SB Nation User Blog: Steve in Napa

Beating a Dead Horse

Steve in Napa — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 17:41:09 -0000

I've been doing alot of reading here this year and almost no posting.

I was thinking about this season and found that perhaps the best gauge for my '08 fandom is how long it is taking me to watch a Tivo'd A's game.

Pre All Star I was watching every inning of every game. Probably investing a couple of hours on each game. I now find myself (yesterday is a good example) starting the recording and moving through it on the fastest fast forward ( I watched Gio's first inning though). The game took about 15 minutes to "watch".

My 12 year old son's reaction to the A's is another gauge. Early in the season he'd ask if the A's won, what the Angels did, and how many games behind we were. That morphed into "did the A's win". Now he just asks "another loss?".

I've been trying to explain Beane's strategy to him--and I've managed to get him excited about Gio and Carlos and to a lesser extent Patterson and Pennington. He now also knows about Anderson, Cahill, Carter, Mazzaro etc.

We've gone to a couple of River Cats games.

But, none of this really addresses just how bad this season has become.

The A’s lost their 10th consecutive series on Sunday, tying an Oakland record set in 1979.

Since the All Star break, Oakland is 5-23, a winning percentage of .179, putting the team on pace for the worst second half ever. The 1943 Philadelphia A’s went 15-61 in the second half, a winning percentage of .197.

If we continue to start Braden and insist on continuing to reinforce to Dan Meyer that he is less than a Major league pitcher, if we continue to try to find some magic in Jack Hanahan's swing, to bat Jack Cust 3rd or 4th, to trot Emil Brown out there as a "cleanup hitter" etc. my finger will remain firmly on the fast forward button--in fact, if I could find a faster speed for it.....

Second Half and Bring Him Up

Steve in Napa — Fri, 13 Jul 2007 17:33:55 -0000

This is the time of the season when teams decide whether they are "buyers" or "sellers" as the trade deadline nears. It was interesting to see Omar Minaya and Kenny Williams talking in the stands at the All Star game earlier this week. When asked whether he was a "seller" or a "buyer" this year, considering the White Sox weak first half, Williams said "we are both...we are always both."

After my initial reaction that his statement was political and lame, I realized that there was truth in it. General Managers are always analyzing their rosters, looking to make some moves for "right now" and others with an eye on 2008, 2009 etc. At AN we have mostly assumed that Billy Beane is a master at this (especially after reading Moneyball) and we’ve seen the results—great roster tweaks at the deadline more often than not.
This year might is arguably Beane’s most challenging. Faced with starting pitchers who have arguably "over-performed" in the first half and an offense that has "under-performed", a record breaking number of injuries, a record right around .500, an Angels team that is running away with the division and a vastly improved Seattle squad, Billy is caught in a situation he really hasn’t faced this decade. Yes, in the past he’s had similar records at the break—but he doesn’t have the same reasons for optimism for the second half he’s had in those years.
The fact is that it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the A’s 2nd half record is worse than the first half. Reasons? Just look at the rotation, the pen, and the lineup. Will Dan Haren duplicate his fantastic first half? Doubtful. Will Joe Blanton continue to have his best year? Maybe. Will Chad Gaudin struggle with his control? See last night. Will Lenny DiNardo continue to pitch to an ERA less than 3? No. Will we find a #5 starter? Maybe, depending on Loiaza’s return.
Will Huston Street be effective when he returns? Will Santiago Garcia Casilla continue to have an ERA less than 1? Did the rest on the DL help Kiko Calero? Is Joe Kennedy going to return to his bullpen form of last year?
Shannon Stewart may well continue to hit a weak .300, Chavy may miraculously find the world’s best acupuncturist, Jack Cust may be an Adam Dunn, but will Nick Swisher return to .290 or continue to sink to .250? Is there any way Bobby Crosby gets to .250? We all hoped the back surgery would "straighten out" Mark Kotsay—but straighten him out to what? .270 with little power? Maybe a bright spot (other than Cust) will be the continued emergence of Travis Buck.
So, what does Billy do? I think he HAS to look at next year. Without saying so, the A’s will be sellers this year. I suspect he’ll jettison Piazza, look to get value for DJ, look for a fifth starter, and add some more youth.
Speaking of youth, I always like to look at stats—especially with an eye toward finding players who are having breakout years. Yesterday, I found two. Two who are eerily similar, although one’s breakout is in MLB and the other’s is in AAA—take a look (stats through yesterday):
Player A (MLB): 295 AB, 50 R, 96 H, 22 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 45 RBI, 42 BB, 40 K, .325 BA, .420 OBP, .918 OPS
Player B (AAA): 325 AB, 52 R, 105 H, 29 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 44 BB, 38 K, .323 BA, .408 OBP, .894 OPS
I suspect AN knows who player B is...any guesses for player A?

Is Milton Bradley the REAL difference maker?

Steve in Napa — Fri, 25 Aug 2006 22:35:59 -0000

From ESPN today:

The A's, however, are 38-24 when Bradley starts games and 34-31 when he doesn't, a difference of 84 percentage points. Last year, the Dodgers were 36-37 when Bradley started, and 35-54 when he didn't, a difference of 100 percentage points. Coincidence?

Pretty amazing stat. A switch hitting presence in the middle of the lineup certainly has an effect.

Fodder for the Clubhouse Wall

Steve in Napa — Mon, 14 Aug 2006 16:16:06 -0000

The NY Daily News has an interesting article this morning about the Yankees problems with the Angels. Here are the last few paragraphs:

"The Yankees' ongoing struggles with the Angels are worth bearing in mind as the season plays itself out, since tonight isn't the last time they will face each other.

Besides the fact the Yankees have a three-game series in Anaheim Aug. 25-27, there remains a chance the teams will meet in the postseason. If the Yankees win the AL East and Boston takes the wild card - as has happened the past three seasons - the Bombers likely would face the West winner.

Oakland (65-52) leads the West by 4-1/2 games over the Angels. Clearly, the best-case scenario for the Yankees is for the A's to hang on, given that they've never won a playoff series (0-4) since Billy Beane became general manager in 1998.

Nothing ever seems to change in the West. The A's always make a second-half run. They never go deep into October. And the Angels never make it easy on the Yankees."

Injury Summary

Steve in Napa — Thu, 25 May 2006 22:11:54 -0000

This is from SI.com. The A's are ranked first in injuries suffered but the summary is GREAT:

"The big problems: The A's have one of the deepest pitching staffs in baseball, and they've needed every inch of it to stay afloat in the middling American League West. Rich Harden, Joe Kennedy, Esteban Loaiza and Justin Duchscherer all are sitting on the disabled list right now. Closer Huston Street was nursing a muscle strain in his chest earlier this season, though he never made it to the DL. The A's have had some hurting hitters, too, including Milton Bradley, Frank Thomas and Eric Chavez.

How they've handled it: Brad Halsey and Kirk Saarloos have filled in as starters with less-than-mixed results (3-4 between them, with a combined 5.06 ERA). Still, it's a measure of the team's pitching depth that the staff still is ranked fourth in the AL with a 4.47 ERA. That has kept the A's around .500.

Bottom line: Most of the pitchers should be back by the end of June. In the AL West, that makes the A's huge favorites."

A's to sign Thomas

Steve in Napa — Wed, 25 Jan 2006 20:28:21 -0000

I am really excited about this--stay healthy Frank!
Let the lineup debate begin: Ellis, Kendall, Chavez, Thomas, Bradley, Crosby, Kotsay, Payton, Swisher?

From espn: The Oakland Athletics and longtime Chicago White Sox slugger Frank Thomas have agreed to a deal, sources told ESPN.com's Buster Olney on Wednesday.

Thomas is expected to sign a one-year contract.

Who are these guys, really

Steve in Napa — Fri, 21 Oct 2005 18:32:47 -0000

Bill James introduced similarity scores for players nearly 15 years ago in his book The Politics of Glory (p. 86-106). To compare one player to another, start at 1000 points and then you subtract points based on the statistical differences of each player.
Batters

* One point for each difference of 20 games played.
* One point for each difference of 75 at bats.
* One point for each difference of 10 runs scored.
* One point for each difference of 15 hits.
* One point for each difference of 5 doubles.
* One point for each difference of 4 triples.
* One point for each difference of 2 home runs.
* One point for each difference of 10 RBI.
* One point for each difference of 25 walks.
* One point for each difference of 150 strikeouts.
* One point for each difference of 20 stolen bases.
* One point for each difference of .001 in batting average.
* One point for each difference of .002 in slugging percentage.

Let's take a look at Nick Swisher:
His 162 game average year (as compliled in Baseball Reference) is 560 AB 25 HR 88 RBI .238 BA and .325 OBP. Using Bill James methodology the most similar players are Adam Piatt 398, 12, 50, .248, .323; Jayson Werth 503, 17, 74, .245, .333; and Jack Voight 324, 11, 46, .235, .324.
And Dan Johnson: 557, 22, 86, .275, .355 correlates with George Scott 592, 22, 84, .268, .333; almost exactly with Bobby Murcer 571, 21, 89, .277, .357; Dusty Baker 565, 19, 80, .278, .347; and Wally Joyner 568, 16, 88, .289, .362.
When looking at possible changes for '06 I believe that upgrading RF, 1B and DH must be Billy Beane's priorities. While both Johnson and Swisher (especially Swisher) apparently have upside, the comparisons above don't speak to optimism.
Joyner and Scott were both leather wizards, and their teams made up for their lack of great power at other positions.
Voight and Werth are part timers, and, unfortunately, Swisher looks like he may be as well.

Poll

If you were Billy Beane where would you upgrade for '06

Other

3 votes

First Base

1 votes

Right Field

4 votes

DH

60 votes

68 votes | Poll has closed

Roids Suspects

Steve in Napa — Wed, 29 Jun 2005 20:20:16 -0000

Halfway through the first post-roids baseball season we are beginning to get a clearer picture of who the (potential) abusers might have been (like the self-indemnifying language?).
Here you go, this years stats are followed by last years:
Carlos Beltran 9 HR, 38 RBI, .265, 1 SB; 38 HR, 104 RBI, .267, 42 SB. Playing "injured" all year??

Todd Helton 6 HR, 31 RBI, .261; 32 HR, 96 RBI, .347. Not getting pitched to because he's surrounded in the lineup by rookies?

Aubrey Huff 5 HR, 38 RBI, .252; 29 HR, 104 RBI, .297 Notorious slow starter...but THIS slow?

Jim Thome 7 HR, 29 RBI, .215; 42 HR, 105 RBI, .274. Another slow starter but 7 HR??

Adrian Beltre 5 HR, 34 RBI, .257; 48 HR, 121 RBI, .334. I know, Safeco, but was he really just a one year wonder? If you're going to 'roid up wouldn't it be in your walk year?

Ivan Rodriguez 5 HR, 29 RBI, .294; 19 HR, 86 RBI, .334. Canseco mentioned him...could be?

Victor Martinez 8 HR, 32 RBI, .238; 23 HR, 108 RBI, .283. Sophmore jinx or lack 'o cream?

Mike Lowell 3 HR, 29 RBI, .222; 27 HR, 85 RBI, .293. Lowell is getting older, but 3 HR??

Sammy Sosa 9 HR, 26 RBI, .235; 35 HR, 80 RBI, .253. Say it ain't so Sammy.

Aaron Rowand 5 HR, 32 RBI, .280; 24 HR, 69 RBI, .310. Maybe not...

Randy Winn 2 HR, 22 RBI, .279; 14 HR, 81 RBI, .286

The Deals

Steve in Napa — Fri, 17 Jun 2005 15:59:51 -0000

From Rotoworld this morning:

The Tim Hudson deal is looking like a complete mess for the A's now that Juan Cruz has joined Charles Thomas and Dan Meyer at Triple-A (with Meyer on the disabled list). However, the Mark Mulder deal is looking better and better. Dan Haren is doing an excellent job stepping into Mulder's spot in the rotation, posting a 4.14 ERA in 87 innings. Mulder had a 4.43 ERA in 225.2 innings for the A's last season and has a 4.30 ERA in 83.2 innings for the Cardinals this year. Haren got off to a slow start and has a poor record because the A's don't score him any runs, but he is 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 25-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last five starts, dating back to May 26. Plus, he's costing the A's about $6 million less than Mulder would have.

What we've been watching so far

Steve in Napa — Fri, 13 May 2005 16:29:59 -0000

We know it can't go on much longer. Some of the A's have to break out of this ugly slump. I hope some home cookin' helps this weekend and next week. Here's a note from Rotoworld:

Exactly how bad has Oakland's offense been this season? They collectively have a batting line of .235/.313/.338. Among active players, the guys whose career numbers most closely resemble the offensive awfulness that the A's have put up are ... drumroll please ... Keith Osik (.231/.309/.323), Paul Bako (.240/.312/.332), and Andy Fox (.239/.324/.338). In other words, try to imagine a lineup full of nine Paul Bakos for a moment and realize that's what Oakland fans have been watching all year.