There has been a lot of talk about Liriano being inefficient, and this is commonly cited as a reason why he isn't in the upper tier of starting pitchers.

The first problem with this argument, is that Liriano isn't really that inefficient.  He is solidly in the top half of the league when it comes to pitches per inning.  I posted this on a thread, but here is a list (not a complete list) of pitchers who are less inefficient than Liriano.  

John Danks
Rick Porcello
Dan Haren
Matt Garza
Edwin Jackson
David Price
Gavin Floyd
Jon Lester
Cole Hamels
Tommy Hanson
Tim Lincecum
Ubaldo Jiminez
Josh Johnson
Justin Verlander
John Lackey
Gio Gonzalez
Phil Hughes

That's a pretty good list of pitchers.  Noone would dare say that Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jiminez, and Josh Johnson aren't "aces" because of their inefficiency, would they?

The only reason why he has the label of a guy who doesn't pitch into games, is because Gardy is very strict with pitch counts.  This SHOULD NOT be held against Liriano.  This is the same for all pitchers on the staff.

Even when we take into account his innings pitched, he is still really close to many of the "aces" of the league.  Sometimes when we look at innings pitched, we forget that the difference between 6.3 IP and 6.7 IP is just one out.  So I converted all qualified pitcher's IP/GS to number of outs.  Liriano, on average got 19 outs per start.  

Here is a list of qualified pitchers averaged 19 outs per start: (this, unlike the first list, IS complete)

Francisco Liriano
Chad Billingsley
C.J. Wilson
Clay Buchholz
Jason Vargas
Joe Blanton
Colby Lewis
Shaun Marcum
Max Scherzer
Cole Hamels
Hiroki Kuroda
Ryan Dempster
Randy Wolf
Mark Buehrle
Fausto Carmona
Matt Garza
Clayton Kershaw
Livan Hernandez
Dallas Braden
Tim Lincecum
Ted Lilly

Only one guy that most would call an "ace," but some very good pitchers on that list.  What about the guys who got one more out than Liriano?

Jon Lester
John Lackey
Bronson Arroyo
Edwin Jackson
Jeremy Guthrie
Trevor Cahill
Josh Johnson
Ricky Romero
Roy Oswalt
Jered Weaver
John Danks
R.A. Dickey
Zack Greinke
David Price
Ubaldo Jimenez
Tim Hudson
Dan Haren
Chris Carpenter
Ervin Santana
Matt Cain
Brett Myers
Justin Verlander

Hard to argue with that list.  Some of the very best pitchers in the league, Cy Young winners, staff aces.  Also, R.A. Dickey!  

So is that what's keeping Liriano from "ace" status?  One out?  

There has been a lot of talk about the Wolves’ hot start, and how much we should buy into it.  I have seen a few studies done on the subject, but none quite as thorough as I’d like.  You could certainly go FURTHER than I have here, but I think this is about as far as you need to go on a subject like this.  The first thing you should know, before you read any further, is that I am a statistician, not a writer.  I’m not going to trick you into thinking I’m referring to Mike Beasley, when I’m talking about Carmello Anthony like Oceanary.  I’m not going to compare the preseason to Bob Dylan albums, like SnP.  I’m going to go through my process, and state my conclusions at the bottom.  For those of you who hate numbers (I’m looking at you, TimAllen), I’d skip the meat of this, and go right to the conclusions.  Even if you are mathematically inclined, you still might want to skip to the end, because, as I said, my skill does not lie in writing entertaining pieces.  (As if a piece on multivariable regression could EVER be entertaining!)

Goals

To explore how well preseason record predicts season record, after taking account last season’s record, and last season’s preseason record.

To use this to predict the Wolves’ season record, and give a prediction interval  (similar to a confidence interval) for this record.

Continue reading this post »

Well, the Johnson vs. Cousins thing sure has been beat to death.  And really, how much can you talk about Character issues, team fit, etc. before your head explodes? 

With all of Johnson's red flags, I thought it would be interesting to compare him to someone who is thought of much more highly - Evan Turner.  Now, I think that Turner is the better prospect, and would have taken him if I got the choice.  But I don't think the difference is as pronounced as some are making it seem.

We know what Johnson's red flags are - age, lack of ballhandling ability, only good, not great production in college.  But I feel that Turner has some pretty large ones also, that seem to be glossed over quite frequently.  Here they are:

1. Athleticism.  This has been talked about a lot, but then someone mentions Brandon Roy, and it gets forgotten.  The problem with this is two-fold: players like Brandon Roy and Paul Pierce are the exception, not the rule.  We constantly see this when white players come up - as so many unathletic white college stars have failed in the NBA - but it tends to be glossed over with unathletic black players.  Also, Brandon Roy's combine numbers were very good.  He had 6 inches on Turner in both no-step and max vertical.  It isn't a good sign when a player who is thought of as unathletic by NBA standards has 6 inches in vertical on you.

2.  Outside shot.  Of the unathletic players that have made it in the NBA, they tend to have one thing in common - ability to stretch the defense with their outside shot.  Now, Turner appears to have good form, and as a hard worker, I think most expect him to be at least a proficient 3-point shooter, but at the moment, he isn't.  Below average athleticism AND a below average outside shot is a combination few have overcome to become impact players.

3. Position.  This isn't a big deal, but I thought I'd mention it.  He basically played point all year for Ohio State.  Most assume he'll transition smoothly to moving over to shooting guard, but it doesn't always happen like that.  He might not mesh will with Ball-dominant point guards, as we've never really seen what he can do without the ball in his hands.

4. Fit.  I know. I know.  I know.  BPA!  BPA!  BPA!  But still, like it or not, Kahn is building this team around Rubio, and is surrounding him with guys who will thrive in transition and can knock down outside shots when they get them.  Now, Turner would probably be fine in a transition-based offense, with his court vision and passing ability, but he does look like he's more suited for a half-court set.   He would look really good next to Flynn, as he could make up for some of Flynn's deficiencies, but the fit next to Rubio, and in a run and gun offense, is less clear. 

5.  Age.  For all the talk about Johnson's age, he is just one year older than Turner.  A year is a year, but it's not like Turner is a 19 year old or anything. 

So, there you have it.  As I said at the top, I still think that Turner is the better prospect, as his combination of talents are extremely unique, and a lot of the good things that are said about Johnson also hold true for him: nice guy, hard worker, etc.  But it isn't like we went from Shaquille O'Neal to Christian Laettner when we dropped from 2 to 4.  Both guys are very good prospects, but both have some major flaws that need to be addressed if they're ever going to be stars in this league.  And, the guy we got does fit in better with what our organization is trying to do, whether or not you agree that what they are trying to do is actually what they SHOULD be doing. 

So, that was all a long way of saying that I've decided to be a member of the Wesley Snipes fanclub.  Who's with me?

Hey,

I was going to do a project for a class on spring training, and was looking for some data.  Does anyone know where I can get stats for the past few spring training seasons?  I'm looking for individual player stats, for both hitters and pitchers.  Nothing too extravagant, just the basic stats will be sufficient.  Downloadable in any format would be nice.   Thanks!

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