SB Nation User Blog: Sweep_the_Leg

Dutton Interviews Hillman About the 2010 Lineup

Sweep_the_Leg — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 03:13:09 -0000

Dutton Interviews Hillman About the 2010 Lineup

Nothing earth shattering, and in fact, 90% of it is exactly what you'd expect to hear from him. But there were a few things I noticed:
1. Trey seems to go out of his way to give Aviles a vote of confidence, both in coming back (early?) from the injury he concealed and in his ability to replicate his 2008 performance. He's still a dirty liar, but apparently some level of trust has been restored.
2. Butler will be the primary 1B next year, NOT the primary DH.
3. This is the first time I remember hearing about a DDJ shift...nah, not to center (stop being silly)...to RIGHT. Which then means either Fields or Callaspo in LF.

A Reason to Not Hit Mute When Watching the Series

Sweep_the_Leg — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:31:21 -0000

A Reason to Not Hit Mute When Watching the Series

Well, at least during the pre- and post-game shows. Guesstimate's on Ozzie's Bleeps-Per-Show Average (BPSA)?

I Wish I Was an Employment Lawyer Around Bristol, Conn.

Sweep_the_Leg — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:40:44 -0000

I Wish I Was an Employment Lawyer Around Bristol, Conn.

The Worldwide Leader could singlehandedly provide me with a thriving practice. Would Steve Phillips be better at offering advice on how to run a baseball team, or how to sexually harrass employees? Discuss.

Rany on the Royals: Worst. Five Game Stretch. Ever.

Sweep_the_Leg — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 14:53:34 -0000

Rany on the Royals: Worst. Five Game Stretch. Ever.

The standard nomenclature in baseball deems a "blowout" to be a game decided by five runs or more. By that standard, the Royals have been blown out in five consecutive games.

These being the Royals, of course, you’d expect that this has happened to them before in the recent past. You would be wrong. The Royals had never lost five consecutive games by five or more runs. Hell, the Kansas City Athletics never did so.

The Royals are just the ninth team in the Retrosheet era – since 1954 – to lose five consecutive blowouts.

Now is the time when we're supposed to remember that saying about the night being darkest before the dawn, or some such... Screw it. Let's all have a drink. I wish one of these damn vampire-creature things would come get me already.

OT: After May 26, We May Not Have Jose Canseco to Kick Around Anymore

Sweep_the_Leg — Fri, 22 May 2009 18:03:25 -0000

OT: After May 26, We May Not Have Jose Canseco to Kick Around Anymore

While most of you have probably been aware of Canseco's desperate attempts to gain attention and non-baseball-playing income after his retirement from the game, you may not be aware of his latest moneymaking idea. A Japan-based mixed martial arts promotion called DREAM (one of the top/better MMA promotions outside the UFC) has signed Jose to take on Korean mixed martial artist and kickboxer Hong Man Choi. Choi and Canseco are one of the opening matchups in DREAM's "Super Hulk" Tournament (Japan does not regulate MMA as much as the U.S. or U.K., and therefore allows rather ridiculous David-vs.-Goliath-type fights...oh, and they generally don't seem to care whether you shoot massive syringes of horse steroids directly into your arms right before your fight.). Choi is not a very good fighter, but he's got some good experience and is 7'2" and 400+ pounds. And, from the linked story, Jose does not seem to be taking this whole thing very seriously.

The DREAM event airs on HDNet here in the U.S., starting at 4AM CST on May 26. So, if you get HDNet, and you keep farmer's/drill sergeant's hours (or if you want to set your DVR), then you might be able to watch Jose's demise live on TV. And in HD, too!!

Sorry David, you may have increased payroll this year, but you still suck...Sincerely, SI.com

Sweep_the_Leg — Tue, 12 May 2009 20:48:41 -0000

Sorry David, you may have increased payroll this year, but you still suck...Sincerely, SI.com

Top 5 Best and Top 5 Worst Owners in MLB (and other sports). Aaaaaand...discuss.

Mike Aviles Will Be Fine

Sweep_the_Leg — Thu, 07 May 2009 17:28:50 -0000

"Aviles is so horribly bad..."

"Aviles has been trash."

"Aviles should never swing..."

"I’d say a demotion is in order."

"i hope aviles gets herpes in his dick hole..."

WOW. Take THAT, Mike. Thanks for the memories, you worthless piece of crap. Don't let the door hit you on the way back to Omaha. Hope you never make it back. I won't even mention the number and severity of STD's I hope you get because you have offended my baseball sensibilities, you lowdown, dirty, rotten scoundrel.

So, that's apparently how some Royals fans want to react to some expected sophomoric struggles from the man who could have been the MLB Rookie of the Year in 2008, and who was probably the team's MVP last year. Just throw him out like yesterday's trash, huh?? I beg to differ, my friends.

Mike Aviles will be fine. I repeat: Mike Aviles will be fine. Despite the ridiculous, unrealistic, and over-the-top vitriol that has been floating around RR, I think we can all agree on the reasonable conclusion that Aviles had not gotten off to the same incredible start that he did in 2008. But that's not surprising. What IS up for debate (perhaps) is how he will end up performing in 2009 when all is said and done.

So, what's happened with Mike this year? Well, his production is not the same as last year, that's very true. Rather than simply condemning him to a perpetual return to the life of a minor-leaguer, however, I would like to look a little deeper than overreactive, completely emotional responses to in-game results for each plate appearance.

Mike's current BA/OBP/SLG is not good, there can be no argument about that. He's hitting .206/.228/.289 right now (wOBA .231). Ouch. That definitely doesn't look good. But hey, how about this? Let's look beyond that and see what's going on behind those numbers.

First of all, he's been about as UNlucky this year as he was LUCKY last year. His LD% has increased to 21.8% from 20.2%, but his BABIP is .250 this year while it was .359 in 2008. League average is nearly identical at .303 in 2008 and .302 so far in 2009.

Beyond the fickleness of Lady Luck, what else might be happening? Well, as we might expect with a second-year player, the pitchers have learned how to adjust in pitching to him. While 62.4% of the pitches he saw in 2008 were fastballs, this year pitchers are throwing only 58.5% fastballs. Instead, they are trying to mess with Mike on the speed of the pitches he sees, as the percentage of changeups he sees has gone from 8.7% to 13.4%. Nevertheless, Aviles' plate discipline has only gotten better (Seitzer Effect, baby), since he's swinging at 27.3% of the pitches outside the strike zone vs. 35.5% in 2008.

Look, Aviles is obviously aware of the issues that come with his second year in the majors. He desperately wants to avoid experiencing the "sophomore jinx." In fact, I think Mike's only problem may be, in my armchair sports psychologist opinion, that he's pressing so hard to prevent it that the pressure he puts on himself is actually making it happen. He knows that pitchers are adjusting to him and that he needs to adjust to their adjustments. I think he's a smart enough and good enough professional baseball player that he's going to do so. Many of you apparently don't think he's capable of it.

The five projection systems have Aviles wOBA'ing between .328 and .350, all while providing adequate-to-good-SS-defense. I think they'll end up being right. And I think that Mike has earned a little faith from Royals fans. Let's give him at least a little more rope before we hang him in effigy, huh guys?

Joel Goldberg's Celebrity Recognition Abilities Forever Tarnished, Massive Manhunt for Fake Fieri Underway

Sweep_the_Leg — Tue, 05 May 2009 22:28:24 -0000

Joel Goldberg's Celebrity Recognition Abilities Forever Tarnished, Massive Manhunt for Fake Fieri Underway

I saw this live, and thought it was at the very least a little train-wreckish. I don't know anything about this guy other than his AppleChiliFriday's commercials (whichever one of those restaurants he shills for). Turns out it was a complete sham, but I don't know why the imposter/impostor (depending on your spelling preference) didn't have a little more fun with it. In Goldberg's defense, I suppose it's a little awkward and unprofessional to ask for a suspected celebrity's driver's license or other photo ID.

Measuring the Seitzer Effect

Sweep_the_Leg — Mon, 04 May 2009 15:16:09 -0000

via s1.faceinhole.com

OBA-Wan Kenobi: "Those aren't the pitches you're looking for."

Much has been made, both in the media, and on Royals Review, about the effect of new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer on the Royals' batters this year. The references to Seitzer's work are largely tongue-in-cheek, as it appears most people believe that a hitting coach has little tangible effect on a team's overall offensive performance.

While that is probably true, I thought it would be interesting to attempt to measure and follow any noticeable changes in hitting performance for which Seitzer might deserve some credit. Although I'm a complete newbie and hack when it comes to advanced statistics, I decided to chart certain stats for each Royals batter and compare those stats to each player's career numbers. (As always, many thanks to Fangraphs for providing this great info.) In an exhibition of poor judgment and a complete lack of shame, I've decided to make my amateur spreadsheet available for public ridicule and mockery here at RR. If you click on the following link, you should see a Google spreadsheet listing the Royals' hitters.

The Seitzer Effect (through 25 games) [Gordon, TPJ, and Brayan not included]

Players are listed by descending order based on wOBA. (I know it's very early, and it's highly unlikely to continue, but just seeing Wee Willie leading all Royals' batters with a crushing .441 still makes me do a double take.) Of course, there are a couple major caveats with the numbers here. First, as far as the 2009 numbers go, say it with me....small sample size. Second, many of the numbers, such as 2009 BB/K rates, can still fluctuate pretty wildly given the still relatively small number of PA's for everyone so far.

Despite these caveats, you can't help but notice some of these stats. Seven out of 12 regulars' wOBAs are up over their career numbers, and up significantly, too. Of course, there are some slumps in there, such as Aviles and, lately, Jacobs. Especially when it is early in the season, you will always have guys that get off to very hot starts (Callaspo, Bloomquist) and those that struggle out of the gate (Aviles, DeJesus). Those starts are easily and most effectively shown through a player's wOBA, which one could call a "production stat."

Seitzer's stated (and practiced) hitting philosophy is to have consistently good plate appearances, showing great plate discipline to increase walks and the number of quality pitches that a hitter sees. When a hitter does see a quality pitch, Seitzer seems to emphasize using the middle of the field and hitting line drives. With that stated philosophy, if Seitzer's influence and guidance can possibly be quantified or measured, it would have to be through what I would call "approach stats," such as O-Swing%, BB%, and BB/K.

Looking at these sorts of stats yields some very interesting early results for The Seitzer Effect. I first looked at O-Swing%, which is the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone at which the batter swings. Strangely, for a guy who preaches plate discipline, most of Seitzer's players' O-Swing percentages are higher than their career averages. (They're also higher than the MLB average over the last couple years, which Fangraphs pegs at 25.0% and 25.4%.) Looking at the next two categories is where things get interesting, though.

Both the BB% and BB/K ratio are up, and up significantly, for the overwhelming majority of batters. I and many others made fun of Dayton Moore calling Bloomquist an "on-base guy," based on his fairly long history of decidedly not being an on-base guy. But I guess Dayton, his scouts, and Seitzer are making us eat our words (for the time being at least), as The Spork is walking 7.8% more than he has throughout his career. That increased walk rate has obviously been a big part of his team-leading wOBA of .441. Crisp has also had a huge increase in his walk rate, getting a free pass 7.6% more than he ever did with Cleveland or Boston. While the rates for the others aren't quite as dramatic, they are still showing noted increases in plate discipline results...even though almost everyone is swinging at more pitches outside the zone than they should. Weird. Finally, in another oddity, most of the Royals have thus far seen a decrease from career rates in both overall contact rates and LD%.

So, what do these numbers tell us? Well, it seems to me that Seitzer has had a tangible, noticeable effect on the plate discipline of many, if not most, of the Royals' batters. It is still early, but so far it really does look like he's actually been able to positively alter their approach at the plate. If true, then this would certainly be a welcome change from years past. Whether he's using The Force or some other mind control technique, Seitzer may truly have become the OBA-Wan Kenobi of Royals' hitting coaches.

It is probably impossible to measure the true effect of a hitting coach's instruction, if there really is any. The increase in these numbers may just be natural fluctuations in the Royals' hitting that may come back to each player's career norms over the course of the season. Furthermore, we can't just apply "The Seitzer Effect" equally to each player. Despite what the numbers may tell us, we don't really know who is intently listening to every word that comes out of Seitzer's mouth, and who may be completely ignoring him. We can only rely on random quotes from certain individuals who may consistently praise the coach, such as Buck. His increased numbers seem to evidence his belief that Seitzer's teachings have been a tremendous help. On the other hand, Olivo still appears to be following the Pedro Cerrano School by giving regular offerings to Jobu in an attempt to wake up his bats. I think he's going to need some more rum.

via www.eteamz.com

I'll try to keep this chart updated at regular intervals over the course of the year, and may update with new posts accordingly. I think it will be interesting to follow, whatever value it may have. Let me know what other stats you think would be good potential measures for Seitzer's influence. And if you think this is pure idiocy, then please be gentle in the comments.

Another attempt at a Cleveland tourism video, with a major zing aimed at Detroit at the very end. ...

Sweep_the_Leg — Fri, 01 May 2009 16:26:28 -0000

Another attempt at a Cleveland tourism video, with a major zing aimed at Detroit at the very end. Could we have a little AL Central tourism rivalry brewing here? If so, then I can't wait for the Kansas City installment.