I don't know how many people here read or like Football Outsiders, but they put up a good article yesterday breaking down several pass plays from the Broncos and Giants games.

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There's been some talk recently about whether Lovie will be around if the Bears don't make the playoffs next year, and who would replace him.  Some Bears fans are googly eyed over the prospect of (1-time) Super-Bowl winner Bill Cowher coming here.

I saw the news about the Rams releasing Pisa Tinoisamoa over at Football Outsiders, and this comment made me think about why having Lovie now is good for the Bears, and bringing in Cowher would be bad:

Somewhere out there is a Tampa-2 team that needs a smaller linebacker. Although -- man, the number of Tampa-2 teams has dropped, hasn't it?

Over the past few years, how many teams have switched to 3-4 defenses?  This year, the Chiefs and Packers are switching.  Dallas has been there for a few years, as has San Diego.  San Francisco switched recently.  The Jets will probably still operate as 3-4 somewhat, of course the Pats and Steelers do, and so on...

Meanwhile, how many Cover-2 teams are there?  I don't think Jim Schwartz runs one, so Detroit is out.  Green Bay is out.  Tampa and Indy are presumably still in, but after that...

My point here is simple.  To run a specific defense, you need players who fit that defense.  Anyone who's spent time studying defenses know that the players you want in a Cover-2 system are much different than what you want in a 3-4.  Cover-2 corners have to be stronger and don't need to be as quick as 3-4 (or any other system's) corners.  The defensive tackles need to be smaller and quicker, able to penetrate the line.  And so on.  But, in general the supply for each system doesn't grow.  So, your ability to get players to fit a system is mostly constrained by the demand--how many other teams also want players for that system.  And it's there that I think the Bears will have an edge in sticking to a Cover-2 in the future.  Because there won't be as many teams looking for the players the Bears want on defense, the Bears A.) won't have to look as hard, and B.) won't have to pay as much in terms of draft picks and/or contracts.  So, having Lovie and the Cover-2 stay on would let the Bears have the pick of the litter for defenders in the future.

Compare that with Bill Cowher.  Now, his coordinators (Dom Capers, Dick LeBeau) were more closely associated with it, but Bill always ran a 3-4 while he was with the Steelers.  I'm certain that if he was our coach next year, he'd want to switch the team over.  But unlike the Steelers, who had built up a strong base of 3-4 players for years and only had to fill in the cracks each year, the Bears would have to basically start from scratch for the entire defense.  I'm not joking; most of the players the Bears have on defense now wouldn't really fit anywhere on a 3-4.  That would leave the Bears begging and clawing for the scraps that were out on the market to make a defense, and it would show.  The Packers basically got extremely lucky that B.J. Raji, who projects to a perfect fit for the critical NT position, fell to them in the draft.  But there are maybe one of those players each year, and you have to fight for them.  There's a good chance that the Bears wouldn't get the guys they need.

I understand that the defense was not up to most people's standards last season, and I agree with that assessment.  And I realize that people want accountability, and I concur.  If Lovie can't get this thing working, then he might need to be let go.  But I think the road will be easier for us in the near future if we can stick with the Cover-2.  At least until it becomes super popular again.

I'm watching ESPN right now (11:20PM CST, 4/2), and all he's doing is going on and on about how the Bears are a bad offensive team, and have too many holes to fill, and this prevents them from doing that, and this is a bad move that will doom them to mediocrity.

Here's what I say to that, Mr. Schlereth:

First off, all I heard last offseason was how the Bear's offense was going to be awful.  Not just bad--HISTORICALLY bad.  Now, I'm not going to say our offense was good last year, but it was much better than ANYONE suggested it would be.  Now, we've added a top flight QB, but somehow this won't help?  Uh uh.

As for too many holes--I'm sorry, did we finish 3-13 last year?  No, I believe we were 9-7 and one game out of the playoffs.  That doesn't sound like we're that far out.

And hey--even if we were bad, doesn't everyone always say you should build around a good QB?  Well, I think that's what we're doing!  Even if we do crash and burn next season (which I doubt), wouldn't you want to have Cutler going into next season?

Geez...now Marky Mark is saying we're 3rd in the North, "just above Detroit".  It's like these guys don't actually watch the games.  I'm going to stop watching this before I get really mad.

(First fanpost, please be kind!)

Apparently the Bears have a liveblogger at the combine.  Larry Mayer.  Don't follow the site much or his blog, so I don't know much about him.  Right now, the liveblog (new window) is mostly boring--talking about the various OL working out today.  What I found interesting is the comment on Oklahoma OT Phil Loadholt (new window):

Mammoth Oklahoma offensive tackle Phil Loadholt...told reporters Thursday that the Bears were one of several teams he spoke with Wednesday night.

 

Pro Football Weekly’s 2009 Draft Guide ranks Loadholt as the 10th best tackle in the draft and projects that he will be selected in the third or fourth round.

(Formatted slightly different from original...not sure on the rules of that here.)

This is interesting because it gives thought to the Bears looking to upgrade their line later in the draft rather than earlier.  This is a really stacked draft at OT, and we might be better served going for value late than trying to get one of the elite tackles (who is likely to be a better LT than RT, which is what we need).

Of course, just because the Bears talked to this young man doesn't mean this is their definite plan.  I'm sure the Bears are talking to lots of OL at the combine (there are reports that they are talking to Oher, as well).  Still, it's important to remember that there are more rounds than just the first one, and we shouldn't be worried if a top priority doesn't get addressed in the first round.