Over the last couple of weeks, the Blazers have been up and down. Some players have stellar games, other nights, the same players have terrible games. And I believe that I have noticed a pattern. Not in player performances but in fan reactions. And I think it makes a rather concerning study into how we root for our favorite teams and/or favorite players.

Nearly all of us like to think that we have opinions based on facts. That’s the standard by which opinions are judged in our general worldview. It’s a Western worldview, and perhaps a Modern world view. (I might go so far as to say that it is post modern as well, but not even post modernists can come to an agreement on what post modernism is, so I shall not try to attempt a guess.) Not every worldview accepts these conditions. But I dare say that enough of us here live by them well enough. 

So, does this bear out in reality? Are our opinions based on facts? Based on what I have observed, I would have to say no. It appears that nearly everyone forms an opinion first, and then finds the facts that support that opinion. This is the logical fallacy petitio principii (literally "assuming the initial point"). We assume our conclusion is true in trying to prove that it is true. And this bears out after each game. 

For example, let’s take the question "Should we trade Travis Outlaw?" It is my hypothesis that the opinion of nearly every poster has already been decided before assessing the evidence. When Travis has a good game, those who have decided to keep him are confirmed by finding the evidence that they were looking for, and use it to validate their predetermined opinion. They say, "See, I knew Travis was a keeper!" When Travis has a bad game, the evidence is dismissed as not pertaining to the equation, "after all, everyone has bad nights sometimes." And they are confirmed in their opinions because of this.

The same is true for the other side. If Travis has a good game, it is used to confirm the opinion, that is, used as a justification to trade: "Get rid of him now, while his trade value is high." If Travis has a bad game, it is an even greater confirmation: "how many nights are we going to let him lose the game for us?" 

It doesn’t seem to matter the issue, Outlaw, Miller, McMillan, Oden, Blake, Bayless, this principle is nearly constant. Sides are taken, then facts are marshaled with which to take the field. Rarely are any minds ever changed. Rarely is anyone persuaded. But this is exactly how our society operates these days. Whether Democrat or Republican. Whether pro-life or pro-abortion. Whether theist or atheist. Everything is decided subjectively in the public square. And that is a disaster of idiotic proportions just waiting to happen, or, more accurately, has already been happening for the last 20+ years.

We have completely fallen to the logical fallacy of petitio principii. In matters of sports, in matters of politics, in matters of religion, no matter the side, everyone in our culture is guilty of succumbing to this error. Idiocracy may have been prophetic.

Now, I don’t have an issue with taking a side. Taking a side is particularly what the facts are there for. If people didn’t take sides on whether or not to trade Outlaw then it would be pretty boring around here. If people didn’t take sides on what kind of coach McMillan is for our team, then why would anyone bother?

But without facts in charge of forming opinions, conversations become more shallow. When facts form opinions, they create nuances and ideas. When opinions assume facts, they create stale and repetitive bickering. Perhaps it is a difficult trap from which to escape. We have been well trained in it after all. It is never easy to adjust one’s worldview consciously. In fact, I am probably guilty of such a logical fallacy even from within this argument. It certainly wouldn’t surprise me. But perhaps in identifying the issue, we can at least begin to crawl out from under it. 

After having my harddrive die on me, I have spent little time in the land of the blogosphere lately. Though it is nice to be back. Fortunately, my computer still had two weeks of warranty left, and the techs fixed it for free. How often does that happen? Still, I have been spending my time trying to put files back, reorganize things and get everything back to the way it used to be, the way I was comfortable with it. 

One thing that was lost in this process was my site bookmarks. I have no idea what I used to read all the time. Since I had been using an RSS reader, I usually didn't go to a website directly that often. Of course, I didn't forget about here. Though it did take me a few tries to remember my password. And a few places I remember, but this is where I get to bring all of you guys in!

What are the places you like to visit to read Blazer News other than Blazers' Edge? Which places are reliable? Entertaining? Prompt? Was your store clean today? Did your cashier greet you? That kind of thing.

Of course there's room for all the other junk that goes in this drawer.

Have at it.

At least it's close enough to June 25th in my time zone. :p

Since signing Andre Miller, I'm sure many of you have come up with Portland's next move. Many of those moves will likely involve Steve Blake or Jerryd Bayless. Put me in the trade Bayless camp at the moment. Not that I think we should trade him just because. That would be mean, cruel, heartless and many other poignant adjectives. But if a trade needs to happen, then Bayless is the odd man out.

Of course, you'll probably also want to include Travis Outlaw. I don't think we need to do that myself. After Blake, Fernandez and Przybilla come off of the bench, Outlaw is not going to have the same role on this team. But I think it's a role he's better suited for. He doesn't have to be the third Option for this team anymore. He doesn't have to be the first option off of the bench. And if that reduced role is what Outlaw gets, I think he'll shine in that role. 

So tune your pages to the trade machine of your choice and get to work.

After seeing Blazers’ Edge implode after not picking a backup PF in the draft, I saw many people trying to reassure those people ready to jump out of buildings by saying, "Wait until July 8th!" But what if July 8th comes and goes and nothing happens? And July 9th, and 10th. I’m pretty sure things will be a disaster around here and people will call for Pritchard to be fired for not making a spectacular move. 

So if nothing happens this summer, is all hope lost? Will Pritchard have wasted the only opportunity he had to do something big? After all, Roy and Aldridge are due contract extensions this summer. Our cap space will be gone when that happens. However, those extensions don’t actually kick in until July 1st, 2010. 

But those second rounders we drafted will be signed and eat into our capspace. True. Assuming Portland does nothing this summer, except renounce Michael Ruffin, Shavlik Randolph, Raef LaFrentz and Channing Frye, they walk into the season with the following contracts (via Storyteller’s website):

Darius Miles’s Contract: $9,000,000

Joel Przybilla: $6,857,725

Greg Oden: $5,361,240

LaMarcus Aldridge: $5,844,827

Steve Blake: $4,000,000

Travis Outlaw: $3,600,000

Martell Webster: $4,319,654

Brandon Roy: $3,910,816

Jerryd Bayless: $2,143,080

Rudy Fernandez: $1,165,320

Nicolas Batum: $1,118,760

Victor Claver: $1,012,900 (Cap Hold)

Petteri Koponen: $824,200 (Cap Hold)

Joel Freeland: $824,200 (Cap Hold)

Also this is an assumption as far as personel, but it needs to be made going into the season without changes:

Jeff Pendergraph: $457,588 (Rookie Minimum)

Dante Cunningham: $457,588 (Rookie Minimum)

One minimum rookie contract to make the minimum 13 roster spots (hopefully 3rd string PG): $457,588

Total 2009-2010 Salary: $51,355,486

Total 2009-2010 Salary, not counting our 2nd rounders: $49,982,722

That’s a 1.5 million dollar loss just to get the team up and running for the season. Except the day the season starts, the cap holds on our overseas 1st rounders falls off until July 1st 2010. So in reality, if this scenario were to happen, our salary would be lower.

Total 2009-2010 salary, with cap holds removed and 2nd rounders signed: $48,694,206

Instead of a 1.5 million dollar loss, we’re looking at a 1.3 million dollar gain in cap space by waiting until the season starts.

Time.

Instead of being our enemy, it's possible that it could be our friend. How many other teams with cap space will blow it all on July 8th? How many teams will enter the season under the cap? A feasible $10 million under the cap (assuming there is no raising or lowering of the cap threshold this year)? 

If things get tighter this year instead of better, the pressure goes up even more. What if we go to the 2009-2010 NBA trade deadline with $10 million under the cap? I think it is entirely possible that we would be the only team with that kind of flexibility, while fielding a decent team. While the rest of the NBA gets even more desperate for cap relief, we have an overabundance. Time only makes our space more attractive. 

Of course, if this happens, and the trade deadline comes, Portland fans will get even more hyped about it. But what if nothing happens then either? Turns out, all is not lost. We would have that cap space until July 1st, 2010. That includes draft day 2010, when John Wall, is available, or the next superstar is available for cap space. (I hear a lot of teams want to dump salaries for the 2010 free agent bonanza.) And teams will know that our commodity is only available for a short time longer. Act now, or be stuck forever. 

I certainly don’t want to wait that long. Patience is not my strongest suit. I’ll be pulling my hair out on July 8th, 2009.  However, by looking at things this way, at least I wont be looking for the nearest window if for some reason nothing happens. 

...

One last thought. It's a long shot, and I don't believe it could happen. But what if. What if Portland wins a case for Daruis Miles' contract to be removed from our cap? It certainly couldn't happen before July 8th. But by the start of next season, or the trade deadline? There is a possibility. Of course, you cannot bank on that and use it as an excuse to not do anything this summer. But it's there. It is possible. Not likely, but possible. <shiver>

...

Of course, this thought can always use more input. Any salary guys out there might see errors in my though processes. Maybe I’m missing something vitally important. Maybe there’s some better ideas out there. Please chime in with any thoughts, corrections, constructive criticisms, et cetera.