I sit here, watching hours upon hours of pregame shows, before week 1 and I should be giddy about the prospect of real football in just an hour.  In years past I would not be able to sleep easily the night before that first Sunday of games.  I would be talking to my wife nonstop about how excited I was for 1pm.  But this year…this year just feels different.  I’m welcoming of the football that will be played soon…yet, I don’t really know how to feel about my Buffalo Bills.  Let me try to sort out my feelings below.

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NOTE:  I posted this a few days ago, but it was deleted because it was off topic…but it was received well in that short time, so mind as well re-post.

A look at teams and their quarterback situation entering the 2010 season…

Okay, so going into the 2010 season, there were many teams “set” at quarterback…”set” meaning a dependable, veteran, decent at worst starter.  Many of these guys are “Franchise QBs”; while the rest are on their way to being Franchise QBs or were at some point in their careers but may be trending downward.  Let’s call this “group 1”.  The teams in group 1 were:

New England – Tom Brady

Cincinnati – Carson Palmer

Baltimore – Joe Flacco

Pittsburgh – Ben Rothleisberger

Houston – Matt Schaub

Indy – Peyton Manning

Jacksonville – David Garrard

San Diego – Phil Rivers

Dallas – Tony Romo

New York Giants – Eli Manning

Chicago – Jay Cutler

Green Bay – Aaron Rodgers

Minnesota – Brett Favre

Atlanta – Matt Ryan

New Orleans – Drew Brees

Seattle – Matt Hasselbeck

If a team didn’t fit into group 1, then they may fit into “group 2”.  Group 2 are teams who had inexperienced, but talented QBs (usually high drafts picks, often 1st rounders) who are in need of game experience, and thus, teams start them hoping to see improvement each and every game.  NFL front offices believe their QB can ascend to group 1 status, with experience.  Group 2 entails:

New York Jets – Mark Sanchez (5th overall pick)

Miami – Chad Henne (57th overall pick)

Tennessee – Vince Young (3rd overall pick)

Kansas City – Matt Cassell (7th round pick)

Philadelphia – Kevin Kolb (36th overall pick)

Detroit – Matt Stafford (1st overall pick)

Tampa Bay – Josh Freeman (17th overall pick)

Arizona – Matt Leinart (10th overall pick)

San Francisco – Alex Smith (1st overall pick)

St. Louis – Sam Bradford (1st overall pick)

If teams did not have a group 1 or 2 quarterback, then they had to make a move to try and upgrade their talent at the game’s most important position.  Here is what the rest of the teams did to upgrade their quarterback positions going into the 2010 season (final roster), let’s call this “Group 3”:

Cleveland – Acquired Jake Helhomme, drafted Colt McCoy in 3rd round.

Denver – Drafted Tim Tebow in 1st round.

Oakland – Acquired Jason Campbell.

Washington – Acquired Donovan McNabb.

Carolina – Drafted Jimmy Clausen in 2nd round.

Well friends, that is 31 or 32 NFL teams.  The only team that doesn’t fit neatly into one of these categories?  You guessed it….Frank Stallone!  Err, The Buffalo Bills!

So what happened?  Did Buddy Nix believe that Trent Edwards fit into group 2?  If so, Trent would be the guy in that group drafted with the 2nd lowest draft choice (Matt Cassell drafted in 7th round was the lowest draft pick in that group) since Trent was selected in the 3rd round.  Not that draft position matters much after the draft….but still….was Buddy Nix trying to get Trent Edwards more experience in the hopes that he could move into group 1?

I hope so.  *Because if not, then the Buffalo Bills were the only NFL team to not have a proven starter (group 1), not have a potential franchise QB in need of game experience (group 2) and came into the 2010 season with the exact same group of quarterbacks that they ended the 2009 season with.* 

Thoughts?

Okay, so I need some help from my Rumblings Brothers...

I just got back into collecting sports autographs after collecting autos and cards as a kid.  I find it to be a fun hobby and a cool way to interact with the players a little, even in my late 20's, although sometimes it can be a little strange asking for autographs from guys younger than me and competing with little kids for the guy's attention!  In fact, I'm pretty sure I sent a few children flying over the wall of the Ralph and to the hospital at open practice on Saturday while fighting for autos...(just kidding)  But alas, I have resigned myself to being "that older guy asking who most athletes probably think I'm going to sell their autos on ebay".  I guess it's just the price I pay for having a good collection.

My favorite item to get signed are the mini football helmets.  But, as always, I like to be different and unique....so I have decided that getting autos on player's college mini helmets is a fun way to mix it up a bit.  And not only that, but I also try to get the player to inscribe something with the signature....

For example:  I attended a Paul Poz signing a few months back with a Penn State mini helmet.  Paul signed it, complete with his Penn State jersey number....and I asked him to inscribe "2 x All American", which he gladly did.  Now, this piece is one of my favorites, since I don't know many people with such an item.

Now to the point of my post.  Andre Reed will be at Merritt Winery (near Forestville) this weekend to be the host of their annual Strawberry Festival.  He will be signing autographs and meeting fans.  So, being the nut I am, of course I looked all over the internet for a Kutztown University mini football helmet.  In fact, I'm pretty sure I reached the end of the internet during my search.  The only place that sold such an item?  The Kutztown University Bookstore, and at quite a markup, of course! 

So I bought the helmet, and am ready to go this weekend.  But now my questions:

When you have a guy sign a college mini helmet, you can't have him inscribe his NFL stats, can you?

If not, what the heck can I have Andre inscribe on his Kutztown State mini helmet?  I don't think he holds any records there....does he?  Any type of college honors?  Anybody have any ideas on what I can suggest he put with his signature?  If you saw a Kutztown University mini helmet signed by Andre, you'd think it was pretty cool, right?  Not something you see everyday....but would it be that much sweeter if he put some stats or an accomplishment on there too?

Any ideas or even comments would be greatly apprecaited.  The crazier the better....I like to try to be original!

I'm glad that my first edition of "I said that?" was so well received.  Since we are currently in a "down time" for NFL news...I thought we could use another version.  This time, I went back to the 2009 NFL draft to re-read comments made on April 25th, 2009....when the words "Jairus Byrd- CB" almost brought down our great Buffalo Rumblings website via a drunken hate fest! 

But could you blame us?  Drafting another CB within the first two rounds almost seemed like the Bills were taunting the fans to break their televisions on the spot.  Little did we know Byrd would be converted into a Safety and make the Pro Bowl. 

Once again, I remind you that I tried to pick the boldest claims, the strongest wording, the most fearsome predictions or just the funniest and most interesting comments.  I did not try to single out any one person.  So if you find yourself on this list multiple times...it's possible that someone could have spiked your drink that night (maybe even yourself)....so we won't hold it against you.  Maybe everyone gets a free pass for that night....but we hope not to duplicate it.  Or, at least Brian hopes not to...  Let the bad memories begin!  (maybe this will be therapeutic?)

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Ok, so we all know that the months leading up to the NFL draft is a time filled with predictions, strong opinions and heated arguments.  So I decided to go back in the archives, pick out a few of the bolder comments made pre-draft, and revisit them in all their glory!  This is meant to be a fun experiment....I tried to include good, bad, and funny comments....and I tried not to key on any one person.  If this goes over well, I could do a few others....including comments made during the draft....and also pre-season comments.  So without further adieu, let's get to the comments!  (not in any type of order.)  Please feel free to discuss which ones were the best below:

I said that?  Pre-2010 NFL Draft Edition

"I think there is a strong chance that the Bills' pick in the second round this year is a NT - Cam Thomas or Torrell Troup of Linval Joseph (whoever they like best). And whoever they choose among that group will likely be a very valuable contributor to the team for years to come."  -  Macktruck  4/17/10

"I fully agree with you on Best. I think he'll be the better pro, assuming concussions aren't an issue. I like him better than Spiller and feel he's the better all around RB. I'm not sure why Spiller gets all the ink, either, because Best is every bit the playmaker Spiller is. If he goes where many project, late 1st or early 2nd, some team will have gotten a steal."  -  Kurupt  4/17/10

"Here's hoping Gailey's scatback can be found in the 5th round or later...I loathe the idea of wasting high impact draft choices on running backs."  -  Port Royal  4/17/10

"And agree to an extent. I think he's bracing the fans for not getting everything they had hoped to get (like a QB, starting LT, starting NT, starting OLB, etc) all in one draft."  (speaking about Nix)  -  Kurupt  4/16/10

"I thought Buddy Nix's luncheon quotes were a little obnoxious also. He basically called out the fans for mock drafting too much. Has anyone else heard all of these CJ Spiller at #9 predictions? That would be soooo stupid."  -  MikeD28x  4/16/10

"Asside from Hughes who was addressed earlier, Modrack lit up when talking about Terrell Troup. Buddy did the same with Spiller. Probably doesn't mean that much, but take it for what its worth."  -  evdawg419  4/14/10

"I just pray we don't take....Spiller at 9. I am just not a believer in drafting RBs high in the first round. Especially not when we already have two very good RBs. I think Spiller can be good, but I don't think he's a superstar in the making. As much as I'd hate Tebow at 9, I don't think there is one player I'd like LESS than Spiller at 9. I think that pick would be a complete luxury pick that we can't afford. It would remind me of the McGahee/Parrish picks of previous years."  -  CBATL32  4/14/10

"modrak thinks that dt/nt is a deeper part of the draft, lends one to think he will wait till later to get someone like troupe.."  -  Silverstreak3k  4/15/10

"And I've totally been saying for awhile, that just because someone envisions something as the Bills greatest need, doesnt mean the Bills view it as something they must spend a 1st round pick on."  -  Mob16151  4/15/10

"Levi is interesting prospects because I been to many of Troy's game and saw him play and torched defense, including LSU in 2008, which that game still make me sick to my stomach. I just not think that he is a prospect that fits us. He needs to go to a team like New England that runs the run n' shoot or Indianpolis because of the No Huddle."  (discussing Levi Brown)  -  Trojans3  4/12/10

"I cant believe we are even discussing this with the draft ten days away. For now I'm going to believe that Gailey and Nix are not going to go the route of drafting Levi Brown in round 6. "  -  Poz  4/12/10

" Luckily, I cant get too mad. I think at this point all the "rumors" seem to be indicating that the Buffalo Bills are the team most interested in Tim Tebow. Everything Nix AND Gailey say they want in a QB prospect you find in Tebow. Add to that Jim Kellys endorsement of the kid and I think we may be headed for a Tebow at 9 scenario. I think its such a serious possibility I've already ran over the implications of such a move in my head to prepare myself for it when it happens."  -  Poz  4/12/10

"Would you pass on Clausen because you had Delhomme and Wallace?  Neither will Holmgren."  -  Der Jaeger  4/10/10

 "I think Bell and Meredith are purely LTs, so letting them compete there makes sense to me. I don't think Chambers sticks, and I'd like a Kyle Calloway in the mid-rounds to eventually take over for Cornell Green."  -  Brian Galliford  4/10/10

 "How about Ed Wang at Virginia Tech? He's got above average athleticism and possesses the demeanor that we should be looking for. If the Bills aren't able to get one early, I wouldn't be opposed to grabbing Wang (ha!) in the 4th or 5th and seeing what he can do. At worst, he looks like a solid RT prospect, as well...."  -  Kurupt  4/10/10

"if Troupe and Cody are both available in the second who do you like?"  -  Bills of Erie  4/9/10

"That's not even a debate. Cody. I don't think Cody will make it to 41."  Brian Galliford  4/9/10

"I'll give Troup a 75% of becoming a Buffalo Bill. I will also make up 60% of my statistics on the spot."  -  Rbbills  4/9/10

"Your opinion on Griffen as a prospect doesn't fly with league opinion, though. If he doesn't go in the first round, he'll be gone early in the second. He's not a one-trick pony; aside from maybe JPP, he's by far the most athletic 4-3 end prospect available this year. Not sure where that third-round grade comes from; he's been higher than that all along."  (talking about Everson Griffen)  -   Brian Galliford  4/8/10

"But if that's the game plan, OL, DL, and QB need to be solved first and the first three rounds of the next few drafts is the only place they can be counted on to be accomplished. OLBs, WRs, third down backs, and all the other finesse hood ornaments need to take a back seat."  -  Port Royal  4/9/10

"I make it a practice to drop all of my pre-conceived notions about players the day before the draft, because really, WTF do I know about football players?"  -  Brian Galliford  4/7/10

 "yea it's always like "If we draft that guy I'm gonna be pissed..." Two days later you're only seeing their upside."  -  ForeignArrow  4/8/10

"I'll admit it: I'm going to go completely bananas if we pass on Clausen.  This franchise desperately needs a face of the franchise and I don't care if we need O-line help and whatever. QB is our biggest need and this new regime needs to send the right message to the fan base that they're serious about making this franchise great again and the best way to do that is by acquiring a franchise QB."  -  BillsfanfromDenmark  4/3/10

"the Bills cant and wont pass on Clausen...his resume and ability to fit such a big need is just too attractive to ignore."  -  uPitt_BillsFan  4/3/10

"1 - Jimmy Clausen - I actually like him better than Bradford and ..... gasp ... even Jake Locker. I think quarterbacking in the NFL is largely about making decisions and I think Clausen is great at it and only going to get better."  -  Kaisertown  4/3/10

:"As President of the Jimmy Clausen Fan Club: I say taking Clausen at 9 if available is a no brainer."  -  Michael_Necci  4/19/10

 "I'll go on the record...and be the one to tell you not to worry... Because Colt will go late first, or very early second.. I'm convinced that is who Holmgren really wants, so any other suitors will have to get him before the Browns second rd pick..."  -   Cinga  4/19/10

"The top 3 prospects in the draft are suh berry and clausen hands down and clausen will sure up the position for 10 years..."  -  J. Mackin  4/20/10

"Colt McCoy is the real deal. I like Tebow too.  Either of these QBs + franchise tackle.......don't care how Nix drafts the rest of the way it'd still be a good draft for me =)"  -   Moncheri  4/20/10

"Denver is a team who could move up ahead of us to pick him. McDaniels has the power there and is allegedly in love with Tebow. They have multiple 2nd round picks and plenty of other picks to use as ammo."  -  Jeff Winters  4/20/10

"I guarantee that Davis won't get past Mike Singletary at pick 13."  (Anthony Davis)  -  Brian Galliford  4/20/10

"I don't care how they get him, but this team needs to have Clausen or Tebow on the roster by the end of the night. Come on Buddy, make some savvy moves to get the QB you like!!!"  -   Kurupt  4/22/10

" I believe Tebow will be drafted somewhere between 1 and 200"  -  Bob  4/22/10

"What would happen (on this site) if the Bills...Passed on Clausen in the first and also failed to move back into the draft in time to get Tebow...."  -  MikeEverett08  4/22/10

"Yeah, if Mathews gets past SD at 28, he'll be gone very early in the second."  (Answer to question about Ryan Mathews)  -   Brian Galliford  4/22/10

"for the love of Peter Pan Crunchy Peanut Butter I hope so. We need a QB and I'd take Clausen or Tebow without hesitating"  (commenting on Wes Bunting's claim that the Bills wouldn't escape the first round without a QB)  -  J2  4/22/10

"Nix made it quite clear.  They will not reach. The player they pick will have to be able to start. That leaves out any QB that they could be in position to draft"  -  Bob  4/22/10

"Just so you know....if we dont get Tebow you are going to be directly responsible for all the disappointment and broken hearts! You started this craze!!!! AHHHHH"  (Commenting to Silverstreak, who started the Tebow fanclub on Rumblings)  -  Poz  4/22/10

 "If Clausen falls that far, the Bills should be all over him."  (Commenting on a rumor that Jimmy Clausen could fall to pick 30)  -  MattRichWarren  4/22/10

"Drafting is all about value. I love Clausen if he falls. I love Tebow in the 3rd round. Its all about value."  -   Thurman's Helmet  4/22/10

"Here's a rumor from a guy whos like the Geronimo of twobillsdrive:

OT would still be the preference. Williams or Okung. Obviously pending availability. I don't believe there is another OT they would take that high. Spiller will defintely have a high first round grade and could be taken there. McClain is a real possibility. Dan Williams would be the dark horse candidate.

If any of the top few prospects slip for any reason that can change things. But I can't imagine someone like Berry sliding.
Barring a trade of some sort. No QB until at least the second round. "  -  Mob16151  4/22/10

"Like you said earlier today I think, RBs should be the last piece of the puzzle. Thurman was the last of the greats to be drafted. They did go on to add Lofton."  (Commenting on Der Jaeger's rule about not drafting RBs high...unless the rest of team is built up)  -   MattRichWarren  4/22/10

"They better not Go Spiller... Anything but Spiller."  -  UnBILLievable JJP  4/22/10

"Not enough people realize just how incredibly freaking vital it is to have direction at QB. We haven't even had DIRECTION there since they drafted Losman as the heir to Bledsoe's throne. Direction would be nice, but we really, really have to hit on a QB. Now.

I'll put it in the terms of one of the guys in the league that I talk to frequently: if Buffalo doesn't emerge from this weekend with a franchise QB, we can start scouting for our next head coach on Sunday morning."  -   Brian Galliford  4/22/10

"I was rooting for the Bills to get a QB, with Tebow my first choice, Clausen my second choice......but if your telling me there's a chance we can get rid of Gailey in a year? Well, that may be too tempting to root for......"  (Commenting on Brian's quote above)  -  StroudFanClub  4/22/10

"I dont think any of this years QBs are franchise QBs...IMO, Clausen and McCoy are the best in the long-term. I dont want a QB this year, none of them excite me. I could live with Snead or Skelton but I wouldn't want to waster that pick either. I would rather roll w/ Edwards/Brohm."  -  NorCal BillsFan  4/22/10

"Also - not necessarily QB FIRST. There's a difference that most miss here. You don't HAVE to build up everything else first. Nor do you have to get a QB first (though it almost always happens that way). What is an ABSOLUTE MUST is that QB always be your top priority. If you don't believe in any of the guys this year, then fine, build the rest of your team. But if you do... GO GET THAT GUY."  -  Brian Galliford  4/22/10

"I want to build elsewhere this year based on the fact that next years draft consist of Ryan Mallett and Jake Lockear"  -  Weebey  4/22/10

"How I will be happy if by midnight, Buffalo has a new OT/DT and a new franchise QB.  My preference:  Bulaga/Tebow or Williams/Tebow.  One of the three main needs positions (DT, LT, QB) is going to have to wait...."  -   Jri111  4/22/10

"Ugh, I can't believe we honestly stand a good chance at getting Tebow. If we manage to fumble him away I think I'm going to hurl and go cry."  -  Dyl  4/22/10

" I'll be really disappointed if the Bills don't get him. I'm terrified they're not even going to take QB in the first two rounds. If this happens we can expect wailing and nashing of teeth around here. And for good reason."  -   Dyl  4/22/10

"Don't be surprised if....the draft board doesn't fall the way the Bills are hoping and Tebow, Claussen and McCoy are all gone between our first and second pick."  -  Slick Shifty  4/22/10

 "I'm scared I'm skeptical of Clausen but i'm worried we are going to pass on him and hes going to end up being really good."  -   MikeD28x  4/21/10

"If we get Berry instead of a LT or a QB I´ll sue you, and the bills."  (To Brian Galliford, from rick p)  4/21/10

"I believe this is the first time in over three years of writing this blog that I've been threatened with a lawsuit."  (Brian Galliford, to rick p)  4/21/10

"So then.....all we have to do, is draft a QB, an OT, a pass rush OLB, A TE, a NT, a TE, and a WR tomorrow night....
I propose that in the interest of "fairness", all teams drafting after Buffalo in the first rd, should give their picks to us, so once again, we can be competitive in the league... "  -  Cinga  4/21/10

 "Hesitant on the Clausen pick.  but much better than selecting RB  No RB reminds me of LT (prime) / AP / CJ. So in essence it would be a waste of a 1st if we picked RB."  -  neverbeentobuffalo  3/27/10

"In my opinion...it wont matter anyway because neither Bradford or Clausen will fall to us"  -  Poz  3/28/10

 "Colt McCoy and Tebow have no business there as both of them are second or third round prospects."  (On attending the draft.)  -  BillsfanfromDenmark  3/25/10

 "I would prefer OT in the 1st, but I look at Spiller as a lot like LT and Nix was a part of the drafting of LT. Thats why I think Spiller."  -   Bosauce  3/17/10

 "Alex Carrington is my favorite 3-4 DE prospect in this draft."  -  mob16151  3/12/10

 "I really, really, agree....on Carrington... Holding out hope he's a possible in the second... BPA all the way, and if we were to get him in the second, I'd join the Rumblers dancing in the street... Course I'd have to be drinking heavily first...."  -  Cinga  3/12/10

"Tyson Alualu:  He is my favorite 3-4 DE. Has a non-stop motor and has a knack for batting down passes. 7.5 sacks last season palying the 3-4 DE. Perfect fit in the 2nd-3rd round."  -  The Irishman  3/12/10

 "Dan Williams is black!?! I had a much different mental picture in my brain for some reason."  -  BillsfanDan  3/12/10

 "we could pick up Cody in the second. I really like him for our future NT. If not, I really like this guy in around the 4th or so: Torrell Troup, Height: 6-3, Weight: 314, College: UCF. Been doing a lot of reading on him, and he is a run plugger who could fit right in immediatly into a rotation at NT. Maybe more."  -  SERGEANT MAJOR THOR  3/12/10

There you have it.  Any comments on which one you liked the best?  Gotta love pre-draft discussion!

Before today I was genuinely undecided as to if Tim Tebow would be a good draft pick for the Buffalo Bills. But after reading Brian’s latest article about intangibles at the QB position, I believe I’ve had somewhat of an epiphany. As the headline of my post already suggests, I will now be very happy if Tim Tebow is holding up a Buffalo Bills uniform come draft day. Let me explain.

Forget all of the stats, even though they are impressive:  two-time Florida High School player of the year. Led High School team to state title senior year. Once finished a game on a broken leg in senior year. Although not starter, Tebow had a rushing and passing TD in 2006 National Championship win. First player to win Heisman as a sophomore. Fractured his right hand in third quarter of game against FSU in 2007 but finished game. Won his second National Championship in 2008. Finished college career with 88 passing TD, 15 INT, and 57 rushing TD. Considered by some to be the best college QB ever, if not best college player ever.

Now, nobody can deny that Tim Tebow was a fantastic college QB. What people are concerned about, however, are how his playing style and mechanics translate to the NFL. This seems to be a valid concern, as it is an opinion shared by many a draft guru. May I present what has me sold on Tebow becoming a success in the NFL:

THE PROMISE
To the fans and everybody in Gator Nation, I’m sorry. I’m extremely sorry. We were hoping for an undefeated season. That was my goal, something Florida has never done here. I promise you one thing, a lot of good will come out of this. You will never see any player in the entire country play as hard as I will play the rest of the season. You will never see someone push the rest of the team as hard as I will push everybody the rest of the season. You will never see a team play harder than we will the rest of this season. God Bless.

Continue reading this post »

 In light of the QB article Brian wrote today (good one, too), I thought I would take a look to see if I could find some recent trends on how successful teams acquired their quarterbacks.  Please note that this is not how the quarterback originally got into the league, but how the team he is currently with got the quarterback.  The following is my research, analysis, and conclusions.  Please feel free to let me know if I have something wrong, and please give your take on the subject!

Top 16 (top half of starting signal callers) QBs by QB Rating- 2009 season:

1.)    Drew Brees- 109.6 – Free agent signing, 2006

2.)    Brett Favre- 107.2 – Free agent signing, 2009

3.)    Philip Rivers- 104.4 – Drafted by Chargers, first round, 2004

4.)    Aaron Rodgers- 103.2 - Drafted by Packers, first round 2005

5.)    Ben Roethlisberger- 100.5 – Drafted by Steelers, first round 2004

6.)    Peyton Manning- 99.9 - Drafted by Colts, first round 1998

7.)    Matt Schaub- 98.6 – Traded to Texans, 2007

8.)    Tony Romo- 97.6 - Undrafted, signed with Dallas 2003

9.)    Tom Brady- 96.2 - Drafted by Patriots, sixth round 2000

10.)  Kurt Warner- 93.2 - Free agent signing, 2005

11.)  Eli Manning- 93.1 – Drafted by Giants, first round 2004

12.)  Donovan McNabb- 92.9 - Drafted by Eagles, first round 1999

13.)  Joe Flacco- 88.9 - Drafted by Ravens, first round 2008

14.)  Kyle Orton- 86.8 – Traded to Broncos, 2009

15.)  Jason Campbell- 86.4 – Drafted by Redskins, first round 2005

16.)  Carson Palmer- 83.6 - Drafted by Bengals, first round 2003

Number of Top 16 QBs who:

Were drafted by their current team:  10 of 16 (63%)

Were drafted in the 1st round by their current team:  9 of 16 (56%)

Were acquired by current team in free agency, after QB played for another NFL team:  3 of 16 (19%)

Were acquired by current team via trade:  2 of 16 (12%)

Acquired their QB as an undrafted free agent:  1 of 16 (6%)

Now let’s see who quarterbacked the teams that made the 2009 playoffs:

NY Jets- Mark Sanchez, Drafted by Jets, first round 2009

Cincinnati Bengals- Carson Palmer, Drafted by Bengals, first round 2003

Baltimore Ravens- Joe Flacco, Drafted by Ravens, first round 2008

New England Patriots- Tom Brady, Drafted by Patriots, sixth round 2000

Indianapolis Colts- Peyton Manning, Drafted by Colts, first round 1998

San Diego Chargers- Philip Rivers, Drafted by Chargers, first round 2004

Philadelphia Eagles- Donovan McNabb, Drafted by Eagles, first round 1999

Dallas Cowboys- Tony Romo, Undrafted, signed with Dallas 2003

Green Bay Packers- Aaron Rodgers, Drafted by Packers, first round 2005

Arizona Cardinals- Kurt Warner, Free agent signing, 2005

Minnesota Vikings- Brett Favre, Free agent signing, 2009

New Orleans Saints- Drew Brees, Free agent signing, 2006

Number of playoff teams who:

Drafted their QB:  8 of 12 (67%)

Drafted their QB in 1st round:  7 of 12 (58%)

Acquired their QB in free agency, after QB played with another NFL team:  3 of 12 (25%)

Acquired their QB as an undrafted free agent:  1 of 12 (8%)

And finally, let’s take a look at the 12 Super Bowl winners and how their QBs were acquired:

1998- Denver Broncos- John Elway- Drafted by Baltimore but traded to Denver without playing a game for Baltimore, for this analysis I will count him as being drafted by Denver, first round 1983

1999- Denver Broncos- John Elway- Drafted by Baltimore but traded to Denver without playing a game for Baltimore, for this analysis I will count him as being drafted by Denver, first round 1983

2000- St Louis Rams- Kurt Warner, free agent signing, 1998

2001- Baltimore Ravens- Trent Dilfer, free agent signing, 2000

2002- New England Patriots- Tom Brady, drafted by Patriots, sixth round 2000

2003- Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Brad Johnson, traded to Tampa in 2001

2004- New England Patriots- Tom Brady, drafted by Patriots, sixth round 2000

2005- New England Patriots- Tom Brady, drafted by Patriots, sixth round 2000

2006- Pittsburgh Steelers- Ben Roethlisberger- 100.5 – Drafted by Steelers, first round 2004

2007- Indianapolis Colts- Peyton Manning, Drafted by Colts, first round 1998

2008- New York Giants- Eli Manning- 93.1 – Drafted by Giants, first round 2004

2009- Pittsburgh Steelers- Ben Roethlisberger- 100.5 – Drafted by Steelers, first round 2004

Number of Super Bowl winning QBs (past 12 years) who:

Were drafted by their current team:  9 of 12 (75%)

Were drafted in the 1st round by their current team:  5 of 12 (42%)

Were acquired by current team in free agency, after QB played for another NFL team:  2 of 12 (17%)

Were acquired by current team via trade:  1 of 12 (8%)

My analysis:

The first thing that jumps out at me is the number of first round QB’s who are leading the teams they were drafted by to success.  58% of teams in this years playoffs were led by a first round QB they drafted.  42% of Super Bowl winning teams the past 12 years were led by QB’s they drafted in the first round, and if you put Tom Brady in this metric this number jumps to 75%!  Lastly, first round QB’s drafted by their team that finished in the top 16 in QB Rating this year made up 56% of the total.

Now let’s breakdown successful teams that did not get their QB via the draft (or undrafted free agent QB that didn’t play for anyone else prior, I'm looking at you Tony Romo!).  The list of 3 QBs who got their teams to the playoffs this year and were signed via free agency includes Brett Favre, Drew Brees and Kurt Warner.  Retired after a great career, the Vikings had to get Favre out of retirement, and not every team had a realistic shot at doing so, since he wanted to go to a “contender”.  Drew Brees had two very good years in San Diego, earning a Pro Bowl spot in 2005, but hurt his shoulder badly a game before free agency, and thus at the time it was far from a sure thing to think he would come back completely from this injury.  Kurt Warner also had a wildly successful few years with St Louis, but in 2002 he broke his hand, and when 2003 started terribly for him, he was released.  He went to the Giants and played terribly there as well, so he was let go and the Cardinals took a chance that the once great Warner could come back to life.  All three of these guys had some level of success prior to hitting free agency (in the cases of Favre and Warner great success), thus they had proven they could be good/great in the NFL prior to signing with their new teams.

Finally, of the two QBs who were traded to their current team and finished in the top 16 in QB rating this year, you can make an argument that Kyle Orton just snuck on the list, and really shouldn’t be considered “Denver’s future”.  Matt Schaub, on the other hand, had potential with Atlanta, and still does with the Texans, although they need to get over the hump and make the playoffs still.  Neither of these guys are locks to take their teams to the next level.

My conclusions:

To me, when deciding how to go about getting that QB to lead the Bills, most options include taking one in the draft in the first round, taking one in the draft after the first round, signing a free agent who has proven that he can have success playing in this league with other teams, and signing a free agent who another team has more or less “given up” on.  Here is how I rate the choices, from best to worst option:

1.)     Draft a QB in first round.  While I know the rate of hitting on a first round QB is not always the best, and if you take one and they suck, it can set your franchise back not only in “wasted years” trying to teach the new guy but also financially, I still believe it is the best option of leading your team to the playoffs.  The teams in the 2009 playoffs prove to me that good teams are most often lead by good quarterbacks.  And most of these good quarterbacks are chosen within the first 32 picks of the draft.  It is risky, but I believe it is well worth the risk.  (Unless of course, there is a pre-draft consensus that the best QBs are named Manning, Rivers and Big Ben, so right after they are taken your team trades up to get…..JP Losman?  For the record, I don’t consider that as the Bills gambling on a first round QB, since Losman wasn’t projected to even go first round, IMO).  My early leaders in this category for 2010:  Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, possibly Tim Tebow….possibly.

2.)    Sign a free agent who has proven that he can have success playing in this league for another team.  It is a very rare occurrence that a team can acquire a QB via free agency that will lead them to success.  Drew Brees is this exception because to sign him you had to give him big bucks and most importantly take a chance that he could come back from a big injury.  Needless to say, New Orleans gambled and hit the jackpot.  Favre and Warner were proven winners who found teams willing to gamble that they still had some left in the tank.  Sometimes these guys are out there, but not often.  My early leaders in this category for 2010:  Donovan McNabb if he becomes available…..and that may be it.  You can argue that Chad Pennington, Mike Vick and Marc Bulger (if released) can be placed in this group…..but I don’t think I would agree with you.

And those, to me, are the only two options worth exploring, since I don’t think the remaining options really work out enough times, and here is why:

Drafting a QB after the first round.  The only guy I see anywhere on these lists that won with the team that drafted him and was not a first rounder?  You guessed it….Frank Stallone….err….Mr. Wonderful, Tom Brady.  To me, this screams anomaly.  Oh yes, and Tony Romo, as he was an undrafted free agent.  Still looks like it isn’t worth spending the pick, to me at least. 

Signing a free agent who another team has more of less “given up on”.  Again, I just don’t see where these guys are really represented in the top 16 of QB rating leaders (Kyle Orton looks like the only example), in the playoff teams (none here) and in the Super Bowl winners (Kurt Warner doesn’t really fit here, since he wasn’t with any other teams very long before St. Louis. Trent Dilfer is the poster child for this label, though, but you can argue that Baltimore won because of that insane defense, and despite Dilfer, and that is what I will in fact argue, since it helps my point!  Brad Johnson rounds out this group, winning with Tampa by not making mistakes and getting 21 of their 48 points scored by their defense in that game.  That always helps!)  My early leaders in this category for 2010:  Tavaris Jackson, Jason Campbell, Tyler Thigpen and Billy Volek, Troy Smith, Bruce Gradkowski and in my opinion, Chad Pennington, Mike Vick and Marc Bulger.

So start scouting some first round quarterbacks!

As we all know, being a Bills fan is often difficult.  We haven't made the playoffs in 10 years, only 1 of our past 3 head coaches ("HC") has had HC experience, and our biggest ticket free agent signing lately has been TO, by all accounts a guy who didn't have many other options.  After sitting through this past season, I held out hope that Dick Jauron (and John Guy) would be fired and Ralph would finally have enough of the losing and bring in the type of HC with such credentials and respect that if he failed in Buffalo, it would be suprising.  In that scenario at least I could be content that the Bills failed despite their very best efforts to get better.

I know many of you have had the same hopes.  But a funny thing happens to us Bills fans.  We start with big hopes...and slowly, somehow, throughout the process we revert back to "settleing" for less than the best.  Case in point:  after Jauron was fired, and the season was lost, how many of us said to ourselves, "if only we could hire a 70 year old GM not many people have heard of, who had never been a GM before.  That would really get me fired up for next year!"?  Not me, that's for sure.  In fact, when I heard a report earlier that day that the Bills would announce a GM hire from within the organization, well, I almost had a heartattack.  All those interesting articles highlighting potential young, up and coming GM candidates on this great website were for naught.  I thought this website would errupt with anger. 

But a funny thing happened.  Initial anger from a good amount of people, but then the "settleing" set in.  Hey, Buddy Nix drafted some great guys in San Diego.  Hey, he's only been here for a year, so it's not really internal hire.  Hey, we didn't even have a GM the past few years....he has to be better than nothing, right?

So now I ask for your expectations.  I don't want us as a community to continue before I at least set my (and encourage you to set your) expectations for the next few months.  Before we start to digress back to convincing ourselves that the next move they make could work out, even though deep down it is against what you really wanted.

The Bills are in a great situation.  We fired Dick Jauron mid season and have had more than enough time to figure out what we do next.  I think Russ Brandon is pretty intelligent, and no matter what I think of Nix, he does seem to be a good football guy.  So here goes:

Head Coaching hire expectations:  I expect the Bills to interview at least 5-6 candidates, expect them to decide based on more than just the interview, and expect our next HC to be an offensive guy (I think the defense here can be good already, not sure about the offense), expect the guy to bring a new attitude, direction and identity to the team, and most importantly have HC experience, although not necesarrily in the NFL. 

Thus, I would be displeased with defensive minded coaches such as:  L. Frazier, R. Rivera, or P. Fewell. 

I would also be displeased with B. Scottenheimer, since he has no prior HC experience anywhere, and I just don't think the Jets offense is anything special.

Expecations met/exceeded if:  Bill Cowher gets the job.  Obviously, this would bring much needed excitement to the team, and if he failed, well, what else could we have done?  I also really like Jim Harbough.  Younger, energetic, offensive guy, plus, if he can take a team like freakin Stanford and consistently beat an all-star talented team like USC, well, your the man in my book.  Jason Garrett would make me happy since I think highly of him as an O-corindator (although the lack of HC experience scares me a bit).  And finally, Brian Billick, while not my favorite candidate, would at least be a proven quantity.

Draft expecatations:  In my opinion, we have to draft an o-lineman in the first 3 rounds.  Also, if we can get our QB of the future in the first 2 rounds, I would also be happy.  I think it goes without saying that if we draft secondary within the 1st 3 rounds, I will set myself on fire.  Also, if the Bills like a guy, but they think they could get him later, I would love for them to stop taking guys earlier than conventional wisdom has them being selected, and at least trade out to get more picks and their guy.

Free Agent expecations:  Need to upgrade linebackers, o-line, and QB.  Either through the draft or free agency.  I think it is imperative to get our QB of the future through the draft, though, if not this year (if you want to draft o-line high instead, I'm good with that) than def next year, and has to be a high pick.

In conclusion, we need a HC and a QB.  After a decade of losing I don't think we can gamble anymore on hiring an unproven HC or draft a QB that isn't at least a 1st or 2nd rounder.  (and who people have heard of and respect, not JP Losman).  I mean, if Seattle can fire their coach and in one freakin week convince a top 3 college coach to come join them, I don't think we should lower our expectations.  I can't sit through another wait-and-see coach/QB.  Football is, at it's core, entertainment, and I want to get excited about the future of this great franchise.  Now that my expecations have been documented, I will not except less!  Please share your expecations so that we will not be allowed to settle later on.

Okay, so I watched yesterday’s game on tv after being there in person.  As I am giving somewhat of a late review, I will give some awards based on what I saw:

Under-rated play-  (These guys played better than they are getting credit for.)

-Bryan Scott-  1 big INT (that actually may have hit the ground), several big run stops, even a few pass breakups, and a tipped pass on the 2 pt conversion late.  Scott was everywhere yesterday.  Very dependable tackler.

-Kyle Williams/Marcus Stroud-  Williams knifed through o-line on a few plays for big run stops and pressure on Leftwich.  Stroud holds the line of scrimmage well and also makes plays.  Good play by the middle of the d-line.  Holding Tampa to 57 rushing yards total after they put up some big numbers last week vs Dallas was truly remarkable.  Congrats to the big guys.

-Fred Jackson-  Under-rated, you say?  You say the media can’t stop talking about his play the past two weeks?  I say it’s still not enough.  Jackson has put up 2 tremendous games.  Especially considering he’s the only RB that defenses focus on.  He catches passes, fights for yards on every play, and doesn’t stop until he hears a whistle.  He’s the team MVP after 2 games.

-Terrence McGee-  Just plain solid all day long.  While you see other Buffalo corners giving huge cushions, McGee closes very quickly, while never giving up big yards after catch.  On a day where it seemed he may not play due to injury, McGee was as solid, if unspectacular, as they come.

Adequately-rated play-  (These guys are getting the attention they deserve.)

-Donte Whitner-  I’m sure nobody was happier yesterday than Whitner (well, until he got home, that is) since he needed a big play and finally delivered.  Some decent hits in the field as well.  Could get to the QB quicker on blitzes, though.

-Trent Edwards-  Very good game, he made all the throws that needed to be made.  Still some room to improve though, the floater INT in middle of field in red zone is a bad one that takes points off scoreboard.  Very good touch on the throws to Owens.  Really lets him run under them.

Over-rated play-  (These guys are not getting called out…and they should.)

-Defensive end pass rush-  Surprise, surprise.  We all know this area has to be better.  Leftwich had too much time, could step up into the pocket, while the defensive ends continuously sped around the end and were taken out of the play.  It was almost comical to see it happen every single pass play.

-Terrell Owens-  Thank god he got involved late, catching the back-breaking long touchdown.  Because aside from that, he dropped a VERY catchable deep pass in the 1st half, and looked uninterested much of the time when the play isn’t for him.  The coaches can’t be happy with his run blocking, can they?  Do they just accept that he doesn’t run block?   Good for the Bills for taking shots deep to Owens though.  That needs to happen at least once a game, regardless of circumstances.

Demetrious Bell-  I know I should have low expectations, since the guy hasn’t played organized football for more than 5 years, but still, I just didn’t see many physical plays from Bell.  Def loved how the guy can pull and move though.  With some experience and toughness, he could be really good.  But wasn’t yesterday.  At least his assignment didn’t really get to Edwards much.

The observations these awards were based on:

1st Quarter:

-Kyle Williams great penetration on run stuff to start game off on the right foot.

-If Youboty catches that “throwback” on the punt return, he’s got open field ahead.  Like the call.

-O-Line getting great drive on run plays so far.  Wood fired up after a good block.

-Throw to Evans on touchdown could have been longer, but it works for 6.  Great concentration to stay inbounds long enough for touchdown.

-Levitre the 3rd guy down the field to congratulate Evans after touchdown.  Not sure if that’s a good thing or not!  Let’s hope he beat his guy quick, then went to second level and right to endzone!

-Anyone else think of past Syracuse linebacker Clifton Smith when Tampa’s Clifton Smith is returning kicks?  Either the SU Smith slimmed down and added some speed, or they are not the same person.

-Stroud sack, he beat o-lineman and Cadillac.  The big man still has it!

-Big hit by McGee on Cadillac on swing pass.  Great open field tackle.  Memories of Winfield.

-No pressure by the defensive ends, instead getting pushed out past Leftwich, who instead is stepping up into pocket and finding time to throw.

-Whitner must have been relieved to have finally made a play!  Right place, right time for Whitner as Leftwich sailed it right to him.  Did it appear to anyone else like the return was in slow motion?

-Marcus Buggs great fill in hole to stop Ward.  Stroud takes on 2 linemen to allow Buggs untouched and gets his helmet knocked off in process.  

-Bills did good job of “selling” INTs this game.  1st was McGee, which went to review but was off the turf.  2nd was Scott, which also looked like it hit the ground, but was upheld as INT.  Wonder if they practice the “selling” of Ints?

-Great job by Edwards escaping pass rush to keep play alive on floater to Owens in end zone but Owens couldn’t come up with it.  Holding on Bell anyway.

2nd Quarter:

-Stroud made tackle 10 yards downfield.  Again, not sure if this is good or bad.  What’s he doing that far back?

-Missed tackle by Buggs in backfield.

-On td pass to Winslow, defensive ends again taken out of play by running to far past QB.

-Lots of fighting on kickoff returns.  Gotta like the energy.

-Great run by Fred Jackson, hit at line of scrimmage, guys think play is dead, Jackson keeps running for 8 yards.  Great lead-by-example type play. 

-Gotta love T.O. being animate about going for it on 4th and 1 yard.

-Almost a repeat of Edwards to Evans as it is just out of reach.  Much props for playcalling, especially throwing it up and letting Evans try to go up and get it.  Memories of JP to Evans vs Jets 2 years ago.  Evans is making 9 mill a year, let him earn it.

-Levitre beat by Chris Hovan, one on one, but Edwards still had adequate time.  Incomplete pass.

-Solid tackle by McGee.  1 yard pickup.  No yards after catch for anyone McGee covering today.

-Dropped INT by McKelvin.  We will only support so many mistakes buddy!  (although it will only take 1 good play to get us back.  We’re easy like that.)

-Leftwich just making some bad throws right now. Making the defense look better.

-Another heads up run by Fred Jackson, toeing the out-of-bounds line for more yards.  Gritty running.

-Wow.  Won’t see a worse drop this year than Owens’ long pass play.  Watched that replay with my hands over my eyes…frightening!

-By the way, Trent threw that ball at least 50 yards in the air.  To all the haters of his arm strength out there, Trent puts the issue to bed.  (although the dopes will continue to call the radio shows and complain about the lack of arm strength)

-Another long pass to Evans!  Are these the same Bills?  By my count that is 4 deep passes already.  Only 1 caught, but still.

-Really not impressed with Terrell Owens blocking on run plays.  Not sure you can even call it blocking.  In fact, while at the game I watched Owens a few plays and if he is not intended receiver…well, he’s uninterested to say the least.

-Numerous Jackson second efforts today.  Great to see.  Bills better keep blocking until the whistle with this guy running.  Great pull block by Levitre.

-Pitch-out to Jackson for 1 yard.  Bell pulls, but hits nobody.

-Edwards doesn’t slide on run, takes big shot.  Or maybe delivers big shot?  Nice 20 yard run.

-Great job by Parrish to save a touchdown that he may have helped create with a bad block.  Jackson fumbles (“whoop!” In best Berman voice), and Parrish chases down Tampa defender.  Memories of Don Beebe.

-What a momentum change on the fumble.  Goes from red zone for Buffalo to Tampa touchdown right before halftime.

-If you were at the stadium, did you notice that Omon has different music playing before kickoff returns than McKelvin does?  Was waiting for “Put on” but got a different tune.  It’s sorta like WWF wrestling matches, with the different theme music.  Maybe they should make it theatrical.  “McKelvin back to receive kick…oh wait, I hear Omon’s theme music come on the speakers….he emerges from the tunnel and takes out McKelvin….

3rd Quarter:

-Bills come out really flat in second half.

-Schoebel gets pushed to outside, behind Leftwich again.  What else is new?

-Good open field tackle/pass breakup by Youboty.

-Another toss right to Jackson, another pull by Bell and no block.  Personal foul for facemask saves a 2 yard loss.

-O-lineman Scott can’t maintain block long, Edwards gets sacked.  Again, decent time though.

-Good pass breakup by Reggie Corner even though the blitz didn’t get there in time.

-Maybin swim move, pushed too far outside.  Leftwich steps up and makes throw.  See a pattern here?  Guess it’s not just limited to Kelsay & Schobel.

-Great penetration and snap count anticipation by K. Mitchell on 4th and 1.  Good stout stop by Whitner.

-Terrible floater by Edwards picked off.  Can’t even see how that could be Evans fault it was so bad.  Drive killed, no points.

-Bryan Scott eluding Winslow block for backfield tackle.  Loss of 3 yards.

-Corner blitzes untouched, but doesn’t make the play.  Leftwich steps up and makes throw underhand somehow.  Kyle Williams and Stroud in backfield as well.

4th Quarter:

-Hated the 3rd and 10 from the 13 yard line screen pass call.  Just terrible.  Does that ever work?  I say no.  Throw to the endzone, but put it so either your guy catches it or nobody does so that you don’t kill the field goal.

-Finally, Kelsay with a QB hit!  (yes, we are cheering QB hits now!)  Still no sign of Schobel though.  If you see him, please call his family, they are concerned.

-Man, T.O. can really fire up a crowd!  Even one of the security guards is pumped when he beats Aqib Teleb (no easy task) one on one and Edwards drops it right in for the touchdown.  Great play all around.  Even decent coverage.

-Missed tackle by Ellison on Cadillac screen pass.

-Nice open field tackle by Bryan Scott on Winslow.  Even Daryl Johnston remarks that not many missed tackles in this defensive backfield of the Bills today.

-Kelsay stunts, gets in on Leftwich unblocked, wraps his arms around him and….slides around him like a stripper doing a pole dance!  (I’ve heard that’s how it looks, haven’t seen it myself, of course.)  Leftwich gets pass off…first down!  Never seen anything like it.  Was 3rd and 10, too.

-Tampa doing good job picking up Buffalo blitzes.

-Good job by Kelsay and Ellison demolishing Leftwich on screen pass.  Incomplete.  Update on Schobel:  We received a call from his cell phone, but could not trace the signal.  Still missing.  May have to get FBI involved in this one.

-Fantastic catch by Stovall.  Went up and got it, even with decent coverage by Corner.

-1st and goal from the 5 yard line, here is the sequence:  1.)  Stroud run stop.  2.)  Mitchell blitzes (superfast), Leftwich somehow throws it out of bounds before getting killed. 3.)  Corner forces Stovall out of bounds on jumpball, no more force out rule.  4.)  And on 4th down, TE Stevens blocks, then releases and Leftwich throws lob in middle of field for touchdown.  So close to a big hold for Defense.

-Bryan Scott tipped pass on 2 pt conversion to keep it a 2 score game for Tampa.  Big play.

-What the hell was the kickoff by Tampa?  Was it a squib kick?  On sides kick?  Did they just try to hit a Bills player and have it bounce back?  We may never know.  Odd.

-Whenever I watch Bell block, I never see him really hit somebody.  Maybe I’m just not watching the right plays.

-Again, T.O. proves to be a somewhat unwilling run blocker.  In fact, Fred Jackson, in one of his never-stop-the-feet-moving plays, almost runs him over!  Either block or get out of the way!

-Mo and Keita in the house!  Jumbotron shows them.  Receives mild cheers.

-McGee steps in front of pass, but can’t hang on!  Very catchable ball, but good job by McGee in stepping into passing lane.

-Okay, call off the FBI Criminal Minds team!  We have a Schobel sighting!  He hits Leftwich!  And hits him in the head.  Anyway you can do it, I’ll take it.

-Corner can’t hang on to a low pass.

-Ellison comes on a blitz, misses Leftwich, but Denney does get the sack.

-Bryan Scott pass breakup. 

-End of game.

Hi Everyone, new to the board and being a "dreamer" (my first post was about getting Julius Peppers in here) and hearing the news about Michael Crabtree's foot stress fracture injury today I pose this hypothetical:

If Crabtree somehow falls to Buffalo's pick (ala Matt Leinhart), do we pull the trigger on the gamechanger and best WR in the draft? 

I would be pulling for them to take him in this scenario....but others may disagree?

Also, is anyone else sick of hearing people say what Turk Schonert said in todays Buff News about Lee Evans, "In our division they know who our big threat is.  Its Lee Evans.  So what are they going to do?  They're goind to take him away.  They are going to make you beat them in other ways."

By this statement, I guess the rest of the league doesn't know Larry Fitzgerald is Arizona's big threat, Andre Johnson is Houston's big threat, Steve Smith is Carolina's big threat, etc.  These guys still make big plays even though they are the focus of every defensive co-ordinator.  I'm sick of that being an excuse for Lee Evans.  Big time players make big time plays.

Great forum everyone.  Love reading and look forward to your comments.