I just can't say goodbye to Roy. I feel like there's so much more he can give to the game of basketball and the Blazers. I recognize that he can't (shouldn't) play the game again, but does he posses the teaching ability to impart his winning ways onto young players? Would he be willing to be a coach?

I've read articles about how Roy has been working out with future NBA players like Wroten and Terrence Jones, teaching them a few things and dispensing advice. If he has the desire, I'd like for the Blazers to explore a coaching position for him. He's an All-Star with street-cred. He's not long from the game, so he knows the players, coaches, and refs. He may not have the knees to play an entire season, but I'd bet he could school the youngsters during practice sessions. Since we're moving to rebuild again, what better source of experience could we get for the new players than the R.O.Y. that brought the Blazers back to respectability.

I realize that hanging out with players and handing out pointers is a far cry from being a developmental coach, but if Roy has the desire to become one, he could be great. There are two players in the draft that I'd love to see him teach the game: Jeremy Lamb or Austin Rivers. According to DraftExpress.com's most recent mock draft, both players would be available with our 11th pick.

During a rebuild, the best way to return to greatness is to develop your talent internally. Other than coaches Bayno and Canales, what coaches did we have that really elevated the play of the young players?

This is several steps down the "things-to-do" list for the organization, but sometimes I wonder if it's even on their list at all. This might help them:

1. Hire GM.
2. Hire Head Coach with solid offensive and defensive philosophy (see Greg Popovich).
3. Hire lead assistant coach that compliments head coach.
4. Hire assistant coaches (developmental coaches) for Post, Wing, Back court.
5. Draft BPA only.
6. Create the ultimate NBA Player Development Training Course to train the mind more than the body. Fill it with: 1. Classroom and video training (position and team concept specific). 2. On-court walk throughs in advancing speeds from slow to in-game. 3. Weight room activity to build strength and explosiveness. 4. Yoga/pilates to build body control, balance, and flexibility. 5. Meditation to calm the mind and body. 6. Visualization to mentally repeat each lesson hundreds of times perfectly in the mind before attempting them with the body. 7. Individual player training sessions to focus on specific areas of need (ie. cross-over, catch and shoot, defensive movements, etc) 8. Positional training to expand on walk through lessons. 9. Taped scrimmages, where players implement lessons in simulated game situations with developmental coaches making notes and having video reference ability. 10. Positional Post Scrimmage Review with developmental coaches meeting with each position to review their notes and video. This should happen after the players have cleaned up and prepared to leave. It should include what was supposed to happen, what actually happened, and how things should be done differently in the future. 11. Homework is downloaded onto an IPAD for them to spend about 30 minutes viewing video of plays, situation testing, or simply visualizing free throws.
7. Develop an intense practice environment that is more intense than a real game.

As you can see, my thoughts on player development and its importance to the team's future are extreme. I believe players are only being given a fraction of the training they need and could uptake because 90% of training should be mental. The time when they're not sweating is when their brains should be exercised about the game, diet & nutrition, appearance, media, medical situations, personal conduct, finances, etc.

These players are high priced investments that deserve the best we have to realize their ultimate potential, and getting developmental coaches that they'll respond to is a key piece in making that happen. Is Roy a good option? What options are out there to help develop Wings & Bigs?

As the draft approaches, I wanted to empirically see what happened last year in the hopes that it would reveal insight into greater areas of need. The results were expected, surprising, and in some cases vomit-inducing.

The Link connects to a Google Document that breaks down each play called on offense and its result for the first 8 games of 2011. Since those were the only full games with Cassel, I stopped there.

After the Jump you can read my analysis of each game, in sequence. At the end of it all is my summary of hope.

I welcome further analysis of the data, and your thoughts.

Continue reading this post »

I won't rehash all the amazing things DeCastro would bring to the O-Line. They've been well argued by better posters than I. One point has been only vaguely touched on, however; the consequences for the QB position.

Continue reading this post »

I love the geeky title.

Rather than do the work I brought home with me, I decided to have some beer and pizza and pretend football season was starting soon. That of course depressed me so I went back to basketball, and I got further depressed after reflecting on our recent draft. So, in an effort to pull myself out of that tailspin of morbidity (I get verbose when buzzing) I figured I'd geek out with an attempt to quantify the NBA.

I've written a bit on my philosophy for building an NBA team, but I never took it to the next logical step: determining the algorithm that allows for the combination of five seperate players to work as one on the court. It would, in essence, allow one to calculate whether the sum is greater than the parts or not. With that, not insignificant bit of data, one could construct an optimization table to find the best result of players available. Granted, this is all speculation, but I'm buzzing and a math geek at heart so it's cool.

Step 1. The system is the key.

Much like the Patriots in football, the system in place is greater than the players. One guy goes down, and another interchangable player steps up to fill the vacancy. One player wants a big payday somewhere else? Fine. Next! To be sure, that's not nearly so easy in the NBA where only five players from the team play at one time. There's less ability to fully redistribute any load to the other players because they are already operating at near maximum capacity already.

In NBA terms, look at the Jerry Sloan teams of the past. They took players and molded them to fit their style of play. They didn't change their system (too much) to accomodate the player. Some may argure that the Jazz were consistently above average, but never great and should thus not be copied. I'd argue that STARTING your system with an above average base is the only way to achieve greatness. Of course if Jerry Sloan isn't your cup 'o tea, maybe Greg Popovich is. They kept the same system using diferent guys and have how many rings? Yeah. Thought so. Consistency of philosophy is where things start.

Step 2. Identify the algorithm.

Here's my part. I'm going to ramble a bit, but here goes. Each player has their own unique series of abilities that can be calculated using various metrics, but it's how those calculations intermingle with the other four players that really matters. It's in this area I feel we have been deprived the really relevant statistical information on players.

2.1 Traits to guage- The Mental

Proprioception (situational awareness, kinesthesia). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proprioception. Knowing the ability of a player to understand what is currently going on with his body in relation to those around him. Steve Nash has a high level.

Pattern Recognition. Being able to glimpse an image or series of images and know which image is next. For example, being able to spot when a pick & roll play is being set up.

Cause and effect. In tandem with pattern recognition goes the understanding of what that person's duty is for a given situation. For example, knowing when the PF needs to show hard in order to properly disrupt the pick & roll play.

Decision making speed. Being able to combine pattern recognition and cause and effect into a working combination that allows for the player to be in the right place at the right time is crucial. Being half a step late might as well be not being there at all.

Basket Ball IQ. Takes the last three features and combines them into a constructive whole. Seperately they are nice to have, but for true ability they must be combined by each player. Elite players have such a high level of aptitude that they can actually preempt the oposition by knowing what they will do before they know themselves. See Shane Battier.

2.2 Traits to guage- The physical

Twitch reflex. The time it takes for a decision to be made before the body reacts. Knowing the right thing to do and taking action are not the same thing. Feeling a shot go up (proprioception), recognizing it will miss(pattern recognition), knowing it will bounce to the left corner(pattern recognition), knowing to box out you man(BBIQ), and moving to collect the rebound (Twitch reflex). It's that last motion to action that can mean gaining posession of the ball or not.

Burst Speed. Short distance (10-15ft) speed from dead stop. Similar in football to the snap of the ball, it's the initial burst that can make the play. In basketball it can get the loose ball or make that back door cut.

Lateral speed. Moving side to side allows a player to obstruct an opponent's path, forcing them into lower percentage positions. The goal on offense is to move the ball to a position for a high probability of scoring, and lateral quickness on defense can lower an offense's probability of success.

Globe of influence. The globe of influence combines a player's height, reach, burst speed, lateral speed, and jumping ability to understand the space in which and the degree to which he can influence the outcome of a play. For example, visualize a globe with Nic Batum at the center. At the center of the globe is Nic with a bright green aura where he is very effective. As you travel farther from Batum's core, the green light begins to fade to yellow, and finally red (least effective). The shape and volume of the globe would depend on the given player's physical abilities. This is what many analysts refer to as "length".

2.3 Traits to guage-Phsychological

Mental strength. What stresses has the player been through and how have they responded?

Mental flexibility. What major changes have been required and how have they responded?

Core Self. Despite all changes in their life, what has been the constant?

Leadership ability. In situations that have required him to be a leader, how has he responded? In situations without a clear-cut higherarchy, has he ever stepped up to fill the void? How did that work out? What percent of his career has he been shouldered with leadership responsibility?

Teamwork ability. Does the player try to fit into the system in order to maximize everyone's potential, or does he expect others to mold themselves to his superior abilities? Will he defer to an obviously inferior teammate if it was the right play in the situation?

Basis of motivation. What gets the player to stay late after practice? Inferiority complex? Desire to be the best? Love of the game? Nothing better to do?

These represent the most basic traits that my addled brain could come up with.

Step 3. Functions in the algorithm.

Here's where having too many drinks really messes up this post, so I'll request help from the knowledgable BE readers from here.

What traits am I missing? How would you build the mathematical model (nothing too complex, I'm not ready for that)? Do you envision teams ever evaluation players this way (or are they already and I'm not up to speed)?

Go CHIEFS!

Long Live Greg ODEN! Brandon Roy, the new Ray Allen!

Go BLAZERS!

The view from the top.

Vision Statement: Who are we, and how will we achieve success?

In all team structures, the leadership sets the tone for the crew. A strong focused leadership with an intese, vivid vision of how success will be achieved is crucial to the framework for success. In other words; a team identity. Each action should be in pursuit of that identity. Once the vision statment is accomplished, the only real hurdle for management is consistency. Change for the sake of change admits to failed leadership. Give the decisions tome to bear fruit before you evaluate the harvest. In other words, be patient when needed but switft to action when needed as well. Knowing when to do either is wisdom.

My vision for the PTB: We are a balanced TEAM that prides itself on a balanced, efficient offensive execution and intese team defense that can parley each opponent mistake into a quick-strike counter attack or another highly efficient posession. With a proven system and intelligent players, we will bring a consistently high effort level with each minute of playing time, knowing that our teammates will be doing the same.

The Coach: Strategist

The head coach should know how to delegate functions so his time is spent managing and not supervising the players. This is an important and often overlooked function in many head-coaching candidates. So many head coaches have come up the ranks of assistants that their core knowledge is that of hands-on teacher. That's not what a HEAD coach is. A Head coach is the person that asseses the strengths and weaknesses of his players and adapts his basic system to maximize the effectiveness of the strengths and minimize the consequences of the weaknesses, without deviating from the core structure of that system. The players may come and go, but the core of the team philosophy shouldn't ever change. See the Vision Statement, or Jerry Sloan.

Assistant coaches: Unsung heroes

These are the people that will execute the philosophy of the head coach. It is their job to instil not only the basic principals but also the various nuances of that philosophy with the players through all the levels of learning until they understand it on an instinctual level.

Each assistant should have a core competance that he/she excels in. Be it defense, offense, guard play, big men, each assistant should bring at least one superior, unique skill set to the table. It is up to the Head Coach and management to decide which skill combinations are needed to tap the maximum of player potential.

Players: The Alpha

There must be an Alpha Dog in every pack; a player who epitomizes the vision of your team with the strength of personality to bend others to his will. Idealy this player is also your best player, but that is not required if there is sufficient strength of personality and leadership ability (for simplicity, I will assume that the Alpha is the best player on the team). This is perhaps the most crucial decision to be made because all on-court results will hinge on this choice. The possible results are greatness, pretty good, mediocrity, not terrible, and total cancer. The good news is that it should be apparent rather quickly if the correct choice was made. Put the group under a bit of pressure and see what happens. The bad news is that Alpha Dogs are a rare breed and even more limited by the system they would need to fit inside. If the goal is championships, greatness in leadership is required here. It wouldn't hurt to have superstar talent either.

Players: The Lieutenant 

The need for a secondary leader is immensely important. Just as it was critical the find an Alpha or Captain, so to is it critical the find a Lieutenant. This player is the counter-point to the Alpha on the court and in the locker-room. There is more room for fit in this position, as with all positions down the line, but the core factor is chemistry with the Alpha. They should be two sides to the same coin. If one is a post player, the other should be a wing. If one excels at scoring, the other should excel at rebounding. This is not a side-kick position. It is a complimentary position that allows both players to play off the other's strengths.

Players: Universal Soldier

This is a jack of all trades player that has the ability to fit his game into the needs of the moment, taking advantage of any mismatches caused  by the opponent's focus on the Alpha. This position requires a supremely high bball IQ and intense understanding of the head coach's philosophy. Does not necessarily posess the elite Alpha skills, but has the confidence to know when to strike at a weakness and make them pay. Must be a defensive specialist, and consistently be a positive factor while on the floor. High motor is a requirement. Can be subed out for a specialist player as the game unfolds and the tactical situation changes.

Players: Squad leader

Point Guard. This could be your Alpha, but not the Lieutenant or Universal Soldier. They have other roles to perform. The PG is responsible for directing the tactical evolution while processing information from his eyes, teammates, and coaches. Being able to process multiple channels of information simultaneously and being able to accurately interpret the data and act on it is crucial. In addition to information processing, the PG must have a strong grasp of his teammate's tendencies and preferences. Where do they like to shoot from? Where do they like the ball when it's passed to them? These are but two of the dozens of things the PG must know about every player on his team.

The PG must be a vocal director, not necessarily leader, on the floor. He must be able to call a player to task (with tact) for performance issues in all situations, even the Alpha. Whether it's a misread play, lack of aggression, or one of a hundred other nuances the PG is responsible for the execution on the floor and he must have the strength of character to demand perfection of everyone.

Specialist Players: Rebounder

Often refered to as garbage men, they get their points cleaning the glass. Posession of the ball allows you to dictate the game, and this player has only one focus: getting the ball. This function can be coached to some degree, but in most cases it's an instinctual nose for the ball that a player has or doesn't. Ideally a competent free throw shooter (70%+) as the amount of physical contact absorbed could lead to the charity stripe. Must have the ability to enter a game cold and provide immediate impact. Ideal for slow paced, posession oriented teams. Generates additional posessions (offensive rebounds), and limits opponent posesisons (defensive rebounds). Offensive skill is not a requirement, so the pool of talent is deep and the cost to acquire low. Can displace an offensive threat for a non-factor, depending on the substitution, which allows the defense to adjust accordingly against the Alpha and Lieutenant.

Specialist Player: 3-Point Shooter (Sniper)

The Sniper is brought in to spread a defense that is focusing on clogging the paint. Without an open paint, the low-post game and Slashers don't have sufficient space to work and get off a high percentage shot. This player must have consistent command of the full 3 point arc, with supreme ability to catch and shoot quickly. He must posess at least a rudimentary dribble drive and passing ability for when the defense closes out on him. Must have the offensive understanding to recognize a good shot and his limitations in making it. High confidence/Low conscience ratio. So long as he's evaluating his shot selection properly, he should continue to shoot even if he misses. It's the duty of the head coach and GM to know if the player has the consistency required to play the role.

Specialist Player: Slasher

Typically a wing player, the Slasher is a high energy bench player that comes in to facilitate offense by forcing the defense to move to cover. Often requiring multiple cuts and screens to get open, the need for superior athleticism is reduced or negated. Requires a high level of precision on rout running, body and feet placement, as well as a quick shot release. An ideal running mate for a backup point guard that is learning how and when to use the intricacies of the offense. Requires one or more players with strong pick-setting abilities to fully utilize his strengths.

Although this is all just a ramble of what's been buzzing around in my head for some time, I believe there are some grains of truth that could be utilized by the team.

1. Have a better vision of team identity. Difficult with the Roy and Oden injuries and a current lack of a GM.

2. Define the player roles better. Another difficulty given the injuries again. Same answer: big bucks. Make it happen, coach.

3. Consistency of philosophy. Are we a jump shooting team? Half court? Fast-break? Slow-break? Regardless of the players on the floor, the consistency of philosophy should not be changing so much from game to game. Playing the match-up game might get you a few more wins, but it's the loser's approach of inconsistency. Make the other team adapt, and you play to your strengths, getting better each time they try and stop you. This is a correctable flaw that would pay championship-level dividends.

4. Better specialists. We've got guys that are versatile, but we need a few that are dogged at one thing and live for the moment when they can do it.

5. Bball IQ & Veteran savy. The draft is fun because there is so much potential there, but potential seldom wins games. Experience does. Don't pay for over the hill types, but don't pinch pennies for a quality player in an area of need either.

Thanks for making it to the end. We now return you to your regularly scheduled draft talk.

 

Most of us have never had to go through the kinds of surgery and rehab Oden has had to endure. Those who have may know the physical and emotional pain that such recovery entails. To return to the level of elite NBA performance requires an almost unimaginable amount of dedication and mental toughness. I would like to lighten his emotional burden and help myself out at the same time.

 

I've been blessed with two good legs, but I've squandered that gift sitting in front of the TV and getting fat. Since Greg isn't due to be able to run for 5 months I propose we do some running for Greg.

 

I've created Oden Minutes as a Nike+ challenge and invite everyone who'd like to participate to join. It's set up to be 150 days starting 4/23/11, and the most miles in that time wins. Of course, just by participating we all win that much more health and we send Greg our support in his journey back the the hardwood.

 

Add your Nike+ moniker to the comments and I'll send you an invite, or you can add me as a friend "SteveTheHedge" and I'll get the invite to you.

It has been rumored that Gubernatorial candidate Chris Dudley, formerly of the Portland Trail Blazers has decided to pull his name out of the Governor's race and resume his career with the center strapped team. In an effort to sway Blazer fans from both political parties to his future candidacy, Dudley is offering to rescue his former team from the grips of a stunning predicament.

With fourth string center Jeff Pendergraph becoming the latest injury to beset the troubled franchise, word has traveled throughout the league that the position is cursed. Whispers of the Bowie Curse are keeping would-be players from even returning calls of new Blazer GM Rich Cho. Rather than admit the Curse has caused Eric Dampier to flee screaming like a scared little girl, Cho stated that the player was already headed somewhere else.

It appears Dudley believes he is immune to the curse since he played many years for the team without major injury.

Although Cho has not commented on Dudley's offer, there are reports that he has been in contact with professional exorcists, voodoo practitioners, wiccans, lycans, vampires, and zombies in an effort to find a cure to the curse. Harry Potter reportedly is scheduled to be flown in early next week to take a crack at it. Failing that, it appears he's willing to turn the team into zombies in an effort to get them to play through any injury. One would expect that he plans on using the fast, Steve Nash-like zombies rather than the slow, Eddy Curry-like zombies. It is hoped that with the addition of the fast zombies, a faster tempo might finally be achieved as well. Nate McMillan said that if the zombies can defend with scrap (not eating the opponent), there would be more opportunities for fast break points. Strangely, the robot Nate kept repeating that phrase over and over. Paul Allen was last seen heading to the coach's office with a laptop mumbling about programming errors and switching Mc(Millan) to a Mac.

Stay tuned for late-breaking updates.

Its time. We've been patient through the record setting losses. We've been tolerant with players that were more concerned with getting stats than with winning games. We've spent an entire season crippled with injuries. Now it's time to be champions. I don't want to hear about our window opening in the next few years. We've got the tools and talent to dominate now. What we're lacking is the butt-kicking mentality to rip the hearts out of our opponents.

I want Nate to put a basketball button inside that locker room (Like Staple's Easy Button). Everyone hits the button on the way out the door and it transforms them from mild-mannered NBA professionals into NBA Gladiators whose battlefield is the court. They need to find the emotion that lets them raise their level of play together, whether that be the assassin-like poise of the Spurs, the Slytherin-like haughtiness of the L@kers, the bad-boys of Piston lore, or the zone-like execution of MJ they need to become more than they currently are. I don't want them to show up and compete. I want them to show up and dominate. I want other teams to be scared to play Portland because of how they'll feel the next day.

I hate to say it, but I want a bit of the Utah Jazz in this team. More of the Malone & Stockton kind of grit. I always hated playing them because it was never an easy win. Never. That's what I want from this crew; something a bit mean and nasty. We've got the players to play more physically, but we need to take the next step to from being seasoned professionals and become veteran butt-kickers.

You want that lay-up? Pay the price. You want to dunk that ball? You'd better be ready to take the fall. You want to guard our PG? Eat the pick. You want that rebound? You'd better be willing to fight for it.

If the Portland Trailblazers can bring that kind of dominant, physical brand of basketball to the court every night this year, I guarantee we'll be winning a championship THIS YEAR.

Where has my draft day obsession gone? I just can't seem to work up the enthusiasm to scavenge the web for any tidbit of draft talk this season. Am I alone in that?

In 2006 I was all over the draft. I had my list narrowed down to two players we should draft. Brandon Roy was one, and a certain mustached player was another. This was my first real obsession with a draft and KP did me proud. Trade after trade went through and there was so much buzz about the Blazers it made SA Smith make one (another) assinine comment about the Blazers not knowing what they're doing. Every player that was named in that draft, I knew their strengths, weaknesses, and potential on the respective team. I obviously wasn't right on a lot of what I knew in retrospect, but at the time I felt like a real GM with instant understanding of why a team made a pick or a trade. Heady stuff.

I was watching intently in 2007 as we got Greg, but I had still done my due diligence on all the players.

In 2008, with the lower draft pick, it was even more important to do the research to find the gold nugget that might fall through the cracks. I did the research and knew it would be a KP day.

2009 had me digging even deeper because now we were searching for solid rotation players and not necessarily starters. Which player would compliment the roster and our style of play. I must admit I was bummed we passed on Blair. Getting a rebounding machine with offensive skills as a back-up PF is something you just do...even with knee issues. I'd rather have a fast burning candle that shines bright than a slow burner that never serves its purpose. In KP we trust though, right? Heck yeah!

2010 rolls around and the Blazers are limping to the playoffs like a great warrior that refuses to quit. KP has acquired Camby for spare parts and then locks him up for the next two years, before he's forced to bid on him in the FA market. Heck yeah!

Tom Penn gets fired without any explination. Smack!

KP looks lost and listless. Oh crud...

Larry Miller talks a lot, but says nothing. Shock.

Paul Allen. I'm at a loss. Where did the joy go? You went from a Hercules-like cleaning of the Augean Stables, litterally recreating the organization from the top down, to stumbling to a fall 100 yards before the finish line in a marathon. We went from dismal crowds to standing room only. Draft day incompetance to handling the NBA like a speed bag. Regular season futility to refusing to quit until the last whistle of the PLAYOFFS. Where did the joy go?

I've been a big fan of yours these last few years, Paul. I've even posted at least one THANK YOU PA thread. That's what makes the current situation so unfathomable. I don't want to lose faith in you because you resurected the one past-time I truely love to enjoy, but I'm deeply concerned with the path you've chosen to take. I don't know what you know, obviously, so let me tell you what we see out here.

Smack! Oh crud. Shock.......................................................................................................NOTHING.

Did they (KP & Tom) kill your dog? No. You'd have done something far less self destructive for revenge.

Did he hog the lime-light too much? What's new there? You needed a new face of the franchise that could reconnect the organization with the Portland community and he did that in spades. He's still doing it and spouting his praise of the BEST OWNER IN SPORTS! Take that Jerry Jones.

Did he try and massage the system to help a direct report (Tom Penn)? Maybe, but if you question his ethics why is he running your draft? Fire him for cause and replace him. Or simply run the draft yourself.

Did he anger the wrong people in the Vulcan Empire? Probably. If this is the case, Paul, I must question your perspective of the organizational structure. Go-getters should be given as much lattitude and creative freedom as possible because they get results. Bean-counters are there to SUPPORT people like that. Heck, they should be actively trying to aid and abet leaders like that. When you were writing code in the beginning, how many bean-counters were you listening to?

Take a step back and ask yourself what's important to you. Yes, it's a quazi-business but it's supposed to be fun for you. Is it fun now? What will make it fun again? Here's a suggestion:

Close yourself up with your draft gurus and talk basketball for 8-hours straight. I guarantee you'll be completely geek'd up again. Leave the business behind for a day and realize there is still joy in basketball. Ask forgivness if it's needed. Grant it if it's asked for. Group hug after. Open the door and call for a contract extension for KP and his staff. Don't take any backtalk. Get it done right then. Have a press conference where you say this: "I'd like to introduce the General Manager of the Portland Trailblazers, a personal friend whose earned and recently signed a two-year contract extension." Gracefully step aside after a hand-shake and watch YOUR draft pick go to work for you and this city.

I still have the hope of joy.

As I sit here writing these lines, trying to put into words the deep gratitude and sorrow I feel for all the lives sacrificed in our history and all the lives of our service men and women currently in harm's way, I am humbled.

How many lives have we lost too early? What could they have been had they lived? What would our world be like had they not been sacrificed?

I am reminded of the line from Edmund Burke:

All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.

Memorial Day is set aside to honor those who've fallen in the service of our country, but it is also a time for us, the beneficiaries of that sacrifice, to ensure that we (individually and as a country) are living up to the high ideals that are being defended. By raising the bar we ensure that their deaths were not in vain, and in so doing reduce the necessity for future sacrifice.

We would not seek a battle, as we are;
Nor, as we are, we say we will not shun it:
So tell your master. 

                   - Shakespeare Henry V Act III, scene VI.

 

How do you honor Memorial Day?

As a proud veteran, I spend the day at home with my wife enjoying a day of peace. Light the BBQ, play fetch with my dogs, soak up the overcast sky, and read a little BE. I cannot think of a better way to honor the sacrifice made than to bask in the freedom they've provided. Raise a glass with me and tell of your Memorial Day.

In my nerver ending quest to do no work while at work, I've been going over the strengths and weaknesses of each of our main players, trying to see who would mesh best with whom.

I can understand Roy. Who can't? He's a leader that can create his own shot but is unselfish enough to pass to the open guy when the time is right. He's smart enough to make the right decision at the right time. Simple. Build around that guy.

Oden, when healthy (don't start) is a beast. He's every point guard's dream; a big body in the post with soft hands and monster dunk potential. He can clean up weak defensive perimeter play with his agile feet and explosive blocking ability. Game changer. Got it.

Batum is like Inspector Gadget; he's got everything you want in one body. Need a 3pt shot? OK. Need a chase down block? OK. Need a monster put back dunk in Gasol's face? Heck yea. Get this kid a cape and he'll have his own comic book before the next season is done.

Aldridge is the next main guy. Sure he can hit that pick and pop on most nights. He'll even grab a few boards and block some shots. I just can't get past the fade-away jumpers. Left shoulder, right shoulder....fade-away jumper. Pretty when it goes in, but where are the consistent "and 1" fouls? He's not a bonus guy. Greg will score and get to the line, so will Roy, so will Bayless. But not LMA. Fade-away jumper. I've heard the explination that he's the ideal fit for when we've got Oden on the block because that will give both guys more room to work and the defense can't double. I call Bull-puckey on that. It may be accurate, but that don't make it right. The objective should be to pressure a defense and force them to react by either moving bodies or fouling. I've never seen a defense react to a jump shot in any other way than to look for the rebound. LMA needs to channel a little Magic Johnson.

Here's the play. Andre brings the ball up and passes to Roy. Roy initiates a move that immediately draws a double team, so he kicks it back to Andre who immediately sends it to the high post to LMA. LMA holds for a second for his defender to relax. He jab steps once, sets his feet like he's going for his patented fade-away. The defender knows to get a hand in his face so he closes the gap and jumps, but it was a fake. Instead of the jumper LMA sees the defender commit and puts the ball on the floor and heads toward the rim. Nothing flashy needed since he's already by his man. The only player that has a chance to stop him is busy guarding Greg on the low block.

Greg's defender sees his choice clearly; either he stays with his man, allowing LMA an uncontested demoralizing dunk or he leaves Greg unguarded to defend LMA. He opts for the latter.

LMA sees the choice and decision flash though the defender's eyes before he's even taken a second dribble. As the defender moves to reposition himself to contest the shot, LMA and Oden lock eyes.

Just as the defender's arms start to rise to defend the shot attempt, Oden prepares for the pass that LMA is bouncing towards him. Oden looks the ball into his hands and immediately rises into the air with both huge hands encapsulating the ball, lifting it higher with his arms even as his legs propel his entire frame into the air. Out of the corner of his eye, he can see his dumbfounded defender quickly trying to rotate back to block, but it's of little matter. The ball is now mere inches from the rim and there is no force in the universe that can stop him now.

Greg's universe has collapsed into a small half moon shape on a painted floor, where only the ball and the rim exist. Massive hands release their grip on the small orange orb and force it into the metal band. A faint vibration is felt in the corner of his mind as he allows gravity to once again rule the world.

Upon landing his senses explode again, taking in all the sounds and sights around him. The cheering crowds, the refs whistle of the shooting foul called, the defender lying on the floor a beaten man, and the exhilerated faces of his teammates as they rush to congratulate him. High-fives abound, but there is more work to do. The charity stripe awaits.

And if the defender doesn't leave Greg...Dunk it!

 

Que "Fanfare for the Common Man"

Up before Helios has mounted his chariot, I roll out of bed to the snap-crackle-pop of my joints. Age, that insidious tormentor is taunting me again but I will not yield. As I slowly uncoil my not so sleek frame I shuffle to the closet to don the apparel of the gods. My helmet, a red Blazer beanie as proof against the bitter, bitting cold. A chest plate of the Red & Black Fleece (cousin to the Golden Fleece), its majestic pinwheel a symbol of my allegiance. A simple pair of sweat pants is worn as a token of my humility and suffering. Finally, I slip into the shoes of the godess of victory, Nike. With each tug of my laces I pay hommage to the great warrior whose quest I go to undertake. I am at peace with my lack of worthiness, but I forge ahead nonetheless. As I pass through the gateway to my home I reach for the only true weapon at my disposal. A gift from Hercules, one of the Golden Apples of  Hesperides offers the Siren's song at my command. Inserting the buds into my soul, I take one last breath of warm air and walk out into the black abyss.

Knives made of ice pierce my lungs as the memory of warmth is slain. As I stumble from the buffet, I instinctively grasp the only weapon at hand. Quickly I dial the IPOD to a song from the past.

Que "Holding Out For A Hero" by Bonnie Tyler (ahh....the 80's)

As the Siren's call invades my soul, its elixir of youth restores my body and fierce determination. Slowly at first but with greater speed I launch myself into the darkness.

As I am overcome by The Song, I am shown visions of the past. Memories of great Blazer plays flash through my mind's eye to the beat of the song. Roy's Jordanesque move against Toronto, weaving in between players and going for the right handed layup but at the last moment switching to the left to avoid the block by Bosh. Aldridge running the floor for fast-break dunks. Rudy hitting a last second shot, stealing the inbounds pass and hitting a three at the buzzer. And of course Oden.

Memories and visions of Oden spark through my brain like lightning. So many highlight videos from high school and college. Potential was all it was. But now...now I saw what could be. Glimpses of a future close enough to feel. Delayed. The torment in my soul aches with that thought and reminds me why I'm here. Onward I go. 48 minutes until glory.

As the songs meld from one to the next a new vision erupts in my mind. A vision of the future.

Que “Six Million Dollar Man Intro”.

Oh yea.

Stay strong Greg, I'll donate some minutes.

 

 

 

What would happen if:

1. The team takes about 10 games to get one player off each night. The gameplan would equate to seeing how many ways Roy or Oden or any other single player could score in a given night. Let one player be selfish for one night and the rest of the team practice their sharing skills. Career nights for everyone!

2. The team picks three plays to run all...night...long. Tell the opposition exactly what's coming and see how successful they can be.

3. Only 3-point shots in a game. Golden State would be jealous. Rudy would be declared a god.

4. Play 'Seven Seconds Or Less' for one night...at least.

5. Blake and Miller put on Sumo suits and wage war at center court during a half-time show. Winner is declared the undisputed starter.

6. Oden is ordered to foul out in 30 seconds or less...and do it with gusto.

7. Burn points. The position that collectively gives up the most points to the opposition is required to buy Chalupas for the fans.

8. Everyone shoots free throws underhand.

9. If we win the opening tip, we deliberately score a basket for the other team. Spot them points.

10. Place a bounty to posterize a specific opponent, and let the fans know about it before tip-off.

Too much stress this early in the season. Go play.

 Is that you my friend? It has been a long time since we last met, and I fear you have found me in dire straights. The drought of Off-Season has tortured my mind, and I fear I may soon go mad. I am starving for the start of the new season. My soul is aching for the first word from training camp. I am awash in the sea of...nothingness, my only bastion of sanity the memories of last season. Let me take you on a journey through the thoughts of a madman.

The glorious arrival at the Oasis of Post-Season was as amazing as it was brief. The bittersweet twist of Fate that resulted in our contest with the Rockets of Houston in the first round was an unfortunate pairing, but ultimately may prove a blessing for the early lessons it taught our young warriors. Finesse and skill are fine traits to poses, but strength and toughness are to be prized in tandem.

Rarely are those traits seen in the young. They must first be tempered in the crucible of combat before they are honed to a fine edge that is both flexible and strong. Only one of our throng showed himself up to the challenge of the moment. Our Captain. Roy. He alone was able to confront the opposition and elevate his game in the face of all the forces arrayed against him. He is our leader. At his side others are poised to apply the lessons learned from Fate's hard tutorial.

Aldridge is the Lieutenant that may arise from the ranks to become a bulwark in the post and wing. Like a hawk, he can soar along the perimeter and attack close to the goal. He, amongst the host, has the greatest potential to fly this year.

The Spaniard is another with skills and talent continuing his training across the sea during the drought of Off-Season. If nothing else, he is a smarter man than I, for he at least is able to feed his hunger for THE GAME. But will his continuing experience grant him the needed toughness required for the challenges that lay ahead? This I do not know, my friend. His path has many possible branches, and we will not know which he will travel until Fate grants us the knowledge. Will he fight for the privilege of 30+ minutes per game, or will his defensive handicap keep him a sixth-man? In my dreams I hope that he will become a core of our band, but in my heart I fear his desires for individual glory will overreach his role and cause a rift that can only be mended through trade. I pray that my heart is wrong. Rudy is not the only young soldier in our band, however.

A young warrior from France is gaining prominence in an arena of significant need for our troop. Defense. As a youth, he was selected above all as the one possessing the defensive potential to halt the best among the league. Although defending may not gain the young man acclaim, among warriors the rank of Defensive Specialist is one that is highly honored. Too many times the young ones arrive with thoughts of offensive glory running through their heads, but they are quickly disabused of that notion. It is a hard road to unseat those offensive legends that bedeck the highlight reals of the four-letter network. But there is a rare exception that joins the ranks with a true will to frustrate the opposition, putting their whole will into foiling the well-laid plans of the foe. Even rarer is the player that can combine the fire for offensive glory with the strength and heart to stand against the tide of the opposition's onslaught on defense. Aside from Aldridge, Batum has the fire to become a great Trail Blazer. His defensive abilities can only be overshadowed by the hulking presence that will vie for the position of our starting center.

Oden. Much has been written and spoken about this young man. My head and heart are together when they say that he will be better, but not the greatest. He doesn't have to be. The fog of my insanity dissipates when I conjure the fate of Oden. Time and time again the Fates reveal to me a behemoth of a man that destroys an enemy's attempt to dominate the paint. We may not win the battle, but we will never lose the war. This trait alone is worthy of the #1 pick upon which he was bestowed. The flair for offensive talent is in the rightful hand of our Captain, which he has already proven he is worthy to hold. The defensive battle is one that should be fought by those with the aptitude and desire to dominate on that end of the floor. Oden is that prodigy. With a renewed lust for life and the desire to rip the heart out of any enemy offense, this defensive wunderkind is about to announce himself to the NBA in a way not seen since the days of the legendary Bill Russell in his prime. Many will feel these are the ravings of a madman, but they are the prophecy of The Hedge. So it is written, so it shall be done. I am but the Oracle. Pay heed, for the power of this prophecy is great.

The Fates have spoken upon the futures of both Outlaw and Webster. Outlaw will be sent to other lands to play for lesser kings. Although many will mourn his loss, both he and our band will flourish with the change. Outlaw will bring a new spirit to the group he joins and will propel them to the playoffs; a height they'd not seen in many seasons. They will fall far short of the finals, but he will be hailed as a great warrior for his deeds. Our Trail Blazers will not reap the immediate returns many would expect, but the speed of their progress will accelerate. The true seed of the trade will flourish in the future and will bear fruit when we are most in need.

Webster will rejoin our band after a long absence without missing a beat. Unfortunately, his ability to elevate his performance is gone and he becomes a role-player. Although his value to the team is high, he will never live down the "could have had Chris Paul" chants. Fortunately for our clubhouse, Webster doesn't read sporting news and is not aware of the unwarranted criticism. His play off the bench will be directly responsible to at least two Portland championships and comparisons to the legendary Big Shot Rob for his timely shots and veteran defensive plays.

My gaze is obstructed when I attempt to look upon the outcome of the Blake/Miller fight for starting position. My head says Miller, but my heart is silent. Take that as you will, for even I do not know where this will eventually end.

These flashes of foreknowledge seem to be expanding as I'm getting more revelations from the Fates. Bayless, will remain as a Blazer, but will see limited time. Much like a volcano, he will sleep and bide his time; honing his skills. When he is unleashed upon the league, he will make his name known. In two years he will challenge Roy for the main scoring option. Never will he be the distributor that we hope. Roy will fulfill that need as the team evolves, and as a true Captain, becomes what his team needs most.

Joel will be supplanted by Oden and will eventually relocate to another team with a greater chance to play, but he will never find lasting team-success on the field of battle. He will have a long career of veteran ability, but will ultimately end his career without a title. This will not matter to him in the slightest. He is a warrior that knows he left his heart on the court. No regrets. He will retain fond memories and move on with his life and family, and forever he will be remembered in Portland for his contribution in building a championship and teaching the younger players what it takes to be a true competitor and champion.

The visions have gone, and I am once again left bereft of basketball. Being alone with my thoughts is unbearable without the occasional dose of Dave and Ben. How many times can I listen to a podcast before my heart knows the words in advance? Once. I have devolved into a sponge of Blazer rumor and fan-hype. If I was at least able to know that the upcoming season was viewable in HD on Comcast, I would be mollified, but alas, that isn't the case. I'm outside the realm of Comcast, and as such am unable to see the Blazers in HD for every game. My misery grows with every recount of my torture.

I must close now and drown my sorrows in more spirits. May I find oblivion before the sun comes up and so spare myself another day of forced abstinence.

You are welcome to share my dwelling for the night, my friend, but I fear you will not find the comfort of spirits before you slumber. I am well ahead of you on that score and have drained the small supply I keep on hand in order to deaden the pain and keep the madness at bay. The Fates speak more clearly and I can pretend so much easier in this inebriated state. Do not think less of me, for I am just a man. Rest well, my friend. My your dreams be untroubled, and your tomorrow serene.

 

KP, I'd like to apply for the position of Overpaid Free-Agent. I'd love to play (sit on the bench) for Portland next season. You need not shmooze me, I'll be more than happy to suit up for the Red & Black Attack.

I admit that my 5' 10" 175lb frame isn't long,  I'm not freekishly athletic, and I haven't been bouncy since I was a toddler on my daddy's knee. But I do have what nobody else does: I can shag balls, tote luggage, fetch donuts, make people laugh until milk spews from their nose...ah did I mention I can fetch donuts? OK, so maybe one or two other people in the world can do that kind of thing, but how many of them REALLY want to be a Blazer? Huh? Huh?

If my incredible locker-room personality doesn't seal the deal, let me offer one other tidbit. It would really be a wake-up call to other NBA teams and players if you spent your cap-space on someone with zero professional or college experience simply because he loves Portland and the team. That would be an awesome press conference. You could even time it so it airs at prime-time on the East Coast. You know, so Hedo is watching. So, you think you're too good for Portland? Fine, we'll spend our money on someone that will be a great representative for the team. Heck, you could even put me into a game to go thug on the opposition a bit. Denver does that with Kenyon Martin, afterall. I know I've got more passion for the game than he does.

Finally, I'd accept a one-year deal. There's no need to have this year's cap-space disappear, never to be seen again. Simply sign me to a one year deal for what you've got to spare, and I become a valuable trade chip that you could part with and not hurt your core group. You'd miss me after I'm gone, but fear not. I'll come back to the Rose City once my NBA career comes to an end. If I happen to head for the Hall of Fame, I'll demand to be inducted as a Blazer. I'll even let you retire my jersey. See, I'm a giver.

It's a win-win-win, KP. You get cap flexability, you get to stick it to the FA market, and you get a high-character player that fits your culture. So, what do you say?

 

Hello, my name is Steve, and I'm an addict.

      Hi, Steve!

I don't know how I managed to sink this low. I thought I'd had it under control. It's been almost a year since I last touched the stuff, and I tought I could handle it. One little taste, you know? A small trade to use that trade exception was all I was after. I wasn't trying to get LeBron or CP3 or anyone all-star-ish, just a small nip to whet the appetite of my inner GM. I couldn't handle it.

Before I knew what was happening, I'd managed to waste an entire day at work believing I was doing right because Paul Allen had said "Go for it." I delved into the permutations like a fish to water, ignoring the real world for my supreme fantasy of GM-dom (geeky, I know). A friend of mine finally snapped me out of it, but it was really close. I was almost lost forever. I don’t know if I’m fortunate or not, but I still remember the dream I had before I woke up.

Talent consolidation:

Trade w/ Charlotte- Outlaw, Webster, Sergio, and #24 & #38 for Gerald Wallace.

Trade w/ Chicago- Blake for Hinrich. Takes place after July 1 (new salary year & we’ll have cap space for lopsided trade), and assumes that Chicago retains Ben Gordon.

C- Oden/Przybilla

PF- LMA/(Pendergraph or Victor Claver with #33 pick)

SF- Wallace/Batum

SG- Roy/Rudy

PG- Hinrich/Bayless

Sprinkle a few veteran minimums for emergency need, and that’s it.

Was it worth the trip?

Feel free to get your FIX in the comments.

It's a cliche saying that the playoffs are a different season. Teams step up their games to a new level of intensity with the finish line to the marathon in sight. Physical play is the standard and not the exception, which raises a couple questions:

1. Will the refs be more lax when calling touch fouls on Oden come playoff time?

2. Have the Blazers, as a team, earned enough "toughness credit" from the refs to get neutral rather than unfavorable calls?

 

I'd hope to see Oden make a positive impact in the playoffs, a part of the season he was brought in to effect. Guard play can get you to the playoffs, but solid post play wins games once you're there. If Oden is able to play without fearing the whistles, we could see the dominant center combination that we glimpsed during the regular season.

I believe the Blazers have developed a bit of demonstratable toughness since the All-Star break. Senior NBA official Dick Bavetta was reffing the LA game where the Blazers as a team made a stand against the evil empire. I believe that we earned a bit of respect from him in how we handled that, and that such respect will spread and pay dividends come playoff time. I don't think we'll see any star treatment, but I think we'll see fewer obvious bad calls.

Poll

Will refs lighten up on Oden's touch fouls?

41%

Yes

57 votes

58%

No

82 votes

139 votes | Poll has closed

 

Come in from the storm, Traveler. The sand is lashing with a fury, and you look as if you could use a moment to gather yourself before we reach the All-Star Oasis.

 

Sit. Rest yourself. Take stock of yourself and tomorrow we will continue the journey together.

 

In years past this pilgrimage didn't seem so difficult because the weight of expectations were lighter. Victory was always a goal, but never taken for granted. With the addition of our newest warriors has come a greater weight and expectation to succeed. Each misstep is scrutinized in detail, and each success is bloated. It would seem that expectations for the young ones have gone from realistic to impossible with no middle ground for growth and development.

 

Does a tree rise to fight the wind from a single seed overnight? No. Time and testing is needed for it to reach the full blossom intended. The roots must be planted deeply for it to hold fast against the onslaught it must face each day. Those roots take time to set, and are unseen. Unseen, but crucial. It is the strong roots that allow the tree to stand against the raging tempest and provide shelter to us in times of need.

 

The flexibility of a sapling is a necessity when young. Though it can be the cause of unpredictability and inconsistency as it is tossed by the winds, it allows the young tree to survive the battle with the wind and gain in wisdom. As time passes the core gains in strength, the roots sink deep, and the tree learns to stand against the wind without fear.

 

Was it only last season that we were thrilled with our progress and promise of the future? Has so much changed? No. We have seen glimpses of true greatness from many of our warriors. Glimpses, but little consistency. With the steadying hand of our captain much of the turmoil has still resulted in victory, but time is still needed to develop the other members of our clan. With that development, however; a profound greatness could be in the making.

 

Whoooooooshhhhhhhh!

 

Easy my friend. That was simply a gust of trade talk. There is little we can do to battle them. They arise unseen and unbidden to distract us from our journey. They are a nuisance and mean little to our true core. Once we pass the Trade Deadline Mountains the force of their bluster is spent.

 

Time is all we need. It's the simplest thing to say, yet is so difficult to practice. Time.

 

I pray for patience. I will pray for you as well my friend.

 

Stay and rest, for tomorrow our journey continues to the All-Star Oasis. After that we shall fight the wind together on our journey to the Oasis of Playoffs. Long has it been since I've tasted its waters.

Thank You--

Paul Allen: For putting your money where our heart is.

Kevin Pritchard & Front Office: For your ability to bake a cake.

Coaching Staff: For teaching and learning.

Wheels & Tone: For calling it so we can see it and feel it.

Fans: For rocking the Garden.

Players: For being our family.

From the top down, this team has found it's direction and is developing a winning identity that resonates with fans of the game. Such effort and dedication deserves to be recognized and applauded.

 

Happy New Year, Rip City!

 I'm less interested in pointing a finger than I am with finding a course through this minefield. At this point it looks as if there will be no agreement between Comcast and the satelite companies (and Charter). That will be two years without an agreement. Two years. It's time the Blazer organization takes action. I believe there is an opt-out clause in the agreement, but I've yet to hear any specifics regarding the terms and conditions under which such a clause might be executed.

 

Following the money: The Blazers.

The Blazer organization is looking for cash to boost their bottom line, but that's not all. They're also trying to establish a loyal fan following. The Blazers have always had a good percentage of die-hard fans, but those aren't the ones that make NBA teams the big money. It's the casual fan that is the true revenue maker because there are so many more of them. Hundreds of thousands more.

 

The Blazers have invested a lot of time and effort in building a team that everyone can be proud to root for, but they're now having their market limited by their Comcast deal. Whether it's the fault of Comcast or not, it's that deal that has hampered the ability of many would-be fans from being able to follow the team when they're not on national TV.

 

Though the Comcast deal has benefited the bottom line of the Blazer organization to the tune of $10 million per year, they are loosing out on the real revenue generator...fan participation.

 

Following the money: Comcast.

Big risk equals big reward. Before the Blazers won big in the lottery Comcast was willing to bet heavily on the Blazer organization, outbidding the standard $4 million per year that Fox had been offering. In addition Comcast would establish a new channel with the Blazers as the cornerstone along with other Oregon-centric sporting events. No longer would we be the step-child of Seattle sports options. Similar to Field of Dreams, if you build it, we will watch. We will DEMAND it. They did it. And now they want a return on their investment. I can't blame them for that mentality, but I can blame them for shortsightedness and questionable business expectations.

 

Comcast wants what it wants because it believes that's what it's worth. That's where they've made their mistake. Much like die-hard fans overvalue their players on the trade market, Comcast has overvalued it's product outside Oregon. It's not hard to understand why the smaller cable companies have agreed to Comcast's deal. They have a larger portion of their subscription base wanting to root for the Blazers. With smaller companies, it's easier for a few voices to be heard when asking for a certain product. Comcast ASSUMED the same deal would work for everyone. Wrong!

 

Now Comcast is stuck. They've gotten almost everyone in their service area to switch that was really going to, but that isn't anywhere near making this a cost-effective deal for them. $10 million per year plus the costs of running their own sports channel is a big undertaking that requires a broad revenue base. Seattle's loss of the Sonics has likely been an unforeseen bonus for Comcast as it seeks to expand it's subscriber base. What are the odds Seattle people would switch from satelite just to watch the Blazers? Low. I don't expect that to stop Comcast, however. They will likely wait out the current season to see how many more homes they can squeeze before they reconsider their position.

 

Following the money: Satelite companies

Portland Who? Jail-Blazers? When was the last time they were in the playoffs? Please buy NBA League Pass for only $189.00 for the entire season. Catch every game from the comfort of your own home (except the ones you really want).

 

The large satelite companies have no interest in being all things to all markets. Remember how long it was before they offered local channels? Direct TV and Dish aren't headquartered in Oregon, and likely don't realize the demand. A few hundred calls or e-mails won't move an entrenched bureaucracy when they think in terms of millions of viewers and not thousands. It's that mindset that will prevent any substantial shift in their negotiation position.

 

Following the money: Fans

In this trying economy, I cannot fathom why companies wouldn't be trying everything in their power to get my money, especially when I tell them exactly what I'd be willing to pay for.

 

I want to watch the Blazer games on TV, and I'm willing to pay for it!

 

Take my money...please!

 

Conclusion:

The Blazers haven't gotten to the breaking point yet, though they should have by now. Don't confuse a sold out Rose Garden with adequate marketing. So many dollars are being left on the table, it's not even funny.

 

Comcast has found that it can dictate terms in their pond, but in the big ocean they're just another sucker fish hanging around the large sharks. They've painted themselves into a corner with this deal, and the only way out that's profitable is to stick to their guns.

 

Satelite providers are trying to meet national expectations rather than market-centric demands. They don't have any incentive to cave to Comcast's demands. Even if every satelite subscriber in Oregon were to cancel their service out of frustration, they would hardly even notice the blip.

 

Fans are, as always, left to the mercy of outside forces. Frustrating as this ongoing saga has become, I've come to terms with the fact that I'll be watching only ESPN and TNT feeds of the games and listening to Wheels when those aren't an option.

 

It's a shame nobody wants my money.

Training camp is done, and we've had a chance to see how the rookies for each team have done in the preseason. What have you seen, and what are your expectations?

1. Rose. He got game. Sure, he'll be inconsistent, but he has shown the flashes that make fans stand up and shout.

2. Beasley. Odd. Big-O, little-d, very little-d. Zach Randolph with better elevation and speed.

3. Mayo. This year's Kevin Durant. He'll shoot a lot, and lose a lot.

4. Westbrook. The reach of the draft. Seems like a Leandro Barbosa clone. Great straight-line speed, but lacks the lateral quicks and court awareness needed in a PG. I bet they wish they'd picked Bayless to put alongside Durant. Those two together would have been devistating in a few years.

5.  Love. Hmmmm. Can make an impact, but I would have expected him to be a starter during preseason. He didn't. Mayo did.

6. Gallinari. Broken. Not a good start. Just ask Oden.

7. Gordon. Good potential. Came off the bench and had some really impressive games and a couple ho-hummers.

8. Alexander. There's a little something there, but it was hard to see in the preseason. Late bloomer?

9. Augustin. Will see plenty of action due to his playing style. He may even become the starter this season.

10. Lopez. He's big. He's starting. He hasn't had a positive +/- yet. Doh!

11. Bayless. The Summer League MVP has the individual game, but needs to learn how to be a member of a team. With Coach Nate's help, he'll become a true game changer. Not this year though.

12. Thompson. Better than I'd expected. He can rebound well and score some garbage points. He seems a bit spotty on defense, but there's potential there.

13. Rush. Only two good preseason games. Both when he came off the bench. Once against a Memphis team he struggled against in a previous game. He's got role player written all over him.

14. Randolph. Better than expected in the preseason, but Nellie won't play him when the games count. Just ask any other rookie whose played for him.

One more bit of random speculation generated in an effort to kill the next few days.

I’d like to discuss the Psychology of Jerryd Bayless. I’ve been watching him. No, not stalking. I’ve simply been watching his interactions as best I could, and I’ve come to a few loose conclusions. I’d be interested in hearing other opinions.

 

Situational Awareness. That is Jerryd’s Kryptonite. He wants to win, and he’s always been the best player on the floor. That has resulted in him developing tunnel vision to some extent. His first instinct is to create his own shot, using his teammates as needed for him to score. That style of play has been reinforced throughout his college experience as well as in summer league. Does that mean that he is always going to shoot? No, but it does mean that his situational awareness seems limited to himself and his defender. There are moments where teammates create an obvious situation of advantage that he can recognize, but any assist seems due to his inability to create a shot, rather than an attempt to set-up a player. Is that a new interpretation of Jerryd? I don’t think so. It seems to be agreed that he is a shoot-first type of playmaker. Much like Kxbe, Jerryd wants to dominate the opponent, not just win. That killer instinct is needed on this team, but even more importantly is the multiplier effect a good set-up man brings.

 

Brandon Roy is a great set-up man. He’s tall enough to see the court well, skilled enough to get his own shot when needed, and intelligent enough to use the other players on the floor to get the TEAM an optimal shot attempt. IMO he’s the new version of Jason Kidd or Magic Johnson. It’s that multiplier effect that not only makes Roy great, but makes those around him better than they would be with another player.

 

It’s undeniable that Jerryd is a baller. The question becomes, how do you put him in a position to take advantage of his abilities while at the same time maximizing the abilities of the players around him? The answer? Practice. Practice. Practice. For now, put him up against Sergio for minutes as the back-up PG for in-game experience. He should be a strong plug-in player capable of coming in to instantly put any defensively weak PG on his heels, create havoc in the paint, and basically do what Jack did last season with better results (hopefully).

 

In practice, he should be added to Nate’s group of pupils for personal training. Nate should be able to turn his raw abilities into something honed and infinitely more dangerous by helping him trust that his teammates will dominate for him. He needs to learn that his true power lies in his mind and his ability to recognize offensive/defensive patterns and act accordingly. By using his mind he can harness the power of his teammates to exploit one weakness in the opposition’s defense, creating a higher percentage shot attempt than he would have been able to accomplish alone. If he has the mental bandwidth to process that much information he’ll be unstoppable. At the moment, however, his situational awareness seems to be that of a rookie needing more experience and knowledge. That’s not a negative for Jerryd, it’s a fact of life for any rookie coming to the NBA after a single season of college. If Jerryd works at the TEAM part of his game as hard as he did his individual skills, he’ll put Chris Paul to shame in three years.

 

Is that a fair estimation, or am I reading too much into this?

 

 

With the rain, my Blazer drought is coming to an end. It was like trying to subsist on nothing but Skittles. Sure it's great for a week or so, but soon you actually miss things like meat and potatoes (not veggies). I've read every article (and written a few) about the Blazers, sucking the last molecule of Blazermania from my computer monitor. In a remarkably short time the sustenance was insufficient to ahhhh....sustain me. I needed more. I needed something...substantial (didn't see that coming did you). Today was the day I'd get something new. Although an intra squad scrimmage is like having pizza rather than skittles, at least it was something better than the hype and rumor I've been forced to survive on.

After slogging home through Friday traffic among a bunch of "Oregonians" that forgot how to drive in rain, I was greeted at home by my barking puppy, my loving wife, and...my radio.

The voice of Brian Wheeler filled my headphones as I laid my head on a pillow. Eyes closed, I transported myself into the Rose Garden to experience the scrimmage. The real world tried to intrude many times during his show, but I battled valiantly to remain connected. Brief flashes of exhilaration flooded me as I watched what Wheels projected for my mind's eye. And then it ended.

I'd waited so long. So long. Through an off-season that saw the Fakers going to the Finals, thereby making them tainted and unwatchable (until they lost). I made it through the draft, the Olympics, and summer league, but none of them were real. They were all ghostly shells of the real thing. Now, when I finally get a chance to hear a live game, I'm foiled because it ended before the half.

Although I was actually craving more of a play-by-play from Wheels, I found the interviews entertaining. So, why did it end before the half? Am I the only one that feels despondent? It's like being in a jet that's been granted clearance to take off. The engines are kicked to full, and right before the brakes are released and you go barreling down the runway they shut the engines off. All that build-up and no release. Hmmm. Maybe I should stop the analogies there.

Now I'm forced to vent my frustrations until Tuesday. This is going to be a really long weekend. Well, at least I've got my in-laws coming over. Yee-haw....not really.

P.S. Comcast, did you get my e-mail? I meant it. My wife will NOT be happy if you don't get a deal done. Trust me, you do NOT want to make her mad. Big. Green. Scary. Get the idea?

Greetings, Traveler.

 

The journey through the wastelands of Offseason have been unusually difficult this year. Any scrap of sustenance is so treasured and yet so quickly gone, leaving us feeling our hunger even more.

 

Please, where are my manners? Sit. Rest yourself, for though your journey has been hard, a great ordeal is yet before you. Relax and drink your fill before you depart once again, and I will regale you with a tale.

 

It was only a year ago that we shared this time together, basking in the glow of Greg Oden’s future with our young team. The storm that brought his season to a halt was initially devastating to the morale of the people, but from that heartache arose a true player. A young captain assumed the mantle of leadership and carried the band of warriors on a march to glory that exceeded all expectations.

 

For a shinning month our players were a force to rival the elite teams in the league, going undefeated in thirteen straight contests, and tasting victory in seventeen of eighteen battles. That stretch of success set the tone for the young core throughout the rest of the long season. Although wins were harder to find near the end, the battles were always hard-fought, and the confidence that victory was possible sustained them.

 

Our young captain’s leadership and abilities garnered the attention of commanders throughout the league, and he was named to a select group of men called All-Stars. Although being selected as an All-Star carries great honor, the manner in which he was selected carried the greater weight. For it was the commanders of the opposing teams that selected him as worthy, and not the often absurd popularity contest some other selections were.

 

With success comes greater expectations, and in this we are no different. With the imminent return of Oden and the arrival of the great foreigner from across the sea, our expectations of this band of men have increased. And with those increased expectations, our patience to wait for the season to begin has left us. Although the draft and summer league provided a temporary outlet for our passion, it was a pale shadow compared with what we see on the horizon.

 

As the day of training camp approaches we try to harness our emotions and bring back to reality our hopes and aspiration, but that is difficult with all the promise and potential we see before us.

 

As you build your strength before facing these long days of Blazer starvation ahead, take solace in the fact that the results will be far more sweeter having persevered. Though the road will seem longer this year, there will be points along the way that will give you succor. The Olympics will feature many basketball games, and our great foreign player will be among them. It may not be much, but it should provide more food for thought than the you-tube highlights. Once the Olympics end, the first of our players will begin arriving for pre-training camp. With that, the drought should end and a regular stream of information will be available. Beware the two-edged sword, however. The added knowledge may drive you insane with anticipation.

 

Sleep now Traveler, for tomorrow your journey continues.

 

Mr. Stern,

 

I realize you’re having a difficult time keeping your dictatorial hold upon the league as more and more people question your god-given right to rule, but I thought I’d offer up a few thoughts that could help you hold onto power before the revolution hits. So, here goes:

 

1. Rather than coddling the NCAA and requiring players to be a year removed from high school, allow ANY high school graduate/GED holder to enter the draft. If a player isn’t selected in the draft, the NCAA will still let them play. If they don’t, all those kids will head to Europe to play, and then where would college basketball be?
2. Allow NBA teams to put more than two players onto an NBDL team’s roster. It takes a while to teach a player, and teams have about two per year added to their rosters. Think of it as a four-year trade school, where you’re paying your students to learn, while at the same time profiting by displaying their developing skills (See NCAA without the attitude).
3. Change the rules so the players in the NBDL don’t count against the parent team’s roster space. Watch out now, you might actually have a true farm system developing here. This would allow NBA teams to build entire back-up teams and develop numerous players to NBA-level talent without diluting the NBA games.
4. Get rid of the restriction limiting the seniority of the players that can be sent down. Even veteran players could benefit from rehabbing an injury in the minors. If nothing else it’s a great place to stash malcontent players like Stephon Marbury, or simply being able to use the threat to coerce the desired response. You know how that goes, right?
5. Increase the number of draft rounds to 3. This will be a big bonus for your attempt to make the league global as more foreign players will be tabbed in the third round to flesh out a team’s NBDL team.

 

These simple steps would allow you to revitalize the NBA by improving the product and at the same time expanding the audience. Now instead of American players going overseas to play in Europe, it will once again be everyone wanting to get drafted by an NBA team. They might not get called up right away to play on the big stage, but that will only increase the relevance and popularity of the NBDL teams and especially the NBA.

 

The NBA: Where World Domination Happens!

I was getting ready to write a nice piece on how the addition of GO and Rudy in addition to the other player's off-season improvements would increase our points per game by as many as +15. I even did a complete "what-if" spreadsheet to guage the incrimental changes and the effects they would have. I tossed it because we already have a real-life model (with historical data) to look at...the San Antonio Spurs.

 

Did you know the San Antonio Spurs and the Portland Trail Blazers each scored 7,820 points during the 2007-2008 regular season? The Spurs ended the season 56-26, while the Blazers finished at 41-41. What’s the difference?

 

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p3KBVMkclWFgBfzMXDdyGMQ

 

Things that stand out to me:

1. The Spurs are very efficient shooting the 2pt shot at 48.69%. Comparatively, the Blazers shot just 46.82%. That’s a difference of 1.87%, which equates to 2.33 points per game.
2. The Spurs take a lot more 3pt shots and aggressively defend against it. Even though they shot a poorer percentage than the Blazers(36.89-37.73), they shot it well enough. More importantly, their opponents took 383 fewer attempts and converted only 34.23% of the time. The Spurs margin over their opponents in 3PT shots was +6.37 points per game. To put that into perspective, the Blazer’s margin against their opponents was +0.18 points per game. DAAAAANG!
3. The Spurs get back on defense rather than fight for the offensive rebound, and they aggressively fight for the defensive rebound. Although SAS and PTB both end with similar total rebound numbers, their philosophies seem opposite. This may have to do with Portland’s use of the Zone Defense making it difficult to get the defensive rebound since the players are out of position to properly box-out, but it could also be that SA values getting back into their defensive posture more than the chance at getting the rebound and the risk of letting a fast break opportunity score against them. This would seem the ideal defensive decision to negate the uptempo offense.
4. The Spurs make their opponents play 1 on 5. Looking at the assist numbers, the disparity is marked (1718-1490). That’s a difference of 2.78 assists per game! Comparing that to the Blazers, we have a +0.23 assist per game margin. This is likely due to better man-to-man defense, where there is an emphasis on denying the pass, and forcing the ball handler onto an island.
5. The types of turnovers versus the quantity of turnovers. Looking at the numbers, both teams had about the same total number (PTB1056-SAS1035). I found the offensive foul number eye opening. We committed 153 while SA committed 117. But, we drew 178, while they drew 153. That tells me that with more experience, our PGs will know not to use the picks until the pick is set (Looking at you Sergio). It also tells me that we were at least mildly aggressive attacking the basket. Are the Spurs really floppers? It sure looks that way when you watch them on TV, but we drew more offensive fouls than they did.  In that case, it was tactical skill and gamesmanship. A little tightening on the ball handling would really improve us (ie Jack and stepping out of bounds).
6. The Spurs never foul anyone, just ask them (88 fewer fouls per season). The Blazers OTOH always seem to foul when the shot is going up. On the plus side, they’ve learned to get a shot off when the whistle blows in their favor. The net effect is that we take almost as many as we give. The Spurs are similar, but they’re on the positive side of the statistic, while we’re slightly negative.

So, where do we go from here? There are several areas where I expect to see changes due to personnel moves and strategy changes. With the addition of GO to the starting line-up and Joel fortifying the second unit, we’ll have true centers in both units which should increase our rebounding both offensively and defensively. Greg’s presence in the post should allow for higher percentage shots from point blank range (points in the paint), and create more wide open 3pt opportunities for James, Roy, Steve, Martell, Travis, Rudy, etc. With the improved rebounding and the addition of Rudy, I expect the see us push the tempo a bit more and try to get more transition buckets before defenses are set. Although the zone defense and its variants were one of the things that helped us through that winning streak last season, I expect (or at least hope) that we’ll have improved enough individually to play more man-to-man defense.

 

It won’t take much to improve from an average team to an elite team. A few more possessions, one more block, one more steal, a few more rebounds, a couple more open 3s, one percent more shooting percentage, and running the opposition off the 3pt line. That’s the difference between 41 wins and 56 wins.

 

What do the numbers tell you? What areas will we see improvement at, and how will that translate to our number of wins?

 

 

 

*I've gathered the statistical data from the team's home pages as well as 82games.com. Where there were discrepancies, I defered to the team's data.

 

**I've created the 2 point columns to better illustrate the differences in shots and efficiency.

Sergio Interview?

Hoopshype.com had this link and a translation, but I'd like to ask Amlmart1 to check it. We've seen how other sites can misconstrue a quote and give it a different vibe. 

If the quote is accurate, I'd be worried about the attitude of Sergio coming into the season. Will he use this as motivation to improve his game, or will he expect to be handed minutes? It's too early to say when ego's are bruised, but it seems like he'd welcome a change of scenery.