SB Nation User Blog: TBird41

Schedule Analysis--One Month Left

TBird41 — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 15:34:18 -0000

With only one month left in the season, and since all three teams vying for the two final playoff spots have the same number of games left (25), I thought it’d be a good idea to update my schedule analysis from earlier in the season. Currently, the Twins and White Sox are tied at 77-60 and the Red Sox have a 3 game lead on both teams in the Wild Card Race with an 8-57 record.

Like the last time, I broke teams up into three groups using some combination of run differential and actual record and I’ll be the first to admit it wasn’t scientific so much as by gut. The groups are the playoff contenders (a much smaller group this time, as there are only five teams still in the hunt), the average teams (teams that aren’t awful, but aren’t making the playoffs) and the bad teams (the Royals, Orioles and all non Anaheim based AL West teams). The groups are as follows:

Playoff teams: Tampa Bay, Boston, Chicago, Minnesota, Anaheim

Average teams: New York, Toronto, Cleveland, Detroit

Bad Teams: Baltimore, Kansas City, Texas, Oakland, Seattle

	Twins Road	Twins Home	Chicago Road	Chicago Home	Boston Road	Boston Home
	3 TOR 3 BAL 3 CLE 4 TB	3 DET 6 KC 3 CHI	2 CLE 4 NYY 3 KC 3 MN	3 LAA 4 TOR 3 DET 3 CLE	3 TEX 3 TB 3 TOR	2 BAL 3 TB 4 TOR 4 CLE 3 NYY
Total Games	13	12	12	13	9	16
Playoff Teams	4	3	3	3	3	3
Average Teams	6	3	6	10	3	11
Bad Teams	3	6	3	0	3	2

So which team’s schedule sets them up the best to make the playoffs? The Red Sox, followed by the Twins and then White Sox. Boston has 16 games left at home, mostly against average teams and they are tied with the White Sox for fewest games against playoff teams. They also have that three game cushion, which means that Boston really has no excuse to miss the playoffs, whether or not Josh Beckett throws another pitch this year.

The Twins schedule isn’t quite as comfortable as the Red Sox’, but it’s still better than the White Sox’. While they have one more road game (and one more road game against a playoff team), they get to play half of their home games against Kansas City (a bad team) while the White Sox don’t get to play any, instead getting 10 of their games in the cell against Toronto, Detroit and Cleveland. And the White Sox also have to travel to Minnesota for a three game series.

So while it looks like the Wild Card is coming out of the AL East, the schedule is working in the Twins favor when it comes to the AL Central. It’s not so favorable that the division crown is a lock, but it is nice enough that there’s no doubt that White Sox would love to switch schedules with the Twins.

Schedule Analysis for the Stretch Run

TBird41 — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 13:56:28 -0000

An analysis of the Twins, White Sox and Tigers remaining schedule.

I don't normally post (or comment) here, but I'm an avid reader. I normally just write about the Vikings over at my site, The Ragnarok, but I was looking at the schedule for the final two months of the season and I figured I'd share the good news-based on my calculations, the Twins have the easiest schedule of the three teams vying for the AL Central crown.

Here's how I figured it out. First, I grouped the teams in the AL into three categories, Playoff Contenders, Average Teams, and Bad Teams, by looking at their run differentials, record and place in the standings. I put the Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays and Angels in the first group, the Blue Jays, Rangers and Oakland in the second group and the Indians, Orioles, Royals and Mariners in the last group. The two teams I had the hardest time with were the Orioles and Indians, but, in the end, it doesn't really matter too much for this exercise whether you consider them average teams or bad teams, because each team plays them the same number of times (except the White Sox, who still have to finish a postponed game with them).

Using these groupings, I then went through the Twins, White Sox and Tigers schedules and broke them down like this:

	Twins Road	Twins Home	Chicago Road	Chicago Home	Detroit Road	Detroit Home
	6 SEA 3 KC 4 LAA 4 OAK 3 TOR 3 BAL 3 CLE 4 TB	3 CLE 3 NYY 3 SEA 3 OAK 3 DET 6 KC 3 CWS	6 KC 3 OAK 4 BAL 3 BOS 3 CLE 4 NYY 3 MIN	6 DET 4 BOS 3 KC 3 SEA 3 TB 3 LAA 3 CLE 4 TOR	3 TB 6 CHW 6 TEX 3 KC 3 MIN 3 CLE	6 OAK 4 TOR 3 BAL 3 CLE 6 KC 1 NYY 3 LAA 4 TB
Total Games	30	24	26	29	24	30
Playoff Teams	8	9	10	16	12	8
Average Teams	7	3	3	4	6	10
Bad Teams	15	12	13	9	6	12

As you can see, the Twins have the most road games, but they also have the easiest road schedule, playing 15 of their 30 away games against bad teams, and only 8 road games against playoff contenders. The White Sox play 13 road games against bad teams, but they also have to play 10 games against playoff contenders on the road. The Tigers have the fewest road games, but they have to play half of them against playoff contenders and they only have 6 games on the road left against bad teams.

The home schedule breaks in the Twins' favor as well. Despite playing the fewest home games, the Twins play 12 games against bad teams, six more than the White Sox and the same number as the Tigers. And while the Tigers have the fewest home games against playoff teams, that means they are the only team that has more games against playoff contenders on the road than at home.

So, despite not making any moves at the deadline, the Twins are still in the best position of the three AL Central contenders because they have the easiest schedule. The team they’re chasing and the team chasing them each has fewer games left against bad teams and more games left with playoff contenders. I’ve watched the Vikings fail to make the playoffs the last few years despite having the easiest schedule with only a few games left in the season, so I know that it doesn’t matter who you play, but rather how you play. That being said, I’d much rather be pulling for the team with the easier schedule.

Guzman's OBP

TBird41 — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 19:58:39 -0000

Living out here in DC, I attended the Nats game last night, which allowed me to see an old, aggressive, friend, Mr. Christian "Doesn't Walk" Guzman. And lest you think I'm joking, Guzman's OBP is actually lower than his batting average. I don't know how he does it, but his batting average was .294 this morning, and his OBP was .288.

I mean, I wasn't expecting Guzman to have a great OBP or anything, but one lower than his batting average? How is that even possible? I figured this would the place to ask--isn't OBP just (hits+walks)/plate appearances?

Big Pat Parties In the Backfield

TBird41 — Tue, 10 Oct 2006 19:30:14 -0000

Picking which Viking was most responsible for Sunday's victory was not an easy decision. The Wisconsin women and I debated well into the night (What? You thought they didn't get some say in the matter?) trying to determine who they were going to spend the week with. There were just so many valid choices--Chester Taylor, Pat Williams, E.J. Henderson, Napoleon Harris, Ben Leber, Ray Edwards and arguments could be (and were) made for almost every major defensive player.

Make no mistake about it--that was a dominating performance by the defense, and one that likely saved the Vikings' season. That conclusion, along with his inability to get into the end zone in three tries from the seven yard line, eliminated Chester Taylor. If he continues to run the ball this well (4.73 yards per carry!), however, he'll be in the discussion in upcoming weeks.

And so that leaves us with the defensive standouts. E.J. Henderson and Ben Leber both managed to house turnovers, Napoleon Harris continued his fine play by picking off a tipped Jon Kitna pass and Ray Edwards had a sack and forced Kitna to rush the pass that Henderson picked off. In the end, though, Pat Williams' play topped them all. He was the one who destroyed Kitna in the midst of his play fake (that's how quickly he got through the line), forcing him to fumble in the end zone. And he is the centerpiece of the Viking's rush defense, which held the Lions to 16 yards. 16 yards!!! Kevin Jones didn't even average a yard a carry! I don't care how bad the Lions' line was, that kind of dominance is astonishing. And that's why he's going to spend the bye week (heeding Childress' call to behave, of course) with the Wisconsin women.

More of my thoughts on the game are at The Ragnarok

The Brett Farve Interception Watch

TBird41 — Tue, 03 Oct 2006 14:09:14 -0000

Brett Farve continues to chase George Blanda for the career interception mark. He threw two last night, bringing his season total to 5. He's currently on pace to throw 20 for the season, which would leave him two short of tying Blanda's record of 277. He can definitely still do it, but he can't afford to have any more games without an interception, like he did last week. I have faith in him though.

Also, can someone please explain to the media that Brett Farve holds the record for most consecutive starts for a QUARTERBACK, not the record for most consecutive starts overall? That would be Jim Marshall's record. It's like people continually bringing up the third baseman with the most consecutive starts and never mentioning Cal Ripken Jr.

(More thoughts on other NFL teams are at my site, The Ragnarok )

A Tricky Situation

TBird41 — Tue, 26 Sep 2006 03:38:35 -0000

Personally, I thought Brad Johnson's contract was a non issue. Something writer's had drummed up during training camp and had gone away. I guess not . To be honest, I'm not sure what the Vikings should do here. Brad Johnson is not the starting quarterback of the future. He might not even be the starting quarterback next year. And if that's the case, I think the Vikings should save their money.

And I thought that was the case, prior to the announcement on Friday that Tarvaris Jackson was going to miss a month of the season undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his knee. I figured Tarvaris was on Daunte's career path, only without all the fumbled snaps. That all changed with the injury--that month of practice was important for Tarvaris' development. How much, we won't know for awhile, but knee surgery for a mobile quarterback trying to make the jump from 1-AA could be the kind of setback where the Vikings' don't feel comfortable with him under center next year.

All of which brings us back to Brad Johnson and his contract extension. If this is his last year starting for the Vikings, then upgrading his contract is probably a mistake. If they need him for next year too, then they should invest the money and make sure he's happy. If he's going to back up Tarvaris next year, then it isn't worth it. It's the kind of decision you can't make without knowing how quickly Tarvaris rebounds from the surgery, but one that likely can't wait that long.

And that's why, as much as it pains me, I think the Vikings should make sure they take care of BJ. My guess is they'll need him under center next year because of Tarvaris' setback. They might end up moving him back to the second string next year, but, provided he doesn't require a massive contract upgrade to be happy, I think the Vikings' should make sure he is.

[I would also like to say that wins for quarterbacks are even more meaningless than they are for starting pitchers in baseball. If the Vikings had won on Sunday, Brad Johnson would have had about as much to do with it as I did. You'd think that Trent Dilfer's Super Bowl ring would have put that stat to rest, but I guess some people are still clinging to it. Yes, there is a difference between a quarterback that loses games and the Dilfers/Johnsons of the world. Not losing the game does not, however, mean that the quarterback had ANYTHING TO DO WITH THE WIN. So let's stop pretending it matters that Brad Johnson is 9-3 with the Vikings, because it doesn't.]

Poll

Should the Vikings Pay Brad Johnson More Money?

Yes-He's Earned It

1 votes

Yes-They need him next year

2 votes

No-They don't need him next year

3 votes

No-He's overrated

2 votes

8 votes | Poll has closed

Wisconsin Women Love Blanda Impersonations

TBird41 — Mon, 18 Sep 2006 12:52:14 -0000

Now, I don't want to set the precedant where Ryan Longwell gets to party with the Wisconsin Women just because he kicks a game winning field goal. Kickers are important, but they don't normally win games so much as finish them out, similar to a closer in baseball. However, when you are responsible for all of the Vikings' points, including the game winner in overtime, AND you throw a touchdown pass on a fake field goal? Well, that's the kind of performance those Wisconsin girl appreciate, as I'm sure Ryan Longwell knows from his days in Green Bay, which is why he gets to party with them tonight!

That all being said, I hope he invites Napoleon Harris (for his 10 tackles and two huge sacks including the one that was erroneously overturned in OT) and Chester Taylor (for having a break out game and busting off a 33 yard run to set up Longwell's game winning field goal) to his party, as they were just as deserving as he was tonight.

If you're intersted on my thoughts on the game, I've posted them and the Farve Interception Watch over at my website, The Ragnarok

Wisconsin Women for BJ!

TBird41 — Tue, 12 Sep 2006 14:34:18 -0000

It's time to award the season's first Wisconsin Women to the player most responsible for the Vikings' victory. After every victory this year, one player will get to celebrate with Hudson girls over at the Ragnarok , which as we learned after the Raven's game, is clearly the best way to celebrate (by the way, mad props to Childress for suspending Dwight Smith--Now THAT is some discipline my friends).

So, without further ado, let's introduce our first winner to his prizes (drum roll please) and the winner is...Brad Johnson! BJ's play against the Redskins was superb last night, as he completed 16 of 30 passes for 223 yards and a touchdown (there's a reason Wisconsin women are partying with Vikings' QBs now--it's the lack of interceptions), and he should have had more yards, except for Troy Williamson dropping passes he should have caught. He also did a great job of avoiding the Redskins' vaunted pass rush by stepping up and sidestepping the Redskins defenders, buying valuable seconds for his receivers to get open. And finally, sealing the deal with the Hudson girls, he taunted the Redskins on the way out, flashing his old `Skins jersey. So congratulations Brad Johnson, for leading the Vikings to victory, taunting your former franchise and closing the deal with the Wisconsin Women!

the Ragnarok

Two Backups for the Price of One

TBird41 — Thu, 07 Sep 2006 01:17:45 -0000

I'm taking a break from my team preview over at the Ragnarok (I've already looked at the Vikings' special teams and offense) to recommend that Brad Childress take a page from the playbook of a different Hall of Fame coach than Bill Walsh. If he's smart, he'll notice while scouting the `Skins that their quarterback situation is very similar to the Vikings. They have a veteran quarterback that's reached the "game manager" stage of their career as their established starter, a quarterback that's bounced from back up position to back up position and a young quarterback that's has the talent and ability to be a star but is still a year or more away.

While Childress is leaning toward installing the recently acquired Brooks Bollinger as the backup ahead of Tarvaris Jackson, Joe Gibbs has already decided what to do with future star Jason Campbell and journeyman Todd Collins--he's making both of them the `Skins number two quarterback. If Brunell gets hurt during a game, Collins will go in to finish, but if Brunell's is out for the week, Campbell will get the start, and gain valuable experience.

This is the kind of intelligent coaching that the Vikings' have been missing. Tarvaris has established himself as the quarterback of the future, but even the biggest rube knows he isn't yet ready to be the starting quarterback, and having a rookie as the backup quarterback on a playoff team is asking for trouble. That being said, with a week of preparation, he gives the Vikings' a better chance to win than Bollinger does, and it gives him a chance to gain experience while practicing as the starter and in the game. If Childress is as good a coach as I think he is, he'll see that Gibbs' two backup system is one that fits the Vikings' situation as well as it does the `Skins'.

The Ragnarok

I Hate the Preseason

TBird41 — Fri, 01 Sep 2006 14:42:27 -0000

The preseason is awful. It's boring, it's too long and it doesn't mean anything. And worst of all, there's really only one way to be successful, and it has nothing to do with wins and losses (or, you know, ties). The only way to be successful in the preseason is to avoid injuries to important players, like, say, your first round draft pick, your starting safety, or your starting nickelback.

Since, however, the Vikings seem to be allergic to success, they failed to get out of their final preseason game without another significant injury, this time to Dovonte "Farve Fears Me" Edwards. Nothing like a broken arm to your nickelback to get you ready for the season opener.

In other news, the Vikings are the least valuable franchise in the NFL. Now, I know the Metrodome sucks, but I'm not sure how the Saints are more valuable, considering everyone left their city. Then again, maybe playing in the Metrodome is worse for a franchise's value than having a hurricane destroy the city it plays in.

Finally, I'd like to thank everyone who participated in my search for a new jersey. Sadly, I was unable to go with either of the top two choices due to forces outside of my control--I couldn't find a white Smoot Jersey, and a custom Tarvaris jersey wouldn't have gotten to me in time. So I went with an Antoine Winfield away jersey. Hopefully #26 will work out as well for me as #84 did.

The Ragnarok