backs Ray Rice with 6 yds per carry (who is also effective out of screens), and Willis McGahee (4.5 ypc). In fact, a lot of the Baltimore offense reminds me of Denver's.

Baltimore has a good running game, and they do well with short, high-percentage throws. They also make threats with screens.

This is an efficient team that doesn't bowl you over with yards, but they make their yards count and put up a lot of points. Denver is also learning the value of this kind of football. Having jettisoned a QB that put up excellent yards but a lot of INTs, Denver has moved in the direction of "game management", careful passing football and racked up wins as a result.

How does one attack such a team? Baltimore has an offensive issue that Denver's offense doesn't share - pass blocking. I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but Denver is winning the defense battles with an amazing pass rush, and they should do that here, too.

A good pass rush from the front 5 (Denver runs a 5-2 look) allows the two ILBs to account for the run, and plugs enough gaps (Denver runs a 1-gap attack) to prevent runs. But in the pass game, that same effective rush harries QBs and can break up plays in the backfield before they get started. If Baltimore can hold the Denver rush (a tall order) they can get the screens out, and make the quick, short passes to move the ball down field steadily. And while nobody is running the Broncos over in the running game (Denver holds teams to under 80 yards rushing), Baltimore needs to try to be the first. A good running game brushes back effective rushes and blitzes, and this would take away Denver's best defensive asset. Still, that's a tough order.

Broncos Offense vs Ravens Defense

Broncos Offense Ravens Defense

Points 22.2 (17th) 21.7 (19th)

Yards 368.7 (9th) 332.7 (19th)

Pass 236 (12th) 241.5 (23rd)

Run 132.7 (7th) 91.2 (7th)

Remember the days when the Ravens were killers on defense, but not so hot on offense? Things have changed quickly. Denver may not light up the scoreboard, but the Ravens aren't exactly shutting down offenses, either. How do offenses beat the Ravens? In the air.

The Ravens have a strong run defense. The DL features former Broncos favorite Trevor Pryce at LDE, but the real power is at LB with LILB Ray Lewis and ROLB Terrell Suggs. Behind them is one of my favorite free safeties in the game, Ed Reed. Ed is one of those "do it all" guys that can cover the pass and slam into a RB like a freight train. But Lewis, Suggs, and Reed are having a rough time this year, and the problem is at corner.

Samari Rolle is a very good corner, but is on the PUP list (injury). He may likely not return this season. This leaves Fabian Washington (who?) at #1 corner and former Bronco nickleback Domonique Foxworth at #2. Neither player has an INT this year.

The Baltimore pass rush faces a difficult prospect, too. Denver's tackles (Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris) are both young, Pro Bowl-caliber players. Pressure will need to come up the middle, if at all. As Orton is a pocket passer, this is where rushes need to come from, anyway.

So the Ravens' best card is their run defense, which ties Denver's run offense. Not a dominating way to face the Broncos.

Denver's path to winning is classic. First, see who has the edge in the running game. If Denver establishes the run, the game is over. I don't see the Ravens stopping the pass in any event. If Denver can run, they can mix up the run and pass, and go from there. The best option may not be the runs up the gut (Denver is awful on short-yardage, 3rd-down scenarios). Denver should test the edges.

Whether the run works or not, expect Denver to play 3 WR (or more) sets. This forces Baltimore to take LBs off the field (their strength) and to replace them with corners (their weakness). Denver has excellence at WR in depth:

Brandon Marshall, who zigzags and plows overs defenders with ease,
Eddie Royal, who ran a kick return and punt return for TDs against the Chargers in the last game,
Jabar Gaffney, who runs routes perfectly in the Denver system (the same routes he ran in NE),
Brandon Stokley, who switches up at slot with Jabar, and has experience, toughness, and great hands.

Between Orton's intelligent ball-handling, Denver's receivers, and the weakness at Baltimore's CBs, this is the matchup Denver fans should look forward to the most - the Denver passing game. If I'm running Baltimore's defense, I put the CBs in zone and play bend-don't-break.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Stop the run. I don't think Baltimore can win as a one-dimensional offense.
Get the early lead. Denver has been starting slow, but an early lead takes away the Baltimore running game.
Avoid turnovers. Baltimore can win this game if they win on field position. They can do this with a key fumble recovery or two. They shouldn't get many chances for INTs against Orton.

Baltimore

Win the time of possession battle. Keep the ball away from Denver's offense.
Win the special teams battle. Don't let Royal get going on punts or kicks. Denver has a new punter this week - make the most of it. Field position!
Baltimore has been able to put up a lot of points this year. Denver is NOT a shootout team.

Conclusion

Both teams are coming off of a bye. The game is in Baltimore, and Baltimore doesn't want to be 3-4 after this week. The weather (at the time of this writing) is expected to be rain. This favors defense and running. For this matchup, this would favor Baltimore.

On the other hand, Denver beats Baltimore in 6 of 8 comparisons I've listed above, and ties in two (based in relative League rankings). In terms of player matchups, I give Denver the advantage in depth. In fact, I give Denver the edge or tie at every player position comparison, including STs (Den) and Coaching (Den).

In my mind, Baltimore is very underrated. While their AFC North rivals PITT and CIN look good this year, BAL is a team that could turn on a dime and improve quickly. The only area that I believe they are stuck without improvement in is cornerbacks.

I don't expect to pick Denver every game this year. The only game I didn't pick Denver was against NE, and I called that one "too close to call". Sure enough, that game went into overtime, so I'll call that a "correct". Tough games still loom on the horizon (Indy and NYGs), but for now, Denver has proven they are for real and I'll stick with them.

Poll

Other than being 6-0, what has been the biggest surprise so far?

Royal returns a kick and a punt for TDs in same game.

186 votes

Doom leads the League in sacks near season half mark.

269 votes

Orton has only 1 INT this year (and that was on a hail mary).

730 votes

1185 votes | Poll has closed

MHR University - The 4-4 formation, and Wildhorse (Wildcat) References

Steve Nichols — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 13:43:19 -0000

I get a lot of questions regarding three formations. The first is the 5-2 variant of the 3-4 (such as employed by the Denver Broncos). My last MHR-U was on this topic, and several members and staff have written on this issue. Since Denver uses it, you can expect MHR to be on top of it.

I also get a lot of e-mails about the wildhorses formation. I've told several members that I would write on this, but many members have stepped into the gap and written excellent posts about the formations and how they are used. For my part, I am going to put together a reference guide so that the inquiring scholar may look up all of the information he or she needs in one, easy to find place (below).

The 4-4 is a common formation at many smaller HS programs, and a great number of middle school programs. It isn't really seen at the pro level, but an understanding of this formation is a building block for anybody's knowledge of a good defense. I'll discuss the two main variants of this formation, and how the formation was used at one middle school program that I was associated with.

Wildhorses

Yi Zhang's email is typical of the dozens of requests I get for word on the Wildhorse. The offense we saw on the field against the Patriots for several plays was not the wildcat, but has some points in common. He asks for a look at the wildcat, as he was impressed at how it was used to beat a good (NE) team. Let's take a deeper look.

From a comment by SlowWhiteGuy, one of our members who also has a coaching background -

...while a lot of announcers seem to want to compare the Wildcat with the Wild Horse they are actually two entirely different systems. The only similarity is the direct snap.

The Wildcat is a Spread Option attack from the shotgun. The tailback (Brown) lines up in the shotgun and a wingback (usually Williams) comes across on a jet-sweep action. The TB reads one of the defenders, usually the frontside or the backside DE, and options off the read. If the player bites on the jet-sweep, Brown keeps it; if the defender stays home he hands off on the jet-sweep. The defender is always wrong.

The Wild Horses is not an option based attack, but it does force 11 on 11 football. When Orton moves out from under center he forces the defense to account for six skill positions instead of the usual five. This forces the defense to show its hand a bit. That gives Orton a second pre-snap read and he can decide to continue with the direct snap or, he can motion back under center and get a third pre-snap read. It’s really about unmasking the defense.

Now we may see more wrinkles, like some jet-sweep action or some flee flicker action off this concept. But, while the Wildcat is primarily about creating option dilemmas for the defense the Wild Horses seems to be about unmasking the defense to exploit the holes.

SWG is entirely correct. I couldn't say it any better, and he stole my thunder for this article. I have nothing to add, except for an excellent breakdown on how to use the wildhorse. Funny thing is, I can't take credit for that either.

As used by Denver in the Patriots game, the Broncos used the wildhorse to probe the NE defense. Here is the excellent play-by-play background on how this was done, by member LebowskiBronco as part of his excellent series "The Dude Abides" -

Link

As you can see, the wildhorse is less of a formation with an intent to move the ball (such as with the wildcat), and is designed to see what the opponent is doing. Both formations (wildcat and wildhorse) have the word "wild" in them, and both have the direct snap (to a RB), but beyond that, they are entirely different.

If anyone has any questions on the wildhorse, or even on the wildcat, this is a great time to ask in the comments section below.

The 4-4 formation

One of the emails I got on this subject was from George Rowland, a young man who will be playing football at a university in the United Kingdom that runs a 4-4 defense. This makes sense, since the pool of players to pull from isn't going to be as diverse as in the USA. In a UK program, the plays are likely much more oriented towards running the ball. I hope you will all join me in wishing George the best at his studies in academia as well as American football. (As an aside, I wish George extra special good luck. I went to a university in the United States, and had to learn rugby! In that sense, I feel a special bond with George in learning a sport that is different from what one might have grown up with).

The 4-4 is a common defense at the middle school level (where there is much less passing) and at many smaller HS programs (where the pool of players presents fewer opportunities to find QBs and WRs for the offense).

There are two main variants. The first is called the "4-4 single", and the second is the standard 4-4, which is often mistaken for the 46 defense. While the 4-4 standard sounds like it would be more common (being called "standard"), it is the "single" that many programs run nationwide.

In the "single", we have four linemen (DE - DT - DT - DE) and four LBs (OLB - ILB - ILB - OLB), 1 cornerback, and two safeties. Many early age programs will oversimplify, and call the OLBs "DEs", but this isn't technically correct.

Here is how the middle school program that I was associated with ran our 4-4 (single variant). We put our biggest guys at DT. We put our fastest guy at CB. We put our toughest guys at the two ILB positions. We put our smartest kids at OLB. Our best all-around athletes took safety and DE, with the smarter kids going to safety. I am being very, very simplistic here for the sake of brevity.

In every play, without exception, the CB played man coverage. He never blitzed or zoned. He started in "on" coverage (halfway between "off" and "press"). The FS played deep zone, and his only job was to ensure that no offensive player was further down the field than he was. The SS played over coverage on the WR with an eye towards the TE. We didn't blitz our SAFs.

The DTs and DEs had only 3 plays to remember. Slant right, slant left, or straight up. Straight up was a rare call (once or twice per game). It was used to allow our guys to get a "hit" or "jack" on an opposing linemen. While not a completely sound call, it had the value of pumping up the line, and taking the OL off balance. The emphasis for the DL was to fire out of their stances quickly, and punch through (an underarm-punch motion) to get penetration between O-Linemen. This was entirely a one-gap proposition. Every gap was occupied, and the QB harried. Even on run plays (the vast majority), we often disrupted plays in the backfield. With advanced kids from year to year, we might introduce the "swim" (an overarm technique).

The OLBs had to be smart. Every play, they played run contain to the edges. The had to have the discipline to NOT make the tackle until a runner turned back to the inside of the field (where the remaining 11 defensive players are). Their number one focus was to ensure that a runner never, ever reaches the side of the field where he can then streak up field. With enough discipline, no sweeps or reverses would throw off our OLBs, forcing opposing teams to take the run up the gut.

The ILBs had only two assignments - zone the run, or blitz. So there were only 4 plays. Blitz right, blitz left, blitz both, or stay at home. Blitz both was rare, and stay home was most common. I'd guess we ran "stay" 70%, blitz R or L 25%, and blitz both 5%. On blitzes, the ILB chose his gap (he knows better than the coaches which kid on the offense he can handle). On a double blitz, the two agreed ahead of time on their gaps. (The only time I was predictable was when an opposing team was backed to their own goal line. Our penetration with 4 players was almost always enough to do the trick, but double blitzes scored a lot of safeties for us. I don't recall getting burned on any plays for 90 or more yards).

Now, as the defensive coordinator goes, we had a very simple hand-signal system (which changed each quarter). We could call plays with the parameters being limited to the DL slants, and the assignments of the ILBs. Here are some samples of our simple system:

Slant right, blitz right / slant right, stay / straight up, stay / etc.

Our focus was simplicity, character, toughness, endurance, and an elite mastery of the basics. We didn't go into "fancy" plays or gimmicks. This made our kids very marketable to the HS we fed into, because our kids had the basics down. At the middle school level, our program never had a losing year. It was not unusual for our defenses to hold teams to negative yardage, and without any blitzing. System-wise, we were a run contain (the OLBs), bend don't break system. We didn't give up big plays, and rarely blitzed. Despite this, our teams were dominant enough to stop most plays at or behind scrimmage.

Simplicity - What you see is what you get. We aren't hiding anything. You have to beat us to score.
Character - You talk smack to an opposing player or a ref, and you're done. If you can't be self disciplined, you won't be coach-able. Grades and off-field behavior determine if you even get a chance to play on this team.
Toughness - The other school's team isn't here to play ball. They're here to tear down our flag, to take our cheerleaders, to spit on our families and our friends, and to desecrate all that is holy. We are guardians of all that is just and right. We will knock these thugs on their butts, or die in the last ditch defending our school. Sounds silly, but our guys were always amped to play hard, and they saw the opposing team as an invading army. They took games personally.
Endurance - We will never tire or wear out. We won't sweat, or get out of breath. We keep coming at opposing teams full speed on every play, and this is because our conditioning program requires it. Everyone does weights, but everyone also runs, runs, runs, runs, runs....
Mastering the basics - Every basic concept is drilled ad infinitum. Tackle drills, stance, how to fire out of a stance, batting down passes, fumble recoveries. We didn't focus on intricate plays, multiple assignments, or trickery. Kids didn't get much at all in the ways of Xs and Os. We hit the basics everyday, and don't let up. We don't introduce concepts beyond the basics. (Again, the HS team got kids from several middle school programs, but our kids were featured because they were coach-able and didn't need reviews). We were teaching "football", not Madden. We were playing to win, but playing to get our kids into the HS program.

The other variant is the 4-4 standard. It looks just like the 46, and some may call it that. The formation features 2 CBs, 4 linemen, 4 LBs, and 1 safety. I don't call this a 46, and here's why. The 46 is not just a formation, it is a full-blown system (run notably in previous years by the Eagles, and years ago by the Bears). One of the OLBs is almost always a strong safety by trade. In a true, standard 4-4, the 4 LBs are true LBs and play any system other than a 46 system. (Note - good coaches will differ on this interpretation which is based almost entirely on what region he is from).

Like the single 4-4, it is based on stopping the run. In this case, the 4-4 provides a little more pass protection, but the deep pass is a threat. As with the 46, the FS must be elite. (The Eagles had Brian Dawkins, which allowed them to run a 46 for many years).

You now have a good, basic grasp of one formation strategy for a middle school level (7th, 8th grade) program. Of course, tactics (teaching proper techniques) and management are still issues that take years to learn. You know now quite a bit about the 4-4, though there are many approaches to using a 4-4, and I've only explained one (and a very simple one at that). And, of course, HS level football is light years ahead of this. But I hope that this article has given you an idea of how the 4-4 can work, and you can use the knowledge as a building block towards understanding how these principles evolve as we move up the ladder towards HS, college, and eventually pro-level play.

All the best,

Steve (formerly Hoosierteacher)

Poll

I played in, coached, or watched a program growing up that ran a 4-4...

Yes!

103 votes

No.

101 votes

I'm not sure.

32 votes

236 votes | Poll has closed

Chargers Game-Day Staffer Dies

Steve Nichols — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 20:07:33 -0000

From the Associated Press -

SAN DIEGO - A member of the San Diego Chargers' game-day staff died 12 hours after falling out of the press box before the Denver Broncos played the San Diego Chargers on Monday night.

Walt Daniels, 66, died at 2:30 a.m. Tuesday at Sharp Memorial Hospital, the San Diego County Medical Examiner's Office said.

Daniels appeared to sustain a head injury after falling about 25 to 30 feet out of a booth that was to be used by Broncos assistant coaches and landing on the loge level.

He was administered CPR before being taken to the hospital.

Workers later cleaned up a puddle of blood.

The accident happened about three hours before kickoff and delayed the opening of the gates by about 40 minutes.

"The San Diego Chargers' family is greatly saddened by the loss of Walt Daniels," the team said in a statement. "Walt loved the team and loved working in the press box on game days for more than 20 years. Our prayers are with his family and friends during this most difficult time."

Our thoughts and prayers from MHR go out to the family of Mr. Daniels, and to the Charger's community.