SB Nation User Blog: StolenMonkey86

After getting accidentally shot in the leg, I'm going to begin to suggest that Vicente Padilla will...

StolenMonkey86 — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:44:56 -0000

After getting accidentally shot in the leg, I'm going to begin to suggest that Vicente Padilla will play for the Brewers under Dick Cheney, er, Ken Macha.

Unclutch! Billingsley with RISP

StolenMonkey86 — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:07:14 -0000

We begin this post with a foreward by Bill Plaschke*, sort of, but then I use numbers below the jump to avoid getting banned from True Blue. So without further adieu, the Poet Laureate of the LA Times:

Call it the devil collecting his due for 2006, to be historical.

Call it bad luck to be positive.

Call it a mental collapse, to be negative.

I call it a glaring hole in his game.

Chad Billingsley should have been an ace, but when the going got tough, he was a joker.

A wild card.

New for us, and new for him.

Well, sort of.

This is a chart of Chad Billingsley's splits with Runners in Scoring Position with 2 outs.

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K%	BB%	HR%	XBH%
2006	.196	.359	.333	.214	12.5%	20.3%	1.6%	6.3%
2007	.211	.348	.316	.268	21.7%	14.5%	1.4%	5.8%
2008	.226	.356	.321	.288	22.8%	12.9%	2.0%	4.0%
2009	.299	.443	.429	.350	15.5%	19.6%	2.1%	6.2%

If you remember anything about Billingsley's 2006 season, you remember that he always seemed to get himself into a lot of trouble before bailing himself out. He was just absurdly lucky with RISP, but after doing it for a while, you began to wonder if it wasn't just luck. Maybe he was just really clutch.

In 2007 and 2008, Billingsley pitched about the same with RISP and 2 outs as he did in other situations, except for a much higher walk rate (but that's understandable). His BABIP was still a bit lower than average, but not as ridiculous and drastic as it was in 2006.

The story for 2009 seems to be that with RISP and 2 outs, Billingsley has had a tough time with that third out. Now, the absurd BABIP says one thing - not only is it well above his career average overall, but it's hugely more than his career average for this situation. Perhaps more bizarrely, his control suffered greatly, reverting him back to 2006 levels where he nearly flipped his walk rate and strikeout rate.

There is not much reason to think that Billingsley is doomed to repeat this performance. For one thing, the absurd BABIP will probably normalize over time to that .270-.280ish level, which would drop the opponent's average by at least .040 (a drop in BABIP in 2009 to .288 would have yielded a .260 opponent's avg). The K-Rate is worrying, but there's no reason to believe he has started a new trend, and I'm guessing he'll be fine come 2010. Billingsley struck out 380 batters over the past two seasons, so it's definitely a skill he has. He'll also be entering his age 25 season (really; we trust his birth certificate to be more authentic than Rafael Furcal's), so he's not exactly over the hill.

But seriously, a .350 opponent's BABIP? Don't expect that to continue unless he's facing Ichiro every time he takes the hill. But when Plaschke suggests trading Billingsley for Roy Halladay, or Jeff Suppan, do not lose the urge to slap him in the face with a giant fish.

* - The fact that fake Plaschke is so easy to write really makes me wonder why he's still a columnist for the Times. If newspapers don't get smarter, they could go out of business....

The Yankees win the AL Pennant, which will put them against the Phillies in the Jersey Turnpike...

StolenMonkey86 — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 04:20:45 -0000

The Yankees win the AL Pennant, which will put them against the Phillies in the Jersey Turnpike series.

Thinking about the Jersey turnpike is a bigger buzzkill than Buzz Killington. Especially when tomorrow's Monday.

A quick look at starting pitching for the NLCS

StolenMonkey86 — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 03:27:14 -0000

Dodger Hitters vs Phillies Pitchers

Cliff Lee faced off vs Clayton Kershaw on June 20, 2008, his only game against the Dodgers. The Dodgers' starting lineup was Pierre (not in beast mode), Kemp, Kent, Loney, Laroche, Ethier, Berroa, Ardoin, Kershaw, so it's not too surprising that Lee went 7 1/3 giving up a walk and 6 hits. Casey Blake was a member of the Indians at the time. Manny is 6 for 14 with 3 2B, 2 HR and 6 walks against Lee. O-Dog is 2 for 6 lifetime with a triple and a homer against him. Ronnie Belliard and Casey Blake have never faced Lee. Four current Dodgers have in their careers hit home runs off of Cliff Lee - Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Orlando Hudson, and Rafael Furcal. Maybe start Hudson for that one.

Cole Hamels finished the year 10-11; why isn't Plaschke trashing him (Did Joe Morgan?)? Are you telling me Plaschke actually noticed that Hamels went 16 innings in 2 starts against the Dodgers, striking out 14 and walking only 1, surrendering only 2 runs? Those starts were May 14 (which the Dodgers won, thanks to Brad Lidge in the 9th and Chad Durbin in the 10th, who intentionally walked James Loney to get to Matt Kemp), and a complete game shutout on June 4, where he gave a hit to Pierre, Loney, Ethier, Kemp and Kershaw. While the announcers on TBS discussed Slam Range, the Dodgers may need to keep the game within Lidge range (3 run lead) if behind. But let's remember also that he has surrendered home runs to Belliard, Loney, Martin and Manny in his young career, and Kemp is 7 for 17 career with 2 doubles against him. Clayton Kershaw has a .400/.400/.400 line against him in 5 AB. It is a bit worrisome, though, that Furcal hits .071/.071/.071 in 14 PAs lifetime vs Hamels. Joe Torre, if you read this blog, let Matt Kemp lead off against Cole Hamels.

JA Happ appeared in relief against the Dodgers, giving up a single and a walk in 2/3 and inning of work. I don't think it's terribly necessary to elaborate here. He's kind of new to everybody.

Pedro Martinez was once a great pitcher. Now he's pretty good, I guess. In the past 2 seasons, he's pitched 153 2/3 innings and given up 26 HRs (1.5 HR/9). Orlando Hudson owns a .280/.308/.520 line against him in 26 PAs, the best of any Dodger who has faced Martinez in over 20 PAs. Pierre is 4 for 11 lifetime with a double against him, and Pedro was one of Matt Kemp's early home run victims when he broke into the league back in 2006 (Kemp is 2 for 3 with a homer and a single against Pedro). Thome hits .167/.314/.476 lifetime with 4 homers in 42 AB vs Pedro. So Thome, O-Dog, Bison are your guys to start against him, and Manny should let Pierre start ahead of him (.167/.211/.222 in 38 PAs), hanging out on the bench with Belliard when O-Dog starts.

Dodgers Pitchers vs Phillies Hitters

Randy Wolf has pushed Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jayson Werth far below the Mendoza line, but Pedro Feliz is a big pain in the ass. Feliz is .294/.316/.824 in 19 PAs against Wolf with 3 homers. Shane Victorino is 3 for 9 lifetime against Wolf, a triple shy of the cycle. Carlos Ruiz and Jimmy Rollins ahve also homered against Wolf. As one would expect, it's the right-handers that give him trouble. This season, he held the Phillies to 1 run over 6 in a 9-2 win on May 13 in Philly while losing one at home after giving up 2 homers in the 7th inning, entering the 7th with a pitch count of 88 on June 7th (nice one Grady, er, Joe).

Chad Billingsley had one start, in Philadelphia. He went 7 innings surrendering 1 run while striking out 9. He got a no decision as the Dodgers managed little against Hamels on May 14 (see link under Hamels), the win instead vultured by Broxton. Billingsley has surrendered long balls to Rollins, Feliz and Howard, although Phillies starters all have an .800 or higher OPS against him except for Victorino. Rollins is the most dangerous with a .400/.471/.867 line against him, although he has kind of sucked this year with the .296 OBP.

Clayton Kershaw ran into pitch count trouble against the Phillies this season, getting to 100 pitches before the 6th inning in two starts, May 12 and June 4, taking the L in both. The only Philly to homer against the Minotaur is Chase Utley in 72 AB, but they can do their damage with patience. "Current Phillies" have hit .222./345/.347 vs Kershaw, as that walk rate has been problematic for the 21-year-old lefty phenom. Howard, Rollins, Werth and Victorino have been held under control, but in addition to Utley, Feliz and Ibanez have given him trouble.

Hiroki Kuroda, if healthy, is a great option. He pitched 6 scoreless innings against the Phillies on June 6th at Dodger Stadium. He didn't get the win thanks to Belisario surrendering 2 runs in the 7th, but the Dodgers won in 12 after forcing another Lidge BS in the 9th, ultimately winning on an Andre Ethier walk-off against Chad Durbin. Pedro Feliz is 2 for 4 against him and Chase Utley is 3 for 9 with 2 doubles against Kuroda. But other than Werth's .222/.300/.333, the rest of the Phillies lineup has less than a .450 OPS against Kuroda!

Vicente Padilla has not faced the Phils this year, but Utley is 1 for 3 with a homer, Howard is 1 for 2 with a homer, and Raul Ibanez is 9 for 28 against him with 2 homers and 4 walks lifetime. Matt Stairs has hit .308 against him career, but all singles.

Jon Garland had one decent game and one awful game against the Phillies while playing for Arizona. The awful game was August 18, where he gave up 5 runs 11 hits and 2 walks in 5 1/3, including homers to Werth and Ruiz. The other start was July 27 and featured 3 unearned runs.

Kuroda, Wolf, and Kershaw appear to be the best choices to face the Phillies (2 starts each), and I'd probably go with Billingsley for Game 4. Personally, I'd also start Hudson against most of the Phillies pitchers (although I could understand Belliard against Happ or Hamels, I guess). But I think this should be a good series.

Note: vs batter stats based on regular season and postseason play

Billingsley: 08 vs 09

StolenMonkey86 — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 20:18:44 -0000

The Dodgers have two outstanding young pitchers in Billingsley and Kershaw. Even though they're now mainstays in the rotation, consider that Billingsley is 10 years younger than Kevin Brown was when he signed his $100,000,000 contract, and Kershaw is 13 years younger. So for right now, I just want to look at Billingsley. He's taken a bit of heat for not being as amazing as he was last year, but I want to know if that's warranted:

2008: 200.7 IP, 32 GS, 201 K, 80 BB, 2.51 K/BB, 14 HR, .248/.324/.363 against, 1.336 WHIP, 3.35 FIP, 3.14 ERA, 135 ERA+
2009: 178.7 IP, 29 GS, 159 K, 75 BB, 2.12 K/BB, 13 HR, .245/.326/.370 against, 1.304 WHIP, 3.62 FIP, 3.93 ERA, 106 ERA+

Based on the three true outcomes, it's not surprising to see a dropoff; he's got a slightly higher walk and home run rate in 2009, and a significantly lower K rate (8.0 vs 9.0 the previous season). But it's equally strange how opponents have nearly identical batting lines against him. Can 0.79 of ERA be explained by productive outs? Or is it possible that Billingsley was a little bit lucky in 08 and a little bit unlucky in 09, but he's roughly the same good pitcher each year?

I do want to look at some pitch data that stuck out at Fangraphs:

Fastball
2008: 59.2% (91.5), -.06 wFB/C
2009: 51.1% (91.7), -.02 wFB/C

using his fastball significantly less means more breaking balls. These could be more stressful on his arm (which would go nicely with the 6th inning struggles story). This could also mean there might be a problem with some of his breaking balls. Let's examine:

2008: 2.1% SL (85.4), 0.35 wSL/C, 18.8% CT (87.6), 1.96 wCT/C, 17.7% CB (77.8), 1.37 wCB/C, 2.4% CH (84.1), -0.96 wCH/C
2009: 4.1% SL (84.1), 3.47 wSL/C, 22.9% CT (88.9), 0.25 wCT/C, 21.5% CB (78.4), 1.57 wCB/C, 0.8% CH (85.7), -9.07 wCH/C

Billingsley improved every breaking pitch that he took a little velocity off, except for his curveball. Given the velocity, I'm wondering if he actually abandoned his changeup and that's just the designation given to his slider when it doesn't work right. And even if his fastball isn't his best pitch, it's probably not helpful to significantly back off of it. Looking back at Baseball-Reference Splits for 2008 and 2009, his K/BB in 2 strike counts drops from 5.91 to 4.82 from 08 to 09. Additionally, by counting the "after 0-1" and "after 1-0" PAs, Billingsley got first pitch strikes 55.6% of the time in 08 vs 54.3% in 09. I'll hypothesize (but without looking at game data pitch by pitch won't say for sure) that relying less on his fastball has led more to Billingsley being slightly less dominant in 2 strike counts as well as slightly less able to come back from behind in the count.

Billingsley has been dinked around a bit more, and that seems like the biggest difference. Despite even less playing time for Juan Pierre, Billingley has actually had more bases taken on him than previous seasons (34 thus far vs 22 all last season). Further, he's had 11 sacrifice flies against him rather than 5 last season; while this is partly due to luck, not getting as many outs by strikeout does make a difference here; the sac flies alone account for 6 ER; Billingsley has so far this season a mere 8 more than last season.

Billingsley might need better advice about trusting his fastball to get ahead and stay ahead in counts, but otherwise, I don't see too much cause for alarm.