SB Nation User Blog: T Kyle King

The Mark Richt Victory Watch

T Kyle King — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 02:47:40 -0000

The Mark Richt Victory Watch returns this evening following far too lengthy an absence, as we once again have the opportunity to tick off yet another Bulldog win en route to Coach Richt’s eventual overtaking of Vince Dooley atop the all-time Georgia victories list.

The Mark Richt Victory Watch now stands at 77. Coach Richt needs just 124 more wins to tie Coach Dooley for the school record.

With 97 games under his belt, Coach Richt now has a 77-20 won-lost record to his credit. No previous Bulldog head coach has possessed as impressive a ledger after as many outings, as Harry Mehre (58-34-5), Wally Butts (70-25-2), and Vince Dooley (65-28-4) all trailed Mark Richt at the same point.

It’s great to be a Georgia Bulldog.

Go ‘Dawgs!

Georgia Bulldogs v. Tennessee Volunteers Game Day Open Comment Thread

T Kyle King — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 15:10:50 -0000

You know the drill: game day is upon us, there is much to discuss, and the conversation takes place in the comments below. Have at it, ladies and gentlemen.

This is also the point at which this week’s Dawg Sports honorary game captain is announced. Naturally, the selection is specific to the opponent, as a Bulldog who has proven himself against that day’s foe invariably is chosen.

On a day on which a Mark Richt-coached team is looking to rebound from an early conference loss and make a statement about where this program now stands, the choice seemed obvious:

Go ‘Dawgs! G.A.T.A.

Too Much Information: Georgia Bulldogs v. Tennessee Volunteers

T Kyle King — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 03:06:42 -0000

With the Tennessee game fast approaching, it is time for my weekly rundown of statistics, minutiae, and assorted odds and ends. Because you’re already being provided with actual (and excellent) analysis by the likes of, say, Doug Gillett, I’m not going to waste your time by duplicating what you’re already getting elsewhere; instead, I’m going to run through a few of the fine points in the course of giving you not a dash of detail or a dollop of data, but instead . . . Too Much Information.

Defensively, the ‘Dawgs play equally well before and after intermission. Over the course of the season so far, the Red and Black have surrendered 48 points in the first half and 48 points in the second half. The Volunteer offense has scored more points in each quarter than in the quarter before, but the Big Orange still rank tenth in the league in scoring offense. The team ranked ninth just fired its offensive coordinator.

Georgia has lost back-to-back home games only once in the Mark Richt era.

The Bulldog offense averages an S.E.C.-best 6.8 yards per snap. The Volunteer defense allows a league-low 3.9 yards per play.

How well is Tennessee’s defense playing? Gains by the opposing team are measured using one of these.

2008 is the fourth season in Bulldog football history in which the Red and Black have played both Georgia Southern and Tennessee. In the three previous campaigns in which the Classic City Canines crossed paths with both the Eagles and the Vols, the ‘Dawgs were 0-2 against the Big Orange in those seasons in which Georgia came into the Tennessee game undefeated but the Bulldogs were 1-0 against the Volunteers in the lone autumn in which Georgia came into the Tennessee game with one loss.

The Vols have yet to allow an opponent to convert a fourth-down attempt against them, but they allow the other team to pick up the requisite yardage on third down 39.7 per cent of the time, marking the worst conversion percentage permitted by any S.E.C. defense outside of Fayetteville, Ark.

This will be the seventh season in which Georgia plays a Tennessee team that had a losing record five games into the fall. On the previous six such occasions (1906, 1909, 1910, 1988, 1994, and 2000), the Bulldogs were 4-1-1 against the Volunteers.

The foregoing bullet points mark the only times I have ever made favorable references to the 2000 season. No, seriously. I’m not kidding.

The Feel Good Stat of the Week: Last year, Hamp Tanner asked me to investigate Phil Fulmer’s won-lost record following a U.T. open date and the results were as ugly as the game. Now, the shoe is on the other foot. Following a regular season bye week, the Bulldogs are 10-2 under Mark Richt, and, in those dozen contests, Georgia scored 30 or more points six times.

The Bottom Line: This year’s game represents a complete role reversal from last year’s game. In 2007, the Vols were playing at home after an idle Saturday and needed the win to put themselves back on track to finish first in the Eastern Division. Now, all of those cards (home field advantage, open date, sense of urgency) are in the Bulldogs’ hands.

This is not to say that there are not concerns. There is no underestimating the importance of the injuries to the Red and Black’s season so far or the impact of personnel issues upon our pass rush. There appear to be issues concerning leadership, as well.

However, the other side has problems, too. The Volunteers will be playing without a pair of suspended linemen. Tennessee’s season is teetering on the brink. The Big Orange’s star tailback insists upon speaking in pterodactyl.

A pterodactyl? That makes no sense. Everyone knows a triceratops would make a much better running back!

You want the bottom line on the bottom line? Tennessee’s biggest returnee is the latest in the long line of Fabulous Punting Colquitts. Georgia’s biggest returnee is fullback Brannan Southerland. It wouldn’t surprise me to see both of those players named the M.V.P. for their respective teams on Saturday.

By the way . . . I’ve been exchanging frantic e-mails all week with DAve Akins---yes, that DAve Akins---and I have good news: DAve finagled a ticket to tomorrow’s game. The Bulldogs are between the hedges and all’s right with the world.

My Prediction: Georgia 26, Tennessee 17.

Go ’Dawgs!

Dawg Sports Interviewed by Rocky Top Talk Before Georgia-Tennessee Game

T Kyle King — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 02:15:29 -0000

You may be spending your Thursday night watching the national game of disinterest, but I have spent my evening preparing tomorrow’s edition of Too Much Information, watching the game with the sound muted, and being interviewed by Rocky Top Talk’s Joel regarding Saturday’s game between the hedges and whatever else happened to pop into our heads.

We experienced some technical difficulties, but Joel honored my request to be interviewed in pterodactyl and here is how our conversation went:

Go ‘Dawgs!

Georgia Bulldogs Ranked 10th in Country, Third in S.E.C.

T Kyle King — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 18:06:23 -0000

I apologize for the fact that I am a little bit behind in bringing this to you, but the times, they are a-changing, so it took a little longer than usual to point and click my way to the relevant data, for reasons which will become apparent forthwith.

This week’s S.E.C. Power Poll and BlogPoll are available for your perusal, with the latter now appearing at CBS Sports, right alongside the sportswriters’ poll. (Insert your cheap shot at Buzz Bissinger here.)

Oklahoma occupies the top spot in the BlogPoll, with Alabama ranked second. Georgia is ranked tenth, behind No. 5 Louisiana State but ahead of No. 11 Vanderbilt and No. 12 Florida. The S.E.C. Power Poll has the top five teams in the conference arranged in the same sequence: Tide, Tigers, Bulldogs, Commodores, Gators.

With respect to the BlogPoll extracurriculars, my ballot was a non-factor in the running for Mr. Bold, although I placed second in the standings for the Straight Bangin’ Award and Mr. Manic-Depressive. Yes! I managed to avoid drawing the sort of attention to myself that would have guaranteed increased site traffic here at Dawg Sports. Wait . . . hold on . . . dang, I should have left B.Y.U. languishing at No. 22, then I could have been right up there with Dr. Saturday. . . .

As an aside, I should add a brief note regarding the BlogPoll’s founder and administrator, MGoBlog’s Brian Cook, who may or may not be rolling in cash today. I defended Brian (partially) against a commenter’s criticism, and I am glad to know that my faith was (again, at least partially) confirmed, as his announcement of the BlogPoll’s move to CBS Sports closed with these words:

This would not have been possible without the enthusiastic support of voters new and old, even the ones I regularly battle over their voting philosophies, and I’d like to thank everyone for their participation.

O.K., so the praise there is not exactly effusive, but it’s something, so credit deserved to be given where credit was due.

Go ‘Dawgs!

Q&A: S.E.C. Power Poll/BlogPoll Roundtable Responses

T Kyle King — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 02:17:04 -0000

I’m sure that, from the outside, being a BlogPoll voter and an S.E.C. Power Poll voter looks like it’s all glamour. The hefty salary . . . the country club membership . . . the throngs of adoring fans and paparazzi who follow us everywhere we go . . . but don’t be fooled by the luxurious lifestyle and the groupies; the burdens of exercising the college football franchise are real and they are daunting.

For instance, there are all these questions in need of answers, and who, dear reader, is going to answer them? Analysts? Athletes? Common ordinary citizens who spend their free time interacting face-to-face with fellow human beings? I think not; if you want a question answered expertly and insightfully, you need a blogger.

Below are my answers to the most recent roundtables hosted by Doug Gillett for the S.E.C. Power Poll and by ~~Snarky~~ Barking Carnival for the BlogPoll. My advice to you is to put on your sunglasses before reading these answers, lest the unfiltered glare of my illuminating brilliance blind you:

Yes, I’m kidding. Doug gets all the blog groupies.

What's your prediction for the matchup in the SEC championship game, and has that changed at all from what you were predicting in the preseason?

I’m picking half with my head and half with my heart when I say Alabama and Georgia will meet in the Dome in a rematch of the so-called "funeral" to determine whether there is life after death. Obviously, I’m sticking with my preseason pick in selecting the ‘Dawgs, but, in August, I thought Auburn and Louisiana State would finish in front of the Tide. Of course, I didn’t foresee Tommy Tuberville firing Tony Franklin halfway through the season.

Knowing what you now know about your team, how have your expectations for this season changed? What would constitute a successful season in your eyes, and what would be a disappointment?

My expectations haven’t changed in the sense that all of the Bulldogs’ goals (except for an undefeated season, of course) remain intact, but the reality is that Georgia has suffered too many injuries truly to be the team we all anticipated. As much as I wanted (and still do not rule out) a national championship this year, success and disappointment are defined as they always are: an S.E.C. championship would make the season successful; not appearing in Atlanta on the first Saturday in December would make the season a disappointment.

If your team has Vanderbilt coming up at some point on its schedule, are you worried? If not, which team should be the most worried?

I’m actually less worried about the Commodores than usual, and here’s why: Vanderbilt has played several upper echelon S.E.C. squads tough in recent years, most definitely including Georgia. Vandy’s stellar record this autumn ensures that the ‘Dawgs will not overlook the ‘Dores, so I expect a more focused Red and Black effort at homecoming than we ordinarily see.

Other than perhaps Alabama's season-opening win over Clemson, the SEC doesn't really have any marquee non-conference wins thus far, and a couple of traditional powers (Auburn and Tennessee) are struggling in high-profile fashion. Is it too early to call this a "down year" for the conference?

Yes, it is, for three reasons. First of all, many of the league’s best out-of-conference matchups occur late in the season, when Georgia takes on Georgia Tech, Florida faces Florida State, and South Carolina tangles with Clemson. Secondly, the S.E.C. scheduled some marquee non-conference matchups; it’s not our fault that Alabama’s win over Clemson, Georgia’s win over Arizona State, Kentucky’s win over Louisville, and Florida’s win over Miami (Florida) were devalued by the fact that those teams stink. Finally, while it’s fair to say that the conference is having a down year offensively, the league’s defenses generally are acquitting themselves well. What’s wrong with being good at the phase of the game that wins championships rather than at the phase of the game that sells tickets?

Unless, of course, we’re talking about the kind of offense that can win a game with one arm tied behind its back. . . .

Please observe the latest ESPN Heisman Watch. What gridiron presence draws your suspicion and ire?

Graham Harrell. Yeah, he threw six touchdown passes last week; the Red Raiders also threw the ball twice as many times (60) as they ran it (30). The guy’s a system quarterback. How can he be the country’s most outstanding player if he’s doing what literally every one of Mike Leach’s quarterbacks has done?

In World War I, British troops were famously characterized as "Lions Led By Donkeys." What Donkey leading a college football team of Lions is leading his troops into the Somme again this Saturday? Who should replace him after the court martial?

Unquestionably, the answer is Clemson’s Tommy Bowden. Need proof? In the Tigers’ season opener against ‘Bama, James Davis got six carries and C.J. Spiller got two. Yes, I know the Crimson Tide shut down the run, but, when you have that kind of talent in the backfield (recall that Spiller returned the second half kickoff 96 yards for Clemson’s only touchdown), you don’t take the ball completely out of your best playmakers’ hands. Who should replace Tommy when ESPN unveils its three-man "all-Bowden" game crew? I believe the answer to that question . . .

. . . is abundantly clear.

It’s conventional wisdom that it is "good for the game" when certain NFL teams - Dallas, Pittsburgh, Green Bay - or certain NBA teams - LA, Boston, New York - are strong. Others would contend that this is the arrogant self-importance of the traditional elite. With the resurgence of historic programs like Alabama and possibly Notre Dame (now believed to be turning-the-corner in 12 of its last 15 seasons) is it good for college football when certain name programs are strong? If not, why not?

While you wouldn’t want all of the sport’s traditional powers to be downtrodden all at once, I don’t know that there’s anything particularly mission critical about having certain storied programs at the top of the polls. I’m just as content to see Oregon and Missouri making noise in their respective conferences as I am to see Southern California and Nebraska being the dominant league powers, and I certainly was happy to see Boise State beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl and Vanderbilt beat Auburn last weekend. The rise of nouveau riche programs like the Sunshine State schools (none of whom had any meaningful national tradition prior to the early 1980s) and the waning of former national powers like the Ivy League teams and the East Coast service academies don’t seem to have done the sport any harm.

A related question: what team with some record of success could fall off of the face of the earth and CFB wouldn’t miss a beat? Who fancies themselves a name brand, but aren’t?

You really could pick any B.C.S. conference team from the state to the south of the one in which I live, but at the top of the list stands Florida. Although many younger fans mistakenly consider the Gators a longstanding power, the fact is that they did not win a conference championship they were permitted to keep until 1991 (50 years after Mississippi State captured its only S.E.C. crown) and they did not win a national title until 1996. The Saurians’ success has been compressed into a remarkably short span of time, which causes many fans to forget that, prior to Steve Spurrier’s return to Gainesville, Florida’s football heritage was one great big Ron Zook era (minus the .667 winning percentage over Georgia, of course). Speaking as someone whose alma mater has had a winning tradition since the early 1890s, I’m pretty sure we could afford to lose a program with a winning tradition since the early 1990s.

Saying Florida was expendable? That wasn’t right. It was a bad deal. And it will forever be in the mind of Urban Meyer and in the mind of his football team. So they’ll handle it. And it’s going to be a big deal.

Texas/OU in Big D. Okie State @ Mizzou. Penn State @ Wiscy. LSU @ Florida. We have Longhorn, Cowboy, Badger, Tiger - which dog is most likely to get it done?

See, this is exactly what I mean. The Bayou Bengals are underdogs? On what planet? As a coach, Les Miles is at least the equal of Urban Meyer, and, since a defensively-driven championship campaign in 2006, the Gators have been much more mediocre than L.S.U. I think Florida goes down and goes down hard this weekend.

What currently unranked team will we be hearing about soon?

Going by the BlogPoll top 25, I’d have to say Cincinnati. Deep, deep down, we’re all still convinced that the Bearcats are a M.A.C. team and that the Big East is dominated by Louisville, Rutgers, South Florida, and West Virginia, but it just ain’t so. Brian Kelly is building a real program and that fact will be given its due recognition eventually.

I am contractually obligated to follow up on all references to Cincinnati with an amazingly dated reference to a ‘70s sitcom about a radio station coincidentally set in that selfsame city.

What ranked team will finish outside of the Top 25?

Again using the BlogPoll, I’m going with current No. 20 Michigan State. The Spartans’ pattern is simply too well established either to ignore or to deny.

That is how it looks to me, but, by all means, please feel free to offer your own responses in the comments below.

Go ‘Dawgs!

Completely Unrelated: The Problem with Country Music

T Kyle King — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 13:52:49 -0000

What follows has absolutely nothing to do with college football, unless you suppose that Georgia’s upcoming game against Tennessee has me thinking about country music, but this thought occurred to me and simply had to find expression somewhere, so you’re the unlucky ones who get to hear me out on this one.

The problem with country music is that it’s getting too complicated. As what used to be a distinct musical genre in its own right increasingly becomes nothing more than pop music with a twang, country musicians are trying to sound clever and coming across as merely contrived.

I don’t need a country song with a chorus that tells me, "I ain’t as good as I once was, but I’m as good once as I ever was." It’s a country song, not a logic problem; I have neither the time nor the inclination to think through a 17-word sentence in the middle of a song that is supposed to serve as an amusing distraction. I don’t need you to dumb it down, but I do need bullet points.

Even worse than that, though, is the false dichotomy regarding the usage of the word "gone." Although the song has a neat premise and a good line about it being a whiskey night or just a couple of beers, the chorus goes off the tracks when it starts to get down to cases. What, precisely, is supposed to be the difference between "gone for good" and "good and gone," and what differentiates either from "long gone"? For all the song’s effort to make those phrases sound distinguishable, I’m pretty sure that, if your woman says any of them to you in the driveway before getting in her car and leaving, it’s a whiskey night. The song is simply trying too hard.

I understand the irony of this statement coming from me, but brevity is the soul of wit. A good country song gives it to you straight . . . possibly even George Strait. All your rowdy friends are coming over tonight? O.K., I’m with you, Hank; I don’t even need you to explain to me why you drink. I’m pretty sure you’re just carrying on a family tradition. Earl had to die? The Dixie Chicks make out a plausible case for that premise. A left will take her to the interstate but a right will bring her right back here to you? It’s an evocative image, and I have no trouble visualizing the little country store with the old Coke sign way up yonder past the caution light, but the song delivers what it promises: good directions. You’re going to put that boot where? All right, no further details needed, thank you.

Why is Brad Paisley among the most consistent hit-makers in country music? Because he doesn’t get bogged down in complexity. The crux of every Brad Paisley song is a simple declarative statement. "I don’t mind waiting on a woman." "I’m so much cooler online." "I’m still a guy." "I’d like to check you for ticks."

Brad Paisley’s songs work for the same reason such Neil Diamond songs as "Solitary Man" and "Brother Love’s Travelling Salvation Show" work. They’re unvarnished. They’re forthright. Heck, you wouldn’t have any trouble diagramming the chorus of any of them and your middle school English teacher wouldn’t have quibbled too much with the grammar.

It’s a country song. There’s only so hard I’m willing to work while I’m listening to it. Establish the premise, cut to the chase, and don’t try to be deep or (worse) cute. Just tell me you were drunk the day your mama got out of prison and you went to go pick her up in the rain, and we’re good to go.

I now return you to your regularly scheduled sports weblog, which is already in progress.

Go ‘Dawgs!

Don't Bet On It!: National Game of Disinterest

T Kyle King — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 11:38:35 -0000

I hate to interrupt the intelligent discussion going on here at Dawg Sports to bring you something so utterly inconsequential, but, since I’ve taken you around the S.E.C. and picked the national games of interest, I find myself obligated now to identify the national game of disinterest.

That’s right . . . disinterest. Virtually every college football game has heft to it, some distinguishing feature, however small, that makes it worth watching and claiming a rooting interest. Each week, however, there is one game that lacks this crucial element, inspires only indifference, and does not deserve to be picked because it is unworthy even of a glance at the ESPN scroll to find out which team won.

This week’s national game of disinterest is . . .

Clemson at Wake Forest

Yes, I know; it’s a crucial showdown in the Atlantic Division . . . or the Coastal Division . . . or an interdivisional contest that could be a preview of the A.C.C. championship game . . . or not.

Honestly, it could be the biggest game in the post-expansion history of the Atlantic Coast Conference, and do you know how big that would be?

Exactly.

This game doesn’t represent a critical matchup on the path to Jacksonville; it’s a soporific snoozefest on the road to Dullsville. That would be bad enough . . . but can’t they schedule garbage like this on Saturday, when I can ignore it?

That’s right, boys and girls . . . this is your ESPN Thursday night game. There is no justice in the world if Erin Andrews is forced to be on the sidelines tomorrow night so she can ask Jim Grobe when he’s going to get a real job and/or ask Tommy Bowden whether he has everything in his office boxed up and set off to the side so it won’t be in Bobby Johnson’s way.

Supposedly, poaching three teams from the Big East was going to transform the A.C.C. into the country’s next "superconference," but the league has aged about as well as Bobby Bowden. How far has the A.C.C. fallen? On Thursday night, I will find myself wishing that I was watching a W.A.C. game instead. That, by definition, makes this the national game of disinterest.

Go ‘Dawgs!

Don't Bet On It!: National Games of Interest

T Kyle King — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 03:15:18 -0000

Yes, Virginia, there are national games of interest this week, although you may rest assured that Virginia will not be taking part in any of them. After taking last week off, I return, bloodied but unbowed, to try my hand once again at predicting the outcomes of college football games not involving Southeastern Conference teams.

As you might imagine, I am even worse at this enterprise than I am at picking S.E.C. games, which is why, in my last stab at this, I once again went 2-4, causing my non-league ledger to plummet to 18-14 and necessitating that we take a little trip through the rules, of which there is only one: Don’t Bet On It!

In a shrewd move designed to ensure that I won’t go 2-4 yet again this week, I elected to pick only five games this week. Ha! That’ll show you! Here are this week’s national games of interest:

Penn State at Wisconsin: I don’t know what to make of the Badgers. They routinely wind up as the most enigmatic 9-3 team in the country and inevitably baffle me as I endeavor to discern whether Wiscy will lose a New Year’s Day bowl game by three points or win a New Year’s Day bowl game by three points. Heck, Wisconsin is such a mystery to me that Bret Bielema was the head coach of the Badgers for more than a year before I realized his last name wasn’t pronounced Buy Lima. The Nittany Lions, though, are more of a known quantity, inasmuch as they score in bunches and they’re good. This is the biggest test yet for P.S.U., but, after back-to-back disheartening losses, the Badgers may not have it in them to close the deal against what looks to be the best team in the Big Ten. Fortunately for Wiscy, they won’t have to deal with the sting of a late collapse this week, as Saturday’s opponent is Lion in wait in Madison to take the lead early and never relinquish it.

This could be the week that Penn State forcefully places itself in national championship contention. If only Joe Paterno had lived to see it. . . .

Oklahoma State at Missouri: Remember back when the Tigers were an underperforming also-ran toiling in inexplicable mediocrity in the decrepit Big 12 North while the Cowboys were on the verge of breaking through to serious conference contention? You know . . . 14 months ago? Say, whatever happened to the Pokes’ higher aspirations? Oh, yeah . . . right. Anyway, I’ve always been a believer in Mizzou and I’m starting to buy into O.S.U., but this is not the weekend to place your faith in Mike Gundy’s club. Heading into their date in Columbia, the Cowpoke faithful need to ask themselves a question. (No, not, "Do you feel lucky, punk?" Amazingly enough, Dirty Harry lacked an adequate vigilante mentality to qualify as an Oklahoma State mascot.) The question is: "Do you know the name of the Tigers’ punter?" Neither do they. It will be a moral victory for the Cowboys if Coach Gundy is able to brag at his postgame press conference, "Our defense is a bunch of men! They only gave up 40!" Missouri loves company and they will have a fine old time hosting the Pokes.

Notre Dame at North Carolina: Whichever fellow it was in Chapel Hill or South Bend who arranged this game for this fall deserves to be made his athletic association’s employee of the year. Seriously, name any other season in the last, oh, say, third of a century in which a game between the Fighting Irish and the Tar Heels would be both competitive and good. As a native Georgian whose loyalties do not lie with the Crimson Tide but who remains rankled by the fact that Bear Bryant’s Alabama squads never once beat Notre Dame, I invariably engage in the region-wide exercise of rooting for any Southern team---yes, even Georgia Tech---against the Golden Domers. (I hate to break it to the U.N.C. faithful, but, yes, your team represents a Southern state school. I know Lewis Black and Thomas Wolfe left Chapel Hill and headed to the Big Apple; you’re still here. Deal with it.) On Saturday, my local loyalties will be rewarded as the Pugilistic Leprechauns are ground under the Heels.

Bear Bryant may never have beaten Notre Dame, but at least the man showed up for work looking like a professional rather than looking like he just rolled out of bed.

Michigan State at Northwestern: As evidenced by the schedules Bill Snyder compiled for Kansas State throughout his tenure and the path Kentucky trod to get to 4-0 this year, teams nicknamed "Wildcats" know that the key to a successful season is to spend September playing squads composed of nine-year-old girls who are small for their age. The band from Evanston is no exception, although Pat Fitzgerald’s crew is about to take a step up in weight class. Fortunately for Northwestern, their big-time debut (such as it is) will come against the most accommodating of opponents in the form of the Spartans. For M.S.U., the trend has been unrelenting tragedy (such as it is) of such unremitting consistency as to become comedy; Sparty almost always starts relatively strong and finishes objectively weak, and has done so perennially since Nick Saban (who had his own 5-0 start followed by a 2-5 finish in 1997) departed. So it was in 2000 (3-0 start, 2-6 finish), 2001 (5-2 start, 2-3 finish), 2002 (3-2 start, 1-6 finish), 2003 (7-1 start, 1-4 finish), 2004 (4-3 start, 1-4 finish), 2005 (4-0 start, 1-6 finish), 2006 (3-0 start, 1-8 finish), and 2007 (4-0 start, 3-6 finish). Eight straight seasons is a trend, my friend, and, until the Spartans wise up and adopt Oregon State’s stumble-out-of-the-gate-and-end-by-playing-well approach (or at least mix it up between the two, like Clemson), I’m picking this as the week Michigan State’s luck runs out on them. In an overtime game in which the final score is forty-lot to forty-less, the Wildcats will win.

Oklahoma v. Texas: I’m sorry, but I simply cannot write about this game without unleashing my inner Keith Jackson. Whoa, Nellie! We have ourselves a barn-burner here in Dallas, Texas, between a pair of top five teams in a showdown with division, conference, and national implications, but neither of these two teams much cares about that right now, because all that matters is that they’re getting ready to tee it up for another edition of the Red River Shootout, and they’d both better bring their best effort, because, in a rivalry like this one, you can’t tap-dance around or they’ll put a tutu on you. The teams featuring the top two scoring defenses in the Big 12 will square off on Saturday, and, while the Sooners lead the league in total defense (256.2 yards per game allowed), no other team in the conference has surrendered as few touchdowns (5) as Will Muschamp’s Longhorns. Consider this statistic: Texas has not surrendered a rushing touchdown this season. That’s your ballgame, right there. The ’Horns hook ‘em.

I didn’t mean to hurt your feelings, kid, but that’s just the way I see it. It’s nothing personal, I promise. Here, have a lollipop.

Those are this week’s national picks, which you may do with what you will, provided you heed my usual caveat. I am an untrained amateur and I routinely am wrong about such things, so wagering your hard-earned money based upon my forecasts would not only be morally and legally dubious, it also would be ~~as foolish as investing your money on Wall Street~~ unwise. You heard it here first, but it bears repeating: Don’t Bet On It!

Coming Soon: National Game of Disinterest.

Go ‘Dawgs!

Don't Bet On It!: Around the S.E.C.

T Kyle King — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 11:27:41 -0000

I am ~~tanned~~ pale, ~~rested~~ slightly less sleep-deprived than normal, and ~~ready~~ contractually obligated to provide this week’s Southeastern Conference prognostications. Following a Saturday on which my bold prediction of a Vanderbilt victory over Auburn vaulted me to a 4-1 record in last week’s S.E.C. picks, I now stand at 37-7 in league-wide forecasts overall, but don’t let my recent run of success fool you: I stink at this, and there’s only so long my luck can hold out, so, whatever you do . . . Don’t Bet On It!

All of this week’s conference contests will be played on Saturday, October 11, because, hey, what do we look like, the Big East? Here are the outings that could use a good picking:

Arkansas at Auburn: Shortly before bolting Oxford for the so-called Loveliest Village, Tommy Tuberville famously said that he would only leave Ole Miss in a pine box. Tubs subsequently went hunting in the Natural State and, evidently, bagged a job offer to coach the Razorbacks while sitting in a duck blind. How is it that he will be the second-smarmiest disloyal careerist in Jordan-Hare Stadium this weekend? I’m guessing that Coach Tuberville hasn’t yet forgotten a certain clandestine meeting in the Bluegrass State that cost the president and athletic director of the Alabama Polytechnic Institute their jobs, which ought to give the Plainsmen a little extra motivation to rout the Hogs. Smarter people than me don’t know what Auburn’s offense is, but I’m pretty sure the worst team in the S.E.C. is due for another drubbing.

An inbred toothless hillbilly exhorting his helpless captive to "squeal like a pig"? Nope, no analogy to the Auburn-Arkansas game there!

Vanderbilt at Mississippi State: In order to save time, could Sylvester Croom go ahead and pass the S.E.C. coach of the year trophy off to Bobby Johnson during the postgame handshake? No fan base outside of Nashville will be rooting for the Commodores harder than the denizens of Bulldog Nation, as we want an undefeated and highly ranked Vandy squad rolling into Athens one week hence. I’m nervous, though. It’s not because Coach Johnson’s club ranks behind Coach Croom’s squad in passing offense, pass defense, total offense, total defense, first downs gained, and first downs allowed, although all of those things are true. It’s not even because the 2008 edition of Vanderbilt appears eerily similar to the 2007 edition of Mississippi State, although it does. It’s because I remember the 2005 season, in which Coach Johnson’s Commies leapt out to a 4-0 start, had bowl eligibility squarely in their sights, and lost to Middle Tennessee at home as a two-touchdown favorite. I think the ‘Dores are going to get caught looking ahead to a road game against one set of Bulldogs and are going to forget about taking care of business against the set of Bulldogs they happen to be playing this weekend. I like Vanderbilt, but I’m going with Mississippi State.

South Carolina at Kentucky: This is an intriguing matchup, and not just for the guys standing on the sidelines in polyester blazers scouting the game for the Music City Bowl selection committee. The Gamecocks have gotten their passing attack going---the Palmetto State Poultry lead the S.E.C. with ten touchdowns through the air---while the Bluegrass State Felines certainly have confirmed (for the first time in living memory) that, yes, there is a "D" in "Wildcat": U.K. stands atop the conference in scoring defense (7.8 points per game allowed) and the ‘Cats have surrendered a league-low two touchdown passes this season. We’ll see how much Kentucky’s defensive numbers have been inflated---or, I guess, deflated---by suspect competition when the Wildcats host the team that boasts the S.E.C.’s best third-down conversion percentage. My guess is that the ’Cocks will emerge victorious from the Commonwealth following a close contest.

If the Wildcats lose, Rich Brooks plans to give his team’s spirits a much-needed boost by taking his players out for Kentucky Fried Chicken to take their mind off of the game. This tactic will be of limited effectiveness.

Louisiana State at Florida: Rumor has it that Les Miles will be leaving his punter in Baton Rouge and going for it on every dadgum fourth down, baby! On paper, this looks like a clash of elite teams who routinely square off for harrowing showdowns, but looks sometimes are deceiving. Since falling to the Gators in 2006, the Fighting Tigers have put together a 23-2 ledger, whereas Florida has dropped five of its last 14 decisions, including---you can look it up---four of the last nine outings the Saurians have played within the borders of the Sunshine State. The Bayou Bengals are coming off of an open date and L.S.U. has taken three of the last four series meetings, while Urban Meyer’s club has struggled to get untracked, as the Gators failed to score in the first quarter against desiccated Hawaii, led defenseless Miami (Florida) by a 9-3 margin after three quarters, were outgained by a downtrodden Tennessee team while benefiting from Volunteer miscues, lost to mediocre Mississippi, and were up 17-7 against awful Arkansas with twelve minutes remaining in the game. The Tigers are going to romp in the Swamp.

For whatever they might be worth, those are this week’s S.E.C. predictions, in which you should place no stock whatsoever. Remember . . . I’m awful at this, so you rely upon my prognosticating skills at your own considerable peril. Succinctly stated, the governing principle is simple: Don’t Bet On It!

Coming Soon: National Games of Interest.

Go ‘Dawgs!