SB Nation User Blog: TCBinNYC

Casey Hampton might be available. Interested?

TCBinNYC — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 15:51:34 -0000

Jason La Canfora of the NFL Network is claiming that the Steelers might cut or trade NT Casey Hampton. He has been wanting a contract extention this offseason. The Steelers extended DE Brett Kiesel, but not Hampton. Indications are that they have no intention of doing so. Typically the Steelers let these guys play out their current agreement and then let them walk, but a trade makes some sense too as they are trying to dump salary. So, the obvious question is, should Dallas be interested?

Hampton is a 4 time Pro Bowler, but turns 32 on Wednesday. He's in the last year of his contract making around $3M, so not bad. He's a 6-1, 320 lb run stuffer. Not much pass rush (5.5 career sacks) but holds up well at the point of attack. He's been pretty durable averaging over 14 games the last 4 seasons and not missing a playoff game.

Personally, I think this could be exactly what we are looking for. He can take some plays from Jay Ratliff, and even allow Rat to play at End some for Spears who rarely impresses. If Hampton plays well, we can extend him 2-3 years and possibly even consider moving Ratliff to End fulltime once we dont re-sign Spears next season. I know many of you are not a fan of putting Rat back at End, and I understand that. I'm a little iffy on the idea as well. But at worst, he would be a ~~suitable~~ fantastic back-up to have at a crutial position. So, what would all this cost us, you ask? I'm guessing somewhere along the lines of a 3rd ruond pick. If Pitt is considering releasing the player anyway, that seems fair. And as Dallas is concerned, I would jump on that deal.

Cowboys making their first Pro Bowl in 2009

TCBinNYC — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 20:40:21 -0000

During my daily swim through PFT, I saw an article in which writers in the Minnesota paper identified five Vikings who could make their first Pro Bowl appearance this season. It was an interesting feature, and wanted to duplicate the experiment for the Cowboys. Mind you, this is not an easy task as 14 current Cowboys have played in a Pro Bowl. That's 63% of our Offensive starters, 45% of our Defensive starters, and 50% of our Special Teams starters. So, here's my analysis of players who could, under the right circumstances, make the Pro Bowl for the very first time this season. I've put them in order of likeliness, as I see it.

1. Bradie James. This is the easy pick. He should have made the Pro Bowl last season, based on his performance. The problem is that he plays in the same conference as Patrick Willis and Jon Beason. Both those guys were former first round picks from big time college programs. Because the Pro Bowl is essentially a popularity contest, it will be hard for James to unseat either of those guys. You could compare their stats all day long. Essentially you will find that Beason and Willis outperformed James in their more conservative defensive scheme with better stats related to tackles, interceptions and passes defended, whereas James outperformed the other two in the Cowboys more aggressive scheme, having many more sacks and forced fumbles.

To me, all-pro voting by the Associated Press is the best measure of a player's performance. Unlike the Pro Bowl, the AP team is made up of the best players per position, regardless of conference. Obviously, this makes it more difficult (and a greater honor) to make the Associated Press All-Pro team. When you look at the voting from last year at inside linebacker the first team was comprised of Ray Lewis-AFC (39 votes) and Jon Beason (18). The second team was Patrick Willis (17) and James Farrior-AFC (12). Also receiving votes from the NFC were London Fletcher (8), Barrett Ruud (1) and (what?!?!?) Stewart Bradley (1). Bradie James was shutout.

The Pro Bowl utilizes a 4-3 defensive scheme, and therefore only has two ILBs on the roster, a starter and a reserve. This will make it extremely difficult for Bradie as he not only has to outperform Beason and Willis (which didn't help him last year) but also London Fletcher, Barrett Ruud, and someone named Stewart Bradley. According to London Fletcher (couldn't find anything online confirming this) he was the NFC's Pro Bowl alternate at ILB last season.

Odds of making the Pro Bowl in 2009: 3 to 1

2. Felix Jones. This one is also a possibility, but not all that likely. He could put up wonderful numbers and still lose out on the Pro Bowl and all the best RBs in the NFL are in the NFC. All four players who got All-Pro votes (Peterson, Turner, DeAngelo and Portis) all play in the NFC. That's pretty tough competition. Compare that to the AFC who had Thomas Jones start the Pro Bowl for them. Jones is a nice back, but he's not Pro Bowl starter nice. I would think Felix would be able to compete with the backs in that conference (Chris Johnson, Ronnie Brown and Marshawn Lynch also made it.)

The other aspect working against him is the running back by committee approach Dallas will certainly utilize. Felix might have to rely on a few kickoff returns to make the Pro Bowl as a return man.

Odds of making the Pro Bowl in 2009: 8 to 1

3. Igor Olshansky. Here is where the longshots start. The easiest reason to dismiss this argument would be competition. Again, the best DEs in the NFL are in the NFC. The top four All-Pro vote getters (Justin Tuck, Jared Allen, Julius Peppers, and John Abraham) all reside in the NFC. As does up-and-comer Trent Cole. Olshansky making the Pro Bowl would require a huge season. The one reason I think its possible is this: consider who he is playing next to. Igor will most likely be playing Right End. He will be flanked to his left by Pro Bowl NT Jay Ratliff. Now that Ratliff has established himself as a force in the middle, he will draw more double teams. This should leave Igor with many one-on-one situations. If a team did want to double Olshansky, they might want to look over his right shoulder and peer into the eyes of best defensive player in the NFL. Standard Pro Set offenses typically run their TE on the right side of the offensive line more often than not. That will mean DeMarcus Ware will usually be lined up on the right side of the Defensive Line (the weak side.) Because teams would be foolish to ask a back to block Ware, they will probably have the Tackle take him. This will allow Olshansky to be one-on-one with a Guard. Not a bad match-up for the 300+ lb Defensive End. Let's hope he's able to parlay these match-ups into production.

Odds of making the Pro Bowl in 2009: 20 to 1

4. Anthony Spencer. Ok, I'm really getting ahead of myself here. The kid hasn't even started in the league for a season, and I've got him going to the Pro Bowl. The hope here is that, similar to Olshansky) he will not get a lot of attention from opposing offenses in 2009 with Ware on the other side of the line. It worked for Greg Ellis two years ago. Ellis had his best and only Pro Bowl season playing opposite Ware and offenses said let's max protect against number 94, don't worry about that old codger on the other side of the line.' Ellis turned that into 12.5 sacks in only 13 games.

Another good example of this is Shaun Phillips in San Diego. He's done some great work while playing opposite Merriman. Only Phillips has yet to make it to a Pro Bowl after four straight solid seasons. Considering the NFC Pro Bowlers at OLB last year (besides Ware) are all getting a little long in the tooth (Derrick Brooks was released by Tampa and might retire; Julian Peterson is on the wrong side of 30 and his play is starting to slip; Lance Briggs still seams to be playing at high level but will be 29 this season) maybe its time for this position to turn over. It shouldn't surprise anyone if two or even three new players make the Pro Bowl at OLB in 2009. Why not Spencer?

Odds of making the Pro Bowl in 2009: 20 to 1

5. Stephen Hodge. I wasn't going to make this list without throwing at least one curveball at you. Obviously he won't make the Pro Bowl at Linebacker or Safety or any other position on the defense. But, I could see him making the Pro Bowl (assuming he makes the Cowboys 53 man roster first) as the Special Teams ace. As you probably know, this slot on the pro bowl team was created for a Cowboy (Bill Bates) and we've had many ST aces in the past in Kenny Gant and Keith Davis. So, I think it's time Dallas establishes another one in Hodge. Our draft was centered around special teams, so I'm going to assume we got some good ones. Of the highlights I've see on YouTube, Hodge may have the most potential as a gunner. By the way, can you name the ST representative from the NFC last year? Or maybe, I should ask the question a different way: 'Who the he!! is Sean Morey?'

Odds of making the Pro Bowl in 2009: 50 to 1

Cowboys Top 50

TCBinNYC — Thu, 21 May 2009 20:14:53 -0000

I'm sure many of you have seen the on-going piece over at the mothership regarding the Cowboys Top 50. That's the top 50 players in their history, to those of you not paying attention.

http://www.dallascowboys.com/news/news.cfm?id=64538294-061A-BF03-DD09A882A2C20778

They took a panel of 9 Cowboyologists (need to trademark that) who combined their lists to create this census, in which they are releasing one new name per day.

I thought we at BTB might want to take a crack at this as well. I would propose we could nominate a list of 75 - 100 players and then anyone interested could rank the greatest Cowboys 1 - 50. You could email your list to me and I would put it into a spreadsheet and tabulate the results.

Might be an interesting time-kill for the offseason.

Addition by Subtraction

TCBinNYC — Wed, 20 May 2009 16:06:45 -0000

The idea of addition by subtraction (meaning, Dallas has gotten better by parting ways with some divisive forces in the locker room) seems to be prevalent around here lately. I thought it was worth some evaluation.

It’s true that we’ve seen some examples of this lately, most notably with the Giants. After losing in the first round of the playoffs the previous two years, the 2007 Giants won the Super Bowl after losing two of their premier offensive weapons – Tiki Barber to retirement and Jeremy Shockey to injury. Barber wasn’t the negative influence some perceive Owens and Shockey to be, but the notion that the team improved in the wake of a significant loss of talent is the same.

Call it “making the team more Romo-friendly” if you prefer, but someone will have to fill the momentous void in talent left by Terrell Owens, Pacman Jones, and to a lesser extent, Tank Johnson.

Terry (he didn’t play like a “Tank” last season) Johnson seemed like a nice back-up option for Jay Ratliff the last year and a half. He had a few moments where he looked good, but most of the time he was a non-factor getting eaten up by 300 lb. Centers and Guards. Now, we have a huge hole at NT. Ok, maybe the problem there isn’t losing Johnson as much as it is finding an adequate back-up. He wasn’t the answer and the question of who takes that spot is still looming.

Pacman didn’t live up to expectations either. He was average at best as a cornerback, and looked more like Mrs. Pacman on punt returns as he typically moved more backwards and side to side than he did up the field. A year of rust surely contributed to his lack of production. Review his 2006 season with Tennessee and you will see he was truly special. He has all the talent in the world to play CB in the NFL and play it at a top 5 level at his position. The issue with him is not talent, but desire … and an obvious lack of intelligence. Like him or not, it's a significant loss of talent in the Dallas secondary.

Now, let’s take a deeper look at TO Eldorado Owens. During his 13 year NFL career he’s been asked to leave (or something similar) an organization on three different occasions. It was the 49ers after the 2003 season, Philly in the middle of the 2005 campaign, and just recently Dallas released him. How did these teams fare with TO and then right after his departure? Maybe we can determine some conclusions regarding what the Cowboys can expect.

I’ve taken the team’s record in TO’s last two seasons with the team, and the same team’s record the following two seasons. Let’s see what we find:

San Francisco 2002 – 2003 with TO: 17 – 15 - Winning Pctg: .531

San Francisco 2003 – 2004 w/o TO: 6 - 26 - Winning Pctg: .188

Philadelphia 2004 – 2005* with TO: 17 – 6 - Winning Pctg: .739

Philadelphia 2005 – 2007* w/o TO: 20 – 21 - Winning Pctg: .488

(*Owens played the first 7 games of the 2005 season before he was suspended and subsequently deactivated by the Eagles for voicing his displeasure about his contract and making disparaging remarks about Donavan McNabb and Eagles Management.)

Dallas 2007 – 2008 with TO: 22 – 10 - Winning Pctg: .688

Dallas 2009 – 2010 w/o TO: ???

So, in total, TO’s teams were 34 – 21 with him. A winning pctg of .618.

Immediately following his departure, his teams went 26 – 47. A winning pctg of .356.

On average teams went from 10 – 6 to 6 – 10, or dropped .262 in winning percentage, approximately 4 games per year.

One could use these numbers to hypothesize the Cowboys will drop from an average of an 11-5 season (22 – 10 over the last two years) to two 7 – 9 seasons on average over the next two seasons due to the loss of Terrell Owens.

Locker room and on-field chemistry is something we cannot predict, and I’m not trying to do so in this post. Talent is a little more tangible. I think there is little doubt Dallas has less talent on their roster compared to this time last season. Let’s hope we can do more with less and get the most out the talent that is here.

Buehler's touchback ratio - 80% ???

TCBinNYC — Mon, 18 May 2009 19:09:44 -0000

According to this article over at the mother ship, new Cowboys kickoff specialist David Buehler believes he can have a touchback ratio of 80%, at Cowboys Stadium at least. Does 80% seem like a lofty goal to anyone else? According to this well written article by BishopWest, Rhys Lloyd from Carolina was the best at putting the ball in the end zone on kick-offs last season. Lloyd had 30 touchbacks on 88 attempt for an average of 34% touchbacks. So, for Buehler to reach his goal of 80%, he will have to more than double the production of the best kickoff kicker in the league. Seems like a tough taks.

Bishop also points out that last year Buehler put 48 of 88 kickoffs (55%) out of reach to returners in the college game. Obviously this is using the college ball and kicking tee, which seem to favor the college kicker. So, again, he would have to improve upon last years stats by almost 50% to hit that 80% ratio.

I'll admit, I'm starting to get on board with the selection of the kickoff specialist. And if he can consistently start teams off at their 20 yard line, I think we will all quickly become fans. He's setting expectations pretty high, hopefully he's got the leg to back it up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZT2BKnjj_rw

The Dirty Dozen (Part Deux) - Predictions

TCBinNYC — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 19:56:05 -0000

Like most of you, I was not happy with this draft. Ok, I'll admit it, I was enraged. But after a 24 hour cool down period in which I have since read all the reviews and scouting report, watched the presser, listened to the radio talk shows, and watched the highlight videos on these guys ... I still don't like it. It's probably not as bad as my initial reaction, but I think there will be lots of 'misses' from this draft. So, I will post my prediction of this draft class and I would like to hear what Cowboys Nation thinks as well:

How many of the Dirty Dozen make the squad?

I'll guess ten. The back of our roster is very thin. The two I think wont make the team are Hodge and Manny Johnson. UDFA Kevin Ogletree has a better chance of making the team than Johnson, especially if he can returns kicks and/or punts.

How many of the Dirty Dozen contribute this season?

I'll guess three. My most lkely candidates are Jason Williams on special teams and in the nickle LB position, Hamlin could see some significant time at free safety, and Buehler as the kickoff specialist.

How many of the Dirty Dozen will be with the team in 5 years?

I'll say three again. J. Williams gets some recognition and leaves in free agency similar to Kevin Burnett. Brewster spends three years as a back-up and is replaced by someone younger. McGee progresses nicely and is about to become the starter in 5 years. Butler/B Williams - One fizzles out and the other is a nice back-up OLB piece. The team realizes keeping Beuhler as a KO specialist isnt worth the roster spot and he moves on. I think one of the three DBs (Smith, Mickens, and Hamlin) will turn into a starter on this team. Just waiting to find out which one.

Will any of the Dirty Dozen ever make a Pro Bowl?

No. If anyone has a chance, its one of the three DBs I mention above.

Will this draft class be considered a success in 3 - 5 years?

No. There are a few usable pieces in there, but no one to make this draft a success.

Ok, Cowboys fans ... what say you?

My 7 Round Mock Draft

TCBinNYC — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 18:29:15 -0000

I represented the Cowboys in a mock draft on another website. This was a pick-by-pick, 7 round, 256 pick mock draft with fan from each team representing their squad in the draft. I think for the most part it went down like I see the actual draft going. The only difference is there were no trades allowed during the draft. All trades must be made prior to the draft and Dallas did pull off one trade:

I received Cleveland's pick #101 for my #117, 156 and 227. Pick #227 isnt worth much at the end of the 7th round, so I basically gave up a late 5th rounder to move from the middle of the 4th round to the top of the 4th.

Here's the results:

Pick #51 OG Duke Robinson, Oklahoma. I love this pick. I've seen this guy play a ton of times and I think he will be a Pro Bowler at the next level. Some have questioned his work ethic and ability to keep his weight in check, but I think a strong NFL program can harness his abilities. At 6-5, 330 lbs this kid is a mauler.

I wasnt targeting anyone at this position and wanted to take the best football player available. I considered every position with the exception of RB and TE where I think Dallas is set.

Who was there? SS William Moore, NT Ron Brace, DE Alex Magee, SS Patrick Chung, FS Rashad Johnson.

Who wasnt? C Alex Mack, CB Sean Smith, OLB Larry English, OT Jamon Meredith, CB Victor Harris, OT Phil Loadholt, SS Louis Delmas, WR Brian Robiskie.

Pick #69 FS Rashad Johnson, Alabama. Seems like a solid contributor like a Ken Hamlin. Probably wont ever be a superstar, but should be able to hold down a starting Safety job in the NFL for 5+ years.

After taking what I consider a luxury pick in Round 2, I wanted to zero-in on a position of need. If trades were allowed I probably would have looked into trading up to try and get NT Ron Brace. After he was picked at #60 I really wanted Patrick Chung. Looked like it would happen and then Seattle took him at #68.

Who was there? NT Dorrell Scott, CB Sherrod Martin, ILB Jasper Brinkley, CB Mike Mickens.

Who wasnt? Brace, Chung, Moore, Magee.

Pick #101 ILB Jasper Brinkley South Carolina. Hits like a freight train and perfect fit for ILB in a 3-4. He's shooting up draft boards. I've seen many mocks projecting him as a 5th or 6th rounder, but he will never last that long.

Pick #104 CB Coye Francies San Jose State. Good height, speed and is physical. Has experience in the return game as well. Negatives are only two years of college experience as he was kicked off the Oregon St team and transferred to San Jose St.

I was hoping to find my Defensive Lineman with one of these two picks. It didnt happen as Defensive Tackles and Ends kept flying off the board earlier than I thought they should.

Who was there? ILB Darry Beckwith, OLB David Veikune, WR Jarrett Dillard, QB Rhett Bomar, OLB Tyronne McKenzie, DE Vance Walker, CB Kevin Barnes.

Who wasnt? Martin, WR Derrick Williams, NT Chris Baker, FS Darcel McBath.

Pick #166 ILB Jason Phillips TCU. I didnt intend to pick two ILBs, but he was the best player available, IMO. I see him as a solid NFL back-up for 10 years. Can play some special teams and fill-in for injured LBs.

Pick #172 WR Brooks Foster North Carolina. Played in the shadow of first rounder Hakeen Nicks and early rounder Brandon Tate. Foster is a bit raw, but great size and speed and a great athlete (played some basketball for the Tar Heels.) Could be a great return man too.

Who was there? CB LaDarius Webb, FS Chris Clemons, OT Alex Boone.

Who wasnt? WR Brandon Tate, NT Terrence Taylor, QB Stephen McGee, OT Joel Bell, WR Austin Collie, WR Quan Cosby, CB Joe Burnett, WR Johhny Knox.

Pick #197 CB Captain Munnerlyn South Carolina. Besides having a cool name, he has some game too. Great speed and plays tough. Good return man as well. The downside is his size at 5'8, but could be a solid special teamer and nickle/dimeback.

Pick #208 CB Greg Toler St Paul's. Not much known about this guy as no one has ever been drafted into the NFL from this school. However, some scouts/websites are very high on him. One had him in the Top 100 players in the darft. Others don't even have him listed. He's visited at least 17 NFL teams, so they know him. With 4.35 speed, look for him to go much higher in the actual draft.

Pick #210 G/T Robert Brewster Ball State. Good size at 6-4, 325 lbs. Played all 4 years in college and never missed a game. Should provide depth at Guard and Tackle.

Who was there? QBs Curtis Painter, Nate Davis, Tom Brandstater and Graham Harrell. WR Kevin Ogletree, CB Brandon Hughes, S Derek Pegues.

Who wasnt? OG Louis Vazquez, NT Terrence Knighton, OG Roger Allen.

Overall I was pleased with the results. No one really 'fell' too far into my hands with the possible exception of Duke in the 2nd. I also really liked the value in Jason Phillips at the end of the 5th round. I ended up doubling up at ILB and picked 3 CBs. Those were not intentional, but I felt were the best value as opposed to reaching for a D Lineman or OLB a half a round early. I did not get a chance to address either of those positions as I never felt the available players matched the value of the pick. That strategy (staying with your board and not reaching, even if it means multiple picks at the same position) seemed to work well for Dallas last year (Felix/Choice and Jenkins/Scandrick.) I wished I had picked up two WRs in the middle rounds, but that didnt work either. In retrospect I might have been better served taking Jarrett Dillard (or OLB Tyronne McKenzie or DE Vance Walker) at pick #104 over CB Coye Francies knowing other CBs would be available later. Finally, I did not address a 3rd QB. The QBs fell hard and far in this draft and with so many developmental guys falling I kept choosing to hold off selecting one. I strongly considered Painter or Brandstater at the top of the 7th round, but took the O Lineman instead. I would hope one of these guys went undrafted and would make it a priority to sign one as a free agent.

So, that's it. How did I do?