The top two names I would like to see Dallas pick in the 4th round are OG Clint Boling from Georgia and the 3-4 DE Christian Ballard from Iowa.

Two other guys I would give consideration to are S DeAndre McDaniels from Clemson and OLB Sam Acho from Texas.

But if I had to put money on the pick I'm going with WR Edmund Gates from ACU.

Some guys that interest me in the 5th round would be:  S Tyler Sash from Iowa, Jerrell Powe from Ole Miss, and Greg Romeus from Pitt.

In the 6th lets just go ahead and pick Kicker Alex Henery from Nebraska.  We've never really had a great kicker and this guy looks like the best one to come out in years.

What say you?

Would Tyron Smith and Prince Amukamara be gone?

The only scenario which seems reasonable to me is if Houston takes Amukamara (although I think they will go Defensive front seven) and then Detroit takes Smith directly before Dallas at 14.  Again, I don't think that's likely, but certainly possible.  But Dallas would still be able to pick up either Castonzo/Carmini/Solder or Watt/Jordan.  Those consolation prizes are not bad.  And because I wouldn't be upset with any of those players, I wouldn't even mind a move further back.

I heard two bozos on The Fan 105.3 this morning talking about a rumored trade back with St. Louis, and they acted like if we did this none of our targeted players would be there.  It's only 5 slots people.  And we're assuming the trade up is for Julio Jones, so now it's down to 4 picks between 9 and 14.  Washington and Minnesota don't seem to have the same needs as Dallas.  I think its possible both players would still be available, but surely one would be.

I recently took part in an interactive 7-Round Mock Draft representing the Cowboys.  Each team had a representative and picks were posted to a message board.  Trades were allowed prior to the draft but not during as we figured it would slow things down too much.  I dangled a few players for trade prior and had an offer for Martellus Bennett.  I offered him up because he's not seemed to reach his potential, and with the development of John Phillips, he seemed expendable.  I was hoping to get a 3rd rounder for him and when I was offered a 3rd by the Falcons, I took it.

I entered the draft with the following picks: 1.9, 2.40, 3.71, 3.91, 4.109, 5.140, 6.171, and 7.210.

Below are my picks and my thinking behind each:

Continue reading this post »

As I mentioned in the last post, I'm participating in a mock draft for Dallas on another site.  I'm preparing for our 7th round pick.  Looking to get input from this group.  But again, remember this is the 7th round, so we're getting to the bottom of the barrel.  Options for Dallas:

Continue reading this post »

I'm in the middle of a mock draft on another site.  I'll post the results here for all to critique in a few days once it's completed.  My pick will be up sometime tomorrow for the 6th round.  I'm mulling over some options and wanted to know who you think I should pick for Dallas.  Again, remember its the 6th round.  My options are below:

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LCB Mike Jenkins

RCB Prince Amukamara

Nickle Orlando Scandrick

FS Terence Newman

SS Champ Bailey

I think this could be one of the stronget secondaries in the NFL.  The obvious concern would be not having a big hitter in the secondary.  Newman and Bailey as the Safeties are both decent tacklers, but not guys that are going to be as effective playing in the box and stopping the run.  But they would be better than the spares we had back there last year.  I would think offenses would have a tough time spreading out this secondary and beating them deep.  However, you might see teams using two or even three TEs trying to get a size advantage against them.

Thoughts?

The list of Cowboy Free Agents I saw was as follows:

FS Alan Ball

OT Alex Barron

DE Stephen Bowen

DE Jeremy Clark

OT Doug Free

DE Jason Hatcher

WR Sam Hurd

OG Kyle Kosier

SS Gerald Sensabaugh

DE Marcus Spears

ILB Leon Williams

Not sure if that's a correct or complete list, so please correct me if I'm wrong.

Obviously, Doug Free is our top priority.  He's not going anywhere.  Beyond that, I would keep Bowen, Hatcher, and Kosier if it were me.  And Kosier only if he were willing to sign a short 2-3 year contract at average money.

I would let the Safeties (Ball and Sensy) walk as well as Sam Hurd who will be too expensive for a ST guy.  Spears is a tough call, but I think I take my chances with Bowen, Olshansky, Hatcher, Lissemore, and (if needed) Ratliff at DE.

Your Cowboys had a good week on the draft front.  Although we all hate to see Dallas lose, the loss to Arizona might have helped the team in the long run.  They also got a look at their developmental QB in Stephen McGee, who looked promising.  Again, the Defense looked terrible and (to me, at least) solidified the idea that we have to go Defense with our first pick in the draft.

Carolina has locked up the first pick in the draft and is officially on the clock.  The only decision to be made here is by Stanford Quarterback Andrew Luck.  He either declares for the draft and can start learning the Carolina playbook, or he can choose to go back to school and take his chances again next year.  How important is a Heisman Trophy to him?  And what have we learned from Jake Locker?

Where We’ll Draft – If the season ended today, Dallas would draft 7th.  However two teams below us (Arizona and San Francisco) play each other and one will fall below us in draft order assuming we get beat by Philly.  That would put us at 6th.  There are scenarios in which we get in the top 5 and scenarios in which we draft outside the top 10.  And with Philly having nothing to play for this weekend and sitting several gimpy starters, I think there is a good chance Dallas does pull off the upset. 

Here are the records of the teams vying for a top 10 pick:

Games this week that could assist in Dallas’s draft position:

* Dallas has a much higher Strength of Schedule than Denver, so even a Denver win against San Diego and Dallas loss wouldn’t put Dallas ahead of Denver.

Cincy @ Baltimore – Need a Cincy win.

Buffalo @ NY Jets – Need a Buffalo win.

Detroit vs Minny – Need a Detroit win.  This is a rather big one because Detroit’s "need" positions are very similar to Dallas’s.  So we need them to draft after us.

Arizona @ San Francisco – If Dallas loses to Philly, the winner of this game drafts after us and loser ahead of us. Because I’m rooting for a CB to be drafted, I’m rooting for San Francisco to win this game.  They are more likely to draft a CB than Arizona.

Houston vs Jax – Need Houston win.

Cleveland vs Pitt – Need a Cleveland win.

Seattle vs StL – Need a Seattle win.

Tenn @ Indy – Need a Tenn win.

Wash vs NYG – Need a Wash win.

Dallas @ Philly – Hopefully McGee plays (and plays well) but we come up just short.

Let’s assume we end up with the 6th pick, which is the most likely scenario.  We can now safely assume one or more of these elite prospects will be available for us to draft.  I’m in favor of not trading down.  With Top 5 talent available, I think we keep the pick. 

Here’s my analysis on the elite prospects:

QB (3) – Andrew Luck, Stanford; Ryan Mallett, Arkansas; Cam Newton, Auburn.  Some might disagree, but Jake Locker doesn’t seem elite to me.  For those that hate on Newton, swap out Locker.

HB – None.

WR (2) – AJ Green, Georgia; Julio Jones, Alabama

OL – None.

DL (3) – Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson; Nick Fairley, Auburn; Marcell Dareus, Alabama;

LB (1) – Robert Quinn (DE/OLB), North Carolina;

DB (2) – Patrick Peterson, LSU; Prince Amukamara, Nebraska;

Just outside:  WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State; DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa; OLB Akeen Ayers, UCLA; RB Mark Ingram, Alabama; DE/OLB Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue; DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State, OLB Von Miller, Tx A&M; CB Janoris Jenkins, Florida; and maybe DE Cameron Jordan, Cal.

Here are some of the "expert" drafts I found posted recently:

The mock draft I pay most attention to is from WalterFootball.  Their first round pick of Amukamara didn’t change from last week.  However, in the second round Rahim Moore (FS, UCLA) is taken before we pick.  I think that’s likely. I also don’t think we make secondary our first two selections.  Has to be an Offensive Lineman here.  The O Line prospects still available in the WalterFootball draft are as follows:

Benjamin Ijalana, OT/OG, Villannova – Pick 40

DeMarcus Love, OT, Arkansas – Pick 42

Rodney Hudson, OG, Florida State – Pick 46

Nate Solder, OT, Colorado – Pick 48

Tyron Smith, OT, USC – Pick 52

Matt Reynolds, OT, BYU – Pick 54

Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU – Pick 59

Marcus Gannon, OG, TCU – Pick 61

I don’t know about you, but I love this list.  Even if you don’t think all of them will be there (many Mocks have Smith, Solder, and Love as first rounders) there are still other names on this list that will be.  I would be happy to have Ijalana or Gannon in the second round.  The point I’m trying to make is don’t panic.  There will be good O Linemen available in the second round.  Don’t try and force one in the first.  And is a Gabe Carimi (OT, Wisconsin) or Anthony Costanzo (OT, Boston College) really that much better than some of the guys on this list above?  I say no.

Sticking with the WalterFootball mock, if we took a Lineman in the 2nd round we could turn our attention back to the Defense in the third round.  Two guys I really like that are available are Pitt DE Greg Romeus and Oregon ILB Casey Matthews.  Casey might get overdrafted a bit because he’s Clay’s brother and he will be in the BCS National Championship game.

So there you have it.  Our last update before we know our actual draft position.  Next week we will have more definitive information to work with.  (But, what fun is that?)  In coming weeks we can look at trade-up scenarios, trade-down scenarios, and I will start posting scouting reports on some of these players I’m talking about.  Looking forward to reading your comments.

I will leave you with my own Mock Draft for the first half of the first round:

1) Panthers – QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
2) Broncos – CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
3) Bengals – AJ Green, Georgia
4) Bills – DT Nick Fairley, Auburn

5) Cardinals - DE DaQuan Bowers, Clemson

6) 49ers - QB Ryan Mallett, Arkansas

7) Cowboys – CB Prince Amukamara, Nebraska

8) Texans – DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama

9) Lions – DE Robert Quinn, North Carolina

10) Browns - WR Julio Jones, Alabama

11) Seahawks – QB Cam Newton, Auburn

12) Titans – DT Stephen Pea, Oregon State

13) Redskins - WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma St

14) Vikings – QB Jake Locker, Washington

15) Patriots (from Raiders) – CB Janoris Jenkins, Florida

16) Dolphins - RB Mark Ingram, Alabama

Champ Bailey is not going to be back in Denver.  He also recently told ESPN that he wanted to switch positions to Safety to prolong his career.  I could see him making a pretty good Safety.  He's not a bad tackler and playing the Center Field position (and covering guys in the slot) would be good for his skill set.  I could see him having an Ed Reed type of impact, at least for 2-3 seasons.

Obviously, we need a starting safety, maybe two.  Having him back there would immediately make the secondary stronger and guys like Jenkins and Newman probably wouldnt give up as many plays with a ballhawk back there like Champ.  He certainly wouldnt take the terrible angles Ball does to get to a receiver.

We wont come cheap, I know.  However, if I were running this team there are a lot of guys I would be giving their walking papers and saving some money.  Columbo, Bigg, Barber, maybe Brooking, maybe Roy Williams, etc.  I think Jerry will be a rather big player in the Free Agent market this year.  I see one big signing on each side of the ball.

Not a lot went right for the Cowboys last week as it relates to their draft position.  However, they only dropped to the eighth position.  They should destroy Arizona on Christmas night, so I’m still expecting to draft around the 11th or 12th position.

Where We’ll Draft – If the season ended today, Dallas would draft 8th, according to WalterFootball.com.  This would still be ok, but I really hope we don’t drop any further.  Here are the records of the teams vying for a top 10 pick:

Carolina: 2 - 12              Remaining schedule – @ Pitt, @ Atl        Predicted Record:  2-14

Denver: 3 – 11               Remaining schedule – vs Hou, vs SD       Predicted Record:  3-13

Cincinnati: 3 – 11           Remaining schedule – vs SD, @ Balt       Predicted Record:  3-13

Arizona: 4 – 10              Remaining schedule – vs Dall, @ SF       Predicted Record:  4-12

Detroit: 4 – 10                Remaining schedule – @ Mia, vs Minn     Predicted Record:  4-12

Buffalo: 4 – 10               Remaining schedule – vs NE, @ NYJ      Predicted Record:  4-12

San Francisco: 5 – 9      Remaining schedule – @ StL, vs Ariz      Predicted Record:  6-10

Dallas: 5 - 9                   Remaining schedule – @ Ariz, @ Phil     Predicted Record:  6-10

Washington 5 – 9           Remaining schedule – @ Jax, vs NYG     Predicted Record:  5-11

Houston: 5 – 9               Remaining schedule – @ Den, vs Jax      Predicted Record:  6-10

Minnesota: 5 – 9            Remaining schedule – @ Phil, @ Det      Predicted Record:  6-10

Cleveland: 5 – 9             Remaining schedule – vs Balt, vs Pitt      Predicted Record:  5-11

Seattle: 6 – 8                 Remaining schedule – @ TB, vs StL        Predicted Record:  6-10

Tennessee: 6 – 8           Remaining schedule – @ KC, @ Indy      Predicted Record:  6-10

St Louis: 6 – 8               Remaining schedule – vs SF, @ Sea       Predicted Record:  8-8

Oakland: 7 – 7 (to NE)    Remaining schedule – vs Indy, @ KC      Predicted Record:  7-9

Miami: 7 – 7                  Remaining schedule – vs Det, @ NE       Predicted Record:  8-8

Games this week that could assist in Dallas’s draft position:

Hou @ Den – Need Houston win

Det @ Mia – Need Detroit win (but a Miami win ensures they finish ahead of Dallas)

NE @ Buff – Need Buffalo win

Dall @ Ariz – (Always hate to say this out loud) Need a Dallas loss.

SF @ StL – Need a SF win

Tenn @ KC – Need a Tenn win

Wash @ Jax – Need a Wash win

Minn @ Phil – Need a Minny win

Balt @ Cle – Need a Cle win

Sea @ TB – Need a Sea win

Indy @ Oak – Need an Oak win

Let's hope at least 4 of these happen.

As I’ve mentioned, I’m predicting we draft around 11th.  Not bad, but probably out of range for one of the elite prospects.  There seem to be 6 - 8 prospects with “Top 5” talent in an average year.  So, it's top heavy.

Here’s my analysis on the elite prospects:

QB (3) – Andrew Luck, Stanford; Ryan Mallett, Arkansas; Cam Newton, Auburn.  Some might disagree, but Jake Locker doesn’t seem elite to me.  For those that hate on Newton, swap out Locker.

HB – None.

WR (2) – AJ Green, Georgia; Julio Jones, Alabama

OL – None.

DL (3) – Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson; Nick Fairley, Auburn; Marcell Dareus, Alabama;

LB (1) – Robert Quinn (DE/OLB), North Carolina;

DB (2) – Patrick Peterson, LSU; Prince Amukamara, Nebraska;

Just outside:  WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State; DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa; OLB Akeen Ayers, UCLA; RB Mark Ingram, Alabama; DE/OLB Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue; DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State, OLB Von Miller, Tx A&M; CB Janoris Jenkins, Florida; and maybe DE Cameron Jordan, Cal.

Here are some of the “expert” drafts I found posted recently:

Source                         Date Updated               Draft Pos          Player

WalterFootball               12/23                            1.8                    CB Prince Amukamara, Neb

WalterFootball               12/23                            2.39                  FS Rahim Moore, UCLA

WalterFootball               12/23                            2.76                  DT/DE Christian Ballard, Iowa

NewNFLDraft.com          12/20                            1.7                  CB Janoris Jenkins, Florida

NewNFLDraft.com          12/20                            2.38                  DE Greg Romeus, Pitt

NewNFLDraft.com          12/20                            3.71                   G Justin Boren, Ohio St

New NFL Draft.com        12/20                            4.103                SS Jeron Johnson, Boise St

New NFL Draft.com        12/20                            5.131                ILB Kelvin Sheppard, LSU

DraftAce.com                 12/16                            1.7                    DE Cameron Jordan, California

Sports Fantasy Guide    12/15                            1.7                    DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa

Draft King                       12/12                            1.8                    CB Prince Amukamara, Nebr

Footballs Future             12/19                            1.7                    DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama

These are interesting, if nothing else.  But let’s take a look at who was picked (or in some cases, who was available) with the 11th pick, assuming that’s a more realistic pick for the Cowboys:

Source                         Date Updated               Draft Pos          Player

WalterFootball               12/23                            1.15                  DE/OLB Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue

NewNFLDraft.com          12/20                            1.13                  DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama

DraftAce.com                12/16                            1.14                  DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama

Sports Fantasy Guide     12/15                            1.14                  DE Allen Bailey, Miami

Draft King                     12/12                            1.13                  OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA

Footballs Future            12/19                            1.12                  DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa

The mock draft I pay most attention to is from WalterFootball.  Their projections and write-ups are excellent.  I really loved their first two picks for Dallas in CB Prince Amukamara and FS Rahim Moore.  Yes, I know that wouldn’t address the Offensive Line, but I think it would do a long way in shoring up the Defense.  When you look at Dallas’s rankings, it’s the Defense that’s been killing them.

If Amukamara is there, I wouldn’t even consider trading back.  I would already have the card filled out a few slots before we drafted.  However, if he is gone, I am warming up to the idea of moving back a little and picking up a pick or two.  There are several mid-first round type O Linemen.  And if we could get either FS Rahim Moore or FS Deunta Williams in the second round, I think it might be worth it.  Here’s one possible scenario:

Dallas trades their 11th pick and 5th round pick to a team wanting to move up for a QB or WR for a mid-1st rounder and 2nd rounder.  Then in the first two rounds we would have roughly:

1.17  OT Derek Sherrod, Miss St

2.41  FS Rahim Moore, UCLA

2.48  CB Curtis Brown, Texas (or C Kris O’Dowd, USC)

That doesn’t look so bad either.  Ok, your turn.  Would love to hear some interesting theories from you guys.  Go …

I'm an admitted Draft Dork.  Prefer the term Draftnik, but not sure it’s as descriptive or appropriate.  Anyway, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at where the Cowboys could potentially draft by week and who could be there.  Hopefully, we will get some good discussion and participation.

Continue reading this post »

I'm always looking ahead to the draft.  Even when the team is good.  But this year with our dreams of a home Super Bowl dashed, I'm even more interested than usual in the kids coming out of college.  I was doing a projection of who we could take and where we could pick, when the following projection presented itself.

First off, in my mind, the crop of players who look (at this point, at least) to be Top 10 pick material are as follows:

QB Andrew Luck

QB Ryan Mallett

WR AJ Green

WR Julio Jones

WR Justin Blackmon

DE Da'Quan Bowers

DE Robert Quinn

DE Adrian Clayborn

DT Nick Fairley

DT Marcell Dareus

CB Patrick Peterson

CB Prince Amukamara

Just my opinion, but these seem to be the only guys to me worthy of a top 10 pick in the NFL draft.  So, the next task I took on was determining where I felt the NFL teams would wind up with regards to picks.  I'm not using the current records, but where I think they will finish.  Here's what I cam up with:

1 Carolina (they are awful, with little hope of winning another game)

2 Detroit (not a terrible team, but Stafford's out and they are still trying to find themselves)

3 Arizona (a worse team than Detroit, but will get another win or two based on their poor division)

4 Cincy (this team should be better based on their talent, but they play with no heart)

5 Buffalo (they are coming on, and will win some games down the stretch)

6 Denver (never know what to expect with these guys week to week, but its bad more often than not)

7 San Francisco (have some nice pieces in place, but no consistency)

8 Dallas (here we find our Cowboys.  I think we win a few more, keeping us out of the top 5 picks)

9 Cleveland (improving)

10 Minnesota (folding, but enough talent to beat up on some dogs)

So, here we are sitting at the 8th pick.  Not bad.  Not a franchise player most likely, but should be a nice pick.  Let's see how it falls:

1 Carolina - QB Andrew Luck (No brainer.  One of the top QB prospects in years.)

2 Detroint - DE Da'Quan Bowers (Could go with Peterson here, but he makes their DLine as feared as last year's Vikings.)

3 Arizona - QB Ryan Mallett (Probably not worth a top 3 pick, but they don't have a choice.  It's a QB league and they don't have one.)

4 Cincy - DE Marcell Dareus (He could be special, and they are in need of some help on their DLine.)

5 Buffalo - CB Patrick Peterson (They take the BPA, and one of the best prospects in the draft.)

6 Denver - DT Nick Fairley (Being compared to Suh, he's exploded this season to warrant this pick.)

7 San Francisco - CB Prince Amukamara (Excellent prospect.  Not as flashy as Peterson, but has a lower bust potential.)

8 Dallas - ....

Wow, worst case scenario (but most likely) in my opinion.  The guys I would want here are all gone.  The three best players might be the three WRs in Green, Jones and Blackmon.  But Dallas doesnt need a WR.  Quinn and Clayborn are options, but not ones I'm all that excited about.  I guess there is always the option of trading down, but that's not the sexy splash Jerry would be looking for either.

Quinn is more of an OLB, which I dont want to spend another high pick on.  Clayborn could possibly play the 3-4 DE, but will he be any better than Marcus Spears has been?  Has Spears (a top 20 overall pick) even been any better than Hatcher (a 3rd rounder) or Bowen (undrafted)?  I say no.  So that pick doesnt excite me either.

There's not an O Lineman worth this pick.  Same can be said for a Safety or Corner.  So .... junior Jerry's of the world ... what would you do?

I saw the following article on PFT regarding Jared Gaither:

Jared Gaither may be running out time Posted by Gregg Rosenthal on October 1, 2010 1:53 PM ET It sounds like Ravens coach John Harbaugh has grown weary of starting tackle Jared Gaither.

Previously criticized for his work ethic, Gaither has barely practiced all year because of a mysterious back injury.  He's been the subject of trade rumors, but hasn't stepped on the field enough for anyone to want him.

Gaither practiced Wednesday, then aggravated his back.  He's going to see another specialist.  At some point, the Ravens may just choose to end Gaither's season.  Ravens doctors can't determine the problem.

"Obviously the clock is ticking on something like that," coach John Harbaugh said. "His injury's been a mystery. It's been almost 2 weeks since Dr. Watkins in LA said would be the outside limit."

If Baltimore's offensive line was playing better this season, the Ravens may have already given up waiting for Gaither to return.

 Is it time to offer a 4th round pick for this guy?  They previosly wanted a 1 or a 2.  If he's in the doghouse, maybe we can get him on the cheap and motivate him.  He's only 24 years old and has a ton of talent.  Colombo, on the other hand, is 32 and is wearing down.  I think it's worth some consideration.  Even if he doesnt pan out, he would be well worth the risk of a 4th rounder.  I would even make it conditional where it could grow to a 3rd.  His upside is big.

I've already booked my airfare and bought my game tickets to the Hall of Fame game.  I want to be able to tell my son I saw the first professional game of future Hall of Famer Dez Bryant.  Any news on when the Cowboys will start signing their draft picks?  I saw an article the other day saying more than half of the picks have already signed, but Dallas hasnt even started.  I know they usually start late, but considering their camp is the first to open and we are less than 2 weeks away I am starting to get a little nervous.

Personally, I have a lot of confidence in the Cowboys this year.  I feel pretty good about the Offensive Line.  I've reviewed Doug Free's effort at Right Tackle this year and I believe the team when they say he will make a solid Left Tackle.  Heck, he's going up againt Ware and Spencer in practice everyday.  If that doesnt make you better and expose your weaknesses, I dont know what will.  I also think Ball can play FS.  He wont make the Pro Bowl, but he can hold down the position for a year or two until we can get a stud in there.  If he's the weak link of our Defense, I think we'll be fine.

However, I cannot tell you how worried I am about the Kicker position.  I just dont have faith in David Beuhler.  If he wasnt even the best kicker on his college team, I dont see him as an elite NFL Kicker.  And I certainly dont think Chris Boniol is going to change that.  Now we've released his only competition.  I see this as a huge problem.

So how about we bring back the Michael Irvin reality show 4th and Long for Kickers?  They are not taping a show this season, but this competition makes more sense to me.  Seems like there would be a lot of untapped potential for kickers.  Open it up for potential kickers all around the world.  Bring in soccer players, and rugby guys and whatever else they can find under any rock possible.  The next Vinatieri or Stenarud is out there just waiting to be discovered.

The Chargers just released NT Ian Scott.  Might this be someone the Cowboys should take a look at to back-up Jay Ratliff?

Scott is the same age as Ratliff (will be 29 this season) and goes 6-2, 305.  That makes him about 2 inches shorter, but about 10 lbs heavier than Rat.  Not the ideal sized NT, but a good size for a Phillips 3-4 NT.  Scott got 7 starts last season after Jamal Williams went down, and was projected to start this season before the draft.  SD drafted Cam Thomas in the 5th round and I guess he made Scott expendable.  They also have some guy named Ogemdi Nwagbou who took about the same number of snaps as Scott last year (althout Scott performed much better.)

In his career, Scott has 3 sacks and 83 tackles in 40 starts.  Not great numbers, but should be able to unseat Siavii.  According to ProFootballFocus, Scott ranked 45th out of 87 NTs playing 25% of his teams snaps.  His performance ranked below Siavii's but on twice as many snaps.

Anyway, just a thought.  I've never been sold on Siavii.  And considering the guy will be 32 this year, a younger option might be worth a look.

Mosely claims to have successfully predicted that last 7 Dallas first picks (not sure how that's possibly with all the trade downs last year) by giving three options.  Yesterday on the Galloway show on local ESPN radio he gave his three choices for this year.

FS Nate Allen, South Florida

OT Bruce Campbell, Maryland

CB Devin McCourty, Rutgers

I guess I cant say I'm surprised at these options, although I dont think I've seen McCourty to Dallas in too many mocks.  Seems to me Allen could be had ten picks later, if he was our top target.  I see him go to Dallas in some mocks, but if he gets by us, no one threatens to take him until Cleveland (#38) or Seattle (#40) at the earliest.  If we take him at 27, it will be a wasted pick.  We could easily trade back to one of those slots and acquire an additional pick and still get our man.  I would be disappoined with Allen at 27.  But not at 38th, and getting an extra 3rd.

I can see McCourty in the first round.  Matter of fact, in my mock, I have him going 30th to Minnesota.  Doesnt seem like much of a reach as he is clearly the #3 CB in this draft.  But is a 4th CB our top need?  I could see taking Haden if he falls (not likely) or maybe even Wilson.  Most everything I read about McCourty says he projects to a solid nickle corner.  If I'm taking a corner in the first, he needs to project to a starter.

Of this group the guy I like is Bruce Campbell.  Not the top ranked OT prospect, but with all the intangibles (many say one of the most athletic OL to come out in the last decade) I would love to give Hudson Houck the chance to work with this kid and see if he can be a franchise Left Tackle.  He's a physical freak.  Does he have a high bust potential?  Maybe.  I'd call it medium.  Does he have the potential to be a star LT?  Absolutely.

This article appeared in the Miami Herald within the last few days.  It speculated that Atogwe could become a free agent on June 1st.  The theory is that the Rams are hoping that someone will sign him to a reasonable offer sheet that they can match.  If they don't they will have to pay him near $7M for one season, which they dont want to do.  Apparently, other teams have caught on to this, and are waiting it out. 

This would make sense as to why they put such a low tender on him, which didnt make a lot of sense at first.  It also might have been one of the potnetial "opportunities later in Free Agency" that Jerry has referenced.  I'm on record saying if we got him and no one else, I would be happy with our free agency.  If Dallas doesnt get a free safety in the draft, I would expect us to go after him hard.  This gives us some more options and flexibility.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/rollout/2010/03/do-you-like-safety-oj-atogwe-get-in-line-and-wait-until-june-1.html

Do you like Safety O.J. Atogwe? Get in line. And wait until June 1.

A month after the start of free agency, the Dolphins and several other NFL teams have yet to address a glaring need at free safety. Oh, sure, Miami tried. But Ryan Clark re-signed with Pittsburgh, leaving this team with the same question as the rest.

Why not O.J. Atogwe?

Atogwe, as you already know, is a restricted free agent tendered by the Rams at the lowest possible level. He's a solid player, and he wouldn't even require any draft-pick compensation like other expensive RFAs, such as Indianapiolis’ Antoine Bethea.

Yet for whatever reason, teams like Miami are avoiding him as if he’s got a case of the Swine Flu and a Staph Infection all at the same time. That reason, as apparently needs to be reminded to many Dolphins fans still clamoring for Atogwe, is a bit complicated.

The short version can be summed up with a one-sentence quote from one of my league sources: “Many teams know that his (Right of First Refusal) is likely to go away on June 1, so some teams have said they don’t want to do a deal that Rams would match.”

Basically, Atogwe has the potential to become an unrestricted free agent on June 1.

Now, for the more in-depth explanation: The Rams are currently trying to reach a long-term deal with Atogwe. Those negotiations aren’t likely to intensify until sometime between April 15 (the deadline for teams to submit offer sheets on restricted free agents) and May 31 (the last day for teams with RFAs to offer acceptable tenders).

But there’s a catch. If the Rams can’t reach a long-term deal, and they want to keep Atogwe, they’ll have to give him an acceptable tender that pays him 110 percent of his 2009 salary with all of the same conditions as the previous contract.

Since he had a $6.3 million guaranteed salary last season, that means the Rams would once again need to guarantee him $6.93 million – an excessive cost that can be avoided by a long-term deal.

So when April 15 hits, the pressure will be on the Rams to reach a new deal within 45 days or else Atogwe will become an unrestricted free agent, able to sign with any other NFL team, including the Dolphins.

For that reason, no teams are interested in providing Atogwe with an offer sheet, since that would allow the Rams to simply end their need to negotiate with Atogwe because they could simply impose their right of first refusal and match that offer.

Instead, teams can force the Rams’ hand by making them pony up an acceptable long-term deal or suffer the potential consequences.

From my perspective, I would imagine Atogwe would be very reluctant to finish a deal with the Rams, especially since he maintains a considerable amount of leverage in the current situation.

His options, at this point, seem pretty good. He can (a) Wait to see if the Rams fold and decide to pay him a healthy $6.93 next season, or (b) Test free agency and force the Rams into a bidding war over his services with other teams.

Of course, there is one risk. If many teams, including the Rams, are able to address their need for a free safety during the draft, Atogwe’s leverage could become diluted. So expect some talks to heat up between April 15 and April 22.

If nothing gets done during those dates, expect Atogwe to become a hot name for any remaining teams still looking for an answer at the position.

[UPDATE: In reference to the possibility of a team applying a poison pill to obtain Atogwe's services, I was given this explanation from a source: "No team will say it, but it appears that a poison pill is something that teams aren't willing to do.  I believe that's one of the things the owners want to eliminate in a new CBA, so I think there's real reluctance to go "outside the box" on this issue. I'm not saying no one will do it, but it doesn't appear likely right now."]  

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Ironically enough, there are exactly 27 players in the 2010 NFL Draft that, to me, have value to the Cowboys in the first round.

Some have value as a player on this team and some (Sam Bradford, for example) have value in trade with other teams.  There are other players (such as Ryan Matthews) who I think could be first round picks, but dont hold a lot of value to Dallas.  Here's my list:

S Eric Berry - The player Dallas could most benefit from in adding to their current roster.

OT Russell Okung - Frachise Left Tackle.

OT Bryan Bulaga - Not far behind Okung in talent.

DT Ndomakong Suh - Most talented player in the draft.  Could play anywhere along the DLine.

DT Gerald McCoy - Like Suh, he would make out DLine unstoppable.  Perfect NT in our scheme.

S Earl Thomas - A playmaking Safety like Thomas is just what this Defense needs to become elite.

OT Trent Williams - Many think he's more of a Right Tackle, but either way he looks like a NFL Pro Bowler.

CB Joe Haden - Having four really good CBs would be a nice problem to have.

QB Sam Bradford - Not a player Dallas would draft, but possibly has the most value in the entire draft.

OG Mike Iupati - A mauler at Guard.  Looks like a guy who see at least 5 trips to Hawaii in his career.

OT Anthony Davis - Has some off field problems that could cause him to slip.  Probably not to #27, but stanger things have happened.

WR Dez Bryant - This is the only WR I would even consider in the 1st round.  Compares to Andre Johnson as a WR and a dynamic return man.

ILB Rolando McClain - A special inside linebacker.  Could learn for a year behind Brooking and then take over for the next 8 years.

NT Dan Williams - Nose Tackles are hard to find.  This is the best one available this year and he's a good one.  Could spell Ratliff, or move him to End in certain situations.

OT Bruce Campbell - This big dude is one of the most athletic players in the draft.  He's not even come close to his potential which is at the same time exciting and scary.  I would take him in a nano-second if he's available at #27.

C Maurkice Pouncey - Center is not a sexy position, but this is one of the top 3 Centers to come along in a decade.

OLB Jason Paul-Pierre - Looks like a crazy good pass rusher.  I've seem him compared to DeMarcus Ware before.  Not sure where we would play him, but you can never have too many pass rushers.

RB CJ Spiller - RB is not a position of great need for Dallas, but he's also a great return guy.  He's a playmaker.  If I couldnt trade the pick for value, I would just keep CJ as our RBs are brittle.

QB Jimmy Clausen - Someone will want this guy in the first round.  If he's available and Dallas is on the clock, you can be sure we would take calls and probably end up with a 2010 2nd rounder and 2011 1st rounder for our troubles.

CB Kyle Wilson - His value might be closer to 30th, but he's the only other solid first round Corner in the draft outside Haden.  I would be happy if he ended up in Dallas.  Cornerback would be set for years.

DE Derrick Morgan - At 6-4, 272 I think he's best suited as a 4-3 End.  However, he is a top 20 talent.  We could find a use for him if he's available at #27.

OLB Brandon Graham - Could make a scary 3-4 OLB in my opinion.  Again, we're set at that position, but if he's the BPA, I wouldnt mind stockpiling edge rushers.

OLB Sergio Kindle - Similar to Graham in ability, but 35 lbs lighter.  Obviously he's quicker, but not quite as powerful.

DE Jared Odrick - A prototypical 3-4 DE, especially in the Phillips 3-4.  These guys are not easy to find, so I would be happy with him on draft day.

ILB Sean Weatherspoon - A solid, solid ILB prospect.  Probably wont ever be an All-Pro, but a guy you can count on to get 100+ tackles for 8+ years.

DT/DE Brian Price - at 6-2, 300 lbs, he could probably play anywhere along the Dallas D Line.  Might need a year to groom, but then should be a good-to-great contributor.

DE Carlos Dunlap - Reminds me a lot of Chris Canty, who was a good player for us.  After a year of grooming, would be an upgrade to Spears.

Players not worthy of Dallas's first round pick

S Taylor Mays - This kid is so freaking athletic its scary.  He's an amazing athelete, but an average football player.  We dont need another Roy Williams clone who can knock your head off, but cant cover.  With all the passing in today's game, Safeties have to cover a large majority of the time.  He's a liability in that aspect.

NT Terrence Cody - I would love to have a big bodied NT to back up Rat and allow him to move to End at times, but there is just too much risk in Cody.  He doesnt do much besides clog the lanes and his weight is an issue, although I know he just lost 20 lbs or so.  If Dallas traded back into the top of the 2nd round and took Cody with their first pick, I would be ok with that.  As long as they get another pick to offset the risk.

CB Devin McCourtey - He's getting some first round love in mocks, but only because CB is a position of need for many teams and the top end talent at that position is thin.

OT Charles Brown - First off, he doesnt seem like the type of huge OLineman Dallas likes (although he has been inching closer to 300 lbs as the draft gets nearer.)  He's more of a technician, which is not our pattern.  Secondly, I feel this is another situation where teams might reach for him in the first.  If that happens, it shouldnt be Dallas.

DE/OLB Everson Griffen - He has great size and comes from a top program, but he's just soft and inconsistent.  I think he falls into the mid-2nd or later.

TE Jermaine Gresham - I thought he was one of the most dominant college TEs I've ever seen.  But I was disappointed in his 40 time and think he might fall due to that.  We dont need another TE and I dont see him as someone teams will trade up to get, especially with Gronkowski and Hernandez sitting there in the 2nd round.

RB Ryan Mathews - I think he could be a first rounder.  I also think he could be the most productive RB from this class.  But I dont see the value for Dallas.  He doesnt have the return abilities of a Spiller, and therefore I dont see Dallas carrying 4 RBs into game day.  We would have to move a back before he made sense in the first.

WR DeMaryius Thomas - This is the 2nd best WR in this draft, but he's not a value in the first for Dallas.  Not a polished receiver since he came from an option Offense and hasnt run a full route tree.  Plus, for Dallas to see value in a WR, he needs to be a great return guy.

FS Nate Allen - I like Allen a lot, but he's just not a first round guy.  If Dallas wanted to trade back to the top-to-middle part of the 2nd and take him with our first pick, I would be elated.  We pick up another high selection and still get our playmaking Safety.  But using our first rounder on him would be leaving money on the table.

WR Golden Tate - He will be a slot receiver in the NFL unless he goes to a team who needs him to start because of a lack of talent.  He's an electrifying player in the open field on receptions and returns, but he's probably not an ideal every down player.  He didnt put up the jaw dropping speed at the combine that could have vaulted him into the first round.  He's an early-to-mid 2nd round guy and shouldnt be considered earlier.

Alright, so I've put myself out there.  What say you?

SD Chargers Special Teamer Kassim Osgood has tweeted that Jamal Williams has been cut by the Chargers.  If true, do the Cowboys have interest?  Williams is a Wade Phillips guy playing for him in San Diego.  Wade was his coordinator in 2005 and 2006 when he was an All-Pro.  This does make some sense.

Williams is coming off major surgery after he played just one game last year, but should be fully recovered.  I can certainly see a scenario in which Williams plays 20 snaps as Ratliff's back-up.  Or packages where Williams is on the nose and Ratliff and Olshansky are the Ends.  Or maybe my favorite - a 4 man front with Williams taking two blockers on the Nose, Rat as the under tackle and two ends flanking them.  Sure would be nice to have Ratliff playing one other blocker as opposed to two.

And I doubt Williams would be all that expensive.  Even if Dallas makes a play for a big time free agent (I prefer Antrel Rolle) Williams might accept a 3 year - $15M deal, which falls under the low-end free agent signee (Dallas can sign unlimited at this level) as long as he agrees to a structure of Yr 1-$3.8M, Yr 2-$4.9M, Yr 3-$6.4.

Thoughts?

In 2009, Miles Austin came from relatively nowhere to be the breakout performer for the Cowboys, the NFC East, and maybe even the entire NFL.  I know a few guys around this site and others had high hopes for him, but no one expected this.  In three years with the Cowboys Austin had racked up 18 catches for 354 yards and 3 TDs prior to 2009.  He started the season as the 3rd or 4th option until he got a start in game 5.  By season's end he had amassed 81 catches for 1320 yards and 11 TDs and was on his way to his first Pro Bowl.  No question a breakout performer.

Ok, so here is the question:  Who will be the Cowboys 2010 Breakout Performer?

I'll provide some options and I'm looking for two things from you.  1) Who do you think will be the breakout performer?; and 2) Who would be the most beneficial breakout performer?  For instance, you might think Doug Free is the most likely guy, but maybe a breakout by Jason Williams would ultimately help the team the most.  If that case, your answer would look like this:  Free/J Williams, and then feel free to comment.

Also, let me define "breakout performer."  This will typically be a younger guy who hasnt had his opportunity to shine yet, or just hasnt seized that opportunity.  This opportunity might come from someone else's injury (like happened with Miles) or someone else's lack of productivity (like happened a few year ago with Romo.)  I dont want to include rookies we might draft or free agents we might sign.

And the nominees are ...

QB McGee - Oh man, I shutter even writing this.  I mean, it would be wonderful to find our QB of the future in this guy, but can you think of all the bad that would need to happen for us to get to him?  Let's just move on.

HB Choice - All it would take would be an injury to either Felix or Barber (who guys with an injury history) and Choice would get significant playing time.  It's also possibly someone could be foolish enough to trade for Barber, but I dont expect that would happen.  I think most of us think he has the ability to be something special given the opportunity.  But what's the cost of that opportunity?  (ps, I considered putting Felix here in the sense that a 1500 yard/12 TD season would be a breakout over what we are expecting.  But he's a very high profile guy and a starter in 2010, so I'm leaving him off.)

WR Ogletree - Showed real promise this season.  Good speed, good size, good routes, good hands.  They loved him running the bubble screen last year.  Much more production than Miles Austin's first two years.  Could we be looking at a starting pair of receivers in Austin and Ogletree in the near future?

TE Bennett - In a two TE set, it really wouldnt require an injury for a breakout season from a Dallas TE.   I think many of us would have voted for Martellus as being the most likely guy last season.  Now I'm not even sure he's the most likely TE on the team to breakout.  I still think he's got he ability.

TE Phillips - Plays a lot like Witten, in my opinion.  Not flashy and doesnt have near the athletic ability of a Bennett, but gives 100% effort and does everything asked of him.  Could even find a home at FB next season.

OT Free - Easily the most likely candidate, especially if he can find a spot in the starting rotation.  Will have to beat out Flo or Colombo in camp for that to happen.  Looks to be the future at one of the tackle positions.

OL Brewster - I dont have a lot of faith in this guy, personally.  He came from a spread offense and needed a lot of work even before he missed last year with an injury.  Could play RT or either Guard position.  But if he can play, it would be huge for this offensive line.

DE Bowen - Not as young as the others on this list, but still hasnt had the opportunity to breakout yet.  He gets time in the 4 man front on passing downs and gets some push.  An injury or demotion could allow him to play everydown and show something.

DE Hatcher - See Bowen.  He's definitely below Bowen in the pecking order, so he's the longer shot.

OLB Butler - Showed some promise last year the few times he got into the game.  We need someone to adequately back-up Ware and Spencer, although the thought of needing him for a prolonged period of time scares me as much as the back-up Quarterback position.  But this Defense is based on pressure, so someone has to be able to get to the QB besides Ware, Spencer and Rat.

OLB B Williams - See Butler.  Was injured last season, but in camp he got more press than Butler.  Could end up being a pass rush specialist.

ILB J Williams - Was our highest draft pick last year, but didnt get much playing time.  Seems the team was hoping he could be the 3rd down coverage LB we lost in Kevin Burnett.  He was injured, so I'll give him a break, but its not looking great for him.

ILB Hodge - Was injured all of last season, but was also a candidate for that 3rd down coverage LB.  Also thought to be an excellent special teams player.  I dont think he projets to an every down linebacker, but he could surprise us.

CB Scandrick - We've seen him play quite a bit, but the jury is still out regarding him as a starter one day.  Last year he wasnt as good as the previous year.  And that's been highlighted by the meteoric rise of Jenkins.  He's not close at all to challenging Newman's job as some Newman detractors like to think.

S M Hamlin - I'm not sure anyone knows what this guy's got.  Was though of very highly before his injury, but didnt do much during the season.  He is another guy who could surprise us and could turn a weakness into a strength.

Did I forget anyone?

As you're probably aware, this offseason will be different from previous offseasons due to the looming uncapped year.  And because Dallas made it into the "Final Eight Tournament" (as Wade would say) it’s even more restrictive to the Cowboys.  Let's take a look at the Cowboys’ Free Agents, who might be available, and whom the Cowboys could target.

First off, here is the list of Unrestricted and Restricted Free Agents from the Cowboys:

• OG Montrae Holland (UFA), WR Miles Austin (RFA), S Gerald Sensabaugh (RFA), DE Marcus Spears (RFA), DE Jason Hatcher (RFA), WR Sam Hurd (RFA), S Pat Watkins (RFA), OT Pat McQuistan (RFA), C/OG Cory Proctor (RFA), NT Junior Siavii (RFA), C Duke Preston (RFA), K Shaun Suisham (RFA), and CB Cletis Gordan (RFA.)

As you can see, only Holland is unrestricted, and he’s not a big concern.  I will assume Austin, Sensabaugh and two of the Defensive Linemen (Spears, Bowen and Hatcher) get re-signed.

So, let’s consider which positions Dallas might want to upgrade.  On offense, we must first considered the Offensive Line.  I think most of us agree this is a position of concern, especially for the future.  There were a few interesting names on the Unrestricted Free Agent list: Chad Clifton, Stephen Neal, Kevin Mawae, etc., but these guys are all older.  The problem with our line is not really talent, its age.  This needs to be something addressed in the draft.  Our starters for 2010 are set.  Let's move on.  The only other position on Offense I considered was WR.  But we all know that Jerry is not doing anything with Roy Williams this year and Crayton and Ogletree are nice slot guys.  I think we're set there. 

Now let’s look at the defensive side of the ball.  Let’s start with the D Line, where I think we will be short a man.  I don’t see all three Free Agents getting re-signed.  Bowen might be the priority and Spears and Hatcher could use an upgrade.  In looking at the DTs/NTs and DEs available, there is a wealth!  Here's the list I saw:

·    DT/NT: Vince Wilfork, Aubrayo Franklin, Ryan Pickett, Casey Hampton, Cory Redding, Tank Johnson, Fred Robbins, Jason Ferguson,  Justin Bannan, Hollis Thomas, and Kendrick Clancy.

·    DE:  Julius Peppers, Richard Seymour, Aaron Kampman, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Adewale Ogunleye, Jarvis Green, Jason Taylor, James Hall, Tyler Brayton, Vonnie Holliday, Dwan Edwards, and Reggie Hayward.  

I'll get back to an analysis of these guys later.  Let's see what else is out there.  I considered ILB briefly, but quickly dismissed it.  Brooking and James played excellent last year and we need to develop guys like Jason Williams and Stephen Hodge here.  Cornerback could use a slight upgrade, but not at one of the first three spots.  Anything here will need to come in the draft and be youthful.  Safety is another position I could see Dallas considering in Free Agency.  Sensabaugh is a RFA and should probably be resigned.  Hamlin didn’t play all that well last year and could be a salary dump.  Unfortunately, there is not much there.  The list of UFAs at Safety is as follows:

·    Safeties: Darren Sharper, Sean Jones, Jermaine Phillips, Roy Williams, Will Allen, Mike Brown, Ryan Clark, and Mark Roman.

You might be thinking Free Agency would be a good place to look for a kicker.  I wouldn’t disagree with that.  And there are some very good kickers available.

·    Kickers:  Sebastian Janikowski, Matt Stover, Shayne Graham, Neil Rackers, Jeff Reed, Olindo Mare, Jay Feely, Jason Elam, John Carney, and Shaun Suisham.

Dallas will only be allowed to sign one Free Agent to a contract with a first year salary around $5.5M.  They can sign as many Free Agents as they can handle at $3.7M or less.  So, here's my recommendation.  I think Dallas should go after a free agent on the DLine with their one large contract.  The only three guys on the DL list that seem well out of our range would be Peppers, Wilfork, and Seymour.  The rest of those guys seem like they might accept a contract in the $5.5M range.  

The guy I like the best here is Aubrayo Franklin.  He's played really well as a 3-4 NT the last few years in San Francisco.  He's 29 years old, 6-1, 320 lbs.  Last year he had 2 sacks with 35 tackles, 3 passes batted down at the line and an interception.  The 35 tackles ranked 7th for a Defensive Tackle and 2nd for a Nose Tackle.  He could spell Ratliff and even allow him to play End some.  He would be a great addition to the line and could keep our starters fresh.  You also wouldn’t feel like you were losing anything by spelling Ratliff like we did with Siavii.  A 3 years contract seems about right.

I would also consider Casey Hampton.  Obviously, he's well past his prime.  However, in the case for Hampton, you would only ask him to back up Ratliff.  Instead of the back-up playing 150 snaps like Siavii did, he could play around 250 and keep Ratliff fresh.  We could also play some 4-3 goaline situations with both NTs on the field at the same time.  I wouldn’t oppose a 1-2 year deal with Hampton.  He might be the most decorated NT of his generation.

Kicker is another area in which I could see a signing.  The prize of this group is Janikowski who had a great season in 2009.  He's a bit of a head case, and I would be surprised if he's not re-signed in Oakland, but he would be worth a look.  The rest of these guys would probably have to win a job in camp.  Rackers, Graham, even Suisham have had their good and bad seasons.  Most of these guys are ancient like Carney (45), Stover (41), and Elam (39.)  Suisham is the only guy under 30.  We might not want to admit it, but Suisham might be our best option again in 2010.

Jason La Canfora of the NFL Network is claiming that the Steelers might cut or trade NT Casey Hampton.  He has been wanting a contract extention this offseason.  The Steelers extended DE Brett Kiesel, but not Hampton.  Indications are that they have no intention of doing so.  Typically the Steelers let these guys play out their current agreement and then let them walk, but a trade makes some sense too as they are trying to dump salary.  So, the obvious question is, should Dallas be interested?

Hampton is a 4 time Pro Bowler, but turns 32 on Wednesday.  He's in the last year of his contract making around $3M, so not bad.  He's a 6-1, 320 lb run stuffer.  Not much pass rush (5.5 career sacks) but holds up well at the point of attack.  He's been pretty durable averaging over 14 games the last 4 seasons and not missing a playoff game.

Personally, I think this could be exactly what we are looking for.  He can take some plays from Jay Ratliff, and even allow Rat to play at End some for Spears who rarely impresses.  If Hampton plays well, we can extend him 2-3 years and possibly even consider moving Ratliff to End fulltime once we dont re-sign Spears next season.  I know many of you are not a fan of putting Rat back at End, and I understand that.  I'm a little iffy on the idea as well.  But at worst, he would be a suitable fantastic back-up to have at a crutial position.  So, what would all this cost us, you ask?  I'm guessing somewhere along the lines of a 3rd ruond pick.  If Pitt is considering releasing the player anyway, that seems fair.  And as Dallas is concerned, I would jump on that deal.

During my daily swim through PFT, I saw an article in which writers in the Minnesota paper identified five Vikings who could make their first Pro Bowl appearance this season.  It was an interesting feature, and wanted to duplicate the experiment for the Cowboys.  Mind you, this is not an easy task as 14 current Cowboys have played in a Pro Bowl.  That's 63% of our Offensive starters, 45% of our Defensive starters, and 50% of our Special Teams starters.  So, here's my analysis of players who could, under the right circumstances, make the Pro Bowl for the very first time this season.  I've put them in order of likeliness, as I see it.

1.  Bradie James.  This is the easy pick.  He should have made the Pro Bowl last season, based on his performance.  The problem is that he plays in the same conference as Patrick Willis and Jon Beason.  Both those guys were former first round picks from big time college programs.  Because the Pro Bowl is essentially a popularity contest, it will be hard for James to unseat either of those guys.  You could compare their stats all day long.  Essentially you will find that Beason and Willis outperformed James in their more conservative defensive scheme with better stats related to tackles, interceptions and passes defended, whereas James outperformed the other two in the Cowboys more aggressive scheme, having many more sacks and forced fumbles. 

To me, all-pro voting by the Associated Press is the best measure of a player's performance.  Unlike the Pro Bowl, the AP team is made up of the best players per position, regardless of conference.  Obviously, this makes it more difficult (and a greater honor) to make the Associated Press All-Pro team.  When you look at the voting from last year at inside linebacker the first team was comprised of Ray Lewis-AFC (39 votes) and Jon Beason (18).  The second team was Patrick Willis (17) and James Farrior-AFC (12).  Also receiving votes from the NFC were London Fletcher (8), Barrett Ruud (1) and (what?!?!?) Stewart Bradley (1).  Bradie James was shutout.

The Pro Bowl utilizes a 4-3 defensive scheme, and therefore only has two ILBs on the roster, a starter and a reserve.  This will make it extremely difficult for Bradie as he not only has to outperform Beason and Willis (which didn't help him last year) but also London Fletcher, Barrett Ruud, and someone named Stewart Bradley.  According to London Fletcher (couldn't find anything online confirming this) he was the NFC's Pro Bowl alternate at ILB last season.

Odds of making the Pro Bowl in 2009: 3 to 1

2.  Felix Jones.  This one is also a possibility, but not all that likely.  He could put up wonderful numbers and still lose out on the Pro Bowl and all the best RBs in the NFL are in the NFC.  All four players who got All-Pro votes (Peterson, Turner, DeAngelo and Portis) all play in the NFC.  That's pretty tough competition.  Compare that to the AFC who had Thomas Jones start the Pro Bowl for them.  Jones is a nice back, but he's not Pro Bowl starter nice.  I would think Felix would be able to compete with the backs in that conference (Chris Johnson, Ronnie Brown and Marshawn Lynch also made it.)

The other aspect working against him is the running back by committee approach Dallas will certainly utilize.  Felix might have to rely on a few kickoff returns to make the Pro Bowl as a return man.

Odds of making the Pro Bowl in 2009: 8 to 1

3. Igor Olshansky.  Here is where the longshots start.  The easiest reason to dismiss this argument would be competition.  Again, the best DEs in the NFL are in the NFC.  The top four All-Pro vote getters (Justin Tuck, Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, and John Abraham) all reside in the NFC.  As does up-and-comer Trent Cole.  Olshansky making the Pro Bowl would require a huge season.  The one reason I think its possible is this: consider who he is playing next to.  Igor will most likely be playing Right End.  He will be flanked to his left by Pro Bowl NT Jay Ratliff.  Now that Ratliff has established himself as a force in the middle, he will draw more double teams.  This should leave Igor with many one-on-one situations.  If a team did want to double Olshansky, they might want to look over his right shoulder and peer into the eyes of best defensive player in the NFL.  Standard Pro Set offenses typically run their TE on the right side of the offensive line more often than not.  That will mean DeMarcus Ware will usually be lined up on the right side of the Defensive Line (the weak side.)  Because teams would be foolish to ask a back to block Ware, they will probably have the Tackle take him.  This will allow Olshansky to be one-on-one with a Guard.  Not a bad match-up for the 300+ lb Defensive End.  Let's hope he's able to parlay these match-ups into production.

Odds of making the Pro Bowl in 2009: 20 to 1

4.  Anthony Spencer.  Ok, I'm really getting ahead of myself here.  The kid hasn't even started in the league for a season, and I've got him going to the Pro Bowl.  The hope here is that, similar to Olshansky) he will not get a lot of attention from opposing offenses in 2009 with Ware on the other side of the line.  It worked for Greg Ellis two years ago.  Ellis had his best and only Pro Bowl season playing opposite Ware and offenses said let's max protect against number 94, don't worry about that old codger on the other side of the line.'  Ellis turned that into 12.5 sacks in only 13 games.

Another good example of this is Shaun Phillips in San Diego.  He's done some great work while playing opposite Merriman.  Only Phillips has yet to make it to a Pro Bowl after four straight solid seasons.  Considering the NFC Pro Bowlers at OLB last year (besides Ware) are all getting a little long in the tooth (Derrick Brooks was released by Tampa and might retire; Julian Peterson is on the wrong side of 30 and his play is starting to slip; Lance Briggs still seams to be playing at high level but will be 29 this season) maybe its time for this position to turn over.  It shouldn't surprise anyone if two or even three new players make the Pro Bowl at OLB in 2009.  Why not Spencer?

Odds of making the Pro Bowl in 2009: 20 to 1

5. Stephen Hodge.  I wasn't going to make this list without throwing at least one curveball at you.  Obviously he won't make the Pro Bowl at Linebacker or Safety or any other position on the defense.  But, I could see him making the Pro Bowl (assuming he makes the Cowboys 53 man roster first) as the Special Teams ace.  As you probably know, this slot on the pro bowl team was created for a Cowboy (Bill Bates) and we've had many ST aces in the past in Kenny Gant and Keith Davis.  So, I think it's time Dallas establishes another one in Hodge.  Our draft was centered around special teams, so I'm going to assume we got some good ones.  Of the highlights I've see on YouTube, Hodge may have the most potential as a gunner.  By the way, can you name the ST representative from the NFC last year?  Or maybe, I should ask the question a different way: 'Who the he!! is Sean Morey?'

Odds of making the Pro Bowl in 2009: 50 to 1

I'm sure many of you have seen the on-going piece over at the mothership regarding the Cowboys Top 50.  That's the top 50 players in their history, to those of you not paying attention.

http://www.dallascowboys.com/news/news.cfm?id=64538294-061A-BF03-DD09A882A2C20778

They took a panel of 9 Cowboyologists (need to trademark that) who combined their lists to create this census, in which they are releasing one new name per day.

I thought we at BTB might want to take a crack at this as well.  I would propose we could nominate a list of 75 - 100 players and then anyone interested could rank the greatest Cowboys 1 - 50.  You could email your list to me and I would put it into a spreadsheet and tabulate the results.

Might be an interesting time-kill for the offseason.

The idea of addition by subtraction (meaning, Dallas has gotten better by parting ways with some divisive forces in the locker room) seems to be prevalent around here lately.  I thought it was worth some evaluation.

It’s true that we’ve seen some examples of this lately, most notably with the Giants.  After losing in the first round of the playoffs the previous two years, the 2007 Giants won the Super Bowl after losing two of their premier offensive weapons – Tiki Barber to retirement and Jeremy Shockey to injury.  Barber wasn’t the negative influence some perceive Owens and Shockey to be, but the notion that the team improved in the wake of a significant loss of talent is the same.

Call it “making the team more Romo-friendly” if you prefer, but someone will have to fill the momentous void in talent left by Terrell Owens, Pacman Jones, and to a lesser extent, Tank Johnson.

Terry (he didn’t play like a “Tank” last season) Johnson seemed like a nice back-up option for Jay Ratliff the last year and a half.  He had a few moments where he looked good, but most of the time he was a non-factor getting eaten up by 300 lb. Centers and Guards.  Now, we have a huge hole at NT.  Ok, maybe the problem there isn’t losing Johnson as much as it is finding an adequate back-up.  He wasn’t the answer and the question of who takes that spot is still looming.

Pacman didn’t live up to expectations either.  He was average at best as a cornerback, and looked more like Mrs. Pacman on punt returns as he typically moved more backwards and side to side than he did up the field.  A year of rust surely contributed to his lack of production.  Review his 2006 season with Tennessee and you will see he was truly special.  He has all the talent in the world to play CB in the NFL and play it at a top 5 level at his position.  The issue with him is not talent, but desire … and an obvious lack of intelligence.  Like him or not, it's a significant loss of talent in the Dallas secondary.

Now, let’s take a deeper look at TO Eldorado Owens.  During his 13 year NFL career he’s been asked to leave (or something similar) an organization on three different occasions.  It was the 49ers after the 2003 season, Philly in the middle of the 2005 campaign, and just recently Dallas released him.  How did these teams fare with TO and then right after his departure?  Maybe we can determine some conclusions regarding what the Cowboys can expect.

I’ve taken the team’s record in TO’s last two seasons with the team, and the same team’s record the following two seasons.  Let’s see what we find:

San Francisco 2002 – 2003 with TO:  17 – 15  - Winning Pctg: .531

San Francisco 2003 – 2004 w/o TO:  6 - 26  - Winning Pctg: .188

Philadelphia 2004 – 2005* with TO:  17 – 6  - Winning Pctg:  .739

Philadelphia 2005 – 2007* w/o TO:  20 – 21  - Winning Pctg:  .488

(*Owens played the first 7 games of the 2005 season before he was suspended and subsequently deactivated by the Eagles for voicing his displeasure about his contract and making disparaging remarks about Donavan McNabb and Eagles Management.)

Dallas 2007 – 2008 with TO:  22 – 10  - Winning Pctg: .688

Dallas 2009 – 2010 w/o TO:  ???

So, in total, TO’s teams were 34 – 21 with him.  A winning pctg of .618.

Immediately following his departure, his teams went 26 – 47.  A winning pctg of .356.

On average teams went from 10 – 6 to 6 – 10, or dropped .262 in winning percentage, approximately 4 games per year.

One could use these numbers to hypothesize the Cowboys will drop from an average of an 11-5 season (22 – 10 over the last two years) to two 7 – 9 seasons on average over the next two seasons due to the loss of Terrell Owens.

Locker room and on-field chemistry is something we cannot predict, and I’m not trying to do so in this post.  Talent is a little more tangible.  I think there is little doubt Dallas has less talent on their roster compared to this time last season.  Let’s hope we can do more with less and get the most out the talent that is here.

According to this article over at the mother ship, new Cowboys kickoff specialist David Buehler believes he can have a touchback ratio of 80%, at Cowboys Stadium at least.  Does 80% seem like a lofty goal to anyone else?  According to this well written article by BishopWest, Rhys Lloyd from Carolina was the best at putting the ball in the end zone on kick-offs last season.  Lloyd had 30 touchbacks on 88 attempt for an average of 34% touchbacks.  So, for Buehler to reach his goal of 80%, he will have to more than double the production of the best kickoff kicker in the league.  Seems like a tough taks.

Bishop also points out that last year Buehler put 48 of 88 kickoffs (55%) out of reach to returners in the college game.  Obviously this is using the college ball and kicking tee, which seem to favor the college kicker.  So, again, he would have to improve upon last years stats by almost 50% to hit that 80% ratio.

I'll admit, I'm starting to get on board with the selection of the kickoff specialist.  And if he can consistently start teams off at their 20 yard line, I think we will all quickly become fans.  He's setting expectations pretty high, hopefully he's got the leg to back it up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZT2BKnjj_rw

Like most of you, I was not happy with this draft.  Ok, I'll admit it, I was enraged.  But after a 24 hour cool down period in which I have since read all the reviews and scouting report, watched the presser, listened to the radio talk shows, and watched the highlight videos on these guys ... I still don't like it.  It's probably not as bad as my initial reaction, but I think there will be lots of 'misses' from this draft.  So, I will post my prediction of this draft class and I would like to hear what Cowboys Nation thinks as well:

How many of the Dirty Dozen make the squad?

I'll guess ten.  The back of our roster is very thin.  The two I think wont make the team are Hodge and Manny Johnson.  UDFA Kevin Ogletree has a better chance of making the team than Johnson, especially if he can returns kicks and/or punts.

How many of the Dirty Dozen contribute this season?

I'll guess three.  My most lkely candidates are Jason Williams on special teams and in the nickle LB position, Hamlin could see some significant time at free safety, and Buehler as the kickoff specialist.

How many of the Dirty Dozen will be with the team in 5 years?

I'll say three again.  J. Williams gets some recognition and leaves in free agency similar to Kevin Burnett.  Brewster spends three years as a back-up and is replaced by someone younger.  McGee progresses nicely and is about to become the starter in 5 years.  Butler/B Williams - One fizzles out and the other is a nice back-up OLB piece.  The team realizes keeping Beuhler as a KO specialist isnt worth the roster spot and he moves on.  I think one of the three DBs (Smith, Mickens, and Hamlin) will turn into a starter on this team.  Just waiting to find out which one.

Will any of the Dirty Dozen ever make a Pro Bowl?

No.  If anyone has a chance, its one of the three DBs I mention above.

Will this draft class be considered a success in 3 - 5 years?

No.  There are a few usable pieces in there, but no one to make this draft a success. 

Ok, Cowboys fans ... what say you?

I represented the Cowboys in a mock draft on another website.  This was a pick-by-pick, 7 round, 256 pick mock draft with fan from each team representing their squad in the draft.  I think for the most part it went down like I see the actual draft going.  The only difference is there were no trades allowed during the draft.  All trades must be made prior to the draft and Dallas did pull off one trade:

I received Cleveland's pick #101 for my #117, 156 and 227.  Pick #227 isnt worth much at the end of the 7th round, so I basically gave up a late 5th rounder to move from the middle of the 4th round to the top of the 4th.

Here's the results:

Pick #51 OG Duke Robinson, Oklahoma.  I love this pick.  I've seen this guy play a ton of times and I think he will be a Pro Bowler at the next level.  Some have questioned his work ethic and ability to keep his weight in check, but I think a strong NFL program can harness his abilities.  At 6-5, 330 lbs this kid is a mauler.

I wasnt targeting anyone at this position and wanted to take the best football player available.  I considered every position with the exception of RB and TE where I think Dallas is set.

Who was there?  SS William Moore, NT Ron Brace, DE Alex Magee, SS Patrick Chung, FS Rashad Johnson.

Who wasnt?  C Alex Mack, CB Sean Smith, OLB Larry English, OT Jamon Meredith, CB Victor Harris, OT Phil Loadholt, SS Louis Delmas, WR Brian Robiskie.

Pick #69 FS Rashad Johnson, Alabama.  Seems like a solid contributor like a Ken Hamlin.  Probably wont ever be a superstar, but should be able to hold down a starting Safety job in the NFL for 5+ years.

After taking what I consider a luxury pick in Round 2, I wanted to zero-in on a position of need.  If trades were allowed I probably would have looked into trading up to try and get NT Ron Brace.  After he was picked at #60 I really wanted Patrick Chung.  Looked like it would happen and then Seattle took him at #68.

Who was there?   NT Dorrell Scott, CB Sherrod Martin, ILB Jasper Brinkley, CB Mike Mickens.

Who wasnt?   Brace, Chung, Moore, Magee.

Pick #101 ILB Jasper Brinkley South Carolina.  Hits like a freight train and perfect fit for ILB in a 3-4.  He's shooting up draft boards.  I've seen many mocks projecting him as a 5th or 6th rounder, but he will never last that long.

Pick #104 CB Coye Francies San Jose State.  Good height, speed and is physical.  Has experience in the return game as well.  Negatives are only two years of college experience as he was kicked off the Oregon St team and transferred to San Jose St.

I was hoping to find my Defensive Lineman with one of these two picks.  It didnt happen as Defensive Tackles and Ends kept flying off the board earlier than I thought they should.

Who was there?   ILB Darry Beckwith, OLB David Veikune, WR Jarrett Dillard, QB Rhett Bomar, OLB Tyronne McKenzie, DE Vance Walker, CB Kevin Barnes.

Who wasnt?   Martin, WR Derrick Williams, NT Chris Baker, FS Darcel McBath.

Pick #166 ILB Jason Phillips TCU.  I didnt intend to pick two ILBs, but he was the best player available, IMO.  I see him as a solid NFL back-up for 10 years.  Can play some special teams and fill-in for injured LBs.

Pick #172 WR Brooks Foster North Carolina.  Played in the shadow of first rounder Hakeen Nicks and early rounder Brandon Tate.  Foster is a bit raw, but great size and speed and a great athlete (played some basketball for the Tar Heels.)  Could be a great return man too.

Who was there?   CB LaDarius Webb, FS Chris Clemons, OT Alex Boone.

Who wasnt?  WR Brandon Tate, NT Terrence Taylor, QB Stephen McGee, OT Joel Bell, WR Austin Collie, WR Quan Cosby, CB Joe Burnett, WR Johhny Knox.

Pick #197 CB Captain Munnerlyn South Carolina.  Besides having a cool name, he has some game too.  Great speed and plays tough.  Good return man as well.  The downside is his size at 5'8, but could be a solid special teamer and nickle/dimeback.

Pick #208 CB Greg Toler St Paul's.  Not much known about this guy as no one has ever been drafted into the NFL from this school.  However, some scouts/websites are very high on him.  One had him in the Top 100 players in the darft.  Others don't even have him listed.  He's visited at least 17 NFL teams, so they know him.  With 4.35 speed, look for him to go much higher in the actual draft.

Pick #210 G/T Robert Brewster Ball State.  Good size at 6-4, 325 lbs.  Played all 4 years in college and never missed a game.  Should provide depth at Guard and Tackle.

Who was there?   QBs Curtis Painter, Nate Davis, Tom Brandstater and Graham Harrell.  WR Kevin Ogletree, CB Brandon Hughes, S Derek Pegues.

Who wasnt?  OG Louis Vazquez, NT Terrence Knighton, OG Roger Allen.

Overall I was pleased with the results.  No one really 'fell' too far into my hands with the possible exception of Duke in the 2nd.  I also really liked the value in Jason Phillips at the end of the 5th round.  I ended up doubling up at ILB and picked 3 CBs.  Those were not intentional, but I felt were the best value as opposed to reaching for a D Lineman or OLB a half a round early.  I did not get a chance to address either of those positions as I never felt the available players matched the value of the pick.  That strategy (staying with your board and not reaching, even if it means multiple picks at the same position) seemed to work well for Dallas last year (Felix/Choice and Jenkins/Scandrick.)  I wished I had picked up two WRs in the middle rounds, but that didnt work either.  In retrospect I might have been better served taking Jarrett Dillard (or OLB Tyronne McKenzie or DE Vance Walker) at pick #104 over CB Coye Francies knowing other CBs would be available later.  Finally, I did not address a 3rd QB.  The QBs fell hard and far in this draft and with so many developmental guys falling I kept choosing to hold off selecting one.  I strongly considered Painter or Brandstater at the top of the 7th round, but took the O Lineman instead.  I would hope one of these guys went undrafted and would make it a priority to sign one as a free agent.

So, that's it.  How did I do?