Mile High Report blogger TJ "The Dude" Johnson posts The Dude's Mail Sack on Thursdays, in which he takes your questions about the state of the Denver Broncos. Got a burning question? Drop it into the The Dude's "Sack" or visit the homepage of Mile High Report.

TJ, So much has been made of Eddie Royal's sophomore slump.  Recently, Josh McDaniels said that Eddie is smiling again at the thought of becoming more involved in the offense in 2010.  And all of this because he's going to be playing slot receiver?  I have a hard time buying it.  Do you have any definitive statistical evidence that switching to the slot will really help him?

--Wesley Reklew, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Wesley:   Honestly, with all of the work I've been doing at the JaMarcus Russell Center For Kids Who Can't Read A PlayBook Good And Wanna Learn To Do Other Stuff Good Too, I've not had much time for stats.  But I've looked and can't find anything  that breaks things down by wide receiver position.  And even if I were to provide you with stats from a guy like Wes Welker, it would be difficult to say how many were accumulated out of the slot.  Welker  plays a variety of positions for the Pats,  although he's primarily used in the slot.  

What I can tell you is that Eddie is smiling because instead of playing the split end (X)  spot as he did almost exclusively last year, he'll be be much more frequently featured in both the slot (Y) and the flanker (Z).  This is important because the slot and flanker often line up off the line of scrimmage.  This creates an immediate space between defender and receiver.  It's this additional space that will allow Royal to utilize his exceptional quickness.  

NFL rules require at least 7 players line up at the line of scrimmage.  Last year, as a split end, Royal often had to be one of those 7.  Defenders had an easier time getting their hands on him and giving him the "Royal Treatment."   The thinking is that in 2010, Royal won't be so easy a target with this additional space already built into his routes.

Here is a quick highlight reel from Wes Welker that will give you an idea of how this this additional space allows Welker to get into his routes without a lot of contact from defenders.  Probably the only defender that could stop Welker would have to be the size of AJ Smith's titanic head.  As you can see, he's been quite successful (warning: turn down the volume if you hate loud music):

Wes Welker Highlights (via Mirrrrred)

Notice how Welker often starts (whether slot or flanked) off the line of scrimmage.  And notice how he's already into his rout well before a defender can get to him, often hitting the 5-yard contact barrier before even being touched.  If Royal can do this again and again, the Broncos will not miss Brandon Marshall--as much!

TJ, I saw your recent post on Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil not signing their 1-year tenders.  You really think this will hurt the Chargers that much?  We really don't need those guys.  We've got Denver's number every year. Perhaps you've heard of  Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers, who is probably the best QB in the league behind Peyton Manning. And we've unloaded our aging DT tackle on you. Good luck,  Fools!

--SoCalBlindAJSmithFollowerAndPotSmoker, Chula Vista, California

Keanu: In the words of glam-metal poet Rob Halford (Judas Priest), you got another thing comin', bra.  Listen, AJ "The Head" Smith's ego can't even fit into the building anymore.  I wouldn't be surprised if the guy keeps a LaDainian Tomlinson bobble-head doll in his office, just so he can practice mocking players every morning without having to face them.

Since 2003, when Smith took over, his teams have played in 1 AFC Championship, which, of course, they lost.  His drafts have been hit-or-miss.  And, if he let the truth emerge from behind his gargantuan head, he's still bitter that Eli Manning wouldn't play for him (or his astronomic head).   It appears, in retrospect, Manning knew what he was doing all along.  In fact, former Chargers quarterbacks seem to do a lot of winning once they get away from Smith and his mountainous head.  Perhaps Philip Rivers should demand a trade.

Gates and Rivers can take you only so far, unfortunately.  You're not making the playoffs this year.  Besides,  too many passes of Rivers' passes get deflected by AJ Smith's ginormous head.

Lebowski, I bet the rest of my 4th-grade class that you would know for sure who used to do backflips for the Broncos after they scored a touchdown.  My dad said you wouldn't let me down.

--David, Denver Public Schools, Denver Colorado

David:  First, why is your dad is letting you read this column each week?  You better tell your mom about it.  And be sure to tell him about the hot girl at the top of this page.  Oh, and if you take a vacation to Sea World, watch out for AJ Smith's copious head.  

Now, on to your question. I do indeed have the answer for you.  His name was Gerald Whillhite.  And his back flips were as awesome as the Mile High Salute.  Here's a great article on him and how he would block for John Elway in the "old days."  Tell your dad that means 1987.  My favorite quote from the article was this:

''I've been doing flips since I was 9 or 10 years old,'' he says. ''I never had any gymnastic training. I started doing it because everyone was doing something and I felt stupid because I wasn't doing nothing. I said, what can I do? And nobody was doing the flip.''

This is a good lesson for you, young David.  Instead of playing Xbox or Playstation, you should go out to your back yard and just start doing backflips, like Whillhite.  Or, I guess you can simply play the 1987 Broncos and have Whillhite do the backflip on the game.  Your choice.

Oh, and David, show some respect to your elders.  Call me Mr. Dude, please.   What is the public school system coming to?

TJ, I appreciate your stats, but...there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.  Football is just too complex for your stats to mean anything.  And stats can be made or bent to say anything you choose.   Anyone can have a good QB Rating if their line is All-Pro, but where is the stat for the linemen?  All of your articles are a classic textbook misapplications of stats.   The sample sizes are too small and correlation doesn't equal causation, TJ!

-- Eric Mono, El Paso, Texas

Eric:  First, thanks for the solid.  Second, the stats don't lie regarding the size of AJ Smith's cyclopean head.  It's large.  Finally, I ran some numbers on this.  When I get these kinds of comments, usually:

a: 60% are from drunk Raiders fans

b: 32% are from drunk Raiders fans who like to sound smart by quoting Mark Twain.

c:  7.5% are from drunk Raiders fans who know who Mark Twain is .

d: .5% are from drunk Raiders fans who can read Mark Twain.

Dude, who was the greater Bronco, Eddie McCaffrey or Rod Smith?  I personally would go with Shannon Sharpe, just because he was more entertaining.

--Sterling, Culver City, California

Sterling:  My god, man, can you give me a harder question?  That's like choosing between Batman and Superman. Or asking me if I'd rather punch Al Davis or  Al Davis' clone.  A very difficult question.

Smith has him beat statistically.  And you have to absolutely love what Smith does with Denver's young receivers.  If you haven't heard, he's already helped Demaryius Thomas learn to run better routes.  Smith just keeps giving and giving to this organization, whether it be with Eddie Royal, Brandon Marshall, or Thomas.    But McCaffrey was no slouch, setting a record for receptions in a year (at the time) and posting a career 13.1 yards-per-reception average, on par with Smith's 13.4.  

If you had to push me, I'd lean towards Smith, but I'm not choosing.  I can tell you both guys were greater than Marcus Nash.  That much, I'm sure of.  And probably great than AJ Smith's cetacean head.

Tell you what, I'll put it to a vote.  Should be interesting.  

This Week's Glam-Rock 80's Song/Video: Rock You LIke A Hurricane

Artist: Scorpions

Why It's So Bad It's Good: 1) Panthers and Leopards; 2) A Cage That Literally "Rocks"; 3) Sufficient Use of Girls Gyrating Like Wild Animals Who Can Also Bend Metal!  4) No sighting of AJ Smith's elephantine head.

Best Existential Lyric: "Here I Am, Rock You Like a Hurricane."

One should rarely heap praise upon division rivals.     While it might seem like a technically sound thing to do, it simply leaves you feeling a little dirty inside and you fall asleep at night knowing you've probably put bad karma into the world.   

But there's always an exception.

So today, it's time to salute the San Diego Chargers.

The road to the AFC West title just got easier, and not because Elvis Dumervil signed his 1-year tender.

Contract disputes have put the San Diego Chargers in a tough position, and because of it, the Chargers are likely going to play at least 10 of their regular-season games without the services of Pro-Bowl wide receiver Vincent "Action" Jackson and Pro-Bowl left tackle Marcus McNeil.  Both Jackson and McNeil wanted new deals and refused to show up and sign their 1-year tender offers by the mandated June 15th deadline.  After A.J. "I'm Smarter Than You Are" Smith decided not to budge, well, let's just say, the Denver Broncos--along with the rest of the AFC West--got a nice off-season gift. 

As of today, it appears the best case scenario puts Jackson and McNeil on the field in week 11. But so what?  Big deal.  By that time, the damage could have already been done.  The Chargers could be sitting in last place.  And eventually, the Broncos have to play at least .500 football in their last six weeks, right?

It's possible it could even get worse  for the Chargers.  Jackson is also threatening to hold out the entire 2010 season, although it would seem unlikely.   According to Mike Florio:

"Indications we've picked up suggest his camp is unfazed by the looming (as of Tuesday) decrease in his tender offer to 110 percent of his 2009 base salary, and that Jackson likewise has no qualms about holding out into the season because he expects to be suspended for at least two games in the wake of his second DUI guilty plea."

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Mile High Report blogger TJ "The Dude" Johnson posts The Dude's Mail Sack on Thursdays, in which he takes your questions about the state of the Denver Broncos. Got a burning question? Drop it into the The Dude's "Sack" or visit the homepage of Mile High Report.

TJ, it is with great sadness that I write to you to tell you that I did not make the Broncos Cheerleading squad for 2010. Things were going great until I suddenly pulled my hamstring during my routine as I was rocking to Bad Romance from Lady Gaga.  I tried to gut through it.   I tried to imagine I was Kyle Orton, playing through the pain.  But finally, it was too much.  I knew I was done-for when they asked me if I'd rather dance to Katy Perry.  

I can walk away with my head held high, TJ.  I know you and MHR were pulling for me.  Thanks to everyone who believed that a sexually-ambiguous aerobics instructor from Colorado Springs could live the dream.  I can't wait to attend a home game this year and watch those girls dancing so fast that Tim Tebow will want to rethink his promise ring!

--Charlie, Colorado Springs, Colorado

Charlie:  This is terrible news!  We really were pulling for you, my dear friend.   But perhaps it was meant to be. Imagine how devastating it would have been for your clients.  And do you really want to dance to Alejandro that many times during the season.  You seem more like a hard-core R&B dancer to me, but I assume the stripper pole is optional.   And remember, it could always be worse.  You could be a Raiders fan.  Or a stripper.  Or a Raiders fan working as a stripper.

Duuuuuude, does Tebow start this year or not?  Tell the truth!

--James Clausen, South Bend, Indiana

James:  It would be silly of me to backtrack now.  I prefer to look at this from the perspective of my three major body parts:

1) The Head : Kyle Orton.  This is the logical choice.  He's been in the system and knows the offense the best.   He should improve on last year's numbers.  He should be the QB.  

2) The Heart: Brady Quinn.  Several years ago, Charlie Weis truly believed this guy was the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.  From what I hear, he's picking up the offense faster than a Raiders fan picks up sexually transmitted diseases.  He lifts weights.  He's good looking.   And if he's half the player Weis thought, he's golden.

3) "Other:" Tim Tebow.  I swell with pride at the thought of Tebow running goal-line sets and confusing defenses.  

Peter King  has written about all three quarterbacks, and with each subsequent article, I get confused even more.  At one point, he's talked about Orton keeping the job.  At another, Quinn would have a shot.  And finally, he's said that Tebow will be given a chance to win the job as well.  What's the lesson in all of this?  Peter King is just like the rest of us.  He has no idea.

After listening to Def Leoppard for about 30 minutes this evening, it finally came to me.  Quinn wins the job by Week 1, and Tebow gives Denver a lot of flexibility in a variety of goal-line sets.  

And don't ask me what the "Other" body part is.  You already know the answer.

TJ, you are soooo smug, aren't you?  Let me tell you something, with the drafting of Tebow, I am done as a Broncos fan.  They have no committment to winning.  This is just crap.

Done!  Do you hear me?  I used to be a fan in 1977.  Then again in 1986 and 1987.  Between those years I was just too busy.  1988 was my Phil Simms protest year.   Then 1989 I found my way back to the team.  But then, mired in mediocrity, I couldn't follow the team again until 1996.   Some people call in my 7-year mid-life crisis.  I just call it my "Porsche years," okay?  But the point is that it was simply unbearable watching the Broncos during that time.   But in 1996, things came around again, and I became a die-hard fan.

I'm telling you, between 1996 and 1999, I bled orange and blue--forever.  Forever!  But after Elway, it just wasn't the same.  In 2005, I came out of my depression briefly, but it was short-lived.  I don't know why.   I can't put my finger on it.  Let's just say, I've been depressed ever since.  And then, out of nowhere, I fell in love with Mike Iupati.  His giant frame.  His flowing locks.  His tribal tattoo.  Something inside me stirred.  I knew the Broncos were destined to draft him.  And he was there for the taking.  But we dropped the Head N' Shoulders.

I think I'm going to become a 49ers fan.  Or at least get with a respectable organization committed to Somoans, like the Steelers.  I thought you should know.  I. Am. Done.

--Zed, Boulder, Colorado

Zed: You wrote all of that and didn't mention Maa Tanuvasa?  Get out of Colorado immediately.

Lebowski, everyone likes to make predictions so they can say they were the first one who got it right.  What is your boldest prediction for the Broncos in 2010?  By the way, we love MHR over here in Europe!

-- Mike D. Nostredame,  Marseille, France

Mike:  Would you like it in the form of a quatrain?  So be it:

Beasts ferocious with hunger will cross the Chargers,
The greater part of the battlefield (and Jamaal Williams) will be against Rivers.
Into a cage of iron will the great Tebow be drawn,
When the whining Rivers is cast into fire, observe a 12-4 division title.

That about covers it, Mike.   And you can keep all the money you win in Vegas.  I'm just here for your "entertainment."

TJ, I know you weren't happy with the Demaryius Thomas pick, but you've got to admit, a large wide receiver who can stretch the field is just what the doctor ordered.  Get with the program.  In the Hooded one we trust!

--B. McDaniels, Parker, Colorado

B:  I'm getting hip to the pick.  I'm coming along.  I still think Eric Decker will have a better 2010 for the Broncos, however.  Assuming they both start camp healthy, Decker is just a better route runner and will have more catches and yards.   In Denver's offense, however, catching the ball is just one of many skills needed.  Thomas is already a better blocker than Brandon Marshall, so all of us should be willing to give this kid some time to learn the offense as the Broncos pound out 4 yards per carry. 

Mr. Lebowski, would you consider listing an 80's Glam Rock Song in your "Sack" each week?  Nothing screams NFL football like lipstick and leather!

--Thomas Johnston, Cheyenne, Wyoming

Thomas:  No problem.  I'm actually glad you asked.  If there's one thing I know, it's Lip Stick Metal.  Most of these songs are so bad they are actually good.  I'll sacrifice and give you one each week.  Let's see....here you go:

This Week's Glam-Rock 80's Song/Video:   Girlschool

Artist: Britny Fox

Why It's So Bad It's Good:   1) Sufficient use of hot girls in school uniforms dancing and gyrating;  2) A classroom that suddenly becomes a glam-rock arena; 3) A drummer with a head band, a pirate's shirt, and leather pants--all while catching his drum stick in mid-air! 

Best Existential Lyric: "Cuz my baby broke all the rulz"

"If you haven't played the game of football, you couldn't possibly understand."

--Ryan Leaf, 1998

One of my favorite blogs on the web is Shutdown Corner over at Yahoo Sports.  They don't take football as seriously as your typical Oakland resident and they generally focus on the lighter side of today's NFL--always good traits to have. Recently, they brought us some hard-hitting information on the woman that charged $95,000 on Reggie Wayne's credit card, and previously waxed poetic on Jared Allen's mullet lifestyle.  In short, the kind of stuff that is simply awesome.  

My favorite thing they do, however, is to point out some rather interesting and controversial perspectives of athletes.

Which brings me to a recent quote from Aaron Rodgers.  In the last few months, Rodgers has been feeling a little frisky (or upset that he was chosen behind Alex Smith?)  and has hammered draft analysts like Todd McShay on his Twitter account for, in his opinion, not being well versed enough in the technical aspects of reading defenses.

A few days ago, he gave an interview to a local Milwaukee-ESPN affiliate and decided to do some more blasting of the media.  When asked about the kinds of analysts he respects, he had this to say:

"A good starting point is if you have played in the league and had some success. I'm not talking about you. I'm talking about guys on ESPN and stuff like that. (Editor: What about Ron Jaworski?) I like him, but, when I was coming out, he did the worst segment in the history of TV about me talking about my fundamentals. It was not even close to anywhere near my fundamentals. The first time I met him, someone introduced me to him and I said, ‘Yeah I know him. He's the guy who ripped me before the draft.' The rest of the night he told me how great I was. I was like, ‘I know your song and dance.' And now he loves me. I like Trent. He does a good job. He's had success at the position. You look at Marcellus Wiley up there talking about quarterback play. The guy was a defensive end for a few years in the league. He's not any good."

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Last week, as I was discussing the Broncos upcoming schedule, I made a comment that you hear from time to time:

Denver, humidity, and early games never mix.

After making this sort of a statement, I realized I was simply making like a member of the Black Hole--offering up an opinion without any data to back it up.  I had heard this mantra before (cold-weather teams don't play well in humidity), so I was simply reproducing something that seemed, at first, to be common sports-knowledge.  Also, I remembered well enough the first game of the 2005 season, in which Jake Plummer (who should just now be retiring a Bronco) led an excellent Broncos team into Miami, only to wilt under the oppressive heat and swamp-like conditions of south Florida.  The outcome was a 34-10 butt whoopin', the likes of which only Raiders teams dare to tread.  

So both my tendency to repeat what others have said, along with a selective memory, endeared me to the ever-ready generalization.  Luckily I decided to check and see if the generalization held swamp water.

I'm not recommending this to anyone, but I spent several hours gathering weather data from every Broncos regular-season game from 2000-2009.    Along with wins, losses, and scores, I recorded the temperature, the relative humidity level, and the wind speeds at kick-off.   If there was a correlation between what the Broncos were doing on the field and the weather, I would be sure to find it with 10 seasons of data.

So you'd like to know, wouldn't you?  Do the Denver Broncos wither under the soggy heat like a Sebastian Janikowski field-goal attempt in December?

Survive the jump, and I'll give you the results of what happens when you stop the world, lock yourself in a room with NFL game-books, and face Mother Nature mano a mano.

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"We'll know for the first time, if we're evil or divine." 

--Ronnie James Dio (Heavy Metal Poet & NFL Schedule Soothsayer)

This week I was going to preview the Broncos 2010 schedule and give you a game-by-game breakdown of the brutality of the first six games:

9/12 -- at Jacksonville 1:00 pm
9/19  -- Seattle 4:05 pm
9/26 -- Indianapolis 4:15 pm
10/3 -- at Tennessee 1:00 pm
10/10 -- at Baltimore 1:00 pm
10/17 --  NY Jets 4:05 pm

At first glance, none of these games (outside of Seattle) are games that you would circle and say, "yeah, Denver's got that game."    In fact, I was ready to lament facing Peyton Manning and the Colts.  I was ready to cry at having to go on the road to face Tennessee and Baltimore in back-to-back-early road games.  I was ready to hang my head at the prospect of facing the mighty Gang Green.  

But then I came to my senses and checked my biases at the door--except that ones against Raiders fans and drunk street rioters, which I should combine into one bias, because they're always the same sets of people.

For several weeks now, I've been parroting the false expectation that the early part of Denver's schedule is somehow going to be tougher than the latter half.  But then I realized, it's almost impossible to know in the preseason if a schedule is either hard or easy based on last year's results.  

Let's face it.  There are no easy games on an NFL schedule. After years of watching the Broncos-Raiders, Broncos-Chiefs, and the Broncos facing anyone with a losing record in December, my intuition should have told me better.    I guess watching Jabar Gaffney shred Kansas City's 3rd-string corner backs in last season's finale blinded me to the fact that superior teams often lose to teams with Matt Cassel.

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We interrupt your regularly-scheduled Tim Tebow news, for an important announcement.

3rd downs matter.   

In the 2009, the Denver Broncos were pretty far from okay.  The team's lack of success on 3rd down was more than just a drive staler, it was the black plague of the Broncos season.  Whether through the air or on the ground, rain or shine, throwbacks or alternative jerseys, the Broncos mustered a hideously and perfectly grotesque Raiders-like 3rd-down conversion rate of 36.18%.  

3rd-down conversions are, like turnovers and field position, another critical marker of success in the NFL.  In fact, the team that won the battle on 3rd down in 2008 and 2009 (512 games) won about 70% of the time.  The only team that reached the playoffs last year with a 3rd-down conversion rate of less than 40% was the New York Jets.  And they needed help to get there.

The Broncos in 2009 could make no such playoff claim.  I remember writing in my weekly piece called The Stats That Don't Lie, the following during week 14 of last year:

I'm not letting the Broncos off the hook on 3rd downs, where they rank 23rd in the league. This is just an atrocious stat given that teams like the Detroit Lions are more effective. If the Broncos don't make the playoffs, we can all point to 3rd downs as the reason why...it's outrageous that an 8-5 team is hovering at around 35% on 3rd downs--the Kool-Aid has gone just a tad bitter.

Even as early as week 9, when  Jamie Dukes was busy jumping on the Broncos bandwagon, I wrote this about the problems the Broncos were facing on 3rd downs:

We need to also be honest regarding 3rd-down efficiency...If the Broncos ever want to make a legitimate run at the playoffs, they need to be above 40%...until Denver improves on 3rd down, the criticism of Orton will continue, and much of it will be warranted. 

In a league in which the average 3rd-down conversion rate was 38.59%, the Broncos were a just a sleeping gimp.

So for the Broncos to ensure a better finish than their hillbilly-boy record of 8-8 last year, 3rd down was one statistic they couldn't ignore in both NFL Free Agency and in The Draft.

What they needed in the off season was a pair of pliers and a blowtorch.  

What did they get?  Survive the jump, and let's get medieval.

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For those new to MHR, you may not be aware that MHR is a community of tough but sensitive poets.  

Not really.   But I had to get you to keep reading somehow.  The truth is that last year we just kept giving a beat down to divisional opponents during the weeks leading up the the games.  Our weapon of choice?  The tested and true Limerick.    So if you are looking for a laugh, or you just can't sleep tonight, here are some of our previous Limerick contests with the fools over at Arrowhead Pride, Silver and Black Pride, and Bolts From the Blue.

Raiders Week

Chiefs Week

Chargers Week

It's simply too easy to make fun of players like JaMarcus "That Pizza Is Mine!" Russell, Philip "I've Got a Drew Brees Complex" Rivers, and the entire defensive line for the Chiefs (how many 1st-round draft picks do they need to waste, I mean, you can only use 4 guys at a time).  

Troy Hufford (kentuckybronco) and I were thinking that since today is National Limerick Day it would give us yet another opportunity to not only drop some knowledge on the division, but also some seriously good insults. However, we're making this Open Mic here at MHR, so there is no topic off the table.

You want to make fun of Tim Tebow?  Try to make it rhyme, sucker.  You want to get a blast off on the Hoodie?  Do it while counting syllables, punk.  Or perhaps, like me, you want to send JaMarcus Russell out in style:

Ode To The Dude Who Didn't Play QB For The Raiders

JaMarcus The Hutt liked to eat.

So hungry he ate his whole cleat.   

    Only he couldn't stop there.

    300 pounds was his care.

The taste of twinkies simply too sweet.

Now it's your turn, MHR.  Give your best NFL or Broncos-related limerick.   Don't worry if your syllable counts aren't perfect.  You know that Raiders fans won't be able to read them anyway.

In the NFL in 2009, coaches were only successful using instant replay for challenges 32% of the time.   While throwing those red (or sometimes pink) flags are good exercise for the rotator cuff, they don't often result in overturning a call on the field.  

Perhaps if they struck a Raiders fan they would be of more use.

Given the long odds of overturning a call, I thought I would throw my own challenge flag on six comments I've heard in the media over the last week.  While the odds of me changing your mind might be long, someone's got to try it.  And I've only to convince you on two of these challenges to beat the league average.

So let's hit the jump, and don't let these flags put your eye out.

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It took a few days, but I'm done grieving.  Like a Raiders fan after another 4-12 season, I'm back for more.  

You see, I've come to accept that Tim Tebow will be the quarterback of the Denver Broncos.  

It may not be at the start of training camp.  And it may not be in 2010.  But it's coming.   And much sooner than you think. 

Josh McDaniels did not trade up for Tim Tebow in the 1st round so that he could throw him into the game for only 4 or 5 gimmick plays.  He didn't draft him to become an H-back in the Wild Horses set.  And he didn't draft him--contrary to reports--because Tebow is the squeakiest and cleanest poster child the NFL has ever seen.  While Tebow might have lips like sugar, he is here because Josh McDaniels intends to make him a starting quarterback at some point in the near future.  McDaniels himself put the notion of Tebow being a gimmick to bed last Saturday, saying about Tebow:

"He's a quarterback. He's a quarterback. That's all he's going to do."

Okay, Josh.  I get it.  I get it.

It's possible that Kyle Orton pulls a Drew Brees and throws 27 TDs and only 7 INTs.  It's possible he leads them to the playoffs and the Broncos go 12-4.  That's why Edison invented the franchise tag.  Sure, this is all possible.  But in the mind of McDaniels, it's unlikely.   

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If you care about god, country, and apple pie, you should care about one thing in this year's NFL draft.

You better pray the Denver Broncos draft a return specialist.

You see, the NFL, just like any profession has evolved to the point of labor specialization.   While Karl Marx wasn't a big fan of specialization (he thought it turned workers into machines), it turns out that Vince Wilfork doesn't make a very good place kicker.  And Matt Prater isn't much of a strong safety.   Different guys have different skill sets and they specialize in specific situational football.  Of course, I'm telling you what you already know.

It seems, however, when it comes to kick and punt specialists, we tend to think anyone can do it.  We throw a 3rd string running back into the mix.  If that doesn't work, let's see what happens if we throw our fullback out there.  Or if that doesn't work, we can simply take a wide receiver and have them double as a return specialist.   We saw the Broncos try this with Eddie Royal last year, and the results were rather mixed.  While he did have some electrifying returns, his overall return numbers were average. Moreover, his receiving game suffered.  Concussions and touches aside, the wear and grind of returning did not help Eddie Royal the receiver.

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Mile High Report blogger TJ "The Dude" Johnson posts The Dude's Mail Sack on Thursdays, in which he takes your questions about the state of the Denver Broncos. Got a burning question? Drop it into the The Dude's "Sack" or visit the homepage of Mile High Report.

TJ, how you like me now?  

--B Marsh, South Beach, Florida (kickin' it, I would add)

B Marsh:  Felicidades, my man.  I can't blame you for cashing in.  If any of us were in your position, we would have done the same thing.  Well, I'm not sure if I would have punted the football in practice like that.  And I'm guessing Rod Smith never tried it, but perhaps you were just showing McDaniels the "versatility" he likes by demonstrating you had a bigger leg than Mitch Berger.  

But seriously, congrats.  The common fan just doesn't have the capacity or appreciation for how you played this out.  It was clever, and I for one, love a good actor.  Bravo.  Don't let any fan tell you otherwise.  I expect--following your leadership--we'll see our fair share of preschool teachers pulling up lame with hamstring injuries next month in the hopes they can hold out for contract extensions from other preschools.  You've set the bar pretty high, though.  And I commend you for it.

I give you my word that I simply will  not stand idly by and watch Broncos fans take shots at you as you walk out the door.  If I see someone doing it, I'm going to take their arm and shove it right through a television screen in your honor. 

You are now the highest paid wide receiver in the history of the NFL.  I think you ought to treat yourself to some McDonald's.  

You are now richer than Jerry Rice.  But at least he has golf to fall back on.  

Dude, you still like Iupati at #11?  There's still time to change, you know.  

--P Jakovac, Boise, Idaho

M: Jakovac, what sort of a name is this?  Sounds a little too much like crackerjack to me.    And that's probably what my pick is right now.   So I better change.  When I saw the excitement with which Sean Weatherspoon tweeted earlier this weak after visiting the Broncos, I'm going to be honest with you.  The thought of quiet and well-mannered Samoans left my mind.  Here is what Weatherspoon tweeted on Tuesday:

Great meeting with Coach McDaniels, Martindale and Roman Phifer! I can dig it! What does Twitter think about me and DJ Williams side by side

Weatherspoon then proceeded to take pictures of Brian Dawkins' locker, which got him even more excited.  I'm telling you right now, if Weatherspoon is getting this amped up just looking at Brian Dawkins' locker, imagine what he'll do when he sees Dawkins' adamantium claws for himself. 

The other thing I didn't realize about "Spoon" until someone alerted me to the fact, is that he's a fan of 80s-hair metal. Check out this video of Sean rocking to Van Halen: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyafsfciih8

Spoon is the kind of guy that lights up the room.  And he's has the ability to be a 3-down LB, despite playing at 250 lbs. as a senior.  He would also bring some vocal leadership to Broncos linebacking corp.  As Eric Edholm wrote in Pro Football Weekly:

The self-professed motormouth was easily one of the first leaders established on the fields of the Senior Bowl practices.  Although he barely had been introduced to his teammates 24 hours prior, Weatherspoon was barking orders about where they needed to be lined up. 

So mark me down for Weatherspoon at pick #11.   I also think that with Marshall gone they'll take a run at wide receiver Arrelious Benn and nose tackle Terrence Cody in the 2nd round, and try to hope that tackle/guard Vladimir Ducasse lasts until round 3.  If Tony Scheffler is traded in the next several days for a 3rd round pick, add Toby Gerhart to the list as well.   

Don't ask me to choose between Sammy Hagar and David Lee Roth, please.  It tears my heart.  

Mr. Lebowski, I really liked your numerology segment in last week's mailbag.  Can you use this power to predict the number of wins the Broncos will have next year?  You know, just for entertainment purposes.

--Darrell  Icht, Las Vegas, Nevada

Darryl: No problem. I often use the 8-Ball and the most recent Woody Paige column for this sort of thing, but for a Broncos fan, I'll make an exception. This one is easy. Let's use this phrase:

JOSH MCDANIELS FOREVER!

This is the phrase that I've recently tatooted in one of my private areas. Thus, I feel strongly about it. We simply assign our corresponding numerical value to each letter in the phrase and we find the following:

(J)1+(O)6+(S)1+(H)8+(M)4+(C)3+(D)4+(A)1+(N)5+(I)9+(E)5+(L)3+(S)1+(F)6+(O)6+(R)9+(E)5+(V)4+(E)5+(R)9 = 95--> 9+5 =14 wins.

There you go. The Denver Broncos are going to go 14-2 next year. Are you not entertained!

El Gran Hombre, do you think it's a big deal that Tim Tebow only scored 22 on his Wonderlic?  Or is it just another excuse for us fans to spend more time watching television?  

--Garr  Denwerk, Victoria, British Columbia

Garr: I'm glad you brought this up. It gives me a chance to wax poetic on my favorite subject. The Wonderlic. I hear all the time from the voices in my head about how unimportant the Wonderlic is. After all, Dan Marino and Vince Young only scored 15 (Marino's is often reported as 16) and look how good they were/are. While it is true that there isn't a correlation between the NFL's QB Rating System and and wonderlic scores, I'll never pass up an opportunity to demonstrate that John Elway is and always will be a better quarterback than Dan Marino.

Here are the Wonderlic scores of the last 10 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks:

Drew Brees: 28

Ben Roethlisberger: 25 (amazing, eh?)

Eli Manning:39

Peyton Manning: 28

Tom Brady: 33

Brad Johnson: Unavailable

Trent Dilfer: 22

Kurt Warner: Unavailable

John Elway:29

Brett Favre: 22

I'll go out on a limb here and guess that Kurt Warner and Brad Johnson are smarter than Dan Marino and Vince Young. Even if we eliminate Warner from the list, the average of these quarterbacks is 28.25, or MUCH higher than Dan Marino's score.

Again, there is NO correlation between the Wonderlic and QB Ratings. It's been studied.  It's only a pure coincidence that John Elway has two more rings than Dan Marino, even though Elway went to Stanford and his Wonderlic was 14 points higher.

Dan sure threw for a lot of yards, however. And he really yelled--a lot!

Garr, did you say something about Tim Tebow?

TJ, Charlie here again! I've taken some time off from my aerobics instructor job, and I am considering trying out for the Denver Broncos cheerleaders. What do you think my chances are at the age of 26? Am I over the hill or do you think my tight dancer's body will be enough? And whom do I contact?

--Charlie, Colorado Springs, Colorado

Charlie: You've asked a timely question. And for an aerobics instructor to use whom in the proper context, I'm quite impressed. Try outs for 2010 are beginning on April 25th! You've still got time to get ready. In fact, Teresa Shear, Director of the Broncos Cheerleaders has an entire web page devoted to the tryouts. They are even opening some of the final auditions to the public. Wow. You know all of us at MHR will be pulling for you. In fact, I may use this weekly forum to push your candidacy. If you haven't heard, I may, at some possible point in the future, have the potential to perhaps speak to John Elway through one of my imaginary friends. I'll put in a good word with you. I'm kind of a big deal, despite the fact that I blog from the basement of my parents.

As for your age, haven't you heard? 26 is the new...well, 26. You'll be fine. There's no need to go all Bill Romanowski on us. You're no older than a NFL running back entering his prime. So break a leg...or the competition. Be warned, however, the Broncos Cheerleaders all scored higher than Dan Marino on their Wonderlic. And they are HOT.

Just promise me one thing. I'm hoping that the Broncos Cheerleaders will decide to be the unofficial postal workers for the Dude's Weekly Mail Sack here at MHR. If you make the club, please ask them to consider it.

Mile High Report blogger TJ "The Dude" Johnson posts The Dude's Mail Sack on Thursdays, in which he takes your questions about the state of the Denver Broncos. Got a burning question? Drop it into the The Dude's "Sack" or visit the homepage of Mile High Report.

Dear Thaddeus Jarlath Johnson,

I just felt I should warn you that I plan on dominating the MHR Draftivus contest with my most recent theoretical work, based on the writings of Von Nuemann and Morgenstern. Your little MHR game should make for a simple test case for proving some of my more advanced game theory equations, and I just felt that I should mention this, since there will be no reason for anyone else to enter the contest once my entry has been submitted. My calculations will be so awesomely accurate that they will eliminate the possibility that anyone could even come in second. It will be too awe-inspiring.

I hope I have saved your membership a lot of hard work and toil with this announcement.

Sincerely
J.F.Nash, Princeton, N.J.

J.F:  I appreciate you writing in.  Now, I can truly say I have a "beautiful sack."  You are of course, referring to MHR's 7-round mock draft contest, which is the brainchild of the always maniacal Jeremy Bolander.  While I find your confidence both predictable and warranted, I must tell you one thing.  I will break you.   And then I will mock you. Wait.   I'll mock you and then I will break you.  Either way, consider yourself sufficiently annihilated, eviscerated, emasculated, and other words that Mike Tyson doesn't know. 

How?  Well, The Dude has his own equations, man.   I may not have won some award like, I don't know, a stupid little Nobel Prize or anything, but in my bowling league we have a saying: a Nobel Prize never rolled a 300.   Just what do I mean?   That's for me to know and you to find out.  But let me give you a little preview.  It involves a lot of Kaluha, moisturizer, and an magic 8-ball.  The. Ball. Never. Lies.  

TJ, hombre, I hear that you also know Spanish.     With more Latino players breaking into the NFL each year, who do you think is the best Latino player in NFL history? ¡Viva Los Broncos!

--M. Sanchez East Rutherford, New Jersey

M: Es una pregunta muy interesante.  My first answer would be a current player, Tony Gonzalez, tight-end for the Atlanta Falcons.  All of his years shredding the secondaries of AFC West opponents has guaranteed Gonzalez the Hall Of Fame on the first ballot (the same should be said for Shannon Sharpe, by the way).  999 receptions, 82 touchdowns, and almost 12,000 total yards receiving are amazing statistics.  And he put them up with (generally) average quarterbacks.  

But we can't forget Anthony Muñoz, perhaps the greatest left tackle to ever play the game.  As Eric Williams wrote:

During his 13-seasons of play, the durable Munoz started 164 of 168 games from 1980-1990 and even caught seven passes and scored four touchdowns on tackle eligible plays.

Munoz was the recipient of virtually every possible honor and was elected to 11 consecutive Pro Bowls and named All-Pro 11 straight times from 1981 through 1991. He was also named the NFL Offensive Lineman of the Year in 1981, 1987, and 1988 and the NFL Players Association Lineman of the Year in 1981, 1985, 1988 and 1989.

Let´s not forget that Muñoz was such a bad ass he also starred in the 1980s movie Borderline with non other than Charles "MF" Bronson.  

Muñoz set the standard for left tackles for generations to come.  Recent big-name tackles like Ryan Clady and Joe Thomas, can, in small part, thank Muñoz for their success (and contracts).

I didn´t realize the Broncos had any fans in East Rutherford, but I couldn´t agree more, ¡Viva Los Broncos! ¡Para siempre!

TJ, since you know women so well, I thought I would bring this up to you.  I think I finally figured it out. My wife is into numerology, and she said that if you take Orton (#8) and Quinn (#10) and added them together you get 18. Divide by that quarterback we traded (#6) and you get 3. Multiply by Brandstater (who is #3 and our 3rd string quarterback) you 9. Subtract out Simms (#2) and you get 7. Whoever McDaniels names as the starting quarterback for 2010 will be the reincarnation of John Elway. Do you think she's right?

--Ben Fashing, Pond Creek, Oklahoma

W: Ben,of course she's right!  Your wife is both a genius and, I'm guessing, very attractive when she pulls down those horn-rimmed glasses as she's reading  Mile High Report. Let's delve into some other numbers.   We can use numerology, which is a perfect science like astrology, to back up my assertion that Brady Quinn will be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos.  How do we know? Check this out, using the ancient numbering system of gematria:

ELWAY = 5+3+5+1+7= 21--> 2+1 =3

ORTON = 6+9+2+6+5 = 28--> 2+8 =0

QUINN = 8+3+9+5+5 = 30--> 3+0 = 3

Both Elway's last name and Quinn's last name are reduced to the number 3, which is the exact number of Super Bowl wins the Broncos will have when they win their next Super Bowl.   It's unequivocal, Ben.

And if you were wondering, I ran the last names of all of the Broncos potential first round draft picks, and if they trade up, the name Suh works like this:

SUH - 1+3+8=12-->1+2 = 3

Again we find the letter 3.  I'm not really saying anthing, I'm just saying, if the Broncos draft Suh, you'll have heard it here first.  And if they don't, I'm blaming your wife.  

Duderino, I'm almost in a drug-induced stupor with the thought that the Broncos will reach again in this year's draft as they did with Richard Quinn and Alphonso Smith last year.   I mean, what, did Josh McDaniels really think he could burglarize the draft that way?  Believe me, nobody gets away with that stuff.   Alright! Knock it off!...sorry, my question is, if they Broncos are 

R David: Lay off the weed, man. And I hope you are not reaching for my mail sack. But on to your question. JaMarcus Russell, Akili Smith, and the list goes on and on. The reason teams reach for a quarterback is because it's simply the most important position in the NFL. It's hard to find fault with the strategy when the QB is touching the ball (again, the ball, not my mail sack) on every play.The problem isn't with reaching for a QB. The problem is with the evaluation of the QB position itself. Teams just seem to be poor judges of how a QB will translate to the NFL. And with the lack of pro-style offenses in college football, the task gets harder and harder each year. Teams tend to focus on arm strength and scrambling ability at the expense of accuracy, leadership, and character. Bill Walsh focused on the latter, and I think he did alright for himself.

I personally wouldn't mind seeing the Broncos reach for a return specialist, however. If they got a guy like Trindon Holliday in the 4th round, it could be considered a reach. But I'd support the move. We've all seen what guys like Josh Cribbs can do for a team with respect to field position (the most underrated statistic in football). Holliday would make every punt return interesting. And he would shorten the field for Josh McDaniels.  

By the way, another return specialist that has a lot of intrigue is Brandon Banks with Kansas State.  Some mock drafters have him even going ahead of Holliday.  Banks is smaller than Taylor Mays' thigh, but his work on kickoffs is truly amazing.    But I see Holliday is the more durable of the two.  

If private workouts are of any importance, then Jacoby Ford might fit the need.  The Broncos have already brought Ford in.

And R. David, if you scream at me again, I'm going to have to bring in a Samoan to restrain you.  If you haven't heard, they kick ass.

Just so you know, I can again pet kittens.  I just want you to know that.  It took a lot of hours of Facebooking and listening to more illegal downloads of AFI.   I don't know if you deserve more attention from me, Mr. Johnson.  I may never write you.  I may keep all of this inside.  It's just easier.

Do you even care about me? 

--Serendipity, Cherry Creek, Colorado

Serendipity:  You've got to buck up, little bronco.  Hang in there.  I dig your style.  You've got that whole Emo thing going on.  But you've got to get over Jay Cutler, man.  You really do.  Perhaps you should buy a pussycat and name him Jay.  Or JC.  Or Jayendipity perhaps.  

Also, for every Emo boy there is an Emo girl.  Find her.  Now.    

Mile High Report blogger TJ "The Dude" Johnson posts The Dude's Mail Sack on Thursdays, in which he takes your questions about the state of the Denver Broncos. Got a burning question? Drop it into the The Dude's "Sack" or visit the homepage of Mile High Report.

Heya, TJ, I'm the biggest fan you've ever seen down here! I'm almost coming undone with excitement for this upcoming season.  I wonder sometimes if you are giving away too much critical information in your mail sack. Couldn't some other team use your sack to their advantage?  I'd certainly use your sack if I thought it useful.  Have you ever heard of another team getting unintended Broncos data from your sack and using it?

--Jenna J., BraSwell, Georgia

Jenna:  Hey, now, my sack is my own.  If someone is going to take advantage of my sack, it's most certainly going to be me.  I've never really thought of how my sack affects others--specifically, the Broncos.  I'm sure, given my stature in the blogging world (out of the basement of my parents),  Josh McDaniels has one of his assistants taking a look at my sack.

As to how all my information influences other teams, I would say greatly.  And I can prove it.  Last year I said the Broncos would draft Matt Stafford, and you know what?  The Lions took him at #1.  Then in 2008, I said the Broncos would draft Jake Long and the Dolphins took with the top pick.  So let me be the first to say, the Broncos are going to draft Sam Bradford this year.  You see if some other teams takes what I just wrote and uses it.  I'm betting they will.

But on the field?  I'm not sure I have too much influence.  Once I saw John Madden at a RV-rest stop, and standing in the urinal next to him, he told me that after the whistle starts, the sack matters little.  I tend to agree, and not just because a large man was dispensing football wisdom while relieving himself.

Dude, Jason Elam decided to retire a Bronco.  Is he a Hall-of-Famer?  If Elam was a 80's-Hair Band, who would he be?

--M. Anderson, Copenhagen, Denmark

M: Those are two questions, but I'm feeling pretty spry today.  Yes, I think Elam is a Hall-of-Famer.  His 63-yard field goal (sans boot) in 1998 and his ranking (5th) in all-time scoring should be enough.  But as Pat Bowlen said yesterday, it's almost impossible for a kicker to get into the Hall of Fame.   It's as impossible for a kicker to get into the Hall of Fame as it is for a Denver Bronco to get into the Hall of Fame.  Elam has both strikes against him, which means that if he gets into the Hall either the Raiders will have won another Super Bowl or hell will have frozen over.

As of today, Jan Stenerud  is the only kicker in the Hall.

I also agree with what Adam Vinateri said in 2008:

"I understand that the kicker and punter position is undervalued to other positions," he said, "but for me, any person who is good at their job and accumulates a lot of years and good statistics, those people are in their Halls of Fame in other sports, like basketball and baseball. I look at gentlemen like Gary Anderson and Morten Andersen, who have 20 years on the job and played into their 40s. They performed at a high level for a long period of time, staving off rookies and other guys coming in. You accumulate that many points and it sort of speaks for itself, because if you're not good, they're not going to keep you around. You can see a million reasons why they should be [in] and one or two why they're not, and that's because they're kickers or punters."

While not completely analogous, I see kickers a bit like closers in baseball.  They are coming in at the end of a game for a very specific purpose.  They are usually going to be the hero or the goat.  Their one kick or pitch determines the outcomes of only the most intense and closely contested games.  There is no greater pressure.

One could also make a legitimate argument that kickers are even more important than closers given that many kickers are influencing field position during a game through their kickoffs, thus having an even greater impact on the outcome of games.  If only more Hall of Fame voters understood the true impact of field position in football, perhaps we'd see more kickers in the Hall.  For a primer on this subject, you can always check a piece I wrote on Matt Prater earlier this year called Matt Prater is No Kathy Ireland.

Regarding Elam as a 80's-Hair Band, I'd have to go with the easy choice, Bon Jovi.  They were good for a long time and can still kick it, but retiring wouldn't be a bad idea.   Although I'm not ready for any Richie Sambora solo albums either.

Alright, TJ, put your money where your mouth is.  I want a real prediction.  Who are the Broncos drafting at #11? Remember, I'm coming back after the draft and making sure that everyone knows how bad you messed up. There is NO WAY a guy like you can accurately predict who the Broncos are going to take.  I suppose you are blogging right now from your parents' basement.  Give it up already.

--W. Paige, Denver, Colorado

W: First, I'm going to tell my mom you said that.  It just makes me feel better.   But guess what?  You are on, old man!  It's on!  I've come to accept that the Broncos aren't going to get my favorite player in the draft, Safety Eric Berry. And I've got to take McDaniels at his words when he recently suggested that Mario Haggan will be moving to ILB and Russ Hochstein to Center, in this little-picked-up story from Frank "I eat the Post for Breakfast" Schwab from the Colorado Springs Gazette:

"The Broncos opened up a couple starting positions when they released center Casey Wiegmann and linebacker Andra Davis. The Broncos could draft or still sign players at those positions, but McDaniels indicated the current plan is that Russ Hochstein is penciled in at center and Mario Haggan will replace Davis, with Ayers getting promoted to a full time role at outside linebacker. Haggan started on the outside last year."

I'm not the first to suggest that we are targeting Mike Iupati even if it's a reach at #11.  Ideally, the Giants will trade up from #15 so they can get McClain.  This way, the Broncos will ensure they get Iupati at #15.  And they'll add another late-round pick for the trouble.  And as MHR member aLuffabo has said, Iupati is Samoan.  He has great hair.  He kicks ass.

So there you have it.  Iupati will be a Bronco, although I wish it were Maurkice Pouncey  And Head and Shoulders will have a client in Denver. Mark it down.  Or just mark it zero!

--Bubba, Humboldt, California

Bubba:  If you haven't heard, JaMarcus Russell doesn't care what color of Ho Ho he is eating.  He eats them all. Given that he tipped the scales at almost 300 lbs. last week, I'm thinking that he may have swallowed Tom Cable, Randy Hanson, and a couple of stray cats as well.  It's sad that Donovan McNabb would rather play anywhere other than Oakland (see: Seymour, Richard), because it would be nice to see the Raiders make the division competitive once again (7 straight years with 11 losses is getting ridiculous).  However, something tells me that we still might see McNabb in the silver-and-black.  It's too bad really.  He probably wanted to end his career with a bang, not a black hole.  It's almost criminal that someone can still be traded to Oakland.

Speaking of crime, as a member of law enforcement, I think you'd stand with me and denounce the Raider-on-Raider violence we are seeing out there every Sunday as your offense continues to assault your defense.

Lebowski, Dez Bryant is toxic.  Did you hear about him forgetting his cleats at his Pro-Day?  And he showed up at Pacman's workout.  Can you believe this?   If the rumors are true, and he was late for games and for practice, why would we ever, in a million years, pick him in the draft?  Let him slide.  Make him earn his straight cash, homey. He deserves it.  I'm telling you, his shoulders are not broad.  Those shoulders that he has on his body, you couldn't put the earth on them.  No way, man.  No way. 

--Randall G. Moss, Boston, Massachusetts 

Randall:  I don't think the Broncos are drafting Bryant, but let's not get too carried away.  It's not like the guy smokes weed in the off-season, makes fun of plane crashes, or quits on his team when they are losing.  Someone is going to take Bryant.   But I agree, it won't be at pick #11.  But it will be at a pick high enough so that he doesn't have to write checks, homey.

TJ, I've been thinking about writing to you for a long time, and even last night I was unsure if your sack was the right place for me.  Even as I write these words, I'm regretting this.  But the truth is that I'm still in so much pain. So much grief.  I wrote all of this the other night in my LiveJournal, but it wasn't enough.  Ever since Josh McDaniels took Jay Cutler from my life, there has been a deep void.  Nothing can fill it.  There is no hope.   There is no tomorrow.  Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn.  They are not love.   I find myself sleeping with my Cutler jersey and nothing else.  But every night, it feels more and more like cold steel.  

When I first came to MHR, I registered under a beautiful screenname, but there was so much hatred and so little understanding here. I simply gave up. I just KNEW they hated Cutler and they hated me, too.   I could feel myself being made a scapegoat.  I'm tired of being persecuted by everyone at every possible moment. Even now, if I see a kitten walk up to me, I'm very suspicious of its motives.   I know it's just waiting to make a fool out of me.

And all I have now is this emptiness and My Chemical Romance, whose songs I have all downloaded illegally. This started after the trade.

--Serendipity, Cherry Creek, Colorado

Serendipity:  There is a guy.  He works at the Denver Post.  Goes by the name of Woody Paige.  I think you might find solace in writing to him regarding these important issues.

Give me a running back with the power of Walter Payton and the speed of Eric Dickerson.  Now you've got a guy who can take you to the promised land.  But, unfortunately, a guy like that only comes along every 50 years.   And we've already seen in our lifetime a guy named Bo Jackson.

--T J Johnson

In the last several weeks, I've become MHR's version of a big-bad-bangin'-cold bucket of water.  I've compared the draft to a crapshoot. I've compared it to blackjack.  I've even railed against drafting the most talented wide receiver this year, Dez Bryant, because he was late for practice, games, and most recently, forgot his cleats for his pro day. It's gotten to the point where I am sure that Jeremy Bolander, E.J. Ruiz, and Sayre Bedinger would rather me retreat to my statistical cave and churn out a few more articles on Expected Points Value.  In NFL fandom (not to be confused with fandago, hombre), the NFL draft has become second fiddle to only Tom Brady's girlfriend/fiancé/wife and the annual Oakland Raiders coaching change.  Better to leave the draft analysis to the professionals...and Mel Kiper, Jr.

It in in this spirit, I offer up a little olive branch to all those draft geeks in MHR-land.  I thought I would use statistics for good rather than evil.  In fact, by the time you finish reading this article, your significant other will be thanking me. I'll have saved you a good deal of time--perhaps enough time to clean out the garage this weekend.   That's becase I'm going to tell you how to draft a running back without ever again using Youtube, Google, Todd McShay, or your own brain. So, my fellow scarecrows, follow me after the jump and leave your brains at the door.  Raiders Fans, ignore that last sentence.  For you, it's redundant.

Continue reading this post »

Several weeks ago, I compared the draft to a crapshoot, in which luck was as important as skill in determining success in the NFL draft.  While I still believe this to be the case, I also believe there are teams that do gamble better than others. So maybe I should change my analogy to Blackjack.  Even though you might demonstrate more skill than the other guys, it doesn't necessarily mean you're going to win.  

Part of this change in perspective is due to a recent study by Pro Football Weekly (PFW).  In their 2010 Draft Guide, the magazine took at look at each team's drafts during the 5-year period of 2004-2008.  It looked at several benchmarks for success, but the benchmark that was the most interesting and useful was each team's breakdown for all 7 rounds of the draft in the following 3 categories:

     1) Percentage of Players Drafted On The Roster

     2) Percentage of Players Drafted Who Were Starters

     3) Percentage of Players Who Made At Least One Pro-Bowl

In my limited research, I added two other data points:

     4) Win-Loss Record For Each Team During this Period (2004-2008)

     5)  Average Draft Selection (all draft picks) For Each Team During this Period (2004-2008)

With these additional considerations, and if one believes PFW, one should be able to give a general overview of teams that have done a good job through the draft of filling their rosters, filling their starting lineups, developing draft picks into pro-bowlers, and lastly, translating these drafts into wins.  Additionally, we'll be able to see who's been doing it with less or more resources (high draft picks).    Finally, we'll see how our own Denver Broncos have faired against the rest of the league.  

So, which teams hit 21?  And do the Broncos always bust?   Bring your chips to the other side of the jump and let's find out (Raiders fans, leave your firearms at the door).

Continue reading this post »

TJ, I know I said last week that I thought Kyle Orton's neckbeard was sexy, but that's until we signed Brady Quinn. He's absolutely dreamy.  Have you seen his pecks?  His biceps?  Everyone wants to know, is he going to start in 2010?

--Charlie, Colorado Springs, Colorado

Charlie:  You 26-year-old aerobics instructors are so fickle.  You're lucky I only receive a few questions a week.  But, I do love me a good story, so absolutely.  If you think there is a reason for everything, then you've got to believe in Quinn. The guy grew up living and dying with the Browns.  He's well versed in the history of "The Drive" and "The Fumble." He knows that when it's all said and done, the Broncos will always beat the Browns. Always.  It's destiny.  Browns fans know this.  Broncos fans know this.  So we should accept fate.   In fact, when Quinn was introduced to the media earlier in the week, the first thing he said he remembered about the Broncos growing up were "the comebacks."

This is just another chapter in the Broncos-Browns saga.  The kid that was shunned by the team he grew up cheering for will now play for the team that he grew up cheering against.   The Quinn story can now come full circle. It's almost biblical.  

Then, there are all the strange coincidences.  Quinn has 5 letters in his last name.  So did Elway.  Bizarre.  You can't say the same about Griese, Plummer, Cutler and Horton (the 'h' is silent).   Also, if you multiply Quinn's number in college (10) by 3, you get 30.  If you multiply Orton's number in Denver (8) by 3, you get 24.  And what do you get if you subtract 24 from 30?  That's right, number 7.  Weird. 

Or McDaniels simply got a good back-up quarterback for the price of a 6th-rounder and a fullback who he had no plans to utilize.  You decide.

In truth, although Josh McDaniels denied reports last year that he had actually targeted Quinn before he traded for Orton, there were multiple sources that indicated otherwise. Apparently, that fire was still burning one year later.  We also know that McDaniels considers Charlie Weis, Quinn's college coach and the guy who taught McDaniels how to call plays, a "great friend and mentor."  So if you don't think the topic of Brady Quinn has ever come up in their conversations, you are kidding yourself.  And here is what Weis had to say about Quinn:

I don't think this guy has to go to a program and be groomed for a year. If there was ever a quarterback who was ready to go for the last two years it's him. He's got hammered in the last two years by me so he can take it by anybody. If there is a guy who would be ready to go after walking in that door, he fits the description."

Quinn says he didn't come to Denver to be a back-up quarterback.  I'm taking him at his word.  

Teeeeee Jaaaay, I know you are an insider and you are holding back. Give up the goods. Do you think John Elway is just keeping his mouth shut about the whole Denver quarterback situation because he is being a good soldier? Or have you spoken with him and does he tell you super secret things that he really thinks about Josh McDaniels?

--Nick, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Nick: You're correct. I have been holding out on you. Elway has potentially called me and it's my possible understanding that he might, on occasion, have an opinion on the QB situation. Or, there might be another reason. He has a life and isn't rushing to find a camera so the world will know his opinion about Josh McDaniels.

In those private conversation that I have with Elway (so private, in fact, they are inside my head), he tells me that he wasn't a fan of Brian Griese's play. Nor that of his own when he threw 3 interceptions in a game. So this could or could not mean that he is a fan of Kyle Orton. I'm not sure about his leanings towards Brady Quinn, although I'm sure he thinks Quinn is good-looking. We all do.

By the way, I think it's time we erect a statue outside of Invesco field of Elway. Every single team that I have ever seen does this. I don't care if Flyod Little is the reason the Broncos didn't leave Denver. I like bronzes. They are good for the economy. Michael Jordan has one.  And it pisses me off that Dan Marino has one and Elway doesn't.   In fact, let's put up two bronzes of Elway just to show Miami we mean business.  I really like bronzes.

Next time I talk to Elway, I'll ask him his opinion of Jordan (and bronzes) and get back to you.

Lebowski, you're my boy. Should we sign Terrell Owens? The guy is really cut, he's got a winning smile, and they rejected him for the latest season of Dancing With the Stars. He might be a good insurance policy in case Eddie Royal regresses again, and if nothing else, it would be cool to have T.O. and Baby T.O on the same team.

--T. E. Owens, Buffalo, New York

T E: Interesting proposal, but what happens if Baby TO and TO both throw temper tantrums in practice? Our punters and kickers will probably have to head down to Dick's Sports to buy some footballs.  Also, if you haven't heard, Josh McDaniels is just trying to win a bleeping game here.  A 36-year-old wide receiver isn't in the cards.  

William: That's a teeth-gnashing question.   Do you go with the guy Shanahan drafting at the end of the first round who had 4 career receptions or the guy he picked at 17 who has 3.5 career sacks?  Can I call it a wash?  From a monetary standpoint, even adjusted for present values, the Moss deal cost the Broncos more money.  But if I must choose, when it doubt, go with the guy that would win in a cage match.  Moss could take Nash, I'm quite sure, so I'd say Nash was the bigger bust.  Seriously, though, Moss is still playing and there's a chance, although small, he could still produce.  

How about Maurice Clarett? Using a 3rd round pick on a guy who never even saw the field might be even worse, although in Shanahan's defense, he did get Clarett to sign a terrible, incentive-laden contract.  

Dude, I like your style.  How about a limerick in honor of the departed Peyton Hillis?

--Samuel E., Los Angeles, California

Sam:  I couldn't have thought of a better idea myself.   For whatever reason, Hillis wasn't in the plans for Josh McDaniels.  I think he'll have a good chance to succeed in the west coast system they are installing in Cleveland. Alright, Peyton HIllis, this one's for you:

Peyton HIllis, we salute you

punishin' dudes through and through.

Your runs killin' DBs,

Droppin' em to their knees,

May fortune follow you anew!

"The process was really thorough. We took our time. It was important for me to get the right fit for our football team."

--Matt Millen, Former General Manager, Detroit Lions

Matt McGuire, over at Walter Football, is probably best known for his mock drafts.  But it's his blog that I enjoy more. Recently, he had a blog entry entitled, NFL Draft Picks Are Business Investments.   He wrote something that I think deserves a lot more attention:

If I gave you $4 million to invest, would you invest that money into a company that didn't care very much about what they were doing? Would you be confident about investing in a business that didn't care about customer service, their product, employee relations, employee performance and leadership?

I doubt you would - you might as well throw the $4 million into a fire.

But what if this company had a lot of upside? Would you still be willing to lose the $4 million if you could get a large return in a couple years? It's a massive risk.

How can a company that doesn't care become profitable? It's almost impossible for that to happen.

So why should we evaluate NFL Draft prospects any differently? In translation: How can an NFL player be successful if he has a very mediocre work ethic, doesn't love the game, doesn't take the process seriously, and is immature?

Like McGuire or not (he's not exactly McDaniels friendly), he is absolutely spot on with these comments.  Owners are not playing with Monopoly money.  These are real dollars that they stand to lose.

As fans, we sometimes forget that the NFL is a business--an entertainment business.  And in business (whether it's manufacturing or paying guys to prance around gingerly in black and silver on Sundays), investment returns matter.  So, as much as you might "bleed" predominantly orange and blue, as much hard-core passion as you might feel for the Broncos, as much as you might have cried when John Elway hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, Pat Bowlen still has to make a buck.  A lot of bucks in fact.  

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Mile High Report  blogger TJ "The Dude" Johnson posts The Dude's Mail Sack on Thursdays, in which he takes your questions about the state of the Denver Broncos.  Got a burning question?  Drop it into the The Dude's "Sack." or visit the homepage of Mile High Report.

Hey, TJ, just give me the stats! I've noticed that with the signings of Jamal Williams, Jarvis Green, and Justin Bannan, the Broncos are getting a little long in the tooth on the defensive line.   Are these guys really the answer?   I mean they are really really old.

---Mike, Norman, Oklahoma

Mike: Quit whining for Gerald McCoy already!  Bannan (age 30) stands the greatest chance, but you're right.  In terms of the NFL, this group is more seasoned than an Al Davis jumpsuit.  Josh McDaniels knows very well that in the games the Broncos lost last year, it was primarily the run defense that broke down.  Green is more situational, but both Bannan and Williams, if healthy, won't allow the kind of yards on the ground that you saw this year.   Here's a stat for you.  The Broncos were worst in the league in allowing 6.70 yard per carry off of left tackle.  You can bet Bannan, to whom the Broncos gave the biggest contract, will end up seeing some time there.  

In case you were wondering, defensive tackles generally begin declining after age 31 and defensive ends around the age of 30 (Bill Romanowski and Chuck Norris never decline), so the Broncos are taking some risk with these players.   But make no mistake, the Broncos just got better with these signings.   Starting Kenny Peterson (released yesterday) was not an option going into 2010.   

By the way, last year, after the Broncos signed so what seemed like 1,000 running backs in free agency.  The prevailing wisdom was that they would go defense in the draft.  Then they went out and drafted Knowshon Moreno, This shocked many people, including many of us here at MHR.   This year, they've signed several defensive linemen, and are expected to draft an offensive player like Dez Bryant or Mike Iupati.   Could we be looking at a defensive lineman like Dan Williams?

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In 2005, Cade Massey and Richard Thayer, two academics from Duke and the University of Chicago, authored a fascinating and statistically-heavy paper entitled The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft.   While the paper is dated, and while it has received its fair share of criticism and analysis itself, I think the most fascinating sentence from the entire 59-page paper is the biggest and most overlooked truth from the modern-day NFL:

Buying expensive players, even if they turn out to be great performers, imposes opportunity costs elsewhere on the roster.

More liberally put, spending too much money on just a few high-priced players is a recipe for losing.  That's because you've lost the "opportunity" to spread those cost across other quality players in other critical areas.    In free agency, this means doing what the Chicago Bears just did with Julius Peppers, or what the Washington Redskins did a year earlier with Albert Haynesworth.  Or what Al Davis does every year with every player. 

In the NFL draft it often means picking in the top of the draft over and over again, which continues to cost you a premium each year.  It also means crazily trading up.  Let's take a look at an example of each.  

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Christmas comes only once a year.  And Pete Carroll isn't donning a santa costume.

While we all might have believed last week that Brandon Marshall was worth a 1st and a 3rd round pick,  two things happened in the last two days that say otherwise:

1) The Denver Broncos themselves placed only a 1st round tender on Marshall

2) The Anquan Boldin trade

The Boldin trade, in particular, dealt what could have been a giant blow to the idea that the Broncos will be getting what we as fans hope is a fair value for the player known as The Beast.   

After the jump, we'll look at the Boldin deal, it's consequences for Marshall, and what both Seattle and Denver might be considering as they discuss what Bradon Marshall is worth.

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Christmas comes only once a year.  And Pete Carroll isn't donning a santa costume.

While we all might have believed last week that Brandon Marshall was worth a 1st and a 3rd round pick,  two things happened in the last two days that say otherwise:

1) The Denver Broncos themselves placed only a 1st round tender on Marshall

2) The Anquan Boldin trade

The Boldin trade, in particular, dealt what could have been a giant blow to the idea that the Broncos will be getting what we as fans hope is a fair value for the player known as The Beast.   

After the jump, we'll look at the Boldin deal, it's consequences for Marshall, and what both Seattle and Denver might be considering as they discuss what Bradon Marshall is worth.

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As was reported here at MHR last night, the Broncos are pursing Cleveland center Rex Hadnot.  They are scheduled to visit with the 7-year veteran today.

Hadnot would immediately make the Broncos bigger up front and would add more depth to the line of scrimmage, although I would project him as a starter next year.  At 6'2 and 320 lbs, he certainly fits the mold of the type of lineman that Josh McDaniels wants to bring to the Mile High City.  Hadnot started 6 games last year for the Browns.  But don't let this fool you.  He battled a knee injury for most of the first half of the season, which kept him out of the lineup, so he only took 297 total snaps.  When he returned, he rotated at right guard with Floyd Womack. 

Hadnot was a 6th-round draft pick by the Miami Dolphins in 2004.   He played his college ball at Houston.  This from the Cleveland Browns website:

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