Let's try and find a good move Ed Wade has made:

The Tejada deal gave the Astros an underperfomring SS with 13 mil per year contract and we gave up cheap young players with possible upside.  On top of that Wade has told Tejada he will not be traded from the Astros this season.  Why?  Because you might get a prospect or two?  Is he afraid of lowering payroll?  He can't be worried about having a bad baseball team because he already does.

The best piece we got for Brad Lidge was Geary.  A good closer for a good 7th inning guy...

Jose Valverde - We gave up Qualls who has a lower ERA and lower WHIP but at least we got a closer.  Right?

And now we have LaTroy Hawkins.  Every bulpen needs a guy with a 5.7 ERA.  Yippie!

There could be an underlying grand scheme that only he Wade knows.  Otherwise Ed Wade has shown to have entered the GM realm of Tim Purpura and he should be fired.

The CBs starts the season with what everyone thinks the W/L total will be and I want to do it now that we have seen a decent slice of what the team has. 

I think the 75-87 is about right for what they have shown so far so I am putting my number there.

Does anyone think they will that much better or worse?

Make your predictions now and let's see who the best prognosticator is.  Or who started drinking at lunch on Firday and goes for 86-78. 

I was going to do my usual ‘Things that worry me…’ but I realized that just about everything the Astros do worries me now.  They are poorly owned, poorly led, lacking talent, and apparently void of self control in some situations.

The Owner…It all starts at the top with Drayton McLane.  McLane is one of the worst owners in baseball.  He cannot see beyond the end of his nose as to what to do to help the Astros win.  He will pay Carlos Lee 100 million dollars but not spend 10 bucks on player development.  The Astros system is void of talent that can help the team in the next couple years.  Of course Drayton could never envision trading high end players to try and bolster the minor league system.  He would rather keep these guys so that when the Astros finally do have something coming out of the system today’s stars  will be to old to contribute at their present levels.  So McLane will continue lying to his fans and saying the Astros are going to compete so he can try and keep fans in the seats and keep the money coming.  He is not smart enough to see that if told us the team was going to rebuild we would still go.  Instead he lies to us and pisses us off.

The GM…Well I think after last nights incident we can see how well he treats his players.  How come none of the players said that what Chacon did was wrong?  Do they all like Wade as much as Chacon?  Of course Wade’s philosophy of a strong bullpen has worked real well.  So what if there is no lead to protect.  Why spend the money just to spend the money?  I would never condone Chacon’s actions but I will say I am a little jealous I can’t punch Wade.

The Manager… Cecil Cooper seems to coach with a philosophy of it has always been done that way so we are going to do it that way.  When you are down by one run in the eighth, with no outs, a guy on first, you should have Michael Bourn bunt.  Let’s just ignore the fact that all the numbers say you have a better chance to score with a guy on first and no outs than a guy on second and one out – even if the bunt had been successful.  Yes there are ways the situation could have turned out worse but not many.  Do you really think you are going to hit into a double play with Michael Bourn running?  Cooper needs to try and learn about the game he is coaching.

The Players…I really can’t get down on these guys too much.  They are playing up to – down to? – their talent level.  There are not enough quality arms for the Astros to complete right now no matter how well Berkman and the others can hit.

The Fans – I was at the game last night when Erstad was on first, Bourn hitting, no outs, and the Astros down by one.  The fans beyond the right field fence were trying to start the wave.  Not cheering for the Astros, not giving it to the opposing pitcher, or trying to pump Bourn up.  They were trying to start the wave.  As I not so quietly noted this I was told to stop being a ‘sourpuss’.  I was too surprised to even respond.  This is a tight game with building excitement and a chance for your team to try and win.  But by mentioning that I wanted to see this I was a ‘sourpuss’.  Would you even see something like this in a first class baseball town?  Would Cardinal fans be doing anything but losing their minds and their voices for their team in that situation?  Would Red Sox Nation not be shaking the pillars of Fenway?  But Astros fans are performing a ritual that was cool in Chavez Ravine in 1984.  Way to support your team Astros fans. 

At this point you can see that I am frustrated with just about everything Astros’.  Unfortunately I can only see losing seasons for the next 5-7 years unless serious changes are made.  At least the fans will have the wave down. 

No I am not kidding.  They have regressed to the mean and need to do something. 

There are quite a few obstacles to overcome to make this work but it can happen and can make the Astros a better team in the long run. 

The first things we have to do is get rid of the owner or change his mind set.  The Astros have one of the worst owners in professional sports who does not get that fans know what we are looking at – especially those on message boards like this.  Do not offer us a line about how the Astros are going to win and then feed us bullshit.  We know the difference. We are smart enough to understand that depending on the market and personnel rebuilding may be necessary some times.  Tell us that is going to happen and we will still come see the games.  That way when the winning starts we will brag that we have been there all along.  Drayton does not get this.  Up to this point he has stuck with what Billy Wagner said and just tried to compete and not win.  All Uncle Drayton wants is fans in the seats.  He got lucky early with Hunsicker as the GM.  Now he has Drayton Junior as the GM and everybody follows the line given to them by the Old Boys Club led by Bud Selig.  Stay in rookie contract slot, open the roof for the WS…  What would an owner like Mark Cuban have done if somebody told him to do that?  So assuming we can’t get rid of Drayton let’s break out the two by fours and change his way of thinking. 
Second we need to find a GM who can figure out that no matter how good your bullpen is if your starters suck then it does you no good.  All the Astros did was a hire another member of the Old Boys Club who would tow the line.  Drayton Junior needs to go. 

Next move is to get rid of Carlos Lee.  The reason I say trade Lee are that he has the longest and largest contract.  Ok the guy can hit but he is getting older, slower, and fatter and his contract is getting bigger and has four years left after this season.  The food bill alone will be worth the trade.  Find an AL team who will give up a couple solid prospects and dump El Caballo. 

Next…Everyone not named Pence and Towles is available.  Yes I mean Berkman, Oswalt, Valverde, and the rest.  A few would have to waive their no trade clause but what do you think the Indians would give for Berkman or the Yankees for Oswalt if they would go?  Not quite a kings ransom but not far from it either. 

OR…Drayton can open up the pocket book big time this off-season and sign Sabathia and a Wolf/Burnett/Penny type and try and buy a winning team. 

Of course they could just keep giving us the same bullshit and try not to come in last. 

At this point I really think that Oswalt may have an injury that is causing him to pitch so poorly.  No movement on the fastball, curve that is only there some of the time, and not the dominant number one Astros fans have gotten used to.  This guy has been as consistent as can be expected for his entire career but this year it is just not there this season. 

In the last 6 seasons only once did he not go at least 212 innings and his worst ERA and WHIP have been 3.49 and 1.33.  This year he is on pace for 5.6 and 1.49.  He also have 6 QSs in 11 games.  In the last 3 years he has averaged 24 QSs and 33 starts. 

What is wrong?  Has he worn down?  I don't think so.  He is only 30 - 31 next month - which is not old and he has shown no signs of it before.  Is his groin an issue?  Is there something else we don't know about?

I am loving the way the Astros are fighting and clawing for wins, coming from behind, and having fun while playing with a never say die attitude.  Can it continue without that one sure thing every five games and a top of the order guy?  I just don't see it. 

Why can the powers that be not make an easy move and put instant replay to use in baseball.  This is shifting a paradigm or moving any moutains to get it done.  At least three times in the past week umps have missed an HR call that would have taken 30 seconds to overturn and get right.  At least for calling the HRs MLB needs to make this happen.  It is not hard to implement,  is completely transparent, and is fair for all sides. 

For some reason the Randy Johnson/Shawn Chacon game keeps popping up in my mind.  I hate that loss.

The offense from the bench.  Besides Erstad the bats there just don't inspire confidence.

Michael Bourn's OBP.  He's got three hits and two walks in May.  Ugh.  That has got to get better or move Matsui to lead off.  He cannot keep swinging and missing at the first pitch.  And whay does he keep popping out to RF?  The guy is one of  the fastest players in the game.  HIT THE BALL ON THE GROUND AND RUN!  

And things that don't...

The starting pitching is still going strong.  They are not world beaters but they give the team a chance to win.

This team scraps.  I do not remember an Astros team that would fight game to game for wins and not let down.  These guys are blue collar ball players and will use all 27 outs (or more) to get a win.  I love seeing it. 

The offense.  Matsui is doing much better than I expected, Tejada is loving the short porch in left,  Pence is starting to show power, and Berkman... well his OPS is 1195.  That is not just kind of good.

2 over 500 and a 5 GAME WIN STEAK!

Having to pitch to Albert Pujols this weekend.  His #'s against the Astros are 313, 405, and 568 which are actually below his career #'s but he does seem to get some clutch hits against us.  That sound was me hitting myself with my monitor.

What do we do with Wiggington once he comes back into the lineup?  Can he slide back into the lineup without causing a problem?

What is going to go wrong?  Sorry the Houston sports fan in me is a fatalist (realist?)  The defense can't keep this up right? The starters (including Matt Cassel) can't keep going this way can they?  Are the Astros this good?

And things that don't...

Roy Oswalt...Last 2 start, 14 innings, 4 ER, 11 hits, 4 walks, 10 Ks.  That is guy we all know and love

The bats are finally doing what we need them to do. 

Mr Cooper.  I am impressed so far with his willingness to move guys around in the lineup, make some changes to get the guys who are going well where they need to be, while still not stonewalling guys that need to get out there and work our their problems.  So far I am giving him an A. 

Does anybody know where the real Roy O was for his first three starts?

Does anybody know where the Astros offense was till the last couple days?

Does anyone know where the real Astros defense is?  Or more importantly how to keep it there?  I like the one we have now. 

If anyone does know where the defense is hiding do you know how to put other things there?  Such as pitchers named Peavy?  Otherwise I think the Astros offense might end up back in hiding again. 

Does anyone know why I don't get anything done at work?  This really confuses me.

The .275 OBP is the worst in the NL.  Not getting hits AND not taking a walk.  Not good.  

The bullpen that Ed Wade spent the offseason revamping stinks.

That Ed Wade is the GM.  Pausing to take a swig of bleach

And things that don't...

Roy Oswalt.  Two poor starts do not make me nervous.  Over the past 5 years he has been one of the best in baseball

The defense.  I am not sure where it came from but I am not going to complain.  Two errors in 10 games?  Anyone who says they saw that coming I have a polygraph set up for.

Berkman, Lee, and Tejada in the middle of the lineup.  These guys will hit.  It is just what they do. 

I have spent the last 2 1/2 weeks working in Angola and it is hard to get news much a decent internet connection there so will someone tell me what is going on.  Here is what I have gathered since I got back and none of it seems to correlate with the Astros team I expected to see going into '08.

The defense is playing very well.  In fact they have the 2nd best fielding percentage in baseball and lead the NL.

The offense has scored more than 5 runs twice.  And one of those games the Astros lost.

The starting pitching has been good.  Four Astros starters have an ERA under 4.25 and none of them are named Oswalt.  How much would you have lost on this bet going into the season?  100 bucks, a 1000? 

The bullpen which Ed Wade spent so much time on in the offseason has three loses already and the 2 studs - Valverde and Villareal have an ERA of about 8. 

Did my plane home enter and parallel but very divergent universe?  What is going on? 

That the Astros will have a good bullpen and no leads to protect
Michael Bourn leading off
Any starter not named Oswalt
The farm system - or what the Astros try and call a farm system
Valentine's Day

And things that don't...
Oswalt
Berkman
Lee
Pitchers and catchers report in less than a month.  I love just saying it.
Opening day - Roy Oswalt v Jake Peavy.  If that does not get you excited you are on the wrong site.  

Per MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22189702/
Along with a bunch of others;
Yes, Tejada, Pujols, and a bunch of other All-Stars and HOFers.

As I look at the Tejada trade.
Yes the Astros did give up a lot BUT they did not give up any can't miss stars.  They did get a really good hitting SS and replaced a really bad hitting SS.
At this point let's say the Astros are about 8 games better with Tejada than with Everett.  So that leaves them at 81-81 for 2008.  So did they mortgage the future so they could get back to 500?  That would leave them 4-10 games short of the post season.  How do they make up those games?  
I am going to give this trade a chance for now.  But I want to see what else happens.
Take a shot on Prior?  Let the young arms dual it out and hope?  What are the other options?

Ed Wade as the new GM.  Does anybody else think he has to scratch on the door for Tal or Drayton to let him outside?
A bullpen with full of solid relievers and no closer
A starting staff full of number 5 starters.
Our middle infielders OBP
The thought that the Astros are at the bottom of the barrel in MLB and moving sideways.

And things that don't...
That one of those young number 5 starters might learn something from Roy
Pence, Berkman, Lee in any order in the line up
Our middle infielders Fielding Percentage
That our lead off hitters OBP will be better in 08 than it was in 07
Giving Towles, Patton, Paulino and anyone other prospect a chance before they hit their late 20's.  

Per an ESPN.com article he will be getting a 4 yr, 25 million dollar contract.  
I am glad the Astros did not pony up that kind of cash for him.

Ed Wade as the Astros GM
Drayton thinking he knows more than he does
Who the number 2 starter will be
Who the number 3 starter will be
The lead off hitters OBP

And things that don't...
Who the number 1 starter will be
The 3-5 hitters
That one new guy will impress in ST
Hunter Pence hustling enough
The fact that I am thinking about this stuff in November.

OK I already ran one of these about 'what if' the Astros want to win next year.  Here is one to see if the Astros are willing to spend a year rebuilding and to see what they should do.
Best case scenario is that Towles and Anderson work out and can start at C and CF respectively.  Both have OBP there is no way they can maintain for a season but even if they lose 100 points they can still be productive.  Anderson can cover center and lead off and Towles offers an upgarde over Ausmus in defense and with the bat.  At that point I would say find a short term solution at 2nd or short to hit in the two hole.  
As for the pitching staff some of the young guys have already shown that they deserve a shot.  It will of course start with Roy and then probably Woody, Backe and then take your pick from Guitierez, Patton, Wandy, Albers, Sampson, and so on.  The bullpen will most likely Qualls 8th and Lidge 9th.  I have liked Sarfate who has a good fastball and great numbers so far.  They do not need to spend any money for late inning pitchers who will just be holding a loss anyway.  
I like what the young guys have shown and think they should get a chance.  Just don't bullshit me next year and say we expect to win and then only do it 70 times.  

For a player to be named or cash considerations.
Maybe we should let them know OP is available too?

I am glad I didn't quit my day job.
I don't care if Wade finds guys like Utley and Howard or ends up with Burrel and David Bell.  I just want a winning team on the field.
My problem with this is I think we just got Tal's buddy and not the best GM. Wade did nothing overly impressive in Philly so I don't know why we should expect it here. And I here Tal and Drayton will have more hands on instead of less with the team. That is bad and real bad. Tal did less as GM than Wade and and Drayton is no where near as smart as he thinks. Good luck Ed.  You get a two day grace period, after that the guys on TCB are coming after you.
First Question:
Whose gonna be the manager?

A couple articles list Wade and Amaro as the 2 finalists for the Astros GM position.  I think I would prefer Amaro and a little new blood.  As long as he will tell Drayton where to stick it when he tries to butt in on the personnel decisions.

Third base, no outs, with a chance to stick it to the Cubs and you guys wet your pants.
I guess that kind of sums up the season.

I am going to try and go with a scenario here that the Astros will try and spend money this offseason and go back to  their winning ways next year.
In this situation I think a lead off hitter and another middle of the order bat are needed.  I say spend it on Luis Castillo type to lead off and either Rowand or Hunter in CF moving Pence to right.  Go with let's out hit them and hope the pitchers can do enough to hold them off.  As detailed a few weeks ago in TCB when the Astros out hit the other guys  they win a tremendous percent of the games and jus the opposite when they don't.  This leaves Castillo to lead off and Berkman, Lee, Pence, and Rowand/Hunter in some order from 3-6.  That's pretty solid.  
It does leave poor bats at catcher and SS if no one else is signed.  Assuming Wiggington is back he is servicable at third and not bad if he is your #7 hitter.
The rotation ends up being Oswalt, Woody, Backe and then 2 from the group of Wandy (who might have to be kept if just for TCB purposes), Albers, Sampson, Patton, etc.  And the bullpen is Lidge, Qualls and fill in the blanks.  
Can we get 85 wins from that?  More?  Will Drayton and the new Drayton Junior GM go for it?  What would you guys do different?
I will go with a rebuilding year line-up in a later post.  

The Astros made about as big a move as you can make short of trading Berkman and Oswalt.  What I am wondering now is who will take over.
As for the manager I am on the other end of Stros Bro and think Cooper actually has the best chance to get the job.  The way I see it Cooper can only help himself in the last month of the season.  So what if he goes 13-18?  Is Drayton going to think he is a bad manager because of that?  I think Drayton knows he has a bad ball team at this point and is not going to blame Cooper.
Other names I have heard are Tony Pena who is respected in NY but quit on KC.  LaRussa who has the experience and brains but I cannot see St. Louis letting that happen.  How about Dusty Baker - who can kill and young pitchers arm or Girardi?
I think Cooper has the best shot to get the full-time job next year but his odds are 1 in 4.
As for the GM... Now this one I think is way up in the air.  Forget Randy Smith and Jocketty.  I have heard both but can't see it happening.  Ricky Bennett and David Gottfried are both in the organization but I think Drayton will want some new blood.  I like the idea of Dan Evans.  He has respect in the industry and has been talked about for a while as a future GM.  Jerry DePodesta is also worth a look.  He did not get along with the Dodgers higher ups when he was there but I think he deserves another chance.
The best candidate out there - Me.  I already spend most of my day thinking about baseball, work cheap, would never have made the Jennings trade, would not have signed Woody for 2 years, and I have no problem writing checks with Drayton's money.  

Possible offseason moves made by Tim Purpura
Lack of lead off hitter
Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee in right and left field
Highest draft pick signed - 5th round

And things that don't...

Offseason when Tim Purpura is the one moved (and I am the one deciding what to do with Drayton's money)
Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee at the plate
Troy Patton getting a major league start
Hunter Pence back on the field

And some questions for everyone I will be thinking about and putting in my answers to in the next few days:
What is the Astros biggest offseason need?
Should the Astros save their money this offseason, see what the younger guys can do, and use the money later to fill holes or use the money now and fill the holes they see?
Will Purpura and/or Garner be fired and if so who will/should take over? I am officially announcing my candidacy for the position of Astros GM.

I read an article that said Peavy expects to be traded before his contract expires and it seems that Johan Santana might be traded this offseason because the Twins do not think they will be able to sign him to an extension.  So what would you give up to get one of them and have the best one/two rotation in baseball?
Remember Santana's contract is up at the end of the '08 and Peavy's '09 but I am thinking both of them will cost 5/6 years for 100 million plus.
Would you trade Pence and Patton?  More?  None of them and build with what we have?  
I am very torn on this and want to see what you guys think.

5 years - 91.5 million.  Per ESPN http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2978642
He sold himself short by not trying out free agency but if he wanted to stay in Chicago more power to him.  I was thinking he could have gotten 6 years 120 mil and would have given him 5yr/100 at least to pitch along side Oswalt.  Well along with everything else now we have face Evil-Z for the next five years.  Tough being an Astros fan today.

Ok I was trying to look at some good things about the Astros so I started thinking about next year.
I heard that the Astros will have about 25 million to spend on players for next season after they get guys off this years payroll - including Bagwell's buyout.  Yes this a vague number that can change drastically depending on contract extensions, arbitration, trades, etc...but let's go with it for fun..  
Who we need to drop the cash on?
I want a starting pitcher and lead off hitter.  In that order.
So I say we give Zambrano the Ichiro contract 5 years 90 million - not only do we get a terrific, innings eating pitcher, then we don't have to hit against him.  And then a lead off hitter.  This is a little tougher.  I'll go with Lofton for one year for 4 mil if he'd do it.  He can still get on base, run and cover CF.
Patton and Towles need to be given a legit shot at the end of this season and hopefully they can contribute.  Pence is cheap.  What about a SS with a stick?  Not even a good one stick, just any piece of wood he able to carry to the plate.  Bullpen help?  2nd baseman?
What do you guys think?  Let me know and we can dream about how good the future will be instead of crying over the current record, or plotting to put super glue on the inside of a certain umpiring crews face masks.

Let me get this straight..
The Padres trade Linebrink and get three young pitching propects.
The Astros trade Wheeler for a 30 year old 1base/3base platoon player with a below average OBP and questionable glove.  Last year the Astros traded for a 30 year old 1base/3base platoon player with a below average OBP and questionable glove.  How many times is Purpura going to stick his tongue in a light socket before he figures out it hurts?
I am not saying Wheeler is Linebrink's caliber but Wigginton was the best we could do?  

From all the accounts the Astros are unwilling to trade Lidge, Wheeler or Qualls.  I have heard that Lamb and Loretta are not going anywhere either. What this tells me is that the Astros think they can win next year with the squad they have now.  Unless they intend to make some serious offseason signings - not likely - or have an impact player come up from the minors - doesn't happen often - or go into rebuilding mode.
This is simply a ridiculous base to work from.  How many players do they expect to be that much better that they can contend next year?  Instead they want to keep Lidge because he can be/was one of the games best closers.  I am ok with a good closer as long as the team has enough leads to protect.  Right now the Astros need to try and get the lead more often rather than try and protect the ones they have.  
Lidge is the best bargaining chip the Astros have and if the price is right needs to be dealt for a prospect(s).  A player who contributes 70 innings a year, no matter how good those 70 innnings are, is not as important as an above average full time player or starting pitcher.  
Lamb and Loretta can both bring something in return also.  The Mets and Padres can use Loretta and have prospects to offer.  But so far not one substantial rumor has hit the wire.
SO here is the BIG MOVE...
The person the Astros have to move is Tim Purpura.  He needs to be fired.  Or at the least moved back to player development where he has shown some apptitude.  Purpura has not been able to make a significant move without spending significant money - Carlos Lee - or without it being so obvious a house plant could figure it out - Hunter Pence.  His inept performance and the Astros results should cost Purpura his job.