The most recent news according to MLB Trade Rumors is that the Diamondbacks, the Nationals, and the White Sox are involved in trade talks. The players it revolves around are Edwin Jackson of the DBacks and Adam Dunn of our Washington Nationals. 

Here is the report:

Rumblings continue to surface about a possible three-team deal involving the Nationals, White Sox and Diamondbacks that would send Edwin Jackson to Washington, Adam Dunn to Chicago and a bunch of young pitchers to Arizona.

Continue reading this post »

Ross Detwiler. The name invokes an array of emotions. Anger at Jim Bowden, for taking him over Rick Porcello or Jason Heyward. Naseua, remembering some of his starts last season. And...also hope, for the potential he has showed. We're in a unique situation this year, we have the luxury of allowing him to throw multiple rehab starts in the minors before slotting him into the rotation--something, due to a dearth of pitching, that would not have happened previously. So let's take a look at the enigma called Ross Detwiler.

Continue reading this post »

A lot of the talk on the Nationals recently has focused on their exceeding their Pythagorean record thus far through the season. Pythagorean record was developed by Bill James and combines a team's runs scored and runs allowed to attempt to predict a team's future record and what the team's record "should have been." The formula for the Pythagorean equation is as follows:

W%=[(Runs Scored)^2]/[(Runs Scored)^2 + (Runs Allowed)^2]

The Nationals equation looks like this:

W%=[(132)^2]/[(132)^2 + (148)^2]=.479%

Over 32 games, this predicts a 14-18 record (rounding), in other words a complete reveral of the Nationals record.

Now, obviously, there are flaws in the system-if a team gives up 11 runs in one game, that is going to negatively affect their pythagorean record to show a lower win expectancy. That 11 runs isn't representative of how to the team usually plays, it's an outlier, an abberration and skews the predictions. So I'm going to try and figure out the largest outlier that has caused the Nationals to post an 18-14 ‘real' record and a 14-18 Pythagorean record.

The first word one everybody's lips is probably ‘Marquis', he was mine too. Let's start with him. 

Game 1: L, 4-8

Game 2: L: 4-7

Game 3: L, 7-11

That's a run tally of 15 RS and 26 RA (a .249 Pythagorean W%). 

By subtracting that total out of the National's runs scored/allowed, we get 117 RS and 122 RA, a .479 PW%. Out of 29 games (32-3 Marquis starts), that procures a 14-15 record, out of   32, a 15-17 record.

So clearly, Marquis was not the largest factor in the four-win differential, he was worth only one.

The second thing I elected to look at was the Phillies. The Phillies are the class of the National League, they've won the pennnant for the past two years, they're more or less the best team in the National League, and teams probably shouldn't expect to fare well against them.

Game 1: L, 1-11

Game 2: L, 4-8

Game 3: W, 6-5

Game 4: L, 4-7

Game 5: L, 7-14

Game 6: W, 7-5

In the six games the Nationals played against the Phillies, they scored 29 runs and allowed 39, a PW% of .360. When subtracting that total, we have a season total of 104 RS and 98 RA. This yields a .530 PW%. Out of 26 games (32-6 Philly games), that produces a 14-12 record and out of 32, a 17-15.

So what does this mean? It means that the Nationals are playing more or less to their Pythagorean record against the league outside the Phillies. The Phillies cause problems for everybody, and as this shows, also for a team's Pythagorean record. 

For kicks, I've decided to look at how the team would fare with facing the Phillies or trotting out Marquis for three starts. 89 RS, 72 RA. The PW% for this comes out to a .604, or a 19-13 record. (on a side note, that's a 98 PW team) The statistical anomaly of Marquis and the gauntlet that is the Phillies having been removed, this shows us how damned good they've been playing.

Obviously I understand that this is 'playing with numbers', too small a sample size, that I can't just throw out Marquis and the Phillies, I can think of a lot of criticisms for this analysis, but it's just to provide my own perspective on the Nats and Pythagoras.   

As the 2010 season is still in its infancy, I would like to revisit an aspect of the 2009 season that raised a few questions. As of 2008 the question of baseball's best third baseman revolved around the horrendously overrated David Wright, the steroid-using Alex Rodriguez, and the not-related-to-Eva Evan Longoria. However last year a new player elbowed his way into the conversation. Ryan Zimmerman, the Face of the Franchise ^TM, replaced David Wright in the debate.  This post will decisively conclude through sabermetrical analysis (and logic) who exactly the best third baseman in baseball was.

Continue reading this post »

So it appears that our Nationals are fine with TAWH and Tavrz!!11one in right field. Bill Ladson is reporting that the Nats are in no rush to add anybody and are comfortable working inside the organization. Although they have been connected to BJ Upton (we can only pray), Corey Hart, and Jermaine Dye, nothing has come to fruition yet. The Rays are planning on waiting to see if they are out of contention to deal Upton, the Brewers are expressing interest in trading Hart to the Nats but no word fro InterRizzo, As for Dye, the Nats only wish to offer only a few million (ONLY), which doesn't fly with him. Dye would be a disaster in right field, he can stay a free agent as far as I'm concerned.

Anybody see Tavrz!!11one today? Not horrendous, 0-1, but made a nice save on Howard's LAUNCH to center field (with bases loaded).

Garret Mock has won the 5th spot in the Nats rotation, despite his two horrible outings recently.

Mock's line:

0-4, 5.79 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 18 IP, 12 K

In his last two starts (one against a band of minor leaguers) he was awful. 9.2 P, 7.82 ERA, 1.95 WHIP

Okay, I know everybody's going to crucify me now, but Olsen was phenomenal his last two starts. 10.1 IP, 1.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 11 K. 

What's wrong with this picture? 
Yeah, okay, put Olsen down in the minors if you're worried about his arm strength, but why not put one of our better pitchers in the rotation instead of Mock? By which I mean Martin, not the Messiah.

My guess would be the issue of options. Olsen and Martin have options left, Mock doesn't. 

Now, regarding Corey Hart, I heard that the Brewers are trying to move him, and according to Rosenthal, Morosi, have talked with the Nationals about him.

Maybe we could see some sort of deal including Mock? 

Well.....who saw this coming?

The Nationals released outfielder Elijah Dukes, according to a team press release.  According to a tweet from MASN's Ben Goessling, the move had nothing to do with off-the-field issues.  This is very surprising news, as Dukes projected as the team's starting right fielder and could've been traded or sent to the minors.  Dukes' time with Washington was marked by injuries and a disappointing '09 season.

Dukes, 25, hit .250/.337/.393 in 416 plate appearances last year, playing a below-average right and center field (according to UZR).  He also played 22 games in the minors.  Dukes has avoided off-the-field problems since Jim Bowden acquired him from the Rays in December of '07, with a June '08 dugout confrontation with Manny Acta probably his worst offense.  Just a couple of weeks ago Goessling noted that the Nationals had "taken the reins off Dukes -- letting his personal adviser go and allowing him more freedom with the media." 

Maybe J-Max will take over? Bernadina? Please tell me they're not considering Dye.....

He must've done something really bad, blown up or something; there had to have been some sort of off-field encounter. I mean, they had an option on him still, and they could've kept him as a reserve if it was due to his performance. Huh. Dukes to Pittsburgh?

Tim Kurkjian ran a feature piece on the Greatest Prospect Ever(TM) and DC's Savior: Stephen Strasburg, a future hall of famer who is already the best pitcher in baseball--without throwing a single major league pitch.

Thought y'all might be interested.

The Stephen Strasburg Era began Sunday with a wind sprint on a back field in Viera, Fla., 41 years to the day after the great Ted Williams signed a five-year deal to manage the Washington Senators.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2010/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=4934071

While debating our respective teams with some of you fine folks, one of you suggested a fantasy baseball league to determine 'the biggest idiot'. I'd be more than happy to coordinate it. So if you're interested, post below with your email and your preference in league (H2H/roto). I was thinking we could have two divisions, Federal Baseball and Bucs Dugout. And in closing because I need 75 words, I say to you Nationals>Pirates. Thanks.

While arguing back and forth with the quality baseball fans over at buccos dugout, one of them suggested the idea of a fantasy baseball league to see 'who is the bigger idiot' I believe were his words. I said I'd be happy to orchestrate such a league and that I'd get people from here. The format will be two divisions (FB and BD), head to head (points or roto, it doesnt matter to me). Who's interested?