Hey, all. I just committed to UMD two weeks ago as a journalism major. I've been passively interested in the Terrapins and have a decent base of college basketball knowledge, but I'm trying to get a better sense of exactly what the expectations are for the basketball team next year. I'm a big fan of Stoglin's game, and I know enough about recruiting to understand that Cleare, Mitchell and Layman are good future pieces for a contending team. But I haven't followed the team especially closely, so I'd like to educate myself a bit before I hit campus in the fall.

With this in mind, can anyone describe the basic tenor of expectations for the basketball team next year? Can they stand a reasonable shot at contending for an ACC crown? Better? Worse?

I'm a devout Pitt fan, but I swear I'll drop that obsession starting next year. Thanks for your help. Go Terps!

Former Pirate Chris Snyder has quietly gone unsigned since free agency started last month. The Pirates rightly declined a $6.75M option on his deal with them. Snyder is worth nowhere near that, and there hasn't been much fuss about them cutting him loose. That said, I'm pretty confident he'd sign for around half that (or less) if the Pirates were one of only a few teams willing to give him a Major League deal (one-year) for 2012.

There are a few arguments against this, which I understand. First, he profiles pretty similarly to Rod Barajas, in that he's a high-strikeout catcher with respectable defense and some power. Second, he isn't likely to be a part of the next winning Pirates team. And third, there are probably better things in the world for this franchise to be doing than spending a combined $7-8 million on mediocre veteran catchers like Barajas and Snyder.

But there are also positives to the idea, and I think they outweigh the negatives. Snyder has a much better plate approach than Barajas and is a pretty good bet to walk more and post an OBP at least 20 points better. This is all while playing pretty comparable defense, which could admittedly be questionable because of his bad back. If Snyder plays 75 games and hits seven or eight home runs and Barajas hits 10 or so the rest of the season, that's solid pop between your two catchers.

Most importantly, Snyder's better than Michael McKenry by virtually any measure. McKenry had a neat little run last summer, but he can't hit and doesn't bring anything all that special defensively. His defense is good, sure, but I'd bet it doesn't add the Pirates even a half win over what Snyder would bring in a similar number of games played. McKenry is a AAAA player, whereas Snyder is a legitimate Major League catcher.

The Pirates have money to spend, and if they're not going to use it to find some way to get Kevin Correia out of their starting rotation, they should look into bringing back Snyder. He would go a long way toward giving the Pirates insurance that they put out a respectable Major League lineup all year and don't rely on McKenry and his inevitable .270 OBP. That's worth a few million dollars.

Pedro Alvarez isn't the only excellent college hitter to struggle mightily his first few years in the Majors. There have been dozens more, and while many have flamed out, none pose a better hopeful comparison to Alvarez's career trajectory than Alex Gordon, the Kansas City Royals' left fielder.

Charlie wrote about this comparison in 2009 and, as it turns out, perfectly portended Alvarez's current predicament:

It appears Gordon could have used more time in the minors, and we'd do well to consider that with Alvarez. His stint at Lynchburg raised plenty of questions about his ability to control the strike zone, but his play so far as Class AA Altoona (.326/.411/.560) closely resembles Gordon's Class AA line. The Pirates seem likely to resist the temptation to promote Alvarez straight to the majors next year, and I think they're right to do that. Gordon's example shows the potential hazards in moving a player like Alvarez up too quickly, and Alvarez could probably stand to have at least a couple months at Class AAA before he's called up.

He wasn't just spitballing something, either. Alvarez and Gordon are remarkably similar cases. Their career Fangraphs and B-Ref pages look a lot alike, everywhere from BABIP (.010 difference) to walk rate (0.6% difference.). Aside from their batted ball rates, their profiles look too much alike to ignore. Even their timelines are the same; Gordon was born almost exactly three years before Alvarez, and he debuted in the Majors around three years and two months before Alvarez.  

Both were second overall picks who signed huge bonuses, Gordon coming from Nebraska and Alvarez from Vanderbilt. Both were third basemen who fielded their positions poorly. Both had huge power potential, and while they had some contact concerns (Alvarez moreso than Gordon), they had the plate patience and swings to post solid OBPs in the big leagues. Gordon came three years before Alvarez, being drafted in 2005.  

In Gordon's first year in the minors, at AA, he hit .325/.427/.588, for an OPS of 1.016 in the hitter-friendly Texas League. In Alvarez's first pro season, which he split between high A and AA, he hit .288/.278/.535 for a .914 OPS in the much less hitter-friendly Carolina and Eastern Leagues.  

When Gordon debuted in Kansas City after his one minor league season, he wasn't good, but he wasn't terrible. In a full season, he had a 90 OPS+, but UZR rated him surprisingly well to give him an overall fWAR of 2.1. Alvarez put up worse defensive numbers but a better 112 OPS+ in his rookie season, coming out to 1.7 fWAR in 95 games. Gordon's rookie season was odd, because he didn't turn out to be a good third baseman, but did become a good hitter. 

As a rookie three years later, Alvarez struck out too much and didn't field third base well, and Gordon didn't hit well, but also didn't hit horribly. They each had relatively lukewarm rookie seasons, but optimism still abounded for their futures.  

Gordon, in his sophomore year, improved his bat (109 OPS+) and saw his fielding at third base tank, which led to an overall improvement of about a half a win, to 2.5 WAR, in two fewer weeks worth of games than he played as a rookie.

After Gordon's third season, though, and in Pedro's second, they both collapsed. Gordon posted mid-80's OPS+ numbers that season, and Alvarez has been even worse this season, with a putrid 54. Gordon was a negative fielder at third base by 2.5 runs, which is a little better than Alvarez's likely -4 for this season. Gordon was slightly better, but he still played at almost exactly replacement level during that season and the one that followed. Alvarez hasn't even done that this year.

After Gordon logged his worst season ever in 2009, the Royals demoted him for much of 2010. He crushed the minors, and when he came back this season, he was fully a left fielder. He's rated as a plus-plus defender in his new position, and his bat has finally come around, too. Whether his experience helped him or he adjusted in the minor leagues, I'm not sure. But something clicked, because he's got a 137 OPS+ this season and is one of the better players in baseball.  

The season Gordon's having is what we all want Alvarez to eventually reach, all the way down to Alvarez's very likely future positional switch to first base. Like Gordon, Pedro's a bad fielder at third. Like Gordon, Alvarez has struggled big-time after a solid rookie season and very, very quick ascent through the minors.

Really, the most glaring difference between the two is that Gordon's already rebounded after hitting a nadir. Pedro hasn't gotten there yet, but players like Gordon (who were really, really bad for two seasons) represent a significant source of hope for what he could ultimately be.

First off, it's good to be on Bucs Dugout again.  I don't have much computer access for the summer, and I don't like posting comments from a phone, so it's nice to read some of the comment threads now that I have a computer again for a few days.  It's an exciting time to be a Pirates fan, even if you're not the type to get excited about a .500 record.

It seems that the Pirates are in a position to make additions rather than subtractions this trading season.  While I think it would be monumentally stupid to move a frontline prospect for offensive help, there are other ways to add talent to the current Major League club.  I've seen the Beltran and Pena ideas, and I like them, but there's another player who could be similarly helpful for much less money: Juan Rivera.

Toronto DFA'd him today when they brought Travis Snider back to the Majors.  Rivera has an unimpressive overall line this year, and he's a defensive monstrosity.  That said, he owns a 169 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and a solid 118 figure for his career.  

Obviously, my thought is that he'd do exactly what Matt Diaz was signed up for but failed miserably at doing.  He could platoon with Presley when Tabata comes back, sending Jones to platoon at first base with Pearce.  Overbay could be gone, and the lineup would be significantly improved.

Rivera would probably come cheap.  I'm sure the Phillies and some other teams will be interested, but I think Neal Huntington would be remiss to not call Alex Anthopolous Rivera's agent.  He could provide immediate help for next to nothing in return.

The Pirates haven't gotten anything out of MLB's compensation system since they've traded all their impending Type A/B free agents before they've reached free agency. This year, though, it seems possible that at least one or two of the Pirates impending veteran free agents (Ryan Doumit, Chris Snyder, Paul Maholm) will be kept until the end of the year.  

That's because Doumit, Snyder, and Maholm are all currently in standings to be Type A free agents, meaning that if any of them stayed that way through the end of the year in free agency and then walked, the Pirates would get a first- or second-round pick in return from the team that took them, in addition to a compensation-round pick.

Obviously, there's a fair chance that any of these three could lose Type A status. We're only a third of the way through the season.  

Jose Veras also sits Type A at the moment, as per the rankings.

MLBTR has the current Elias rankings for who would take what status in free agency.

The current statuses of Doumit, Maholm, and Snyder make it even tougher to tell if they'll be traded. Keep in mind that all three have a good shot at being Type B free agents if they lose Type A standing.  

Remember that some pretty mediocre players have pulled in comp. picks in recent years. Rod Barajas, Gerald Laird, Gregg Zaun, Jason Varitek, and Miguel Olivo have recently qualified as Type B's. Ramon Hernandez and Bengie Molina have been Type A's.  

In short, it seems likely that if the Pirates hang onto their catchers and/or Maholm, they'll get picks back, which could be worth more than any prospect packages they'd get in return for them.

I'm going to be spending nine weeks this summer working in Morgantown.  I want to be able to watch the Pirates during this timeframe.  I am looking for help from the Morgantown-or-thereabouts contingency of the Bucs Dugout community. So, I have two questions for anyone who can answer:

1) Does Morgantown get Root Sports with a clear picture?

2) Are the Pirates blacked out on MLB.tv in Morgantown?

As always, any help is greatly appreciated.  

Alex

Fangraphs has the first two weeks worth of 2011 UZR data up on its leaderboards today.  Obviously, such a small sample size is inconsequential in the long term, but it does tell us a little bit about the range we've seen so far. Predictably, there is both good news and bad news.  Keep in mind that these numbers are often very inflated for being so early on in the year.

The good: 

-CF Andrew McCutchen has a 16.5 runs above average UZR/150, basically flipped from his totals last year.  That's seventh in the league.

-LF Jose Tabata is at 29.3.  That's fourth best behind defensive wizards Delmon Young, Carlos Lee, and Logan Morrison.  Okay, not really, but Tabata seems a lot less likely to fall flat on his face in the field as those three.

-SS Ronny Cedeno is at 2.1.  I think we can all agree that he's been terrible in the field, but maybe it is mental if he has good range.

-RF Matt Diaz is at 47.8.  That will obviously be a huge regression, but he's been okay so far.

The okay:

--3B Pedro Alvarez is at -6.5, which is lousy but still represents an improvement on what we all expected.

-2B Neil Walker is at -9.1, which is also lousy but an improvement on last year.

The bad:

-1B Lyle Overbay is near the bottom of the league at -11.6.  He will most likely improve on that, though.

-RF Garrett Jones is at -16.1.  Gorkys Hernandez is salivating.

All in all, we can draw that McCutchen and Tabata are going to be pretty good fielders.  Cedeno, Diaz, and Overbay are up in the air.  Walker, Jones, and Alvarez will all be below average, but we don't know by how much.

Since this game's on TV, I figure a game thread is acceptable, right? 

Now I'm going to make it so that this post reaches 75 words. go bucs go bucs go bucs go bucs go bucs go bucs yeah yeah go bucs yeah yeah yeah yea yea yea yea yea cutch tabata pedro mackowiak van der wal welcome to brandenton jose tabata.  I still need more words is this serious oh my god now i am really embarrassed okay i have enough.

Word has come out today that Billy Beane has acquired Josh Willingham in a trade.  Willingham will now be Oakland's starting left fielder and, though he has injury concerns, will play pretty much every day.  They have Coco Crisp coming off a solid year in center field, and they just traded for David DeJesus to play right field.  They signed Hideki Matsui to be their designated hitter yesterday, and they have two excellent corner OF prospects who are close to the Majors in Michael Taylor and Chris Carter.  Conor Jackson is going to make over 3M to be their fifth outfielder, as things stand now.

This brings me to the player of consequence here, Ryan Sweeney.  He was worth 4 WAR just two years ago before having  an injury-shortened disaster of a campaign in 2010.  Still, he's just 25, has a 19.5 career UZR in right field, and is a good bet for a .330 wOBA.  

Oakland has a huge surplus, and it's likely Sweeney will be the odd man out in the outfield (no pun).  

The Pirates are set to give the majority of their RF time to Matt Diaz and Garrett Jones.  Both of them are okay players who can contribute in a platoon, but Sweeney is a potential stud who's really stock-down at the moment.

I don't know what Beane wants for him, but there's no way Sweeney's not on the market.  

I'd like to imagine Huntington's on the phone with him right now.

Thoughts?

Over the winter here, the Pirates will have the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft.  Huntington has so far taken a player each year on the job, hitting big on Evan Meek, getting a player of mild intrigue in Donnie Veal, and then striking out on John Raynor last year.  Assuming the Pirates are willing to pay the claim fee (Nutting's pretty cheap, you know!), do we have anything at this point on what they should be looking at?  I suppose another all-glove shortstop is a possibility.  They'll need to hide whoever they pick on the roster all year, of course.

Thoughts?

I'm going to neglect the Zack Greinke-type trade talk for now, and we all the Pirates aren't going to be in on Jayson Werth or Cliff Lee in free agency.  An increase in payroll is inevitable.  We don't know how much, but I'm assuming it has to be at least 8-10 million dollars.  The speculation from Dejan and most elsewhere is that a power bat in right field or at first base and a good (I use that adjective cautiously)  starting pitcher are likely to be sought after from the outside.  

I'm going to focus on the pitchers for a minute.

The Tampa Bay Rays are going to be losing payroll.  They did it last year with Iwamura, and especially if they're going to try and keep Crawford (which Desmond Jennings may make them not do), they're going to need to move a starting pitcher.  They have Jeremy Hellickson ready right now and making peanuts for the next several seasons, so the natural move is to trade some one or both of Matt Garza (3.35 this year going into arb) and James Shields (4.25M with 7M option for 2012).

Garza this year: 6.56 K/9, 2.92 BB/9, 4.01 ERA, 4.47 xFIP, 1.4 WAR, 

Shields this year: 8.47 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 4.86 ERA, 3.69 xFIP, 2.2 WAR.

It needs to be noted that Shields has been extraordinarily unlucky this season.  He's giving up 1.54 HR/9 compared to just 1.2 for his career.   That can be attributed to 14% of his flyballs allowed going over the fence, which is well over his 11% career average.  The xFIP/ERA disparity also reeks of someone who's been wronged by great swings and shoddy defense.  He's had a lousy ERA, but I think pitched much better than that.  He's been tagged for a .347 BABIP, while his career average is .314.  This is all in spite of very little change in his LD/GB/FB rates.  It's unexplainable as anything but bad luck.

Garza has a much better ERA than Shields, but a much worse xFIP.  I'm not trying to be too much of a saber-oriented stats geek, but I think Shields has actually pitched better.  Baseball traditionalists won't agree with me, but unfortunately, Tampa's GM, Andrew Friedman, isn't Ned Colletti and he may not give up pitchers with great stuff for less value just because of a bad ERA.  Garza is a nice pitcher, but not as good as Shields.  Determining who has more value will be sort of difficult, since none of us know how much Friedman will look into the numbers I've looked at.  I'm assuming he's smarter than me and that he will look.

A little more background: Shields has a fastball that gets hit hard and lives on a great changeup.  Shields throws a tick over 91 most of the time with his heater.  Garza thrives on a 95 mph fastball.

The Rays are going to move a pitcher.  Garza and Shields are going to be the most expensive ones on their staff, and Hellickson is probably better than both.  Since they're going to need to cut some payroll there to keep Crawford and address first base, one of Garza/Shields, possibly both, is going to be traded.  I'm almost certain of it.  They won't move Price, and Davis is probably too inexpensive to be considered trade bait.  Niemann seems unlikely to go, either, for a lack of service time filled and not being very expensive himself.  They have an absurd amount of pitching in their farm system even after Hellickson.

So, I have two questions for you:

a) Who is more valuable in a trade -- Garza or Shields?

b) Who fits the Pirates better from a money viewpoint?  Shields is signed for two more years, and Garza's in arbitration.  Shields made more this year.  

c) What would you give up in the following trades?  Garza, Shields, and both of them. 

The Major League product this year has been terrible.  We all know this, and there's no sense in not getting it out of the way early on in this post.  With that in mind, the Pirates could have a chance to be 10-20 games better next year, or they could once again flop.  There is a lot of uncertainty, and it's all because we don't know what exactly to expect from so many of the current players at the ML level, much less the cast of AA pitchers who are likely to show up sometime next year.  

So, this is a sort of sabermetric, part-eye test look at what we should expect next year.  It should be a good platform for debate.  I'll focus on the potential core hitters and pitchers only.  I don't have enough time to do everyone.

Andrew McCutchen, CF-  Cutch was a top prospect for years, and his performance last year upon being called up surpassed even the lofty expectations that were set out for him  He put up 3.3 WAR by means of tremendous average, speed, and power for a CF.  He whacked 12 home runs in 106 games, and hit for a tremendous .368 wOBA.  Through the start of this year, he looked to be only improving.  Since then, unfortunately, he's tanked it.  In 22 more games this year, he has the same number of home runs and only a .349 wOBA, which is still above average but not as good as his five tools indicate it should be.  

Even still, Cutch is only 23 and will continue to get better.  He's had a few terrible months on this terrible team, but players as talented as him don't usually get held down for long.  He has been held down by a .305 BABIP that is the lowest of his career in any sustained minor or major league playing time.  I think 4-5 WAR is very reasonable for him next year, and he should be an All-Star.  My judgement:  McCutchen will be just fine, and he will be a premier center fielder for years to come.

His defense has been a concern this year.  If the Pirates teach him up, his speed should make him a wizard in the outfield.  Whether that happens or not is anyone's guess.  Offensively, though, I see no reason for concern.

 Projected 2011: .375-.385 wOBA, 15-20 HR, a slightly improved UZR, 5 WAR.

Jose Tabata, LF-  Tabata has been every kind of outstanding since being called up in June.  He has lived up to his top prospect pedigree, and like McCutchen last year, surpassed it.  Tabata's .350 BABIP is not out of line with his minor league numbers, nor is any part of his solid .347 wOBA, 14 steals, good defense, or .310 average and .361 OBP.  In fact, Tabata has outperformed those numbers in the minors.  I see no reason to expect regression from him, and I think improvement into an All-Star-type player over a full season is very possible.  He's been worth 2.1 WAR in 74 games.  He only has four home runs, but if you've watched him, you've seen the great authority with which he hits the ball.  

Projected 2011: .350 wOBA, 10-15 HR, .310/.365./.440, 4 WAR

Neil Walker, 2B- Walker is extraordinarily athletic and has a smooth swing, so his .366 BABIP may not be completely out of the realm of possibility for him to sustain close to.  It will probably come down a little bit, but I see his BABIP always being above average.  He simply hits the ball harder than most.  It will go down a little bit, though; it has to.  His walk rate is 6%, which is terrible and will stick out a lot of he starts getting unlucky with balls put in play.  He has very good power for a 2B with 9 HR in less than a full season's work, and that is very sustainable with room for improvement.  His defense has been bad by UZR, but he's just learning the position and will improve marginally for next year.  His walk rate and OBP are still big concerns, and they'll ultimately determine if he's an Ian Kinsler or a Ryan Theriot.   Walker's future is incredibly uncertain.  The sky is the limit, but he won't get there if he can't raise his walk rate.

Projected 2011: .330-.360 wOBA (depending on walks, mostly), 15-20 HR,  OBP anywhere from .330 to .370, 3 WAR.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B- I don't think anyone questions Alvarez's place in the Pirates' plans, but whether or not he becomes an elite offensive force or merely an above average one depends on his OBP.  Remember that he is a slow starter, but Pedro has only a .311 OBP this season.  His walk rate is good at 11.3%, but his K rate is a cover-your-eyes, Mark Reynolds-like 38%.  It's tough to imagine a scenario in which that doesn't shrink at least a little bit, but Pedro would be well served to get it down a lot.  If he could get his strikeouts to his minor league average of around 27%, his usually solid BABIP (.330 this year, consistent with minors) would lead to something around a .350 OBP, which, coupled with his already good and even more projectable power, would make him one of the game's best third basemen at the plate.  Alvarez has had a poor debut season overall, but there's a lot of cause for optimism with him.  He only has 10 HR, but that could very well be over 30 in a full year in 2011.

Projected 2011: .380 wOBA, 30 HR, .250./.350./520.  3-6 WAR.

Garrett Jones, 1B/RF- Jones is the least likely of all these guys to be a part of the "core."  He doesn't hit lefties well, but does have good power with a team leading 20 HR.  Jones is probably an average to above average compliment when used correctly.  His wOBA is only .318, and he's a sort of old-ish 29.  I don't think the Pirates should be banking on him.  He strikes out a lot (20%), and only walks in 8% of his AB.  He's also nothing special in the field.  HIs .309 OBP also won't cut it in any way.

Projected 2011: .320 wOBA, 20 HR, .260/.315./430.  

And now the pitchers:

James McDonald- His ERA is bad, but J-Mac has pitched excellently in his first month as a Buc.  He has an awesome 2.91 FIP on the strength of almost 10 K/9, 3.4/BB/9, and .26 HR/9 with the team.  Those are all great numbers, and given McDonald's good velocity and command of his breaking ball, not really unsustainable.  He'll probably give up a few more home runs, but he's got a lot of talent.  The ERA is only bad because Doumit and Milledge have both undone one of his starts with abhorrent plays in right field that have let big innings get off the ground against him.  McDonald can be a good number three starter. 

Projected 2011: 3.5-4.5 ERA, similar K/BB numbers as he has now, and hopefully double-digit wins (not that they really matter as a stat)

Ross Ohlendorf-  Ohlendorf has had the worst luck imaginable this year.  He's had three freak injuries and the team has saddled him with only one win and double-digit losses.  Ohlie has good stuff, but his 4.47 FIP is not as good as his ERA of 4.07.  This is two years in a row that he's put up a good enough ERA in spite of a bad FIP, which is kind of weird and unexpcted.  We'll see if he improves or regresses next year.  His sinker makes him worth the rotation spot.

Projected 2011: 4-5 ERA, 4.5-5 FIP.

On the relief pitchers, I'll make a broad generalization.  Joel Hanrahan is awesome, Evan Meek isn't far behind, and Chris Resop is very good.  Wil Ledezma may or may not be any good.  The rest of them, without fail, are not worth the Pirates' time as relievers.  Dan McCutchen is the only other potentially useful guy there, and he's better as a starter.  

I'm interested in your agreements or disagreements with me.

Muffle your laughter, please.  

I've been a pretty vocal critic of McLouth for a few years, even when he was on what is now clear was a very flukey ride to an All-Star season and Gold Glove in 2008.  There are a few reasons I've never cared that much for him as a player, with the biggest being his statuesque range in center field.  He's also small, which made his power spurt in Pittsburgh very suspect.  His meltdown with the Braves this year got him demoted to AAA, where he's batting all of .234.  

So, with me saying all this, why even float the idea of reacquiring him from Atlanta?

• McLouth has pop in his bat.  It's been utterly absent in Atlanta this year, but he does have five dingers in his month in AAA, which suggests that he might have some power left in the tank.
• He could probably be had for next to nothing.  The Braves think poorly enough of him that he's in the minors while they're in a pennant race and giving playing time to...wait for it...Matt Diaz, Rick Ankiel, Melky Cabrera, and Eric Hinske.  That's getting pretty low.  They also have Jordan Schafer, who's cut from the same cloth as McLouth.
• He had his best days in Pittsburgh and was decent for them as recently as 15 months ago. 
• He thrived playing for a bad team, which the Pirates unquestionably are.  Maybe getting out of the bright lights could do him good.  Even if he's only one of the better players on a bad team, he's something.
• He could play good defense in right field and be a great platoon partner for Milledge.  There's also the possibility that he simply plays better, rebounds for a 2 WAR season or so, and could be traded again or hold a place until Lambo or Marte reaches the Majors.
• He would make Ryan Doumit irrelevant.  His contract would be easier to pay if Doumit was traded.

Huntington loves to buy low.  I know it's extremely unlikely, but if Atlanta would pay part of his contract (Nate is due 6.5M next year and has a 10M option for 2012) or take money back, would you swing a deal for him?  I'm thinking something of similar value to Doumit would be enough.  Or maybe an Adcock or Pribanic type low minors deal. 

Remember that this is strictly a baseball move, not some kind of lovable homecoming.   I have no interest in revering him as anything more than what he once was and could be: a fair complimentary player.

Let's ignore platoon splits and trade possibilities for a second.  With the players they have in place right now on their roster, what is the most statistically effective lineup John Russell could put together?  

The premise of this comes from numbers out of "The Book" by Tom Tango.  In it, he goes over what the most likely run probabilities would be with players of various wOBA in different spots in the order.  

Again, this is all statistical and based on an average team, but here's what his computers came up with.  I will use a BA/OBP/SLG triple slash with wOBA to follow:  I am arbitrarily excluding the ninth spot in the order.

Optimal Batting Order for League Average Team:

1) .273/.439/.439, .407 wOBA

2) .298/.390./.529, .405 wOBA

3) .275/.326/.466, .352 wOBA

4). 298/.362./,578, .407 wOBA

5) .260/364./.396, .351 wOBA

6. .250/.316/.402, .326 wOBA

7. .242/.307./.389, .316 wOBA

8. .234/.298./.377, .307 wOBA

Now, you're problem wondering how he got to these numbers.  I was, too, and he explains it pretty well.  For instance, home runs by hitters in the cleanup spot produce a 1.47 run expectancy, whereas the same home run by the eighth hitter only carries with it a 1.29 run expectancy.  Things like that.  

Singles are worth the most if they're hit by the first and second hitters, both carrying singles at a 0.515 run expectancy.  Walks are worth the most out of the leadoff spot, and doubles are most valuable from cleanup..

An out carries with it the most negative value at leadoff at -0.328 runs expected, and an out hurts the least in the eight spot at -0.286.  Strikeouts are worst in the cleanup spot at -0.332, the second worst spot for strikeouts being leadoff.

Tango and his colleagues came to these conclusions over thousands of logged games from decades worth of game collection.  He plugged the numbers into a computer model, and he was able to come up with precise run values for game events as they happen to players in different spots in the batting order.  

There's a full chart available in his book, which I really recommend to anyone.  The chart shows run values for every single spot in the order in every base/out state for every event.  

Okay, how do we apply this to the Pirates?  Firstly, it all depends on if you believe in playing the percentages or not.  If you want to be conventional and just put your most power at cleanup and the worst hitter batting eighth, that's fine, but let's say we want to put the best possible run expectancy on the field.  

The book stresses that your leadoff hitter is only likely to lead off once in the entire game, and the order needs to be treated as a continuous loop.

Looking back to the optimal lineup that Tango came up with, we can make a few conclusions.  I am going to take some results from the month of July, for the simple reason that so much of the Pirates' lineup is so raw and anything earlier is even more skewed by lack of experience.  

• Your best hitters should be batting, in no particular order, in the first, second, and fourth spots.  This comes from wOBA.  The Pirates' best wOBA hitters this year have been McCutchen, Jones, and Milledge, .  This is sort of difficult to apply to the Pirates since so many players are still developing (Tabata, Alvarez, and Walker, to be specific), but as of right now, the Pirates would be best served with McCutchen leading off, Milledge batting second, and Jones at cleanup.  The catch is that Pedro Alvarez is very likely to be more efficient than Jones eventually, but for the right now, Jones has had more sustained success.  Again, this shouldn't necessarily happen, just because it's not smart to make results-oriented lineup decisions involving rookie players.
• You worst hitter should bat eighth.  Come on down, Ronny Cedeno.  
• Your fourth best hitter should bat third.  Especially with how he's been hitting lately, welcome to the three-hole, Pedro Alvarez.
• Your fifth best hitter should bat fifth, preferably with decent power.  This is Doumit.
• Your sixth best hitter should bat sixth.  I'd call this spot for Jose Tabata.  After a little more than a month in the Majors, Tabata has turned it on and has a .345 wOBA for the last two weeks and deserves this spot.  I like him 
• That leaves Neil Walker for the seventh spot, where I can't help but think his bat would play very, very well.

Again, this doesn't factor in the future, just right now, as in for the next few weeks of this season.  I'm not saying that this should be next year's opening day lineup.  In fact, I'm almost certain it won't be.
Anyway, here's the Pirates' optimal lineup, strictly derived from run expectancy percentages.  I'm using recent months for some players because they show them playing like additional playing experience suggests they could.

1. Andrew McCutchen, .358 wOBA

2. Lastings Milledge, .394 wOBA in June, .410 wOBA in July (!)

3. Pedro Alvarez, .399 wOBA in July (!.)

4. Garrett Jones, .337 wOBA

5. Ryan Doumit, .329 wOBA

6. Jose Tabata, .345 wOBA last two weeks

7. Neil Walker, .328 wOBA

8. Ronny Cedeno, .287 wOBA (.520 in July, but won't stay even close to that)

That lineup actually doesn't look too farfetched to me, and the percentages say that it's optimal for scoring runs.  The glaring thing is that it takes Tabata's speed out of the top of the lineup, but once again, it needs to be considered that the order is a continuous loop.  

Long-term, a few things are almost certain to change.  Optimally, Alvarez will be an ideal cleanup hitter and Tabata will stay in the top two.  Right now, though, this is what should theoretically score the most runs.This is all numbers, not subjective opinion.  Subjectively, I like Doumit at seven and Tabata at two, but the numbers disagree.

What do you think?

  P.S. Sorry for the longness.  I appreciate it if you've actually read this, as always.