SB Nation User Blog: SuperContext

Lil' Wayne picks Cubs to go all the way

SuperContext — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 19:09:46 -0000

Lil' Wayne picks Cubs to go all the way

If Lil' Wayne thinks its gonna happen....

On the Road Again

SuperContext — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 17:24:37 -0000

Interesting article by Jayson Stark today on the reason for such a huge home-road disparity so far this year in major league baseball. He discusses a number of possible factors, but I tend to agree most with the conclusion that it is simply a fluke. I seriously doubt that the disparity will persist (at least not as strikingly as it currently is) up to the last day of the season.

My only real quibble with the article is that it gives short shrift (just a bullet-point mention) to the one theory that may be the real culprit - the horrible scheduling this year. It just stands to reason that when a computer-generated schedule has a team criss-crossing the country without rhyme or reason it is going to take a toll, as we saw earlier this year with some of the Cubs zany road trips. Another possibility is that some of baseball's better teams have simply, by chance, played more home games, but I haven't run the numbers on that to see if the theory pans out.

I'm interested to see what others here think is the cause of this unusual league-wide split.

OT: Nate Silver of BP fame is a chili pepper

SuperContext — Fri, 30 May 2008 17:35:13 -0000

Today, one of the hottest political bloggers and electoral math analysts, previously going only by the name "poblano," revealed himself to be none other than Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus. For those of you who don't follow politics (or at least political blogs), "poblano" has made quite a name for himself this primary season with extremely accurate election predictions based on a regression model that takes into account polling results, previous voting patterns, and other factors. He has recently drawn the attention of main-stream media outlets (and the ire of pollsters like ARG who he has shown to be increasingly inaccurate), and apparently has some sort of deal in the works that will give him more exposure.

This just goes to show that the same mathematical skills and analysis useful in predicting outcomes on the baseball diamond can be put to good use in other contexts as well. As a fan of Baseball Prospectus, and a political junkie, I found Nate's "unmasking" earlier today to be exciting news.

P.S. Al, I know you like to shy away from political content on BCB, but since this has a baseball perspective and isn't really advocating any particular viewpoint (other than that baseball number-crunchers can make a splash in other contexts using similar skill sets), I didn't think you would mind. If I'm wrong, please feel free to take this down.

Did anyone think this would be easy?

SuperContext — Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:49:23 -0000

Did anyone here think this season was going to be easy?

Did anyone here look at the Cubs record through 20 games, a healthy 14-6, and fool themselves into believing that the Chicago Cubs would tear through the rest of the season like that, a team possessed, win 110 games, and be lauded by the baseball-aware public as the greatest thing since sliced bread (or night baseball)?

I can tell you I sure as heck didn't.

I knew there would be some tough-luck losses, some times the ball didn't bounce the way the boys in cubbie blue would like, and some times where, yes, either the offense, or the pitching, or both, just plain stunk. I know there will likely be a few transcendent wins and a few gut-wrenching losses, and a lot of mundane stuff in-between.

I also know that, even in defeat, this club looks to be the best one I've seen on the north side in quite some time. Even in defeat they are getting on base, putting up offensive numbers we could have only dreamed of as recently as last year. The resurgence of Derek Lee, the arrival of Fukudome, the impressive play of Soto, and the surprise of Dempster have all contributed to making this club much more entertaining and exciting that I would have guessed.

So to reference Al's recap post, there will be ups, there will be downs, and there will almost certainly be those that wildly overreact to both. It won't always be as easy as it was for the first 20 -- it never is.

Mr. Cub to Speak Tomorrow

SuperContext — Wed, 11 Oct 2006 16:17:27 -0000

Just wanted to alert everyone to an event I became aware of today:

http://www.chicagohistory.org/planavisit/upcomingevents/special-events

Full info is in the link, but Ernie Banks will be appearing (along with Minnie Minoso, a legend associated with that OTHER Chicago baseball club) at the Chicago History Museum tomorrow night. Tickets are relatively inexpensive ($12 I think), especially considering the caliber of the speakers.

Journey to the Cell

SuperContext — Thu, 13 Oct 2005 13:57:00 -0000

Last night I attended Game 2 of the ALCS between the White Sox and Angels. We arrived at the park pretty early, about an hour before game-time, and there was already a pretty sizeable crowd. The atmosphere was one of excitement, with a hint of concern at the possibility the Sox might find themselves down 2-0.

As we made our way through the crowded concourse I remarked to Jennifer that I hadn't seen such an enthusiastic and sizeable baseball crowd since the last time I was at Wrigley Field, and received a playful punch on my arm for my trouble.

We settled into our seats (right-center bleachers, just past the visiting bullpen, though calling the outfield seats at the cell bleachers is kind of a stretch) after picking up some snacks. I then witnessed the first highlight of my night - Barack Obama throwing out the first pitch. I'm a big fan of Barack's, though I wish he could be persuaded to switch allegiances and cheer for the Cubs....

The fans nearby were nice, knowledgeable, and really excited about their team, for the most part. I did learn the following from one know-it-all nearby -

Barack Obama is a muslim, and muslim's shouldn't be allowed to throw out the first pitch.

World Series games are played only on weekends, that's why it takes so long.

The ABC show Commander-in-Chief (the one with the "chick president") is a conspiracy to get the public to accept Hillary Clinton as president.

Funny what you overhear at the park.

As the line-ups were announced, I predicted Aaron Rowand would have a home run. He didn't - but he almost touched them all without putting the ball over the fence. He hit a ball out to right (the play was charged as an error on Vlad Guerrero), and made it to third easily. The Angels threw to third and missed, Rowand was sent home, where he was thrown out at the plate. I'm really not sure what the Sox were thinking sending him - the ball didn't squirt nearly far enough away for Rowand to recover and make it home.

And for a while, that play looked like it would loom large in a game with very little offense from either team. The Sox jumped on the board in the first, scoring a run in small-ball style after reaching on a throwing error by Washburn.

They held a one-run lead until the fifth, where Mark Buehrle, who had great stuff, allowing only five hits, gave up the hit that counted - a home run to the Angel's Quinlan, tying the game at one.

And there it stayed, even after the Sox loaded the bases in the bottom of the sixth, only to have Donnely come in for the Angels and strike out Jermaine Dye to end the inning.

The last few innings were phenomenal, with Escobar having great stuff in relief for the Angels, and Mark Buehrle continuing his gem of a game. The crowd grew more and more tense, waiting for something to happen.

And then came the bottom of the ninth. Escobar struck out the first two Sox batters, making them look foolish in the process. He struck out the third batter, A.J. Pierzynski, too, and I turned to Jennifer and said, "Hey, free baseball!" But that was not to be.

We couldn't really see the play all that well from where we were, but after A.J. struck out, he stood there for a second then ran to first base, all while the Angels were coming off the field. Sciosca came out, the umpires conferenced, and apparently the ball hit the dirt before going in replacement catcher Josh Paul's glove, and he never tagged Pierzynski out. Looking at the replays later that night, I think it was a bad call, but you couldn't have convinced anyone at the Cell of that.

So after a delay of about five minutes while Sciosca voiced his displeasure and the umps met, the inning resumed, and the speedy Pablo Ozuna was called up to pinch run for Pierzynski. He promptly stole second, then Joe Crede hit a nice line drive to left that probably would have scored Ozuna even from first, and that was that - White Sox Win!

And let me tell you, at that moment the Cell erupted like I had never seen before. It truly was, as Al said yesterday, how it should be. The excitement was so palpable that I even ended up sheepishly high-fiving a few Sox fans. The game was what playoff baseball is supposed to be, and I'm thrilled I was able to be there. Here's hoping we get another taste of that at Friendly Confines sooner than later!

Cubs in Five

SuperContext — Tue, 30 Aug 2005 21:18:46 -0000

So there's this indie band I like called the Mountain Goats. I recently stumbled across an old song by theirs, from '95, I think, called Cubs in Five. Here are the lyrics:

they're gonna find intelligent life up there on the moon
and the canterbury tales will shoot up to the top of the best seller list
and stay there for 27 weeks

and the chicago cubs will beat every team in the league
and the tampa bay bucs will make it the way to january
and i will love you again
i will love you, like i used to
i will love you again
i will love you, like i used to

the stars are gonna spell out the words to tommorow's crosswords
and the phillips corporation will admit that they've made an awful mistake
and bill gates
will single handedly spearhead the heaven seventeen revival

and the chicago cubs will beat every team in the league
and the tampa bay bucs will take it all the way to the top
and i will love you again
i will love you, like i used to
and i will love you again
i will love you, like i used to

On the one hand, it makes everything seem pretty hopeless. On the other hand, Tampa Bay did go on to win the Super Bowl!

It Can Be Done

SuperContext — Mon, 11 Jul 2005 14:34:17 -0000

It seems to me that Cubs fan nation is, at the moment, divided into two camps. The first camp, to which I belong, is the optimists (or, to be less charitable, the Kool-Aid drinkers). The second camp is the pessimists, the sellers, the folks who are readying their forks and see the oven timer ticking down to zero, who believe the Cubs season is cooked, well-done, possibly even burnt to a crisp.

To the second camp I say, "You may be right." (If I was Billy Joel, I might say, "you may be right, I may be crazy....") The Cubs may fail spectacularly in the second half. But there is also a chance they may succeed. It can be done.

To know it can be done, we need look no further than last season. Not last season's collapsing Cubs, of course, but last season's Houston Astros. They were a team performing far under everyone's expectations at the break, and had been written off by sportswriters, fans, and serious gamblers alike. Really, don't you wish you could go back in time to the All-Star break last year and put some money on Houston to take the Cardinals to seven in the NLCS?

But that's what they did. At the All-Star break last year, the 'Stros were 44-44. This year, the Cubs are 43-44. Not a monumental difference. The 'Stros picked up a big bat in Carlos Beltran - the Cubs need to make a similar move to have a shot. Houston also had a big managerial shake-up, but I'm not going to get into that for the moment, except to say that I sincerely doubt we will be replicating that particular move.

So all you naysayers take heart. All is not yet lost. The Cubs may indeed crash and burn, but they might also do something magical and spectacular, but not entirely unprecedented.

Nomar joins Neifi All-Star campaign

SuperContext — Sun, 05 Jun 2005 15:20:48 -0000

Well, sort of, at least. This article about Nomar's rehab - http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050604&content_id=1075800&vkey news_chc&fext.jsp&c_id=chc - ends with him talking about Neifi's performance at short this year. He jokes that the reason he, Nomar, has so many votes for NL SS is that people see the performance of the Cubs SS in the box-score and assume it's him, when it's actually Neifi. And that a Cubs SS should make the team, the one starting everyday right now.

So Al, maybe your Neifi All-Star campaign is taking off... after all, Nomar also said he's been spending a good amount of time online lately.

Catching the Cards

SuperContext — Fri, 03 Jun 2005 16:21:08 -0000

Time to talk about something many of us thought was entirely impossible, or at the least ridiculously improbable - catching the Cardinals and winning the NL Central. Just a few days ago, many of us believed that it couldn't be done (despite the fact that it was only May). The Cubs season looked like a train wreck, the Cards looked invincible, and we seemed destined to fall out of contention. Even the optimists were only talking Wild Card run.

What a difference a winning streak can make. It's especially sweet when most of it is done on the road. The naysayers will point out that three of those games were against the Rockies, and that the Dodgers haven't exactly been playing their best baseball lately either. But the truth is that these are precisely the type of teams the Cubs couldn't beat consistently last year, so impressive performances against them now are welcome.

Further fueling hopes of a comeback in the division is the Cubs resurgent offense. Sure, there have been some solo homers, and some one-run squeakers. But generally, the team has been hitting well. We all know about the heroics of D.Lee and Neifi!, but Ramirez (barring further injury), Burnitz, and Walker seem to be rounding into form as well.

Our pitching still scares me, but hopefully the make-shift staff can tread water until Wood and Prior return. The pen seems to be performing much better, with Dempster stepping up to the closer's role and the cloud of foreboding that was LaTroy Hawkins gone.

As for the team we are chasing, they are good. But they aren't the same team as last year, and they are beatable. We shouldn't lend them any Yankee-like aura of invicibility or awe. We can take these guys - and the first step in doing so is believing it.

So, catch the Cardinals? I think the Cubbies can do it. If they are still around 5-6 back at the All-Star break, I'll still be optimistic. What made it so difficult to even consider catching them last year was the fact that we'd already exhausted all our games against them. This time, we will control our own destiny in the second half of the season if we can stay close throughout the first half.

So, what's your take? Take the poll.

Poll

Will the Cubs catch the Cardinals?

No, they won't even get close

4 votes

No, but they'll make the birds sweat

23 votes

Yes, they'll squeak by them in September

13 votes

Yes, they'll blow by them in the next couple of months

3 votes

Outlook is hazy, try again

14 votes

57 votes | Poll has closed